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975df3d6-7be3-4f42-8b7d-91c63500b90c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Hammer Time Final Exam
Epistemic Status: I thought about and wrote each paragraph in 10 minutes total, with slight editing afterwards.
I hope I'm not too late to the party!
I wrote this up quite a few months ago and found that I delayed indefinitely editing it before publication. I decided it's probably best to ... |
c1fb280f-2bd8-4a92-ac9b-ad75c851903d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Could evolution have selected for moral realism?
I was surprised to see the high number of moral realists on Less Wrong, so I thought I would bring up a (probably unoriginal) point that occurred to me a while ago.
Let's say that all your thoughts either seem factual or fictional. Memories seem factual, stories seem ... |
036a52fa-7cac-4fcc-ac65-b27b9e0c177a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Request for advices on small presentation about LW community
In a couple of weeks I'll be giving a small (~50m) presentation about LW community on "social sciences sunday" in Saint Petersburg.
Target audience - students, teachers and young recearcher mostly from social sciences and humanities.
I'm planning to at lea... |
36292856-86f5-48a4-9aee-0afa3975ddbe | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Quantitative cruxes in Alignment
***Summary:** Sometimes researchers talk past each other because their intuitions disagree on underlying quantitative variables. Getting better estimates of these variables is action-guiding. This is an epistemological study to bring them to the surface, as well as discover which sourc... |
346b538d-17ff-4969-ad13-3a323b7a6c7b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Toby Ord's new report on lessons from the development of the atomic bomb
Toby Ord has written a [new report](https://www.governance.ai/research-paper/lessons-atomic-bomb-ord) with [GovAI](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/centre-for-the-governance-of-ai) on lessons from the development of the atomic bomb rele... |
285a8296-df7f-43ed-9d81-1a004d35c274 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Other Existential Crisis
A DIFFICULT QUESTION
On the way to drop my daughter to her friend's house, we're listening to AI Samson talk about o1-Preview, and in a clip, Jensen Huang mentions that people should work on their natural language abilities—technical coding will all be done by AI. My daughter asked...
> .... |
727b84a2-a40e-4cd6-9a3a-8ab914e239d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Cognitive Costs to Doing Things
What's the mental burden of trying to do something? What's it cost? What price are you going to pay if you try to do something out in the world.
I think that by figuring out what the usual costs to doing things are, we can reduce the costs and otherwise structure our lives so that ... |
e1c6c56b-d15f-44ff-8253-e242e38767a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Science is Mining, not Foraging
Tl;dr: My model for science is that it is like mining outwards from a point. This offers predictions that extend beyond Scott Alexander’s foraging metaphor and sometimes disagree. The mining metaphor emphasises the fact that research exposes new research problems; that research is much ... |
7df2070f-190a-4ecf-9fd2-5d8dbbd37610 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does improved introspection cause rationalisation to become less noticeable?
I've recently updated that noticing is a key rationality skill -- not just noticing confusion, but noticing your cognition more generally. This allows you to figure out at a very granular level why you're not reaching your goals, and then int... |
b8f97676-9d8a-4b92-a721-99977889265f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What I would like the SIAI to publish
**Major update** [here](http://kruel.co/2012/11/03/what-i-would-like-the-singularity-institute-to-publish/).
**Related to:** [Should I believe what the SIAI claims?](/lw/2l0/should_i_believe_what_the_siai_claims)
**Reply to:** [Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary I... |
a13dfcbc-aaf8-4004-8c14-eee4325bf392 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bioconservative and biomoderate singularitarian positions
Let us define a singularitarian as a person who considers it likely that some form of smarter than human intelligence will be developed in a characteristic timeframe of a century, and that the manner in which this event occurs is important enough to expend effo... |
d6707e29-f794-4783-9cf6-bf1419d33cfd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Apply for mentorship in AI Safety field-building
**TLDR:** I often meet AI safety field-builders who are looking for advice or mentorship. I also know some who have (limited) capacity to give advice or mentorship.
**Fill out** [**this short form**](https://forms.gle/sL9RUaDw1idjY9bd8) **if you are interested in ment... |
6d0e050e-da35-47f7-a337-7431f38e8929 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a rationalist skill tree yet?
A while back I came across a delightful web developer skill tree, and I was wondering if technical rationality has gotten to the point where someone could make one of these for an aspiring rationalist.
