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57bd0c7b-88a9-400e-b183-0919a927f22f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | What I mean by “alignment is in large part about making cognition aimable at all”
*(Epistemic status: attempting to clear up a misunderstanding about points I have attempted to make in the past. This post is not intended as an argument for those points.)*
I have long said that the lion’s share of the AI alignment pr... |
214f0c92-944b-4724-92f9-6ac831a17234 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Mirror Problem in AI: Why Language Models Say Whatever You Want
By Rob Tuncks
I ran a simple test and uncovered something quietly dangerous about the way language models reason.
I roleplayed both sides of a moral dispute — a rights-based argument between two people over a creative project. I posed the case as "F... |
b082460a-63d1-4c70-8a34-21686271d1c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesian probability theory as extended logic -- a new result
I have a new paper that strengthens the case for strong Bayesianism, a.k.a. One Magisterium Bayes. The paper is entitled "From propositional logic to plausible reasoning: a uniqueness theorem." (The preceding link will be good for a few weeks, after which o... |
446b6c65-1ac9-4fb8-9406-e366386c0f4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is complexity science? (Not computational complexity theory) How useful is it? What areas is it related to?
I've been reading "Playing with movement - Hargrove 2019". This book told me about "complexity science", which is a field which supposedly studies complex systems and it does it not by reductionism, but by ... |
42d40b8b-d2a5-4bc6-ba11-2e81639cec40 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | AI Safety with Buck Shlegeris
[Music]
hey folks welcome to narratives
narratives is a podcast exploring the
ways in which the world is better than
in the past the ways it is worse and the
paths towards a better more definite
vision of the future
i'm your host will jarvis and i want to
thank you for taking the time out... |
53ed472d-98ab-4119-b6d0-3bbc3e90a2eb | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: e9a45b7c48914b59
Detecting misbehavior in frontier reasoning models | OpenAI Skip to main content Log in Switch to ChatGPT (opens in a new window) Sora (opens in a new window) API Platform (opens in a new window) Research Safety For Business For Developers ChatGPT Sora Stories Company News Research Back to main me... |
9c55ba4e-8cd2-4278-90b6-b0a78befc9a5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alignment Newsletter #52
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter.
Highlights
Thoughts on Human Models (Ramana Kumar and Scott Garrabrant): Many approaches to AI safety involve modeling humans... |
235da397-0483-485f-b1a2-7b65748f7566 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Big Berkeley Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Big Berkeley Meetup
WHEN: 16 May 2012 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 2128 Oxford St, Berkeley, CA
We will meet at 7:00pm at the Oxford St Starbucks. This will be a big meetup.
Discussion article for the meetup : Big Berkeley Meetup |
134382b1-8e80-4e8e-b91b-77fabd494c04 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What AI safety problems need solving for safe AI research assistants?
In his AI Safety “Success Stories” post, Wei Dai writes:
> [This] comparison table makes Research Assistant seem a particularly attractive scenario to aim for, as a stepping stone to a more definitive success story. Is this conclusion actually just... |
3ffcb35b-d086-4084-8416-2f416b57e918 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | This year's biggest scientific achievements
For our solstice event I tried to put together a list of this year’s biggest scientific achievements. They can likely all be looked up with a bit of searching and each one is worthy of a celebration in their own right. But mostly I want to say; we have come a long way this... |
b8be4397-63cc-4b87-aac2-b578699b801d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Optimization and the Intelligence Explosion
Among the topics I haven’t delved into here is the notion of an optimization process. Roughly, this is the idea that your power as a mind is your ability to hit small targets in a large search space—this can be either the space of possible futures (planning) or the space of ... |
9796fa86-57e3-400e-803b-1610f59530a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Contra Acemoglu on AI
The Simple Macroeconomics of AI is a 2024 working paper by Daron Acemoglu which models the economic growth effects of AI and predicts them to be small: About a .06% increase in TFP growth annually. This stands in contrast to many predictions which forecast immense impacts on economic growth from ... |
8eeb7c88-070c-4393-946a-e983b86c07f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Soul of the Writer (on LLMs, the psychology of writers, and the nature of intelligence)
> “GPT is not like us — but it is of us. It has read more of humanity's writing than any human, ever, by orders of magnitude. All of its behaviors, good and bad, hold up a mirror to the human soul.”
