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# The Counterfactual Prisoner's Dilemma
| **2026 Update - I've now produced a refined version of this** [**thought experiment**](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WisQvECYPGebryRPD/the-refined-counterfactual-prisoner-s-dilemma-an-attempt-to). **The Refined Counterfactual Prisoner's Dilemma:** Omega, a perfect predictor,... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sY2rHNcWdg94RiSSR/the-counterfactual-prisoner-s-dilemma |
# Old and New Saw Blades
Five years ago I bought a used Model 77 Skilsaw. I've used it for a [bunch](https://www.jefftk.com/p/adding-a-bathroom) of [house](https://www.jefftk.com/p/built-in-shelves) [projects](https://www.jefftk.com/p/bathroom-construction-framing), and it's very versatile. I noticed that it was start... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vwgtcfKLchK82pfD6/old-and-new-saw-blades |
# Templates and videos for doing annual and daily reviews
Many individuals and organisations in the rationality community do an "annual review" (a review of the past year and update of future plans).
In the past I couldn't find a ready made document to complete to undertake my own annual review. Alex Vermeer's [stuf... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iFW8yZ63w7ZFvRoxk/templates-and-videos-for-doing-annual-and-daily-reviews |
# Section 7: Foundations of Rational Agency
_This post is part of the sequence version of the Effective Altruism Foundation's [research agenda on Cooperation, Conflict, and Transformative Artificial Intelligence](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/p947tK8CoBbdpPtyK)._
### 7 Foundations of rational agency
We think that the... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sMhJsRfLXAg87EEqT/section-7-foundations-of-rational-agency |
# Pixel 3a Review
About a month ago I replaced my first-generation Pixel phone with a Pixel 3a, and the 3a is as close to my ideal as I've had:
* Top-quality camera
* Solid battery life
* Near-stock Android
* Fingerprint sensor
* Headphone jack
* Relatively cheap ($300)
Several years ago, phones got good... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cjvN3rfuw4T2Q4ipf/pixel-3a-review |
# The Towel Census: A Methodology for Identifying Orphaned Objects in Your Home
*Background: I live at Event Horizon, a rationalist house that for much of its history housed so many short-to-medium-term guests that many people thought of it as a rationalist hostel. We've developed a number of useful systems over the y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ML5Lu6YxYoCfsJ6q9/the-towel-census-a-methodology-for-identifying-orphaned |
# Understanding Machine Learning (II)
This is part 2 of a three part series on the fundamentals of Machine Learning as presented by [this book](https://www.amazon.com/Understanding-Machine-Learning-Theory-Algorithms/dp/1107057132). It builds heavily onto [part I](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z29etNPef6yvrPteK/under... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JAD4u5dRwFApC3qYF/understanding-machine-learning-ii |
# Can fear of the dark bias us more generally?
There was a long-lasting man-made sound outside my home last night. I couldn't come up with a good explanation for what the sound was or why it was outside my house. My brain naturally promoted the hypothesis that a psychopathic murderer was outside my house making the st... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zkjfzLCqJxdNKfTKJ/can-fear-of-the-dark-bias-us-more-generally |
# Conversation about whether LW Moderators should express individual opinions about mod policy - 2019/12/22
*Copying over some comments from a different thread so as to continue the conversation here where it's not off-topic.*
\[Some relevant context: [Speaking for myself (re: how the LW2.0 team communicates)](https:... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FWTPojEPpGA8H4wHK/conversation-about-whether-lw-moderators-should-express |
# Autoexperiments
Over the next year I want to try some low-intensity daily experiments to see if they have noticeable and positive effects: Things like cold showers, a gratitude journal, cutting sugar, etc. My working plan is to do one per month for a two-week stretch, to use the other two weeks of the month as the c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BP5ERKNQdmdb8au9y/autoexperiments |
# Humans Are Embedded Agents Too
Most models of agency (in game theory, decision theory, etc) implicitly assume that the agent is separate from the environment - there is a “Cartesian boundary” between agent and environment. The [embedded agency sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p7x32SEt43ZMC9r7r/embedded-agen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WJzsTmsDctYCCyMfy/humans-are-embedded-agents-too |
# Offset Norms
One of the responses to last week's post about [climate change](https://www.jefftk.com/p/should-we-still-fly) was asking whether, if you donate to the [AMF](https://www.givewell.org/charities/amf) or another charity that saves lives, should you buy carbon offsets for the estimated emissions that causes?... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TqJegvR4z8JMd7uJA/offset-norms |
# Might humans not be the most intelligent animals?
The idea that humans are the most intelligent animals on Earth appears patently obvious to a lot of people. And to a large extent, I agree with this intuition. Humans clearly dominate the world in technological innovation, control, communication, and coordination.
H... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XjuT9vgBfwXPxsdfN/might-humans-not-be-the-most-intelligent-animals |
# Funk-tunul's Legacy; Or, The Legend of the Extortion War
(A traditional folk tale of the _rashunuhlist_ people, as told by [Jessica Taylor](https://unstableontology.com/), and literarily and mathematically adapted by the present author.)
In the days of auld lang syne on Earth-that-was, there was a population of age... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XbXJZjwinkoQXu4db/funk-tunul-s-legacy-or-the-legend-of-the-extortion-war |
# Should I floss?
[Content note: This post seems to have ended up somewhere between a very long question and a very uncertain post, so I'm not sure where it belongs.]
I don't floss, and have never managed to maintain any interdental cleaning habit for more than a few weeks. Apart from enduring the standard admonition... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/My8Wit9Aa49qDKpab/should-i-floss |
# ESC Process Notes: Claim Evaluation vs. Syntheses
Forgive me if some of this is repetitive, I can’t remember what I’ve written in which draft and what’s actually been published, much less tell what’s actually novel. Eventually there will be a polished master post describing my overall note taking method and leaving ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jKbATmMLfqxSm2yMd/esc-process-notes-claim-evaluation-vs-syntheses |
# Another AI Winter?
Robin Hanson has been
[suggesting](https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-robin-hanson/)
recently that we've been experiencing an AI boom that's not too
different from prior booms.
At the recent [Foresight Vision
Weekend](https://foresight.org/vision-weekend-2019/), he predicted [not exact... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zihjMujStyktz64ie/another-ai-winter |
# 12020: a fine future for these holidays
To celebrate all the possibilities of humanity during these holidays, have a possible calendar of the year 12020 of the human era (link to full calendar [here](https://www.dropbox.com/s/sra7bk230nf2y9f/12020_Calendar.pdf?dl=1)).
Minor fact: in the Gregorian calendar, the days... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p72t4uwAzX864zuKK/12020-a-fine-future-for-these-holidays |
# Understanding Machine Learning (III)
This is the final part of a 3-part series on the fundamentals of Machine Learning as defined [by this book](https://www.amazon.com/Understanding-Machine-Learning-Theory-Algorithms/dp/1107057132) (although it will transition into a longer sequence about the remaining, more practic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z4hEMjzqE7kABfQrE/understanding-machine-learning-iii |
# Values Assimilation Premortem
In the past 3-4 years, I went through a prolonged and painful life crisis in which I systematically deconstructed my existing worldview and slowly moved away from Evangelical Christianity into something Rationalist or Rationalist-adjacent. In the past 4 months, I've started hanging arou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aXW8xAKTruWdzGSij/values-assimilation-premortem |
# [AN #78] Formalizing power and instrumental convergence, and the end-of-year AI safety charity comparison
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7CY29s2D6HJirqcF/an-78-formalizing-power-and-instrumental-convergence-and-the |
# New paper: (When) is Truth-telling Favored in AI debate?
*An introduction to a recent [paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.04266) by myself and Ryan Carey. Cross-posting from [Medium](https://medium.com/@RyanCarey/new-paper-when-is-truth-telling-favored-in-ai-debate-8f58f14562e5).*
----------------------
For some in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RQoSCs9SePDMLJvfz/new-paper-when-is-truth-telling-favored-in-ai-debate |
# Link: Does the following seem like a reasonable brief summary of the key disagreements regarding AI risk?
[This is a link to a question asked on the EA Forum by Aryeh Englander](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/HayWBGerpYFk3GsZR/brief-summary-of-key-disagreements-in-ai-risk). (Please post responses / discus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/m9JeFRgW4DtE3yiHC/link-does-the-following-seem-like-a-reasonable-brief-summary |
# What spiritual experiences have you had?
The [recent adversarial collaboration on spiritual experiences on Slate Star Codex](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/12/25/acc-how-much-significance-should-we-ascribe-to-spiritual-experiences/) includes this paragraph:
> It was also discovered that people in the United States... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WBo8r3nLG9vgr6SiN/what-spiritual-experiences-have-you-had |
# Firming Up Not-Lying Around Its Edge-Cases Is Less Broadly Useful Than One Might Initially Think
**Reply to**: [Meta-Honesty: Firming Up Honesty Around Its Edge-Cases](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xdwbX9pFEr7Pomaxv/meta-honesty-firming-up-honesty-around-its-edge-cases)
Eliezer Yudkowsky, listing advantages of a ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MN4NRkMw7ggt9587K/firming-up-not-lying-around-its-edge-cases-is-less-broadly |
# We need to revisit AI rewriting its source code
It feels like community discussion has largely abandoned the topic of AGI having the self-modifying property, which makes sense because there are a lot of more fundamental things to figure out.
