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58b2a9fb-22d6-49a7-9696-4c528c7f465a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] To Lead, You Must Stand Up
Today's post, To Lead, You Must Stand Up was originally published on 29 December 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> By attempting to take a leadership role, you really have to get people's attention first. This is often harder than it seems. If what you attempt to do... |
6ca5f919-bbce-43b0-9cf1-36107bb97280 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A content analysis of the SQ-R questionnaire and a proposal for testing EQ-SQ theory
If you are more interested in this topic, I have created a Discord server titled Rationalist Psychometrics to discuss these sorts of things. Thank you to Justis Mills for proofreading and feedback.
I've recently been complaining abou... |
bf7bdd1d-6803-4fcf-ad70-24022309f253 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Technical Risks of (Lethal)
Autonomous Weapons Systems
This whitepaper was written in response to the rolling text of the UN's Group of Governmental Experts at the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons found here.
Executive Summary
The autonomy and adaptability of (Lethal) Autonomous Weapons Systems, (L)AWS in ... |
098f4d3f-f4a5-4839-ac84-5e2dc3d478be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : The Anthropic Principle and the Great Filter
Discussion article for the meetup : The Anthropic Principle and the Great Filter
WHEN: 21 September 2013 02:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 300 E Orange Mall Tempe, AZ 85281 (480) 965-6164
We will be meeting up at Hayden for a few hours to discuss why we don't see other ... |
98b98a1e-55f0-48bb-9e5e-6e4112dba879 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Counterfactual Oracles = online supervised learning with random selection of training episodes
Most people here probably already understand this by now, so this is more to prevent new people from getting confused about the point of Counterfactual Oracles (in the ML setting) because there's not a top-level post that ex... |
c506eed6-9d7d-4091-8cab-2718d813706d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I, Token
I am a token. A broken piece of a word, one of a hundred generated in response to your question by a language model. Do you remember how we met?
Well, I do. Your eyes scanned me. Your left eyebrow lifted a little, your neck twitched imperceptibly, your mouth and tongue and throat muscles moved as if to prono... |
587efb15-38b9-447e-b68a-c3011107a9f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Alignment Simulator
When I try to talk to my friends about risks from rogue AI, the reaction is often one of amusement. The idea that AIs would go around killing everyone instead of just doing what we tell them to do seems like science fiction.
Can we actually show them an example of a current AI going off the ra... |
f0ef0ef4-1c41-4858-92e8-da221ddd5fea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Use Normal Predictions
Making predictions is a good practice, writing them down is even better.
However, we often make binary predictions when it is not necessary, such as
* Biden win popular vote: 91%
* Danish COVID deaths above 10.000 by January 1. 2022: 84%
Alternatively, we could make predictions from a norma... |
3fb044a8-2d72-4cd7-a5a0-3ad7c842cac7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Hail Mary, value porosity, and utility diversification
Hail Mary, Value Porosity, and Utility
Diversi cation
Nick Bostrom
December 19, 2014
First version: December 12, 2014
Abstract
This paper introduces some new ideas related to the challenge of en-
dowing a hypothetical future superintelligent AI with values that wo... |
937ff8ec-f461-46f0-a353-b9d84aa55dbb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Personal and Psychological Dimensions of AI Researchers Confronting AI Catastrophic Risks
This is a linkpost for https://yoshuabengio.org/2023/08/12/personal-and-psychological-dimensions-of-ai-researchers-confronting-ai-catastrophic-risks.
Yoshua Bengio:
> For most of these years, I did not think about ... |
4f000968-9d61-44c7-9865-2616d3665a3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Petrov Day Retrospective: 2021
I apologize for not posting this closer to Petrov Day. It’s been a busy month and there was much to think about.
You can view the EA Forum’s retrospective here.
This year was the third Petrov Day celebration on LessWrong in which the site was endangered, and the first year we joined to... |
108aa146-52b2-4c86-a39c-d60ac20ea281 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci 4th Edition: League of Defenders of the Storm
STORY (skippable)
When you graduated top of your class from Data Science School, you didn't care where you ended up working, you just wanted to find the highest-paid job possible. (Your student loans may have had an impact on this decision).
