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# Compressing Reality to Math
This is part of a [sequence on decision analysis](/lw/8xr/decision_analysis_sequence/) and follows [5 Axioms of Decision-Making](/lw/8m5/5_axioms_of_decision_making), which explains how to turn a well-formed problem into a solution. Here we discuss turning reality into a well-formed probl... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2FXtpdzx6uoNRZXjS/compressing-reality-to-math |
# How to label thoughts nonverbally
Introduction
---------------
Recently I've been attempting to put a damper on my [ruminations](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rumination_%28psychology%29). Sometimes they can get out of control and be somewhat self-sustaining. These negative, repetitive thoughts can be harmful and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YmPJdx6SYyTFYBPWL/how-to-label-thoughts-nonverbally |
# A discarded review of 'Godel, Escher Bach: an Eternal Golden Braid'
Recently I began to write a review of Hofstadter's _[Godel, Escher, Bach](http://www.amazon.com/G%C3%B6del-Escher-Bach-Eternal-Golden/dp/0465026567/)_, until I realized that the book defied summary more than all the other books I had previously said... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X9mvw4qRyLt7Gqonx/a-discarded-review-of-godel-escher-bach-an-eternal-golden |
# The rationalist's checklist
Doctor Peter Pronovost has managed to single-handedly reduce the infection rates in ICU facilities nationwide from numbers like fourteen percent or twenty percent to _zer_o. His solution is idiotically simple: a checklist. In a process as complex as ICU treatment, doctors perform chained ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tLR9YZHiNoDE2Czjh/the-rationalist-s-checklist |
# No one knows what Peano arithmetic doesn't know
**WARNING:** this post requires some knowledge of mathematical logic and computability theory.
I was just talking with Wei Dai and something came up that seems at once obvious and counterintuitive. Though if the argument is correct, I guess it will be old news to abou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PWP5j38tihSHkLsMc/no-one-knows-what-peano-arithmetic-doesn-t-know |
# [Transcript] Tyler Cowen on Stories
I was shocked, absolutely _shocked_, to find that [Tyler Cowen](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyler_Cowen)'s excellent TEDxMidAtlantic [talk](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RoEEDKwzNBw) on stories had not yet been transcribed. It generated a lot of discussion in the [thread about i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4kphivjxngJmEdWsN/transcript-tyler-cowen-on-stories |
# [Link] Belief in religion considered harmful?
I've recently run across [this](http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/2007/04/why-do-atheists-believe-in-religion.html) 2007 post on the blog Unqualified Reservations (archive best read [here](http://moldbuggery.blogspot.com/)). It is written by Mencious Moldbug, ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fMHq4djhTRBFedQyq/link-belief-in-religion-considered-harmful |
# A model of UDT with a halting oracle
This post requires some knowledge of mathematical logic and computability theory. The basic idea is due to Vladimir Nesov and me.
Let the universe be a computer program U that can make calls to a halting oracle. Let the agent be a subprogram A within U that can also make calls t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Bj244uWzDBXvE2N2S/a-model-of-udt-with-a-halting-oracle |
# Inverse p-zombies: the other direction in the Hard Problem of Consciousness
> 402\. "Nothing is so certain as that I possess consciousness." In that case, why shouldn't I let the matter rest? This certainty is like a mighty force whose point of application does not move, and so no work is accomplished by it.
>
> 40... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wzj6WkudtrXQFqL8e/inverse-p-zombies-the-other-direction-in-the-hard-problem-of |
# The Controls are Lying: A Note on the Memetic Hazards of Video Games [Link]
Chris Pruett writes [on the _Robot Invader_](http://robotinvader.com/blog/?p=164) blog:
> Good player handling code is often smoke and mirrors; the player presses buttons and sees a reasonable result, but in between those two operations a w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6fBasgNon5EHkEFHP/the-controls-are-lying-a-note-on-the-memetic-hazards-of |
# Q&A with Michael Littman on risks from AI
**\[[Click here to see a list of all interviews](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Interview_series_on_risks_from_AI)\]**
> [**Michael L. Littman**](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_L._Littman) is a computer scientist. He works mainly in reinforcement learning, but has don... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j5ComXKhingWjqSgA/q-and-a-with-michael-littman-on-risks-from-ai |
# Visual Map of US LW-ers
Earlier this month, Metus did a post asking for LW-ers locations. I thought it would even more useful to have this information in visual format, so I created a Google map. You can access it on the website below. Unfortunately, I am terrible at this post-writing interface, so I can't get the i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XJ4EQwhKstNnb3dje/visual-map-of-us-lw-ers |