But I think we should revisit the question at least in the context of narr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DccLoKXGTZdhKrEMb/we-need-to-revisit-ai-rewriting-its-source-code |
# More on polio and randomized clinical trials
My [post](https://rootsofprogress.org/polio-and-the-controversy-over-randomized-clinical-trials) and [Twitter thread](https://twitter.com/jasoncrawford/status/1208099349517012992) about the controversy over the 1954 polio vaccine trials generated many replies on Twitter, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AAHggsNhpJaFgWRkt/more-on-polio-and-randomized-clinical-trials |
# Critiquing "What failure looks like"
I find myself somewhat confused as to why I should find Part I of “[What failure looks like](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/HBxe6wdjxK239zajf/what-failure-looks-like)” (hereafter "WFLL1", like the [pastry](https://www.google.com/search?q=waffle&oq=waffle&aqs=chrome..69i57j0... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Q8Z8yoG4tBaowBHwk/critiquing-what-failure-looks-like |
# Meditation Retreat: Immoral Mazes Sequence Introduction
I just got home from a six day meditation retreat and began writing.
The catch is that I arrived at the retreat yesterday.
I knew going in that it was a high variance operation. All who had experience with such things warned us we would hate the first few day... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MYXmFLZcsQWA9X2r4/meditation-retreat-immoral-mazes-sequence-introduction |
# Has there been a "memetic collapse"?
I want to know if there has actually been a "memetic collapse" along the lines described [here](https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10155616782514228) and [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WQFioaudEH8R7fyhm/local-validity-as-a-key-to-sanity-and-civilization).
Does anyo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K9GEw3DfTz7Nop7ZM/has-there-been-a-memetic-collapse |
# Moloch Hasn’t Won
This post begins the Immoral Mazes sequence. [See introduction](https://thezvi.wordpress.com/2019/12/28/meditation-retreat-immoral-mazes-sequence-introduction/) for an overview of the plan. Before we get to the mazes, we need some background first.
**Meditations on Moloch**
Consider Scott Alexand... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ham9i5wf4JCexXnkN/moloch-hasn-t-won |
# How was your decade?
Hi everybody,
With the New Year coming up and next year being 2020, I think it's worth reflecting on the last 10 years. As you probably remember the last Sequences post came out towards the end of the decade. How have things gone for you since then? If you're willing to share, here's some thi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Swb3X8sFW52TzA89m/how-was-your-decade |
# Stupidity and Dishonesty Explain Each Other Away
The _explaining-away effect_ (or, collider bias; or, Berkson's paradox) is a statistical phenomenon in which statistically independent causes with a common effect become anticorrelated when conditioning on the effect.
In the language of [_d_-separation](https://en.wi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y4bkJTtG3s5d6v36k/stupidity-and-dishonesty-explain-each-other-away |
# Safe exploration and corrigibility
_EDIT: I now think this post is somewhat confusing and would recommend starting with my more recent post “[Exploring safe exploration](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/NBffcjqm2P4dNbjrE/exploring-safe-exploration).”_
Balancing exploration and exploitation is a classic problem ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/87Y7w73phjBxnPyPD/safe-exploration-and-corrigibility |
# What are the most exciting developments from non-Europe and/or non-Northern-Hemisphere?
My vague sense of "macrohistory of the world" is fairly Euro-centric, and Northern Hemisphere Centric. And I'm not sure how much of that is to with "well, for good or for ill Europe kinda took over the world and everything is ent... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgLErYWWXCyCyXY3T/what-are-the-most-exciting-developments-from-non-europe-and |
# Programmers Should Plan For Lower Pay
*Summary: we don't understand why programmers are paid so well. If you're a programmer, there's enough of a chance that this is temporary that it's worth explicitly planning for a future in which you're laid off and unable to find similarly high-paying work.*
Programmers are pa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7XTnz7S77hRzLbpDA/programmers-should-plan-for-lower-pay |