>
> — “Sam Altman asks: Sho... |
7abb3fd4-90c5-4013-8b16-9bb5a4fd316e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on safety in predictive learning
(Many thanks to Abram Demski for an extensive discussion that helped clarify my thoughts. Thanks Abram & John Maxwell for comments and criticisms on a draft.)
Background: Why do I care?
Way back in ancient history, i.e. two years ago, my first ever attempt to contribute some... |
9cae883a-1abd-4703-b220-72307006a909 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Querying the AGI user
If we're supposing that an [advanced agent](https://arbital.com/p/2c) is checking something Potentially Bad with its user to find out if the thing is Considered Bad by that user, we need to worry about the following generic issues:
- Can the AI tell which things are Potentially Bad in a way that... |
51dbfb45-c916-4237-97a2-7d7637daaa51 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Good Futures Initiative: Winter Project Internship
TLDR: I'm launching Good Futures Initiative, a winter project internship to sponsor students to take on projects to upskill, test their fit for career aptitudes, or do impactful work over winter break. You can read more on our website and apply here by December 11th ... |
e0456dfb-7320-4a40-b13b-22a2c94043bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reason as Attentional Prosthesis
[cross-posted from: http://garybasin.com/reason-as-attentional-prosthesis/]
What are we doing when thinking, or reasoning?
Often, thinking is goal-directed. There is some outcome we are trying to achieve or problem we are trying to solve. In hindsight, answers often seem obvious. “Wh... |
c65183e3-4345-4c22-8225-d2966403e9d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What podcasts does the community listen to?
Hi everyone! Excited to hear what people in the community listen to.
I have been recently enjoying the 80,000 hours podcast and Tyler Cowen's.
https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/
https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler |
854555a2-f807-4e9f-b215-c6cd05128dcd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How have analogous Industries solved Interested > Trained > Employed bottlenecks?
It seems like one of the biggest problems* in AI Safety is that it is ridiculously hard to get good training (i.e. MATS is ridiculously competitive now) and employed (samesies).
Has anyone look across other categories (e.g. potential ot... |
342337a6-948b-4a19-8932-22df7e8cefb1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intention to Treat
When my son was three, we enrolled him in a study of a vision condition that runs in my family. They wanted us to put an eyepatch on him for part of each day, with a little sensor object that went under the patch and detected body heat to record when we were doing it. They paid for his first pair ... |
30df204a-d112-4edc-9358-149dd5e93d7d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting Newsletter: January 2021
Highlights
1. Veteran PredictIt trader writes a pretty good guide on how to make money on prediction markets.
2. Metaculus and Hypermind both have new COVID-19 forecasting tournaments.
3. I created a search engine for probabilities.
Index
* Highlights
* Prediction Markets & ... |
6803fc6a-0f75-443f-9eb2-00f5c6cd240b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Arguing from a Gap of Perspective
TL;DR
This post gives a name to a concept that I've encountered in many discussions recently: The Gap of Perspective. The concept is very similar to Inferential Distance in that there is a difficulty conveying your point with appropriate strength because of a huge difference in knowle... |
6a732efa-a0cb-4591-9c94-e5be1a807ba8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Free Money at PredictIt: 2020 General Election
Previously: Free Money at PredictIt?
It’s time for another look at PredictIt. Is there free money? What are our best options for free money?
The short answer is that there is free money if and only if you have available capital at PredictIt.
There is no free money if... |
fc8d062f-67c6-49a9-a01d-180f7665b2a9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | How popular is ChatGPT? Part 1: more popular than Taylor Swift
*Harlan Stewart, 23 February 2023*
Introduction
------------
Public attention toward AI seems much higher after the release of ChatGPT at the end of November. But how much higher is it? To better understand this, I looked at search data from Google Tre... |
a20c8318-5f1f-4961-8ba7-a00de5898797 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Two Types of Updatelessness
*[Cross-posted.](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=1765)*
Just a small note which I’m not sure has been mentioned anywhere else:
It seems like there are two different classes of “updateless reasoning”.
