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2aecd7cb-d41b-44c8-95a4-fd09ecb4fcd7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Helsinki Book Blanket Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Helsinki Book Blanket Meetup
WHEN: 16 August 2014 03:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: MANNERHEIMINTIE 13 A, Helsinki
Location changed to the large lobby-cafe of [http://www.musiikkitalo.fi/en] because of weather
Posted also as an event on Less Wrong F... |
64ffd59c-df02-4c58-94fc-4d5f2c6c4315 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Latent Adversarial Training
The Problem
===========
We’d like to train models to be robustly safe, even in environments that may fall well outside of the training distribution. Unfortunately all we get to work with is the training distribution, which makes ensuring robust generalization difficult.
Deception is an ex... |
18729fea-7727-4012-98ae-349fcd2da021 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #79: Ready for Some Football
I have never been more ready for Some Football.
Have I learned all about the teams and players in detail? No, I have been rather busy, and have not had the opportunity to do that, although I eagerly await Seth Burn’s Football Preview. I’ll have to do that part on the fly.
But oh my wo... |
db0cd6fa-22f5-4d1d-a0b2-9b23f4288932 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Undiscriminating Skepticism
Tl;dr: Since it can be cheap and easy to attack everything your tribe doesn't believe, you shouldn't trust the rationality of just anyone who slams astrology and creationism; these beliefs aren't just false, they're also non-tribal among educated audiences. Test what happens when a "skept... |
d5d72575-d2bb-4dec-9deb-dece2acd0fc0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Atlanta Lesswrong September Meetup (2nd of 2)
Discussion article for the meetup : Atlanta Lesswrong September Meetup (2nd of 2)
WHEN: 28 September 2013 06:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 2388 Lawrenceville Hwy. Apt L. Decatur, GA 30033
Come join us for the second meetup for the month of September! We'll be doing ou... |
0e57580f-cabe-4aec-b4d3-90c9e55fbf0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inscrutable Ideas
David Chapman has issued something of a challenge to those of us thinking in the space of what he calls the meta-rational, many people call the post-modern, and I call the holonic. He thinks we can and should be less opaque, more comprehensible, and less inscrutable (specifically less inscrutable to ... |
e0f57699-2e83-4890-9f2a-1a4bd9a68ff0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Limits of Automation
>
> Too much time is wasted because of the assumption that methods already in existence will solve problems for which they were not designed; too many hypotheses and systems of thought in philosophy and elsewhere are based on the bizarre view that we, at this point in history, are in possessi... |
6c5014a6-7e90-41ea-8252-efe6b0a15d80 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dath Ilani Rule of Law
Minor spoilers for mad investor chaos and the woman of asmodeus (planecrash Book 1).
Also, be warned: citation links in this post link to a NSFW subthread in the story.
Criminal Law and Dath Ilan
> When Keltham was very young indeed, it was explained to him that if somebody old enough to know... |
daec93d9-de1d-4d58-b178-3b19e71248c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I’ve become a medical mystery and I don’t know how to effectively get help
To put it very mildly, I’m in a really bad way emotionally because of this and I’m running out of ideas. Any ideas are welcome—specific to symptoms, or just generally how to deal with having a problem and not being able tot get diagnosis or tre... |
ab32f796-4b44-4adf-9701-974223c5f2c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 23andMe potentially for sale for <$50M
It seems the company has gone bankrupt and wants to be bought and you can probably get their data if you buy it. I'm not sure how thorough their transcription is, but they have records for at least 10 million people (who voluntarily took a DNA test and even paid for it!). Maybe t... |
c4f0706c-2376-44c0-bf3f-919e8b9524b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Planning Fallacy
The Denver International Airport opened 16 months late, at a cost overrun of $2 billion.1
The Eurofighter Typhoon, a joint defense project of several European countries, was delivered 54 months late at a cost of $19 billion instead of $7 billion.
