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3e02269a-97b1-4896-92d6-5a9caa4ea9f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Self-Control
This post examines the virtue of self-control. I mostly summarize what others have learned about this virtue, rather than expressing my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my inclinations. I wrote this not as an expert, but as... |
cf38b14d-fb24-4fa4-9544-2d8ba7565b64 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intention-to-Treat (Re: How harmful is music, really?)
I have long wanted to write about intention-to-treat because it's such a neat idea, and the recent article How harmful is music, really? spurred me to finally do it.
----------------------------------------
The reported results were
DayMean moodMusic0.29No musi... |
7bbbc0fb-2272-4f27-bee0-c445cc8d1fc0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Conceptual-Linguistic Superintelligence
Informatica 41 (2017 ) 429–439 429
Conceptual -Linguistic Superintelligence
David J. Jil k
eCortex, Inc. , 9035 Wadsworth Pkwy, Suite 2275, Westminster, CO 80021 -8675 , UK
E-mail: dave@jilk.com
Keywords: artificial intelligence, superintelligence, intelligence exp... |
8c33a1fb-d45e-4bf7-a226-227abc50f4e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Double-Dipping in Dunning--Kruger
Originally posted at sandymaguire.me.
> I have to get you to drop modesty and say to yourself, "Yes, I would like to do first-class work." Our society frowns on people who set out to do really good work. You're not supposed to; luck is supposed to descend on you and you do great thin... |
3dbf0c25-e808-4f9f-b03a-42174bd1d95b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Three reasons to cooperate
In this post I’ll discuss three reasons to cooperate in a truly one-shot prisoner’s dilemma:
* Kindness: You care about the other player.
* Correlation. Your decision is correlated with the other player’s decision.
* Reciprocity. Your decision is correlated with the other player’s belief... |
acd40667-dd38-4ccb-a9ec-ee1ab632047f | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3787
A putative new idea for AI control; index here . Note : This is a simpler version of a previous idea. Corrigibility through indifference has a few problems. One of them is that the AI is indifferent between the world in which humans change its utility to v , and world in which humans try to change its uti... |
a6714740-eb48-4515-a94c-87b7fde1d84a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When should we worry about AI power-seeking?
(Audio version here (read by the author), or search for "Joe Carlsmith Audio" on your podcast app.
This is the second essay in a series that I’m calling “How do we solve the alignment problem?”.[1]I’m hoping that the individual essays can be read fairly well on their own, ... |
e3476aa2-848d-4063-af65-3adf0e51801a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A closer look at chess scalings (into the past)
Introduction
I had explored measuring AI or hardware overhang in August 2020 using chess. Hardware overhang is when sufficient compute is available, but the algorithms are suboptimal. I examined the strongest chess engine of 2020, Stockfish 8, performing at 3,400 ELO un... |
742ced26-95d4-4937-a4cb-7cd5b1b00bea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Eight Strategies for Tackling the Hard Part of the Alignment Problem
Thanks to Michael Ripa for feedback.
TL;DR
* There are two types of problems that AI systems can have: problems that we can observe during development and problems that we can’t. The hardest part of the alignment problem involves problems we can’... |
e85baee6-85f5-4d4e-b5aa-2f2ed28071e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Getting Unstuck on Counterfactuals
I've previously argued that counterfactuals only make sense from within a counterfactual perspective[1]. The problem then was that I didn't exactly know how to imply this insight because I had no idea how to navigate a circular epistemology. I concluded a) I should probably delve int... |
ee2df152-f792-43bc-afd1-24e1f1bfff99 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fundamental Uncertainty: Chapter 4 - Why don't we do what we think we should?
N.B. This is a chapter in a book about truth and knowledge. It is the first draft. I have since revised it. You can find the most up-to-date info/version on the book's website.
If you're like me, you've probably experienced the following sc... |
99556d6b-bde5-41f0-9898-705d072d51ec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The barriers to the task
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/the-barriers-to-the-task/
----------------------------------------
For about two months now I have been putting in effort to run in the mornings. To make this happen, I had to take away all the barriers to me wanting to do that. There were plenty of th... |
69c15908-3d57-40cf-a74d-dd4f8671a4bb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Unit (ring theory)
An element $x$ of a non-trivial [ring](https://arbital.com/p/3gq)%%note:That is, a ring in which $0 \not = 1$; equivalently, a ring with more than one element.%% is known as a **unit** if it has a multiplicative inverse: that is, if there is $y$ such that $xy = 1$.
