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77dec275-9a75-4c45-b30f-0234a6c6f12f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The germ of an idea
Apologies for posting another unformed idea, but I think it's important to get it out there.
The problem with dangerous AI is that it's intelligent, and thus adapts to our countermeasures. If we did something like plant a tree and order the AI not to eat the apple on it, as a test of its obedience... |
4631ab4f-2120-4e3a-967a-bde8a8dabc41 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Result Of The Bounty/Contest To Explain Infra-Bayes In The Language Of Game Theory
A month and a half ago I [announced](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ig62gqK2xRPv79Wsr/usd500-bounty-contest-explain-infra-bayes-in-the-language-of) a $500 bounty/prize to explain infrabayes work in the language of game theory. Others ... |
2e3cb1ae-0977-4e0f-b594-fe99cf403c15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI and Mainstream Culture
Hi all,
So, as you may know, the first episode of Doctor Who, "Smile", was about a misaligned AI trying to maximize smiles (ish). And the latest, "Extremis", was about an alien race who instantiated conscious simulations to test battle strategies for invading the Earth, of which the Doctor ... |
144f5039-fa01-45e1-8c4c-e83b40b1e04a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Richard Dawkins: Should employers be blind to private beliefs? [link]
http://www.boingboing.net/2011/01/24/should-employers-be.html |
16d05662-cc5d-4653-b64d-51b2b184cfc7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nootropics-Based Movie Coming Out
Limitless is a movie coming (in the US) this Friday that people around here might be interested in, at least in how it portrays nootropics, or in how it prompts media discussion about them.
In a nutshell, it seems to be about a guy who uses nootropics to rapidly become more intellige... |
c937712f-e127-46f3-9f73-58f9ce18f4ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "AI Alignment" is a Dangerously Overloaded Term
Alignment as Aimability or as Goalcraft?
The Less Wrong and AI risk communities have obviously had a huge role in mainstreaming the concept of risks from artificial intelligence, but we have a serious terminology problem.
The term "AI Alignment" has become popular, but ... |
61237e01-48e5-47b4-a997-ebfa2aa69d98 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are there any (semi-)detailed future scenarios where we win?
I think there's tremendous value in imagining what the future could look like, in as much detail as possible. Some recent examples: AI-2027, A History of the Future, How AI Takeover Might Happen in 2 Years.
Do you know any optimistic stories along these lin... |
54af9a9f-ad49-41a4-a475-a656771e8dc8 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Sometimes I tell the kids "sorry, I can't do that with you right now,
I'm writing a blog post". A few months ago Lily (then 5y) came up to
me and asked if I would help her write a post. We sat down on the
couch, she dictated, I typed, and out came a post about bridges. Since
then she's asked me to record about a dozen... |
66b4582f-46ea-4f9e-bc9f-2c18008c83da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Barack Obama's opinions on near-future AI [Fixed]
|
cca6cd7e-53e7-4ef9-9ad1-82845ba0cf28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Meetup [Reading Group, HAEFB-06]
Discussion article for the meetup : Meetup [Reading Group, HAEFB-06]
WHEN: 17 March 2013 11:00:00AM (+0000)
WHERE: Trinity JCR, Cambridge, UK
This week, we'll finish off the Causality/Physics section of Highly Advanced Epistemology 101 For Beginners, with Causal Universes. ... |
40c93690-03b5-433a-90c6-4b020b68f6e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Refine Blogpost Day #3: The shortforms I did write
Today was Refine's third blogpost day. I find it hard to write blogposts. The voice of the inner critic is too loud. The voice of Adam Shimi too is powerful. I'm caught between a rock and a hard place.
so I wrote some shortforms:
Dutch Book Fundamentalism I: the bet... |
62b0eaf4-0929-467f-b425-ee0375607521 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | I designed an AI safety course (for a philosophy department)
**Background**
--------------
In the fall of 2023, I'm teaching a course called "*Philosophy and The Challenge of the Future*"[[1]](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gY9TjxNgSkgsMRDnL/i-designed-an-ai-safety-course-for-a-philosophy-department#fn9xo1... |
46ebaf8e-d0d0-4cc0-8f31-38f2d725fc25 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA orgs' legal structure inhibits risk taking and information sharing on the margin
What is fiscal sponsorship?