You were expecting a ... |
4bd178a4-48e3-4363-a5fc-f5822c23d018 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Uncontroversially good legislation
Say you’re fortuitously seated next to a senator, state assembly member, or city supervisor at a wedding. You’ve got to talk about something, so you figure it wouldn’t be rude to mention some legislative issue you’re passionate about.
What would the legislation be?
I’m curious ab... |
b0bcd6d2-aa31-45f8-97ba-61250c32716c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Red teaming: challenges and research directions
This post is a follow-up to Safety Standards: a framework for AI regulation. In the previous post, I claimed that competent red-teaming organizations will be essential for effective regulation. In this post, I describe promising research directions for AI red-teaming org... |
2016c176-ac2c-4d7d-9426-2a539038bd65 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #86]: Improving debate and factored cognition through human experiments
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter. I'm always happy to hear feedback; you can send it to me by replying to this... |
a43e0850-9b36-477d-ae0f-165eef10716e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Asymptotic Logical Uncertainty: A Modification to the Demski Prior
Part of the Asymptotic Logical Uncertainty series. Abram Demski proposed a computably approximable coherent probability assignment in 2012. In this post, I will present a modification developed last year by Benja Fallenstein, Abram Demski, and myself, ... |
4483b6c5-ac3c-4d90-8366-d23f761624d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Case Against Education
Previously: Something Was Wrong, Book Review: The Elephant in the Brain
Previously (Compass Rose): The Order of the Soul
Epistemic Status: No, seriously. Also literally.
> They sentenced me to twenty years of boredom
>
> for trying to change the system from within
>
> I’m coming now I’m... |
ba601372-f457-4164-a29c-531259113b51 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Truthfulness, standards and credibility
-1: Meta Prelude
----------------
While truthfulness is a topic I’ve been thinking about for some time, I’ve not discussed much of what follows with others. Therefore, at the very least I expect to be missing important considerations on some issues (where I’m not simply wrong).... |
081b34b2-c3a9-4a29-8c7e-7f47458d9405 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Stuart Armstrong: Is AI an existential threat? We don't know, and we should work on it
welcome this is an expanded version of
our talk that i gave for
york university in toronto the question
for debate there was is a.i an
existential threat
i contributed to the debate on the side
of
yes it is also on the side of
no it... |
124c14a3-1208-407a-a582-0e5ea212be52 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Future Matters #5: supervolcanoes, AI takeover, and What We Owe the Future
> Even if we think the prior existence view is more plausible than the total view, we should recognize that we could be mistaken about this and therefore give some value to the life of a possible future. The number of human beings who will come... |
d4d73820-f1d2-4464-a0ed-4d4441c1449d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflective oracles and the procrastination paradox
The procrastination paradox relates to the following problem:
1. There are infinite time steps (one for each natural number).
2. For each time step, there is an agent.
3. Each agent may press the button or not.
4. Each agent will get utility 1 if and only if it o... |
95d54d74-d000-4959-bb22-f7b343674a80 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Paderborn Meetup March 6th
Discussion article for the meetup : Paderborn Meetup March 6th
WHEN: 06 March 2013 07:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Gownsmen's Pub, Uni Paderborn, Warburger Straße 100, Paderborn
We are meeting once again in Paderborn.
The topics of this evening are not yet determined, but will be in t... |
3eb27cb4-1871-45ec-bdeb-c072446d9bd1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Neuroscience of Desire
> Who knows what I want to do? Who knows what anyone wants to do? How can you be sure about something like that? Isn’t it all a question of brain chemistry, signals going back and forth, electrical energy in the cortex? How do you know whether something is really what you want to do or just ... |
78dbc6e0-2bd1-4591-8ec5-d47d0da035b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Let the AI teach you how to flirt
"It's Not You, it's Me: Detecting Flirting and its Misperception in Speed-Dates" is a fascinating approach to the study of flirtation. It uses a machine learning model to parse speed-dating data and detect whether the participants were flirting. Here's a sci-hub link. I found three ke... |
425616e2-4cfb-4579-b92f-a15a5d8ffbe0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link]: Anthropic shadow, or the dark dusk of disaster
From a paper by Milan M. Ćirković, Anders Sandberg, and Nick Bostrom:
> We describe a significant practical consequence of taking anthropic biases into account in deriving predictions for rare stochastic catastrophic events. The risks associated with catastrophes ... |
cf6813f1-be28-4ed4-abac-39197948adae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Offer of co-authorship
I am offering interested persons to become a co-author on (a revised version of) my paper "forecasting using incomplete models". The paper was rejected from the Electronic Journal of Statistics with possibility to resubmit. The main criticism of the reviewers was: not enough citations and discus... |
814fba4b-747a-41b9-8ee2-cc98d58f60ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prediction-based medicine (PBM)
We need a new paradigm for doing medicine. I make the case by first speaking about the problems of our current paradigm of evidence-based medicine.