(We specified that the ring be non... |
894ff597-0be6-472c-84c1-3a2aea16f311 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anders, wine and enhancements
Glass of wine in hand, Anders Sandberg discusses the future of cognitive enhancers. |
94321411-d0a7-41da-95ce-876af742b60d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In defense of the outside view
I think some of our recent arguments against applying the outside view are wrong.
1. In response to taw's post, Eliezer paints the outside view argument against the Singularity thus:
> ...because experiments show that people could do better at predicting how long it will take them to d... |
17de59fa-f07b-4f77-bffc-d3a9fb255e77 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Compute governance: Verifying AI chip location
TL;DR: In this post I discuss a recently proposed on-chip compute governance mechanism, a delay based location verification mechanism. Then I demonstrate feasibility and applicability of the mechanism through a few exercises and identify a potential issue with frequent... |
3e060e7f-1fe3-495d-b8f3-3cec9d5316ab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is cognitive load a factor in community decline?
This is speculation; I had the thought and then ran in to trouble disentangling the question I am trying to answer from other research on a different question, and also the sources I know about are not conveniently available to me. Ideally I can either get a swift negat... |
a0d31ac6-cfdf-4a6a-b781-551379685f7f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing Rational Animations
Crossposted to the EA Forum
Hello, everyone
In February, my girlfriend and I started Rational Animations, a YouTube channel with the long-term mission of producing high-quality animated videos about rationality and Effective Altruism. The aim is to spread these ideas to a broader audi... |
35e15dba-407b-461f-8bcd-373287818e38 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Media discussion of 2016 ESPAI
The [2016 Expert Survey on Progress in AI](http://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/) was discussed in at least 20 media outlets, popular blogs, and industry-specific sites that we know of. Most of them were summaries of the survey findings. Commonly emphasized details i... |
7b518fb9-e6a2-4dbc-a2fe-505b0a7346a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bounded versions of Gödel's and Löb's theorems
While writing up decision theory results, I had to work out bounded versions of Gödel's second incompleteness theorem and Löb's theorem. Posting the tentative proofs here to let people find any major errors before adding formality. Any comments are welcome!
Bounded Gödel... |
42da580f-08bf-451d-ba15-f1d9074697a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Warsaw December Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Warsaw December Meetup
WHEN: 03 December 2014 06:30:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Warsaw
In Cafe Niespodzianka, Marszałkowska 7, Śródmieście, Warszawa, Poland.
Join our Facebook group for details: https://www.facebook.com/groups/lwwarsaw/
Discussion artic... |
3e4de199-b0b4-4e34-be8f-ee5a26276dc9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA Infrastructure Fund's Plan to Focus on Principles-First EA
Edit 2024/01/02: People who like this new vision may want to consider donating to EAIF!
Now until the end of January is an unusually good time to donate, as it allows you to take advantage of 2:1 Open Phil matching ($2 from them for $1 from you)[1]. My be... |
69ac0d7b-358a-49be-85ee-f468d73856e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If your solution doesn't work, make it work
Consider the following problem:
> There are an unspecified but finite number of chips on a table. Each chip is one of three colors: white, black or red. Define a "move" to be the act of replacing two chips of different colors with one chip of the third color. Prove that if ... |
1ad398ce-f84b-460d-a58e-ec240ff8f883 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Information Hazards
Nick Bostrom recently posted the article "Information Hazards", which is about the myriad of ways in which information can harm us.