# Is anyone else worried about SOPA? Trying to do anything about it?
Referring, of course, to the proposed U.S. legislation which could cause severe damage to the Internet—at least, that's what a lot of people are saying. See, e.g., this [Open Letter From Internet Engineers to the U.S. Congress](https://www.eff.org/d... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2YDNK4uwkc5ALZ8f4/is-anyone-else-worried-about-sopa-trying-to-do-anything |
# What is your rationality blind spot?
It has been noticed since the time immemorial that cognitive biases have a nasty tendency of being invisible to self (note the proverbial log in one's eye). Uncovering their own blind spot is probably the hardest task for an aspired rationalist. EY and others have devoted a numbe... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BiAN9MsXaqDf9ojZF/what-is-your-rationality-blind-spot |
# Ritual Report: NYC Less Wrong Solstice Celebration
*Note: Secular Solstice has evolved a bit since this original post (most noteably, it no longer has a major Lovecraft theme. *
Last Friday, the NYC Less Wrong community held their first Winter Solstice Celebration. Approximately twenty of us gathered for dinner and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jES7mcPvKpfmzMTgC/ritual-report-nyc-less-wrong-solstice-celebration |
# Talking to Children: A Pre-Holiday Guide
**Note**: This is based on anecdotal evidence, personal experience (I have worked with children for many years. It is my full-time job.) and "general knowledge" rather than scientific studies, though I welcome any relevant links on either side of the issue.
* * *
The holida... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6YjPdEvqGm2QiRqF5/talking-to-children-a-pre-holiday-guide |
# Measures, Risk, Death, and War
This is the fourth post of a [sequence on decision analysis](/lw/8xr/decision_analysis_sequence/), preceded by [Compressing Reality to Math](/lw/8uj/compressing_reality_to_math/). It touches on a wide variety of topics which didn't seem to work well as posts of their own, either becaus... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KgWticBMH2MxgdmYc/measures-risk-death-and-war |
# Decision Analysis Sequence
This is the introduction (conclusion) to my decision analysis sequence. It covers (much more quickly and less completely) what you would expect to see in a semester-long course on decision making. The posts are:
1. [**Uncertainty**](/lw/8lb/uncertainty/): the basics of treating uncertain... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iWH8Tnh4dBkDpCPws/decision-analysis-sequence |
# Some thoughts on AI, Philosophy, and Safety
I've spent some time over the last two weeks thinking about problems around FAI. I've committed some of these thoughts to writing and put them up [here](http://ordinaryideas.wordpress.com/).
There are about a dozen real posts and some scraps. I think some of this material... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/avrEL7t3Ttitrjdwy/some-thoughts-on-ai-philosophy-and-safety |
# The Magician: A Reductionist's Allegory
I like to do a lot of hobbies. One of those is doing magic tricks with a deck of cards. It, along with debate, are the only performance arts I enjoy personally preforming.
You know you have a great magic trick when you can do it without failing. But it also helps to impres... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fJyjCurkpT7QH9a6e/the-magician-a-reductionist-s-allegory |
# How to get the most out of the next year
We are not [automatically strategic](/lw/2p5/humans_are_not_automatically_strategic/). Since we [want](/lw/h8/tsuyoku_naritai_i_want_to_become_stronger/) to get stuff done, it only makes sense to [try harder](/lw/ui/use_the_try_harder_luke/)—and what better time than the star... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pAEYZ7MQEyDW3w4bv/how-to-get-the-most-out-of-the-next-year |
# Less Wrong Archives
The last straw was finding out that the manually-generated (why manual? I don't understand!) "[All Articles](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Less_Wrong/All_Articles)" article is more than a year out of date. The auto-generated [list](http://www.cs.auckland.ac.nz/~andwhay/postlist.html) of Eliezer'... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HMm7thMEXwuPxtXN2/less-wrong-archives |
# Spend Money on Ergonomics
_Warning: This is an applied rationality post, about rationality applied to a specific area of life, not a generalized rationality post._
[Ergonomics](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergonomics) is incredibly important. Sadly, so many of us in the techno-geek cluster ignore well-defined best ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Gy8fy7rTgTocNLKfT/spend-money-on-ergonomics |
# Holiday giving thread
Since this is the [season to respect the universe as a worthy foe](/lw/8x5/ritual_report_nyc_less_wrong_solstice_celebration/) and remember the challenges ahead of us, it felt appropriate that I should donate some money for a good cause. Then it occurred to me, why not use the opportunity to en... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iCKaM68LZKJ6spMAo/holiday-giving-thread |
# Prediction is hard, especially of medicine
> Summary: medical progress has been much slower than even recently predicted.
In the [February](http://www.alcor.org/cryonics/cryonics8802.txt) and [March](http://www.alcor.org/cryonics/cryonics8803.txt) 1988 issues of [_Cryonics_](http://www.alcor.org/magazine/), [Mike D... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qNxPRh5jzrLorak6B/prediction-is-hard-especially-of-medicine |
# Historical examples of flinching away
I'm looking for historical examples of "flinching away," so I can illustrate the concept to others and talk about [motivated cognition](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Motivated_cognition) and [leaving a line of retreat](/lw/o4/leave_a_line_of_retreat/) and so on.