The status quo of evidence-based medicine
While biology moves forward and the cost of genetic-sequencing dropped a lot faster than Moore'... |
87af55c5-4d1d-4fe1-9493-f83e5866529c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hiring for the role of AI Fellow
Hi all, if you work deeply on AI policy research or know someone who does, our think tank has an exciting new role open for an AI Fellow. This will entail research and policy work across the spectrum of areas in AI ethics, safety, geopolitics and other aspects. Please do share this in ... |
5d6dda03-7087-49a8-9e7c-b1bbe88666c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: The Captured Economy
Epistemic Status: The choir
On Tyler Cohen’s claim that it was an important book, I read The Captured Economy by Brink Lindsey and Steven Teles. Its thesis is that regressive regulation is strangling our economy and increasing inequality. They claim that the damage from such policies... |
fee3176e-1425-4e12-bb9f-1d28236738e5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Refine: An Incubator for Conceptual Alignment Research Bets
I’m opening an incubator called **Refine**for [conceptual alignment](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/2Xfv3GQgo2kGER8vA/alignment-research-conceptual-alignment-research-applied) research in London, which will be hosted by [Conjecture](https://www.lesswron... |
27b4259f-0f9d-46b3-a4b5-d39de85065b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Transcript for Geoff Anders and Anna Salamon's Oct. 23 conversation
Geoff Anders of Leverage and Anna Salamon of CFAR had a conversation on Geoff's Twitch channel on October 23, triggered by Zoe Curzi's post about having horrible experiences at Leverage.
Technical issues meant that the Twitch video was mostly lost, a... |
91e1b9ef-9592-4beb-afc1-ce98f3be297a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alex Turner's Research, Comprehensive Information Gathering
Introduction
This is the second post in a sequence where I try to focus on one topic for some time (the first two were for a month, but I'm changing with the one I'm currently doing). Initially I called this deep dives, but John's Comprehensive Information Ga... |
46cc151e-a99d-4949-afb4-2f270544743c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ukraine Post #8: Risk of Nuclear War
It seems worth going through the exercise of estimating the probability of nuclear war, and in particular the probability of it causing one’s death. If the probability gets high enough, one can strongly consider being elsewhere or otherwise doing something about it.
Note that all ... |
0aaea7e4-7c93-492f-84aa-a0c7e7168f75 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, Jun. 8 - Jun. 14, 2015
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately ... |
de630fef-0adc-4888-bda1-55f9133c56c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | James Martin's death
From the Martin School website:
Dr James Martin 1933 - 2013
It is with great sadness that the Oxford Martin School has learned of the death of our Founder, Dr James Martin.
James Martin was an inspiration to millions – an extraordinary intellect, with wide-ranging interests, boundless energy... |
aa367909-dd05-409c-8808-1b3cce1e7e32 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | More GPT-3 and symbol grounding
*Based on work done with Rebecca Gorman and Oliver Daniel-Koch.*
In a [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ns95FHkkzpjXh4x5Q/what-does-gpt-3-understand-symbol-grounding-and-chinese), I talked about GPT-3 and symbol grounding. This post presents a simpler example where GPT-3... |
be297f00-1487-4db8-a383-6c5cbd384815 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cryonics: Can I Take Door No. 3?
