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# Transcription of Eliezer's January 2010 video Q&A
Spurred by discussion of whether Luke's Q&A session should be on video or text-only, I volunteered to transcribe [Eliezer's Q&A videos](/lw/1lq/less_wrong_qa_with_eliezer_yudkowsky_video_answers/) from January 2010. I finished last night, much earlier than my estima... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YduZEfz8usGbJXN4x/transcription-of-eliezer-s-january-2010-video-q-and-a |
# Cryonics costs: given estimates are low
One of the sticking points for cryonics is how expensive it is. Unfortunately, the estimates on LW (eg. in [Normal Cryonics](/lw/1mc/normal_cryonics/)) are likely to be low as they are _current_ costs. This is starting to come to a head for Alcor, with Alcor's low growth rate ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dQWCDERoZjLLHWpys/cryonics-costs-given-estimates-are-low |
# Behavioral psychology and buying a warranty at Menards
I just returned from buying a multimeter at Menards and wanted to post my thoughts while they were still fresh. I hardly ever have the need to use a multimeter. In diagnosing my non-heating microwave, I fried my 2-3 year old meter (don't ask) and went out for a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8ZWcbJW8Fw6TA2JhK/behavioral-psychology-and-buying-a-warranty-at-menards |
# New Q&A by Nick Bostrom
Underground Q&A session with Nick Bostrom ([http://www.nickbostrom.com](http://www.nickbostrom.com/ "http://www.nickbostrom.com")) on existential risks and artificial intelligence with the Oxford Transhumanists (recorded 10 October 2011).
[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KQeijCRJSog](http://w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/A9BZ6wEQqFbacR2E2/new-q-and-a-by-nick-bostrom |
# Existential Risk
This is a "basics" article, intended for _introducing_ people to the concept of existential risk.
On September 26, 1983, Soviet officer Stanislav Petrov saved the world.
Three weeks earlier, Soviet interceptors had s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FGTgeweYNxmMBx4fz/existential-risk |
# Babyeater's dilemma
Imagine it's the future, and everything has gone according to plan. Humanity has worked out its own utility function, _f~0~_, and has worked out a strategy _S~0~_ to optimize it.
Humanity has also run a large number of simulations of how alien worlds evolve. It has determined that of those c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SBzFXzntLBMdxwByu/babyeater-s-dilemma |
# Rationality Dojo Examples?
Early on in my exposure to Less Wrong I encountered the metaphor of [Rationality as Martial Art](/lw/gn/the_martial_art_of_rationality/). I assumed at some point I would be a member of an active Rationality Dojo, regularly training and becoming progressively more formidable as I learned th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SwGhpL2uk3JzrkD2c/rationality-dojo-examples |
# Poker with Lennier
In J. Michael Straczynski's science fiction TV show _Babylon 5_, there's a character named Lennier. He's pretty Spock-like: he's a long-lived alien who avoids displaying emotion and feels superior to humans in intellect and wisdom. He's sworn to always speak the truth. In one episode, he and anoth... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hynHR5YBcNx62TsSb/poker-with-lennier |
# Open Research
This is a [TED talk](http://www.ted.com/talks/michael_nielsen_open_science_now.html) about open science. It starts with a description of a new math problem which is offered on a blog, and which eventually attracts enough mathematicians working on it to solve, not just the original problem, but a more ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N3a7GQuYAEirFHyni/open-research |
# Stanovich, 'The Robot's Rebellion' (mini-review)
The jacket text for Keith Stanovich's _[The Robot's Rebellion](http://www.amazon.com/Robots-Rebellion-Finding-Meaning-Darwin/dp/0226771253/)_ sums up the book well:
> The idea that we might be robots is no longer the stuff of science fiction; decades of research in e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PsvzbYxasvPPLBCZC/stanovich-the-robot-s-rebellion-mini-review |
# Poll results: LW probably doesn't cause akrasia
Test of: [Decision Fatigue, Rationality, and Akrasia](/r/discussion/lw/7ov/decision_fatigue_rationality_and_akrasia/).
Shortly before the Summit, Alexandros posted a [short discussion post](/r/discussion/lw/7ov/decision_fatigue_rationality_and_akrasia/) wondering whet... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/q3rBapm2TjQ6tx9Td/poll-results-lw-probably-doesn-t-cause-akrasia |
# New AI risks research institute at Oxford University
The [Oxford Martin Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology](http://www.futuretech.ox.ac.uk/) (aka FutureTech) is a new research department at Oxford University, roughly a spin-off of FHI, but _focusing_ on AI and nanotech risks and [differential technologica... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wTgS6J73XMjYCKGC7/new-ai-risks-research-institute-at-oxford-university |
