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e88cc99d-c221-4cc3-99c6-bd1c4c0a95d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LLM cognition is probably not human-like
This post is a collection of thought experiments and observations, meant to distill and explain some claims and observations about GPTs and LLMs made by myself and others.
Stated in its most general form, the claim is: the ability of a system or process to predict something we... |
38746be8-d28e-48eb-8fc1-aa28b4cda866 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Epistemic Progress
Epistemic Status: Cautiously optimistic. Much of this work is in crafting and advancing terminology in ways that will hopefully be intuitive and useful. I’m not too attached to the specifics but hope this could be useful for future work in the area.
Introduction
Strong epistemics or “good judgment... |
56a7d3a4-70f0-4a30-b6e3-f25fbfbc55e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | High School Lecture - Report
This post is a followup report to this.
On Friday's lecture, I was able to briefly cover several topics as an introduction. They centred around rationality (what it is), truth (what it is and why we should pursue it), and Newcomb's Paradox.
The turnout was as expected (6 out of a tota... |
3c15a9d1-2010-4dcd-b0b4-5444ee4c8692 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A quick and crude comparison of epidemiological expert forecasts versus Metaculus forecasts for COVID-19
Katherine Milkman on Twitter notes how far off the epidemiological expert forecasts were in the linked sample:
https://twitter.com/katy_milkman/status/1244668082062348291
They gave an average estimate of 20,000 c... |
5b915f2d-934d-44a8-9a17-87a00d0e2fb8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Causality: a chapter by chapter review
This is a chapter by chapter review of Causality (2nd ed.) by Judea Pearl (UCLA, blog). Like my previous review, the intention is not to summarize but to help readers determine whether or not they should read the book (and if they do, what parts to read). Reading the review is in... |
404942e0-dd4a-489a-b375-4b725021c251 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Institute For Propaganda Analysis, A Precursor and a Warning
Years ago, I stumbled upon this most interesting segment while reading Aldous Huxley's Brave New World Revisited, of which I have finally found an online version that enables me to share its contents with you:
> In their anti-rational propaganda the... |
1bc4b7e6-c594-48ce-b5ae-b337918b5ee8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Haskenthetical
This is a toy language I've been designing, or at least implementing, for about a year.
It's another take on "Haskell with a Lisp syntax". I'm aware of prior art: Hackett, Axel and Liskell. I haven't looked closely at any of them, because doing that seemed like it might make me less likely to keep work... |
c0404ceb-5d89-4027-8494-7fdfebf45d62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Longmont Colorado Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Longmont Colorado Meetup
WHEN: 06 September 2012 07:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: Ziggis, 400 Main Street, Longmont, CO
South for 2 weeks. What's up for the fall.
Discussion article for the meetup : Longmont Colorado Meetup |
93e57184-d071-42f5-a5d6-8b5717eea25c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Iterated Distillation and Amplification
This is a guest post summarizing Paul Christiano’s proposed scheme for training machine learning systems that can be robustly aligned to complex and fuzzy values, which I call Iterated Distillation and Amplification (IDA) here. IDA is [notably similar](/alphago-zero-and-capabili... |
5e81efb0-969a-4327-975e-bb74d30643f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Solstice
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Solstice
WHEN: 11 December 2016 05:30:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: new beach rd, Darling Point, nsw
Map link: https://www.google.com/maps/place/33%C2%B052'05.7%22S+151%C2%B014'06.2%22E/@-33.868255,151.2339687,18z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0x0!8m2!3d-33.86... |
871c2133-4dd2-4e7a-a205-954b8f6864a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's so special about likelihoods?
This is a coin.
It might be biased.
This is Bayes’ theorem.
P(A|B)=P(B|A)×P(A)P(B)
Bayes’ theorem tells us how we ought to update our beliefs given evidence.