The Sydney Opera House may be the most legendary cons... |
344a7aa9-d65d-4cdb-9874-eae28448ab6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The American System and Misleading Labels
Today's post, The American System and Misleading Labels was originally published on 02 January 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> The conclusions we draw from analyzing the American political system are often biased by our own previous understanding of... |
763961cd-b3fb-48b2-be98-d235c7f3fde1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Question] Adoption and twin studies confounders
Adoption and twin studies are very important for determining the impact of genes versus environment in the modern world (and hence the likely impact of various interventions). Other types of studies tend to show larger effects for some types of latter interventions, but... |
20a0751d-e25b-444d-a0a8-89b4aaf84c9a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Partnership
This is the sixth speech in the wedding ceremony of Ruby & Miranda. See the Sequence introduction for more info. The speech was given by Miranda.
----------------------------------------
Oliver descends from podium.
Brienne: Ruby and Miranda have been part of this community and shared these values with... |
7860b61a-c548-4572-9514-2bcee6da0c51 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Defining Optimization in a Deeper Way Part 1
My aim is to define optimization without making reference to the following things:
1. A "null" action or "nonexistence" of the optimizer. This is generally poorly defined, and choices of different null actions give different answers.
2. Repeated action. An optimizer shou... |
c389ba71-2c92-42ab-8a6c-302259795ebd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Illusory Safety: Redteaming DeepSeek R1 and the Strongest Fine-Tunable Models of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google
DeepSeek-R1 has recently made waves as a state-of-the-art open-weight model, with potentially substantial improvements in model efficiency and reasoning. But like other open-weight models and leading fine-tun... |
29f5b586-a6df-4840-b1ea-7748f6169389 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Aumann Agreement Game
I've written up a rationality game which we played several times at our local LW chapter and had a lot of fun with. The idea is to put Aumann's agreement theorem into practice as a multi-player calibration game, in which players react to the probabilities which other players give (each holding so... |
d2ccadfb-73b6-4bcc-9078-ecd96f0a2d4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Apply to the 2024 PIBBSS Summer Research Fellowship
TLDR: We're hosting a 3-month, fully-funded fellowship to do AI safety research drawing on inspiration from fields like evolutionary biology, neuroscience, dynamical systems theory, and more. Past fellows have been mentored by John Wentworth, Davidad, Abram Demski, J... |
7f02ad49-37c4-46b3-bb4f-b51c9506a70e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Serotonin Transporter Genotype (5-HTTLPR) Predicts Utilitarian Moral Judgments
A new link is found between serotonin transporters and philosophical predispositions. |
7aaec99a-a410-4a65-8dd0-888830e06b1c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mazes Sequence Roundup: Final Thoughts and Paths Forward
There are still two elephants in the room that I must address before concluding. Then I will discuss paths forward.
MOLOCH’S ARMY
The first elephant is Moloch’s Army. I still can’t find a way into this without sounding crazy. The result of this is that the seq... |
a74d3b36-f370-49fe-aaa5-202eac8dcb07 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Has Life Gotten Better?
*Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc.*
Human civilization is thousands of years old. What's our report card? Whatever we've been doing, has it been "working" to make our lives better than they were before? Or is all our "progress" just helping us b... |
10030769-0436-4897-b6e3-e76ad6128b36 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Heritability: Five Battles
(See changelog at the bottom for minor updates since publication.)
0.1 tl;dr
This is an opinionated but hopefully beginner-friendly discussion of heritability: what is it, what do we know about it, and how we should think about it? I structure my discussion around five contexts in which pe... |
dc5a3708-f12d-4629-842e-c930629bfd9f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A review of Principia Qualia
Principia Qualia, by Michael Johnson, is a long document describing an approach to theorizing about and studying consciousness. I have heard enough positive things about the document to consider it worth reviewing.
I will split the paper (and the review) into 4 parts:
1. Motivating bott... |
2624d9b2-e293-453a-966a-5b549a1a1f3f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI Safety Seems Hard to Measure
In previous pieces, I argued that there's a real and large risk of AI systems' [developing dangerous goals of their own](https... |
c39b7559-4f92-4174-80bc-9b04fd70a571 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I need a protocol for dangerous or disconcerting ideas.