# Is latent Toxoplasmosis worth doing something about?
_[Toxoplasmodi gondii](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toxoplasma_gondii)_ is a parasitic protozoa who's primary host is cats but also infects other mammals, primarily mice and rats but including humans, as part of its life cycle. Infection by _Toxoplasmodi gondii_ i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TnEjvi2bhTD3ocJie/is-latent-toxoplasmosis-worth-doing-something-about |
# Transcription and Summary of Nick Bostrom's Q&A
INTRO: From the [original posting by Stuart_Armstrong](/r/discussion/lw/8fw/new_qa_by_nick_bostrom/):
> Underground Q&A session with Nick Bostrom ([http://www.nickbostrom.com](http://www.nickbostrom.com/)) on existential risks and artificial intelligence with the Oxfo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eXHp9J4PXmQXzmBAj/transcription-and-summary-of-nick-bostrom-s-q-and-a |
# Three more classes coming from Stanford of interest here
[http://www.pgm-class.org/](http://www.pgm-class.org/) \- Probabilistic Graphical Models
[http://www.nlp-class.org/](http://www.nlp-class.org/) \- Natural Language Processing
[http://www.game-theory-class.org/](http://www.game-theory-class.org/) \- Self expl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iTskH8btZGTWbz2TG/three-more-classes-coming-from-stanford-of-interest-here |
# The curse of identity
> So what you probably mean is, "I intend to do school to improve my chances on the market". But this statement is still false, unless it is also true that "I intend to improve my chances on the market". Do you, in actual fact, intend to improve your chances on the market?
>
> I expect not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tAXrD8Y6hcJ8dt6Nt/the-curse-of-identity |
# Might I ask for some advice?
If you're expecting anything but a long post by an LW lurking college student asking sincerely for some advice, you should read [The Curse of Identity](/lw/8gv/the_curse_of_identity/ "The Curse of Identity"), the article that spurred this very post. It's a good read, regardless of my ad... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hj2yFSK7AMKrAp52k/might-i-ask-for-some-advice |
# OPERA Confirms: Neutrinos Travel Faster Than Light
> [New high-precision tests carried out by the OPERA collaboration in Italy broadly confirm its claim, made in September,](http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2011/11/faster-than-light-neutrinos-opera.html) to have detected neutrinos travelling at faster than ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MPq2heEvah2eA68Aw/opera-confirms-neutrinos-travel-faster-than-light |
# Comprehensive List of All Singularity Summit Talks and Video Links
Here is an index of all Singularity Summit speeches.
**Summit 2006**
* Todd Davies, Tyler Emerson, and Peter Thiel. [Introduction to the Singularity Summit](http://intelligence.org/media/introductiontothesingularitysummit).
* Ray Kurzweil. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GCz9FcMd2khoqiq39/comprehensive-list-of-all-singularity-summit-talks-and-video |
# Where do selfish values come from?
Human values seem to be at least partly selfish. While it would probably be a bad idea to build AIs that are selfish, ideas from AI design can perhaps shed some light on the nature of selfishness, which we need to understand if we are to understand human values. (How does selfishne... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Nz62ZurRkGPigAxMK/where-do-selfish-values-come-from |
# Drawing Less Wrong: Overview of Skills, and Relevance to Rationality
So, you've considered your past experiences and your motivations, and you've got a decent idea of the effort required of you: Six to eight hours of solid work before you start showing improvement, and about twenty hours total before you start to ex... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/shKSShMNtmjkgoBmQ/drawing-less-wrong-overview-of-skills-and-relevance-to |
# Don’t Apply the Principle of Charity to Yourself
In philosophy, the [Principle of Charity](http://philosophy.lander.edu/oriental/charity.html) is a technique in which you evaluate your opponent’s position as if it made the most amount of sense possible given the wording of the argument. That is, if you could interpr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DwtsDbtPCzr9ArcxH/don-t-apply-the-principle-of-charity-to-yourself |
# Connecting Your Beliefs (a call for help)
[](http://commonsenseatheism.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/bayesian-belief-network.jpg)A couple weeks after meeting me, [Will Newsome](/user/Will_Newsome/) gave me one of the best... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kHL6qX9eArmvNWY99/connecting-your-beliefs-a-call-for-help |
# Practical debiasing
Some of this post is an expansion of topics [covered by Lukeprog here](/lw/76x/is_rationality_teachable/ "Is Rationality Teachable")
**1\. Knowing about biases (doesn't stop you being biased)**
Imagine you had to teach a course that would help people to become less biased. What would yo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rrjCeQLopeHXicAZ6/practical-debiasing |
# Drawing Less Wrong: Observing Reality
[To draw a city, you must walk around that city and look at it.](https://www.lesserwrong.com/lw/gv/outside_the_laboratory/)
You can't sit in a room with the blinds closed and create a map and expect it to be accurate. You cannot draw what you cannot see. To draw things, you nee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3ve2pEZS2dBmxbZS2/drawing-less-wrong-observing-reality |
# Where do I most obviously still need to say "oops"?
Eliezer once told me:
> The most common error I see on Less Wrong is the failure to say "[Oops](/lw/i9/the_importance_of_saying_oops/)."
