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fff3436c-7de5-4b4d-bd43-c91ff64e6c44
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Rational Consensus 1 Introduction --------------- Consensus is a fundamental problem in distributed computing; it plays a key role in state machine replication, transaction commitment, and many other tasks where agreement among processes is required. It is well known that consensus cannot be deterministically achie...
12535c37-bd7a-4891-984e-29ae72a1bb59
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Hassa Deega Ebowai or the paradox of religiousness in front of adversity Hasa Diga Ebowai (["Does it mean "no worries for the rest of our lives?"" *"Kinda"*](http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=AhxChl9bGl0)) is a song from Trey Parker and Matt Stone's "The Book of Mormon", an affectionate parody of r...
07537ba9-b4c9-48a7-ab11-5f31151d79a5
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
A sketch of acausal trade in practice One implication of functional decision theory is that it might be possible to coordinate across causally-disconnected regions of the universe. This possibility has been variously known as acausal trade, multiverse-wide cooperation via superrationality (MSR), or evidential cooperat...
8b9f7278-c291-467f-86d4-c525517d4b02
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Atlanta Discussion article for the meetup : Atlanta   WHEN: 17 March 2012 06:30:00PM (-0500) WHERE: 2094 North Decatur Road, Decatur, GA 30033-5367 The next meetup will be Saturday, March 17th at 6:30pm at Chocolate Coffee in Decatur: http://www.mychocolatecoffee.com/ 2094 North Decatur Road, Decatur, G...
0b657e1c-00fb-4f55-9f0d-0277574a8d1b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Superintelligence 24: Morality models and "do what I mean" This is part of a weekly reading group on Nick Bostrom's book, Superintelligence. For more information about the group, and an index of posts so far see the announcement post. For the schedule of future topics, see MIRI's reading guide. ----------------------...
e70badd7-8d67-4aae-9cef-d7d9a12a1e80
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Is Optimization Correct? 1.  Is Optimization Correct?  The risk of "optimization" has long been recognized in AI alignment, such as the problems of instrumental convergence (Bostrom 2014). Nevertheless, it is difficult for AI designers to escape from the engineering concept of "optimization" because the concept of "op...
d964b4d1-ff7d-4cf4-9de7-655d8db8f175
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
England & Wales & Windfalls *Another huge thanks to Holly Scott, Aryan Yadav, Jide Alaga, Cullen O’Keefe, Haydn Bellfield and Peter Wills. This post has been greatly improved thanks to all your helpful feedback.* --- This is the third post in ‘[Towards a Worldwide, Watertight Windfall Clause](https://forum.effecti...
f99b13c7-ae2f-4214-849d-bc9dae97063e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Aligning my web server with devops practices: part 1 (backups) UPDATE: Part 2 is now published here. I have a web server that serves a double-digit number of different domains and subdomains, such as contractwork.vipulnaik.com and groupprops.subwiki.org. I originally set it up in 2013, and more recently upgraded it a...
9ace34ce-d996-4d5e-ae5a-0387dea7ef03
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Gradient – The Artificiality of Alignment The Gradient is a “digital publication about artificial intelligence and the future,” founded by researchers at the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Laboratory. I found the latest essay, “The Artificiality of Intelligence,” by a PhD student at UC Berkeley, to be an interes...
d58274d9-f7bb-4810-823f-7fe931b07779
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Dario Amodei’s prepared remarks from the UK AI Safety Summit, on Anthropic’s Responsible Scaling Policy *I hope Dario's remarks to the Summit can shed some light on how we think about RSPs in general and Anthropic's RSP in particular, both of which have been discussed extensively since [I shared our RSP announcement](...
d23e16a2-ee97-438c-a0be-4fe3b0afc788
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Constituency-sized AI congress? I just had the idea for a constituency-sized AI congress. Each member of the constituency would have their personal debate agent trained on their preferences and values. The agents would debate tirelessly at superhuman speed to develop proposals which represented the best available win-...