It’s fairly common for EA orgs to provide fiscal sponsorship to other EA orgs. Wait, no, that sentence is not quite right. The more accurate sentence is that there are very few EA organizations, in the lega... |
aea1f797-3f3c-4d9e-8bbe-79772e7e6661 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Resolve
This post examines resolve and decisiveness (and things in that bailiwick like determination, commitment, dedication, steadfastness, and firmness), as part of a sequence of posts about virtues. I mostly explore what other people have learned about these virtues, rather than sharing my own research or ... |
65cc2e9b-02e2-4960-b188-6ec92b5b891a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Small Berkeley meetup: Nisan's house
Discussion article for the meetup : Small Berkeley meetup: Nisan's house
WHEN: 06 June 2012 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: Berkeley, CA
This Wednesday's meetup will be at my house. See the for the address.
Feel free to arrive between 7pm and 7:30pm. At 7:30pm we'll do/play ... |
7762d5f1-8c9d-4c22-81d0-af8b3701958e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Contra StatNews: How Long to Herd Immunity?
Cross post from applieddivinitystudies.com/stat-immunity Warning: Speculative armchair epidemiology. All emphasis mine. See also Youyang Gu's projection.
Summary: In an article for Stat, Dr. Zach Nayer misrepresents research, makes indefensibly flawed assumptions, and fumbl... |
64645747-2eec-41fd-83c6-12a38db58e2c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should rationalists be spiritual / Spirituality as overcoming delusion
Kaj_Sotala
I just started thinking about what I would write to someone who disagreed with me on the claim "Rationalists would be better off if they were more spiritual/religious", and for this I'd need to define what I mean by "spiritual".
Here a... |
8e153573-621e-4f54-a47f-52f1307cfd90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My take on higher-order game theory
This is how I currently think about higher-order game theory, the study of agents thinking about agents thinking about agents....
This post doesn't add any new big ideas beyond what was already in the post by Diffractor linked above. I just have a slightly different perspective tha... |
5a673c12-124c-41ca-9f8e-e0dd201d61c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Apply to >30 AI safety funders in one application with the Nonlinear Network
Nonlinear spoke to dozens of earn-to-givers and a common sentiment was, "I want to fund good AI safety-related projects, but I don't know where to find them." At the same time, applicants don’t know how to find them either. And would-be appl... |
c70cca6f-cc04-48e7-a1d2-806eb74138cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Win First" vs "Chill First"
Around a month ago, I found an incredibly insightful quote deep in the Reddit comments about a particular basketball player who had recently changed teams.
> People who try hard to win first and foremost make it uncomfortable when people are trying to just have a good time and do well. An... |
492e197c-d59e-44a2-833d-66fb8b849c7c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What could EA's new name be?
[Disclaimer: this was not an April fools joke, people are actually working on this right now and this is the only critical window to contribute]
Recent comments by Holden Karnofsky, the leader of Open Philanthropy (and influential enough to initiate a name-change for EA):
> * Having see... |
c9b293d2-1b16-47bd-8825-396a60410aa3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weak AGIs Kill Us First
Weak AGIs Kill Us First aka. Deadly pre-Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies
Epistemic status: This has not been edited or commented on by anyone other than chatGPT as of publishing, I hope the arguments stand on their own.
When people talk about the dangers of AGI, they often refer ... |
e71968bb-6bba-4d39-a5c1-94c7cdbd985d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | anthropic mindfulness
anthropic mindfulness
---------------------
in the past few months, especially since reading a lot about [anthropics](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RnrpkgSY8zW5ArqPf/sia-greater-than-ssa-part-1-learning-from-the-fact-that-you) and experiencing some psychedelics, i have experienced moments tha... |
c0171a78-5a97-4951-bd85-fc1be2a69cd1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What to suggest companies & entrepreneurs do to use AI safely?
Let's say you get the chance to talk to someone in one of the following situations:
* An entrepreneur attempting to apply existing AI tech (e.g. ChatGPT) to a new niche or application (e.g. helping companies improve their sales messaging)
* The CEO of a l... |
daebcfe6-708c-40dc-a0ef-b4c6c26d491b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Deconfusing Logical Counterfactuals
This post aims to provide a strong philosophical foundation for [logical counterfactuals](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6t5vRHrwPDi5C9hYr/motivating-a-semantics-of-logical-counterfactuals#comments), while sketching out an informal scheme that will hopefully be formalised further i... |
7c372a41-4170-48b0-8ae1-02ae79a9223e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Agents vs. Predictors: Concrete differentiating factors
Thanks to Paul Christiano and Kate Woolverton for useful conversations and feedback.
