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f6bd243d-4930-40e4-82dc-0e8181620b5b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 'Theories of Values' and 'Theories of Agents': confusions, musings and desiderata
Meta:
* Content signposts: we talk about limits to expected utility theory; what values are (and ways in which we're confused about what values are); the need for a "generative"/developmental logic of agents (and their values); types o... |
9fff7b95-8d0f-41bf-aae0-cc06d4801baf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ads are everywhere, and it's not okay
[Crossposted from damiensnyder.com.]
Author's note: Thanks to the commenters who have pointed out some weaknesses in my argument I didn't think of. I still endorse the majority of this argument, but I don't think this was the best way to express it. (An earlier post I drafted on ... |
eea8c5be-e97d-4f76-b362-6db6932d0b09 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #79]: Recursive reward modeling as an alignment technique integrated with deep RL
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter. I'm always happy to hear feedback; you can send it to me by replyi... |
e4f38c83-40a2-482f-bf03-acbcfc6bc410 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wanted: Executive Assistant to help build the progress movement
I’m hiring an Executive Assistant to be part of the founding team at The Roots of Progress, and to work closely with me on all of our projects to build the progress movement.
This role is perfect for someone who wants to combine dedication to an ambitiou... |
42381aa1-c386-4bcb-8cc5-3750ea60b7de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Figuring out what Alice wants: non-human Alice
I’ve shown that we cannot deduce the preferences of a potentially irrational agent. Even simplicity priors don’t help. We need to make extra ‘normative’ assumptions in order to be able to say anything about these preferences.
I then presented a more intuitive example, in... |
c69c51bf-a244-4165-a794-7fb2e9cb9407 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | To what ethics is an AGI actually safely alignable?
Today, AI is thought to be alignable to nearly every task except for obviously unethical ones like writing insecure code without a noble reason, which was found to induce broad misalignment or lower the AI's inhibitions. The question of whether alignment of superinte... |
4dc96c13-807c-497c-af05-6368086b1ead | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reward uncertainty
In my last post, I argued that interaction between the human and the AI system was necessary in order for the AI system to “stay on track” as we encounter new and unforeseen changes to the environment. The most obvious implementation of this would be to have an AI system that keeps an estimate of th... |
73f26d62-464b-4b65-bd75-e0830cc95dc0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ghosts in the Machine
People hear about Friendly AI and say - this is one of the top three initial reactions:
"Oh, you can try to tell the AI to be Friendly, but if the AI can modify its own source code, it'll just remove any constraints you try to place on it."
And where does that decision come from?
Does it enter... |
71a25a9e-243c-4928-bdd3-572ad348d197 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ACI#9: What is Intelligence
Abstract
This article is a brief summary of ACI's new definition of intelligence: Doing the same thing in new situations as the examples of the right thing to do, by making predictions based on these examples. In other words, intelligence makes decisions by stare decisis with Solomonoff ind... |
b0b2a5d1-a66c-419e-abc3-ae3a9ca69ce7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | David Krueger on AI Alignment in Academia and Coordination
[David Krueger](https://www.davidscottkrueger.com/) is an assistant professor at the University of Cambridge and got his PhD from Mila. His research group focuses on aligning deep learning systems, but he is also interested in governance and global coordinatio... |
bc5680ee-4bae-49a7-9593-f30100709c38 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Branding Biodiversity
http://www.futerra.co.uk/downloads/Branding_Biodiversity.pdf
I'm quite interested in seeing if this works. I have sent this to several wildlife-guides and conservationists and will monitor their reactions.
It talks about what emotions drive people to actually do something to protect biodiversit... |
b52bc8ec-a152-4b4b-9ba9-8e26c0e28642 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Lawrence Watt-Evans's Fiction
Today's post, Lawrence Watt-Evans's Fiction was originally published on 15 July 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> A review of Lawrence Watt-Evans's fiction.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
This post is part of the Rerunni... |
0aaac58d-025e-443b-9d3c-416b6bdef83d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monthly Roundup #15: February 2024
Another month. More things. Much roundup.
