id stringlengths 36 36 | source stringclasses 15
values | formatted_source stringclasses 13
values | text stringlengths 2 7.55M |
|---|---|---|---|
790d7a08-4d85-49f6-b548-f5a6be6b5702 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | This is my 100ᵗʰ post on Less Wrong
I started blogging one and a half years ago. Blogging has helped my life in many ways. I have met interesting people online I would never have encountered in meatspace. I have received educated feedback on esoteric topics. I have shared fun projects like Luna Lovegood and the Chambe... |
1fad7361-c89e-4561-8547-f0be208b623f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Naive TDT, Bayes nets, and counterfactual mugging
I set out to understand precisely why naive TDT (possibly) fails the counterfactual mugging problem. While doing this I ended up drawing a lot of Bayes nets, and seemed to gain some insight; I'll pass these on, in the hopes that they'll be useful. All errors are, of co... |
32f2f95f-dcd3-4a4d-8647-8000489cf834 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Myopia and Comfort Zones
As my first CFAR approaches, I meditate on the Kabbalistic interpretations of the name.
The first part is about the relationship between nearsightedness and comfort zones: the curious adjustments that I made to combat myopia, the corresponding shrinking of comfort zones, and the reason it's u... |
cc5df517-3f8d-403a-be67-452d0bba111b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Disentangling Shard Theory into Atomic Claims
Introduction
============
*Produced as part of the* [*SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program*](https://serimats.org/) *- Winter 2022 Cohort. Thanks to* [*Magdalena Wache*](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/magdalena-wache) *for giving feedback on a recent version, and to... |
b56a6fe7-d8b2-41aa-bd49-4eface01ba7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Contest for Women Who Want to Meet Our Awesome Berkeley Crew!
Are you a woman who wants a guy who's logical, reasonable, empirical, a careful thinker, reflective, doesn't believe in astrology like those crazy guys from your old high school, in a word, a rationalist?
There is a thriving rationalist community in Berkel... |
896e4956-e954-409d-9539-03a08cf0a5bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting extreme outcomes
This document explores and develops methods for forecasting extreme outcomes, such as the maximum of a sample of n independent and identically distributed random variables. I was inspired to write this by Jaime Sevilla’s recent post with research ideas in forecasting and, in particular, hi... |
86fe99c3-7aa2-4481-bfcd-c64cfd9be4f1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rational Communication
As I've probably mentioned elsewhere, I am currently studying nursing. My third year started off with a bang today: a six-hour workshop on communication skills to prepare us for our month-long psychiatric/mental health placement, scheduled for October.
The workshop would have been a lot more us... |
943c58ff-4020-482b-a6d4-3839e261f34b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Relevant powerful agent
A cognitively powerful agent is *relevant* if it is cognitively powerful enough to be a game-changer in the larger dilemma faced by Earth-originating intelligent life. Conversely, an agent is *irrelevant* if it is too weak to make much of a difference, or if the cognitive problems it can solve... |
681b670d-5c7f-404f-b18c-01fcb7e33ab4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | The Rocket Alignment Problem
The following is a fictional dialogue building off of [AI Alignment: Why It’s Hard, and Where to Start](https://intelligence.org/2016/12/28/ai-alignment-why-its-hard-and-where-to-start/).
---
(*Somewhere in a not-very-near neighboring world, where science took a very different c... |
c067e2b2-2486-417d-8645-744e5a10d785 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How likely is Peter Thiel's investment into seasteading to pay off?
Recently the relatively awesome entrepreneur invested 1.25 million USD into this (seasteading institute website here).
It seems such a wonderful concept, finally somewhere where new forms of government could be tried out. But I'm just wondering how ... |
92a64988-8b51-45da-8a27-56a0a3d80c31 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is an agent in reductionist materialism?
I see a circularity problem in how folk talk about "agents". I doubt I'm the first to notice this problem. So I wonder what the standard reductionist materialist answer is.
The puzzle is in the title.
