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cf03285a-55cf-4dd6-91a0-a410d60f6157 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Of Gender and Rationality
Among all self-identified "rationalist" communities that I know of, and Less Wrong in particular, there is an obvious gender imbalance—a male/female ratio tilted strongly toward males.
Yet surely epistemic and instrumental rationality have no gender signature. There is no such thing as masc... |
c64f38fd-a79b-4b16-bb29-c932ddc4e80a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Engaging First Introductions to AI Risk
I'm putting together a list of short and sweet introductions to the dangers of artificial superintelligence.
My target audience is intelligent, broadly philosophical narrative thinkers, who can evaluate arguments well but who don't know a lot of the relevant background or jargo... |
1e012475-d6cd-4a94-9e90-576eb96a8d05 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | I missed the crux of the alignment problem the whole time
*This post has been written for the first*[*Refine*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/5uiQkyKdejX3aEHLM/how-to-diversify-conceptual-alignment-the-model-behind) *blog post day, at the end of the week of readings, discussions, and exercises about epistemology... |
8df30e13-1550-4e14-ade7-b1750f11a6cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Super additivity of consciousness
In “Freedom under naturalistic dualism” I have carefully argued that consciousness is radically noumenal, that is, it is the most real (perhaps the only real) thing in the Universe, but also totally impossible to be observed by others (non-phenomenal). In my view this strongly limits ... |
ba7981e6-0317-49b7-8d82-9b1930ed53c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | User research as a barometer of software design
(Cross-posted on my personal blog.)
In UX design, they do something called user research.
Consider an example. You have two designs: A and B. You think A is better but John thinks B is better. Who's right?
Well, you can debate a bunch of stuff. Design A breaks this gu... |
16db73eb-c02c-4bcb-bd3f-5deeae740509 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Another AI Winter?
Robin Hanson has been
[suggesting](https://aiimpacts.org/conversation-with-robin-hanson/)
recently that we've been experiencing an AI boom that's not too
different from prior booms.
At the recent [Foresight Vision
Weekend](https://foresight.org/vision-weekend-2019/), he predicted [not exactly - se... |
f61da8f8-3635-4016-bbab-915bbe3c7941 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | DeepSpeed: Extreme-scale model training for everyone
In this article
1. [3D parallelism: Scaling to trillion-parameter models](#3d-parallelism-scaling-to-trillion-parameter-models)
2. [ZeRO-Offload: 10x bigger model training using a single GPU](#zero-offload-10x-bigger-model-training-using-a-single-gpu)
3. [DeepSp... |
1876cbd9-1fbc-4759-b434-0d52b885bf18 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC: Museums
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC: Museums
WHEN: 11 May 2014 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC 20001, USA
We'll be meeting to go look at museums. We'll rendezvous in the usual place then head out.
Discussion article for the meetup :... |
f5dc9f0e-1b83-4757-9821-09032bc03836 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Penalizing side effects using stepwise relative reachability
1 Introduction
---------------
An important component of safe behavior for reinforcement learning agents is avoiding unnecessary side effects while performing a task (Amodei et al., [2016](#bib.bib2); Taylor et al., [2016](#bib.bib26)). For example, if a ... |
89418bfb-b8a7-4452-99b2-7e89c6b86c4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Predicting Virus Relative Abundance in Wastewater
At the Nucleic Acid Observatory (NAO) we're evaluating pathogen-agnostic surveillance. A key question is whether metagenomic sequencing of wastewater can be a cost-effective method to detect and mitigate future pandemics. In this report we investigate one piece of this... |
71227fbc-cadf-4c4e-8f3f-cf0c611e8ea7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | From First Principles
Related: Truly a Part of You, What Data Generated That Thought
Some Case Studies
The other day my friend was learning to solder and he asked an experienced hacker for advice. The hacker told him that because heat rises, you should apply the soldering iron underneath the work to maximize heat tr... |
9d9beebb-437b-4ed4-862d-a0e92f9ecd66 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [META] My Negative Results
Yesterday, I made a post asking if anyone else had noticed LW being particularly slow. I offered to collect data on this, and was fairly sure (Probably about 80%) that it would show that LW loaded slower than other webpages. I took the post down after about 20 seconds (sorry if I confused yo... |
c2d0ac0c-d291-43e0-962d-7201d53315da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lotuses and Loot Boxes