If there's one rationality skill I like to think I'm pretty good at, it's this one: the skill of saying "Oops."
In fact, I sa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BgpnbaJMthXjDeHcE/where-do-i-most-obviously-still-need-to-say-oops |
# Metaethics: Where I'm Headed
In an [earlier post](/lw/7cl/my_intentions_for_my_metaethics_sequence/), I explained that [Pluralistic Moral Reductionism](/lw/5u2/pluralistic_moral_reductionism/) finished my application of the basic lessons of the [first four sequences](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Sequences#Major_Se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tyGbG4XGkJzDmLTdh/metaethics-where-i-m-headed |
# Objections to Coherent Extrapolated Volition
> In poetic terms, our coherent extrapolated volition is our wish if we knew more, thought faster, were more the people we wished we were, had grown up farther together; where the extrapolation converges rather than diverges, where our wishes cohere rather than interfere;... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JhB9eqJDScjDNpWiS/objections-to-coherent-extrapolated-volition |
# How to prove anything with a review article
Thus the subtitle of [this blog posting](http://blogs.plos.org/obesitypanacea/2011/11/21/cigarettes-may-be-useful-for-distance-runners-or-how-to-prove-anything-with-a-review-article) at PLoS, referencing [this article](http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3001541/) ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hBTp6YZ5xqb5Cm8mZ/how-to-prove-anything-with-a-review-article |
# [Infographic] A reminder as to how far the rationality waterline can climb (at least, for the US).
. This post also heavily builds on Eliezer's post [The 5-Second Level](/lw/5kz/the_5second_level/). The five second level is the idea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xDiqYyqeqPo92PojS/5-second-level-case-study-value-of-information |
# Criticisms of intelligence explosion
On this page I will collect criticisms of (1) the claim that intelligence explosion is plausible, (2) the claim that intelligence explosion is likely to occur within the next 150 years, and (3) the claim that intelligence explosion would have a massive impact on civilization. Ple... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iGRpMWxhTmdoyA8Er/criticisms-of-intelligence-explosion |
# Value of Information: Four Examples
Value of Information (VoI) is a concept from [decision analysis](/lw/8xr/decision_analysis_sequence/): how much answering a question allows a decision-maker to improve its decision. Like opportunity cost, it's easy to define but often hard to internalize; and so instead of belabor... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vADtvr9iDeYsCDfxd/value-of-information-four-examples |
# King Under The Mountain: Adventure Log + Soundtrack
With the help of many dedicated Less Wrongers (players muflax, Karl, Charlie, and Emile; musicians Mike Blume and Alicorn, technical support Ari Rahikkala) we have successfully completed what is, as far as I know, the first actual Dungeons and Discourse adventure a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ep2Z42hYqj68QZz6w/king-under-the-mountain-adventure-log-soundtrack |
# Communicating rationality to the public: Julia Galef's "The Straw Vulcan"
Julia Galef's Skepticon IV talk, [The Straw Vulcan](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tLgNZ9aTEwc), is the best intro-to-rationality talk for the general public I've ever seen. Share the link with everyone you know!
**Update**: Below is the tran... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zuJmtSqt3TsnBTYyu/communicating-rationality-to-the-public-julia-galef-s-the |
# (Subjective Bayesianism vs. Frequentism) VS. Formalism
One of the core aims of the philosophy of probability is to explain the relationship between frequency and probability. The frequentist proposes identity as the relationship. This use of identity is highly dubious. We know how to check for identity between numb... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pbsH5ysDG3zKXDLCk/subjective-bayesianism-vs-frequentism-vs-formalism |
# 'Next post' and 'Previous post' links for posts in a sequence
Less Wrong would be [stickier](http://www.phoenixrealm.com/how-to-increase-your-website-stickiness/) if there were links at the bottom of each post in [The Sequences](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Sequences) to the next and previous posts in that sequenc... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fc4gkeC9YxivW264z/next-post-and-previous-post-links-for-posts-in-a-sequence |
# Video: Skepticon talks
The [talks](http://skepticon.org/schedule.php) from [Skepticon](/lw/8fn/skepticon_iv_meetup_planning/) [IV](/lw/8ho/meetup_skepticon_iv_meetup_saturday_night/) are being [posted to YouTube](http://www.youtube.com/user/HamboneProductions#p/u).