To add a few more words:
I have no problem with things like "rock" ev... |
55e2e222-c3b6-4a2d-976e-4983176236a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fermi Estimates
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fermi Estimates
WHEN: 25 January 2015 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture
Note: the meetup location has not changed. The National Portrait Gallery shares the Old Patent O... |
388e90d5-a87e-44b1-a7eb-73e2c8c11c2d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 'High-Level Machine Intelligence' and 'Full Automation of Labor' in the AI Impacts Surveys
The 60+ Year Gap
AI Impacts has run three surveys (2016, 2022, & 2023) asking AI researchers about how they expect AI to develop in the future.[1] One of the key questions addressed was when AI capabilities will exceed human cap... |
7da81c38-c400-410e-b55a-1738c4f14eea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pausing for what?
I care about AI safety because I believe that preserving humanities potential is one of the most important things to work on. The Precipice lays out a future of humanity that I find very inspiring.
Preserving humanities potential seems so important to me because it will enable us to build the insti... |
2e29c0f0-39a6-47e9-8f05-f775f215c2b1 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post116
Note: This post is intended to be the first in a broader series of posts about the difficult tradeoffs inherent in public access to powerful open source models. While this post highlights some dangers of open models and discusses the possibility of global regulation, I am not, in general, against open sour... |
3d635373-c267-405d-9d56-bc6ab11e02d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Many maps, Lightly held
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/many-maps-lightly-held/
Many maps, lightly held.
As described in The fox and the hedgehog, among other places (munger, systems thinking). This post holds the theory statement above quite “strong”, to try to clarify the need for it. It does not apply in s... |
15c61b41-3a3b-4ff2-88f1-a939ae37bdd4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | WaPo: "Big Tech was moving cautiously on AI. Then came ChatGPT."
Some good reporting here, got quotes from a lot of people. Here are the key paragraphs, in my opinion:
> In the past year or so, top AI researchers from Google have left to launch start-ups around large language models, including Character.AI, Cohere, A... |
18286195-391b-42ea-a821-8906fcb271eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tied Crosscoders: Explaining Chat Behavior from Base Model
Abstract
We are interested in model-diffing: finding what is new in the chat model when compared to the base model. One way of doing this is training a crosscoder, which would just mean training an SAE on the concatenation of the activations in a given layer o... |
74811ed5-ed3b-46c0-8b01-d903ef72252c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety in secret
Question to the AI Safety researchers here: if, in the next four years, the US government locks down the domestic AI labs to begin a Manhattan Project style dash for AGI, would you consider (if offered) a position in such a project, understanding that you would need to abide by secrecy regulations ... |
2d76c527-ec49-40d6-8907-cdd08f7e0f52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2023 ACX Predictions: Buy/Sell/Hold
Sure, why not, let’s do it.
In past years, I looked at Scott Alexander’s prediction as a baseline. This year, thanks to Manifold Markets and Scott structuring his predictions and contest differently, I’ll be looking at market prices. The markets are in moderately fake money, but Ma... |
cc0ff525-86e6-4306-8275-bd7f35548048 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can someone design this Google Sheets bug list template for me?
Project:
My local rationality group is going to perform a structured test of the 'Hammertime' sequence. We are making a "bug list" of various problems in our lives for this sequence. (For those familiar, this variant of the bug list is loosely inspired b... |
6d92da76-8902-4a60-9b38-7aae649257a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stuart Russell's Center for Human Compatible AI is looking for an Assistant Director
|
44d85131-5217-4e7d-9a94-fd52da104041 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Grading myself on SSC's 2020 predictions
Mantic Monday: Judging April COVID Predictions
Judging Our April 2020 Covid-19 Predictions
I privately recorded my own predictions on these questions. I felt uncomfortable posting these publicly at the time. I can't fix that, but I can post my answers now and do better next t... |
1e5134ff-f033-4374-b1b6-1af72a016a4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing Skillshare.im
by Patrick Brinich-Langlois and Ozzie Gooen
-
Communities once kept our ancestors from being torn apart by mountain lions and tyrannosaurus rexes. Dinosaur violence has declined greatly since the Cretaceous, but the world has become more complex and interconnected. Communities remain essent... |
4582c8b5-5026-4443-bae2-b8879a608f27 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #111]: The Circuits hypotheses for deep learning
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet](https... |
9446f8cd-3ea8-4ddc-9654-c0d6cca6ba55 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How MATS addresses “mass movement building” concerns
Recently, many AI safety movement-building programs have been criticized for attempting to grow the field too rapidly and thus:
1. Producing more aspiring alignment researchers than there are jobs or training pipelines;
2. Driving the wheel of AI hype and progres... |
cef3e50d-9f19-442a-997a-0a38ab07260c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fundamental Uncertainty: Chapter 3 - Why don't we agree on what's right?