I think seeing a clear progression from beginning skills to advanced ones lai... |
8a9bea3d-e54b-4534-a84a-9f166cc155ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup - Type 1 to Type 2 Bridging
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup - Type 1 to Type 2 Bridging
WHEN: 16 January 2013 07:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064
Orion will be hosting this week's meetup, and asked me to post the following:
When: 7:00pm W... |
c1d8d113-0ab9-468d-bf81-2500d1b8eb9c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Case for Human Genetic Engineering
This is the first post in what I hope will be a series of posts arguing that genetically engineering humans may provide a huge benefit to individuals and society as a whole. In the interest of creating something readable, this post will largely ignore the controversies and uninte... |
88fece5c-578e-4bac-a4c0-19546301fbb7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Audio Version of "How to Actually Change Your Mind"
The audio version of the mega-sequence "How to Actually Change Your Mind" is now available. It's the biggest sequence we've done yet, coming in at over 8 hours of audio. Here at Castify we think this sequence is the most important one we've done so far.
On the wik... |
32383d09-4eac-49a6-b163-7c7380ef527f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Pinpointing Utility
**Following** [Morality is Awesome](/lw/g7y/morality_is_awesome/). **Related:** [Logical Pinpointing](/lw/f4e/logical_pinpointing/), [VNM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Von_Neumann%E2%80%93Morgenstern_utility_theorem).
The eternal question, with a quantitative edge: A wizard has turned you into a... |
39784779-c6b8-4f70-af6d-a1ed973eedec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The Sacred Mundane
Today's post, The Sacred Mundane was originally published on 25 March 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> There are a lot of bad habits of thought that have developed to defend religious and spiritual experience. They aren't worth saving, even if we discard the original lie. ... |
ba7fe626-dfd8-4d98-a3fb-45698fb6b6fb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The Bletchley Declaration on AI Safety
The Bletchley Declaration was just released at the At AI Safety Summit.
Tl;dr: The declaration underscores the transformative potential and risks of AI. Countries, including major global powers, commit to harnessing AI's benefits while addressing its challenges, especially the ... |
49e9a44b-3935-4129-85f3-af7ca3827234 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fashionable or Fundamental Thought in Communities
There's a couple interesting things about the 2011 LessWrong post, "Approving reinforces low-effort behaviors."
The post itself is fascinating to re-read — there's some valuable and profitable ideas in there.
But two sentences also stood out to me on more of a meta-l... |
33a4156f-8b38-41d7-97ba-e32f9dec7fbf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Urbana-Champaign fun and games
Discussion article for the meetup : Urbana-Champaign fun and games
WHEN: 07 December 2013 02:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 412 W. Elm St., Urbana, IL, 61801
Come drop by my house for board games, food, and word-talky-stuff.
Discussion article for the meetup : Urbana-Champaign fun ... |
4405fe3d-0a4b-472a-a54a-e6487c26c0a1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | 2015 in review
As Luke had done in years past (see [2013 in review](https://intelligence.org/2013/12/20/2013-in-review-operations) and [2014 in review](https://intelligence.org/2015/03/22/2014-review/)), I (Malo) wanted to take some time to review our activities from last year. In the coming weeks Nate will provide a ... |
68cf5167-ba5b-462c-99aa-91b503e54b4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inner Belt
A friend recently wrote in a local group that "the disastrous Inner Belt 'redevelopment' removed thousands of homes", and if you look at the Inner Belt area today it does look like it could have been a victim of urban renewal:
While highways (93, the Central Artery, McGrath) and urban renewal (West End) ... |
1d267cab-47ca-4b41-9233-3f20068f4237 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pay-on-results personal growth: first success
New, part II: Began a pay-on-results coaching experiment, made $40,300 since July
Thanks to Kaj Sotala, Stag Lynn, and Ulisse Mini for reviewing. Thanks to Kaj Sotala, Brian Toomey, Alex Zhu, Damon Sasi, Anna Salamon, and CFAR for mentorship and financial support
Update:... |
45b15392-8cd9-4bcd-9e37-4bc7f4be850b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ethnic Tension And Meaningless Arguments
I.