It involves the following components:
* P(A|B), called the posterior; it is the probability of A given B. In the ca... |
e9b42a99-2b79-409a-8769-bba6a7f6a3b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Engineering Monosemanticity in Toy Models
Overview
In some neural networks, individual neurons correspond to natural "features" in the input. Such monosemantic neurons are much easier to interpret, because in a sense they only do one thing. By contrast, some neurons are polysemantic, meaning that they fire in respons... |
17308cdb-1e0c-4388-84ae-14bc122fe6b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Effective Altruism, YouTube, and AI (talk by Lê Nguyên Hoang)
None |
ef39aee1-3b70-4cb8-892e-48958964a924 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The limited upside of interpretability
**TL;DR**: A strategy aiming to elicit latent knowledge (or to make any hopefully robust, hopefully generalizable prediction) from interpreting an AGI’s fine-grained internal data may be unlikely to succeed, given that the complex system of an AGI’s agent-environment interaction ... |
3eda726f-e67b-4ac0-afa6-4a57866c5d91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Original Seeing
Since Robert Pirsig put this very well, I’ll just copy down what he said. I don’t know if this story is based on reality or not, but either way, it’s true.
> He’d been having trouble with students who had nothing to say. At first he thought it was laziness but later it became apparent that it wasn’t. ... |
eb4e8bef-4c2f-4943-8435-7f8508a38cd4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Sources of intuitions and data on AGI
Much of the difficulty in making progress on AI safety comes from the lack of useful feedback loops. We do not have a superintelligent AI to run tests on and by the time we do, it will probably be too late. This means we have to resort to using proxies. In this post, I will highli... |
7aa87027-5297-40fb-b8e6-b28f2ebb9fc6 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Previously in series: Selecting Rationalist GroupsFollowup to: Rationality is Systematized Winning, Extenuating Circumstances
Why emphasize the connection between rationality and winning? Well... that is what decision theory is for. But also to place a Go stone to block becoming a whining-based community.
Let's be fai... |
370f511e-6d94-4b91-a22e-50fee27aeca8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Competitive Universal Basic Services?
Providing basic services should often be more efficient than basic income. The state can use its centralized negotiating power to get lower prices on standardized packages, and accordingly a floor for welfare could be provided at a lower cost than just redistributing income, which... |
99dd6443-c4f2-46e2-9f5c-efb8527c7b88 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Project Idea: The cost of Coccidiosis on Chicken farming and if AI can help
Outlining the problem
---------------------
More than 68 billion chickens were farmed in 2018, representing a third of all meat produced globally in addition to 1.38 trillion eggs for human consumption.[[1]](#fnp55w17y3oi) It's probably not a... |
343345d6-b325-4b0e-ba76-e189ed0cda1c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Deontology Says Narrow-Mindedness is Always Wrong
The SBF controversy has not shifted my belief that you should always be sensitive to the relevant arguments pertaining to the specific situation, even when you think you've found good general rules, though of course those general rules may count as relevant argument... |
371d28c4-678a-4bcd-af01-0874686435e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety Newsletter #42: Newsom Vetoes SB 1047 Plus, OpenAI’s o1, and AI Governance Summary
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Listen to the AI Safety Newsletter for free on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.
Subscr... |
a41147f6-e0a0-45bf-b361-9fe1f1b3d09a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Madison
Discussion article for the meetup : Madison
WHEN: 30 August 2011 06:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 2100 Winnebago St, Madison, WI 53704
The third biweekly Madison Meetup, this week at Sector67.
For rather lighter fare than last time, we'll play at least a few rounds of The Resistance -- in which good play... |
abd1fcb1-c70c-4300-a5a6-f23b5e56e5c2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Regrant up to $600,000 to AI safety projects with GiveWiki
| |
| --- |
| The [*AI Safety GiveWiki*](https://ai.givewiki.org/) aggregates donation data from over 200 EA donors and combines them with retroactive evaluations to generate a list of the top AI safety projects to support. Some 50 donors with a total donatio... |
786c5b44-78ee-478e-9ec7-5b6e9ecbe7ae | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | New blog: Planned Obsolescence
We (Kelsey and Ajeya) just launched a new blog about AI futurism and AI alignment called *Planned Obsolescence.*If you’re interested, you can check it out [here](https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/).
Both of us have thought a fair bit about what we see as the biggest challenges in te... |
511612ff-02fc-447d-97bf-9d0d1c2b2a79 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Avoiding xrisk from AI doesn't mean focusing on AI xrisk
tl;dr: To avoid extinction, focus more on the positive opportunities for the future.