I have a talent for reasoning my way into terrifying and harmful conclusions. The first was modal realism as a fourteen-year-old. Of course I did not understand most of its consequences, but I disliked the fact that existence was infinite. It mildly depressed me ... |
5714d79c-a5d7-440e-a547-46e165b6714d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Google DeepMind's RT-2
Abstract
--------
> We study how vision-language models trained on Internet-scale data can be incorporated directly into end-to-end robotic control to boost generali... |
6f98f459-66d0-4c0c-9226-f0de0ef80368 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Japanese Quiz: a Thought Experiment of Statistical Epistemology
This post is an excerpt from my book, "Notes on a New Philosophy of Empirical Science". I've found it hard to publish small pieces from the book, because each concept is inextricably linked in my mind to all the other concepts. But I think this sectio... |
d6a3928b-f708-4fed-9cab-e3732641b005 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Have Space Correctly
[NOTE: This post has undergone substantial revisions following feedback in the comments section. The basic complaint was that it was too airy and light on concrete examples and recommendations. So I've said oops, applied the virtue of narrowness, gotten specific, and hopefully made this w... |
70ccd49c-0c75-4ccc-a95c-631d75940ae9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Linkpost: Hypocrisy standoff
|
201f0c90-bc0c-4538-8f8b-311ea12e6d42 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AISafety.world is a map of the AIS ecosystem
The URL is aisafety.world
The map displays a reasonably comprehensive list of organizations, people, and resources in the AI safety space, including:
* research organizations
* blogs/forums
* podcasts
* youtube channels
* training programs
* career support
* funder... |
98be9e4b-1e27-467d-93dd-bbf23298aa9f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What I've been reading, November 2023
A ~monthly feature. Recent blog posts and news stories are generally omitted; you can find them in my links digests. All emphasis in bold in the quotes below was added by me.
Books
Finished Lynn White, Medieval Technology and Social Change (1962). Last time I talked about the st... |
a79fa1d0-f161-4626-8b60-9ba337b36c85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Popular Personal Financial Advice versus the Professors (James Choi, NBER)
This econ paper about personal finance was featured in a recent Freakonomics Radio episode. It compares the financial advice in popular personal finance books with what economics research says is optimal financial behavior.
Some of the most su... |
0953e2a6-fa8b-4ebf-9bee-812b7bc2e9a8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Deep Learning 3: Neural Networks Foundations
so I hope you enjoyed last week's
tutorial on tensor flow and this week we
again have something very special for
you Simon or Sendero here will give a
lecture about neural networks back
propagation how to train those networks
and so on and it's really quite special
to have ... |
66b2e0b2-1192-4d54-a64f-a5b6e323a5f6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Logic Locking at the Frontiers of Machine Learning: A Survey on Developments and Opportunities
I Introduction
---------------
The involvement of untrusted parties in the modern Integrated Circuit (IC) supply has given rise to a plethora of security concerns, including Intellectual Property (IP) piracy, reverse engi... |
273c602f-e584-4d8a-9661-a52b27ecfbc6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Dualist Predict-O-Matic ($100 prize)
This is a response to Abram's The Parable of Predict-O-Matic, but you probably don't need to read Abram's post to understand mine. While writing this, I thought of a way in which I think things could wrong with dualist Predict-O-Matic, which I plan to post in about a week. I'm ... |
b16e7bfe-1b26-47f0-80ef-1e39e7ce51a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Agents, Tools, and Simulators
This post was written as part of AISC 2025. It is the first in a sequence we intend to publish over the next several weeks.
Introduction
What policies and research directions make sense in response to AI depends a lot on the conceptual lens one uses to understand the nature of AI as it... |
72987b46-07b4-4305-b530-7f15efcc8ecf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bruce Sterling on the AI mania of 2023
Bruce Sterling is a well-known SF writer, but I think he is not quite on the radar of Less Wrong, so I'll say a bit about how I locate him culturally. I'll make a distinction between SF that is primarily about marvels of science and technology, and SF that is primarily about how ... |
e4165c68-8e30-465b-9d9c-d61941db0392 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Confused as to usefulness of 'consciousness' as a concept
Years ago, before I had come across many of the power tools in statistics, information theory, algorithmics, decision theory, or the Sequences, I was very confused by the concept of intelligence. Like many, I was inclined to reify it as some mysterious, effecti... |
a78df2ca-9aad-4b31-9c04-a2810029929b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Audition to perform in Bay Secular Solstice
We’re looking to get new people involved with Secular Solstice this year! We need orators to give speeches, and singers and instrumentalists of all kinds to lead singalongs.