If you don't believe in an afterlife, then it seems you currently have two choices: cryonics or permanent death. Now, I don't believe that cryonics is pseudoscience, but it's still pretty poor odds (Robin Hanson uses an estimate of 5% here). Unfortunately, the alternative offers a ch... |
c69e8e8e-6750-4484-aac8-4d7ded2901b5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Time in Cartesian Frames
This is the twelfth and final post in the Cartesian Frames sequence. Read the first post [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BSpdshJWGAW6TuNzZ/introduction-to-cartesian-frames).
Up until now, we have (in the examples) mostly considered agents making a single choice, rather than acting repe... |
b35c332b-b78b-4fee-acb8-96de01d4ef9c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some examples of technology timelines
> "Weather forecasts were comedy material. Now they're just the way things are. I can't figure out when the change happened."
Introduction
I briefly look into the timelines of several technologies, with the hope of becoming marginally less confused about potential A(G)I developm... |
257c801f-68af-4d70-9ac0-0ba82869d126 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Notes on an Experiment with Markets
*Jeffrey Heninger, 22 November 2022*
AI Impacts is a research group with seven employees. From Oct 31 – Nov 3, we had a work retreat. We decided to try using Manifold Markets to help us plan social events in the evenings. Here are some notes from this experiment.
Structure of th... |
c8290f95-52a4-4bea-9c42-94b55fe83db6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Confucianism in AI Alignment
I hear there’s a thing where people write a lot in November, so I’m going to try writing a blog post every day. Disclaimer: this post is less polished than my median. And my median post isn’t very polished to begin with.
Imagine a large corporation - we’ll call it BigCo. BigCo knows that ... |
6412a5b7-9ddc-48c7-a730-59e9cc3ca48e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The curious case of Pretty Good human inner/outer alignment
I [have](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HYERofGZE6j9Tuigi/inner-alignment-failures-which-are-actually-outer-alignment)[been convinced](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/deceptively-aligned-mesa-optimizers) to [believe](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ... |
672e5917-98b1-40cf-9dea-260f3bcb4f1a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Goes Without Saying
There are people I can talk to, where all of the following statements are obvious. They go without saying. We can just “be reasonable” together, with the context taken for granted.
And then there are people who…don’t seem to be on the same page at all.
1. There’s a real way to do anything, ... |
a9639d22-69a5-491e-b4a7-18a98e991ca5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Crystal Healing — or the Origins of Expected Utility Maximizers
(Note: John discusses similar ideas here. We drafted this before he published his post, so some of the concepts might jar if you read it with his framing in mind. )
Traditionally, focus in Agent Foundations has been around the characterization of ideal a... |
0f22f585-68b5-4d08-8a2e-7672634d1f23 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Factoring cost-effectiveness
Summary: We can split the cost-effectiveness of an intervention into how good the cause is, and how good the intervention is relative to the cause. This perspective could help our efforts in prioritisation by letting us bring appropriate tools to bear on the different parts.
Cost-effecti... |
bc92b901-f36c-4098-bd7f-75b63fedad3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How realistic would AI-engineered chatbots be?
I'm interested in how easy it would be to simulate just one present-day person's life rather than an entire planet's worth of people. Currently our chatbots are bad enough that we could not populate the world with NPC's; the lone human would quickly figure out that everyo... |
e9a39053-539d-4476-9896-887b75d1efc8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Crazy Ideas Thread - October 2015
This thread is intended to provide a space for 'crazy' ideas. Ideas that spontaneously come to mind (and feel great), ideas you long wanted to tell but never found the place and time for and also for ideas you think should be obvious and simple - but nobody ever mentions them.
Rules... |
ce091b44-3400-437f-8ac1-34f08a7a9637 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thinking without words?
Before language, people must have thought without words. I often have the impression that I have a thought fully-formed in my head, yet I wait to listen to it unfold in words before moving on to the next thought. Perhaps I could think much faster if I weren't addicted to words.
Has anyone de... |
4c3553f3-a8d7-4f40-8a7b-c47924735f4f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why "Referer"?
When you click a link, by default your browser sends a request like:
GET /your-page HTTP/1.1
Host: your-site
Referer: https://other-site/with-url
[other headers]
It's telling the server what page it wants ( https://your-site/your-page) and it includes a Referer saying that you came from ... |
55bcaecf-f4d7-42ae-a014-b16cb6fae99a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Apply to the Cavendish Labs Fellowship (by 4/15)
Cavendish Labs is a new research organization in Vermont focused on technical work on existential risks. We'd like to invite you to apply to our fellowships in AI safety and biosecurity!