# Good goals for leveling up?
I'm new to LessWrong and am trying to level up and internalize techniques to improve my life. I also want to increase my connection to the community, but that's less important for this question. I'm setting some goals for next year and was thinking about how to encode these meta-goals int... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BpwPHjRy6HnJRCpvB/good-goals-for-leveling-up |
# Self and No-Self
*Epistemic Status: sometimes you hear a platitude and it seems like nonsense, and then it clicks and you get it, but don’t have the ability to express it in a way that would help anyone who doesn’t already get it. Other times, it clicks and you have a mechanistic model that you think can explain it ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dMeRKq6tXWqcNxujt/self-and-no-self |
# Perfect Competition
Previously in Immoral Mazes sequence: [Moloch Hasn’t Won](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/kNANcHLNtJt5qeuSS/p/ham9i5wf4JCexXnkN)
Perfect Competition
-------------------
In [Meditations on Moloch](https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/), Scott points out that perfect competitio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gECsXTQPBKda9rrGe/perfect-competition |
# Phage therapy in a post-antibiotics world
When Fleming discovered the first natural product antibiotic Penicillin in 1928, the discovery was groundbreaking for medicine. Antibiotics were a tool with brute force. Without knowing details about the illness from which a patient was suffering antibiotics allowed a doctor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GbpdQSiDYbJgKh3n3/phage-therapy-in-a-post-antibiotics-world |
# Judgment Day: Insights from 'Judgment in Managerial Decision Making'
_I found this book through the [CFAR reading list](https://www.rationality.org/resources/reading-list). Some content was previously posted on my [shortform feed](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dqSwccGTWyBgxrR58/turntrout-s-shortform-feed#a2qvAYke9... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MjZSdPEd94sp48EFC/judgment-day-insights-from-judgment-in-managerial-decision |
# Why is the mail so much better than the DMV?
One of the reasons why Europe has a much more all-encompassing welfare state than the USA is that in the US government services are poorly run. Whether it's [providing healthcare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veterans_Health_Administration#Veterans_Health_Administration_... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ntd6wtcvfy6TWXHBs/why-is-the-mail-so-much-better-than-the-dmv |
# CFAR's 2019 Fundraiser
[CFAR's 2019 fundraiser](https://rationality.org/fundraiser) is live, and runs through January 15! You can donate [here](https://rationality.org/donate).
We recently did an [AMA](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/96N8BT9tJvybLbn5z/we-run-the-center-for-applied-rationality-ama) here on LessWrong... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KZ45rtHfSbnKoaqmv/cfar-s-2019-fundraiser |
# Making decisions under moral uncertainty
_Cross-posted [to the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ex834aaANLhamLkvf/making-decisions-under-moral-uncertainty). Updated substantially since initial publication._
Overview/purpose of this sequence
---------------------------------
While working on an (... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dX7vNKg4vex5vxWCW/making-decisions-under-moral-uncertainty-1 |
# Speaking Truth to Power Is a Schelling Point
Consider a coalition that wants to build accurate shared world-models (maps that reflect the territory), and then use those models to inform decisions that achieve the coalition's goals.
However, suppose that some ways of improving models are [punished by the surrounding... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tCwresAuSvk867rzH/speaking-truth-to-power-is-a-schelling-point |
# Imperfect Competition
Previously in Sequence: [Moloch Hasn’t Won](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/kNANcHLNtJt5qeuSS/p/ham9i5wf4JCexXnkN), [Perfect Competition](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/kNANcHLNtJt5qeuSS/p/gECsXTQPBKda9rrGe)
This post looks at a few examples of imperfect competition to illustrate various ways in whic... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4NrmDPrCAnwM3uiyB/imperfect-competition |
# Looking for non-AI people to work on AGI risks
I'm worried about AGI safety, and I'm looking for non-AI people to worry with. Let me explain.
A lecture by futurist Anders Sandberg, online reading, and real-life discussions with my local Effective Altruist group, gave me as a non-AI person (33-yo physicist, engi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WsLyyFyCiw89kgQH4/looking-for-non-ai-people-to-work-on-agi-risks |
# human psycholinguists: a critical appraisal
(The title of this post is a joking homage to [one of Gary Marcus’ papers](https://arxiv.org/abs/1801.00631).)
I’ve discussed GPT-2 and BERT and other instances of the [Transformer architecture](https://nostalgebraist.tumblr.com/post/185326092369/the-transformer-explained... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZFtesgbY9XwtqqyZ5/human-psycholinguists-a-critical-appraisal |
# Folding Couch Monitor
I find working on a laptop to be pretty rough ergonomically. The only way for my wrists to be comfortable is if the laptop is flat on my lap, and keeping my wrists happy is [very important](https://www.jefftk.com/p/floor-mouse) to me. This means my neck is angled down at the screen, though, and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MjQaqMryxQ7jputig/folding-couch-monitor |
# Does Big Business Hate Your Family?
Previously in Sequence: [Moloch Hasn’t Won](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/kNANcHLNtJt5qeuSS/p/ham9i5wf4JCexXnkN), [Perfect Competition](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/kNANcHLNtJt5qeuSS/p/gECsXTQPBKda9rrGe), [Imperfect Competition](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/kNANcHLNtJt5qeuSS/p/4NrmDPr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/229FkbLrhat9JLhwQ/does-big-business-hate-your-family |
# BIDA Musician Booking
I'm going to be booking musicians for BIDA, at least through the end of the season (July), and I wanted to write up a bit about how I'm thinking about it.