AI is an existential risk and an extinction risk - there is a non-insignificant probability that AI/AGI[1] will become super-powered, and a non-insignificant probability that s... |
c081ab7b-a115-4d7d-b421-b6e384e7f070 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Best Use Twitter
[Note: While I do intend to write more about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this post is intended to address this only indirectly rather than directly, by helping illustrate how to find other sources of information, and you are once again implored to rely on other news sources. I need to get ins... |
21a89f05-caf7-4870-913c-c83f4ccb1790 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI Awareness through Interaction with Blatantly Alien Models
**Summary:** I believe that if more people understood the alien nature of AI *on the gut level*, it might become easier for them to appreciate the risks. If this became sufficiently common knowledge, we might even get needle-moving effects on regulation and ... |
aad9599a-d43f-4b82-9561-2d0366f02497 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Oil Crisis of 1973
Last month I investigated commonalities between recessions of the last 50 years or so. But of course this recession will be different, because (among other things) we will simultaneously have a labor shortage and a lot of people out of work. That’s really weird, and there’s almost no historical ... |
214ab81c-dc46-4eab-9a10-291127245c4f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | How to think about and deal with OpenAI
Eliezer Yudkowsky [writes on twitter](https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1446562238848847877):
>
> Nothing else Elon Musk has done can possibly make up for how hard the "OpenAI" launch trashed humanity's chances of survival; previously there was a nascent spirit of coope... |
c58c8f76-7cb1-49bb-91da-671367498573 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Standing Desks and Hunter-Gatherers
I recently started using a standing desk and found it increases my productivity perhaps because my mostly caveman brain "thinks" that I will usually stand when facing cognitively challenging tasks, but I will sit when I want to relax and save energy.
Are there other ways we can att... |
27c5a33d-9c7f-4512-8786-a2c255d24167 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LINK: Study demonstrates politically motivated innumeracy
Original article: Motivated Numeracy and Enlightened Self-Government.
Easy-to-read summary of the results: Science Confirms: Politics Wrecks Your Ability to Do Math.
Easier-to-read summary of the summary: A group including both liberals and conservatives were... |
26762686-c485-4875-81b2-650051a552f8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Challenges in Detoxifying Language Models
#### **Undesired Behavior from Language Models**
Language models trained on large text corpora can generate [fluent text](https://cdn.openai.com/better-language-models/language_models_are_unsupervised_multitask_learners.pdf), and show promise as [few/zero shot learners](https... |
7b760056-5a35-422b-931f-3bf145d4210d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quarter Inch Cables are Devious
The quarter inch jack (" phone connector") is probably the oldest connector still in use today, and it's picked up a very wide range of applications. Which also means it's a huge mess in a live sound context, where a 1/4" jack could be any of:
* Unbalanced or balanced line level (~1V)... |
95a0ab22-e12a-4483-9f9d-c6f08f50b63c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | ULTRA: A Data-driven Approach for Recommending Team Formation in Response to Proposal Calls
Introduction
------------
Building teams in response to an opportunity is a common business activity. Examples are: responding to calls for proposals in product and services supply chains, expert teams for a medical procedur... |
8ba74e42-d7c0-4542-bb6c-628606991206 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Ultimate Source
This post is part of the Solution to "Free Will".
Followup to: Timeless Control, Possibility and Could-ness
Faced with a burning orphanage, you ponder your next action for long agonizing moments, uncertain of what you will do. Finally, the thought of a burning child overcomes your fear of fire, ... |
3ee3e716-e54f-48b1-af49-cd0bf274d1cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Tails Coming Apart As Metaphor For Life
[Epistemic status: Pretty good, but I make no claim this is original]
A neglected gem from Less Wrong: Why The Tails Come Apart, by commenter Thrasymachus. It explains why even when two variables are strongly correlated, the most extreme value of one will rarely be the most... |
74f688e2-1fa2-49bf-926b-ef208344ce21 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Codomain (of a function)
The codomain $\operatorname{cod}(f)$ of a [function](https://arbital.com/p/3jy) $f : X \to Y$ is $Y$, the set of possible outputs for the function. For example, the codomain of [concat](https://arbital.com/p/3jv) is the set of all [strings](https://arbital.com/p/3jr), and the codomain of the f... |
b7f968fa-9c35-4d1f-ba0a-5c9251f76e19 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Interaction-Grounded Learning with Action-inclusive Feedback
1 Introduction
---------------
Most real-world learning problems, such as BCI and HCI problems, are not tagged with rewards. Consequently, (biological and artificial) learners must infer rewards based on interactions with the environment, which reacts to ... |
e140abfa-7da9-47ec-bb44-e5a90ed750e6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Why I Am Skeptical of AI Regulation as an X-Risk Mitigation Strategy
*Epistemic Signpost: I'm not an expert in policy research, but I think most of the points here are straightforward.*
1. Regulations are ineffective at preventing bad behaviors
----------------------------------------------------------
Here's a ques... |
cd69ac7d-60b1-4fa8-b0f2-f0d9c8c173aa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The mind-killer
Can we talk about changing the world? Or saving the world?