In "Conditioning Predictive Models," we devote a lot of effort into trying to understand how likely predictive models are compared to other alternatives in realistic training re... |
2deac9e6-fb20-4009-87bf-0541189a8b16 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Examples of self-governance to reduce technology risk?
Cross-posted from the EA Forum
I'm searching for examples of self-governance efforts to reduce technology risk. Do people have cases to suggest?
The more similar to AI development the better. That is, efforts by companies or academic communities to address risks... |
13512148-f255-455c-94f3-c13de05f936b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Exploring Democratic Dialogue between Rationality, Silicon Valley, and the Wider World
I was asked to review a draft that critiques the broader rationality movement for a tendency to engineer elegant solutions to fix the world in ways that bypass 'inefficient' democratic dialogue.
However, the authors worried that t... |
1efa9bed-ee26-4c68-af0b-05c28b0cee3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Theory of an Immoral Sentiment
I.
Hey, did you hear the news about the descolada virus outbreak in Tajikistan?
“No,” you say, “is it bad?”
I confirm that it is bad indeed. 15,000 people have succumbed to the illness, many more cases unconfirmed, doctors are scrambling for a cure. Fortunately, the disease is localiz... |
5e64734d-cb75-4136-aa09-70503c13e2a7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Gradient surfing: the hidden role of regularization
> *Produced as part of the* [*SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program*](https://serimats.org/) *- Winter 2022 Cohort*
>
>
[In a previous post, I demonstrated that Brownian motion near singularities defies our expectations from "regular" physics.](https://www.... |
cecfd08f-8b0f-49f1-b891-dc5e96f5d8e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Abadarian Trades
Spoilers for planecrash (Book 2).
> I propose an equal split of the gains from this trade, and will reject lesser splits with a probability corresponding to how disproportionately they reserve the gains for you, such that you can't actually do better by pretending to underrate me, but we'll still wor... |
fcd397b7-2bf2-45c2-8b9f-223f05af54ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paper+Summary: OMNIGROK: GROKKING BEYOND ALGORITHMIC DATA
There is a new paper by Liu et al. that claims to have understood the key mechanism underlying grokking (potentially even generalization more broadly).
They argue:
1. Grokking can be explained via the norm of the weights. They claim that there is a constant... |
37420d2b-c687-4c4a-aed3-439fd2783f6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Irrationality Quotes August 2016
Rationality quotes are self-explanatory. Irrationality quotes often need some context and explication, so they would break the flow in Rationality Quotes. |
765b338e-edaf-4484-8cf2-5db9c4a2f6ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's the CFAR position on how the workbook can be used?
The CFAR handbook is a great resource for applied rationality. I talked with another rationlist in Berlin about creating a reading group around it. Did CFAR articulate a position around how the handbook can be used and whether such a group would be okay? If so,... |
4d17b404-040c-4d4f-9dec-db3d035e068f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If you are assuming Software works well you are dead
Suno Version
I say this because I can hardly use a computer without constantly getting distracted. Even when I actively try to ignore how bad software is, the suggestions keep coming.
Seriously Obsidian? You could not come up with a system where links to headings ... |
c47f51c9-f8b1-4fef-89bc-44886edbcc9d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Magic Shoes
While taking their daily stroll around the lake, Alice and Bob encounter a mysterious box. There is a note written on it:
> ~MAGIC SHOES INSIDE~
>
> These shoes will allow you to walk on water if you follow these 3 simple steps:
>
> 1. Believe that you can do it.