BAD NEWS
Jesse Smith writes in Asterisk that our HVAC workforce is both deeply incompetent and deeply corrupt. This certainly matches my own experience. Calculations are almost always flubbed when they are done at all, outright fraudulent p... |
9afbe868-0dbc-4edc-892f-12432cc039c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Valence series] 1. Introduction
1.1 Summary & Table of Contents
This is the first of a series of five blog posts on valence. Here’s an overview of the whole series, and then we’ll jump right into the first post!
1.1.1 Summary & Table of Contents—for the whole Valence series
Let’s say a thought pops into your mind: ... |
8f1de810-13c1-4d0b-948a-1eff57a1a1bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learning with catastrophes
A catastrophe is an event so bad that we are not willing to let it happen even a single time. For example, we would be unhappy if our self-driving car ever accelerates to 65 mph in a residential area and hits a pedestrian.
Catastrophes present a theoretical challenge for traditional machine... |
0b05f412-adf6-49d8-910c-a92b7bafbdf9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Historic trends in land speed records
Land speed records did not see any greater-than-10-year discontinuities relative to linear progress across all records. Considered as several distinct linear trends it saw discontinuities of 12, 13, 25, and 13 years, the first two corresponding to early (but not first) jet-propell... |
53578c5c-cb7c-47db-8ba7-50d4822dadc5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Carbon dioxide, climate sensitivity, feedbacks, and the historical record: a cursory examination of the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis
Note: In this blog post, I reference a number of blog posts and academic papers. Two caveats to these references: (a) I often reference them for a specific graph or calc... |
71ad77f0-752a-4da3-b5e6-cb2c0534865f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a convenient way to make "sealed" predictions?
Many people in our community claim to have ideas for how to build AGI, or other things, that they deem infohazardous and so don't want to publish. It would be great if they could publicly register these ideas in an encrypted way, so that later when their predicti... |
815449ae-6a0f-4c0a-a336-e082644d3b65 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Sheer Folly of Callow Youth
> "There speaks the sheer folly of callow youth; the rashness of an ignorance so abysmal as to be possible only to one of your ephemeral race..."
> —Gharlane of Eddore
Once upon a time, years ago, I propounded a mysterious answer to a mysterious question—as I've hinted on sever... |
ee3e7644-2fb7-4cb6-8cdb-6548028fb44e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | New article from Oren Etzioni
(Cross-posted from [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/7x2BokkkemjnXD9B6/new-article-from-oren-etzioni).)
This just appeared in this week’s MIT Technology Review: Oren Etzioni, “[How to know if AI is about to destroy civilization](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/61526... |
2e29d0a7-1aca-4394-9432-fc8c5da7cc61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A summary of every Replacing Guilt post
1
I recently finished the Replacing Guilt series (by Nate Soares).
I don't struggle much with guilt. I consider myself a happy and energetic person. I also spent several years studying psychology, and I'm familiar with many techniques from cognitive-behavioral therapy.
So I w... |
a810c3d1-0806-4bf6-ad89-49646b2adb13 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Can "Reward Economics" solve AI Alignment?
I think we can try to solve AI Alignment this way:
Model human values and objects in the world as a "money system" (a system of meaningful trades). Make the AGI learn the correct "money system", specify some obviously incorrect "money systems".
Basically, you ask the AI *"m... |
a4af3d28-41bb-448d-8df0-7cf5840e5a27 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | MIRI has a new COO: Malo Bourgon
I’m happy to announce that Malo Bourgon, formerly a program management analyst at MIRI, has taken on a new leadership role as our chief operating officer.
As MIRI’s second-in-command, Malo will be ta... |
b33dd55e-2bc6-4f91-b1ca-8d7a4dbfa546 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Local Speech Recognition with Whisper
I've been a heavy user of dictation, off and on, as my wrists have gotten better and worse. I've mostly used the built-in Mac and Android recognition: Mac isn't great, Android is pretty good, neither has improved much over the past ~5y despite large improvements in what should be ... |
656d9a63-be75-4871-b40c-f238153470a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New method predicts who will respond to lithium therapy
|
eba5b6d3-5f72-43dd-9c41-58f1666574da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Me, Myself, and AI: the Situational Awareness Dataset (SAD) for LLMs
TLDR: We build a comprehensive benchmark to measure situational awareness in LLMs. It consists of 16 tasks, which we group into 7 categories and 3 aspects of situational awareness (self-knowledge, situational inferences, and taking actions).