I think few here would give an estimate higher than 95% for the probability that humanity will survive the next 100 years; plenty might put a figure less than 50% on it. So if you place any non-negligible value on future generations whose exi... |
758363d7-bf76-4154-8311-03ccdf089bdd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Should I Assume CCP AGI is Worse Than USG AGI?
Though, given my doomerism, I think the natsec framing of the AGI race is likely wrongheaded, let me accept the Dario/Leopold/Altman frame that AGI will be aligned with the national interest of a great power. These people seem to take as an axiom that a USG AGI will b... |
1dbcb462-45f7-47db-9cc2-fd4a61464b04 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Human values differ as much as values can differ
George Hamilton's autobiography Don't Mind if I Do, and the very similar book by Bob Evans, The Kid Stays in the Picture, give a lot of insight into human nature and values. For instance: What do people really want? When people have the money and fame to travel around... |
41b7ccb9-3344-4a21-9b3e-e3527659810c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Butterfly's View of Probability
Cross-posted from my blog.
Thanks to Alex Cai and Haneul Shin for discussing these ideas with me. Thanks to Eric Neyman for feedback.
What do we really mean when we use the word "probability"? Assuming that the universe obeys deterministic physical laws, an event must occur with eit... |
16d5274f-e2ad-4264-a578-6004a60a71ae | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Integrating Hidden Variables Improves Approximation
Fun fact: the KL divergence of distribution .mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap:... |
ae22868f-ef40-466f-ab5e-1276c76b9e1c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How can we respond to info-cascades? [Info-cascade series]
This is a question in the info-cascade question series. There is a prize pool of up to $800 for answers to these questions. See the link above for full background on the problem (including a bibliography) as well as examples of responses we’d be especially exc... |
7084bfce-2296-44b7-bff5-3104830d5123 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nietzsche's Morality in Plain English
In 1924, Clarence Darrow’s eight-hour plea for Leopold and Loeb blamed the universities and scholars of Nietzsche (who died in 1900) for their influence on Leopold:
> He became enamored of the philosophy of Nietzsche. Your honor, I have read almost everything that Nietzsche ever ... |
5323620d-d2b6-4699-a421-4e625fa41998 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two More Decision Theory Problems for Humans
(This post has been sitting in my drafts folder for 6 years. Not sure why I didn't make it public, but here it is now after some editing.)
There are two problems closely related to the Ontological Crisis in Humans. I'll call them the "Partial Utility Function Problem" and ... |
8a29d806-9e63-4ada-8aa7-8a961f0bdcf5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Podcast/video/transcript: Eliezer Yudkowsky - Why AI Will Kill Us, Aligning LLMs, Nature of Intelligence, SciFi, & Rationality
Context
=======
Link posting this recent [podcast/video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41SUp-TRVlg) because it is the most accessible and in-depth introduction to Eliezer's thinking that I ... |
1e51cf29-98a5-4908-9afc-f2993966b421 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Motivated skepticism: it's harder to avoid than I'd think
(I am relatively new here. Allow me to introduce myself with this anecdote, which could not have happened to me before I started reading LW.)