You can read it at his website: Direct PDF Link |
450df68c-1390-435b-8b20-5df4e3c56c5f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrong mentoring thread
I just had a 17-year-old Less Wronger e-mail me for advice regarding the Thiel Fellowship after reading my application essay from last year when I was 19. We had a long instant message conversation where I gave him a lot of advice which he seemed to find highly useful (my biggest piece of a... |
09eda5b1-df57-4ebd-ac0e-9148291ae540 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI
None |
4ca3d467-19fe-4acc-9d41-86d94182da75 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Moral Copernican Principle
You ever see people arguing about whether some facet of another culture is good or bad, when suddenly one of them declares the moral high ground can't exist because obviously moral relativity is true? Well that line of reasoning is nonsense, but I don't think people know how to respond t... |
2e1d43d1-1652-41d8-adcd-7657929e6318 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Why I Write" by George Orwell (1946)
People have been posting great essays so that they're "fed through the standard LessWrong algorithm." This essay is in the public domain in the UK but not the US.
----------------------------------------
From a very early age, perhaps the age of five or six, I knew that when I g... |
870e2d94-fbd7-446a-97da-0645d030dcbd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Riffing on Machines of Loving Grace
I wrote a post thinking through what sorts of impacts "geniuses in a datacenter" might have on biology in the near-ish term.
Disclaimer: it's not focused on alignment, even though I recognize alignment is very important, and tacitly assumes no intelligence explosion. It's obviousl... |
df5dceee-966e-486b-8d75-18264f177125 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We Want MoR (HPMOR Discussion Podcast) Completes Book One
The We Want MoR podcast, a chapter by chapter read-through and discussion of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality by a Rationalist and a newbie, has just finished up Book One (Ch. 1-21) of HPMOR. (Apple Podcasts link.)
Less Wrong used to be a major locu... |
1b3076f2-9105-4aba-9758-c88effaba08a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, June 16-30, 2013
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here. |
fd92fc1d-fbf9-4035-b77d-12ffb28f931d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Safely and usefully spectating on AIs optimizing over toy worlds
Consider an AI that is trying to achieve a certain result in a toy world running on a computer. Compare two models of what the AI is and what it's trying to do: first, you could say the AI is a physical program on a computer, which is trying to cause the... |
8556f164-b9d7-4eaf-8ab4-9c6caa5b0d71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA Hangout Prisoners' Dilemma
I ran the following experiment on Petrov’s day on the EA Hangouts Facebook page:
> Hey everyone, it's Petrov day and I wanted to run a little scenario.
>
> I'm going to donate $100 each to AMF and MIRI. Unless someone comments with "nuke MIRI" or "nuke AMF". In that case, I'll give peop... |
7d3c2452-a358-4ef6-9ff2-a32f64861eab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Solstice 2015: What Memes May Come (Part II - Atheism, Rationality and Death)
Winter is coming, and so is Solstice season. There'll be large rationality-centric-or-adjaecent events in NYC, the Bay Area, and Seattle(and possibly other places - if you're interested in running a Solstice event or learning what that invol... |
dcde84c5-696f-46b7-adf5-d8a0486c20b3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | MIRI’s Strategy for 2013
This post is not a detailed strategic plan. For now, I just want to provide an update on **what MIRI is doing in 2013 and why**.
Our mission remains the same. The creation of smarter-than-human intelligence [will likely be](https://intelligence.org/files/IE-EI.pdf) the most significant event... |
ca0f8224-9b5f-4f34-b77d-8a5fd56b7748 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Preventing Side-effects in Gridworlds
Can we ensure that artificial agents behave safely? Well, start at the bottom: We have not even solved the problem in the concrete 2D, [fully-observable](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perfect\_information), finite case. Call this the “gridworld” case, following Sutton and Barto [(... |
9cd16cb4-6665-4626-a7f3-1eccaa113adc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Alignment Problems
*Epistemic status: A core idea I've seen hinted at in many places, here presented and motivated explicitly.*
*This was produced during SERI MATS 3.0. Thanks to Vivek Hebbar for related discussion.*
There has recently been pushback on the inner/outer alignment conceptualization: it's [confused]... |
2764666e-a4e4-40a6-a021-b3b3819bdd40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | No one knows what Peano arithmetic doesn't know
WARNING: this post requires some knowledge of mathematical logic and computability theory.
I was just talking with Wei Dai and something came up that seems at once obvious and counterintuitive. Though if the argument is correct, I guess it will be old news to about 50% ... |
bf1b8669-4da0-4a6a-a4be-87fa43c8d2c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Poll: Which variables are most strategically relevant?