We test... |
64306985-2bb5-4cbd-8af6-e01235abd5ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Improving long-run civilisational robustness
People trying to guard civilisation against catastrophe usually focus on one specific kind of catastrophe at a time. This can be useful for building concrete knowledge with some certainty in order for others to build on it. However, there are disadvantages to this catastrop... |
54996fcb-3179-4ace-be83-8cb8c0542364 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When will computer programming become an unskilled job (if ever)?
I expect for there to be a delay in deployment, but I think ultimately OpenAI is aiming as a near term goal to automate intellectually difficult portions of computer programming. Personally, as someone just getting into the tech industry, this is basica... |
dd7f782d-c671-4f8a-b3f0-42c58a3b433c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A useful level distinction
Recently, I've constantly been noticing the importance of a certain sort of distinguishing between something happening in reality, and something happening in your model of reality. In part, I'm noticing it because I've been thinking about it, not vice versa, but I'll explain for a few specif... |
1ba9938a-ceb1-47d2-ae4a-8a56eb7cd00a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Atlanta
Discussion article for the meetup : Atlanta
WHEN: 04 February 2012 06:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 2094 North Decatur Road, Decatur, GA 30033-5367
All,
Our next meeting is February 4th.
From now on we will be meeting every 1st and 3rd Saturday of the month at 6:30pm at Chocolate Coffee in Decatur:
http... |
c3e07c42-af7b-4d2d-8837-c360d778aefe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | UVic AI Ethics Conference
Hello! I'm part of the AI club at the University of Victoria. We want to help expose students and professors at our university to the ideas of AI alignment and AI ethics, and so we are putting together an online conference this November 25th.
Our club website
Eventbrite page
We are looking... |
6ba3e5c7-76e4-4877-8c32-6e48635d09ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do Prediction Markets Work?
TLDR: Prediction markets rely on efficiency, but efficiency is not guaranteed.
Prediction market structures can work. However, they rely on so many different components being in place that they do not consistently create accurate probability.
The systems rely on complete market efficiency... |
642bcbae-78c9-4ac3-8b71-142df9b0b62f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] What Can Internet Ads Teach Us About Persuasion?
How "one weird trick" conquered the Internet. Some excerpt I found interesting:
> Research on persuasion shows the more arguments you list in favor of something, regardless of the quality of those arguments, the more that people tend to believe it,” Norton says.... |
8f3ac51f-6cf2-41a8-9490-2bb68cbe24a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prettified AI Safety Game Cards
Donald Hobson's AI Safety Card Game already has simple cards you can print out on cardstock and cut out, but I wanted a nicer print-on-demand version with illustrated card backs.[1] You can order it here. Major thanks to Mati Roy for helping make this happen, along with Jim Babcock, and... |
5102a253-05f4-44b9-af58-c1d467350248 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Detecting What's Been Seen
Sometimes it makes sense for sites want to treat things differently based on whether the user has seen them. For example, I like sites that highlight new comments (ex: EA Forum and LessWrong) and I'd like them even better if comments didn't lose their "highlighted" status in cases where I ha... |
09394f82-de99-4d0c-8c0a-155de64de08d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Big Advance in Infinite Ethics
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Summary
It is possible that our universe is infinite in both time and space. We might therefore reasonably consider the following question: given some sequences u=(u1,u2,…) and u′=(u′1,u′2,…) (where each ut represents the welfare of persons living ... |
86588551-abe8-4a45-91ee-128e4344c65f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Limits to the Controllability of AGI
Roman Yampolskiy
(Summary by Karl von Wendt and Remmelt Ellen)
This is a summary of the paper “On the Controllability of Artificial Intelligence: An Analysis of Limitations”, which shows that advanced artificial general intelligence (AGI) with the ability to self-improve cannot ... |
5aa3da88-5990-4fc6-bd42-d05073b0167a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | "Normal" is the equilibrium state of past optimization processes
Orienting around the ideas and conclusions involved with AI x-risk can be very difficult. The future possibilities can feel extreme and [far-mode](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/near-far-thinking), even when we whole-heartedly affirm their plausibility.