There has been some recent discussion about how to conceptualize how we lose sight of goals, and I think there's a critical conceptual tool missing. Simply put, there's a difference between addiction and exploitation. Deciding to try heroin and getting hooked is addiction, but the free sample fr... |
2e30e847-2927-4734-935f-a51d5c1ba7c7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | 4 Key Assumptions in AI Safety
AGI is already a very difficult topic, with a large amount of uncertainty, and not enough research being done for its core problems. However, I think even with this understanding, its vastness in scope of possibilities might still be severely under-realized. I’ve listed four major assump... |
1cbb656f-0ef4-419c-b56a-6df2e725c98c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A new option for building lumenators
For background on lumenators:
* https://meaningness.com/sad-light-led-lux
* https://arbital.com/p/lumenators/
* How to Build a Lumenator
The original attempt at a lumenator is a commercial product called a "therapy lamp", but the ones I'd seen in the past were quite unambitiou... |
8cfcdd16-f687-4726-8ce2-6f51e0fc753f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] FreakoStats and CEV
I would like to point you guys to the blog FreakoStats, by Garth Zietsman, who according to his profile, "Scored an IQ of 185 on the Mega27 and has a degree in psychology and statistics and 25 years experience in psychometrics and statistics." The main concept discussed there is "The Smart ... |
da6d9294-16d4-4c11-adec-b73f84bc9229 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why not electric trains and excavators?
Many countries are supporting electric cars for environmental and independence reasons. But perhaps there are some targets for electrification with better economics than those, cost-effective without any government incentives. For example, trains and hydraulic excavators.
-----... |
77017247-4c29-4737-8a72-3be15a1c4228 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learn Power Searching with Google
> Google Search makes it amazingly easy to find information. Come learn about the powerful advanced tools we provide to help you find just the right information when the stakes are high.
Daniel Russell is doing a free Google class on how to search the web. Besides six 50-minute clas... |
62374556-9ed5-4617-aeb7-e0545b5813ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Opt-In Revolution — My vision of a positive future with ASI (An experiment with LLM storytelling)
I writing and publishing a story to better clarify my vision for a positive future with transformative AI (or AGI/ASI). The story is written in chapters, and is still being put together piece by piece. Each chapter is... |
13a874fd-4337-4ec1-adbe-3b574910f248 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Investment is a useful societal mechanism for getting new things made. Stock trading shares some functionality with investment, but seems very very inefficient, at that?
Jack Bogle, the creator of the first index fund, says
> The stock market has nothing—n-o-t-h-i-n-g—to do with the allocation of capital. All it mean... |
32005c51-f712-4048-bf4d-dea66dd05731 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Erratum for "From AI to Zombies"
Is there any erratum for the "From AI to Zombies" book? There are so many essays, and many of them are written more than 10 years ago. It seems very likely that since then the errors or imprecisions were discovered.
To be specific, I have a very low belief in the chapter on quantum me... |
ece0de46-1b88-4f3a-b813-1294302669d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Values Darwinism
TL;DR / summary:
Can we objectively define "progress"? A Darwinian definition seems plausible. But when referring to cultures, world-views or theories, it seems that physical survival of the fittest must be complemented by memetic survival. The interaction of these two will generally be complex, and ... |
ba121d83-c109-4202-9aed-17e311ac2b2b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | RA Bounty: Looking for feedback on screenplay about AI Risk
[Jamie Wahls](http://jamiewahls.com/) and Arthur Frost are writing a screenplay for Rational Animations. It's a sci-fi episodic comedy illustrating various ways in which AI goes off the rails in more or less catastrophic ways.
We're looking for feedback and... |
dcd8895e-7b88-4e3c-903e-d79acebaefc2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A tale from Communist China
Judging from the upvotes, it seems like people are quite interested in my grandparents' failure to emigrate from Communist China before it was too late, so I thought I'd elaborate here with more details and for greater visibility. They were all actually supporters of the Communist Party at ... |
efce598b-babf-4493-a319-8c1d82cd8406 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Data Augmentation Can Improve Robustness
1 Introduction
---------------
Despite their success, neural networks are not intrinsically robust.