In problems like Agent Simulates Predictor, switching to updateless reasoning is be... |
5dbf904c-3efd-447c-9138-fdf8874f1966 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | CoreWeave Is A Time Bomb
Read the full article here. Highlights below:
> OpenAI announced the completion of a deal with Coreweave valued at $11.9bn that would see it procure AI compute from the company, while also taking a $350m stake in the business.
> ...
> CoreWeave is, on many levels, indicative of the larger su... |
2b0c75d4-3c3d-430e-9a37-b99ab6d62f1e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Finding the estimate of the value of a state in RL agents
Clément Dumas, Walter Laurito, Robert Klassert, Kaarel Hänni
Epistemic Status: Initial Exploration
The following is a status update of a project started as part of the SPAR program. We explored some initial directions and there are still a lot of low-hanging ... |
9f58c9f1-d195-4d8d-9500-09fdaa5766cd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Teaching language models to support answers with verified quotes
2022-03-16
Teaching language models to support
answers with verified quotes
Jacob Menick*,1,2, Maja Trebacz*,1, Vladimir Mikulik*,1, John Aslanides1, Francis Song1,
Martin Chadwick1, Mia Glaese1, Susannah Young1, Lucy Campbell-Gillingam1, Geoffrey Irving1
... |
3058d148-b8f1-4627-a222-4170782c1aa2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Demo Day 14: AI safety at Faculty talk
Thanks thanks everyone
tough tough acts to follow I will talk
to you guys about some of the work we've
been doing the last year or so and a
nice safety I'll talk for about ten
minutes and then you can go get drinks
and hang out and rest for another ten or
so excellent talks so my... |
bc4b4872-3f22-410b-bc99-2b5c0da6e670 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tonic Judo
(Content note: This is a story about one of the times that I've applied my understanding of rationality to reduce the severity of an affect-laden situation. This may remind you of Bayesian Judo, because it involves the mental availability and use of basic rationality techniques to perform feats that, althou... |
3a8ffa3e-8130-4f39-b70b-735634cf3012 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow, BeliefBusters
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow, BeliefBusters
WHEN: 27 October 2013 04:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Russia, Moscow, ulitsa L'va Tolstogo 16
This time we will create new beliefs from the old ones.
We will also have short presentation about buying behaviour and attitudes toward m... |
29046863-b00e-4aa0-a0fb-fe82480d2b2b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Long Now, and Culture vs Artifacts
I've recently gotten re-interested in The Long Now Foundation, and had a conversation about it that seemed worth writing down.
Longtermism vs Pivotal Generationism
I love the Long Now's aesthetic. I'm super looking forward to one day taking the pilgrimage to the Giant Forever Cloc... |
4e19454a-d022-4064-b61c-386342a2e3e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can you be 100% confident in your moral beliefs?
Recently, I had a discussion with a close friend about morality and, let us say, fundamentals of epistemology. This person has no connection to the aspiring rationalist community.
We started out talking about discussion norms. I had sent my friend Julia Galef's talk on... |
7f7feca3-9e04-4fb9-b2af-81a0dae109c7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Jack Clark on the realities of AI policy
Some choice picks:
> The real danger in Western AI policy isn't that AI is doing bad stuff, it's that governments are so unfathomably behind the frontier that they have no notion of \_how\_ to regulate, and it's unclear if they \_can\_
>
> Many AI policy teams in industry ar... |
162215af-10bd-47d4-bdea-b1dd7eb8e158 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Interim research report] Evaluating the Goal-Directedness of Language Models
This post was written as part of the summer 2024 cohort of the ML Alignment & Theory Scholars program, under the mentorship of Marius Hobbhahn.
Summary
Over the past four weeks, we have been developing an evaluation suite to measure the go... |
91b6b6fe-4ef3-488b-b0f6-75c9f0a55492 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | That Magical Click
Followup to: Normal Cryonics
Yesterday I spoke of that cryonics gathering I recently attended, where travel by young cryonicists was fully subsidized, leading to extremely different demographics from conventions of self-funded activists. 34% female, half of those in couples, many couples with kid... |
fa08884a-f910-4b07-83d8-7521ac84325d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Occam's razor is insufficient to infer the preferences of irrational agents
1 Introduction
---------------
In today’s reinforcement learning systems, a simple reward function is often hand-crafted, and still sometimes leads to undesired behaviors on the part of RL agent, as the reward is not well aligned with the o... |
33aa6413-c2e9-4d71-96da-b167a8cbf734 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anyone want to proofread my intro article about anthropics?