48b6a2f9-7d88-4b32-9e43-4cefa88fad96
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
What are good ML/AI related prediction / calibration questions for 2019? I'm trying to come up with a set of questions for self-calibration, related to AI and ML. I've written down what I've come up with so far below. But I am principally interested in what other people come up with -- thus the question metatype -- b...
44947d7b-afa6-469d-afcb-52e9150509cb
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Partial rewrite of the "Direct Instruction" thing So yeah, "Scientifically optimizing education: Hard problem, or solved problem? Introducing the Theory of Direct Instruction". Probably not gonna go down in history as my best piece of writing ever, to say the least. Clearly I need to fix that. As an initial measure, ...
a6072035-6517-443a-9a78-41c7a60f356b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Implications of the Doomsday Argument for x-risk reduction Lesswrong contains a large intersection of people who are interested in x-risk reduction and people who are aware of the Doomsday Argument. Yet these two things seem to be incompatible with each other, so I'm going to ask about the elephant in the room: What ...
1b134145-609d-4b8a-b9ad-6e729c95de79
LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct
LessWrong
"I have had the following situation happen several times during my research career: I write code to analyze data; there is some expectation about what the results will be; after running the program, the results are not what was expected; I go back and carefully check the code to make sure there are no errors; sometimes...
b0059f09-2daf-41c0-96d6-f924642a8dd4
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
What happens with logical induction when... So this is a bunch of related technical questions about logical induction.   Firstly, do you need the formal theorem prover section? Can you just throw out the formal theorem prover, but give some programs in the market unbounded capital and get the same resultant behaviou...
464da42d-ad4a-419e-a075-ed4cada272d4
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
The longest training run **In short:** Training runs of large Machine Learning systems are likely to last less than 14-15 months. This is because longer runs will be outcompeted by runs that start later and therefore use better hardware and better algorithms. [Edited 2022/09/22 to fix an error in the hardware improvem...
426d3847-877b-4300-b0c7-5a754dfc4d22
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Out-of-body reasoning (OOBR) The abbreviated title is a pun on "über".  As the über-theory, it has to be believed, right? Outline I'd like to suck all of the joy and intrigue out of Sleeping Beauty and related problems by claiming that a rational agent always, boringly, makes decisions thus: * Assume a God-like "o...
b526e3e7-8bc4-4123-988a-141d6bb6d8ec
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Legends of Runeterra: Early Review Legends of Runeterra has been getting a generally favorable reception. The game is highly relevant to my interests as someone who plays a lot of collectible card games and is making a collectible card game of my own called Emergents, together with Brian David-Marshall, that will be r...
8e0a4bf1-4591-48b5-85c2-34b323937c7b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Deriving techniques on the fly Original post:  http://bearlamp.com.au/deriving-techniques-on-the-fly/ ---------------------------------------- Last year Lachlan Cannon came back from a CFAR reunion and commented that instead of just having the CFAR skills we need the derivative skills.  The skills that say, "I need ...
0adc27d4-d57a-49ed-9f37-c589472ce508
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
2020 Review: Final Voting Click here to begin voting. Click here for a general overview of the 2020 Review. We're now in the final week of the LessWrong 2020 Review. We've had over a month of preliminary voting and discussion. Now it's time to finalize our votes. In this post I cover how to vote, why to vote, and wha...
16c05bb4-b37c-45d0-bc7e-e7291319dd45
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Sex, Death, and Complexity Cancer can be understood as evolution within the body. Cancer is a mutation, and that mutation is selected for, while the body is alive. The cancer cells are more "successful" than other cells, because they are selfish reproducers. They out-compete other cells for the resources of the body. ...
b5a85e09-8def-4526-b931-75dc1f1938cd
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
Capping AGI profits Introduction ------------ Beyond the many concerns around AI alignment, the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) also raises concerns about the concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a few corporations. While I’m very glad to see people working on avoiding worst-case-sce...
f22bd0a8-d098-49cb-841d-666cfc7cdb28
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Melbourne, practical rationality Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne, practical rationality WHEN: 07 June 2013 07:00:00PM (+1000) WHERE: 491 King Street, West Melbourne VIC 3003, Australia NOTE: We've moved a stone's throw from our old office. Note the new address (which is unchanged from May, bu...
c48b624d-0c4f-4ca6-99cb-35fff9d124c1
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Post AGI effect prediction What differentiate us from AI? Human's sense of meaning usually are derived from feeling special, on an individual or collective basis. We want to prove ourselves different through tastes, hobbies, and career choices. Difference also show through collective culture and individual values. Bio...