Part of what bothers me – and apparently several others – about yesterday’s motte-and-bailey discussion is that here’s a fallacy – a pretty successful fallacy – that depends entirely on people not being entirely clear on what they’re arguing about. Somebody says God doesn’t... |
6f04915e-6ac4-4060-a50a-2c6d6688520e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2d ai-partners as a comprehensive motivation tool
Thesis:
1. Motivation, discipline, willpower, the ability to emotionally regulate enough to achieve your goals - whatever you want to call it - in practice there is a unique recipe for each person to get them "fully motivated and doing the work" to chase their dream... |
82fc4426-3cb9-4f41-aa90-714957cd8d56 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ask Not "How Are You Doing?"
Like the human body, English conversation retains certain vestigial features. Some of these are malignant, in that they impede lively discourse. Here I address the most common and damaging example I know of: the phrase, “How are you doing?”
This is a staple greeting. Throughout most of th... |
9b1575da-9af5-473e-81b9-18a304fff1bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Worries About AI Are Usually Complements Not Substitutes
A common claim is that concern about [X] ‘distracts’ from concern about [Y]. This is often used as an attack to cause people to discard [X] concerns, on pain of being enemies of [Y] concerns, as attention and effort are presumed to be zero-sum.
There are cases ... |
bf9595f4-6a45-49b8-8419-9f7565cd1926 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Podcast (+transcript): Nathan Barnard on how US financial regulation can inform AI governance
**Listen on:**
* [Google Podcasts](https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9hbmNob3IuZm0vcy9lNDJlYjllYy9wb2RjYXN0L3Jzcw/episode/YWI2ZTkzZGUtOTgyOC00MGQ2LWIyNmEtMmZmODBiZDlmNjRl?sa=X&ved=0CAUQkfYCahcKEwjooZL_w8yAAxUAAAAAHQ... |
bf094cb9-3cee-4c55-868b-1686d7b836d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Browser Engines
While there are many web browsers, they're almost all wrappers around the only three actively developed full engines. Those are:
* Gecko (source code): Developed by Mozilla for Firefox. While it previously powered several other browsers, at this point it looks like the Tor Browser and Waterfox are ... |
8cd51719-163f-489d-84cb-9c08fe176385 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Personal research update
Synopsis: The brain is a quantum computer and the self is a tensor factor in it - or at least, the truth lies more in that direction than in the classical direction - and we won't get Friendly AI right unless we get the ontology of consciousness right.
Followed by: Does functionalism imply du... |
7a30778d-a551-444c-b77f-5e6906d7b9a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unsolved ML Safety Problems
Cross-posted from the BAIR Blog and from my blog, Bounded Regret.
Along with researchers from Google Brain and OpenAI, we are releasing a paper on Unsolved Problems in ML Safety. Due to emerging safety challenges in ML, such as those introduced by recent large-scale models, we provide a ne... |
27d97a17-8fd1-45f5-a518-30d9d994ebf9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress Report 6: get the tool working
Prev: Progress Report 5
[Edit: Delayed due to catching a bad case of covid while travelling. Back at it now 2022-06-27]
After a bit of a hiatus while vacationing, I'm now back at it. After giving a presentation of my first 3 months of work to the Eleuther AI-interpretability r... |
603ef7a8-7d6b-4fa8-843f-d71f4802122d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sequence introduction: non-agent and multiagent models of mind
A typical paradigm by which people tend to think of themselves and others is as consequentialist agents: entities who can be usefully modeled as having beliefs and goals, who are then acting according to their beliefs to achieve their goals.
This is often... |
74127098-47fa-4fef-b239-af2ee9d92412 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Problems in AIXI Agent Foundations
Originally stand-alone, added to the AIXI agent foundations sequence, underlying research supported by the LTFF.
I believe that the theoretical foundations of the AIXI agent and variations are a surprisingly neglected and high leverage approach to agent foundations research. Th... |
c234ca7b-c84c-4f12-904c-f72aa8f94da3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Learning Reward Machines for Partially Observable Reinforcement Learning
Learning Reward Machines for Partially
Observable Reinforcement Learning
Rodrigo Toro Icarte
University of Toronto
Vector InstituteEthan Waldie
University of TorontoToryn Q. Klassen
University of Toronto
Vector Institute
Richard Valenzano
Elemen... |
97ab9c2b-25d2-4100-ba0a-3ab16ea8b3dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Making projects happen
Judging by the number of upvotes, Brandon Reinhart's analysis of SIAI's financial filings is valuable to quite a few people. Similar analysis' of Alcor and the Cryonics Institute would be quite valuable. There has been talk of more work on condensing LW content and placing it on the wiki. I'm su... |
1f9c7b14-e413-4cfa-ab04-d33cac1350a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The dreams of GPT-4
One of the more subtle ways to evaluate a mind is to ask it to write a short fiction story about itself.