Which variables are most important for predicting and influencing how AI goes?
Here are some examples:
* Timelines: “When will crazy AI stuff start to happen?”
* Alignment tax: “How much more difficult will it be to create an aligned AI vs an unaligned AI when... |
3220aee6-cbbe-4e1f-9f9b-629013e2cf80 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Value Definition Problem
How to understand non-technical proposals
This post grew out of conversations at EA Hotel, Blackpool about how to think about the various proposals for ‘solving’ AI Alignment like CEV, iterated amplification and distillation or ambitious value learning. Many of these proposals seemed t... |
96c277bc-fb9f-467c-b75c-42b8da8a171a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Schelling game evaluations for AI control
Playing Schelling games is a key dangerous capability for schemers: it’s much harder to control AIs that are very capable at Schelling coordination. In this post, I discuss the threat model and describe concrete projects for empirical work.
Suppose you wish to control mode... |
d5463fbc-bc9c-499d-a0e4-515f534c8cb7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How does one authenticate with the lesswrong API?
Hello friends, I am working on some scripts to copy content from a google doc into a lesswrong post. I have found the graphql API and I see there is an Authorization header being sent with an auth token. How can I authenticate with the API and acquire a token? |
f82ed045-9205-46a7-974e-c36f124cfb19 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | College Selection Advice
I, and a lot of other people my age, are currently facing a pretty big life decision -- where to go to college. Since this is probably going to have a pretty big impact on my life, I'd like to get some more information on this.
Seeing as a lot of people here have probably made this choice alr... |
c4fac583-30bf-4058-9db7-631652184f43 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | 2024 S-risk Intro Fellowship
The Center on Long-Term Risk (CLR) will be running its second-ever intro fellowship on risks of astronomical suffering ([s-risks](https://longtermrisk.org/beginners-guide-to-reducing-s-risks/)), intended for effective altruists to learn more about which s-risks we consider most important a... |
ffc5103d-481e-4aca-8faa-71e82376adec | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | 2017-18 New Year review
#### 2017 progress
Research/career:
* Coauthored [RL with reward corruption paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08417) and presented the results at the U Toronto CS department, [Workshop on Reliable AI](http://www.video.ethz.ch/events/2017/artificial/e94f41a7-1a7e-4005-8b3c-bd31f6183dc7.html)... |
08699ec0-ab1f-4638-a004-f6ad95773a6a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Directing, vs. limiting, vs. opposing
'Directing' versus 'limiting' versus 'opposing' is a proposed conceptual distinction between 3 ways of getting [good](https://arbital.com/p/3d9) outcomes and avoiding [bad](https://arbital.com/p/450) outcomes, when running a [sufficiently advanced Artificial Intelligence](https://... |
e0e7d537-2d3b-4a26-bd43-03d486dff82d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A newcomer’s guide to the technical AI safety field
*This post was written during*[*Refine*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5uiQkyKdejX3aEHLM/how-to-diversify-conceptual-alignment-the-model-behind)*. Thanks to Jonathan Low, Linda Linsefors, Koen Holtman, Aaron Scher, and Nicholas Kees Dupuis for helpful discussion an... |
e437f4f8-34d8-4421-ab1f-07ae152dfd46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Bands: Leading Rhythm
I feel like there's a lot of unrealized potential in open bands. A typical contra dance band has 2-4 musicians while an open band might have twenty. This could be a big opportunity for sounds and textures that aren't practical with a small band, but instead you tend to just get a fuller but ... |
143343f7-5ec3-4d6b-92c2-1e15bc330482 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some advice on independent research
I have been doing independent research in addition to my Ph.D. for roughly a year now. For the next 6 months, I’ll take a break from my Ph.D. and plan to do AI safety research full-time. I had chats with many people about independent research in the past, e.g. on EAGs or because 80K... |
e1930bb8-3652-46c3-ae72-eba5ef7647e5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Xtranormal Intelligence Explosion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghIj1mYTef4 |
1d246003-7f1f-406f-9df2-b454150be932 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Boston area meetup April 18
I propose a Less Wrong meetup on Sunday, April 18, 4pm at the Clear Conscience Cafe at 581 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA, near the Central Square T station. Please comment if you plan to attend, or have questions or ideas. Time and place are flexible if anyone has a conflict.