Yesterday I caught myself on rationalizing. It's the first time I caught myself on rationalizing before I finished (... |
c8ec80c4-3743-40a3-a2d3-48cf6815aa53 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Three Fallacies of Teleology
Followup to: Anthropomorphic Optimism
Aristotle distinguished between four senses of the Greek word aition, which in English is translated as "cause", though Wikipedia suggests that a better translation is "maker". Aristotle's theory of the Four Causes, then, might be better translated ... |
ecb6b00b-906a-4d87-8f93-49f00f257159 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fixed Point Exercises
Sometimes people ask me what math they should study in order to get into agent foundations. My first answer is that I have found the introductory class in every subfield to be helpful, but I have found the later classes to be much less helpful. My second answer is to learn enough math to understa... |
0ca62f9b-519e-461e-a3b5-6d6d4654bbeb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Exploring AI Futures Through Role Play
Introduction Artificial intelligence (AI) has an enormous potential to have a radical effect on our future, and we all have a vested interest in trying to ensure that AI is beneficial for humanity. However, there is currently no consensus in the AI research community on what the ... |
35c0e19b-6b14-405a-aea0-02c5dc02ef94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting Newsletter: May 2020.
A forecasting digest with a focus on experimental forecasting. The newsletter itself is experimental, but there will be at least four more iterations. Feel free to use this post as a forecasting open thread; feedback is welcome.
* You can sign up here.
* You can also see this post ... |
b1d9fa78-69bc-4351-a092-5ee62f873ba2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AISN #32: Measuring and Reducing Hazardous Knowledge in LLMs Plus, Forecasting the Future with LLMs, and Regulatory Markets
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Subscribe here to receive future versions.
Listen... |
5ac2fa3e-d310-4493-b509-6e1a0d0407b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prediction Markets are for Outcomes Beyond Our Control
Betting markets are the gold standard of expert predictions because bets are the ultimate test of what people truly believe.
The best betting markets are highly liquid. A liquid market is one where you can place a large bet without moving the price very much. Liq... |
11592674-4009-4505-8c48-3d393f917c64 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) - Computerphile
So today, I thought we talk about generative adversarial networks because they're really cool, and they've
They can do a lot of really cool things people have used them for all kinds of things
Things like you know you draw a sketch of a shoe
And it will render you... |
87977f17-8ee7-49b1-b09a-5e499316616a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An inquiry into memory of humans
Cross posted from: http://bearlamp.com.au/an-inquiry-into-memory-of-humans/
In trying to understand how my memory for people works, I am trying to investigate in what order my people semantic network is arranged.
For each exercise that follows you will need to think of a different pe... |
75a10dfc-8474-49eb-a483-9ff8568b5bd2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How I got 4.2M YouTube views without making a single video
Just over a month ago, I wrote this.
> The Wikipedia articles on the VNM theorem, Dutch Book arguments, money pump, Decision Theory, Rational Choice Theory, etc. are all a horrific mess. They're also completely disjoint, without any kind of Wikiproject or wik... |
248590ea-0bfe-4f8e-803e-5ffbfddcb86c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Clearing An Overgrown Garden
(tl;dr: In this post, I make some concrete suggestions for LessWrong 2.0.)
Less Wrong 2.0
A few months ago, Vaniver posted some ideas about how to reinvigorate Less Wrong. Based on comments in that thread and based on personal discussions I have had with other members of the community, I... |
5f19c3c7-0f9f-47f7-b785-8f6661ecf4ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kolmogorov's theory of Algorithmic Probability
Motivation:
In 1970, Andrey Kolmogorov presented a remarkable vision for the combinatorial foundations of probability theory at the International Congress of Mathematicians in Nice which anticipates the modern development of Artificial Intelligence:
> Using his brain,... |
a48905fd-e3e9-4c2e-baf2-6286ab276814 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #74]: Separating beneficial AI into competence, alignment, and coping with impacts
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbW... |
32a24171-cfce-4b51-b708-e901f324068b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | How Lesswrong helped me make $25K: A rational pricing strategy
3 months ago, I started a company that helps people land jobs in exchange for a cut of their income once they land a job.