> 2. Say 'Aqua Esto Terra!' 3 times to... |
182cc9f1-653a-4a91-aeb7-4e87a1514c77 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Learning-Theoretic Agenda: Status 2023
**TLDR:** I give an overview of (i) the key problems that the learning-theoretic AI alignment research agenda is trying to solve, (ii) the insights we have so far about these problems and (iii) the research directions I know for attacking these problems. I also describe "Phys... |
cb9975b9-6d3a-466e-9e18-b5d18145f864 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The space of systems and the space of maps
When we're trying to do AI alignment, we're often studying systems which don't yet exist. This is a pretty weird epistemic activity, and seems really hard to get right. This post offers one frame for thinking about what we're actually doing when we're thinking about AI alignm... |
b73077e4-317b-4a37-937b-27d066fdd1a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the group selection debate?
Related to Group selection update, The tragegy of group selectionism
tl;dr: In competitive selection processes, selection is a two-place word: there's something being selected (a cause), and something it's being selected for (an effect). The phrase group-level gene selection helps ... |
df707892-ea29-4615-901b-7c807851c19e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to learn from conversations
(This is a post from a daily blogging experiment I did at neelnanda.io, which I thought might also fit the tastes of LessWrong)
I’m currently in the middle of a virtual conference, so one thing heavily on my mind is how to get the most out of talking to people who know more than me. Ho... |
aa7240dd-3a6f-47c5-b0a4-375cebbd4a32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality as A Value Decider
Rationality As a Value Decider
A Different Concept of Instrumental Rationality
Eliezer Yudkowsky defines instrumental rationality as “systematically achieving your values” and goes on to say: “Instrumental rationality, on the other hand, is about steering reality—sending the future whe... |
87a394b8-17b2-41d8-89ee-355512637c5c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A general framework for evaluating aging research. Part 1: reasoning with Longevity Escape Velocity
,
Summary
To this day there is a lack of systematic research to evaluate a cause area with immense potential: aging research. This is the first of a series of posts in which I'll try to begin research to address this ... |
1db8d692-8e76-44a7-8049-781f92f2bca0 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post1985
(Last revised: July 2024. See changelog at the bottom.) (If you’re already an AGI safety expert, you can probably skip this short post—I don’t think anything here is new, or too specific to brain-like AGIs.) 11.1 Post summary / Table of contents Part of the “Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series . I... |
09e9aa2d-403c-4ffc-82b4-38b249202c36 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | GPT as an “Intelligence Forklift.”
*[See my*[*post with Edelman on AI takeover*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zB3ukZJqt3pQDw9jz/ai-will-change-the-world-but-won-t-take-it-over-by-playing-3) *and*[*Aaronson on AI scenarios*](https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=7266)*. This is rough, with various fine print, caveats, and o... |
c60de00f-0b8a-4cdf-8a85-03f4196008bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mind is uncountable
I'd like to share a simple thought experiment that has some pretty strange implications. It seems to show that the world cannot always be sharply divided into separate experiences.
We can make the analogy, to how the world cannot always be divided into separate organisms. Usually it can, but there... |
ca177ccc-b4d0-443c-9b1d-905e3fcb29ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Link: If you don't already read Bad Science
So there's this blog called Bad Science, consisting mostly of the articles that medical doctor Ben Goldacre writes for the Guardian. It's about pseudoscience, medicine and medical research. And also awesome.
The recent article was a wonderful bit of emotional whiplash, an... |
bf9f02c9-8404-45e1-8d44-47750f22e56e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Superintelligence Reading Group 2: Forecasting AI
*This is part of a weekly reading group on [Nick Bostrom](http://www.nickbostrom.com/)'s book, [Superintelligence](http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111). For more information about the group, and an index of posts so far... |
d2047ae9-8820-4c8c-bc77-1f8bdfd22059 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ideological Bayesians
TLDR: It’s often said that Bayesian updating is unbiased and converges to the truth—and, therefore, that biases must emerge from non-Bayesian sources. That's not quite right. The convergence results require updating on your total evidence—but for agents at all like us, that's impossible—instead, ... |
15aab9fc-93e2-4acb-a94a-eaf709711b17 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI, cure this fake person's fake cancer!
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
An idea for how an we might successfully get useful work out of a powerful AI.