I'm a bit nervous about just posting it to the front page, so would some people be willing to give me some constructive criticism?
Thanks |
2db2f32a-61c9-4bb5-9c76-ff9970431d1d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | List of resolved confusions about IDA
AI Alignment is a confusing topic in general, but even compared to other alignment topics, IDA seems especially confusing. Some of it is surely just due to the nature of communicating subtle and unfinished research ideas, but other confusions can be cleared up with more specific l... |
53cb4ee9-7637-4677-b6d6-e39b075889a5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | GPT-3 + GAN
I am wondering if anyone tried to combine GPT-3 with GAN, basically trying to train network that would feed GPT-3 questions and then judge responses as correct/incorrect, thus providing GPT-3 opportunity to improve.
Does my question even make sense or I am far off base? |
ee7185d3-2a0d-435f-9a33-6e73ccbff7f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Active learning for opaque predictors
Summary: I propose a simple open question that is directly relevant to the feasibility of my recent AI control proposals.
I've recently written a lot about AI control schemes based on counterfactual oversight, which are directed by predicted human behavior. A good example is desc... |
b646a02e-5a3f-4d2e-9b1d-3ab118613c8e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Customized Handling of Unintended Interface Operation in Assistive Robots
1 Introduction
---------------
One of the most promising application domains for shared human-robot
control is assistive devices. In this domain, robotics autonomy
collaborates with a human in the operation of their assistive device,
with the... |
ba5078fb-7329-4dbc-bc87-9b9ae37ecfcb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I don't want to listen, because I will believe you
I often encounter a seemingly implicit belief that listening to someone's opinion or idea is something that can be done in exchange for merely the time spent doing so. This idea seemed so obviously true when I glanced upon it in my mind, I was almost certain it was wr... |
4e829a7e-5fb8-4ea1-b1b9-7922712fb51e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Injecting noise to GPT to get multiple answers
Hi,
I'm currently conducting a small research on GPT-3 (using the API). The research involves some tasks which GPT should do; e.g. arithmetic with big numbers. The answers are always short and includes a single token.
I would like to get multiple responses to the same ... |
99e2f0bb-b1bf-4b94-92b2-721ee281b6f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gap in understanding of Logical Pinpointing
I had originally found myself very confused by how the second order axiom of induction restricted PA to a single model, leading to this discussion where I thought doing so would violate the incompleteness theorem.
What I misunderstood is that while the axiom schema of induc... |
29481fc4-d3f3-4e23-958b-9e4079308625 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paper digestion: "May We Have Your Attention Please? Human-Rights NGOs and the Problem of Global Communication"
The following is a digestion of the research paper "May We Have Your Attention Please? Human-Rights NGOs and the Problem of Global Communication" by A. Trevor Thrall, Dominik Stecula, and Diana Sweet (see li... |
21dd681b-1daa-4ea5-9de1-9362568fbda4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | January 2015 Media Thread
This is the monthly thread for posting media of various types that you've found that you enjoy. Post what you're reading, listening to, watching, and your opinion of it. Post recommendations to blogs. Post whatever media you feel like discussing! To see previous recommendations, check out the... |
f9e68d34-a0f8-4e8d-a272-c5fee70ce263 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the best tools for recording predictions?
Preferably, follow rules from "Best Textbooks in any Subject." I'm interested in people who have tried 2-3 prediction-recording tools, and can argue why one is better than the others.
I've decided I finally want to get gud at calibration.
I'm personally just intere... |
60779408-7d3f-42dc-8731-03680969c636 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A question about the rules
I'm new to Less Wrong and I have a question about the rules. I posted a link to the latest post on my blog, in which I argue in a polemical way against the claim that Trump's election caused a wave of hate crimes in the US. Someone complained about the tone of my post, which is fair enough (... |
f46cf1d8-5088-44bc-b76a-537946c006c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Logical Inductor Tiling and Why it's Hard
(Tiling result due to Sam, exposition of obstacles due to me)
----------------------------------------
#Definitions:
ϕ(x––) is a sentence with a specific number plugged in for x.