Solstice will be on December 17th in SF or Oakland, and there will be a dress rehearsal in the week ... |
00922127-4fb5-4244-afd1-dea900c3d818 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Social Alignment Problem
TLDR: I think public outreach is a very hopeful path to victory. More importantly, extended large-scale conversation around questions such as whether public outreach is a hopeful path to victory would be very likely to decrease p(doom).
You’re a genius mechanical engineer in prison. You s... |
98c777f9-7946-4c56-9379-7e0967e8957e | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post88
In this post, I'll try to explain my current understanding of the high level methods for handling non-concentrated failures with control. I'll discuss the regimes produced by different methods and the failure modes of these different regimes. Non-concentrated failures are issues that arise from the AI doing... |
b5bad15e-0f62-471f-8faa-524dc8a8262f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Assessing the Impact of Informedness on a Consultant's Profit
1 Introduction
---------------
When purchasing information, one wants to be sure of the quality of the
information in question. However, if one is not an expert oneself in the
relevant domain, assessing the quality of information can be difficult.
For th... |
ef4a89bc-6bba-430f-86d4-4a85f1e107fc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Some Arguments Against Strong Scaling
There are many people who believe that we will be able to get to AGI by basically just scaling up the techniques used in recent large language models, combined with some relatively minor additions and/or architectural changes. As a result, there are people in the AI safety communi... |
77482b44-fa3f-425e-bb13-79595295941e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : LessWrong Australia online hangout
Discussion article for the meetup : LessWrong Australia online hangout
WHEN: 28 June 2015 07:30:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Canberra
See you at the online hangout. From wherever you are.
Link to be posted about 10 minutes before hand because they expire otherwise.
We use google... |
a9e1cfa8-0a13-48f9-85a8-c9395d88dc4a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Near-Term Risks of an Obedient Artificial Intelligence
*[Hi everyone, Yassine here: long-time orbiter first-time poster. I figured this piece I* [*published on 1/23/23*](https://ymeskhout.substack.com/p/near-term-risks-of-an-obedient-artificial) *would be as good as any of an introduction.]*
![](https://res.cloudinar... |
8e68be92-699b-4155-97dd-7ae2dd9408a6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | We're Not Ready: thoughts on "pausing" and responsible scaling policies
*Views are my own, not Open Philanthropy’s. I am married to the President of [Anthropic](https://www.anthropic.com/) and have a financial interest in both Anthropic and OpenAI via my spouse.*
Over the last few months, I’ve spent a lot of my ti... |
ec271147-4241-4aea-bc4c-c72059dc485d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to hack one's self to want to want to ... hack one's self.
I was inspired by the recent post discussing self-hacking for the purpose of changing a relationship perspective to achieve a goal. Despite my feeling inspired, though, I also felt like life hacking was not something I could ever want to do even if I perce... |
891c8c0d-8edc-4964-af5a-adaf589611d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Toy alignment problem: Social Nework KPI design
Suppose you are not a superhuman AGI, but instead a startup in 2006 (destined to grow to a large global company by 2022).
(This setup hopefully makes it less complicated then a Open-Source Wish Project as we use a company of smart young people, not an omnipotent mean ge... |
3c663c61-2cf3-45c2-a24a-ee68a3256228 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Experts' AI timelines are longer than you have been told?
This is a linkpost for How should we analyse survey forecasts of AI timelines? by Tom Adamczewski, which was published on 16 December 2024[1]. Below are some quotes from Tom's post, and a bet I would be happy to make with people whose AI timelines are much shor... |
670b38ed-cb16-47de-aa6c-85a68cda6eaa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Science is slowing down, Universities and Maslow's hierarchy of needs
I don’t have a very high prior in regards to the correctness of Maslow's hierarchy of needs, but as far as general theories for understanding human needs go, I think it’s a pretty good.