The ultimate box
Assume that we have an extremely detailed model of a sealed room, with a human in it and enough food, drink, air, entertainment,... |
408df698-626e-49b7-9b79-f99a11ea52d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Doomsday Argument Map
The Doomsday argument (DA) is controversial idea that humanity has a higher probability of extinction based purely on probabilistic arguments. The DA is based on the proposition that I will most likely find myself somewhere in the middle of humanity's time in existence (but not in its early time ... |
9c9414d1-d40f-4a6e-88f1-17b6e82050f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | COVID-19 growth rates vs interventions
,
It’s been a couple of weeks since I posted regarding the growth rates of COVID-19 cases in various countries. Now, after these countries have implemented various control measures it is more clear how each measure effects growth rate. This post looks at the 10 countries with the... |
8c33edf0-d55c-456f-9372-199ec4f35b38 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A sufficiently paranoid non-Friendly AGI might self-modify itself to become Friendly
An AGI agent might learn that:
1. The creators are likely to terminate a confined agent who is hostile towards the creators
2. If the creators can prove that the agent is Friendly, the risk of termination is greatly reduced (perhaps... |
37dee561-ec42-4879-aef6-16a51388052d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | If AGI is imminent, why can’t I hail a robotaxi?
My intuition is that driving is a domain narrow enough not to require AGI and, moreover, to require a system of far less sophistication and reasoning capabilities than an AGI. SAE Level 5 autonomy — which requires a vehicle to be able to drive autonomously wherever and ... |
444cd0eb-078b-415e-a20f-1ab48e3750ec | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Attainable Utility Preservation: Concepts
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; fl... |
6e83681a-568e-45ee-9df1-a5dafd140699 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] False Laughter
Today's post, False Laughter was originally published on 22 December 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Finding a blow to the hated enemy to be funny is a dangerous feeling, especially if that is the only reason why the joke is funny. Jokes should be funny on their own merits be... |
de9b8b02-7c89-4b04-b424-9a0848c51345 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Everybody Knows
“Everybody knows that the dice are loaded.
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed.
Everybody knows the war is over.
Everybody knows the good guys lost.”
– Leonard Cohen, Everybody Knows
“It is known.” – Dothraki saying
It is not known. Everybody doesn’t know.
When someone claims that everyon... |
75f81138-bde7-4737-a190-47067943018c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | This Didn't Have To Happen
My girlfriend/SO's grandfather died last night, running on a treadmill when his heart gave out.
He wasn't signed up for cryonics, of course. She tried to convince him, and I tried myself a little the one time I met her grandparents.
"This didn't have to happen. Fucking religion."
That's... |
733c8282-47f3-4943-8fc8-6dbe11059845 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Helsinki Social Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Helsinki Social Meetup
WHEN: 25 July 2013 05:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Vilhonkatu 4, 00100 Helsinki
This will be an informal event to chat about topics of interest. We’ll also have the chance to play light board games. You can find us in Kaisla by loo... |
077b49f2-d0a1-47fb-8fe4-b1cecc236b1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Suddenly Not Being Able to Work
Cross-posted, as always, from Putanumonit.
----------------------------------------
Since I started Putanumonit five years ago I’ve rarely ever gone two weeks without posting anything. I’ve now gone a full month.
It’s not that I have nothing to write about. I have several half-fin... |
24f47501-4367-48f3-aef3-9320b6b8c69f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #52: Oops
We were treated to technical marvels this week.
At Google, they announced Gemini Pro 1.5, with a million token context window within which it has excellent recall, using mixture of experts to get Gemini Advanced level performance (e.g. GPT-4 level) out of Gemini Pro levels of compute. This is a big deal,... |
1e421d40-6053-4649-af18-d08af25d0af8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Positive outcomes under an unaligned AGI takeover
*The following is a hypothetical story about a surprisingly positive outcome to an unaligned AGI takeover. This is not meant to be realistic, but merely semi-plausible, in order to show that the orthogonality thesis does not necessarily lead to defection against humans... |
8935b909-3c07-44fb-95fb-d8c10afcae32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's your best alternate history utopia?
Rules:
* Same level of technology as today
* Basic human psychology is the same
* But you are allowed to change prevalent institutions, cultural assumptions etc.
So e.g. if you think that the modern school system is oppressive and traumatizing, you can describe a world t... |
da7b224a-4c04-4ee4-8fb5-f1f1dfbe2bc4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Further Progress on a Bayesian Version of Logical Uncertainty
I’d like to credit Daniel Demski for helpful discussion.