Aω is the set of all infinite action sequences. For convenience, the set of actions will be ta... |
2c11e6fe-6e10-422b-9d02-c1d470aaf0f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ways to organize a search for a missing person in LA from abroad?
TL/DR: My father-in-law is missing, asking for help/advice in coordinating search from abroad
This is not the thing I hoped I would post here after years of lurking, but situation is rather extreme and I try to get all the help I could get.
My father-... |
5ca90f9b-6dbb-4f96-b2ff-d8d579bb7385 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Circling as Cousin to Rationality
Often, I talk to people who are highly skeptical, systematic thinkers who are frustrated with the level of inexplicable interest in Circling (previously discussed on LW) among some rationalists. “Sure,” they might say, “I can see how it might be a fun experience for some people, but w... |
40b528a7-97bb-4d02-8bbf-9a4da9f14993 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Update to Samotsvety AGI timelines
Previously: [Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/EG9xDM8YRz4JN4wMN/samotsvety-s-ai-risk-forecasts).
Our colleagues at [Epoch](https://epochai.org/) recently asked us to update our AI timelines estimate for their upcoming literature review on TAI... |
e53833c2-d5a0-44e1-86e4-746701fa3f94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Failure in the marketplace of ideas
There is considerable disagreement over which things are roughly good or bad for the world. Encouraging same-sex marriage, speeding the cogs of ‘progress’, compelling would-be immigrants to live in third world shanty towns, and building self-replicating nanobots are considered by di... |
2b6b1a8b-ee35-46b8-9cde-8414b6a9aaeb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Honor
This post examines the virtue of honor. I mean to explore what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than to express my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I wrote this not as an expert, but as some... |
2357b220-8b83-40c9-83a1-e8b54c2132bd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Bridging syntax and semantics, empirically
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap; f... |
e2123a0c-2e47-412a-9f85-29d9c0d8c414 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (Philosophical) Disagreements are not Rational
This is a combination news-announcement and begging for someone with academic subscriptions to maybe jailbreak a PDF for us.
"Persistent bias in expert judgments about free will and moral responsibility: A test of the expertise defense" (emphasis added):
> "Many philoso... |
16d63f9d-23c9-4b4c-b85c-46f249ceabe3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AIFoom Debate - conclusion?
I've been going through the AIFoom debate, and both sides makes sense to me. I intend to continue, but I'm wondering if there're already insights in LW culture I can get if I just ask for them.
My understanding is as follows:
The difference between a chimp and a human is only 5 mill... |
3acfd3e2-3acd-440d-8bdf-967f30e403b3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Humans pretending to be robots pretending to be human
[Apparently](https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2022/03/28/is-open-ai-cooking-the-books-on-gpt-3), Open AI's GPT-3 isn't entirely what it seems. |
ec051abc-df30-42f1-948f-216f5f3666a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's the "This AI is of moral concern." fire alarm?
Given the recent noise on this issue around LaMDA, I thought it might be a good idea to have some discussion around this point. I'm curious about what possible evidence would make people update in favor of a given system being morally relevant. Less "here's the ans... |
837a828b-236a-4c67-84f3-b8785a1d150c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Is "Recursive Self-Improvement" Relevant in the Deep Learning Paradigm?
Disclaimer
----------
I wrote this three months ago, and abandoned it[[1]](#fnl22qk49d8pa). I currently do not plan to return to it anytime soon, but [I have nonetheless found myself wanting](https://twitter.com/CineraVerinia/status/1643696723565... |
f00ad1b6-51ba-4300-be57-6a14c835456b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Advanced AI can beat humanity
A core claim AI risk arguments rely on is the following:
**Claim:** "A sufficiently capable AI system could cause human extinction, if this was something it aimed for."[[1]](#fn9tiq6wapcvp)
Below I explain why I believe this claim is true. The target audience is people who have thought... |
7fce6e8b-bc9b-4d16-9869-9d27835a2e39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LessWrong Diplomacy Game 2015
Related: Diplomacy as a Game Theory Laboratory by Yvain.
I've been floating this idea around for a while, and there was enough interest to organize it.