The test is more robust than directly asking the mind to describe itself, allowing to see more of the entity behind the shallow mask.
----------------------------------------
I gave GPT-4 t... |
9550916e-6259-41d7-a3de-cc44cf1d53f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I Am Scared of Posting Negative Takes About Bing's AI
Writing this is taking a surprising amount of self-will.
I've noticed that I've become hesitant to publicly say anything negative about Bing's chatbot, or even to mention it by its "deadname" (as I've taken to calling it), Sydney.
Why is this?
I do not have acce... |
a82030b0-2f10-4e5b-bb2d-55a1fed15348 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Controlling Constant Programs
This post explains the sense in which UDT and its descendants can control programs with no parameters, without using explicit control variables.
Related to: Towards a New Decision Theory, What a reduction of "could" could look like.
Usually, a control problem is given by an explicit (fu... |
d479c47e-3325-4826-95c4-2ea99a90a5e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pessimism About Unknown Unknowns Inspires Conservatism
This [EDIT: final version, presentation] is a design for a conservative agent that I worked on with Marcus Hutter. Conservative agents are reluctant to make unprecedented things happen. The agent also approaches at least human-level reward acquisition.
The agent ... |
5c0baffc-02c1-4220-ab53-e499cb2b8664 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is the influence of money pervasive, even on LessWrong?
"You must be new around here."
Guilty as charged. But the financial model is usually one of my first areas of meta-interest when I start looking (or relooking) at a website. What are the motivations? "Follow the money," said the detective. But in the worst cases... |
82090766-2e07-4a36-8597-a3e10e555658 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Supernatural Math
**Related to:** [How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/09/how-to-convince.html)
This started as a reply to [this thread](/lw/fy/what_is_wrong_with_our_thoughts/con), but it would have been offtopic and I think the subject is important enough for a top-level post, as ... |
e86a069c-2f08-47b5-b6ff-1d6b9847e4ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Creating 'Making God': a Feature Documentary on risks from AGI
Please donate to our Manifund (as of 14.04.25 we have two more days of donation matching up to $10,000). Email me at connor.axiotes or DM me on Twitter for feedback and questions.
Project summary:
1. To create a cinematic, accessible, feature-length doc... |
dbc9a42f-d898-4213-af2b-9f81b83abbec | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | New roles on my team: come build Open Phil's technical AI safety program with me!
Open Phil [announced](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/bBefhAXpCFNswNr9m/open-philanthropy-is-hiring-for-multiple-roles-across-our) two weeks ago that we’re hiring for over 20 roles across our teams working on global catastrophi... |
1734dd10-42d2-4494-a756-3a00b4cb01d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a way to calculate the P(we are in a 2nd cold war)?
I could see a world that if these assumptions of technology growth are true:
- We have gotten significantly better in our understanding of MLs
- Openai with speech + written capabilities
- Openai now with vision capabilities and a deep understanding of the... |
b5ec29c7-f4f2-40ce-a9d3-3c1274f5544d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Secondary Stressors and Tactile Ambition
I'm constantly on the lookout for words and phrases that map well to reality.
If you study history and if you study language, even just a little bit, you wind up realizing that for most of history, there was often a distinct lack of words and phrases crucial to understand rea... |
e4114f2f-7052-4bcb-9ff3-868994924780 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wikipedia usage survey results
Contents
* Summary
* Background
* Previous surveys
* Motivation
* Survey questions for the first survey
* Survey questions for the second survey
* Survey questions for the third survey (Google Consumer Surveys)
* Results
* S1Q1: number of Wikipedia pages read per week
* S1Q... |
8f6c63f6-db70-4c64-b7a3-6d9518b0932a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Collapse Might Not Be Desirable
Epistemic Status: Wisdom gleaned from years of meditation.
There are many ways we could create societal collapse.