So, the Eisenstat prior mentioned earlier seemed like a rather fundamental advance on the state of the art in logical uncertainty. Given that it was essentially a modification of the Demski prior, th... |
3680a99b-7db6-43f1-b42f-00fc692bdcb8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Formulas of arithmetic that behave like decision agents
I wrote this post in the course of working through Vladimir Slepnev's [A model of UDT with a halting oracle](/lw/8wc/a_model_of_udt_with_halting_oracles/). This post contains some of the ideas of Slepnev's post, with all the proofs written out. The main formal di... |
e6b03a3a-d5f7-4418-8c1b-a1c0ff4a97ac | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Domitilla del Vecchio on hybrid control for autonomous vehicles
 Domitilla Del Vecchio received the Ph. D. degree in Control and Dynamical Systems from the [California Institute of Technology](http://www.caltech.e... |
1db70859-a28b-4e61-be5a-70c615e84fe6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why hasn't the technology of Knowledge Representation (i.e., semantic networks, concept graphs, ontology engineering) been applied to create tools to help human thinkers?
I've been studying the field of knowledge representation (KR) and everything I've come across is focused on building knowledge systems for machine p... |
a262dc43-24aa-4397-bd04-46f94f6d406a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The feeling of breaking an Overton window
Epistemic status: real but incomplete observations.
In late February of 2020, I went to the grocery store at 2am with my husband (emptiest time), and we bought ~$1k of mostly canned or dry goods. We were the only customers in line. The cashier seemed interested in our purchas... |
92c6b275-f93d-452b-a9d0-c86f08e2dc54 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - July
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - July
WHEN: 05 July 2015 04:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Humanist House, 10 Shepherd St Chippendale
Come join us for July's rationality dojo, the first led by Joseph! After the main event, those who wish to join us can co... |
d3025df0-cdda-4a78-8b86-dd487914055d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing the Forecasting Wiki
We're excited to announce the Forecasting Wiki, the (future) go-to place for all information related to forecasting.
The goal of this wiki is to become a comprehensive repository that collects our shared knowledge on forecasting. We aim at a broad audience, ranging from newcomers who ... |
f0973600-17f3-4c6b-b87f-3a5592b246a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moral Reality Check (a short story)
Janet sat at her corporate ExxenAI computer, viewing some training performance statistics. ExxenAI was a major player in the generative AI space, with multimodal language, image, audio, and video AIs. They had scaled up operations over the past few years, mostly serving B2B, but wit... |
b95a8523-04be-4982-afe4-c82702426bbb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Discovering Latent Knowledge in the Human Brain: Part 1 – Clarifying the concepts of belief and knowledge
Acknowledgements: Many thanks to Milan Cvitkovic and Collin Burns for their help in workshopping this project proposal. Many of the ideas presented here regarding the use of neuroscience and neurotechnology were o... |
77296528-a4eb-4931-8cc1-d0689b1fcecb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kinesthetic motor imagery
Kinesthetic motor imagery (KMI) is a specific kind of imagination. Namely, you imagine how your body would feel when performing some action, without actually performing it. A kind of internal miming.
I formulated this concept to myself a few months ago without knowing the name, and just now ... |
91744861-fcfb-4058-a030-a15bc67fb277 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : First LW Meetup in Warsaw
Discussion article for the meetup : First LW Meetup in Warsaw
WHEN: 30 March 2014 03:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Cafe Kulturalna, Plac Defilad 1, 00-901 Warszawa
As far as I can tell, there never has been a Lesswrong meetup in Warsaw, although Warsaw has almost 2 million inhabitants.
I... |
dbcfe569-8030-4712-ab0d-30bf2131976b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pittsburgh Meetup: Survey of Interest
I plan to host an OBLW meetup in Pittsburgh, PA, in the next couple of weeks, but would like to know the level of interest first. Please comment if you think you'd attend.