... |
f46d98b4-6795-4e82-8c66-2c3b0b4789a9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI Governance: A Research Agenda
Allan Dafoe, head of the AI Governance team at FHI has written up a research agenda. It's a very large document, and I haven't gotten around to reading it all, but one of the things I would be most excited about is people in the comments quoting the most important snippets that give a ... |
ab02fe57-0bdd-437d-b6fb-a56446a304d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Consciousness Actually Explained: EC Theory
Greetings!
This has taken too long to make, and I'd like to polish it more, but it's time to release and move on to other things. Apologies for not posting the text here, I was having formatting trouble.
Yes, I attempt to solve/explain consciousness. The main document is ... |
1c640878-ada3-4b01-bafc-7a8b4e06d5d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A rationalist My Little Pony fanfic
For the past two months, I've been writing, and posting, roughly two thousand words a day of "Myou've Gotta be Kidding Me", a story set in a "My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic" fanfic universe, "Chess Game of the Gods". Outside of the sheer NaNoWriMo-like exercise of pushing out n... |
f629cd29-f97f-4fc4-a9be-9297491aa9b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why do theists, undergrads, and Less Wrongers favor one-boxing on Newcomb?
Follow-up to: Normative uncertainty in Newcomb's problem
Philosophers and atheists break for two-boxing; theists and Less Wrong break for one-boxing
Personally, I would one-box on Newcomb's Problem. Conditional on one-boxing for lawful reasons... |
6224deaa-646b-4a42-a750-3f13b37434cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Parable of the Boy Who Cried 5% Chance of Wolf
Epistemic status: a parable making a moderately strong claim about statistics
Once upon a time, there was a boy who cried "there's a 5% chance there's a wolf!"
The villagers came running, saw no wolf, and said "He said there was a wolf and there was not. Thus his pr... |
50582676-3bac-47f4-939f-afc2176815bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Slava!
I want to begin with a musical example. The link is the Coronation Scene from Mussorsky's opera Boris Godunov, in which Boris is crowned Tsar while courtiers sing his praises. The tune is quoted from an old Russian hymn, "Slava Bogu" or "Glory to God." And, if I can trust the English subtitles, it's an apt c... |
fd9a7e61-8824-466b-8b27-682696dd80bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrongers from Austin
As far as I know, there is not a group of Less Wrongers from Austin that has formed yet. I haven't ever seen posts about meet-ups, etc. I would really like to get a group started, but I honestly do not know if there is even a single other member on this site who lives nearby, and I don't part... |
bcde6051-5bdb-476b-940a-b31478d960b7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | CHAI Newsletter #2 2022
07/04/2023, 07:54 CHAI Newsletter + Internship Application
https://mailchi.mp/humancompatible.ai/chai-newsletter -internship-application?e=[UNIQID] 1/9
CHAI Newsletter
This newsletter includes CHAI activities from April 2022 to mid-September
2022
Events
CHAI 2022 annual W orkshop
On the first w... |
7ca1aff7-4f62-4503-b0b4-8949ace8416a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Running a Prediction Market Mafia Game
In a normal game of mafia/werewolf, there are a few high-level strategic elements:
* Night Play: During night phases, the mafia has to choose who to try to kill and the players with night actions (cops, doctors, and in some cases trackers, watchers, vigilantes, etc.) have to ch... |
d5ecea6b-ac3b-4e4c-9134-49bcde4e9f63 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Flag the load-bearing premises
If someone says, "I think your AI safety scheme is horribly flawed because X will go wrong," and you reply "Nah, X will be fine because of Y and Z", then good practice calls for highlighting that Y and Z are important propositions. Y and Z may need to be debated in their own right, espe... |
77c04a6e-74ca-49cc-b8cd-498e4cfe3b93 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How are you dealing with ontology identification?
Not really novel, but I've made this point quite often in recent conversations, so I decided to make a short write-up.
I think a wide range of alignment proposals will somehow have to deal with ontology identification, i.e. mapping an AI's beliefs about the world to a... |
cc8ae89a-bc1a-43d2-b6b9-e6d7e35065a7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | DELBERTing as an Adversarial Strategy
There is an entire subgenre of "reverse scammer" videos on youtube. The way these videos work is, a youtuber waits for a scam call from Pakistan or somewhere. When it becomes obvious that it's a scam, like when the scammer starts asking for a credit card number in order to do so... |
6f10451b-1b1b-4c62-aa85-4bafdc6d9f0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bazant: An alternate covid calculator
Most of what I see people use Microcovid.org for now is estimating risk for large gatherings, which it was not designed for and thus doesn’t handle very well. I spent a few hours going through every covid calculator I could find and this calculator from the Bazant lab at MIT, whil... |
6cb61b3b-ff3a-443c-ade1-9cbe76167447 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What working on AI safety taught me about B2B SaaS sales
Subtitle: you're too poor to use AGI.