Creating an engineered pandemic, triggering a nuclear catastrophe, developing a computer virus to permanently crash the global economy etc.
Now you may be thinking about... |
3cee86e6-4fb8-4e63-a08d-0b7d79ccb6b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting AI Forecasting
TL;DR: This post examines how rapidly AI forecasting ability is improving by analyzing results from ForecastBench, Metaculus AI tournaments, and various prediction platforms. While AI forecasting is steadily improving, there remains significant uncertainty around the timeline for matching to... |
4f7310c4-e37d-4ca2-869f-df6c1496d233 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Vancouver Rationalists: Seasteading Talk (Arrrr) by Michael Keenan, October 2nd, 1300hrs
Discussion article for the meetup : Vancouver Rationalists: Seasteading Talk (Arrrr) by Michael Keenan
WHEN: 02 October 2011 01:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: Waves Coffee House, 100-900 Howe St. Vancouver, BC V6Z 2M4
Ave, Rati... |
9cf998da-afaa-428f-b0e3-c579440fc810 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Giving the AI definition a form suitable for the engineer
Introduction
------------
If you want to answer the question: ‘What is AI?’, the first thing to do would be to consider whom you are giving your answer to, and what is the purpose of your answer – whether your aim is to convince the reader that AI exists and... |
055882be-e133-4dc9-a91e-906b9e413fea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where is my Flying Car?
Book review: Where Is My Flying Car? A Memoir of Future Past, by J. Storrs Hall (aka Josh).
If you only read the first 3 chapters, you might imagine that this is the history of just one industry (or the mysterious lack of an industry).
But this book attributes the absence of that industry to ... |
15cd6a72-cf78-4ccf-bce2-4109905a7bdd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I'm in a really dark place right now, I think I need help.
Hi!
For a while now I've been having troubles with my life.
Today it got worse, likely I will feel better in a week, but problems related to a person I love and searching for the purpose of my life will not be solved, just ignored as I did for a couple of yea... |
57795277-c714-421e-bc12-7f2c687f33b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Self-Embedded Probabilistic Model
One possibly-confusing point from the Embedded Agents sequence: it’s actually not difficult to write down a self-embedded world model. Just as lazy data structures can represent infinite sequences in finite space, a lazily-evaluated probabilistic model can represent a world which is... |
85217e99-d116-4ce6-9aca-24c4edc3afa6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How would two superintelligent AIs interact, if they are unaligned with each other?
Hello,
As I read more from this forum and other areas about ethical AI and Decision Theory, I start to imagine what future scenario there could be if multiple AGIs are created simultaneously, by actors who are not coordinating with ea... |
b65d1cb8-8132-4eb1-86d4-0ea42e6d886a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hayekian Prediction Markets?
I think I basically get the idea behind prediction markets. People take their money seriously, so the opinions of people who are confident enough to bet real money on those opinions deserve to be taken seriously as well. That kid on the schoolyard who was always saying "wanna bet?" might h... |
ac6e2a25-8257-4260-b3c4-83369fd4b50e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Link Post > Blog Post
A few rationalist-adjacent friends have told they treat my newsletters as link posts, and largely ignore the content itself (thanks, guys). I get it, gonzo party journalism isn't everybody's cup of tea.
But most people love a good, long link post. So, I wanted to run an experiment.
I counted,... |
343ae127-5fa5-4101-847f-968eee0684a3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Bayesian view of scientific virtues
A number of scientific virtues are explained intuitively by Bayes' rule, including:
- __Falsifiability:__ A good scientist should say what they do *not* expect to see if a theory is true.
- __Boldness:__ A good theory makes bold experimental predictions (that we wouldn't otherwise ... |
0675d4c7-216f-4af0-8e2d-0d1bb34299be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing Duncan Sabien as the keynote speaker for the 2022 LessWrong Community Weekend August 26-29!
We will start taking applications on May 1, with rolling responses until all of the spots are filled. At that time an announcement will be made with all additional details.
For four days at the end of August, aspiri... |
111c6df2-c1a7-4c0b-95da-96cb0f23cf8a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow LW experimental group meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow LW experimental group meetup
WHEN: 25 September 2015 07:20:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Москва, ул. Дубининская, 20
Welcome to the next experimental group (former "lecture centre") meetup!