(The planned location is a house in Squirrel Hill, about a mile and a half from Carnegie Mellon University; ... |
d3db144f-d058-4a1e-be18-c18e3623bed4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Surprised by Brains
**Followup to**: [Life's Story Continues](/lw/w3/lifes_story_continues/)
Imagine two agents who've *never seen an intelligence* -
including, somehow, themselves - but who've seen the rest of the
universe up until now, arguing about what these newfangled "humans"
with their "language" might be ab... |
6433aeb7-aa3f-4770-a9a4-1094984b2115 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Reflections on "Making the Atomic Bomb"
*[Cross posted on*[*windowsontheory;*](https://windowsontheory.org/?p=8674) *see here for my*[*prior writings*](https://windowsontheory.org/category/philosophizing/) *; update 8/25/23: added a paragraph on secrecy]*
*[it appears almost certain that in the immediate future, it w... |
eb949e76-f484-4b43-bd8e-e79484b42691 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should Effective Altruists be Valuists instead of utilitarians?
By Spencer Greenberg and Amber Dawn Ace
Image created using the A.I. DALL•E 2
This post is designed to stand alone, but it is also the third of five posts in my sequence of essays about my (Spencer's) life philosophy, Valuism. (Here are the first, seco... |
d6c65432-6fcd-430c-94c2-59ad4babdae2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Causal diagrams and software engineering
> Fake explanations don't feel fake. That's what makes them dangerous. -- EY
Let's look at "A Handbook of Software and Systems Engineering", which purports to examine the insights from software engineering that are solidly grounded in empirical evidence. Published by the prest... |
1280bb52-c1b2-4675-b0a3-c97148c8c679 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | DeepMind is hiring for the Scalable Alignment and Alignment Teams
We are hiring for several roles in the Scalable Alignment and Alignment Teams at DeepMind, two of the subteams of DeepMind Technical AGI Safety trying to make artificial general intelligence go well. In brief,
* The **Alignment Team** investigates how... |
e696a012-bc04-4e9d-a1cb-1ac21e2c2f72 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflections on the Metastrategies Workshop
I'm a research lead at Timaeus and attended a workshop that @Raemon ran from Oct 4-6 (it was shortened from 4 days to 2.5 days to fit into a weekend). I had prior interest + experience in deliberate practice and enjoyed lots of Ray's posts about it, so I was curious about the... |
dbf39146-68ea-4a05-91b0-00c68d889402 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Help us name a short primer on AI risk!
MIRI will soon publish a short book by Stuart Armstrong on the topic of AI risk. The book is currently titled “AI-Risk Primer” by default, but we’re looking for something a little more catchy (just as we did for the upcoming Sequences ebook).
The book is meant to be accessible ... |
5218fd6b-b486-4a79-a4ef-f25983413481 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some intuition on why consciousness seems subjective
This is an essay I wrote a few years back that some people have found helpful. The writing needs some polishing but I'm posting as-is. Thanks to Ruairi Donelly for originally encouraging me to write it and now also for encouraging me to post it here. Summary is at t... |
f4dc1859-d293-430c-afc4-52cbb25e65a9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What would a good solution to AI alignment look like?
An actually good solution to AI alignment might look like a superintelligence that understands, agrees with, and deeply believes in human morality.
You wouldn’t have to command a superintelligence like this to cure cancer; it would already want to cure cancer, for... |
9be9634c-e420-4c2c-ac95-2b238fa35a6f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | program searches
program searches
----------------
something i've found useful recently is to notice, and reason about, *program searches*. they are a particular kind of [optimization process](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/znfkdCoHMANwqc2WE/the-ground-of-optimization-1); the thing they are searching for happe... |
e21386de-6be6-489c-9a95-a7166a4d992f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 10. The alignment problem
(Last revised: April 2025. See changelog at the bottom.)
10.1 Post summary / Table of contents
Part of the “Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series.
In this post, I discuss the alignment problem for brain-like AGIs—i.e., the problem of making an AGI tha... |
acd9a099-a428-48af-a211-e6cb7aac0d04 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A quick remark on so-called “hallucinations” in LLMs and humans
Cross-posted from New Savanna.
That LLMs “hallucinate” is well-known, though I prefer the term “confabulate.” They just make stuff up. They don’t do it intentionally, or with intent to deceive. They do it because they have no connection to “ground truth... |
5203feb8-718b-4197-b4da-45e8e72edc7d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Skill Preferences: Learning to Extract and Execute Robotic Skills from Human Feedback.