N.B. This is a chapter in a book about truth and knowledge. It is the first draft. I have since revised it. You can find the most up-to-date info/version on the book's website.
You're walking down the street and find a lost wallet. You open it a... |
e802f6f1-4409-4dcf-89c9-8e1e87125b50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Usefulness grounds truth
Crosspost from https://invertedpassion.com/usefulness-grounds-truth/
Are LLMs intelligent?
Debates on this question often, but not always, devolve into debates on what LLMs can or cannot do. To a limited extent, the original question is useful because it creates an opening for people to go i... |
cf89ab22-8d9f-4f19-a176-faeb9ae10601 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/distill | Distill Scientific Journal | Exploring Bayesian Optimization
Many modern machine learning algorithms have a large number of hyperparameters. To effectively use these algorithms, we need to pick good hyperparameter values.
In this article, we talk about Bayesian Optimization, a suite of techniques often used to tune hyperparameters. More general... |
52538666-d720-4439-89f2-118ec49ce5f1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality and Winning
Someone who claims to have read "the vast majority" of the Sequences recently misinterpreted me to be saying that I "accept 'life success' as an important metric for rationality." This may be a common confusion among LessWrongers due to statements like "rationality is systematized winning" and ... |
6a6774c0-8726-4a14-a9b7-892195865242 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A smart enough LLM might be deadly simply if you run it for long enough
TL;DR: I introduce a new potential threat: a smart enough LLM, even if it’s myopic, not fine-tuned with any sort of RL, “non-agentic”, and was prompt-engineered into imitating aligned and helpful scientists who are doing their best to help you wi... |
62183114-ed56-4dc8-b925-610a90dc01da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reproject on Cropping
Sometimes you'll come across a picture that looks all skewed, usually where someone cropped a small piece out of the corner of something larger:
Projecting a 3D scene to make a 2D picture unavoidably introduces distortion, worse the farther you are from the center, so if you crop to just th... |
0fec9310-27ed-4b6b-86e6-c2089d7029be | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Reward Learning from Narrated Demonstrations
1 Introduction
---------------
 But I think that the thinking on this has no... |
61c9b6b2-d289-4c76-87ea-35cf7bf08d30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | That which can be destroyed by the truth, should be assumed to should be destroyed by it
This is a post about bringing a concept from German law, Beweislast, which is most likely also present in all legal systems worldwide, to rationality, specifically to this old but central tenant of it.
Beweislast means burden of... |
ce04ae9e-5c3c-48a2-94d8-1906c673b1d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Infinite Certainty
In “Absolute Authority,” I argued that you don’t need infinite certainty:
> If you have to choose between two alternatives A and B, and you somehow succeed in establishing knowably certain well-calibrated 100% confidence that A is absolutely and entirely desirable and that B is the sum of everythin... |
8638a645-0679-414d-a83f-a7b8baef0a5b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Would the Real Economy Please Stand Up
More-or-less an exegesis of The Manual Economy. Warning: I am not an economist; this is speculative. Cross-posted from Grand, Unified, Empty.
I.
What does “the economy” mean to you? What do those words point to in the world? If I say instead “the banana”, that’s a pretty well-d... |
1a1e516d-19bd-4a6c-b741-df07987c0375 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #98]: Understanding neural net training by seeing which gradients were helpful
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look thro... |
f3ac9dbd-39bc-4cc6-bae3-db5d24e85642 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are humans misaligned with evolution?