In particular, it has been shown that the addition of imperceptible deviations to the input, called adversarial perturbations, can cause neural networks to make incorrect pred... |
2f91289b-9c04-411d-b732-38b7b7991c38 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How easy is it to supervise processes vs outcomes?
A lot of AI risk models rely on the fact that we supervise outcomes like consequentialists rather than processes like CAIS.
But, how easy is it to supervise processes for AI, compared to outcomes both in:
Near term: 10 years.
Long-term: 50 years.
Crucially, is it ... |
5c4b2c88-fcb7-4572-ae25-106d991119c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A primer on why computational predictive toxicology is hard
Introduction
There are now (claimed) foundation models for protein sequences, DNA sequences, RNA sequences, molecules, scRNA-seq, chromatin accessibility, pathology slides, medical images, electronic health records, and clinical free-text. It’s a dizzying rat... |
515ec586-0c68-42e3-ba72-7d273ab2ec1e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing the Alignment Research Center
(Cross-post from ai-alignment.com)
I’m now working full-time on the Alignment Research Center (ARC), a new non-profit focused on intent alignment research.
I left OpenAI at the end of January and I’ve spent the last few months planning, doing some theoretical research, doing ... |
25a1e42f-91a1-4e4f-bb77-15fe2f02c485 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decision Theory FAQ
Co-authored with crazy88. Please let us know when you find mistakes, and we'll fix them. Last updated 03-27-2013.
Contents:
* 1. What is decision theory?
* 2. Is the rational decision always the right decision?
* 3. How can I better understand a decision problem?
* 4. How can I measure an age... |
9b066b16-1510-4404-a623-e90784cf8a2d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You only live once: a reframing of working towards posthumanity
Let's say you recently purchased a new computer game. Reviewers like the game, but they say that the game itself pales in comparison to a massive, difficult-to-access secret area near the end. Bizarrely, this secret area contains over 90% of the content i... |
d80cf380-92f5-498d-b2fc-08da12117df4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Towards an empirical investigation of inner alignment
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space... |
edcdcf61-54e2-4cef-b550-5a033edc26bc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Adversarial Attacks Against Medical Deep Learning Systems
1 Introduction
---------------
Over the past six years, deep learning has transformed computer vision and has been implemented in scores of consumer-facing products. Many are excited that these approaches will continue to expand in scope and that new tools a... |
bcb77121-08db-40a2-9cc6-0a6b353c478c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Rediscovery of Interiority in Machine Learning
None |
a9626bbb-347b-404d-8331-6b33ad2cfa65 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sunday November 15th, 12:00PM (PT) — talks by Abram Demski, Daniel Kokotajlo and (maybe) more!
This Sunday at 12pm (PT), we're running another session of "lightning talks" by curated LessWrong authors (see here for previous weeks' transcripts). Again fully in Gather Town.
* For the first hour, we will have a series ... |
3b32af82-d236-4005-8259-15f08b31eea3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knowledge Localization: Tentatively Positive Results on OCR
Epistemic Status: Original research, see previous post for more information
The Plan
1. Hard-code a simple ML system in Python (yikes!) so I can see all of the moving parts and understand it better.
2. Give the ML system something to learn (in this case O... |
fe87d507-ca8f-4b09-9a5e-2a4f72187f52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introduction to Cartesian Frames
This is the first post in a sequence on Cartesian frames, a new way of modeling agency that has recently shaped my thinking a lot.
Traditional models of agency have some problems, like:
* They treat the "agent" and "environment" as primitives with a simple, stable input-output relat... |
bb9a1e56-5e72-4de3-b788-5fef0971e92f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] “Proxy measures, sunk costs, and Chesterton's fence”, or: the sunk cost heuristic
Thought this post might be of interest to LW: Proxy measures, sunk costs, and Chesterton's fence. To summarize: Previous costs are a proxy measure for previous estimates of value, which may have information current estimates of va... |
bec90e78-5c9f-4290-aa5b-4221ac4d4d5f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knightian Uncertainty and Ambiguity Aversion: Motivation
Recently, I found myself in a conversation with someone advocating the use of Knightian uncertainty. I admitted that I've never found the concept compelling. We went back and forth for a little while. His points were crisp and well-supported, my objections were ... |
297e7dd5-4db5-47ec-be5b-46858791a30a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Accord
In the middle of last year, I wrote a transhumanist sci fi novella inspired by (among other things) SSC's post about the Archipelago. It was quite intentionally written as a sci fi story drawing on Less Wrong discussions of AI, and it uses an idea I got from something EY wrote about AI merging their value f... |
bedef9d8-fa8d-4110-9f53-e767d2ff2647 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | GovAI Annual Report 2021
A Note from Ben Garfinkel, Acting Director
------------------------------------------
2021 was a year of big changes for GovAI.