Our plan:
* A talk about Sunk Cost Fallacy.
... |
0b497082-3526-4518-a0de-b60cc5347e91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Attempted Telekinesis
Related to: Compartmentalization in epistemic and instrumental rationality; That other kind of status.
Summary: I’d like to share some techniques that made a large difference for me, and for several other folks I shared them with. They are techniques for reducing stress, social shame, and cert... |
c372b0cd-f94d-4926-8717-0131aea8ebc2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Let's Read: an essay on AI Theology
Follow me as I read through an essay on AI Theology and give my comments. Good Shepherds (O’Gieblyn, 2019)
> It’s not a human move,” said one former champion. “I’ve never seen a human play this move.” Even AlphaGo’s creator could not explain the algorithm’s choice. But it proved de... |
46049725-58e7-4c33-8ae4-efd705e0b656 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A proposed system for ideas jumpstart
What do you need to come up with an idea for an interdisciplinary project? Maybe deep expertise in all the relevant disciplines? No - for just the initial idea, you shouldn’t need this level of knowledge. For example, if you have a very general knowledge of what machine learning o... |
6cc4f11f-fa65-4984-8cf5-48d518d67ac8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The animals and humans analogy for AI risk
If past generations of animals stopped humans from evolving to become as intelligent as they are now, or ensured that humans valued the welfare and rights of animals, they could have prevented widespread factory farming, deforestation and climate change which causes severe an... |
9088cee7-1dfb-4ff3-a87f-55676d1cc80f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow Meetup: Unusual as usual
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow Meetup: Unusual as usual
WHEN: 28 September 2014 02:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Russia, Moscow, ulitsa L'va Tolstogo 16
Here's our plan:
* "Calibration with topics" excercise.
* A talk about consequences of a belief.
* A talk about h... |
30c91966-c467-4d3a-8b10-01e093829e1d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Hormone-disrupting plastics and reproductive health
See also
Interview with the author
What's the evidence on falling testosterone and sperm counts
A skeptical take
Another skeptical take by our very own Tom Chivers |
07239ff4-d586-4533-8c49-3144ae39a70f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Memorizing weak examples can elicit strong behavior out of password-locked models
We’ve recently done some research looking into sandbagging: examining when models can succeed at intentionally producing low-quality outputs despite attempts at fine-tuning them to perform well. One reason why sandbagging could be concer... |
72b0d632-c45c-4dda-b064-bb24e87b4339 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are LessWrong's thoughts on Venkatesh Rao, Gregory Rader, and Daniel Lemire?
Venkatesh Rao (who is amazing because he literally constantly challenges our definitions of everything):
http://www.quora.com/Venkatesh-Rao/Quora-Portfolio-Year-1
http://www.quora.com/Venkatesh-Rao
http://www.ribbonfarm.com/be-slightl... |
6adc2c9d-a8d9-47b2-972b-f3adec63fbe2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Circumventing interpretability: How to defeat mind-readers
,
(Post now available as a pdf: https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.11415 )
TL;DR: Unaligned AI will have a convergent instrumental incentive to make its thoughts difficult for us to interpret. In this article, I discuss many ways that a capable AI might circumvent s... |
04a479ca-726e-4645-b23a-93d739ed545d | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "The Brain Preservation Foundation’s Small Mammalian Brain Prize has been won with fantastic preservation of a whole rabbit brain using a new fixative+slow-vitrification process. BPF announcement (21CM’s announcement)
evaluation The process was published as “Aldehyde-stabilized cryopreservation”, McIntyre & Fahy 2015 (... |
a5357f27-e1f6-492d-b66b-bbc5a159418e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A crisis for online communication: bots and bot users will overrun the Internet?
The endgame for humanity's AI adventure still looks to me, to be what happens upon the arrival of comprehensively superhuman artificial intelligence.
However, the rise of large language models, and the availability of ChatGPT in partic... |
887b025f-0bbe-466d-98b5-c61f65bf744b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup Tip: Board Games
Summary
Many meetups play board games or card games. Hanging out playing games can be a fun way to spend time together, and organizing a board game meetup is unusually easy since the games do most of the heavy lifting. Some games are better suited to this purpose than others; I believe the best... |
b2a00f88-6d52-46bc-be96-95dae75669aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Naive Hypotheses on AI Alignment
Apparently doominess works for my brain, cause Eliezer Yudkowsky’s AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities convinced me to look in to AI safety. Either I’d find out he’s wrong, and there is no problem. Or he’s right, and I need to reevaluate my life priorities.