There is an argument that although humans evolved under pressure to maximize inclusive genetic fitness (IGF), humans don't actually try to maximize their own IGF. This, as the argument goes, shows that in the one case we have of a process creating general intelligence, it was not ... |
f9282696-c543-4d5d-af85-e4ac7475eaae | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | First Post
Welcome to Cold Takes, where it's always fine to read the post later!
About
-----
Most of the posts on this blog are written at least a month before they're posted, sometimes much longer. I try to post things that are worth posting even so, hence the name "Cold Takes."
As of this writing (July 2021), ... |
9e337914-bc9d-46b6-b5b5-2a27356ae6ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sequence Exercise: "Extensions and Intensions" from "A Human's Guide to Words"
Exercise for “Extensions and Intensions”
Give an intensional definition for each of the following words:
1. Shoe
2. Hope
3. Wire
4. Green
5. Politician
6. Apple
Now rank them from easiest to define to hardest.
Describe how you wou... |
a9d7171b-69c0-43dd-86c0-b21f00c4bb3e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DC Meetup Discussion
There are some LWers in the DC area. We should meet up.
Unfortunately, I'm out of town pretty much until the end of April. But there are a few things to work out before then, so I might as well post now.
A meetup needs:
* People
* Location
* Time/Day
* Things to do/talk about
The first one... |
70301894-72b9-4cfa-9198-2c085aaf904e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Breaking the Optimizer’s Curse, and Consequences for Existential Risks and Value Learning
Multi-Armed Bandits Considered Harmful
People frequently analyze the process of artificial agents gathering knowledge in the framework of explore/exploit strategies for multi-armed bandits. However, a multi-armed bandit is a simp... |
b81346ac-e8df-43b5-9de3-fdd62f7c29e5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Terminal Values and Instrumental Values
On a purely instinctive level, any human planner behaves as if they distinguish between means and ends. Want chocolate? There's chocolate at the Publix supermarket. You can get to the supermarket if you drive one mile south on Washington Ave. You can drive if you get into th... |
2beaa79c-c468-4a80-8a32-874d06466310 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Timelines for Transformative AI and Language Model Alignment | Ajeya Cotra
hi everyone welcome my name is felipe
and welcome to our fireside chat with
ajaya kotra on timelines for
transformative ai and language model
alignments ajay katra is a senior
research analyst at open philanthropy
she recently published a repor... |
de3f092c-93c5-4c2f-9eb5-d6830ccb0578 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | April drafts
By Katja Grace, April 1 2021
Today we are sharing with our blog readers a collection of yet-to-be-published drafts, in the hope of receiving feedback. We are especially looking for methodological critique, but all comments welcome!
Human-level performance estimate (Katja Grace)
How much hardware will w... |
5125ef7a-9372-4697-9b5e-c94be25520aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Last Questions (part 1)
The Reality Club was an informal gathering of intellectuals who met from 1981 to 1996 in Chinese restaurants, artist lofts, investment banking firms, ballrooms, museums, living rooms and elsewhere. Reality Club members presented their work with the understanding that they will be challenged... |
60dd6521-719d-47b1-bc09-2e6a8456e60b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | AI safety needs social scientists _ Amanda Askell _ EA Global - London 2018-by Centre for Effective Altruism-video_id TWHcK-BNo1w-date 20190301
# Amanda Askell AI safety needs social scientists - EA Forum
\_When an AI wins a game against a human, that AI has usually trained by playing that game against itself million... |
a8a22d22-7610-4906-b8f7-2be4e392626f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] A review of proposals toward safe AI
> Eliezer Yudkowsky set out to define more precisely what it means for an entity to have “what people really want” as a goal. Coherent Extrapolated Volition was his proposal. Though CEV was never meant as more than a working proposal; his write-up provides the best insights ... |
f178d778-c129-4720-90db-1a63163a0e2f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What is being improved in recursive self improvement?