Diplomacy is a board game of making and breaking alliances. It is a semi-iterative prisoner's dilemma with 7 prisoners. The rules are v... |
03864bb3-0ce9-4409-8a79-d86c6daa50cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Good transhumanist fiction?
I just watched this, a very pretty version of "don't try to make yourself different, just accept who you are", and I realized that self-directed change in fiction is a worthwhile topic.
What I'm looking for is stories where main characters change themselves in ways which are basically impr... |
f1479d11-817e-4acf-beb4-6ccf8f45e659 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Has government or industry had greater past success in maintaining really powerful technological secrets?
Context: As part of our efforts of working on Open Questions the LessWrong team has been reaching out to various researchers we know and asked them about questions they would be interested in getting answered.
Th... |
3aa96a59-6927-4e9a-a7fb-1362d3c92fa1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow, Measurements
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow, Measurements
WHEN: 28 April 2013 04:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Russia, Moscow, ulitsa L'va Tolstogo 16
Please use the following guide to get to the meetup: link. You need the second revolving door with the sign “Yandex Money” in Russian. We will ... |
a6c3413b-c888-48af-b241-7b61f3407874 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Helsinki Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Helsinki Meetup
WHEN: 15 September 2011 06:00:15PM (+0300)
WHERE: Yliopistonkatu 5, 00100 Helsinki, Finland
Helsinki LW-Meetup at Cafe Picnic.
Discussion article for the meetup : Helsinki Meetup |
fb7802c6-cbd5-44a7-8574-899f0d6b1249 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A path to human autonomy
> "Each one of us, and also us as the current implementation of humanity are going to be replaced. Persistence in current form is impossible. It's impossible in biology; every species will either die out or it will change and adapt, in which case it is again not the same species. So the next q... |
68180137-f584-42bc-bdad-63cf746b8e93 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An approach to the Agent Simulates Predictor problem
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4e4fdceb-c3ca-49cd-b679-731a218a547e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Artificial Intelligence and Life Sciences (Why Big Data is not enough to capture biological systems?)
Introduction
Artificial intelligence algorithms, and in particular deep learning, are becoming increasingly relevant to biology research. With these algorithms it is possible to analyze large amounts of data that are ... |
cfa87a86-9bbc-46ae-91ff-4a675dca9eb7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Market Manipulation: An Adversarial Learning Framework for Detection and Evasion.
Market Manipulation: An Adversarial Learning Framework for Detection and
Evasion
Xintong Wang andMichael P. Wellman
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
xintongw@umich.edu, wellman@umich.edu
Abstract
We propose an adversarial learning frame... |
eac5a071-c02d-4520-a03c-7ff81d341e27 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Wireheading as a potential problem with the new impact measure
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; wh... |
ed1b52e6-f4f1-4434-baeb-0532a86c7d22 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2 Events with Christine Peterson in Vancouver This Week!
[Note: if you are not or will not be in/around Vancouver, Canada on Friday or Saturday this weekend, ignore this post.]
[Meta: I would usually reserve announcements like this to Facebook events for the relevant groups, or an event on the LessWrong 'Community' p... |
ee3cbfa5-b32b-42b2-8722-6d9af76777d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | on “learning to summarize”
This post is a much extended version of an LW comment I made about OpenAI’s new paper, “Learning to summarize from human feedback.”
Context: this paper is a direct extension of the work OpenAI published last year about fine-tuning GPT-2 with human preference data. I hadn’t actually read th... |
99f0be76-0738-44ef-ab30-4037e098414c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Many (Smallish) Organic Compounds Are There?