Most significantly, we spun out from the University of Oxford and adopted a [new non-profit structure](https://www.governance.ai/post/the-centre-for-the-governance... |
69028af8-4920-4957-93d4-11a361592e56 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A simple way of exploiting AI's coming economic impact may be highly-impactful
Scott Alexander ended A Lesswrong Crypto Autopsy with these words
> And for those of us who failed - well, the world is getting way too weird to expect there won't be similarly interesting challenges ahead in the future.
This line led me ... |
87f173d3-da7d-4dce-a7cc-383ce1511cbf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "What Is Wrong With Our Thoughts"
> "But let us never forget, either, as all conventional history of philosophy conspires to make us forget, what the 'great thinkers' really are: proper objects, indeed, of pity, but even more, of horror."
David Stove's "What Is Wrong With Our Thoughts" is a critique of philosophy tha... |
9dcaac32-fa2e-4071-854f-8c76a67875f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Comment on Coherence arguments do not imply goal directed behavior
In coherence arguments do not imply goal directed behavior Rohin Shah argues that a system's merely being at all model-able as an EU maximizer does not imply that it has "goal directed behavior". The argument as I understand it runs something like this... |
24a58866-aa7a-435c-a92c-a23ac7f544d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Adam Smith Meets AI Doomers
I loved markets. I got a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago, wrote a free market microeconomics textbook, and recognized that markets have made most people in the developed world richer than medieval kings. Yet, I'm increasingly convinced that these very markets are likely st... |
b2901eb6-2ede-48bf-9b3d-22e6ec95cd58 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seasonal Patterns in BIDA's Attendance
We've been keeping attendance statistics for BIDA since 2011, and looking at the online chart I noticed some patterns in the moving average that looked seasonal:
How seasonal is it?
First, here are the raw attendance values:
This excludes special events (family dance... |
4031acce-9546-4329-90f3-d7f3b253ca9c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety is Dropping the Ball on Clown Attacks
Epistemic status: High confidence (~>70%) that clown attacks are prevalent, and deliberately weaponized by governments and/or intelligence agencies in particular. Very high confidence (~>90%) that the human brain is highly vulnerable to clown attacks, and that a lack of ... |
517798cd-7eae-42ef-83e2-4045f197766f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Agreement on anthropics
Aumann’s agreement theorem says that Bayesians with common priors who know one another’s posteriors must agree. There’s no apparent reason this shouldn’t apply to posteriors arrived at using indexical information. This does not mean that you and I should both believe we are as likely to be the ... |
7165ed29-aa35-42c3-850c-f569ec0066f3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | If you wish to make an apple pie, you must first become dictator of the universe
*[Cross-posted from The Roots of Progress. Written for a general audience. LW readers may find the first couple of sections to be familiar intro material.]*
The word “robot” is derived from the Czech [*robota*](https://en.wiktionary.org/... |
ce1575a7-2f2a-4ffb-a20b-0b103c334c28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should I be afraid of GMOs?
I was raised to believe that genetically-modified foods are unhealthy to eat and bad for the environment, and given a variety of reasons for this, some of which I now recognize as blatantly false (e.g., human genetic code is isomorphic to fundamental physical law), and a few of which still ... |
c112866e-14a0-4eaa-8ce0-f830df615a04 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Rationality Dojo & Picnic in the park
Discussion article for the meetup : Rationality Dojo & Picnic in the park
WHEN: 10 January 2016 03:30:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: Flagstaff Gardens, Melbourne, VIC Australia
NOTE THE NON-STANDARD VENUE (Flagstaff Gardens instead of our usual location.)