Since then, I've closed 5 customers worth about ~$25K. I strongly attribute my ability to close deals to how I price. I strongly attr... |
0a2c262b-2fb8-4eda-b7a6-83596fcbc285 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Less Wrong Israel Meetup: Social and Board Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong Israel Meetup: Social and Board Games
WHEN: 13 January 2015 07:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Google, Electra Tower, 98 Yigal Alon Street, Tel Aviv
This time we're going to have a social meetup! It's going to be a game ... |
e6e4a701-df47-4f5e-83f3-20a1abac5c7c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety as a YC Startup
A while back I gave a talk about doing AI safety as a YC startup. I wrote a blog post about it and thought it would be interesting to share it with both the YC and AI safety communities. Please share any feedback or thoughts. I would love to hear them!
AI Safety is a problem and people pay ... |
f6242b1e-2d64-48b2-a7ed-00a65bf327fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Domain of Politics
Followup to: How To Construct a Political Ideology
Related to: What Do We Mean By "Rationality"?
Politics is the art of the possible.
The word 'politics' is derived from the Greek word 'poly', meaning many, and the English word 'ticks', meaning blood sucking parasites.
Politics can be inspir... |
105743a6-2447-4850-b2c2-8017875c7e8b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing the EA Archive
About the EA Archive
The EA Archive is a project to preserve resources related to effective altruism in case of a sub-existential catastrophe such as nuclear war.
Its more specific, downstream motivating aim is to increase the likelihood that a movement akin to EA (i.e., one that may go by ... |
cd776265-79b0-4882-a52b-391f420ea953 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Suffering
For a long time, I wanted to ask something. I was just thinking about it again when I saw that Alicorn has a post on a similar topic. So I decided to go ahead.
The question is: what is the difference between morally neutral stimulus responces and agony? What features must an animal, machine, program, alien,... |
aea5af2b-864f-4374-9a2a-98b84fbce58f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Attempts to Transcend our Models of Numbers
In modern times, many philosophers have dreamt of a perfect language, which would force us to speak precisely and allow us to resolve philosophical disputes by calculation rather than by argumentation. Whilst this dream appears impossible, I hope to offer a method of talk... |
235c04a3-06d2-4461-8aa8-e930ae4ba09f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Nobody Understands Probability
The goal of this post is to give an overview of Bayesian statistics as well as to correct errors about probability that even mathematically sophisticated people commonly make. Hopefully by the end of this post I will convince you that you don’t actually understand probability theory as w... |
87f36fdc-8a37-43ca-afa3-a4917067ad30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Everything I ever needed to know, I learned from World of Warcraft: Goodhart’s law
This is the first in a series of posts about lessons from my experiences in World of Warcraft. I’ve been talking about this stuff for a long time—in forum comments, in IRC conversations, etc.—and this series is my attempt to make it all... |
25e49381-3d8a-44ab-94a0-cd49b891c198 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The New Little Ice Age Has Started (2016)
|
7cef836e-4076-43e5-8970-485973fe8f35 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #117: OpenAI Buys Device Maker IO
What a week, huh? America signed a truly gigantic chip sales agreement with UAE and KSA that could be anything from reasonable to civilizational suicide depending on security arrangements and implementation details, Google announced all the things, OpenAI dropped Codex and also bou... |
e35aaa22-bc24-4e4a-86e9-22f76f65c9eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Frivolous speculation about the long-term effects of coronavirus
This is just for fun as a diversion from more serious news and thinking. I would be interested in hearing what people on LessWrong have to say about cultural / economic changes. Let's assume we (well, the survivors) get through this but it takes long eno... |
bfeb0078-e9f8-424d-965a-09fcd69a4661 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | 2016 in review
It’s time again for my annual review of MIRI’s activities.[1](https://intelligence.org/2017/03/28/2016-in-review/#footnote_0_15745 "See our previous reviews: 2015, 2014, 2013.") In this post I’ll provide a summary of what we did in 2016, see how our activities compare to our previously stated goals and ... |
512219bf-e530-4d03-bdd1-d6a6c54d2647 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (Humor, link) UnFriendly AI has claimed its first victim...
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/02/15/deadly-error-correction/ |
d00c89e9-fc12-48b2-a64c-6a0e3abef921 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | BHTV: Yudkowsky / Wilkinson
Eliezer Yudkowsky and Will Wilkinson. Due to a technical mistake - I won't say which of us made it, except that it wasn't me - the video cuts out at 47:37, but the MP3 of the full dialogue is available here. I recall there was some good stuff at the end, too.