I see two main goals in our booking:
* Book performers where the dancers are going to have a great time.
* Book performers who ar... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BFTc6jKvRFzqfm6qM/bida-musician-booking |
# 100 Ways To Live Better
[Cross-posted from Putanumonit](https://putanumonit.com/2019/12/30/100-ways-to-live-better/).
* * *
A couple of weeks ago [Venkatesh](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/about/) challenged his followers to brainstorm at least 100 tweets on a topic via live responses. Since I’m not an expert on anyth... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HJeD6XbMGEfcrx3mD/100-ways-to-live-better |
# Conversational Cultures: Combat vs Nurture (V2)
*You are viewing Version 2 of this post: a major revision written for the* [*LessWrong 2018 Review*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qXwmMkEBLL59NkvYR/the-lesswrong-2018-review)*. The original version published on 9th November 2018 can be viewed* [*here*](https://www.l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ExssKjAaXEEYcnzPd/conversational-cultures-combat-vs-nurture-v2 |
# ESC Process Notes: Detail-Focused Books
When I started doing [epistemic spot checks](https://acesounderglass.com/tag/epistemicspotcheck/), I would pick focal claims and work to verify them. That meant finding other sources and skimming them as quickly as possible to get their judgement on the particular claim. This ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ei57Ms7CbZ3TRpzRy/esc-process-notes-detail-focused-books |
# Circling as Cousin to Rationality
Often, I talk to people who are highly skeptical, systematic thinkers who are frustrated with the level of *inexplicable* interest in Circling ([previously discussed on LW](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aFyWFwGWBsP5DZbHF/circling)) among some rationalists. “Sure,” they might say, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jLwFCkNKMCFTCX7rL/circling-as-cousin-to-rationality |
# [AN #79]: Recursive reward modeling as an alignment technique integrated with deep RL
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWb... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EoY6P6mpz7ZozhAxm/an-79-recursive-reward-modeling-as-an-alignment-technique |
# Don't Double-Crux With Suicide Rock
Honest rational agents should never agree to disagree.
This idea is formalized in [Aumann's agreement theorem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aumann%27s_agreement_theorem) and its various extensions ([we can't foresee to disagree](https://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/01/we_cant_for... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jrLkMFd88b4FRMwC6/don-t-double-crux-with-suicide-rock |
# What will quantum computers be used for?
In the early days of electronic computers, machines like [ENIAC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ENIAC) were used for niche applications such as calculating ballistic trajectories and simulating nuclear explosions. These applications are very far removed from what computers are... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/523kTgaa439L7fihJ/what-will-quantum-computers-be-used-for |
# Since figuring out human values is hard, what about, say, monkey values?
So, human values are fragile, vague and possibly not even a well defined concept, yet figuring it out seems essential for an aligned AI. It seems reasonable that, faced with a hard problem, one would start instead with a simpler one that has so... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2kphKANEE2NA9JKoN/since-figuring-out-human-values-is-hard-what-about-say |
# Characterising utopia
When we consider how good the best possible future might be, it's tempting to focus on only a handful of dimensions of change. In transhumanist thinking, these dimensions tend to be characteristics of individuals: their happiness, longevity, intelligence, and so on. \[1\] This reflects the deep... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4rogm8hC4ynJGo2ca/characterising-utopia |
# Theories That Can Explain Everything
It's generally accepted here that theories are valuable to the extent that they provide testable predictions. Being falsifiable means that incorrect theories can be discarded and replaced with theories that better model reality (see [Making Beliefs Pay Rent](https://www.lesswrong... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DXxAJLhvTYEqJoCFH/theories-that-can-explain-everything |
# Making decisions when both morally and empirically uncertain
_Cross-posted [to the EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/LnZ2MwQEsenLczamX/what-to-do-when-both-morally-and-empirically-uncertain). For an epistemic status statement and an outline of the purpose of this sequence of posts, please see the t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eYiDjCNJrR3w3WcMM/making-decisions-when-both-morally-and-empirically-uncertain |
# Does GPT-2 Understand Anything?
Some people have expressed that “GPT-2 doesn’t understand anything about language or reality. It’s just huge statistics.” In at least two senses, this is true.