3:30pm arrival, 4:00pm ... |
430c1e91-aeee-4356-a3ff-be9ea7ea90f6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | My Assessment of the Chinese AI Safety Community
I've heard people be somewhat optimistic about [this](https://twitter.com/mmitchell_ai/status/1647697067006111745) AI guideline from China. They think that this means Beijing is willing to participate in an AI disarmament treaty due to concerns over AI risk. Eliezer not... |
bc680a08-e03c-4e3b-861f-4956bbff1847 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What The Foucault
Epistemic status: exploratory
Student: Rah, it’s so frustrating!
Master: What is?
Student: I keep stumbling back into Foucault, and I’m never able to decide if I should discard him or if there’s something in there.
Master: I see. Why do you think that he might be irrelevant?
Student: A bunch of ... |
35046145-48fa-49ac-b699-40b2032da4a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Brief Introduction to Container Logistics
Container logistics is an interesting but complicated topic, with a lot of implicit knowledge kept by industry insiders. In this post, I'll give a brief overview, based on my experiences having worked in the industry for three different shipping companies (all located in Chi... |
2cb5bdf1-8681-4933-8aca-5d29dbce9727 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | RecurrentGPT: a loom-type tool with a twist
This is a link post for RecurrentGPT: Interactive Generation of (Arbitrarily) Long Text paper by a team from ETH Zürich ("Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich").
The Compleat Cybornaut recent post discusses looming and the evolving field of loom-type tools. We ar... |
0ffa82b6-6efa-4944-aae5-f41abd7a6e5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Doomsday Argument with Strong Self-Sampling Assumption
Hello everyone; I'm new to the forum, and have been advised to post this in the "discussion" section. Hope this is OK.
I've found some references to discussions here on Brandon Carter / John Leslie's "Doomsday Argument" and they seemed well-informed. One thing I'... |
9facb20e-bbe7-4188-b719-a54524083816 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How has internalising a post-AGI world affected your current choices?
You're probably in one of the three groups below.
Group 1: You don't think AGI is coming anytime soon, so it is business as usual for you.
Group 2: You do think it is coming soon, but you haven't made any life changes beyond career choice and dona... |
8a5f3622-4b15-4111-b41b-716d32c86396 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Rationalist Taboo
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Rationalist Taboo
WHEN: 22 March 2015 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: The Reynolds Center
We will be meeting in the Kogod Courtyard of the Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture (8th and F Sts or 8th and... |
f2867d69-c950-4fc7-800e-6dc195af0548 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Continually-adjusted discounted preferences
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
This is one of the more minor suggestions, just a small tweak to help solve a specific issue.
Discounting time
The issue is the strange behaviour that agents with discount rates have in respect to time.
Quickly, what pro... |
a9a22f5d-cb5b-4ef0-82e9-a1160d302680 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Malicious link!
Not sure how to report this, so posting as a question. On the page titled "All Debates Are Bravery Debates" there is a link to http-colon-slash-slash-raikoth.net/libertarian.html. The link text is "an essay arguing against libertarianism." On Windows, that link goes to a page that asks me to download s... |
2ea23184-e34b-4d71-98e7-842e4d51e7d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Naturalized induction – a challenge for evidential and causal decision theory
As some of you may know, I disagree with many of the criticisms leveled against evidential decision theory (EDT). Most notably, I believe that Smoking lesion-type problems don't refute EDT. I also don't think that EDT's non-updatelessness le... |
32d7f014-c719-492a-b7d1-65584ca86d13 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Information empathy
Epistemic status: Giving a name to a basic skill that some people exhibit and others don't, because I think that it's useful to keep track of who exhibits it and that giving it a name will help with this. See also: Historian's Fallacy, Theory of Mind (both Wikipedia links).
Edit: Down below, I was... |
18c98851-0b2e-4017-9864-9ff91a676be5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Gods of Straight Lines
> “He intends only his own gain, and he is in this, as in many other cases, led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention.” - Adam Smith
Cassandra was a priestess who was granted the gift of prophecy by Apollo. But after she rejected his advances, he changed ... |
5c4f0a28-f481-4f8a-b4a4-c2a1026022f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Increase the tax value of donations with high-variance investments?