WTF is WTP?
In Econ 101, you learn about something called willingness to pay (WTP). WTP is the highest price at which you're willing to buy some good or service. As long as the equilibrium price is less than your WTP, you'... |
8f346930-838d-49a2-b2a6-494ccf037fec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Bath, UK: Agreement, practical meetups, and report from last meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Bath, UK: Agreement, practical meetups, and report from last meetup
WHEN: 02 November 2014 02:00:00PM (+0000)
WHERE: 5-10 James St W, Avon, Bath BA1 2BX
Bath, UK will be having its second meetup this Sun... |
515540c7-8fda-4651-a426-d54c8e44f3bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Require contributions in advance
If you are a person who finds it difficult to tell "no" to their friends, this one weird trick may save you a lot of time!
Scenario 1
Alice: "Hi Bob! You are a programmer, right?"
Bob: "Hi Alice! Yes, I am."
Alice: "I have this cool idea, but I need someone to help me. I am not ... |
983da280-164c-4c9f-879f-8d007e4eed9d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Overcoming Bias
From August 2007 through May 2009, I blogged daily on the topic of human rationality at the econblog [Overcoming Bias](http://www.overcomingbias.com/) by Robin Hanson, getting around a quarter-million monthly pageviews. This then forked off the community blog [Less Wrong](http://lesswrong.com/) , and I... |
26a06178-9388-4eab-b6ef-68b600200cd8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Oracle paper
Available on the arXiv, my paper on [two types of Oracles](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.05541) (AIs constrained to answering questions only), and how to use them more safely.
> An Oracle is a design for potentially high power artificial intelligences (AIs), where the AI is made safe by restricting it to o... |
61077537-6ff6-477d-a2cc-6d7b9adb3780 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Metaculus Predicts Weak AGI in 2 Years and AGI in 10
Just a quick update on predicted timelines. Obviously, there’s no guarantee that Metaculus is 100% reliable + you should look at other sources as well, but I find this concerning.
Weak AGI is now predicted in a little over two years:
https://www.metaculus.com/ques... |
1876b62c-d731-4ac9-ae32-c9fc064f2192 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gettier cases, Rigid Designators, and Referential Opacity
NB: I don't spellcheck these things until I've completed them. This is a WIP. I also find it hard to focus on the writing, while I'm thinking about the argumentation.
I would be grateful if members could overlook some of the errors in the text -- to try to fol... |
78c995d3-4b59-41fd-8b2b-ae72fecd42d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deeply Cover Car Crashes?
When there is a train, plane, or bus crash, it's newsworthy: it doesn't happen very often, lots of lives at stake, lots of people are interested in it. Multiple news outlets will send out reporters, and we will hear a lot of details. On the other hand, a car crash does not get this treatment ... |
21a73afc-7542-4091-88a1-d81766bc12cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Anyone Else Seeking to Help Community Members in Ukraine Who Make Refugee Claims?
Some rationalists and effective altruists in British Columbia have begun mulling over the option of whether they would be able to sponsor a fellow community member living in Ukraine to stay as a refugee in Canada. There is a process b... |
da8a224d-d3d2-4dd4-909e-6d2335a2fa4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Predictions Chi September 15 (September 8 -- cancelled)
Discussion article for the meetup : Predictions Chi September 15 (September 8 -- cancelled)
WHEN: 15 September 2012 01:05:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 1 S. Franklin St, Chicago, IL
Bring your extrapolations, intuitions, wild guesses, and most importantly some ... |
808f9515-85b1-421f-a18e-9a3a7e94f838 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What will be the big-picture implications of the coronavirus, assuming it eventually infects >10% of the world?
Brainstorming some possibilities, not taking myself too seriously:
--2020 will be remembered as a year of death and disruption; the economy will suffer massively, perhaps enough to count as a recession.