First, GPT-2 has no sensory organs. So when it talks about how things look or sound or feel and gets it right, it is just... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yu628W2EtdgmH8dq3/does-gpt-2-understand-anything-1 |
# [AN #80]: Why AI risk might be solved without additional intervention from longtermists
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Pw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QknPz9JQTQpGdaWDp/an-80-why-ai-risk-might-be-solved-without-additional |
# Normalization of Deviance
An important, ongoing part of the [rationalist project](https://www.lesswrong.com/) is to [build richer mental models](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B7P97C27rvHPz3s9B/gears-in-understanding) for [understanding](https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2012/05/31/the-art-of-refactored-perception/) the w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4nzfts9AYXy6htcQo/normalization-of-deviance |
# Dominic Cummings: "we’re hiring data scientists, project managers, policy experts, assorted weirdos"
Dominic Cummings (discussed previously on LW, most recently [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJ2ivxdgrYxnFLxNG/link-high-performance-government-dominic-cummings)) is a Senior Advisor to the new UK PM, Boris Joh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wi3RGfMAeyZe9wo3W/dominic-cummings-we-re-hiring-data-scientists-project |
# Becoming Unusually Truth-Oriented
This is a post on "the basics" -- the simplest moment-to-moment attitudes one can take to orient toward truth, without any special calculations such as Fermi estimates or remembering priors to avoid base-rate neglect. At the same time, it's something almost everyone can fruitfully w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8BX7Do5epLdWz7uyG/becoming-unusually-truth-oriented |
# Predictive coding & depression
**UPDATE MUCH LATER:** I no longer endorse this post. For my current take on depression, see [Valence series 5. “Valence Disorders” in Mental Health & Personality](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/txj4wigyjLNbcoZ9o/valence-series-5-valence-disorders-in-mental-health-and).
*Epistemic st... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3wmJRBjMHA4c9D4Cd/predictive-coding-and-depression |
# LW Tel Aviv: Global Poverty: An eye level view
[Ofir Reich](https://www.facebook.com/ofir.reich), former Data Scientist at Center for Effective Global Action (CEGA), will be speaking on "Global Poverty, an eye level view."
We meet at Google, 12th floor 98 Yigal Alon Street, Tel Aviv.
Summary:
What do people liv... | https://www.lesswrong.com/events/hK5PacfHcbv5WYQby/lw-tel-aviv-global-poverty-an-eye-level-view-1 |
# Excitement vs childishness
I've [heard](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_R5Z4_khNw&t=5540s) Robin Hanson and others make the argument that people are often biased towards the [fast takeoff](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/AI_takeoff) scenario because it's exciting to think about (or "sexy"). On the other hand, ther... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2CgFWnjPqj5Ljb89n/excitement-vs-childishness |
# What cognitive biases feel like from the inside
Building on the recent SSC post [Why Doctors Think They’re The Best](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/01/02/why-doctors-think-theyre-the-best/)...
| **What it feels like for me** | **How I see others who feel the same** |
| --- | --- |
| There is controversy on the sub... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ERWeEA8op6s6tYCKy/what-cognitive-biases-feel-like-from-the-inside |
# CFAR Participant Handbook now available to all
[Google Drive PDF](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UZYBtOJ3QZ7FTI_4eKjVzBSNUqC_Uba3/view)
Hey, guys—I wrote this, and CFAR has recently decided to make it publicly available. Much of it involved rewriting the original work of others, such as Anna Salamon, Kenzie Ashki... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z9cbwuevS9cqaR96h/cfar-participant-handbook-now-available-to-all |
# Illness anxiety disorder: how to become more rational?
_Disclaimer: When I think about dying I mostly think about cancer (I don't know much about other diseases). In the following, I'll be refering to "cancer" to point at deadly diseases where early detection is crucial._
\[**Epistemic status**: thinking out loud; ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/evsntFArq7QP7tFo7/illness-anxiety-disorder-how-to-become-more-rational |
# Meta-discussion from "Circling as Cousin to Rationality"
A lot of the discussion on [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jLwFCkNKMCFTCX7rL/circling-as-cousin-to-rationality) ended up being about LessWrong norms. I've moved that particular thread over to the comments here, and left a comment there pointing ove... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pC74aJyCRgns6atzu/meta-discussion-from-circling-as-cousin-to-rationality |
# Running and Optimizing
Two years ago I decided I was going to start [running between my house and the subway station](https://www.jefftk.com/p/running) each day on my commute, for a total of about five miles a week. Initially I was very interested in getting faster, and would time myself a couple days a week, trying... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p4WpQSnTYi4AJfyhS/running-and-optimizing |
# Underappreciated points about utility functions (of both sorts)
(**Edit** May 9th: I've gone and added a quick addendum to the end.)