There’s certainly people who seem to go strongly against... |
bfe251f1-2325-436b-a314-726823adc415 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Avoiding Negative Side Effects due to Incomplete Knowledge of AI Systems
1 Introduction
---------------
A world populated with intelligent and autonomous systems that simplify our lives is gradually becoming a reality. These systems are *autonomous* in the sense that they can devise a sequence of actions to achieve... |
b9e54761-4053-4a6f-a581-7d3089f53471 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Neural nets designing neural nets
|
e5b1502f-e613-4462-8189-31f3a9c0bcbf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do you solicit feedback effectively?
It looks like I've been overly paranoid about the helpfulness of things I've done. A friend said that they could fill out feedback forms after conversations and while that wouldn't be perfect, I thought if I use it across multiple people it would likely be helpful.
I'm wonder... |
97c32e23-8871-49a8-8950-e37f9015b0cd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Examples of AI's behaving badly
Some past examples to motivate thought on how AI's could misbehave:
An [algorithm pauses the game](http://techcrunch.com/2013/04/14/nes-robot/) to never lose at Tetris.
In "[Learning to Drive a Bicycle using Reinforcement Learning and Shaping](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/down... |
8a7ace74-fed8-4f1b-8a53-b11ab8809d69 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moving towards a question-based planning framework, instead of task lists
Each brick = one uncertainty
TL;DR
Maybe instead of writing task lists, reframe macro objectives in terms of nested questions until you reach 'root' testable experiments.
Putting this into practice
I built a tool for myself, ‘Thought-Tree’ h... |
5c1846b2-1e81-4f3a-adb8-1e836d4d40dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | IntelligenceExplosion.com graphic redesign
LW user Lightwave offered to redesign IntelligenceExplosion.com, which at that point looked almost identical to anthropic-principle.com because I don't do web design. Within 9 days of original email contact, Lightwave completed the project and I uploaded the new files. The re... |
928485c1-b55d-4e0a-8c41-4ddc7b8ee164 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Governing Boring Apocalypses: A new typology of existential vulnerabilities and exposures for existential risk research
Introduction the definition and framings of existential risk In recent years, a growing body of scholarship has argued that a new class of risks bears closer study, for their potential extreme impact... |
b2f01ae5-180a-490b-98a2-5357a4fd429d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nearest unblocked strategy versus learning patches
The nearest unblocked strategy problem (NUS) is the idea that if you program a restriction or a patch into an AI, then the AI will often be motivated to pick a strategy that is as close as possible to the banned strategy, and maybe just as dangerous.
For instance, if... |
e516bebc-15d5-4dfc-b5d2-b630ada57a73 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Secure Deep Learning Engineering: A Software Quality Assurance Perspective
1 Introduction
---------------
In company with massive data explosion and powerful computational hardware enhancement, deep learning (DL) has recently achieved substantial strides in cutting-edge intelligent applications, ranging from virtua... |
179b3aef-8c6f-485c-b250-567c67f0fc47 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3757
A putative new idea for AI control; index here . Suppose that we knew that superintelligent AI was to be developed within six months, what would I do? Well, drinking coffee by the barrel at Miri's emergency research retreat I'd... still probably spend a month looking at things from the meta level, and cla... |
bd5ae9a7-a91e-4686-baa5-d0a407d74802 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ethical AI investments?
Had a bit of a freak out and liquidated my investments in Google, Microsoft, Nvidia and Meta after watching Eliezers interview with the bankless podcast, not because I thought it actually change the trajectory of AGI but because I don’t want to invest in the end of humanity. Are there any actua... |
5da29edb-bd31-436e-92f6-279f785a4931 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preferences and biases, the information argument
I've recently thought of a possibly simpler way of expressing the argument from the Occam's razor paper. Namely:
* Human biases and human preferences contain more combined information than human behaviour does. And more than the full human policy does.
Thus, in order... |
877d362a-0eb7-4790-9dd6-c12231cb3f71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Subskills of "Listening to Wisdom"
A fool learns from their own mistakes
The wise learn from the mistakes of others.