The United States has a strange (legal) tax loophole where you can double-count capital gains when donating securies (with some restrictions): If you buy a stock, the values goes up, and you've held it for at least a year, you can donate it and claim ... |
7e18afca-3970-456f-8afc-8f75d015ca62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Predation as Payment for Criticism
A predator's success depends on exploiting specific flaws in prey – poor awareness, slow reactions, weak social coordination. Unlike resource competition or disease, which select based on physiological robustness, predation creates focused pressure on intelligence, pressure which fav... |
71b5e8fe-d2fb-4b45-992a-26973fce34d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Fall of Rome, II: Energy Problems?
What is the core reason for our current dramatic increase in prosperity (seen as the Industrial Revolution, since 1750/1800)? The usage of new energy sources like coal and oil, to replace the physical labor of humans and animals with machines that dramatically boost our productiv... |
8342f785-1aa9-4811-b8d2-6b1937d0a06c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Donate Now vs Donate Later - Relative Value of Donations to AI Alignment
General Case
Let's say I currently have 1M USD, and I can either:
1. Donate it to orgs working on AI alignment.
2. Invest the money and get returns >> than the stock market.
How big must the expected return of my investment be in what time fra... |
c385e90a-f20d-462d-ab5e-6a0a72811360 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Berlin social meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Berlin social meetup
WHEN: 26 January 2013 05:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: S Wuhletal, Berlin, Germany
We're meeting at my house for a social meetup on Jan 26th. Everyone is welcome. Please check the thread on our mailing list for details and the precise l... |
bdcb9d04-ebe3-4c2f-93bf-bc0a5d463fd5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Catastrophic Risks from AI #1: Introduction
This is the first post in a sequence of posts giving an overview of catastrophic AI risks.
Abstract
Rapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have sparked growing concerns among experts, policymakers, and world leaders regarding the potential for increasingly adva... |
b320ebc8-6d5d-4493-a055-138096e9e244 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | The rationals form a field
The set $\mathbb{Q}$ of [rational numbers](https://arbital.com/p/4zq) is a [field](https://arbital.com/p/481).
# Proof
$\mathbb{Q}$ is a ([commutative](https://arbital.com/p/3jb)) [ring](https://arbital.com/p/3gq) with additive identity $\frac{0}{1}$ (which we will write as $0$ for short) ... |
7ea6cf77-190f-441e-80b4-5860f6688e87 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Money Stuff
Cross-posted from Putanumonit.
----------------------------------------
Vodka and War
When I was 16 I made the dumbest financial investment of my life. Our family came to live in the US for a few months, and I made $500 giving tennis lessons to the local kids. My individually directed consumption at the... |
f56f55c9-2a7c-4787-8a61-99c69176a32b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Am I ethically obligated to extend the life of my dog with life-extension treatments about to hit the market?
Recently, a company called "Loyal" received pre-approval status from the FDA regarding their life extension hormone treatment that has show early promise in extending the lifespan of dogs that weigh > 40lbs. ... |
8da6896d-c42d-4629-b4e4-de9d4dc2c403 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Legibility Makes Logical Line-Of-Sight Transitive
In the last post, we talked about how logical line-of-sight makes games sequential or loopy, in a way that causal information flow alone doesn't capture. In this post, I want to describe the conditions necessary for logical line-of-sight to be transitive. This will mak... |
107654c1-1da6-4ee7-a475-cf3aad23fe40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Personal experimentation: I’m wrong?
Cross posted from Overcoming Bias. Comments there.
***
I’ve been wondering why experimentation seems worthwhile. I’ve given some explanations in my last few posts. The last category of explanations to consider are the ones in which my judgement is wrong. Where experimentation see... |
dc4ce0f7-f9c7-428c-bbd7-cbc6a3d89e5d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Stochastic Parrot Hypothesis is debatable for the last generation of LLMs
*This post is part of a sequence on LLM Psychology.*
[*@Pierre Peigné*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/pierre-peigne?mention=user) *wrote the details section in argument 3 and the other weird phenomenon. The rest is written in the voice of... |
43f0df3e-7e45-41de-9ab0-e2b3894dd365 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Human augmented with CBT algorithms games Jeopardy [link]
http://thenextweb.com/shareables/2011/11/16/mind-blown-this-guy-broke-jeopardys-all-time-record-with-an-app/ |
dcbf2f90-62b2-4bd8-8702-06f432401e03 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Chords Do You Need?