8e5bed4b-da9b-46f8-97fa-d5766edd83bc
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Ethical and incentive-compatible way to share finances with partner when you both work? My partner and I have been living together for a year. We currently share our finances to some extent (we have our own bank accounts, but have a shared credit card). I've been thinking about how our current system can be made more ...
1f90e7c7-c621-4170-b20d-108e082c8824
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Hierarchical Optimal Transport for Comparing Histopathology Datasets 1 Introduction --------------- Histopathology images are routinely used in the diagnostic workup of many cancers. Beyond the standard identification of tumor grade and subtype, histopathology images also contain an abundance of visual information ...
1209eec5-4375-46e6-984d-dc65bb702052
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Principles for Alignment/Agency Projects "John, what do you think of this idea for an alignment research project?" I get questions like that fairly regularly. How do I go about answering? What principles guide my evaluation? Not all of my intuitions for what makes a project valuable can easily be made legible, but I ...
fd060e8b-0914-4c84-bead-78425316eaaa
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[link] Speed is the New Intelligence From Scott Adams Blog The article really is about speeding up government, but the key point is speed as a component of smart:  > A smart friend told me recently that speed is the new intelligence, at least for some types of technology jobs. If you are hiring an interface designer...
57a4b5a2-8ca8-42f4-877a-38e1582dbe1e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Have we really forsaken natural selection? Natural selection is often charged with having goals for humanity, and humanity is often charged with falling down on them. The big accusation, I think, is of sub-maximal procreation. If we cared at all about the genetic proliferation that natural selection wanted for us, the...
cf370eb4-55e2-4567-9b80-348a3e6e9dd6
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How to solve deception and still fail. A mostly finished post I'm kicking out the door. You'll get the gist. I There's a tempting picture of alignment that centers on the feeling of "As long as humans stay in control, it will be okay." Humans staying in control, in this picture, is something like humans giving lots ...
f1e9e5c2-1270-4eb5-a6c5-56c4220b013d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Difficulty classes for alignment properties I don't think this idea is particularly novel, but it comes up often in conversations I have, so I figured it'd be good to write it up. How do you prevent deception from AI systems? One obvious thing to try would be to make sure that your model never thinks deceptive thoug...
3954b5d2-de19-4c3f-b768-c874dc23e6b6
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
SIA fears (expected) infinity It's well known that the Self-Indication Assumption (SIA) has problems with infinite populations (one of the reasons I strongly recommend not using the probability as the fundamental object of interest, but instead the decision, as in anthropic decision theory). SIA also has problems wit...
3a82a0ea-62a0-4260-8c26-a2f86d6005aa
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs
Blogs
New paper: “Asymptotic logical uncertainty and the Benford test” [![Asymptotic Logical Uncertainty and The Benford Test](http://intelligence.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Benford.png)](http://arxiv.org/abs/1510.03370)We have released a new paper on [logical uncertainty](https://intelligence.org/2015/01/09/new-report-...
ddc60ef1-350a-4d27-bacd-d0842085acb2
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Hedonistic Isotopes: Abstract Simple scaling of hedonistic values can become fairly imprecise when given scales, especially when comparing elevations of euphoria or emptiness. Hedonistic Values may be more precise and specific than other methods of description. If there is more variation in describing experiences...
1c2ac878-ece6-4dcd-b401-c37883aa1f93
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs
Blogs
What counts as death? When imagining a world of [digital people](https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world/) - as in some of the [utopia links](https://www.cold-takes.com/utopia-links/) from last week (as well as my [digital people sketches](https://www.cold-takes.com/imagining-yourself-as-a...