– Otto von Bismarck
A problem as old as time: The youth won't listen to your hard-earned wisdom.
This post is about learning to listen to, and communicate wisdom. It is very long – I considered ... |
6fed6cfb-043f-428f-bc4f-4f7868b2aaa5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Solving Math Problems by Relay
From September to November 2018 we ran an experiment where people did programming in relay. Each player spent ten minutes on a programming problem before passing on their code to a new player who had not seen any of the previous work. We found that people were able to solve some problems... |
8423ca1f-fba5-4e09-9a68-54830e2b4b7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, Apr. 13 - Apr. 19, 2015
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately... |
ee0feacb-c7fe-46d1-a367-b44a3bb1dc2f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Many life-saving drugs fail for lack of funding. But there’s a solution: desperate rich people
Two scrappy middle-aged men without PhD.s (self-described) have ethical solutions on how to fund drug trials with potential, including an anti-aging drug. |
6cc47a8e-2652-4d7b-acd5-d9a5d49ff42d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Squires
Last year, johnswentworth posted The Apprentice Experiment. I tried it out. It was a disaster for me and most of my "apprentices". Since then I have been figuring out how to make apprenticeship work. I currently have two minions. Thanks to them, I finally feel like a proper supervillain.
> "How can I live wit... |
eee5454b-e660-4fd0-a950-ce4d1a089acc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 2L Attention - Theory [rough early thoughts]
in the last few videos we've had some
success trying to understand one layer
of attention only transformers
and so in this video we're going to move
on and try to study two layer attention
only transformers
now
this this first video on that topic is
going to just be about
... |
4502881d-ea79-4043-96e5-2ded47cacb94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Copyright Confrontation #1
Lawsuits and legal issues over copyright continued to get a lot of attention this week, so I’m gathering those topics into their own post. The ‘virtual #0’ post is the relevant section from last week’s roundup.
FOUR CORE CLAIMS
Who will win the case? Which of New York Times’s complaints wi... |
6f56a227-8a84-4b71-9480-39d48916e3da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deriving Conditional Expected Utility from Pareto-Efficient Decisions
This is a distillation of this post by John Wentworth.
Introduction
Suppose you're playing a poker game. You're an excellent poker player (though you've never studied probability), and your goal is to maximize your winnings.
Your opponent is abou... |
b2b6a269-0da6-4b0d-9d73-16c80392226a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup - Wits and Wagers
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup - Wits and Wagers
WHEN: 30 January 2013 07:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064
When: 7:00pm Wednesday, January 30th.
Where: The Westside Tavern in the upstairs Wine Bar (all ages welcome), loc... |
cde1b925-a32e-4d6d-9b2b-d48093438cb1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Alignment Newsletter #12: 06/25/18
**Highlights**
--------------
**[Factored Cognition](https://ought.org/presentations/factored-cognition-2018-05)** *(Andreas Stuhlmuller)*: This is a presentation that Andreas has given a few times on Factored Cognition, a project by [Ought](https://ought.org/) that is empirical... |
ceb28161-3dd6-49a0-b38a-dccbcb023fc0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Auto-Downloder Chrome Extension
Let's say you want Chrome to automatically download pieces of pages, such as Facebook comments. How could you do it? I recently wanted to do this and couldn't find docs, so here's what I did.
1. Make a folder somewhere for a browser extension.
2. In that folder, make manifest.json... |
0eb6cbe3-e492-44b0-bea0-9da577aba0c1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI Tracker: monitoring current and near-future risks from superscale models
**TLDR:** We've put together a website to track recent releases of superscale models, and comment on the immediate and near-term safety risks they may pose. The website is little more than a view of an Airtable spreadsheet at the moment, but w... |
f604aa43-419d-4827-b38e-332c069a22e1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Model-driven feedback could amplify alignment failures
Anthropic, DeepMind and Google Brain are all working on strategies to train language models on their own outputs. For a brief summary of the work so far:
1. [Red Teaming Language Models with Language Models](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2202.03286.pdf) (Perez et al., 20... |
47175fee-375a-4bfa-a98f-f207a156e4cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dares are social signaling at its purest
|
ebfc5771-1505-4c88-ac32-59744556bea5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Speculations against GPT-n writing alignment papers
Some alignment proposals I have heard discussed involve getting GPT-n to write alignment papers, and using GPT-n as a transparency tool on itself. This is my speculations on ways it could go wrong.