There we... |
3cb324f5-3211-4262-8302-76780f09f7c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Levels of Power
Intended for Levels 0-1.9 Related to: Playing Video Games In Shuffle Mode
Taking the advice of talisman, I thought it would be useful to compile a list of levels of general rationalist skill. I think these levels loosely correllate to how effective one is as a rationalist, but they are not the same t... |
2a6c2b70-bb1f-4a04-a4e4-b0a413a57899 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Normies Are in Hell Too
Normies Are in Hell Too
-----------------------
weird people like me often like to think we're the oppressed class; we're the ones for whom institutions don't work, expectations aren't met, we are at a constant disadvantage of having to explain our weird situations to others, etc.
we have s... |
5d856d24-2cad-42ad-a2e0-4de36bc82386 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Funding Case: AI Safety Camp 11
This is a linkpost to our funding case on Manifund.
Project summary
AI Safety Camp has a seven-year track record of enabling participants to try their fit, find careers and start new orgs in AI Safety. We host up-and-coming researchers outside the Bay Area and London hubs.
If thi... |
f26743bd-749f-44a2-9419-3267b59112fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why don't we just get rid of all the bioethicists?
I've had a few vague answers before, but as I was considering how no one was allowed to do human challenge trials during COVID, I thought I'd ask:
Can anyone come up with an example where a bioethicist actually improved the world?
I'm looking for specific cases, not... |
08535dbe-f5c5-4317-9e2f-dcfa5ffd51b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Neural program synthesis is a dangerous technology
Crossposted from my Medium blog
Today’s computer viruses can copy themselves between computers, but they can’t mutate. That might change very soon, leading to a serious crisis.
Research on program synthesis is proceeding quickly, using neural reinforcement learning.... |
f998e057-7128-4c43-bc37-dde90c233dd2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | That Crisis thing seems pretty useful
Since there's been much questioning of late over "What good is advanced rationality in the real world?", I'd like to remind everyone that it isn't all about post-doctoral-level reductionism.
In particular, as a technique that seems like it ought to be useful in the real world, I ... |
d8e26c92-9d9e-49a5-90d8-dd843357c50c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Subjunctive Tenses Unnecessary for Rationalists?
Do any Spanish speaking rationalists use subjunctive tenses? I've had the sense for a while that it's necessary for when you're expressing unfocused uncertainty or a strong emotional attachment to a belief or opinion, but that most of the time you can get by just fine w... |
42a953f7-b747-4249-ab0b-660eb07fa520 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Anti-ageing compound set for human trials
This seems like an advance in understanding, even if it doesn't lead directly to a treatment.
News stories:
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/dec/20/anti-ageing-human-trials?CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-25445748
Abstract of the paper... |
d622f26c-a030-4354-b885-4bedd0405af1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should I buy roofies from the darknet?
Crossposted from Telescopic Turnip.
As I am writing, there is a tiny angel-version of myself suspended in mid-air over my left shoulder. His comforting voice is telling me to live a normal life and pursue happiness in normal hobbies like play-dough, warhammer or ironing. Floatin... |
8c7bfb84-1e35-4ff1-a556-f497558d5987 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrong Product & Service Recommendations
I have often benefited from recommendations for Things I Didn't Know I Wanted.
Given that Less Wrong is a community of unusually intelligent, critical, and self-improvement-focused people, I suspect we can generate a pretty helpful thread of product recommendations — perha... |
2460d0d5-e8e4-4346-8422-56f3dcc9f909 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Case for Superhuman Governance, using AI
I believe that:
1. AI-enhanced organization governance could be a potentially huge win in the next few decades.
2. AI-enhanced governance could allow organizations to reach superhuman standards, like having an expected "99.99" reliability rate of not being corrupt or not t... |
bb350de3-7b79-42d0-a0f5-590b0bb2c4ac | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | A stochastically verifiable autonomous control architecture with reasoning
1 Introduction
---------------
Autonomous control is an area within control sciences that emerged by upgrading classical *feedback control* by decision making on what control references to use. The purpose of feedback control is to regulate ... |
6c56751c-a891-44eb-81d8-42b3ee2102aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hammertime Day 1: Bug Hunt
Rationality is systematized winning.