When an AGI recursively self improves, is it improving just it's software or is it improving the hardware too? Is it acquiring more hardware (e.g. by creating a botnet on the internet)? Is it making algorithmic improvements? Which improvements are responsible for t... |
1581d186-160e-4535-8f73-89c9718cc7c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Cambridge, MA Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Cambridge, MA Meetup
WHEN: 29 September 2013 02:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 98 Elm St Apt. 1 Somerville
We have a new location! This week's meetup will be held at Citadel, the new rationalist house at 98 Elm St. Apt 1 Somerville (near Porter Square). Camb... |
fe068c1f-9eb7-414a-b8ec-ba8626c5f9a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Austin LW [Edit With Your Details]
(The following are our suggestions for what kind of information is best to include in the welcome post of your group, feel free to replace them with whatever you think is best)
What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do?
How frequently does ... |
989960fd-0ebf-431b-ab99-008474bd7ac0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A very strange probability paradox
Which of the following do you think is bigger?
A: The expected number of rolls of a fair die until you roll two 6s in a row, given that all rolls were even.
B: The expected number of rolls of a fair die until you roll the second 6 (not necessarily in a row), given that all rolls we... |
d49340f2-cb5f-45a2-8e57-05078991de6d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Prisoners' Dilemma with Costs to Modeling
We consider a modification to the open source prisoners' dilemma in which agents must pay some resources to model each other. We will use the modal combat framework, but where agents pay a cost proportional to the depth of boxes in their code. Even a small modeling penalty mak... |
139baf25-3fdb-41f6-810a-c9e931f0f902 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Happiness maximizer
It is sometimes proposed that we build an AI intended to maximize human happiness. (One early proposal suggested that AIs be trained to recognize pictures of people with smiling faces and then to take such recognized pictures as reinforcers, so that the grown version of the AI would value happines... |
8af07ebd-f4f6-4415-9f93-8518e4ec79c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Summaries: Alignment Fundamentals Curriculum
The linked document provides my summaries for most core readings and many further readings of the alignment fundamentals curriculum composed by Richard Ngo, as accessed from July to early September 2022. Additionally, it often contains my preliminary opinions on the texts. ... |
2cfacd0f-d510-433d-af1a-e322a46122e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New US Senate Bill on X-Risk Mitigation [Linkpost]
Two US Senators have introduced a bipartisan bill specifically focused on x-risk mitigation, including from AI. From the post on Senate.gov (bold mine):
> WASHINGTON, D.C. – U.S. Senator Gary Peters (MI), Chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Com... |
82f77054-71b4-4830-882a-7cf25b567472 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | A collection of AI Governance-related Podcasts, Newsletters, Blogs, and more
Over the past few years podcasts, and more recently newsletters, have been the main way I’ve absorbed information about topics related to AI governance. Until fairly recently I would describe myself (depending on my mood) as either a podcast ... |
38dd609a-46ad-471c-bbad-0ae79fd1b418 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Risk and Opportunity: Humanity's Efforts So Far
Part of the series AI Risk and Opportunity: A Strategic Analysis.
(You can leave anonymous feedback on posts in this series here. I alone will read the comments, and may use them to improve past and forthcoming posts in this series.)
This post chronicles the story o... |
90d44b8d-3e66-44cd-a2ea-5355db2bfec5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Act of Charity
(Cross-posted from my blog)
> The stories and information posted here are artistic works of fiction and falsehood. Only a fool would take anything posted here as fact.
>
> —Anonymous
Act I.
Carl walked through the downtown. He came across a charity stall. The charity worker at the stall called out, ... |
7a07bdc0-bc4e-4dc7-a205-f39fb48b23f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Jesse Hoogland on Developmental Interpretability and Singular Learning Theory
Jesse Hoogland is a research assistant at David Krueger's lab in Cambridge studying AI Safety who has recently been publishing on LessWrong about how to apply Singular Learning Theory to Alignment, and even organized some workshop in Berkele... |
7f7a37fb-2380-45e2-b81c-3ac7ed659f8f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Promise and Peril of Finite Sets
Has this ever happened to you?