The ideal exam... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YpXsZ4H67MaQsoyzz/historical-examples-of-flinching-away |
# [LINK] Lincoln on Rationality
[http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/24/a-fateful-christmas-meeting/](http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/24/a-fateful-christmas-meeting/)
> But Lincoln, like Chase, harbored doubts about taking a conciliatory approach. At the conclusion of what became a four-hour mee... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hTS9zp4Saz58z26HG/link-lincoln-on-rationality |
# Just another day in utopia
*(Reposted from discussion at commentator suggestion)*
Thinking of Eliezer's [fun theory](/lw/wv/prolegomena_to_a_theory_of_fun/) and the challenge of creating actual utopias where people would like to live, I tried to write a light utopia for my friends around Christmas, and thought it m... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sMsvcdxbK2Xqx8EHr/just-another-day-in-utopia |
# Merry Newtonmas LW. Have some rationalist music.
**Related to:** [So You've Changed Your Mind](/lw/5h8/so_youve_changed_your_mind/)
Basically [my band](http://www.squidrock.com/) did an album whose theme was "change your mind", largely inspired by [the LW sequence](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/How_To_Actually_Cha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/293SmHN2mozWzHYxG/merry-newtonmas-lw-have-some-rationalist-music |
# Summary of "The Straw Vulcan"
**Followup to: **[Communicating rationality to the public: Julia Galef's "The Straw Vulcan"](/lw/8ko/communicating_rationality_to_the_public_julia/)
I wrote a summary of Julia Galef's "The... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/z9hfbWhRrY2Pwwrgi/summary-of-the-straw-vulcan |
# Welcome to Less Wrong! (2012)
If you've recently joined the [Less Wrong community](/lw/1/about_less_wrong), please leave a comment here and introduce yourself. We'd love to know who you are, what you're doing, what you value, [how you came to identify as a rationalist](/lw/2/tell_your_rationalist_origin_story) or ho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jztohmx2anxGnp7g9/welcome-to-less-wrong-2012 |
# If You Were Brilliant When You Were Ten...
(If I do anything wrong here, please tell me. I don't know what I'm doing and would benefit from being told what I've got wrong, if anything. I've never made a top-level post here before.)
So, it seems like most people here are really smart. And a lot of us, I'm betting, w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iFae3EYaqDfSMsnfi/if-you-were-brilliant-when-you-were-ten |
# Philosophy that can be "taken seriously by computer scientists"
I've long held [CMU's philosophy department](http://www.hss.cmu.edu/philosophy/) in high regard. One of their leading lights, [Clark Glymour](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clark_Glymour), recently published a short [manifesto](http://choiceandinference.c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Stync46vwxGXRidNK/philosophy-that-can-be-taken-seriously-by-computer |
# What causes burnout?
When I try to figure out how to balance personal happiness with saving the world, I think a lot about burnout. If I make a major change - e.g. changing careers - what are the chances I'll burn out and become a lot less useful as a result?
I've never burned out, so I don't know where that edge ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MsEXP5WucW8trMYPJ/what-causes-burnout |
# Best of Rationality Quotes, 2011 Edition
I created a 2011 update to last year's Best of Rationality Quotes collection. ([Here is the original.](/lw/3cn/best_of_rationality_quotes_20092010/))
**[Best of Rationality Quotes 2011](http://people.mokk.bme.hu/%7Edaniel/rationality_quotes_2011/rq_only2011.html "Best of Rat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P8frBu55n5FkGPm9i/best-of-rationality-quotes-2011-edition |
# Eutopia is Scary - for the author
As Eliezer [makes the point](/lw/xl/eutopia_is_scary/) that real utopias will be scary - certainly more scary that my latest [attempt](/lw/8zs/just_another_day_in_utopia/). Mainly they will be scary because they'll be different, and humans don't like different, and it's vital that t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PQqKR3mCfK7Ny2jg2/eutopia-is-scary-for-the-author |
# For-Profit Rationality Training
As I've been reading through various articles and their comments on Less Wrong, I've noticed a theme that has appeared repeatedly: a frustration that we are not seeing more practical benefits from studying rationality. For example, Eliezer writes in [A Sense that More Is Possible](/lw... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P7PqtLBwzfxKXWMp9/for-profit-rationality-training |
# Less Wrong mentoring thread
I just had a 17-year-old Less Wronger e-mail me for advice regarding the [Thiel Fellowship](http://www.thielfellowship.org/) after reading my [application essay](/lw/3iq/being_rational_and_being_productive_similar_core/) from last year when I was 19. We had a long instant message conversa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cWFRxGamBQcWRBpvL/less-wrong-mentoring-thread |
# Negentropy Overrated?
[This](http://ordinaryideas.wordpress.com/2011/12/21/entropy-reversibility-and-uncomputation/) post may be interesting to some LWers.