So far we have:
* [Richard Carrier on Bayes](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YQDHpozPcxWKTW7o6/video-skepticon-talks |
# Facing the Intelligence Explosion discussion page
I've created a new website for my ebook _[Facing the Intelligence Explosion](http://intelligenceexplosion.com/)_:
> Sometime this century, machines will surpass human levels of intelligence and ability, and the human era will be over. This will be the most important... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LEESyXYFuW7R3Q9G5/facing-the-intelligence-explosion-discussion-page |
# Welcome to LessWrong (For highschoolers)
As a continuation of the original [Welcome thread](/lw/2ku/welcome_to_less_wrong_2010/) (if you haven't gone there, go there fist) I think we need a separate introduction thread for highschoolers.
**Who:** As a demographic, I think that we can probably be characterized by:
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N9NKjw4bCXEixqmPa/welcome-to-lesswrong-for-highschoolers |
# [LINK] Scientists create mammalian H5N1
I'm woefully underinformed on this topic, but [this](http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2011/11/scientists-brace-for-media-storm.html) doesn't seem good at all:
> **ROTTERDAM, THE NETHERLANDS**—Locked up in the bowels of the medical faculty building here and accessible... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fHRgeoEWcWccJ6YNP/link-scientists-create-mammalian-h5n1 |
# Meta-reading recommendations
Despite a glut of reading recommendation engines, I still find that I rely on personal recommendations for 90% of the books that I read. Given that, I thought it might be useful to try to compile a list of prolific recommenders - people who provide a large number of reliable book recomme... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SMfD9CHKSqhWv7WwD/meta-reading-recommendations |
# Log-odds (or logits)
(I wrote this post for my own blog, and given the warm reception, I figured it would also be suitable for the LW audience. It contains some nicely formatted equations/tables in LaTeX, hence I've left it as a dropbox download.)
Logarithmic probabilities have appeared previously on LW [here](/lw/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Ltniokkr3qt7bzWw/log-odds-or-logits |
# Living Metaphorically
[](http://www.amazon.com/Metaphors-We-Live-George-Lakoff/dp/0226468011/)Part of the sequence: [Rationality and Philosophy](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationality_and_Philosophy)
In my [last post](/lw/7tz/... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nEA5vYzYS5zqrtQTm/living-metaphorically |
# LW Philosophers versus Analytics
By and large, I would bet money that the devoted, experienced, and properly _sequenced_ LWer, is a better philosopher than the average current philosophy majors concentrating in the analytic tradition. I say this because I have regular philosophical conversations with both population... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CXLSsWxekNewc4Pb9/lw-philosophers-versus-analytics |
# Large scale problems, cognitive biases, and existential risk
There's [a recent paper](http://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/releases/psp-ofp-shepherd.pdf)(PDF) which finds that people who don't know much about a problem are more inclined to not find out more about that problem. Moreover, the larger scale and more complex... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TpvvxdTzM2kH54cC9/large-scale-problems-cognitive-biases-and-existential-risk |
# [POLL] LessWrong group on YourMorals.org
Here's the news article on this: [http://www.yourmorals.org/blog/2011/11/how-to-use-groups-at-yourmorals-org/](http://www.yourmorals.org/blog/2011/11/how-to-use-groups-at-yourmorals-org/)
And here's the group that the LW community just created: [http://www.yourmorals.org/set... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/voZGmjLfzMMQqH8k8/poll-lesswrong-group-on-yourmorals-org |
# How rationality can make your life more awesome
_I'm currently working with Lukeprog on a crash course in rationality. It's essentially a streamlined version of the Sequences, but one area we want to beef up is the answer to the question, "Why learn about rationality?"_
_I've gone through all of the previous thread... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G6zs6Gnouji6itsxb/how-rationality-can-make-your-life-more-awesome |
# [Link]: GiveWell is aiming to have a new #1 charity by December
GiveWell, LessWrong's most cited organization for optimal philanthropy, is currently re-evaluating its charity rankings with the goal of naming a new #1 charity by December 2011. Essentially, VillageReach (the current top charity) has met all of its sh... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XXjHMjzp33TkcSqxw/link-givewell-is-aiming-to-have-a-new-1-charity-by-december |
# All free Stanford classes, continually updated
\[The Stanford-class.org scheme seems to be adding new courses every few days. Instead of a new post each time a new class is added, I commit to keeping this post stocked with links to all current course offerings until at least January 2012.\]
_Complex Systems_
[Mode... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XreWyjnnW8vuhhFbR/all-free-stanford-classes-continually-updated |
# [LINKS] New GiveWell Top Charities
As of [today](http://blog.givewell.org/2011/11/29/top-charities-for-holiday-season-2011-against-malaria-foundation-and-schistosomiasis-control-initiative/), GiveWell has two new [top charities](http://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities):
1\. [Against Malaria Foundation](http... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ShHhMmGjbCyFxHd6F/links-new-givewell-top-charities |
# Uncertainty
This is part of a [sequence on decision analysis](/lw/8xr/decision_analysis_sequence/).