--... |
7bd70b5c-df0a-4ee3-bb39-e19e4e0df488 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What’s the likelihood of only sub exponential growth for AGI?
A possible scenario could be that the first confirmed AGI(s) are completely unimpressive, i.e. with equivalent or less capacities than an average 10 year child. And then tremendous effort is put into ’growing’ its capacities with the best results yielding ... |
a763ba47-37fb-4596-8142-008db5dc9741 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What I would do if I wasn’t at ARC Evals
**In which:**I list 9 projects that I would work on if I wasn’t busy working on safety standards at ARC Evals, and explain why they might be good to work on.
**Epistemic status:**I’m prioritizing getting this out fast as opposed to writing it carefully. I’ve thought for at le... |
4bd67367-3904-4c68-bd53-3a1378220a93 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Metaculus Launches Chinese AI Chips Tournament, Supporting Institute for AI Policy and Strategy Research
Metaculus’s Chinese AI Chips Tournament is live: Forecast and support research by the Institute for AI Policy and Strategy (IAPS), a think tank that works to reduce risks from the development and deployment of fron... |
c5fe1f7e-3a5a-4341-b271-41acf44f3859 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Alignment Might Never Be Solved, By Humans or AI
I think it's possible that neither we, nor any future AI system, will manage to solve alignment. By "solving alignment" I mean having a cheap easily-scalable method for aligning AIs of arbitrary capability level to arbitrary goals. Here I will briefly present some argum... |
93d5f595-23f1-47de-b779-5742f0d2886f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | An additional problem with Solomonoff induction
Let's continue from my [previous post](/r/discussion/lw/jhm/understanding_and_justifying_solomonoff_induction/) and look how Solomonoff induction fails to adequately deal with hypercomputation.
You may have heard of the Physical Church-Turing thesis. It's the idea ... |
314b4854-7ff5-4159-b563-874b760c6d50 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Open technical problem: A Quinean proof of Löb's theorem, for an easier cartoon guide
**Motivation**
Löb's theorem is pretty counterintuitive. Speaking informally about one or more agents engaging in logically valid reasoning, the theorem says something like this:
* "If it's believed that believing a particular pro... |
34d48b05-0122-4d3f-8065-3f242a7492e3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Ben Goertzel - The unorthodox path to AGI
hey everyone welcome back to the podcast
today we're talking to ben gertzel who's
actually one of the founders of the agi
research community
he's been interested in this area for
decades really long before most people
were
and he's done a whole bunch of
interesting thinking ar... |
91ed3cc1-e132-4fd9-8b57-a92f8f229765 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Introduction
This series of posts presents our work on the frameworks of “Positive Attractors” and “Inherently Interpretable Architectures” during the AI Safety Camp 2023.
(Note: Sections written by the different team members were marked with their initials in square brackets, since the investigated research strand... |
17374d98-b419-4ba0-a117-153aec1c6789 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should I treat pain differently if it’s “all in my head?”
I sometimes suffer from RSI. I’ve heard several people I respect say that they think most RSI is a psychological phenomenon. My understanding of their view is that they think there’s a feedback loop where you notice your wrists hurting and then you are anxious ... |
9748d9e3-3d26-47f6-8d0d-1c98d6fc22a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preface to CLR's Research Agenda on Cooperation, Conflict, and TAI
The Center on Long-Term Risk (CLR) is focused on reducing risks of astronomical suffering, or s-risks, from transformative artificial intelligence (TAI). S-risks are defined as risks of cosmically significant amounts of suffering[1]. As has been discu... |
1bb2c468-af44-4af8-8c49-1a7b671b86bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Request for input: draft of my "coming out" statement on religious deconversion
Edited 3/4/2012: I shortened up the summary a bit and add the following update:
Thanks for the lively comments. As a preliminary summary of things I've found quite useful/helpful:
* Shorten/transform the document (David_Gerard)
* Remov... |
7b1e82dd-0053-4fca-aa50-f2709cf194a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What OpenAI Told California's Attorney General
In a previously unreported letter, the AI company defends its restructuring plan while attacking critics and making surprising admissions
This is the full text of a post first published on Obsolete, a Substack that I write about the intersection of capitalism, geopolitics... |
fb533e8b-5e8a-4b53-b98c-ed6e508d3ca2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Constraining narrow AI in a corporate setting
I have a question that is extremely practical.