> But how can we decide whether this {species/moral theory/consensus node/quantum world} is actually 2 different things, or just 1 thing? Or does it even count at all?
>
>
The underlying cause of such dilemmas is that somebody, somewhere in the s... |
12719ddb-c88c-488b-9710-0681d3b0cafa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DnD.Sci GURPS Evaluation and Ruleset
Data Generation
The World
The world has five locations. I loosely imagined the Thunderwood Peaks as a northern mountainous region, the Lordsteppes as a plateau in the west, the Miresmouth Forests as a southern marsh, the Scorchsand Shores as an eastern coastal desert/beach region... |
72b9966d-7f04-427d-b564-1ce57b9a197c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Safe Stasis Fallacy
A critical failure mode in many discussions of technological risk is the assumption that maintaining status quo for technology would lead to maintaining the status quo for society. Lewis Anslow suggests that this "propensity to treat technological stagnation as safer than technological acceleration... |
db91cdb9-8cba-4ecc-864f-7a4f9dac50d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Vancouver Fashion for Rationalists
Discussion article for the meetup : Vancouver Fashion for Rationalists
WHEN: 13 January 2013 01:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 2150 Macdonald St Vancouver BC
We are going to have a guest come up from Seattle (jsalvatier) to give us his presentation on fashion for rationalists. It... |
e03d0c90-9bcf-4175-84b0-bd85f6823e32 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "More and more, LessWrong's posts are meta-rationality posts, about how to be rational, how to avoid akrasia, in general, without any specific application. This is probably the intended purpose of the site. But they're starting to bore me.
What drew me to LessWrong is that it's a place where I can put rationality into ... |
62bf380f-802c-424e-853e-91ed2f7110cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Who are your favourite rationalist bloggers?
I want to check out more rationalist bloggers.
Please list no more than one per answer. That way I can see from the upvotes/downvotes which ones are the most popular (and hopefully which ones are most worth checking out).
I know that popularity isn't a perfect signal, but... |
857bb32c-9b69-4cf3-9c78-1ffbded7b422 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Conversation with Steve Potter
*Posted 13 July 2015*
### Participants
[](http://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/SteveholdingMEA.jpg)**Figure 1:** Professor Steve Potter
* **[Professor Steve Potter](https://neurolab.gatech.edu/labs/p... |
f753f358-eb69-4b33-b157-cbfcbd25cc4e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes May 2012
Here's the new thread for posting quotes, with the usual rules:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
* Do not quote yours... |
edf255fd-fbb9-4ad5-a9a8-98f52b55115e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Model-Based Reinforcement Learning via Meta-Policy Optimization
1 Introduction
---------------
Most of the recent success in reinforcement learning was achieved using model-free reinforcement learning algorithms [[1](#bib.bib1), [2](#bib.bib2), [3](#bib.bib3)]. Model-free (MF) algorithms tend to achieve optimal per... |
f9655e82-72df-49ce-8e92-c46decfb9f10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Post/Pre
Ken Wilbur has described the Pre/Trans or Post/Pre Fallacy: that is, confusing not understanding a framework with being beyond the need for it. Imagine:
* Aerial is an aspiring artist who identifies as a free spirit. She loves nothing more than manifest the images in her head onto the page, but she experien... |
0abb2176-a547-418d-bfe1-2e6f79790a63 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Upcoming PEPFAR Cut Will Kill Millions, Many of Them Children
Crossposted from my blog.
(This could end up being the most important thing I’ve ever written. Please like and restack it—if you have a big blog, please write about it).