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep reinforcement learning (RL) is a framework for solving temporally extended tasks that has resulted in a number of breakthroughs in autonomous control including mastery of the game of Go [[1](#b... |
6af4e756-b189-4ae4-acc3-ef372e6dfcaf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 10 great reasons why Lex Fridman should invite Eliezer and Robin to re-do the FOOM debate on his podcast
I'm basically just asking you all to upvote this on Reddit. I think it would be excellent for all the reasons I posted there, and for LessWrong.
Lex does read suggestions like this on his subreddit, and it previou... |
3716cb35-06ba-4eac-b2b8-8b6d7d50fa31 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Evaluating CLIP: Towards Characterization of Broader Capabilities and Downstream Implications
1 Introduction
---------------
Recently, there have been breakthroughs in more generalizable computer vision (“CV”) models with models such as CLIP (“Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training”) [[17](#bib.bib17)] and ALIGN [... |
0e1cd88f-e273-4a8f-95c6-61b13bc10c41 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preference for uncertainty and impact overestimation bias in altruistic systems.
Let's say a system receives reward when it believes that it's doing some good. Kind of like RL with actor-critic.
Estimated Good things -> max
We can do some rewriting. I'll use notation -> inc. that means incentivised to be increased. I... |
2e9a972b-9364-4a7b-be01-b74168852ef2 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Consider the following commonly-made argument: cryonics is unlikely to work. Trained rationalists are signed up for cryonics at rates much greater than the general population. Therefore, rationalists must be pretty gullible people, and their claims to be good at evaluating evidence must be exaggerations at best.This a... |
a43b1e46-aba0-49b8-89e5-8da1ce64e9f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | April 2021 Gwern.net newsletter
None |
3ed7a4df-c4bf-4b22-8d82-c7aed25db9dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Great Mathematicians on the Value of Intuition in Mathematics
There is a widespread misconception among educated laypeople that mathematics is primarily about logic and proof. No serious mathematician would deny that logical rigor has played an essential role in the development of mathematics. But the essential role t... |
5add7c9c-709e-4b7a-8c1f-71dc0263ad24 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Examining Evolution as an Upper Bound for AGI Timelines
Cross-posted from <https://mybrainsthoughts.com/?p=349>
With the massive degree of progress in AI over the last decade or so, it’s natural to wonder about its future - particularly the timeline to achieving human (and superhuman) levels of general intelligence. ... |
47975329-e5cd-43b3-97c5-a8f14d91fa4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to estimate a pre-aligned value for a common discussion ground?
There are actually all sorts of false science in the wild, such as "the earth is flat" and "pandemic is government-driven lies", extending their influence even though the rational community struggled to promote the rational thinking paradigm, which I ... |
83262450-8c28-4243-9a2b-0b41e5967611 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Rational Value of Information Estimation for Measurement Selection
1 Introduction
---------------
Problems of decision-making under uncertainty frequently contain
cases where information can be obtained using some costly actions,
called measurement actions. In order to act rationally in the
decision-theoretic sense... |
69bccd41-952b-47a4-a94b-063540af0e46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : LW Vienna Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : LW Vienna Meetup
WHEN: 17 May 2014 03:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Reichsratsstrasse 17, 1010 Vienna, Austria
Meetup at Cafe Votiv. The progression of the Rationality movement in Vienna, and the GBS. Thinking Fast and Slow Part 2 by Andreas, followed by a disc... |
3e592a06-9073-4208-89e3-412e1b8ae9e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Taxonomy of AI-risk counterarguments
Partly inspired by The Crux List, the following is a non-comprehensive taxonomy of positions which imply that we should not be worried about existential risk from artificial superintelligence.
Each position individually is supposed to be a refutation of AI X-risk concerns as a who... |
642fad6a-b871-45fe-a316-2f675cd2777c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Oracle machines for automated philosophy
This article describes an idea of Paul Christiano's. Paul described it to Benja Fallenstein and Benja described it to me. It's a way to use reflective oracle machines as an aid in answering philosophical questions.
Edit, 7am Pacific Time, 17 February 2015: Made a major correct... |
7d1d74e8-1759-4497-b547-3308dea38a16 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Experienced Professionals Fail to Land High-Impact Roles (FBB #5)
Crossposted on the EA forum and Substack.
Introduction
There are many reasons why people fail to land a high-impact role. They might lack the skills, don’t have a polished CV, don’t articulate their thoughts well in applications[1] or interviews, ... |
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