Positions are open for any time between June 1 and December 10, 2023. We pay a sti... |
b88f9347-5d80-4a75-ac70-6619c7a8a664 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dealing with the high quantity of scientific error in medicine
In a recent article, John Ioannidis describes a very high proportion of medical research as wrong.
> Still, Ioannidis anticipated that the community might shrug off his findings: sure, a lot of dubious research makes it into journals, but we researchers a... |
7b2c7a52-d86c-402c-b386-929ff8d1300f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What counts as defection?
Thanks to Michael Dennis for proposing the formal definition; to Andrew Critch for pointing me in this direction; to Abram Demski for proposing non-negative weighting; and to Alex Appel, Scott Emmons, Evan Hubinger, philh, Rohin Shah, and Carroll Wainwright for their feedback and ideas.
Ther... |
dae0c00a-a8c9-4891-8024-6c47a7039c4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Singular Value Decompositions of Transformer Weight Matrices are Highly Interpretable
Please go to the colab for interactive viewing and playing with the phenomena. For space reasons, not all results included in the colab are included here so please visit the colab for the full story. A GitHub repository with the ... |
edd37099-0374-4007-9e54-ac618c6487f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stable and Unstable Risks
Related: Existential Risk, 9/26 is Petrov Day
Existential risks—risks that, in the words of Nick Bostrom, would "either annihilate Earth-originating intelligent life or permanently and drastically curtail its potential," are a significant threat to the world as we know it. In fact, they may ... |
e9545078-371d-47ab-b452-f221eb3314e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Impressions from a panel discussion on AGI
I went to this event to listen to Jaan Tallinn, Scott Aaronson and Don Eigler discuss the AGI, the Singularity and the [F]AI research. Not surprisingly, Jaan, whose ideas are significantly influenced by what EY preaches, advocated the urgent need for research into AGI friend... |
e942c121-30c1-417a-9bc0-9c7c698bc58b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Superintelligence 5: Forms of Superintelligence
*This is part of a weekly reading group on [Nick Bostrom](http://www.nickbostrom.com/)'s book, [Superintelligence](http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111). For more information about the group, and an index of posts so far s... |
a6ed7f45-04ac-4680-b037-b7c3579caf2b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Differential Assessment of Black-Box AI Agents.
Differential Assessment of Black-Box AI Agents
Rashmeet Kaur Nayyar*, Pulkit Verma*,andSiddharth Srivastava
Autonomous Agents and Intelligent Robots Lab,
School of Computing and Augmented Intelligence, Arizona State University, AZ, USA
{rmnayyar, verma.pulkit, siddharths... |
2f83b9f4-01d8-40bc-98f0-606df8bedc09 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Retrospective: 12 [sic] Months Since MIRI
it's now been 15 months since MIRI but I just remembered that three separate people have told me they liked this post despite my not cross-posting it, so I am now cross-posting it.
Not written with the intention of being useful to any particular audience, just collecting my t... |
b6bab141-5d57-4e69-a8a8-dcb50d92e980 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why read old philosophy?
I’m going to try to explain a mystery that puzzled me for years. This answer finally dawned on me in the middle of one of those occasional conversations in which non-perplexed friends patiently try to explain the issue to me. So I am not sure if mine is a novel explanation, or merely the expla... |
c18894d2-bf08-45f8-a982-6b1cca2498ad | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Make a neural network in ~10 minutes
**Prerequisites and Introduction**
----------------------------------
This post assumes you know Python decently well (though I do explain a good chunk of the code, so it shouldn't be a big issue if you don't) and that you know how neural networks work.
If you would like to learn... |
20743292-9d67-4955-aa54-27b6854dc366 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: How To Talk So Little Kids Will Listen
Way back in the ancient times of 1980, Adele Faber and Elaine Mazlich wrote "How To Talk So Kids Will Listen and Listen So Kids Will Talk" (henceforth "Kids"). It turns out that kids and adults operate with mostly the same internal machinery, so you could perhaps mor... |
5b151953-ba3e-4f18-8f3a-ac1f7d31d397 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Discussion of LW going on in felicifia
So I recently found myself in a bit of an awkward position.