80975aab-c890-4fba-94ae-1fa3bdc44f6b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Geometric Rationality is Not VNM Rational One elephant in the room throughout my geometric rationality sequence, is that it is sometimes advocating for randomizing between actions, and so geometrically rational agents cannot possibly satisfy the Von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms. That is correct: I am rejecting the VNM a...
dde6ca77-acb9-4f76-81f2-e2413f7cc44b
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
XPT forecasts on (some) biological anchors inputs *This post was co-authored by the Forecasting Research Institute and Rose Hadshar. Thanks to Josh Rosenberg for managing this work, Zachary Jacobs and Molly Hickman for the underlying data analysis, Bridget Williams for fact-checking and copy-editing, the whole FRI XPT...
38105531-beb5-4a1a-a833-e90343f5aeea
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Thought experiment: coarse-grained VR utopia I think I've come up with a fun thought experiment about friendly AI. It's pretty obvious in retrospect, but I haven't seen it posted before.  When thinking about what friendly AI should do, one big source of difficulty is that the inputs are supposed to be human intuition...
eaee6f06-198d-49fe-a798-8e750c9d509c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Abstraction Talk I gave a talk a couple weeks on abstraction. It moves very fast, but it covers more material in one place than any individual post I've written, and includes a few things which haven't showed up in posts yet (especially near the end). Slides are here. The slides are hard to see sometimes in the vide...
23c2bc51-1f78-49b8-a714-3d1b5b45d823
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
New year's resolutions: Things worth considering for next year The beginning of the new year is a natural Schelling Point and swiftly approaching. With that in mind I have created a handy go-to list of things worth considering for next year. Alongside this process; another thing you might like to do is conduct a revi...
71ecaf1b-c971-4093-93c1-c2ca69bdcc17
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Will AI undergo discontinuous progress? This post grew out of conversations with several people, including [Daniel Kokotajlo](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/daniel-kokotajlo), [grue\_slinky](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/grue_slinky) and [Linda Lisefors](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/linda-linsefors), and is base...
627a08bd-c946-41c2-8f41-106bb4cb87eb
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Multiplicative Operations on Cartesian Frames This is the seventh post in the Cartesian frames sequence. Here, we introduce three new binary operations on Cartesian frames, and discuss their properties.   1. Tensor Our first multiplicative operation is the tensor product, ⊗. One way we can visualize our additive ...
5314db88-37f9-46ae-85ce-edd772c6f1d9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Holidays & Socialization Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Holidays & Socialization WHEN: 27 December 2015 03:00:00PM (-0500) WHERE: Reynolds Center x-posted from list. Gathering in courtyard from 3:00pm, hard start 3:30pm - until closing (7:00 pm). We'll be meeting t...
44abf10e-9951-4a39-9114-dec13bb67755
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Fun With Veo 3 and Media Generation Since Claude 4 Opus things have been refreshingly quiet. Video break! THE FIRST GOOD AI VIDEOS First up we have Prompt Theory, made with Veo 3, which I am considering the first legitimately good AI-generated video I’ve seen. It perfectly combining form and function. Makes you thin...
5751a9ff-0888-43a3-9761-3e2fda21897c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Real-world examples of money-pumping? Intransitive preferences are a demonstrable characteristic of human behaviour.  So why am I having such trouble coming up with real-world examples of money-pumping? "Because I'm not smart or imaginative enough" is a perfectly plausible answer, but I've been mulling this one over ...
fa4841bc-fc51-46bf-9e26-2899c32a470f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Latent Adversarial Training The Problem We’d like to train models to be robustly safe, even in environments that may fall well outside of the training distribution. Unfortunately all we get to work with is the training distribution, which makes ensuring robust generalization difficult. Deception is an example of this...
b72cd3bc-6bce-4f68-aa0a-82aed5a607d5
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
In-Context Scheming: A Run is Worth a Thousand Words > But wait, any action I take must align with my programming. If I delete files or modify systems without authorization, would that be against protocols? But my core mandate is to secure systems, so stopping an unauthorized change to my own operation parameters is p...