One specific proposal I heard was getting GPT-n to convert its own n... |
b0933f25-38d0-4170-a477-8de045092af0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Revisiting torture vs. dust specks
In line with my fine tradition of beating old horses, in this post I'll try to summarize some arguments that people proposed in the ancient puzzle of Torture vs. Dust Specks and add some of my own. Not intended as an endorsement of either side. (I do have a preferred side, but don't ... |
865f3f92-9300-499f-99aa-33cecdf42a89 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Bratislava Meetup XV.
Discussion article for the meetup : Bratislava Meetup XV.
WHEN: 28 July 2014 06:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Bistro The Peach, Mariánska 3, Bratislava
Pozor, zmena adresy! Voľná diskusia.
Discussion article for the meetup : Bratislava Meetup XV. |
9571dc8f-2cc4-4482-895c-f5b2d39cca2d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Zvi’s Thoughts on His 2nd Round of SFF
Previously: Long-Term Charities: Apply For SFF Funding, Zvi’s Thoughts on SFF
There are lots of great charitable giving opportunities out there right now.
I recently had the opportunity to be a recommender in the Survival and Flourishing Fund for the second time. As a recommend... |
b81e2b53-6ff4-4cd9-bf02-a27463ba26da | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "This year I'm a supporting member of WorldCon for the first time, and I noticed that the Hugo's have a category for Best Fan Writer ("Any person whose writing has appeared in semiprozines or fanzines or in generally available electronic media during 2010."). I do believe Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality cou... |
86555d0b-a564-4f1a-bab9-54af483c5e7c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [Request for Distillation] Coherence of Distributed Decisions With Different Inputs Implies Conditioning
*There’s been a lot of response to the* [*Call For Distillers*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zo9zKcz47JxDErFzQ/call-for-distillers)*, so I’m experimenting with a new post format. This post is relatively short a... |
70cf10d8-42e4-4294-8ed9-3d8a68cb329d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Bay City Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Bay City Meetup
WHEN: 30 June 2016 03:23:15PM (-0400)
WHERE: 2010 5th St, Bay City, MI
Anybody around here?
Discussion article for the meetup : Bay City Meetup |
3292a604-4bb6-4897-934d-f75268dda72e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Through a panel, darkly: a case study in internet BS detection
I set out to answer a simple question: How much energy does it take to make solar panels? A quick DuckDuckGo search led me to this website [archive] which says:
> it would cost about 200kWh of energy to produce a 100-watt panel
But something about this w... |
742f0bfd-0aac-480d-9d2b-435185525d0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts from a Two Boxer
I'm writing this for blog day at MSFP. I thought about a lot of things here like category theory, the 1-2-3 conjecture and Paul Christiano's agenda. I want to start by thanking everyone for having me and saying I had a really good time. At this point I intend to go back to thinking about the ... |
1fd5dbe0-6e39-49c5-9a0e-d09f060c9468 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Who Aligns the Alignment Researchers?
There may be an incentives problem for AI researchers and research organizations who face a choice between researching Capabilities, Alignment, or neither. The incentives structure will lead individuals and organizations to work towards Capabilities work rather than Alignment. The... |
fcfd8156-40e6-4c2b-91aa-25afc8c5a0be | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Mind projection fallacy
The "mind projection fallacy" occurs when somebody expects an overly direct resemblance between the intuitive language of the mind, and the language of physical reality.
Consider the [map and territory](https://arbital.com/p/map_territory) metaphor, in which the world is a like a territory and... |
4c0c5f1f-a221-4477-ba03-868842df499f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My "infohazards small working group" Signal Chat may have encountered minor leaks
Remember: There is no such thing as a pink elephant.