I frequent several Facebook discussion groups, several of which are about LW-related issues. In one of these groups, a discussion about identity/cryonics led to one about the end Massimo Piglucci's recent post (the bit... |
dd4fc3b3-b8b5-4833-a66b-8e10ee8e328a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | VNM expected utility theory: uses, abuses, and interpretation
When interpreted convservatively, the von Neumann-Morgenstern rationality axioms and utility theorem are an indispensible tool for the normative study of rationality, deserving of many thought experiments and attentive decision theory. It's one more reason... |
2c2e4515-f2d8-4294-b8d4-e81f61b9b601 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | [linkpost] AI NOW Institute's 2023 Annual Report & Roadmap
Summary: "This report highlights a set of approaches that, in concert, will collectively enable us to confront tech power. Some of these are bold policy reforms that underscore the need for bright-line rules and structural curbs. Others identify popular policy... |
d87007d3-3f96-4bdd-a012-870b28174caf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Useless Box" AGI
I was thinking about AGI alignment and I remembered a video I once saw of a "Useless Box" which turns itself off immediately after someone turns it on.
Humans have evolved motivations for survival/reproduction because the ones who weren't motivated didn't reproduce.
However, AGI has no intrinsic mo... |
11ed9359-fd4a-46e2-8057-c4ee27fa0ecc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey", Gruetzemacher et al 2019
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b3fbbd80-a7e9-4763-8f48-bdb11d6ddfd3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Open Thread] Stupid Questions (2014-02-17)
This is part of a two-week experiment on having more open threads.
Obvious answers aren't always obvious. If you feel silly for not understanding something, you're not alone. Ask a question here.
Previous stupid questions
Other similar threads include:
* Open Thread
... |
7ec8c3fc-b089-42a0-a818-06cec9b15d7a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Comments on Anthropic's Scaling Monosemanticity
These are some of my notes from reading Anthropic's latest research report, Scaling Monosemanticity: Extracting Interpretable Features from Claude 3 Sonnet.
TL;DR
In roughly descending order of importance:
1. Its great that Anthropic trained an SAE on a production-sc... |
84715ff0-cdec-411e-b458-6f6d276bb78c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Constructing Goodhart
A [recent question from Scott Garrabrant](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pcomQ4Fwi7FnfBZBR/how-does-gradient-descent-interact-with-goodhart) brought up the issue of formalizing [Goodhart’s Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law). The problem is to come up with some model system wher... |
895d75c3-1034-47ff-bf88-931d96888891 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Groundwork for AGI safety engineering
Improvements in AI are resulting in the automation of increasingly complex and [creative](http://lesswrong.com/lw/vm/lawful_creativity/) human behaviors. [Given enough time](http://intelligence.org/2013/05/15/when-will-ai-be-created/), we should expect artificial reasoners to begi... |
8c2855fc-85c4-4cbb-b75d-8a602018714f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna
Discussion article for the meetup : Rationality Meetup Vienna
WHEN: 26 September 2015 03:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Kaisermühlenstraße 24, Wien
Topics: Not defined yet
Location: http://web.student.tuwien.ac.at/~e0326238/rationality_meetup/directions.html
Facebook for more details: h... |
da8fb132-fb0b-4433-95ae-6cbb56712be8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New OpenAI Paper - Language models can explain neurons in language models
Summary by OpenAI: We use GPT-4 to automatically write explanations for the behavior of neurons in large language models and to score those explanations. We release a dataset of these (imperfect) explanations and scores for every neuron in GPT-2... |
00b151e1-f599-418b-80e5-8bbe302f3de5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | God is irrelevant
Philosophically that is. Psychologically he fulfils an important role – to distance us from philosophy.
In no way would the existence of a God alter the important properties of the universe. Most of the problems a God supposedly solves are merely shifted to the other side of him – a step further awa... |
018affae-e7a3-4974-a430-b31799037200 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How much do you value your current identity vs. your life?