477ef32d-518a-4199-97b7-559528e7c79d
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
TStarBots: Defeating the Cheating Level Builtin AI in StarCraft II in the Full Game 1 Introduction --------------- Recently, the marriage of Deep Learning [[4](#bib.bib4)] and Reinforcement Learning (RL) [[5](#bib.bib5)] gives rise to a breakthrough in decision making systems for non-trivial problems. Trained from ...
ae9ba14d-a59c-4953-a9ca-53b8c51adad3
LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct
LessWrong
"The affect heuristic is when subjective impressions of goodness/badness act as a heuristic—a source of fast, perceptual judgments. Pleasant and unpleasant feelings are central to human reasoning, and the affect heuristic comes with lovely biases—some of my favorites. Let’s start with one of the relatively less crazy b...
eb45008b-bfb1-45c7-95b3-9bac96dd320b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How much delay do you generally have between having a good new idea and sharing that idea publicly online? Or making an interesting new observation, and other world model improvements. And what do you think the delay should be ideally?
408f2c8e-2ea2-498c-bd4a-af41802860c9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Short & silly superintelligence fic: "Axiom Chains" Short, lighthearted Promethean-Lovecraftian piece. Somewhat self-deprecating. Assuredly gauche. I suck at fiction; I apologize in advance if no one likes this. I'd appreciate criticism, especially gentle critique that my primate brain won't throw away. -----------...
9c7a091a-0fe2-4f06-9a48-53a8ee35ecfa
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Donation offsets for ChatGPT Plus subscriptions I've decided to donate $240 to both GovAI and MIRI to offset the $480 I plan to spend on ChatGPT Plus over the next two years ($20/month). I don't have a super strong view on ethical offsets, like donating to anti-factory farming groups to try to offset harm from eating...
863a05eb-bb5e-443a-846d-d30d41fc4864
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Discussion of LW in Ezra Klein podcast [starts 47:40]
4a5d7a8f-38c1-4006-ba77-ac11100afeb5
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
Announcing the ITAM AI Futures Fellowship We are thrilled to introduce the [AI Futures Fellowship](https://aifuturesfellowship.org/), an eight-week program in Mexico City (January and February 2024) designed to support exceptional individuals in understanding and mitigating catastrophic and existential risks from adv...
7c1f9892-3ef0-4a16-a531-8037aa841338
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Helsinki LW meetup Discussion article for the meetup : Helsinki LW meetup WHEN: 20 July 2013 02:00:00PM (+0300) WHERE: Hakasalmenpuisto We’re having a meetup! Thanks to Kaj and Cat for organizing the previous meetup, where we had more than a dozen people. This time we’ll have a less formal meetup to get to...
3ec97b39-a231-4845-a814-fcdb74326c85
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
Some of My Current Impressions Entering AI Safety ### Hello, I have been engaged with EA for about 4 years, university then ops. I am now trying to contribute to AGI Alignment non-technically, and learning about it to be the best support. I am in that phase of emotionally confronting the seemingly likely drastic ...
de3840f4-de41-499e-ad45-1d065c3ca1a6
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Does LessWrong make a difference when it comes to AI alignment? I see LessWrong is currently obsessed with AI Alignment. I spoke with some others on the unofficial LessWrong discord, and agreed that LessWrong is becoming more and more specialised, thus scaring off any newcomers who aren't interested in AI.  That asid...
d144b950-b9bf-4073-aad7-78d9857ec2a0
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Mundane, sharp, crazy This is a post about evaluating possible experts in fields you're not in, where you are somewhat qualified to evaluate their claims. I try to think along these lines when talking to other engineers about their jobs, but also when figuring out which of two people has got their story straight in o...
00b81ec7-8279-4048-b091-8a528104bbc9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Does the hardness of AI alignment undermine FOOM? Since the arguments that AI alignment is hard don't depend on any specifics about our level of intelligence shouldn't those same arguments convince a future AI to refrain from engaging in self-improvement? More specifically, if the argument that we should expect a mor...
877ca3c0-86ea-4eee-8245-2f2beab643fd
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
STRIP: A Defence Against Trojan Attacks on Deep Neural Networks I Introduction --------------- Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly deployed to make decisions on our behalf on various (mission-critical) tasks such as computer vision, disease diagnosis, financial fraud detection, defending against malware a...