A mother holds her sick baby to her chest. She knows he doesn’t have long to l... |
0d20157e-392d-46ad-8670-a9f20fd3578a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Box inversion revisited
Box inversion hypothesis is a proposed correspondence between problems with AI systems studied in approaches like agent foundations, and problems with AI ecosystems, studied in various views on AI safety expecting multipolar, complex worlds, like CAIS. This is an updated and improved introducti... |
9c4267fe-6f01-45b5-8bad-58358cb9fa24 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Intro to AI Existential Risk
Discussion article for the meetup : Intro to AI Existential Risk
WHEN: 22 September 2013 08:33:39PM (-0400)
WHERE: 25 Ames St, Cambridge, MA 02139
Organizations like Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute and the Machine Intelligence Research Institute consider artificial intell... |
7a21593c-285d-4996-8270-12bccef20292 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on September 25th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* First meetup in Lund: 19 October 2015 06:00PM
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Australia Onli... |
5a540a02-9230-48ac-aa5c-6dd6dd062a37 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Rational Utilitarian Love Movement (A Historical Retrospective)
I found this post the other day and quite enjoyed it. Even if you disagree with all of its conclusions, it's at least a fun story full of hilarious references to esoteric bits of EA/rationalist culture. I recommend taking a read!
Vague spoilers below... |
78596d11-ce2f-4c2f-a237-9ca40f7e284d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Sleeping Beauty problem and transformation invariances
I recently read this blog post by Allen Downey in response to a reddit post in response to Julia Galef's video about the Sleeping Beauty problem. Downey's resolution boils down to a conjecture that optimal bets on lotteries should be based on one's expected st... |
0669e02c-2128-4a86-80fe-d64b078b4bd6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Money pumping: the axiomatic approach
This post gets somewhat technical and mathematical, but the point can be summarised as:
* You are vulnerable to money pumps only to the extent to which you deviate from the von Neumann-Morgenstern axioms of expected utility.
In other words, using alternate decision theories is ... |
b933fd5f-b7a0-463b-ae82-144002e3d8f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Efficient Charity
I wrote this article in response to Roko's request for an article about efficient charity. As a disclosure of a possible conflict of interest I'll note that I have served as a volunteer for GiveWell. Last edited 12/06/10.
Charitable giving is widely considered to be virtuous and admirable. If stati... |
8865da56-9071-4d74-ac05-bbddc9be54fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In Defense of Unreliability
In a long post mostly about a different issue, Zvi Mowshowitz writes:
> I also strongly endorse that the default level of reliability needs to be much, much higher than the standard default level of reliability, especially in The Bay. Things there are really bad.
>
> When I make a plan wi... |
fbd3e487-f1c9-4081-9bb6-46b4756fd22a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Flying With Covid
I flew out to CA for a gig this weekend, and two of my kids came along. We got into SFO late Thursday night, drove to San Jose to sleep, and got to the gig on Friday. We took rapid tests, all negative. A late night, and the kids fell asleep backstage in the keyboard case:
Saturday morning one w... |
93d8e9c4-0e67-4dc0-a371-3a55543da8f1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Humboldt SSC [Edit With Your Details]
(The following are our suggestions for what kind of information is best to include in the welcome post of your group, feel free to replace them with whatever you think is best)
What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do?
How frequently do... |
c8840b48-fbc7-4372-ae53-bdd255751aaa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An inflection point for probability estimates of the AI takeoff?
Suppose that your current estimate for possibility of an AI takeoff coming in the next 10 years is some probability x. As technology is constantly becoming more sophisticated, presumably your probability estimate 10 years from now will be some y > x. ... |
2db3556b-7921-4515-8e16-329d947f62bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI risk-related improvements to the LW wiki
Back in May, Luke suggested the creation of a scholarly AI risk wiki, which was to include a large set of summary articles on topics related to AI risk, mapped out in terms of how they related to the central debates about AI risk. In response, Wei Dai suggested that among ot... |
e3e10381-60b3-4ef6-87c1-d967bec292c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Associated vs Relevant
Also cross-posted to my blog.
The List of Nuances (which is actually more of a list of fine distinctions - a fine distinction which only occurred to its authors after the writing of it) has one glaring omission, which is the distinction between associated and relevant. A List of Nuances is l... |
209a5935-a7ba-46a6-95f4-37ba1d20b0eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow: Rationality in our daily life
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow: Rationality in our daily life
WHEN: 17 February 2013 04:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Russia, Moscow, ulitsa L'va Tolstogo 16
Please use the following guide to get to the meetup: link. You need the second revolving door with the sig... |
03eedf46-fc1b-45dd-9d51-bbff1955b740 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Has "politics is the mind-killer" been a mind-killer?