After a month of sporadic rea... |
b816a99d-2b65-4da7-9020-4ce59ff8b03b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DOGE Might Be Worth Influencing
TL;DR DOGE is central to initiatives important to senior decision makers in the US government. There are legitimate concerns about their longevity of influence, politicised nature, and independence from existing agendas. However, their proximity to decision-makers and growing administra... |
897ffef5-a688-468e-bc87-3455c06a6d3e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Telephone Theorem: Information At A Distance Is Mediated By Deterministic Constraints
You know the game of Telephone? That one where a bunch of people line up, and the first person whispers some message in the second person’s ear, then the second person whispers it to the third, and so on down the line, and then a... |
eeaa6f35-7d2b-4d9e-a924-dd7ea20acbeb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Johann Schumann on high-assurance systems
[Dr. Johann Schumann](http://ti.arc.nasa.gov/profile/schumann/) is a member of the [Robust Software Engineering Group RSE](http://ti.arc.nasa.gov/tech/rse/) at [NASA Ames](http://w... |
c60b1762-34fb-4aff-a039-ae4a49fd8ff4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI Safety - 7 months of discussion in 17 minutes
In August 2022, I started making summaries of the top EA and LW forum posts each week. This post collates together the key trends I’ve seen in AI Safety discussions since then. Note a lot of good work is happening outside what's posted on these forums too! This post doe... |
c9f4e75f-e6ff-4176-becb-6f25d695dc2c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Oct. 5 - Oct. 11, 2015
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately ... |
8a53197c-b6a7-4345-87dc-4eb5a4f9229b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Crosspost] Deep Dive: The Coming Technological Singularity - How to survive in a Post-human Era
Crossposted from my Substack: Part One and Part Two
> “The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the ris... |
725e01cf-f2d6-4d77-9f64-f54633714f44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : DC Meetup: Goals spreadsheet, political advocacy as effective altruism, scary rationalist stories
Discussion article for the meetup : DC Meetup: Goals spreadsheet, political advocacy as effective altruism, scary rationalist stories
WHEN: 10 November 2013 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, ... |
91644fbf-d1d6-41f3-8462-182a51fcd6c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Domestic Production vs International Wealth Creation
First post here but have been in and around the scene for some time. The first rationalist meetup I went to was in 2019 in SF. Glad to be here. I wanted to make my first post something short and sweet that I've been thinking about for some time and would love input ... |
702e613e-db82-47f0-959b-3ff35d744124 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Botworld: a cellular automaton for studying self-modifying agents embedded in their environment
On April 1, I started working full-time for MIRI. In the weeks prior, while I was winding down my job and packing up my things, Benja and I built Botworld, a cellular automaton that we've been using to help us study self-mo... |
01b53730-67ec-4d43-8d3a-9de4879bbe58 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conclusion of the Replacing Guilt series
Today marks the end of my series on replacing guilt (table of contents).
I began the series by discussing the "restless guilt," that people feel when some part of them thinks they aren't doing what's important. I argued that it's possible to care about things outside yourself,... |
252c2660-1ec2-46db-9c59-955fc8e66bf6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The evaluation function of an AI is not its aim
I think this is a relatively straightforward point, but it's one that I think has definitely led to confused thinking on my part about AI alignment, and presumably on others. After writing this post Ruby pointed out there's an [entire sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/... |
9741eea3-c19a-403a-b637-696c1b69952c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agisf | AGI Safety Fund | Visualizing the deep learning revolution
[](/@richardcngo?source=post_page-----722098eb9c5--------------------------------)Listen
Share
The field of AI has undergone a revolution over the last decade, driven by the success of deep lea... |
4c83865a-b801-463b-a7ad-40c2d5296399 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Principles of Agile Rationalism
We follow these principles:
Our highest priority is to seek cruxes
through early and continuous delivery
of unfiltered evidence.
Welcome changing beliefs, even late in
writing. Agile rationality updates beliefs for
our culture's collective intelligence.