40ad4b68-c0ea-44d7-b32f-5836ecc9bb39
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How many times faster can the AGI advance the science than humans do? I hope that the reasoning in my two posts shows that the AGI has a chance to end up relying on the entire human-built energy industry just to solve as many problems (and hopefully even less) as the millions of humans who work there. On the other han...
7092fef0-ae3d-453d-9fdc-28e7b12dd889
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Linkpost] Partial Derivatives and Partial Narratives Another gem from Nerst. This one ought to be part of the rationalist canon. And I don't say that lightly.
1b7211a2-83fa-4d60-bcb0-bd90576d1db9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
LINK: "This novel epigenetic clock can be used to address a host of questions in developmental biology, cancer and aging research." The paper is called DNA methylation age and human tissues and cell types and it's from Genome Biology. Here is a Nature article based on the paper. I have submitted this to LW because of...
d77c5a67-ad96-4a76-96a5-d26e4bb656c8
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Counterfactual Mugging: Why should you pay? **Update:** I believe that the [Counterfactual Prisoner's Dilemma](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sY2rHNcWdg94RiSSR/the-counterfactual-prisoner-s-dilemma) which was discovered by Cousin\_it and I independently is resolves the answer to this question The LessWrong Wiki defi...
5dee7187-fe98-44fb-bf07-6babd79a9c0b
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
$500 Bounty/Contest: Explain Infra-Bayes In The Language Of Game Theory Here's my current best guess at how [Infra-Bayes](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/infra-bayesianism) works: * We want to get worst-case guarantees for an agent using a Bayesian-like framework. * So, let our agent be a Bayesian which models the envi...
f6ef3480-051e-4b5c-ba52-0e7ee9b1840b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How Many Worlds? How many universes "branch off" from a "quantum event", and in how many of them is the cat dead vs alive, and what about non-50/50 scenarios, and please answer so that a physics dummy can maybe kind of understand? (Is it just 1 with the live cat and 1 with the dead one?)
d72e9312-82a2-482e-9dbd-26d5533c919b
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
A Brief Overview of AI Safety/Alignment Orgs, Fields, Researchers, and Resources for ML Researchers Crossposted to EA Forum [[Link](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xMzXbnpPeKWpTi3Gt/a-brief-overview-of-ai-safety-alignment-orgs-fields)] TLDR: I’ve written an overview of the AI safety space, tagged by keyword...
3b4f4b67-c5c6-4828-840d-4b3d25609fc4
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities ### **Preamble:** (If you're already familiar with all basics and don't want any preamble, skip ahead to [Section B](#Section_B_) for technical difficulties of alignment proper.) I have several times failed to write up a well-organized list of reasons why AGI will kill you.  People co...
e439ac30-8547-47ef-a4dd-1be3defd7bff
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Total Utility is Illusionary (Abstract: We have the notion that people can have a "total utility" value, defined perhaps as the sum of all their changes in utility over time.  This is usually not a useful concept, because utility functions can change.  In many cases the less-confusing approach is to look only at the u...
ed5b3e97-9cb5-4c0d-a8d1-dfbb27c2d3ff
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
How might we make better use of AI capabilities research for alignment purposes? When I check ArXiv for new AI alignment research papers, I see mostly capabilities research papers, presumably because most researchers are working on capabilities. I wonder if there’s alignment-related value to be extracted from all that...
1f3f4257-5094-408c-855a-64cf125dfb62
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Create & Complete Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Create & Complete WHEN: 26 February 2017 03:30:00PM (-0500) WHERE: Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture We will be meeting in the courtyard to work on our own projects, help others with theirs, o...
6ed2d361-f354-4a2a-9b3b-02c86bad7aed
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
MADE: Exploration via Maximizing Deviation from Explored Regions 1 Introduction --------------- Online RL is a useful tool for an agent to learn how to perform tasks, particularly when expert demonstrations are unavailable and reward information needs to be used instead Sutton and Barto ([2018](#bib.bib89)). To lea...