In this post I'd basically like to collect some underappreciated points about utility functions that I've made in the comments of various places but which I thought were collecting in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DQ4pyHoAKpYutXwSr/underappreciated-points-about-utility-functions-of-both |
# Less Wrong Poetry Corner: Walter Raleigh's "The Lie"
**Followup to**: [Rationalist Poetry Fans, Unite!](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iNCg6mjw584r9BWZK/rationalist-poetry-fans-unite), [Act of Charity](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rwjv8bZfSuE9ZAigH/act-of-charity)
This is my favorite poem about _revealing infor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/trb9HPWFk8Gy9MBdN/less-wrong-poetry-corner-walter-raleigh-s-the-lie |
# Credit Cards for Giving
The standard advice for how to physically make a donation is something like: if you're donating less than ~$1,000 use a credit card, otherwise use a check or other method with lower fees. For example, GiveWell [writes](https://secure.givewell.org/):
> We recommend that gifts up to $1,000 be ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y3j8v74xPA4Cvduct/credit-cards-for-giving |
# Dissolving Confusion around Functional Decision Theory
Summary
=======
Functional Decision Theory (FDT), (see also [causal](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Causal_Decision_Theory), [evidential](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Evidential_Decision_Theory), [timeless](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Timeless_decision_... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xoQRz8tBvsznMXTkt/dissolving-confusion-around-functional-decision-theory |
# What is Life in an Immoral Maze?
Previously in sequence: [Moloch Hasn’t Won](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ham9i5wf4JCexXnkN/moloch-hasn-t-won), [Perfect Competition](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gECsXTQPBKda9rrGe/perfect-competition), [Imperfect Competition](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4NrmDPrCAnwM3uiyB/im... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sdFS5TaxGB8eAoGxY/what-is-life-in-an-immoral-maze |
# Homeostasis and “Root Causes” in Aging
Let’s start with a stylized fact: almost every cell type in the human body is removed and replaced on a regular basis. The frequency of this turnover [ranges](http://book.bionumbers.org/how-quickly-do-different-cells-in-the-body-replace-themselves/) from a few days (for many im... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d4DvqS88Q29ZaJAj3/homeostasis-and-root-causes-in-aging |
# UML V: Convex Learning Problems
(This is part five in a sequence on Machine Learning based on [this book](https://www.amazon.com/Understanding-Machine-Learning-Theory-Algorithms/dp/1107057132). Click [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z29etNPef6yvrPteK/understanding-machine-learning-i) for part 1.)
The first th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FnFsLRj4Qybii22ae/uml-v-convex-learning-problems |
# Clumping Solstice Singalongs in Groups of 2-4
_This post assumes you're familiar with [rationalist solstice](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jES7mcPvKpfmzMTgC/ritual-report-nyc-less-wrong-solstice-celebration). (It also assumes that while yes, ritual is something to be [epistemically careful about](https://www.lessw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7ZefJYDabSSRTGiMe/clumping-solstice-singalongs-in-groups-of-2-4 |
# What we Know vs. How we Know it?
[Two weeks ago](https://acesounderglass.com/2019/12/11/hows-that-epistemic-spot-check-project-coming/) I said:
> The other concept I’m playing with is that “what we know” is inextricable from “how we know it”. This is dangerously close to logical positivism, which I disagree with my... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MuZgFJkQhecK83vQM/what-we-know-vs-how-we-know-it |
# The Universe Doesn't Have to Play Nice
It's often helpful to think about the root cause of your disagreements with other people and it seems to me that one such cause is that I believe the universe doesn't have to play nice in terms of our ability to know anything, while other people do.
Here are some examples of w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PZGzZgP2NtgME8pSY/the-universe-doesn-t-have-to-play-nice |
# Open & Welcome Thread - January 2020
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it. (You can also make a [shortform post](http://www.lesslong.com/))
And, if you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5Fjt8z2rPSwZ9Xane/open-and-welcome-thread-january-2020 |
# Exploring safe exploration
_This post is an attempt at reformulating some of the points I wanted to make in “[Safe exploration and corrigibility](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/87Y7w73phjBxnPyPD/safe-exploration-and-corrigibility)” in a clearer way. This post is standalone and does not assume that post as back... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NBffcjqm2P4dNbjrE/exploring-safe-exploration |
# Definitions of Causal Abstraction: Reviewing Beckers & Halpern
_Author's Notes: This post is fairly technical, with little background and minimal examples; it is not recommended for general consumption. A general understanding of causal models is assumed. This post is probably most useful when read alongside the pap... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gJ76SLJAaKZrFCRTj/definitions-of-causal-abstraction-reviewing-beckers-and |