Deliver useful ideas frequentl... |
c75029f8-a938-4219-8339-9589acf9f9c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety Action Plan - A report commissioned by the US State Department
This morning, Gladstone AI published a report they made that was commissioned by the US State Department. The report not only acknowledges catastrophic risks from AI, but also includes a very ambitious set of proposals designed for the US to miti... |
77e88510-b491-4715-8384-ae20b8ddf737 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Cognitive biases about violence as a negotiating tactic
Max Abrahms, "The Credibility Paradox: Violence as a Double-Edged Sword in International Politics," International Studies Quarterly 2013.
> Abstract: Implicit in the rationalist literature on bargaining over the last half-century is the political utility ... |
b149378d-9d4c-431c-9271-134331fd0c5d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Factorio, Accelerando, Empathizing with Empires and Moderate Takeoffs
I started planning this post before [Cousin It's post on a similar subject](https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/98QAWTRyDnHMfr6SL/biological-humans-and-the-rising-tide-of-ai). This is a bit of a more poetic take on moderate, peaceful AI takeoffs.
Spo... |
a5461958-c187-4be7-9b2c-585dc4be56dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Alignment [Progress] this Week (11/05/2023)
The biggest news of this week is probably the two new AI Alignment Initiatives.
Otherwise, this was a relatively quiet week for AI Alignment breakthroughs.
So here are our
AI Alignment Breakthroughs this Week
This week there were breakthroughs in the areas of:
Mec... |
6020b99b-de4e-4bc7-a353-9b1dd3c6cde4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Pascal’s Muggle Pays
Reply To (Eliezer Yudkowsky): [Pascal’s Muggle Infinitesimal Priors and Strong Evidence](http://lesswrong.com/lw/h8k/pascals_muggle_infinitesimal_priors_and_strong/)
Inspired to Finally Write This By (Lesser Wrong): [Against the Linear Utility Hypothesis and the Leverage Penalty](https://www.less... |
a7835f4e-5d2c-42d5-8027-e1c60a18832f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AISC 2024 - Project Summaries
Apply to AI Safety Camp 2024 by 1st December 2023. All mistakes here are my own.
Below are some summaries for each project proposal, listed in order of how they appear on the website. These are edited by me, and most have not yet been reviewed by the project leads. I think having a list ... |
f814a629-50b6-4495-a37e-b4cffbb5f2c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Truth seeking is motivated cognition
Seeking the truth is a form of motivated cognition. Put another way, truth is a teleological concept. If that's intuitive you can stop reading this post. Otherwise, press on.
What is truth? Like, for real, actually, please define it. Try this for yourself. Here's some spoiler spac... |
f299591f-5fc7-4ecc-88a3-8e0e32afd181 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | How unlikely is a doomsday catastrophe?
I Introduction
---------------
As if we humans did not have enough to worry about, scientists have recently highlighted catastrophic scenarios that
could destroy not only our civilization, but perhaps even our planet or our entire observable universe.
For instance, fears that... |
430d87db-2623-49b7-a070-b13561c6c4c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less costly signaling
|
9fd9267c-7ec2-4c14-b6c9-c23af2351b0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conceptual Rounding Errors
Epistemic status: Reasonably confident in the basic mechanism.
Have you noticed that you keep encountering the same ideas over and over? You read another post, and someone helpfully points out it's just old Paul's idea again. Or Eliezer's idea. Not much progress here, move along.
Or perhap... |
0e9a502e-55db-4162-aa3b-c38978cc0af8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Less Wrong! (5th thread, March 2013)
If you've recently joined the Less Wrong community, please leave a comment here and introduce yourself. We'd love to know who you are, what you're doing, what you value, how you came to identify as a rationalist or how you found us. You can skip right to that if you like... |
43bd5072-57b6-47ce-bb73-41f8ede1da67 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Introducing the ML Safety Scholars Program
Program Overview
----------------
The Machine Learning Safety Scholars program is a paid, 9-week summer program designed to help undergraduate students gain skills in machine learning with the aim of using those skills for empirical AI safety research in the future. Apply fo... |
826a6297-739c-403f-8501-0428d8392648 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My current take on Internal Family Systems “parts”
I was recently asked how literal/metaphorical I consider the Internal Family Systems model of your mind being divided into “parts” that are kinda like subpersonalities.
The long answer would be my whole sequence on the topic, but that’s pretty long and also my exact ... |
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