We talked about Obama up to ... |
270a7311-cc68-4e76-a0c7-4bd9623521c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Should we live to 1,000?
Peter Singer, makes a (refreshingly simple) ethical case for anti-aging research, and endorses increased funding.
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-ethics-of-anti-aging-by-peter-singer
> On which problems should we focus research in medicine and the biological sciences? ... |
b90b5d24-abd3-4590-bcf2-53255dc5ee12 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | The collection of even-signed permutations is a group
The collection of elements of the [https://arbital.com/p/-497](https://arbital.com/p/-497) $S_n$ which are made by multiplying together an even number of permutations forms a subgroup of $S_n$.
This proves that the [https://arbital.com/p/-alternating_group](https:... |
f9994848-bcaf-4ea9-878a-7eaf8d436b53 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Group rationality diary, 7/9/12
This is the public group instrumental rationality diary for the week of July 9th. It's a place to record and chat about it if you have done, or are actively doing, things like:
* Established a useful new habit
* Obtained new evidence that made you change your mind about some belief
... |
d2acce25-764f-41bc-8522-565f64dd3e3b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Learnable Strategies for Bilateral Agent Negotiation over Multiple Issues
Abstract
--------
We present a novel bilateral agent negotiation model supporting multiple issues under user preference uncertainty. This model relies upon interpretable strategy templates representing agent negotiation tactics with learnable... |
63faabdd-c69f-427f-a407-c261477f77d7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Slatestar Codex Sao Paulo
Discussion article for the meetup : Slatestar Codex Sao Paulo
WHEN: 06 May 2017 02:00:00PM (-0300)
WHERE: Rua Antonio Carlos 452, São Paulo Brazil
Encontro mensal de racionalistas, novatos são bem vindos! Falaremos sobre Slatestar codex, teremos discussões diversas e jogos de tabu... |
5a476aef-ef48-4f47-a449-e95cb06e0909 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Don't call yourself a rationalist.
I often seem to run into problems when I use the de facto label for this group. For example, when I say, "I've been hanging out with rationalists lately," I notice that many people immediately go on the defensive. They might ask why you need a group in order to be rational, or they m... |
de826fab-eb1c-4127-a41a-cc0ad675255c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Torture vs Dust Specks Yet Again
The first time I read Torture vs. Specks about a year ago I didn't read a single comment because I assumed the article was making a point that simply multiplying can sometimes get you the wrong answer to a problem. I seem to have had a different "obvious answer" in mind.
And don't get... |
2cf735af-b121-4c75-bccc-0330df5d91f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How should I judge the impact of giving $5k to a family of three kids and two mentally ill parents?
I am giving $5k to a case worker who will buy goods for a family in New Orleans. The mother and father of the family have schizophrenia and do not work. (The father is violent, and does not live with his children.) The ... |
b0d552c8-c731-42aa-a7fe-209e3a71ebdc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New LW Meetups: Las Vegas, Warsaw
This summary was posted to LW main on March 28th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Las Vegas/Henderson, NV: 01 May 2014 06:00PM
* Warsaw: 30 March 2014 03:00PM
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong mee... |
44f8e122-f024-459f-b1da-2c1c1bed5308 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sharding the Brigade
The Secular Solstice is planning on using the bucket brigade singing app that some friends and I have been building. While the events we've hosted so far have been something like 20 people, this might be 500 or more. I've spent some time over the last couple weeks figuring out how to scale it, and... |
c7c026fa-1951-408d-bdb7-d036005e89e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Talk: AI safety fieldbuilding at MATS
I recently gave a talk to the AI Alignment Network (ALIGN) in Japan on my priorities for AI safety fieldbuilding based on my experiences at MATS and LISA (slides, recording). A lightly edited talk transcript is below. I recommend this talk to anyone curious about the high level st... |
49ef421b-5365-4657-b120-88a878233895 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | SGD's Bias
There’s a common hypothesis that stochastic gradient descent has some kind of built-in bias toward simpler models, or models which generalize better. (It’s essentially the opposite of the [NTK/GP/Mingard et al model](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/i9p5KWNWcthccsxqm/updating-the-lottery-ticket-hypothesis).)... |
d2b173ab-de99-4659-a46e-0b9342092539 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Previously (Marginal Revolution): Gambling Can Save Science
A study was done to attempt to replicate 21 studies published in Science and Nature. Beforehand, prediction markets were used to see which studies would be predicted to replicate with what probability. The results were as follows (from the original paper):
Fi... |
095b5549-b3ca-44b1-a4d1-f63d0524af84 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to the World
Epistemic Status: Good news, everyone!