Decision-making under certainty is pretty boring. You know exactly what each choice will do, and so you order the outcomes based on your preferences, and pick the action that leads to the best outcome.
Human decisio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AnbKBK236LtCdXSzj/uncertainty |
# What I think about you
> So, having heard Mike Li compare Jaynes to a thousand-year-old vampire, one question immediately popped into my mind:
>
> "Do you get the same sense off me?" I asked.
>
> \-\- Eliezer Yudkowsky, [The Level Above Mine](/lw/ua/the_level_above_mine/)
Most people need feedback in many areas. ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/skqGDwaCkiMygSJGz/what-i-think-about-you |
# Anti-Akrasia Tactics Discussion
You should probably read the [Anti-Akrasia Tactics Review](/lw/1sm/akrasia_tactics_review), if you haven't already. There's lots of useful stuff there, and if it works for you but you haven't read it...
You should totally go read it, implement it, and not come back to this thread unt... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E6JMPphi3nypGBXEY/anti-akrasia-tactics-discussion |
# Life Extension versus Replacement
Has anyone here ever addressed the question of why we should prefer
(1) Life Extension: Extend the life of an existing person 100 years
to
(2) Replacement: Create a new person who will live for 100 years?
I've seen some discussion of how the utility of potential people fits... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YEGXe6GRt3AwZHfzR/life-extension-versus-replacement |
# The Sword of Good: I need some help to translate it
I am currently translating Eliezer's ["The Sword of Good"](http://yudkowsky.net/other/fiction/the-sword-of-good) in French, and hit a rather thorny problem:
How do I translate the words _Equilibrium_ and _Balance_, given that both words are present in this fiction... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wduc5MSpvSKnsdcQi/the-sword-of-good-i-need-some-help-to-translate-it |
# [LINK] Extra Credits: The Singularity
The show _Extra Credits_ released a video today about the singularity. The show's audience is video gamers. Some of these gamers may not know about the singularity, but may become interested upon hearing about it.
The video itself is a very basic, non-technical introduction to... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6M6iafdwxSMjsurDg/link-extra-credits-the-singularity |
# Intuitive Explanation of Solomonoff Induction
**Update**: Alex Altair has now [finished this tutorial](/lw/dhg/an_intuitive_explanation_of_solomonoff_induction/)!
A while ago I began writing a Solomonoff Induction tutorial, but now it's one of those [Less Wrong articles I probably will never have time to write](/lw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p3b5T8YbijEXDAfmR/intuitive-explanation-of-solomonoff-induction |
# Hack Away at the Edges
See also: [Challenging the Difficult](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Challenging_the_Difficult) and [Tips and Tricks for Answering Hard Questions](/lw/1g4/tips_and_tricks_for_answering_hard_questions/).
From Michael Nielsen's _[Reinventing Discovery](http://www.amazon.com/Reinventing-Discover... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6bSHiD9TxsJwe2WqT/hack-away-at-the-edges |
# 5 Axioms of Decision Making
This is part of a [sequence on decision analysis](/lw/8xr/decision_analysis_sequence/); the first post is a primer on [Uncertainty](/lw/8lb/uncertainty/).
Decision analysis has two main parts: abstracting a real situation to math, and then cranking through the math to get an answer. We s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zFQQEkx4c6bxdshr4/5-axioms-of-decision-making |
# The Gift We Give Tomorrow, Spoken Word [Finished?]
For reasons that shall remain temporarily mysterious, I wanted a version of the [Gift We Give Tomorrow](/lw/sa/the_gift_we_give_to_tomorrow/) that was designed to be spoken, rather than read. In particular, spoken in a relatively short period of time. It's one of my... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bkRpALFAwJQuntHiF/the-gift-we-give-tomorrow-spoken-word-finished |
# Announcing the Quantified Health Prize
We are giving away a $5000 prize for well-researched, well-reasoned presentations that answer the **following question**:
**What are the best recommendations for what quantities adults (ages 20-60) should take the important dietary minerals in, and what are the costs and benef... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Y9iXchCMdYLsPNzZM/announcing-the-quantified-health-prize |
# Does Hyperbolic Discounting Really Exist?
[“Beware of WEIRD psychological samples”](/lw/17x/beware_of_weird_psychological_samples/) because results derived from them may reflect the specific sample more than any kind of generalized truth. And LessWrong has generalized [hyperbolic discounting](http://en.wikipedia.org... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MDSt7vSqFPZRzk26B/does-hyperbolic-discounting-really-exist |
# Scooby Doo and Secular Humanism [link]
[A great column by Chris Sims at the Comics Alliance](http://www.comicsalliance.com/2011/11/25/ask-chris-81-scooby-doo-and-secular-humanism).