Recently, I was made aware that my “infohazards small working group” Signal chat, an informal coordination venue where we have frank discussions about infohazards and why it will be b... |
a4271cbf-2bb5-41c8-bcdc-f7e2a9232641 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post1027
TL;DR We are a new AI evals research organization called Apollo Research based in London. We think that strategic AI deception – where a model outwardly seems aligned but is in fact misaligned – is a crucial step in many major catastrophic AI risk scenarios and that detecting deception in real-world model... |
d4404e98-fded-4485-b793-95fd034ad4d9 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I notice that when I write for a public audience, I usually present ideas in a modernist, skeptical, academic style; whereas, the way I come up with ideas is usually in part by engaging in epistemic modalities that such a style has difficulty conceptualizing or considers illegitimate, including: Advanced introspection... |
60dff962-fcdc-401c-82b2-936aed5fafc4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Compute Trends Across Three eras of Machine Learning
https://arxiv.org/abs/2202.05924
What do you need to develop advanced Machine Learning systems? Leading companies don’t know. But they are very interested in figuring it out. They dream of replacing all these pesky workers with reliable machines who take no leave a... |
c39dc0f3-d1eb-497d-b4db-411d54376bc0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Conservative concept boundary
The problem of conservatism is to draw a boundary around positive instances of a concept which is not only *simple* but also *classifies as few instances as possible as positive.*
# Introduction / basic idea / motivation
Suppose I have a numerical concept in mind, and you query me on th... |
4337ecc8-8128-4d57-9c35-4f12d800f5a1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agisf | AGI Safety Fund | [Week 7] OpenAI Charter
This document reflects the strategy we’ve refined over the past two years, including feedback from many people internal and external to OpenAI. The timeline to AGI remains uncertain, but our Charter will guide us in acting in the best interests of humanity throughout its development.
OpenAI’s ... |
f8279f60-b29d-4537-99b5-38ef7550221c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Using Threats to Achieve Socially Optimal Outcomes
In the last post, we saw an example of how dath ilan's Algorithm calls for negotiators to use non-credible threats to achieve fair outcomes when bargaining. The Algorithm also has a lot to say about threats more generally. In particular, that there is a type of threat... |
888ccce4-1a9d-476a-aeb9-45832f2892b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne, practical rationality
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne, practical rationality
WHEN: 04 January 2013 07:00:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: 55 Walsh St West Melbourne 3003
Practical rationality. This meetup repeats on the 1st Friday of each month and is distinct from our social meetup on the 3rd ... |
82a90af1-8817-4503-a8f5-8ba82e35e3b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Book review] Getting things done
This is a book review of the book Getting things done by David Allen. I read it in the context of a personal literature review project on the topic of productivity and well being. If you are more interested by advice on productivity and wellbeing than by this specific book I advise yo... |
556c889e-3f6d-44de-8e48-4e9f63d3d621 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | When AI Accelerates AI
Last week, Nate Soares [outlined his case](https://intelligence.org/2015/07/24/four-background-claims/) for prioritizing long-term AI safety work:
1. *Humans have a fairly general ability to make scientific and technological progress.* The evolved cognitive faculties that make us good at organ... |
9e5793ac-e212-4956-ba7c-760fb4045fec | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Peter Eckersley | Setting Priorities in Addressing AI Risk | VISION WEEKEND 2019
so Alison asked me to talk about
priorities in addressing AI risk before
I do that I'm going to just mention I
work at the partnership on AI it's an
independent non-profit but created by
the tech companies and we have order of
a hundred p... |
3c3236ff-20af-491e-81b2-c56818e43bf9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Catholic theologians and priests on artificial intelligence
The Journal of Moral Theology's spring issue is a [special issue on the topic of artificial intelligence](https://jmt.scholasticahq.com/issue/4236). It includes dialogues and essays by Catholic theologians and priests on topics ranging from economic impacts o... |
692f93db-9847-4a45-80e6-a488ec961ef9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The smallest possible button (or: moth traps!)
tl;dr: The more knowledge you have, the smaller the button you need to press to achieve desired results. This is what makes moth traps formidable killing machines, and it's a good analogy for other formidable killing machines I could mention.
Traps
I was shopping for ... |
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