# AIRCS Workshop: How I failed to be recruited at MIRI.
This blog post is cross-posted from my [personal blog](http://www.milchior.fr/blog_en/index.php/post/2020/01/07/AIRCS-Workshop%3A-How-I-failed-to-be-recruited-at-MIRI.). It will touch on two related topics:
1) Why and how I applied to MIRI and failed to secure a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EYhWxoaCK2YSpTei9/aircs-workshop-how-i-failed-to-be-recruited-at-miri |
# Morality vs related concepts
[Cross-posted to the EA Forum.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qC3Pt9uMDG8KG6SeR/morality-vs-related-concepts)
How can you know I’m talking about morality ([aka](https://www.britannica.com/story/whats-the-difference-between-morality-and-ethics) ethics), rather than something ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dXT5G9xEAddac8H2J/morality-vs-related-concepts |
# How to Throw Away Information in Causal DAGs
When constructing a high-level abstract causal DAG from a low-level DAG, one operation which comes up quite often is throwing away information from a node. This post is about how to do that.
First, how do we throw away information from random variables in general? Sparkn... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zFGGHGfhYsGNnh7Kp/how-to-throw-away-information-in-causal-dags |
# Voting Phase of 2018 LW Review
For the past 1.5 months on LessWrong, we've been doing a major review of 2018 — looking back at old posts and asking which of them have stood the test of time.
The LessWrong 2018 Review has three major goals.
* First, it is an experiment in improving the LessWrong community's lon... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zLhSjwXHnTg9QBzqH/voting-phase-of-2018-lw-review |
# (Double-)Inverse Embedded Agency Problem
MIRI [has said a lot](https://intelligence.org/embedded-agency/) about the issue of embedded agency over the last year. However, I am yet to see them trying to make progress in what I see as the most promising areas.
How does one attack a problem that is new, complicated and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/itGmH2AknmjWyAwj8/double-inverse-embedded-agency-problem |
# Predictably Predictable Futures Talk: Using Expected Loss & Prediction Innovation for Long Term Benefits
I recently gave a talk at the [3rd Oxford Workshop on Global Priorities Research](
https://globalprioritiesinstitute.org/3rd-oxford-workshop-on-global-priorities-research/)
This covered a few topics:
1. How we c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SGM2chk4s7P2LDzNp/predictably-predictable-futures-talk-using-expected-loss-and |
# Stripping Away the Protections
Previously in sequence: [Moloch Hasn’t Won](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ham9i5wf4JCexXnkN/moloch-hasn-t-won), [Perfect Competition](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gECsXTQPBKda9rrGe/perfect-competition), [Imperfect Competition](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4NrmDPrCAnwM3uiyB/impe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R75HFkHYB9FxxvtrA/stripping-away-the-protections |
# [AN #81]: Universality as a potential solution to conceptual difficulties in intent alignment
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3kzFPA5uuaGZWg4PS/an-81-universality-as-a-potential-solution-to-conceptual |
# Subscripting Typographic Convention For Citations/Dates/Sources/Evidentials: A Proposal
> Reviving an old General Semantics proposal: borrowing from scientific notation and using subscripts like 'Gwern~2020~' for denoting sources (like citation, timing, or medium) might be a useful trick for clearer writing, compare... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/NkjPp86uuyunxDoB8/subscripting-typographic-convention-for-citations-dates |
# Are "superforecasters" a real phenomenon?
In [https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/02/04/book-review-superforecasting/,](https://slatestarcodex.com/2016/02/04/book-review-superforecasting/,) Scott writes:
> …okay, now we’re getting to a part I don’t understand. When I read Tetlock’s paper, all he says is that he took th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uoyn67q3HtB2ns2Yg/are-superforecasters-a-real-phenomenon |
# Old Airports
One thing I enjoy about aerial imagery is that you can see traces of how cities used to be. Tracing the spaces left behind by [old train lines](https://www.jefftk.com/p/medford-branch-railroad) is a lot of fun, but recently I've been looking at some airports:
Old [Saint-Pierre Airport](https://en.wikip... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mJgn7sZ5a3TJrY89Y/old-airports |
# [Personal Experiment] Training YouTube's Algorithm
I listen to YouTube music every day. I created a new Google account three weeks ago. I've watched nothing but music and dancing on it. Whenever it recommends a non-music non-dancing video I immediately click "Don't recommend channel"[^1].
[^1]: There are two ways t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TGAN2MZXAufvx8ksg/personal-experiment-training-youtube-s-algorithm |
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