To my mind, one of the seminal pieces of writing in the rationalsphere is Eliezer's short essay titled "Politics is the mind-killer".
YMMV, but it had a big influence on me personally. On reflection, however, I think its influence was negative rather than positive... |
4cadd1d1-1e52-4b81-9c34-165965435584 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC fun and games meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC fun and games meetup
WHEN: 20 January 2013 05:23:13PM (-0500)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery courtyard, Washington, DC 20001, USA
We'll be playing games! I'll bring Zendo: if you have a fun game, please bring it!
Discu... |
2fb59f30-0a8b-47a8-8e5a-e03fedd1d81e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | New year, new research agenda post
*Thanks to Steve Byrnes, Adam Shimi, John Wentworth, and Peter Barnett for feedback.*
In a nutshell, my plan A is to understand what we want from superintelligent AI really, really well. So well that we can write down a way of modeling humans that illuminates human preferences i... |
7839cc54-820e-4a7f-90eb-d80ea98f7e99 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Point-Based Value Iteration
Followup to: The Bayesian Agent
This post explains one interesting and influential algorithm for achieving high utility of the actions of a Bayesian agent, called Point-Based Value Iteration (original paper). Its main premise resembles some concept of internal availability.
A reinforcemen... |
922861b0-537a-4a87-9725-20e6889e268e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Universality and consequentialism within HCH
The scalability of iterated amplification is closely tied to whether very large teams of humans are “[ascription universal](/towards-formalizing-universality-409ab893a456).” If they are, we [could](/informed-oversight-18fcb5d3d1e1) [hope](/universality-and-model-based-rl-b0... |
86f1d6a3-6103-41b0-b453-54143a1216c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wikipedia: Moravec's Paradox
Linky. Quotes:
> Moravec's paradox is the discovery by artificial intelligence and robotics researchers that, contrary to traditional assumptions, high-level reasoning requires very little computation, but low-level sensorimotor skills require enormous computational resources.
>
> [...]
... |
8ee51f6c-c879-4999-8fb2-14c25718ba75 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Proposal for a Form of Conditional Supplemental Income (CSI) in a Post-Work World
[Cross-posted to the EA Forum]
TL;DR: I propose a form of conditional supplemental income (CSI) for humans once AI’s can do basically all work. This would be on top of a universal basic income (UBI), and people would earn the CSI by doi... |
b015babd-ea58-4c5b-9d41-1bef5e1088fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chat Bankman-Fried: an Exploration of LLM Alignment in Finance
Hi all,
roughly one year ago I posted a thread about failed attempts at replicating the first part of Apollo Research's experiment where an LLM agent engages in insider trading despite being explicitly told that it's not approved behavior.
Along with a f... |
ce14d42d-c582-483a-a3ce-9be9845c27b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should effective altruists care about the US gov't shutdown and can we do anything?
For those who haven't heard, NIH and NSF are no longer processing grants, leading to many negative downstream effects.
I've been directing my attention elsewhere lately and don't have anything informative to say about this. However, m... |
c8e82d8d-b971-4b4f-b2fa-0f2c69355527 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Follow Up: Predictions as a Substitute For Reviews
In August I wrote about using PredictionBook as a substitute for weekly reviews. Several months later, I am rather predictably not using it, for the same reason weekly reviews stop working: it reminded me of something I endorsed doing but didn’t finish, and that put a... |
c503be9d-fbf6-4db8-9d85-862affb8c2f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Reverence
This post examines the virtue of reverence (a.k.a. “holiness”, “piety”, “sanctity”). I wrote this not as an expert, but as someone who wants to learn. I hope it helps people who want to know more about this virtue and how to nurture it.
I am an atheist, and am addressing an audience in which, if I’... |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.