In Hammers and Nails, I suggested that rationalists need to be more systematic in the practice of our craft. In this post, I will use the word Hammer for a single technique well-practiced and broadly applied.
Hammertime is a 30-day instrumental rational... |
f1e8ab1b-884d-40c3-ab16-93b018e82b24 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AISN#52: An Expert Virology Benchmark
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
In this edition: AI now outperforms human experts in specialized virology knowledge in a new benchmark; A new report explores the risk o... |
536a2ed8-fe4f-4972-bccb-7e9b553d62f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Neuroeconomics course on coursera started just this week
Introduction to Neuroeconomics: how the brain makes decisions
Info from the link:
> About the Course
> Economics, psychology, and neuroscience are converging today into a unified discipline of Neuroeconomics with the ultimate aim of providing a single,... |
6e41b010-bf7a-4bf2-a1e3-95021357bb40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Qualities that alignment mentors value in junior researchers
This work was performed as a contractor for SERI MATS, but the views expressed are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organization.
I recently conducted interviews with 7 current/former SERI MATS mentors. One of my goals was to understa... |
a64fe9dd-9fc3-4414-a57a-d72cf8f4d1e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tour Retrospective February 2024
Last week Kingfisher went on tour, driving down to DC and back. It was a pretty good time!
We planned the tour for the kids February vacation in case they wanted to come, and Lily decided to join us. Alex Deis-Lauby was calling, and she came with us as well. Getting the four of us, a ... |
1f1457c2-f9ca-45a0-adf9-700c21eacebb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress links and tweets, 2022-05-30
Trying a new experiment: a blog-post digest of my most relevant Twitter content. Let me know any feedback!
Links
* Our World in Data is looking for a Head of Product & Design
* Dan Elton is hosting a “Boston area progress studies roundtable discussion”
* “The FDA has a long, ... |
98f6b812-29f3-4853-93fe-69e07571a169 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A Safer Oracle Setup?
**Edit: I no longer think this post deserves attention.**
**Edit: Invoking a black-box agent is probably [a very bad idea](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DNKTmmNZr5M2uCZLz/beware-of-black-boxes-in-ai-alignment-research) unless there’s a consensus in the AI safety community it should be done.**
... |
addd86cb-216d-4453-8004-59dbe1b6514b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Absorbing Your Friends' Powers
Motivation
> Richard Hamming was a mathematician who worked at Bell Labs during the 1940s-1970s. He had a habit of sitting down with scientists in other fields and asking them “What are the important problems of your field?” After they explained their field's most important open problem,... |
d99e7f4f-3794-414d-b790-ad67e675aaea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Call for Special Issue on Superintelligence - Informatica
|
e9f38039-8d0f-47f9-9aa2-d19b7a76af03 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3495
EDIT : This post has been superceeded by all these four posts . A few weeks ago, I had a conversation with Paul Christiano about my counterfactual Oracle design . We didn't get as far as criticising the method. Paul's question is far more fundamental - was my design even necessary? Forwards or backwards l... |
be4d05ba-cc2d-477a-a526-390fae00b2b5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Knowledge, manipulation, and free will
Thanks to Rebecca Gorman for co-developing this idea
On the 26th of September 1983, [Stanislav Petrov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov) observed the early warning satellites reporting the launch of five nuclear missiles towards the Soviet Union. He decided to dis... |
b4739611-701e-4cbc-8afb-098a738599e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Review of Q&A [LW2.0 internal document]
Context
1. This is the first in a series of internal LessWrong 2.0 team documents we are sharing publicly (with minimal editing) in an effort to help keep the community up to date with what we're thinking about and working on.