My company is working with AI that is frankly not all that capable. A key example includes text classification that humans do, but that would let us avoid the expense of having a human do it. Off-the-shelf machine learning wo... |
65ea4dec-e23e-4191-a42b-3161addf00e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seriously, what goes wrong with "reward the agent when it makes you smile"?
Suppose you're training a huge neural network with some awesome future RL algorithm with clever exploration bonuses and a self-supervised pretrained multimodal initialization and a recurrent state. This NN implements an embodied agent which ta... |
d505f275-570c-40f5-829e-83ec44f4bb57 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why long-term AI safety is not an issue (IMHO)
Hello
I wanted to share this thought for a long time and now, that I absolutely do not have the time, I will:
I think that an artificial general intelligence (AGI) is not an existential risk for human kind. In other words, long-term artificial intelligence (AI) safety i... |
66250ead-2c9c-4b43-9417-789085094ad5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Fallacy of Dressing Like a Winner
Imagine you are a sprinter, and your one goal in life is to win the 100m sprint in the Olympics. Naturally, you watch the 100m sprint winners of the past in the hope that you can learn something from them, and it doesn't take you long to spot a pattern.
Every one of them can b... |
1603d9e7-8783-4128-a807-8ef881d3708b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Since the "Will COVID-19 survivors suffer lasting disability at a high rate?" thread was posted, has new information emerged that may update those estimates?
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h4GFHbhxE2pfiadhi/will-covid-19-survivors-suffer-lasting-disability-at-a-high |
6e674e00-ce5f-4f9a-a8f7-88d7ad617098 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What exactly did that great AI future involve again?
I've been trying my best to think of something that AGI could do which I really love and deeply endorse.
I can think of some nice things. New kinds of animals. Non-habit-forming heroine. Stupid-pointless-disagreements-between-family-members fixomatic maybe. Turn ev... |
b270f20a-8679-4d54-82f7-319b352dd46f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nyoom
Let me tell you about my scooter.
I have a foldable electric trike scooter slightly heavier than my toddler. It has no pedal option, just footrests.
It can't reverse. It corners badly. It has a little nubbin that's supposed to keep it from unfolding till I deliberately unfold it, but that usually doesn't work.... |
b260344d-7076-443b-b330-01019862a851 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on November 7th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Bangalore Meetup: 22 November 2014 03:56AM
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Bratislava: 10 Nove... |
806d0986-4caa-4bc2-aace-2eee664e5a60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The "hard" problem of consciousness is the least interesting problem of consciousness
Cross-posted from my roam-blog. Nothing new to anyone who's read about these ideas, meant to be a reference for how I think about things.
If you come up with what you think is a decent and useful theory/partial-theory of consciousne... |
13b42be8-08ba-435f-8921-a1492da5f359 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Fast reinforcement learning with generalized policy updates
The combination of reinforcement learning with deep learning is a promising approach to tackle important sequential decisionmaking problems that are currently intractable. One obstacle to overcome is the amount of data needed by learning systems of this type.... |
d24732cc-b474-450e-8f4c-3acfc5baa33d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mud and Despair (Part 4 of "The Sense Of Physical Necessity")
This is the fourth post in a sequence that demonstrates a complete naturalist study, specifically a study of query hugging (sort of), as described in The Nuts and Bolts of Naturalism. For context on this sequence, see the intro post.
“Mud and Despair” is ... |
5ea280d1-2807-45e3-9fb5-4cf8fd8feb14 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on the Repugnant Conclusion
When we accept the repugnant conclusion, we trade lower average utility for greater total utility. This is unavoidable. But the image the repugnant conclusion evokes in many people's minds (of trading higher average toil and squalor for an economic surplus that is spent creating m... |
4b20f1b7-cb5f-4caf-a778-8449bae797f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | White Sphere Hypothesis
Imagine an existence where the only perspective for your entire life (40 years) has been from the inside of a white sphere. In this white sphere, you have no physical body, and there is nothing else in the white sphere with you. You only exist in this white sphere as a brain with perfectly work... |
7c062066-dc9a-4a4f-b395-7f12843c5d9f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Updates to the research team, and a major donation
We have several major announcements to make, covering new developments in the two months since our [2017 strategy update](https://intelligence.org/2017/04/30/2017-updates-and-strategy/):
1. On May 30th, we received a surprise **$1.01 million donation** from an [Ethe... |
2737f0fe-9e7a-4be3-83c4-6149b46302fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW main on June 14th. The following week's summary is here.