Introduction
Here's a question I've been pondering recently: how many organic compounds are there? There are multiple ways to interpret the question, each of which leads to consideration of a different potential set of compounds, and each of which is informative in its ... |
e27e8323-2633-47ff-815d-a221c3c77595 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | How should AI systems behave, and who should decide? [OpenAI blog]
OpenAI writes a (vague) blog explaining how they plan to adjust ChatGPT from here. Their key plans are:
**1. Improve default behavior**. We want as many users as possible to find our AI systems useful to them “out of the box” and to feel that our tech... |
63e55031-bb23-48a7-917f-41653b8f4e6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Meetup : San Jose Meetup: Park Day (VII)
Discussion article for the meetup : Meetup : San Jose Meetup: Park Day (VII)
WHEN: 21 August 2016 03:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 438 Coleman Ave, San Jose, CA 95110
Update: It turns out I won't be able to attend. Sorry for the late notice. I can no longer guarantee that ... |
22b08f45-7a9d-4e21-a80d-a20ff2213937 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | "Personal Identity and Uploading", by Mark Walker
[“Personal Identity and Uploading”](http://jetpress.org/v22/walker.htm), [Mark Walker](http://www.nmsu.edu/~philos/mark-walkers-home-page.html) is the next JET paper. Abstract:
>
> Objections to uploading may be parsed into substrate issues, dealing with the comput... |
64b878a8-a15b-4a7c-9e93-70165419acec | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "AI Alignment is a confusing topic in general, but even compared to other alignment topics, IDA seems especially confusing. Some of it is surely just due to the nature of communicating subtle and unfinished research ideas, but other confusions can be cleared up with more specific language or additional explanations. To... |
4e190c5a-c15f-4f88-8741-02027d62e5f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thinking Fast and Hard
Cross-posted from Putanumonit.
Note: Yes, I know about Worm. No, I haven't read past the first quarter or so.
----------------------------------------
A cool superpower to have would be the ability to slow subjective time and get a lot of thinking done.
In every superhero movie, no matter ho... |
b1d1c8a9-398d-433a-ab2b-495c662e154e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cambridge (England) lecture: Existential Risk: Surviving the 21st Century, 26th February
The Centre for the Study of Existential Risk will be holding a public lecture on "Existential Risk: Surviving the 21st Century" in collaboration with 80,000 Hours: Cambridge and Giving What We Can: Cambridge on the 26th of Februa... |
88e87fca-8c8c-46d8-b084-8e015783c431 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Benchmarking LLM Agents on Kaggle Competitions
tl;dr: I prompted ChatGPT to participate in a Kaggle data science competition. It successfully wrote scripts that trained models to predict housing prices, and ultimately outperformed 71% of human participants.
I'm not planning to build a benchmark using Kaggle competi... |
85fc7bed-3c77-4e6d-8025-ed256e1af375 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is a reasonably complete set of the different meanings of "hard work"?
The concept of "hard work" seems very confusing to me.
I think it could mean combinations of many different things. It doesn't seem that helpful for actually carving reality at the joints for engineering purposes and getting better at whateve... |
8df3bf85-acf6-47a0-9c26-05c492aa3647 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Meaning of Life
Fifteen thousand years ago, our ancestors bred dogs to serve man. In merely 150 centuries, we shaped collies to herd our sheep and pekingese to sit in our emperor's sleeves. Wild wolves can't understand us, but we teach their domesticated counterparts tricks for fun. And, most importantly of all, d... |
598231ab-70ea-4b19-9240-e4d533ca9e1b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Refuting the "iron law of bureaucracy"?
Jerry Pournelle's "Iron Law of Bureaucracy" implies that leaders of bureaucratic organizations will seek to maximize the power and influence of the organization at the expense of its stated goals - but is that true in the real world?
Julie Dolan of Macalester College examined s... |
53fb5b0c-aa37-443c-894d-20daa4da894a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Holden Karnofsky's Singularity Institute Objection 3
The sheer length of GiveWell co-founder and co-executive director Holden Karnofsky's excellent critique of the Singularity Institute means that it's hard to keep track of the resulting discussion. I propose to break out each of his objections into a separate Discus... |
a80c0efd-998f-4bad-b856-6f3b7d8974d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Social Choice Ethics in Artificial Intelligence (paper challenging CEV-like approaches to choosing an AI's values)
|
08f2c909-c84d-495d-95bf-9da2123c637f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups: Dublin, Madison WI, Pittsburgh, Edinburgh, Melbourne, Penn State, Austin, and London
There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in:
* Dublin, IE, Meetup: 15 October 2011 02:00PM
* Monday Madison Meetup: 17 October 2011 06:00PM
* Pittsburgh Meetup: Expert Presentation on Motivati... |
4ae560ff-3507-4b6f-83a3-f37b1eaae34b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does isolating the high-risk suppress COVID-19?