2. Caveat! This is internal document and does not r... |
e3d2d674-3b82-49b8-9878-27ac157c54bc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Untangling Artificial Intelligence Ethics (Andreia Martinho)
the meeting is now recorded
andrea the floor is yours thank you good
afternoon
my name is andrei martino i'm a phd
researcher at tpm
and my supervisors are casper horos and
martin crowson
so first i want to take this opportunity
to present my research
at the... |
f3cfe550-34db-4c83-8da2-01759090c8a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to get value learning and reference wrong
Six months ago, I thought I was on to something interesting involving value learning and philosophy of reference. Then I had a series of breakthroughs - or do you still call it a breakthrough when it reveals that you were on the wrong track? Reverse breakthrough? How about... |
bfee6e40-1ab0-4377-a1f3-106c7bed6ecf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AIS Netherlands is looking for a Founding Executive Director (EOI form)
TLDR:
ENAIS is teaming up with community builders from The Netherlands to seed AIS Netherlands. You can read about the role below, and if you would be interested in founding such an organisation, fill out this expression of interest form. We are ... |
079d3453-64b1-49f1-9a74-b08dcc7f0052 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On-line google hangout on approaches to communication around agi risk (2017/5/27 20:00 UTC)
We have a number of charities that are working on different aspects of AGI risk
- The theory of the alignment problem (MIRI/FHI/more)
- How to think about problems well (CFAR)
However we don't have body dedicated to making... |
bc90245e-7ec4-4548-b313-869b019685e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Messy Science
Sometimes it's obvious who the good scientists are. They're the ones who have the Nobel Prize, or the Fields Medal. They're the ones with named professorships. But sometimes it's not obvious -- at least, not obvious to me.
In young, interdisciplinary fields (I'm most familiar with certain parts of ... |
48916763-ebd4-45aa-ab32-99c98ab761c3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | OpenOOD: Benchmarking Generalized Out-of-Distribution Detection.
OpenOOD: Benchmarking Generalized
Out-of-Distribution Detection
Jingkang Yang1, Pengyun Wang2,3, Dejian Zou2,3, Zitang Zhou2,3, Kunyuan Ding2,3,
Wenxuan Peng1, Haoqi Wang4, Guangyao Chen5, Bo Li1, Yiyou Sun7, Xuefeng Du7,
Kaiyang Zhou1, Wayne Zhang4, Dan... |
6144968f-92d0-435b-84ed-fa404ad42a14 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Salience
Epistemic Status: Speculative, a theory that works well for the experiences I've had. I'm interested in how it overlays onto other people's experiences.
When I come across a lesson or a theory about the world that I've run into before, particularly after a long period of time, I often experience a feeling of... |
e76647cc-6711-46f4-82e0-73aa4849ac3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Robin Hanson on the futurist focus on AI
Robin Hanson
Robert Long and I recently talked to Robin Hanson—GMU economist, prolific blogger, and longtime thinker on the future of AI—about the amount of futurist effort going into thinking about AI risk.
It was noteworthy to me that Robin thinks human-level AI is a century... |
7fe7cef3-3649-4c9d-bb82-b9d1ed624fa0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Estimated risk of death by coronavirus for a healthy 30 year old male ~ 1/190
Epistemic status: high uncertainty.
Even if I'm wrong this model could be useful to others, you can plug your own numbers. Please correct my assumptions in the comments if you think they're wrong or you have new/better data.
Chance of inf... |
0ebff321-8b1c-42a7-9284-4b837eb225c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes Thread September 2015
Another month, another rationality quotes thread. The rules are:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
*... |
11b2449a-a4df-44c9-8110-e20fc7b6a1d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The AI That Pretends To Be Human
The hard part about containing AI, is restricting it's output. The AI can lie, manipulate, and trick. Some speculate that it might be able to do far worse, inventing infohazards like hypnosis or brain hacking.
A major goal of the control problem is preventing AIs from doing that. Ensu... |
a8e68ccb-3229-4ead-94b3-783026ba3358 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow: The Sunday Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow: The Sunday Meetup
WHEN: 18 August 2013 04:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Russia, Moscow, ulitsa L'va Tolstogo 16
Please use the following guide to get to the meetup: link. You need the second revolving door. We will meet you at 16:00 with “LW” s... |
d045cc3f-651d-48c3-b40a-c21da30b5747 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Managing Emotional Potential Energy
I really need a holiday.