You famously only need four chords to play everything, or maybe it's only three. But how true is this really?
I decided to go look and see what was common. I looked at a large number of transcribed songs, writing down which chords were used. This isn't perfect: some chords are more optional t... |
356f7924-cf5d-4786-8434-d3bc65816bb2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decision-Making and Accountability
Photo by dylan nolte on Unsplash
Quick: what’s the best decision you’ve ever made?
(I’m serious! Take a second to think about it.)
.
.
.
Now that you have an answer, think about what it was about that decision that made it a good one. Was it the impressive array of interlocking ... |
30c5cf98-c74a-43dc-bd30-35d5317ac41b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup report: Darwin, Some Rationalists and the Joker [link]
This past weekend the Ottawa LessWrong meetup hosted Venkat Rao, who is on a nomadic journey to promote his (good) new book and to find enlightenment through deliberate idleness.
I thought the resulting post might be of some interest.
Here's an excerpt:
... |
971ff27f-4e93-4251-8221-ca209d9feb61 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [Link] OpenAI LP
<https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/>
> We’ll need to invest billions of dollars in upcoming years into large-scale cloud compute, attracting and retaining talented people, and building AI supercomputers.
> We want to increase our ability to raise capital while still serving our mission, and no pre... |
05f49994-6a46-4f8a-8919-5690d31e5482 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knowledge Dump: Pomodoros
After our recent LW Dojo in Berlin we had a conversation on our mailing list about pomodoros.
How do we handle it if the bell rings but we are in flow? Is it good to honor the bell and take a pause or is it more effective to continue working to keep in flow?
The original setting of 25 minut... |
bd68ea7b-7dd8-4638-a49b-830c37d56166 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unlearning via RMU is mostly shallow
This is an informal research note. It is the result of a few-day exploration into RMU through the lens of model internals. Code to reproduce the main result is available here.
This work was produced as part of Ethan Perez's stream in the ML Alignment & Theory Scholars Program - Su... |
b040a7b1-afe5-4bfb-89bd-b3dd9b2e4021 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Second MIRIxLosAngeles Meeting
Discussion article for the meetup : Second MIRIxLosAngeles Meeting
WHEN: 14 June 2014 10:00:00AM (-0700)
WHERE: USC Institute for Creative Technologies 12015 Waterfront Drive Playa Vista, CA 90094-2536.
The second MIRIxLosAngeles meeting will be held on Saturday, June 14, at ... |
82de6ae4-3904-4bd6-95d7-17a8d110d034 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Three Oracle designs
An initial draft looking at three ways of getting information out of Oracles, information that's useful and safe - in theory.
One thing I may need to do, is find slightly better names for them ^_^
Good and safe uses of AI Oracles
Abstract:
----------------------------------------
> An Oracle ... |
bb50d249-72e5-4889-86ca-6127b2ddf7f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A point of clarification on infohazard terminology
TL;DR: “Infohazard” means any kind of information that could be harmful in some fashion. Let’s use “cognitohazard” to describe information that could specifically harm the person who knows it.
Some people in my circle like to talk about the idea of information hazard... |
d8af90b1-ec8f-421f-85f4-5320681b7292 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there any evidence that handwashing does anything to prevent COVID?
I live in Japan now.
Japan has been very successful in dealing with COVID, even if the cases are now on the rise, the number of dead people relative to the size and mean age of the population remains very low compared with other countries.
I gues... |
4cf38e3b-0526-4efa-b656-67eeb6348a95 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Decolonial AI: Decolonial Theory as Sociotechnical Foresight in Artificial Intelligence
1 How Values Shape Scientific Knowledge and Technology
-------------------------------------------------------
The ongoing advances in artificial intelligence (AI), and innovations in technology more generally, encompass ever-la... |
b1f4c182-77f4-41b7-b30e-7b32864570bf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Meta-Weight-Net: Learning an Explicit Mapping For Sample Weighting
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have recently obtained impressive good performance on various applications due to their powerful capacity for modeling complex input patterns. Despite their success, deep networks can easily... |
a9de451b-526b-4e8b-9cc4-fe9595546cae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Clarifying how misalignment can arise from scaling LLMs
I'm trying to understand how the classical case for AI safety (Bostrom/Yudkowsky argument) best works for LLMs.