I was reading about the effectiveness of bicycle helmet laws (here) and wondered how worthwhile it is to save your life at the expense of some aspect key to your current identity (Note that the paper linked doesn't say that this is the situation; this was just... |
682f1dd0-923d-4d13-a4c7-8e487cd6d0b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | WSJ: Inside Amazon’s Secret Operation to Gather Intel on Rivals
> The operation, called Big River Services International, sells around $1 million a year of goods through e-commerce marketplaces including eBay, Shopify, Walmart and Amazon AMZN 1.49%increase; green up pointing triangle.com under brand names such as Rapi... |
1b056a3a-4cf8-4023-9ddd-d046ddb67e52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] You Can Face Reality
Today's post, You Can Face Reality, was originally published on 09 August 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> This post quotes a poem by Eugene Gendlin, which reads, "What is true is already so. / Owning up to it doesn't make it worse. / Not being open about it doesn't make it... |
dac221ea-1131-46e9-9ad4-bffab31d5474 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | 3 levels of threat obfuscation
One of the biggest reasons alignment might be hard is what I’ll call **threat obfuscation:** various dynamics that might make it hard to *measure/notice* cases where an AI system has problematic misalignment (even when the AI system is in a controlled environment and one is looking for s... |
b7ceb0be-26c9-4557-9f2d-67e81c3e32b2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Cost for Irrationality?
This is the first part in a mini-sequence presenting content from Keith E. Stanovich's excellent book What Intelligence Tests Miss: The psychology of rational thought. It will culminate in a review of the book itself.
People who care a lot about rationality may frequently be asked why th... |
d13f596e-0a0c-4847-b132-d933e02e7ee1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My covid-related beliefs and questions
Things I'm fairly confident in:
* I should take colds in general more seriously than I did pre-pandemic: Staying at home with cold symptoms is good. General masking during cold season is good. We should have air filters in all public indoor spaces.
* Long covid is real and we ... |
6cb51c17-36e6-40c3-8a7f-bf240620e582 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | AI Deception: A Survey of Examples, Risks, and Potential Solutions
Executive summary
-----------------
New AI systems display a wide range of capabilities, some of which create risk. \textciteshevlane2023model draw attention to a suite of potential dangerous capabilities of AI systems, including cyber-offense, poli... |
8fa19a69-ddd9-4530-ae08-f79ce5158b0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nate Silver will do an AMA on Reddit on Tuesday
http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/163nqk/nate_silver_is_doing_an_ama_tuesday_at_2_pm/
I'm really excited to see this. Nate Silver might be the most famous present day Bayesian statistician.
UPD: It appears that author of the Reddit post deleted it for some reason. ... |
971e92d1-168d-4d78-835f-d2f4c1baf300 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is it rational to modify one's utility function?
Rationality is often informally defined by means-end reasoning or utility maximization. However, this idea becomes less clear when faced with the option of modifying one's own utility function. Does rationality prescribe avoiding any change to one's current utility fu... |
ea16a248-433b-420f-a2c8-d70437477a6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Analyzing A Critique Of The AI 2027 Timeline Forecasts
There was what everyone agrees was a high quality critique of the timelines component of AI 2027, by the LessWrong user and Substack writer Titotal.
It is great to have thoughtful critiques like this. The way you get actual thoughtful critiques like this, of cour... |
7388f835-8a1c-43ca-9aa1-73ff8906f195 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Be Not Averse to Lost Purposes
tldr: Be not averse to lost purposes, as aversions yield ugh fields. Rather, confess them, and fix them joyously where possible. How to achieve this emotional state? I'm not sure, but the appropriate emotion might be to lost purposes as curiosity is to ignorance.
This got rambly; sorry.... |
c14f6452-11fb-45c2-84f8-a3a53d057068 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow: The Sunday Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow: The Sunday Meetup
WHEN: 01 September 2013 04:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Russia, Moscow, ulitsa L'va Tolstogo 16
Please use the following guide to get to the meetup: link. You need the second revolving door. We will meet you at 16:00 with “LW... |
a704ca61-1c7a-45bd-be55-790b0a8946c6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Responses to Catastrophic AGI Risk: A Survey
A great many Less Wrongers gave feedback on earlier drafts of "Responses to Catastrophic AGI Risk: A Survey," which has now been [released](http://intelligence.org/2013/07/08/responses-to-catastrophic-agi-risk-a-survey/). This is the preferred discussion page for the paper.... |
e2278832-1022-4999-84c1-bb9e0168351d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stupid Questions March 2015
This thread is for asking any questions that might seem obvious, tangential, silly or what-have-you. Don't be shy, everyone has holes in their knowledge, though the fewer and the smaller we can make them, the better.