In summary: it looks like our universe can support reversible computers which don't create entropy. Reversible computers can simulate irreversible computers, wi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2BJBZh7Rvxr6GaLQs/negentropy-overrated |
# Rationality of sometimes missing the point of the stated question, and of certain type of defensive reasoning
Imagine that you are being asked a question; a moral question involving an imaginary world. From the prior experience with people, you have learnt that people behave in a certain way; people are, for the mos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YCGoBNMGoseamBpRg/rationality-of-sometimes-missing-the-point-of-the-stated |
# Stupid Questions Open Thread
This is for anyone in the LessWrong community who has made at least some effort to read the sequences and follow along, but is still confused on some point, and is perhaps feeling a bit embarrassed. Here, newbies and not-so-newbies are free to ask very basic but still relevant questions ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8dijcs9BjxaXE2A9G/stupid-questions-open-thread |
# The Value (and Danger) of Ritual
_This is the second part of my Winter Solstice Ritual mini-sequence. The [introduction post is here](https://www.lesswrong.com/lw/8x5/ritual_report_nyc_less_wrong_solstice_celebration/)._
-
Ritual is an interesting phenomenon to me. It can be fun, beautiful, profound, useful... and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rijoxTpkSPXcTXRbN/the-value-and-danger-of-ritual |
# [LINK] "Prediction Audits" for Nate Silver, Dave Weigel
[Nate Silver](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/30/our-smartest-and-dumbest-columns-of-2011/) (the NYT quantitative political analyst) and [Dave Weigel](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2011/12/david_weigel_chooses_his_fou... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D9vBfQ2dXvCSkYgmL/link-prediction-audits-for-nate-silver-dave-weigel |
# Why some people seem to be proud of their ignorance?
Sometimes I run into people that have rather strong opinions on some topic, and it turns out that they are basing them on quite shallow and biased information. They are aware that their knowledge is quite limited compared to mine, and they admit that they don't wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nM2j2AFcbANdpJ9es/why-some-people-seem-to-be-proud-of-their-ignorance |
# The bias shield
A friend asked me to get her Bill O'Reilly's new book _Killing Lincoln_ for Christmas. I read its reviews on Amazon, and found several that said it wasn't as good as another book about the assassination, _Blood on the Moon_. This seemed like a believable conclusion to me. _Killing Lincoln_ has no ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4sTmZC9NPjo9REzFY/the-bias-shield |
# Evaporative cooling of group beliefs: current example
Background info: a splinter group, which broke off from the LDS ("Mormon") church ~100 years ago, refusing to give up polygamy, has been in the headlines over the last year; their leader was sentenced to life in prison for rape of teenage girls he took as plural ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Wyzy36ExMYHofu6HW/evaporative-cooling-of-group-beliefs-current-example |
# Meta analysis of Writing Therapy
Robin Hanson [recently mentioned "writing therapy"](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2011/12/easy-job-fix.html) as potentially having surprisingly large benefits. In the example he gives, recently unemployed engineers who write about their experience find jobs more quickly than those th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o7nRiBP9W8xR5E4v5/meta-analysis-of-writing-therapy |
# So You Want to Save the World
**This post is very out-of-date. See [MIRI's research page](http://intelligence.org/research/) for the current research agenda.**
So you want to save the world. As it turns out, the world cannot be sav... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5BJvusxdwNXYQ4L9L/so-you-want-to-save-the-world |
# New Year's Prediction Thread (2012)
Going through [expiring predictions](http://predictionbook.com/predictions/judged) reminded me. Just as we did for [2010](/lw/1la/new_years_predictions_thread/) and [2011](/lw/3kz/new_years_predictions_thread_2010/), it's time for LessWrong to make its beliefs pay rent and give ho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ApDNK9vrQPDe2oZCy/new-year-s-prediction-thread-2012 |
# How confident should we be?
What should a rationalist do about _confidence_? Should he lean harder towards
1. relentlessly psyching himself up to feel like he can do anything, _or_
2. having true beliefs about his abilities in all areas, coldly predicting his [likelihood](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confidence_i... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/itKvzPmatBDvtgXTZ/how-confident-should-we-be |
# Advice Request: Baconmas Website
**The Gist:** I started [this blog](http://baconmas.com/) to get people excited about a science-themed holiday. I want your suggestions before I advertise it to everyone I know!