My impression is that LLMs have passed an important threshold, they have learnt to learn (for instance, GPT 3 understands translation and can learn a ... |
58885e9f-7dd1-48fd-92b8-198dfed35342 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #75]: Solving Atari and Go with learned game models, and thoughts from a MIRI employee
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1P... |
da1fac2f-1349-43b0-b841-b3ffca2da57d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Asch's Conformity Experiment
Today's post, Asch's Conformity Experiment was originally published on 26 December 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> The unanimous agreement of surrounding others can make subjects disbelieve (or at least, fail to report) what's right before their eyes. The additi... |
5c34a27c-af58-45aa-ad1c-227c51277e62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conservation of Expected Evidence
Friedrich Spee von Langenfeld, a priest who heard the confessions of condemned witches, wrote in 1631 the Cautio Criminalis (“prudence in criminal cases”), in which he bitingly described the decision tree for condemning accused witches: If the witch had led an evil and improper life, ... |
9ad03667-f398-40d2-b4a0-616c35262b6b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2. Premise two: Some cases of value change are (il)legitimate
In the prior post, I have defended the claim that genuine value change is possible, and thus, that a realistic account of human values understands them to be malleable. In this section, I will argue for the claim that some cases of value change are legitima... |
a8d734d4-6bb2-4249-8c88-3eddf038a9f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on February 7th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Inaugural Canberra meetup: 12 February 2014 07:30PM
* Meetup: First Meetup in Hamburg, Germany: 07 February 2014 07:00PM
Other ... |
1684190c-9dfd-4d3d-bd76-9a26d86c4863 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Coordination challenges for preventing AI conflict
Coordination challenges for preventing AI conflict
==================================================
8 March 2021
by [Stefan Torges](https://longtermrisk.org/author/stefan-torges/ "Posts by Stefan Torges")
Summary
-------
In this article, I will sketch argument... |
106f5c63-13b3-4dbb-97a2-fddc671b8eed | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Neural Arithmetic Logic Units
1 Introduction
---------------
The ability to represent and manipulate numerical quantities is apparent in the behavior of many species, from insects to mammals to humans, suggesting that basic quantitative reasoning is a general component of intelligence Dehaene ([2011](#bib.bib5)); G... |
ee820270-57f5-484d-b6a0-8c654e9cebab | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Truth and Advantage: Response to a draft of "AI safety seems hard to measure"
*Status: This was a response to a draft of Holden's cold take "*[*AI safety seems hard to measure*](https://www.cold-takes.com/ai-safety-seems-hard-to-measure/)*". It sparked a further discussion, that Holden*[*recently posted a summary of*]... |
2924b5db-4cf4-4361-b46b-fae17f69c964 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Solving Probability and Statistics Problems by Program Synthesis
Solving Probability and Statistics Problems by Program Synthesis
Leonard Tang
Harvard University
MathematicsElizabeth Ke
MIT
MathematicsNikhil Singh
MIT
Media Lab
Nakul Verma
Columbia University
Computer Science DepartmentIddo Drori
MIT
EECS
Abstract
We ... |
9c6759c3-754b-4df4-a549-5dc939ed29c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Devil's Advocate: Adverse Selection Against Conscientiousness
Partially in reply to "Request: stop advancing AI capabilities".
Consider this argument:
> "[X field] is often [dangerous / bad]. If you're [pro-social / thoughtful / conscientious], please avoid [X field]."
Let's grant that these points as true. X fiel... |
c50a0024-3a7b-4b2e-947b-80873d1ada71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Any Salt Lake City residents who might be interested in a meetup?
Discussion article for the meetup : Any Salt Lake City residents who might be interested in a meetup?
WHEN: 29 December 2011 08:37:29PM (-0700)
WHERE: Salt Lake City, Utah
(This post has been edited to reflect the fact that several people ha... |
d12a4655-e039-42a6-94b2-f79c675c792c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Playing the Game of Universal Adversarial Perturbations
1 Introduction
---------------
|
Scale
Perturbation
Type
|
Per-sample
perturbation
|
Universal
perturbation
|
| --- | --- | --- |
| Small scale dataset | (Madry et al., [2017](#bib.bib18)) | ✓ |
| Large scale dataset | \\\backslash\ | ✓ |... |
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