Excerpt:
> Because that's the thing about Scooby-Doo: **The bad guys in every episode aren't monsters, they're _liars_**.
>
> I c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nA9smziFLJzJu88Qo/scooby-doo-and-secular-humanism-link |
# "Vulnerable Cyborgs: Learning to Live with our Dragons", Mark Coeckelbergh
["Vulnerable Cyborgs: Learning to Live with our Dragons"](http://jetpress.org/v22/coeckelbergh.htm), [Mark Coeckelbergh](http://users.belgacom.net/mark.coeckelbergh/index.htm) ([university](http://www.utwente.nl/gw/wijsb/organization/coeckelb... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eKFHNmCcmuogQifQN/vulnerable-cyborgs-learning-to-live-with-our-dragons-mark |
# Funnel plots: the study that didn't bark, or, visualizing regression to the null
[Marginal Revolution](http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/11/small-samples-mean-statistically-significant-results-should-usually-be-ignored.html) linked a post at Genomes Unzipped, ["Size matters, and other lessons fro... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RYA9uviAJBtn8hqkF/funnel-plots-the-study-that-didn-t-bark-or-visualizing |
# K-complexity of everyday things
What can we say about the K-complexity of a non-random string from our universe, e.g. the text of Finnegans Wake? It contains lots of patterns making it easy to compress using a regular archiver, but can we do much better than that?
On one hand, the laws of physics in our universe se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GuQngmjtLEtWbKE67/k-complexity-of-everyday-things |
# [LINK] How a Computer Game is Reinventing the Science of Expertise
[http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/12/01/how-a-computer-game-is-reinventing-the-science-of-expertise-video/](http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/2011/12/01/how-a-computer-game-is-reinventing-the-science-of-expertise-... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8L55udCRTN4NAJwC2/link-how-a-computer-game-is-reinventing-the-science-of |
# Drawing Less Wrong: Technical Skill
The ability to [observe](https://www.lesserwrong.com/lw/8i1/drawing_less_wrong_observing_reality/) is probably at least 2/3rds of what separates non-artists from amateur artists. But those 2/3rds are near-useless without the ability to move your pencil the way your eyes want to it... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bTDrKA8ySiCYWrWGE/drawing-less-wrong-technical-skill |
# How is your mind different from everyone else's?
Partially to help reduce [the typical mind fallacy](/lw/dr/generalizing_from_one_example/) and partially because I'm curious, I'm thinking about writing either an essay or a book with plenty of examples about ways by which human minds differ. From commonly known and o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZcFE6FgSQxFbCRnpa/how-is-your-mind-different-from-everyone-else-s |
# 2011 Survey Results
A big thank you to the 1090 people who took the second [Less Wrong Census/Survey](/lw/89a/2011_less_wrong_census_survey/).
Does this mean there are 1090 people who post on Less Wrong? Not necessarily. 165 people said they had zero karma, and 406 people skipped the karma question - I assume a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HAEPbGaMygJq8L59k/2011-survey-results |
# Seeking Collaborator for a Singularity Comic Book
I’m currently writing a book called Singularity Rising: Surviving and Thriving in a Smarter, Richer and More Dangerous World. The book will be published in about a year by [BenBella Books](http://www.benbellabooks.com/). This will be my third [published](http://ww... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZH29SAsjQqXfg7Xuq/seeking-collaborator-for-a-singularity-comic-book |
# [Link] How doctors die
I'm reposting [this](http://zocalopublicsquare.org/thepublicsquare/2011/11/30/how-doctors-die/read/nexus/) from HN's front page, because it brought up a non-cached thought on cryonics:
> The patient will get cut open, perforated with tubes, hooked up to machines, and assaulted with drugs. All... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3mo8YRCte8xcssh2Q/link-how-doctors-die |
# [Link] How to Dispel Your Illusions
The [topic](/lw/3gv/statistical_prediction_rules_outperform_expert/) and the problems associated with it are probably familiar to many of you already. But I think some may find this [review](http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2011/dec/22/how-dispel-your-illusions/?paginatio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sXK7sCB5c7jWJrAA2/link-how-to-dispel-your-illusions |
# Beyond the Reach of God, Abridged for Spoken Word
Previously, I posted a version of [The Gift We Give Tomorrow](/r/discussion/lw/8o6/the_gift_we_give_tomorrow_spoken_word_finished/) that was designed to be read aloud. It was significantly abridged, and some portions reworded to flow better from the tongue. I recentl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QPndJSv638SuKWTvN/beyond-the-reach-of-god-abridged-for-spoken-word |
# Mapping Fun Theory onto the challenges of ethical foie gras
_Foie gras,_ the delicacy made from the liver of a very fat goose (or sometimes duck), is believed to be unethical and is therefore frequently banned. For a long time, it was believed that the only way to properly fatten a goose is to continually force-fee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RicsRpTZ48jeM4ik3/mapping-fun-theory-onto-the-challenges-of-ethical-foie-gras |
# In the Pareto world, liars prosper
This is a simple picture proof to show that if there is any decision process that will find a Pareto outcome for two people, it must be that liars will prosper: there are some circumstances where you would come out ahead if you were to lie about your utility function.