On October 5, 2017, my second son was born. Everyone say hello to the wonderful Gideon Mowshowitz:
As you can imagine, it’s been quite a week. We are all doing well, and slowly recovering aside from lack of sleep.
I encourage you to send your congratulatio... |
8d50b475-dbc3-4006-b180-70816458b6d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Urbana-Champaign Scantily Attended Meetups Rerun
Discussion article for the meetup : Urbana-Champaign Scantily Attended Meetups Rerun
WHEN: 13 April 2014 12:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 300 S Goodwin Ave Apt 102, Urbana.
Two meetups I can remember didn't have enough people at them to make them what they could ha... |
d815071a-d7f7-4c42-98cc-d9105c8b8708 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Meet up: Stockholm Slate Star Codex
Discussion article for the meetup : Meet up: Stockholm Slate Star Codex
WHEN: 03 June 2017 03:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Cafe Dox, Stora Nygatan 31, 111 27 Stockholm, Sverige
Format: Discuss SSC and related topics. We might also play some boardgames if people feel like it. W... |
3bfd8674-bb3b-4a1f-93e4-384aeaa8b9f1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Does X cause Y? An in-depth evidence review
There's an interesting theory out there that X causes Y. If this were true, it would be pretty important. So I did a deep-dive into the academic literature on whether X causes Y. Here's what I fou... |
c5205aa2-97d3-4207-9846-38f44fbb4c60 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | How/When Should One Introduce AI Risk Arguments to People Unfamiliar With the Idea?
*Note: Due to the possibility that there will be a quick and easy answer to my question (e.g., a cache of sources I simply hadn’t encountered), I’ll keep the text of this post fairly short (especially in relation to my own notes/though... |
026ca4ab-ef92-4919-bdad-9a1ccd51a62c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Againstness
Epistemic status: Mixed
The concepts underlying the Againstness model (such as the division of the autonomic nervous system into the sympathetic and parasympathetic subsystems, or the bidirectional relationship between physiology and stress response) are all well-established and well-understood. The relat... |
252daf64-b2cd-4b3a-91b9-e76bafa7ac6e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Universal prior
A "universal" [prior](https://arbital.com/p/27p) is a [probability distribution](https://arbital.com/p/3tb) that assigns positive probability to *every thinkable hypothesis*, for some reasonable meaning of "every thinkable hypothesis". A central example would be [Solomonoff induction](https://arbital.... |
63a0cc63-74d7-4afb-a8bd-59ebbd407325 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Unexpected Clanging
There are two boxes in front of you. In one of them, there is a little monkey with a cymbal, whilst the other box is empty. In precisely one hour the monkey will clang its cymbal.
While you wait, you produce an estimate of the probability of the monkey being in the first box. Let's assume that... |
0b8685c7-2997-473a-be27-f7e7fc127427 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anomalous Concept Detection for Detecting Hidden Cognition
Thanks to Johannes Treutlein, Erik Jenner, Joseph Bloom, and Arun Jose for their discussions and feedback.
Summary
Monitoring an AI’s internals for features/concepts unrelated to the task the AI appears to be performing may help detect when the AI is perform... |
adba1d10-6689-4edd-b847-1e6c9d783d7e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In plain English - in what ways are Bayes' Rule and Popperian falsificationism conflicting epistemologies?
Bayes' Rule dictates how much credence you should put in a given proposition in light of prior conditions/evidence. It answers the question How probable is this proposition?
Popperian falsificationism dictates... |
8b8a5beb-8034-4fa8-92ff-b9a87165414f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Indescribable
Some things can be described only via experience.
* Direct sensory experience (such as the color red)
* Foreign untranslatable words and phrases
* Rasas
* Certain meditative states (such as kenshō and satori)
Other things cannot be precisely described at all.
* Any particular noncomputable numbe... |
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