Two years ago, I came up with the idea of celebrating Sir Francis Bacon's birthday (Jan. 22) as a festive... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h3xDc3FYTwRFJW2Y4/advice-request-baconmas-website |
# [META] Introduction thread attitudes and discussions
So, we have [three introduction threads](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Special_threads), and recently have had several contentious ones, like AspiringKnitter's [introduction as a theist](/lw/b9/welcome_to_less_wrong/5h82) or Bakkot's [introduction as a proponent ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GydByr7RBHZYzAqiv/meta-introduction-thread-attitudes-and-discussions |
# Describe your personal Mount Stupid
A little knowledge is a [dangerous thing](http://www.smbc-comics.com/index.php?db=comics&id=2475#comic "SMBC comic"), not sure what the official name for this particular cognitive bias is (feel free to enlighten me). Probably most of us can recognize that feeling of enlightenment ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8XZPFGLJJvftnc3bm/describe-your-personal-mount-stupid |
# HPMoR.com
[Josh's](http://www.elsewhere.org/journal/about/) mirror of _Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality_ has been redesigned by [Lightwave](/user/Lightwave/) (who also did [IntelligenceExplosion.com](http://intelligenceexplosion.com/), [Friendly-AI.com](http://friendly-ai.com/), and [lukeprog.com](http://... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QhwBg9TwFBtaBJ2Qo/hpmor-com |
# [META] 'Rational' vs 'Optimized'
A new arrival, [Kouran](/user/Kouran), recently challenged our conventional use of the label "rational" to describe various systems. The full thread is [here](/lw/90l/welcome_to_less_wrong_2012/5j57), and it doesn't summarize neatly, but he observes that we often use "rational" in th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SEzE9sFQ54MNpKw6f/meta-rational-vs-optimized |
# [LINK] Antidepressants: Bad Drugs... Or Bad Patients?
[Illuminating post](http://neuroskeptic.blogspot.com/2012/01/antidepressants-bad-drugs-or-bad.html) on _Neuroskeptic_:
Some Quotes:
> Why is it that modern trials of antidepressant drugs _increasingly show no benefit of the drugs over placebo_?.....
> They sug... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5yZeqewqDcQGkuToq/link-antidepressants-bad-drugs-or-bad-patients |
# Professional Patients: Fraud that ruins studies
I just read [Antidepressants: Bad Drugs... Or Bad Patients](http://neuroskeptic.blogspot.com/2012/01/antidepressants-bad-drugs-or-bad.html), linked by wallowinmaya in a [discussion post](/r/discussion/lw/96o/link_antidepressants_bad_drugs_or_bad_patients/) and based on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QMAv7ir5KbmFb3Xwg/professional-patients-fraud-that-ruins-studies |
# Quixey is hiring a writer
We've posted about jobs at [Quixey](http://www.quixey.com) before:
[Quixey - startup applying LW-style rationality - hiring engineers](/lw/7u8/quixey_startup_applying_lwstyle_rationality/)
Since then we've hired ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BMFhDcDiFvQud9mmD/quixey-is-hiring-a-writer |
# Giving: is money better than options?
When I started my new job at a startup about a year ago, I started getting about a third \[1\] of my pay in stock options. Being risk neutral in donating, I [decided](http://www.jefftk.com/news/2010-12-07.html) to spend my salary on me and donate any proceeds from my stock optio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AkpaCg57Sdutrjcso/giving-is-money-better-than-options |
# [Link] Evaluating experts on expertise
[https://ignoranceanduncertainty.wordpress.com/2011/08/11/expertise-on-expertise/](https://ignoranceanduncertainty.wordpress.com/2011/08/11/expertise-on-expertise/)
Nice article on meta-expertise, ie. the skill of figuring out which experts are actually experts. The author not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5HQkexWDdzMMMNMZ4/link-evaluating-experts-on-expertise |
# [POLL] Wisdom of the Crowd experiment
Many of you will be familiar with the "[Wisdom of the Crowd](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd)" \- a phenomenon where the average result of a large poll of people's estimates tends to be very accurate, even when most people make poor estimates. I've written a sho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D2Rzwu6a8syB9tHZT/poll-wisdom-of-the-crowd-experiment |
# Singularity Institute Executive Director Q&A #2
Previously: [Interview as a researcher](http://intelligence.org/blog/2011/09/15/interview-with-new-singularity-institute-research-fellow-luke-muehlhuaser-september-2011/), [Q&A #1](/lw/8s6/video_qa_with_singularity_institute_executive/)
This is my second Q&A as Execut... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DWDA33qGTMX9ZJejp/singularity-institute-executive-director-q-and-a-2 |
# Explained: Gödel's theorem and the Banach-Tarski Paradox
I want to share the following explanations that I came across recently and which I enjoyed very much. I can't tell and don't suspect that they come close to an understanding of the original concepts but that they are so easy to grasp that it is worth the time ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/B6i6XuW7kuxmjC4Zr/explained-goedel-s-theorem-and-the-banach-tarski-paradox |
# More intuitive explanations!
The post on two easy to grasp explanations on [Gödel's theorem and the Banach-Tarski paradox](/r/discussion/lw/98a/explained_g%C3%B6dels_theorem_and_the_banachtarski/) made me think of other explanations that I found easy or insightful and that I could share them as well.