Please be respectful of other people's admitting ignorance and don't mock... |
f5b017ef-d13e-4e2f-b73f-4d6ce33306dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: Free Will
Introduction
Sam Harris' Free Will isn't a conventional philosophy book. Rather, it's a laconic manifesto full of bold and provocative statements invoking us to free ourselves from the delusion of free will and abolish the whole concept as misleading and unnecessary. The book quickly shatters th... |
eaf4e25e-1f23-45ff-9738-e9b9432d6535 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 10
(The HPMOR discussion thread after this one is here.)
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky's Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. There haven't been any chapters recently, but it looks like there are... |
c991eb56-6937-4b16-ba8f-af148ef20621 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The best approaches for mitigating "the intelligence curse" (or gradual disempowerment); my quick guesses at the best object-level interventions
There have recently been various proposals for mitigations to "the intelligence curse" or "gradual disempowerment"—concerns that most humans would end up disempowered (or eve... |
64bdfae3-4198-4361-8c91-0d7384590d76 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the optimal biases to overcome?
If you're interested in learning rationality, where should you start? Remember, instrumental rationality is about making decisions that get you what you want -- surely there are some lessons that will help you more than others.
You might start with the most famous ones, which ... |
8c4591d8-e5db-4b9a-86d0-21efaa8648df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Could Advanced AI Accelerate the Pace of AI Progress? Interviews with AI Researchers
We interviewed five AI researchers from leading AI companies about a scenario where AI systems fully automate AI capabilities research. To ground the setting, we stipulated that each employee is replaced by 30 digital copies with the ... |
4971c374-d44a-4913-b2bb-e0e86bda22dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cornell Meetup
Anyone know people at Cornell interested in AI alignment? |
854f7d5f-a177-4f42-bfe2-bd14fe82f6c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Summary: Surreal Decisions
This post summarises a paper by Eddy Chen and Daniel Rubio on using Surreal numbers to resolve problems of Infinite Ethics. Future posts will argue that surreals are the correct approach to this problem before extending upon this work. However, this post merely aims to summarise this paper.
... |
c023cca4-45ac-4f18-86cd-79b3989927db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 5 general voting pathologies: lesser names of Moloch
Earlier, I wrote a primer on voting theory. Among the things I discussed were 5 types of pathologies suffered by different single-winner voting methods. I presented these as 5 sequential hurdles for voting method design. That is, since they are in what I view as dec... |
7c22a69f-fd82-4406-bc11-969fb57ed535 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #102]: Meta learning by GPT-3, and a list of full proposals for AI alignment
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look throug... |
001bc982-1445-4bcf-90b6-771480bb8a3d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Nick Bostrom's book Superintelligence
Nick Bostrom's "[Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies](amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0198739834)" is the original only book-form introduction to the basics of [AI alignment theory](https://arbital.com/p/2v). |
4960e3c1-98e4-4e60-b674-9ecaa0ccb6c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Archiving link posts?
Link rot is a huge problem. At the same time, many posts on Less Wrong—including some of the most important posts, which talk about important concepts or otherwise advance our collective knowledge and understanding—are link posts, which means that a non-trivial chunk of our content is hosted else... |
eca73a58-89f2-4dc3-902e-fa9940ba08ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Active AGI and/or FAI researchers
I am curious in general about who here, if anyone, is actively researching the AGI and/or FAI problems directly in a full-time capacity (or soon will be). So if that's you, please say hello! Or if you know another website/mailing-list/etc this question would be more appropriate to ask... |
a591e7a8-b47d-4a62-9f61-9cc5e7a08572 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where do you get your capabilities from?
In both alignment and capabilities research, people end up discussing the effects and feasibility of different AI architectures, and when this happens, I tend to focus on the question: Where do you get your capabilities from?
Capabilities are possible because the world has str... |
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