Apart from P... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vSgaExrundWJJBDmZ/in-the-pareto-world-liars-prosper |
# AIXI and Existential Despair
It has been observed on Less Wrong that a physical, approximate implementation of AIXI is unable to reason about its own embedding in the universe, and therefore is apt to make certain mistakes: for example, it is likely to destroy itself for spare parts, and is unable to recognize itsel... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AfbY36m8TDYZBjHcu/aixi-and-existential-despair |
# Value evolution
Coherent extrapolated volition (CEV) asks what humans would want, if they knew more - if their values reached reflective equilibrium. (I don't want to deal with the problems of whether there are "human values" today; for the moment I'll consider the more-plausible idea that a single human who lived ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o5ppCyCfA6hxe8Gok/value-evolution |
# [German] Wo wohnt ihr?
**Disclaimer:** Since this article is directed at LessWrongers living in Germany, Austria or Switzerland it is written in German. It just asks where people live via asking them for their ZIP code, so it is only interesting for people there.
Der letzte Zensus von Yvain wurde etwas mehr als tau... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZSMWekxsArERHzbbR/german-wo-wohnt-ihr |
# Brain-Brain communication
A pair of conjoined twins, sharing a direct neural connection. There is evidence that the girls can sense what the other twin is sensing:
[http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/29/magazine/could-conjoined-twins-share-a-mind.html?pagewanted=all](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/29/magazine/could-con... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2HaD86wwMBpjh5Sgr/brain-brain-communication |
# Issues with the Litany of Gendlin
I think I have problems with this:
> _**Litany of Gendlin**_
>
> _
>
> What is true is already so.
> Owning up to it doesn't make it worse.
> Not being open about it doesn't make it go away.
>
> And because it's true, it is what is there to be interacted with.
> Anything u... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XjsbnhcekB2k4kTXy/issues-with-the-litany-of-gendlin |
# Handling Emotional Appeals
In a comment elsewhere, [BrandonReinhart](/user/BrandonReinhart/) asked:
> Why is it not acceptable to appeal to emotion while at the same time back it with well evidenced research? Or rather, why are we suspicious of the findings of those who appeal to emotion while at the same time unin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jRcN2bgqRd2E7oJ2w/handling-emotional-appeals |
# Video Q&A with Singularity Institute Executive Director
[HD Video link](http://vimeo.com/33456143).
[MP3 version](http://intelligence.org/upload/Luke%20Muehlhauser%20Q&A,%20December%202011.mp3).
Transcript below.
#### Intro
Hi everyone. I’m [Luke Muehlhauser](http://lukeprog.com/), the new Executive Director... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yGZHQYqWkLMbXy3z7/video-q-and-a-with-singularity-institute-executive-director |
# An akrasia case study
I just lost 3 weeks to a report that should have taken 2 days. My last job was an engineering research position; setting up an experiment, building prototypes, that sort of thing. After I left, I needed to write a report to brief my successor on what I'd done and what could go wrong, etc. I was... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xpLXck2nXbE4K3xdE/an-akrasia-case-study |
# Clarification of AI Reflection Problem
Consider an agent A, aware of its own embedding in some lawful universe, able to reason about itself and use that reasoning to inform action. By interacting with the world, A is able to modify itself or construct new agents, and using these abilities effectively is likely to b... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yTHYf5hLoSJNFXcYb/clarification-of-ai-reflection-problem |
# Why I write about the basics
In a thread on [A Rationalist's Tale](/lw/7dy/a_rationalists_tale/), lessdazed [wrote](/lw/7dy/a_rationalists_tale/4t1r):
> Being levels above in \[rationality\] means doing rationalist practice 101 much better than others, \[just like\] being a few levels above in fighting means execut... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SA2ZRgXJBDoGjGrjb/why-i-write-about-the-basics |
# Just the facts, ma'am!
“There’s something odd about the experience of talking to \[Singularity Institute researcher\] [Carl Shulman](/lw/7ob/timeline_of_carl_shulman_publications/),” I said.
“He never blinks?” said my friend.
“No. I mean: Yes, but that’s not what I was thinking of.”
“He speaks only facts.”