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Atlanta LessWrong June Meetup: Effective Altruism: 15 June 2013 07:00PM
* Berlin Social Meetup: 15 June 2013 05:00PM
* Bratislava Meetup IV.: 24 ... |
4a4dadec-4179-49ac-86f6-d7f723052847 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scott Adams mentions Prediction Markets and explains Cognitive Blindness bias
|
ef2fb1d5-4afa-4ca0-bd53-e93369b59061 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Decision theory does not imply that we get to have nice things
(*Note: I wrote this with editing help from Rob and Eliezer. Eliezer's responsible for a few of the paragraphs.*)
A common confusion I see in the tiny fragment of the world that knows about [logical decision theory](https://arbital.com/p/logical_dt/) (... |
a08d2140-99aa-4e48-b5f3-3f4b8e05e602 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Longevity: A critical look at "Loss of epigenetic information as a cause of mammalian aging"
Introduction: Epigenetic information loss as a cause of mammalian aging
I have generally been uncompelled by theories of aging which focus on accumulation of error at the cellular level, NAD+ decline, mutation accumulation, fr... |
97be3915-049b-4376-bbc0-8153f04eada1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Estimating training compute of Deep Learning models
by Jaime Sevilla, Lennart Heim, Marius Hobbhahn, Tamay Besiroglu, and Anson Ho
You can find the complete article here. We provide a short summary below.
In short: To estimate the compute used to train a Deep Learning model we can either: 1) directly count the numbe... |
0781889e-4f91-4bc0-813f-19d7185cac9b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Diet Advice?
So, I know a number of friends on Paleo who recommend it. I recently read through a lot of bulletproofexec, who recommends his own variant of paleo. I care about my health, and so I need to resolve my diet and their advice somehow. Summarized data points:
1. My diet is about 80% wheat, and the rest is s... |
2769d432-db25-47d2-9330-c1cebf6c934c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reaching out to people with the problems of friendly AI
There have been a few attempts to reach out to broader audiences in the past, but mostly in very politically/ideologically loaded topics.
After seeing several examples of how little understanding people have about the difficulties in creating a friendly AI, I'm ... |
1d6341ee-ca08-461f-b9de-60a69e5488f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AISafety.info: What is the "natural abstractions hypothesis"?
AISafety.info writes AI safety intro content. We'd appreciate any feedback.
Introduction
The natural abstraction hypothesis (NAH) claims:
* Our physical world “abstracts well” into high-level abstractions of low-level systems.
* These abstractions are... |
c7782ac9-e876-44e1-af2f-79e7303e379d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationalistic Losing
Playing to learn
I like losing. I don't even think that losing is necessarily evil. Personally, I believe this has less to do with a desire to lose and more to do with curiosity about the game-space.
Technically, my goals are probably shifted into some form of meta-winning — I like to understand ... |
1ce32f74-4bcb-49bf-ae47-887f3caf5ac0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Delegative Inverse Reinforcement Learning
We introduce a reinforcement-like learning setting we call *Delegative Inverse Reinforcement Learning* (DIRL). In DIRL, the agent can, at any point of time, delegate the choice of action to an "advisor". The agent knows neither the environment nor the reward function, whereas ... |
9c355b68-88ac-474d-ac8b-ae0d26185ad2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Infinite Ethics: Infinite Problems
1 Introduction
(Crossposted from my blog--the formatting is probably a bit better there.)
> With entity, dementedly meant to be infinite
—Eminem.
(Crossposted from my blog). The formatting is better there.
I never had a Nietzsche phase.
You know the way lots of people get obs... |
bbb4a680-6700-403d-95da-57be202f1e3d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Importance of foresight evaluations within ELK
This post makes a few basic observations regarding the importance of foresight-based evaluations within ELK [[Christiano et al 2021](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/qHCDysDnvhteW7kRd/arc-s-first-technical-report-eliciting-latent-knowledge)]:
1. Without foresight-bas... |
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