1) Here is a n... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hDk2reWmo5GuadS3e/more-intuitive-explanations |
# Less wrong has a fitocracy group (invites)
Fitocracy is a fitness gamification social site for logging and tracking workouts. It has an RPG like system with quests and leveling up. It makes it very easy to make public commitments to a workout plan and provide each other with motivation and advice.
I shouldn't rea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uiv6zEEBBgB2Sj8p8/less-wrong-has-a-fitocracy-group-invites |
# What Curiosity Looks Like
See also: [Twelve Virtues of Rationality](http://yudkowsky.net/rational/virtues), [The Meditation on Curiosity](/lw/jz/the_meditation_on_curiosity/), [Use Curiosity](/lw/4ku/use_curiosity/)
What would it look like if someone was _truly curious_ — if they _actually wanted true beliefs_? Not... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3oYaLja5h8qL5adDn/what-curiosity-looks-like |
# Non-theist cinema?
There isn't much in the way of explicitly atheist cinema* -- that is, movies that contain the explicit or implicit message that religion is nothing but superstition, and where this point itself is a central part of the story. The only popular films that jump to mind here are [The Invention of Lyin... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HBBKH5jNt6PWb3ZsD/non-theist-cinema |
# Q&A with experts on risks from AI #1
**\[[Click here to see a list of all interviews](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Interview_series_on_risks_from_AI)\]**
### **Brandon Rohrer**
Sandia National Laboratories
Cited by 536
**Education**
PhD, Mechanical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2002.
... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/okmpRuKjhG9dvDh3Z/q-and-a-with-experts-on-risks-from-ai-1 |
# [Transcript] Richard Feynman on Why Questions
I thought [this video](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMFPe-DwULM) was a _really_ good [question dissolving](/lw/of/dissolving_the_question/) by Richard Feynman. But it's in 240p! Nobody likes watching 240p videos. So I transcribed it. (_Edit_: That was in jest. The real... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/W9rJv26sxs4g2B9bL/transcript-richard-feynman-on-why-questions |
# The Ethical Status of Non-human Animals
There's been some discussion on this site about vegetarianism previously, although less than I expected. It's a complicated topic, so I want to focus on a critical sub-issue: within a consequentialist/utilitarian framework, what should be the status of non-human animals? Do on... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ikQArh7yRE47bsokR/the-ethical-status-of-non-human-animals |
# [Link] A Bayes' Theorem Visualization
A while ago when Bret Victor's amazing article [Up and Down the Ladder of Abstraction](/lw/828/link_awesome_interactive_visualization_article/) was being discussed, someone mentioned that they'd like to see one made for Bayes' Theorem. I've just completed version 1.0 of my "Baye... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/caFY2EGfhdDANuiri/link-a-bayes-theorem-visualization |
# Dead Child Currency
From Yvain's 'proposal' to [measure money in dead children](http://www.raikoth.net/deadchild.html):
> According to Population Services International, a respected charity research group, it costs [between $650 and $1000](http://www.givewell.net/PSI) \[1\] to save one child's life through charity.... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6cRhG6PKeASdNHqxD/dead-child-currency |
# Q&A with experts on risks from AI #2
**\[[Click here to see a list of all interviews](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Interview_series_on_risks_from_AI)\]**
I am emailing experts in order to raise and estimate the academic awareness and perception of risks from AI.
(Note: I am also asking _Reinforcement Learning / ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xoxZdRtpyRnXmhher/q-and-a-with-experts-on-risks-from-ai-2 |
# Introducing Leverage Research
Geoff Anders asked me to post this introduction to Leverage Research. Several friends of the Singularity Institute are now with Leverage Research, and we have overlapping goals.