I pau... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7YLuXtKqWiybJAmeo/just-the-facts-ma-am |
# Why we need better science, example #6,281
[Avorn (2004)](http://www.amazon.com/Powerful-Medicines-Benefits-Risks-Prescription/dp/1400030781/) reports:
> In a former British colony, most healers believed the conventional wisdom that a distillation of fluids extracted from the urine of horses, if dried to a powder a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pnzg3qwCcNYRuLjNh/why-we-need-better-science-example-6-281 |
# A Brief Summary of Recent Happenings at the Singularity Institute
Posted at [http://singinst.org/blog/2011/12/11/a-brief-summary-of-recent-happenings-at-the-singularity-institute/](http://intelligence.org/blog/2011/12/11/a-brief-summary-of-recent-happenings-at-the-singularity-institute/)
The Singularity Summit was ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uJDpRFycS3Qp89cxz/a-brief-summary-of-recent-happenings-at-the-singularity |
# Where do you live? Meetup planners want to know
**Disclaimer:** English is not my mother's tongue so I am prone to make mistakes. Please correct and forgive me if I do.
In the recent LessWrong survey 1090 people responded. Sadly, information about the place of residence was not asked for but could have been very us... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HXJiAALt7DSnL46pp/where-do-you-live-meetup-planners-want-to-know |
# khan Academy - Rationality series?
Does the LW community think it might be a good idea to approach Khan Academy about including a series on Rationality, based on some of the LW sequences?
Khan Academy already has a great reputation as a centre for learning, and has large amounts of traffic going through it. Perhaps... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6kyKYzdnzLmH3bHNN/khan-academy-rationality-series |
# Mitt Romney's $10,000 bet
For those who don't follow politics, Mitt Romney offered to bet Rick Perry $10,000 that Perry had misquoted Romney. ([video](http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/video/mitt-romney-offers-rick-perry-10000-bet-spar-health-care-obama-politics-15130859))[](http://www.newser.com/story/135156/mitt-romn... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kMonMPSsNdbPBRZ6y/mitt-romney-s-usd10-000-bet |
# New 'landing page' website: Friendly-AI.com
I've created a new "landing page" on Friendly AI at [Friendly-AI.com](http://friendly-ai.com/). This is similar to [IntelligenceExplosion.com](http://intelligenceexplosion.com/), [Existential-Risk.org](http://www.existential-risk.org/), [Anthropic-Principle.com](http://www... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/u4nS5yXJYKzRuRyN8/new-landing-page-website-friendly-ai-com |
# [Link] A gentle video introduction to game theory
_In this article I invite LessWrong users to learn the very [basic math](/lw/l7/the_simple_math_of_everything/) of something that is useful to both our community's goal of making better thinkers as well as many of the unrelated discussions that we often have here. I... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jNR9WXKAawEfQw5JM/link-a-gentle-video-introduction-to-game-theory |
# Q&A with Richard Carrier on risks from AI
**\[[Click here to see a list of all interviews](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Interview_series_on_risks_from_AI)\]**
I am emailing experts in order to raise and estimate the academic awareness and perception of risks from AI.
> **Richard Carrier** is a world-renowned aut... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dCTvFYNoLo6cQXvyK/q-and-a-with-richard-carrier-on-risks-from-ai |
# Open Problems Related to the Singularity (draft 1)
"I've come to agree that [navigating the Singularity](http://facingthesingularity.com/) wisely is the most important thing humanity can do. I'm a researcher and I want to help. What do I work on?"
The Singularity Institute gets this question regularly, and we haven... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p9DdaSFzJHW9At3JM/open-problems-related-to-the-singularity-draft-1 |
# Examples of the Mind Projection Fallacy?
I suspect that achieving a clear mental picture of the sheer depth and breadth of the mind projection fallacy is a powerful mental tool. It's hard for me to state this in clearer terms, though, because I don't have a wide collection of good examples of the mind projection fal... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PM9D3iLFZWvkT6mMX/examples-of-the-mind-projection-fallacy |
# Tracking emotions with kinesthetic memory
I've been trying to manage my negative thoughts and I've stumbled on an interesting technique. In order to increase my mindfulness of my ruminations and my thoughts. I started making a check mark on a piece of paper when I had specific thought. I didn't feel like I had the e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fQ7fXwFzwpdaNgNcL/tracking-emotions-with-kinesthetic-memory |
# Building case-studies of akrasia
The idea for this came to me when reading [nyan_sandwich's "An akrasia case study."](/r/lesswrong/lw/8s9/an_akrasia_case_study/) I outlined the idea itself in [my comment in that thread.](/r/lesswrong/lw/8s9/an_akrasia_case_study/5ffm)
So here's the plan:
* In a comment reply to ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jZEsFXyhFyoTY6s3m/building-case-studies-of-akrasia |
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