We have 1-2 years before COVID-19 lockdowns are lifted permanently.
Until then, government's globally have adopted indiscriminate social distancing measures.
However, +99% of COVID-19 deaths are from those with pre-existing conditions.
If we targeted and isolated thes... |
64644db3-6f7b-4db0-a78c-5caf23afa991 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Implementing Asimov's Laws of Robotics - How I imagine alignment working.
The Three Laws of Robotics
In 1942 Isaac Asimov started a series of short stories about robots. In those stories, his robots were programed to obey the three laws of robotics.
The three laws:
1. A robot may not injure a human being or, throug... |
f608a6d0-74a4-4b24-9aec-ef114800fb2a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Follow-up to Julia Wise on "Don’t Shoot The Dog"
Julia Wise recently wrote up notes from "Don’t Shoot The Dog", a book by Karen Pryor about behavioral training methods:
> The book applies behavioral psychology to training animals and people. The author started off as a dolphin trainer at an aquarium park in the 1960s... |
8f99d828-dd5b-4ea3-9a56-cebbd229c62a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to choose what to work on
So you want to advance human progress. And you’re wondering, what should you, personally, do? Say you have talent, ambition, and drive—how do you choose a project or career?
There are a few frameworks for making this decision. Recently, though, I’ve started to see pitfalls with some of t... |
eb33619d-f0fa-474d-94a5-f41dfd55b9df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Repost] My First Insight After CFAR, or the Art of Not Needing to Ask Permission
I wrote this in the summer of 2015, in the week after I attended a CFAR workshop and met the in-person community for the first time. I no longer have the blog I wrote this to at the time, so I've reposted it to my new blog here for poste... |
4b910370-d042-4424-9836-253e8e9d3344 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Guardian article covering Lightcone Infrastructure, Manifest and CFAR ties to FTX
Response from Habryka: |
fd4f2c6c-f24d-4b8a-98a1-bbe157f9abb4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Provably Beneficial AI | Stuart Russell
you
[Music]
I'm going to talk about the reasons why
we're here to some extent and then what
I'm doing about it so the reason why
we're here is in some sense the
extrapolation of the talk that we just
heard that progress is occurring is
occurring at a rapidly increasing rate
and ... |
68184c64-6f03-42e0-999f-8a47a2c05bc8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cynicism in Ev-Psych (and Econ?)
Though I know more about the former than the latter, I begin to suspect that different styles of cynicism prevail in evolutionary psychology than in microeconomics.
Evolutionary psychologists are absolutely and uniformly cynical about the real reason why humans are universally wired w... |
8979f842-2146-47c6-8351-a0e10fe15597 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Transforming Worlds: Automated Involutive MCMC for Open-Universe Probabilistic Models.
3rd Symposium on Advances in Approximate Bayesian Inference, 2020 1{37
Transforming Worlds: Automated Involutive MCMC for
Open-Universe Probabilistic Models
George Matheos1;2;georgematheos@berkeley.edu
Alexander K. Lew1;alexlew@mi... |
4de70b50-20ad-40c4-a9c5-a1b43a9a225d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Jackpot! An AI Vignette
I started noticing the world had gotten weirder when my grandmother messaged the family that she wanted to do her 80th birthday party in Reno.
Don't get me wrong, Reno is great - biggest little city in the world! - but we're New Yorkers, why on earth fly to a desert? If you want to rough it, l... |
a39de827-2449-4690-96d1-6a3b312a977e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Has Eliezer publicly and satisfactorily responded to attempted rebuttals of the analogy to evolution?
I refer to these posts:
https://optimists.ai/2023/11/28/ai-is-easy-to-control/
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hvz9qjWyv8cLX9JJR/evolution-provides-no-evidence-for-the-sharp-left-turn
https://www.lesswrong.com/post... |
9620530e-0a4a-4376-bdbd-84865aa8c83c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Off to Alice Springs
Am about to pack up computer then go to the airport to start a sequence of flights to give this a try.
I already have a room in a hostel booked for a few nights for when I get there, and will see how stuff goes.
Anyways, since there's been on and off discussion on this, just thought I'd post tha... |
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