> Hello Less Wrong! I'm Geoff Anders, founder of [Leverage Research](http://www.leverageresearch.org). Many ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/969wcdD3weuCscvoJ/introducing-leverage-research |
# On Leverage Research's plan for an optimal world
[The plan](http://www.leverageresearch.org/tiki-index.php?page=Our+Current+Plan) currently revolves around using Connection Theory, a new psychological theory, to design "beneficial contagious ideologies", the spread of which will lead to the existence of "an enormous... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4xum2CuYMMRq8rgsW/on-leverage-research-s-plan-for-an-optimal-world |
# Designing Ritual
This is the third post in my ritual mini-sequence. My first article was an [](https://www.lesswrong.com/lw/8x5/ritual_report_nyc_less_wrong_solstice_celebration) [emotional rallying cry around of the idea of a rational-(trans)humanist culture](https://www.lesswrong.com/lw/8x5/ritual_report_nyc_less_... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GEQyCqgu5Yhi5dTdb/designing-ritual |
# The Gift I Give Tomorrow
This is the final post in my Ritual Mini-Sequence. Previous posts include the [Introduction](http://www.google.com/url?q=http%3A%2F%2Flesswrong.com%2Flw%2F8x5%2Fritual_report_nyc_less_wrong_solstice_celebration&sa=D&sntz=1&usg=AFQjCNFmgqVa-yXy3Ls21q3D8aFgoTYl6g), a discussion on the [Value (... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rhj3BZLpC69m9mr4B/the-gift-i-give-tomorrow |
# Long-Term Technological Forecasting
When will [AGI](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strong_ai) be created? When will [WBE](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading) be possible? It would be nice to have somewhat reliable methods of long-term technological forecasting. Do we? Here's my own brief overview of the subje... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eXdGr2LeHYEgMh9qX/long-term-technological-forecasting |
# Utopian hope versus reality
I've seen an interesting variety of utopian hopes expressed recently. Raemon's ["Ritual" sequence of posts](/lw/8x5/ritual_report_nyc_less_wrong_solstice_celebration) is working to affirm the viability of LW's rationalist-immortalist utopianism, not just in the midst of an indifferent uni... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3EdLvRoTp3i2E7uHy/utopian-hope-versus-reality |
# On accepting an argument if you have limited computational power.
It would seem rational to accept any argument that is not fallacious; but this leads to consideration of problems such as [Pascal's mugging](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Pascal%27s_mugging) and other exploits.
I've had a realization of a subconscio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J4DbTRwtxp37b6haQ/on-accepting-an-argument-if-you-have-limited-computational |
# Ideas for rationalist meetup topics
(From Zvi Mowshowitz, leader of the New York group, and based on his experience)
Category 1: Discussions - The Base
A: Less Wrong topics. Usually recent posts. Often big hits.
B: Rationalist group planning and organization. Meta-topics. Dealing with group issues on occasio... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZPoPcQ2aB2AhwdKxf/ideas-for-rationalist-meetup-topics |
# AI Challenge: Ants - Post Mortem
Late last year a LessWrong team was being mooted for the Google AI challenge ([http://aichallenge.org/](http://aichallenge.org/); [http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/8ay/ai\_challenge\_ants/](http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/8ay/ai_challenge_ants/)). Sadly, after a brief burst... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ELCsD7MYaqnkarPBi/ai-challenge-ants-post-mortem |
# Q&A with experts on risks from AI #3
**\[[Click here to see a list of all interviews](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Interview_series_on_risks_from_AI)\]**
I am emailing experts in order to raise and estimate the academic awareness and perception of risks from AI.
**Dr. Pei Wang** is trying to build general-purpos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jv9kyH5WvqiXifsWJ/q-and-a-with-experts-on-risks-from-ai-3 |
# The Noddy problem
An episode of the Noddy animated series has the following plot.
Noddy needs to go pick up Martha Monkey at the station. But it's such a nice, sunny day that he would prefer to play around outside. He gets an idea to solve this dilemma. He casts a duplication spell on himself and his car and tells ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tTBXKzx8DfmWQ5nkt/the-noddy-problem |
# Can the Chain Still Hold You?
[Robert Sapolsky](http://www.radiolab.org/2009/oct/19/):
> Baboons... _literally_ have been the textbook example of a highly aggressive, male-dominated, hierarchical society. Because these animals hunt, because they live in these aggressive troupes on the Savannah... they have a consta... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iETtCZcfmRyHp69w4/can-the-chain-still-hold-you |
# The Savage theorem and the Ellsberg paradox
**Followup to**: [A summary of Savage's foundation for probability and utility.](/lw/5te/a_summary_of_savages_foundations_for_probability)
In 1961, [Daniel Ellsberg](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Ellsberg), most famous for leaking the [Pentagon Papers](http://en.wik... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/thHZiZBDRPtGxCM6f/the-savage-theorem-and-the-ellsberg-paradox |
# Completeness, incompleteness, and what it all means: first versus second order logic
First order arithmetic is incomplete. Except that it's also complete. Second order arithmetic is more expressive - except when it's not - and is also incomplete and also complete, except when it means something different. Oh, and fu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MLqhJ8eDy5smbtGrf/completeness-incompleteness-and-what-it-all-means-first |
# [LINK] Being No One (~50 min talk on the self-model in your brain)
**Summary:** This is a ~50 minute talk (plus some introductory ado) by Thomas Metzinger on the problem of the experiencing, subjective self (why it exists, what it even means, how it arises). Not to be too cliché, but he attacks the problem by [disso... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Z5RN5Yhj69ky8oa3D/link-being-no-one-50-min-talk-on-the-self-model-in-your |
# Q&A with Abram Demski on risks from AI
**\[[Click here to see a list of all interviews](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Interview_series_on_risks_from_AI)\]**
[Abram Demski](http://www.facebook.com/abramdemski) is a computer science Ph.D student at the University of Southern California who has previously studied co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kToFGkGj5u5eYLJPF/q-and-a-with-abram-demski-on-risks-from-ai |
# Leveling Up in Rationality: A Personal Journey
See also: [Reflections on rationality a year out](/lw/50p/reflections_on_rationality_a_year_out/)
My favorite part of _Lord of the Rings_ was [skipped](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scouring_of_the_Shire#Adaptations) in both film adaptations. It occurs when our four... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HFYWpLNfdwnDwQ3wy/leveling-up-in-rationality-a-personal-journey |
# [Link] Five ways to classify belief systems
_On recommendation from several LessWrongers I've been over the past year or so occasionally digging into the many long posts to be found in the archives of [Unqualified Reservations](http://unqualified-reservations.blogspot.com/) (archive links best accessed from [here](... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/J2ErxgYutRgH96hnE/link-five-ways-to-classify-belief-systems |
# Histocracy: Open, Effective Group Decision-Making With Weighted Voting
The following is slightly edited from a pitch I wrote for a general audience. I've added blog-specific content afterwards.