I’m feeling stressed and trapped by my responsibilities, I get angry at people and at what they ask of me, I feel miserable at the end of most days.
Now, even just a year ago, I would have looked for a cause outside of myself: my job is unsatisfying, my bo... |
319a816c-6309-4f84-96aa-8e0ee94dc407 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What risks concern you which don't seem to have been seriously considered by the community?
There are a few things I'm worried about which I have not seen discussed much, and it makes me wonder what we're collectively missing.
This seems like a question which has likely been asked before, but my Google-fu did not fin... |
1ae27430-df86-458b-b9d2-6449e1e3f42d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationalism and money
What is the rationalist perspective on profit and economic transactions? Do rationalists believe that the pursuit of profits is a worthwhile endeavor and that profit maximization is rational or is it irrational to pursue profits in all economic transactions? |
540911fe-7b2c-4832-a16f-c106a5e1b299 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Social Responsibility
This post examines the virtue of social responsibility. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what other people have learned about this virtue, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations.
I wrote this not as an expert, but a... |
59947032-d66d-4132-8dbb-166763ab24f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] How habits control our behavior, and how to modify them
The New York Times just recently ran an article titled "How Companies Learn Your Secrets", which was partially discussing data mining and partially discussing habits. I thought the bits on habits seemed to offer many valuable insights on how to improve our... |
73f52f14-f323-4fcf-813c-f6feb99e00da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Pittsburgh: Belief in Belief
Discussion article for the meetup : Pittsburgh: Belief in Belief
WHEN: 30 June 2012 11:30:00AM (+0100)
WHERE: EatUnique, Craig St, Pittsburgh, PA
Come and eat lunch and talk about those things you don't believe in believing in believing.
Suggested reading: http://lesswrong.com... |
dc32cade-44cb-4ba1-a622-cb8f1456e4c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Isaac Asimov's predictions for 2019 from 1984
My vague impressions
The whole essay is conditional on no nuclear war. Than, he explored two main big trends - computerization and space utilization. If something like a general model how Asimov did futurology can be extracted from the text, it is extending the large tren... |
271a5421-15f8-4e4d-b5ce-dcfa1ebd124e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcement: AI for Math Fund
Renaissance Philanthropy and XTX Markets today announced the launch of the AI for Math Fund. The fund will commit $9.2 million to support the development of new AI tools, which will serve as long-term building blocks to advance mathematics.
An increasing number of researchers, including... |
652cdea3-f026-4007-bd53-25a2e53b48bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI-enabled coups: a small group could use AI to seize power
We’ve written a new report on the threat of AI-enabled coups.
I think this is a very serious risk – comparable in importance to AI takeover but much more neglected.
In fact, AI-enabled coups and AI takeover have pretty similar threat models. To see this, ... |
dc5f9dc6-2e4e-4809-bc6c-831c40e2615e | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "When someone asks me why I did or said something I usually lie because the truthful answer is "I don't know". I literally don't know why I make >99% of my decisions. I think through none of these decisions rationally. It's usually some mixture of gut instinct, intuition, cultural norms, common sense and my emotional s... |
980c6551-61c0-414f-822c-72efbdbc7437 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | European Master's Programs in Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence, and related fields
While there is no shortage of detailed information on master’s degrees, we think that there is a lack of perspectives from students that have actually completed the program and experienced the university.
Therefore we decided ... |
e4e910a7-35c7-4e41-a68d-910143f780dc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Is CIRL a promising agenda?
**Richard Ngo writes**
> Since Stuart Russell's proposed alignment solution in Human Compatible is the most publicly-prominent alignment agenda, I should be more explicit about my belief that it almost entirely fails to address the core problems I expect on realistic pathways to AGI.
> ... |
a96d2049-bc40-4d82-a1bf-3b4591cc3470 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Manifold “exploring real cash prizes”
Manifold Markets has announced that they intend to add cash prizes to their current play-money model, with a raft of attendant changes to mana management and conversion. I first became aware of this via a comment on ACX Open Thread 326; the linked Notion document appears to be the... |
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