* * *
Information technology allows for unprecedented levels of collaboration and debate. When an issue arises people com... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MDQnDGEKQuCAggRLe/histocracy-open-effective-group-decision-making-with |
# [Meta] No LessWrong Blackout?
Our sister site apparently is:
> ### Overcoming Bias will resume normal service on Jan 18 8:00pm (Eastern Time).
>
> Today Overcoming Bias joins [Wikipedia](http://wikimediafoundation.org/wiki/Press_releases/English_Wikipedia_to_go_dark) and [many other sites](http://www.sopastrike.co... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YFNmYCn3waR2bT8xv/meta-no-lesswrong-blackout |
# The Singularity Institute's Arrogance Problem
I intended [Leveling Up in Rationality](/lw/9fy/leveling_up_in_rationality_a_personal_journey/) to communicate this:
> Despite worries that [extreme rationality isn't that great](/lw/9p/rationality_its_not_that_great/), I think there's reason to hope that it _can_ be gr... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7bdLucRPBq334kFkm/the-singularity-institute-s-arrogance-problem |
# The problem with too many rational memes
Like so many of my posts, this one starts with a personal anecdote.
A few weeks ago, my boyfriend was invited to a community event through [Meetup.com](http://www.meetup.com/). The purpose of the meetup was to watch the movie [The Elegant Universe](http://www.youtube.com/wa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/stb3Jjumzhv49zCEb/the-problem-with-too-many-rational-memes |
# POSITION: Design and Write Rationality Curriculum
**Update March 2012: We are still accepting and processing applications for this work on an ongoing basis.**
Imagine trying to learn baseball by reading essays about baseball techniques. \[1\]
We're trying to make the jump to teaching people rationality by, metapho... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ifL8f4Xzy2D9Bb6zs/position-design-and-write-rationality-curriculum |
# The MIT Mystery Hunt and the Illusion of Transparency
[The MIT Mystery Hunt](http://www.mit.edu/~puzzle) is a collection of puzzles, solved in teams over a long weekend every year. The prize for winning is that your team gets to write next year's hunt. Mystery Hunt puzzles are generally designed to take a few hours ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9ik8K2q8YfAAd36vQ/the-mit-mystery-hunt-and-the-illusion-of-transparency |
# Q&A with experts on risks from AI #4
**\[[Click here to see a list of all interviews](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Interview_series_on_risks_from_AI)\]**
Professor **Michael G. Dyer** is an author of over 100 publications, including _In-Depth Understanding_, MIT Press, 1983. He serves on the editorial board of th... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7nPtpmBwoiQWDKvKz/q-and-a-with-experts-on-risks-from-ai-4 |
# Zeckhauser's roulette
Imagine you're playing Russian roulette. Case 1: a six-shooter contains four bullets, and you're asked how much you'll pay to remove one of them. Case 2: a six-shooter contains two bullets, and you're asked how much you'll pay to remove both of them. Steven Landsburg describes [an argument by ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bo5eY2Jzvh9xfSeDn/zeckhauser-s-roulette |
# Breaking the chain of akrasia
I'd like to share my specific motivation for writing [Can the Chain Still Hold You?](/lw/99t/can_the_chain_still_hold_you/)
I agree with [Yvain](/lw/9p/rationality_its_not_that_great/) that akrasia is probably a major reason that rationality alone doesn't create superheroes. You might ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4hMQHGMnsR4GJALmc/breaking-the-chain-of-akrasia |
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