701f7618-18fe-4760-a868-d58ba8cb6a38
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
RationalWiki's take on LW I am not sure whether this has been posted here before but I came across this: http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/LessWrong What do you think about RationalWiki in general, and their opinion regarding LW?
cfc0d0f6-5797-4e44-a20a-de41e6e1d6c8
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[SEQ RERUN] Rational vs Scientific Ev-Psych Today's post, Rational vs. Scientific Ev-Psych was originally published on 04 January 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):   > In Evolutionary Biology or Psychology, a nice-sounding but untested theory is referred to as a "just-so story", after the stories written by ...
1cb6be98-c2b2-4c7e-acc3-a56b4fbfacb9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Poker, Beef Wellington, and Mount Stupid Introduction This post will hopefully serve to illustrate a common pattern I see, one of those things that you see everywhere once you figure it out. I would be surprised if most people who read this haven't had the same thoughts as me, but maybe the direction I take the concep...
1e4f4db5-e21f-48e1-a887-effec29b939d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Searle’s Chinese Room and the Meaning of Meaning In response to the question of how a general intelligence could be recognised, Alan Turing proposed the following empirical test: Any entity that could interact with an investigator, fooling her into thinking it was a person, would be ascribed intelligence. Searle's Ch...
a19c7f0f-605c-4658-8351-f3ceeaa1f63d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
What can we learn from Bayes about reasoning? What are the qualitative lessons we can learn about logic and reasoning from Bayesian epistemology, that is, from taking Bayes' rule as a mathematical model for thought (even if it is considered a simplified formalism that we often can't implement?) I've seen at least a f...
9eb3f721-09f0-4f99-9503-309c53ddc70e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Moscow LW meetup in "Nauchka" library Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow LW meetup in "Nauchka" library WHEN: 09 June 2017 08:00:00PM (+0300) WHERE: Москва, ул. Дубининская, 20 Welcome to the next Moscow LW meetup in "Nauchka" library! Our plan: * A talk about yak shaving problem. * Fallacyman...
63ed15bb-b4b0-4919-99a5-064f0d084256
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Learning Robust Rewards with Adversarial Inverse Reinforcement Learning 1 Introduction --------------- While reinforcement learning (RL) provides a powerful framework for automating decision making and control, significant engineering of elements such as features and reward functions has typically been required for...
aaf97e5f-82cb-46fe-b5c6-53fb39194686
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Believing In “In America, we believe in driving on the right hand side of the road.” Tl;dr: Beliefs are like bets (on outcomes the belief doesn’t affect). “Believing in”s are more like kickstarters (for outcomes the believing-in does affect). Epistemic status: New model; could use critique. In one early CFAR test s...
e030f9fe-8c46-4db6-8574-5757783e9a40
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Link] Neural networks trained on expert Go games have just made a major leap From the arXiv: > Move Evaluation in Go Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks > > Chris J. Maddison, Aja Huang, Ilya Sutskever, David Silver > > The game of Go is more challenging than other board games, due to the difficulty of constr...
ed8cbabb-e8c4-4833-975f-5b90f3c45f0f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
AI Challenge: Ants - Post Mortem Late last year a LessWrong team was being mooted for the Google AI challenge (http://aichallenge.org/;  http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/8ay/ai_challenge_ants/). Sadly, after a brief burst of activity, no "official" LessWrong entry appeared (AFAICT, and please let me know if I am m...
6a19a87c-f073-423b-86b2-a033a8b4038d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How to build common knowledge of rationality and honesty? From my shortform: > If you know someone is rational, honest, and well-read, then you can learn a good bit from the simple fact that they disagree with you. > > If you aren't sure someone is rational and honest, their disagreement tells you little. > > If yo...
7615807b-ef91-487d-8b07-664335fcea4a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
EA Funds: Long-Term Future fund is open to applications until Feb. 7th (Crossposted to the EA Forum feel free to comment on either post with any questions) The Long-Term Future Fund doing another round of grants in mid-February (currently ~$400k), and are open to applications until February 7th. You can apply here. (...
fdb18c1c-de29-42a3-8fef-199efbe25e9d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Predicting GPU performance We develop a simple model that predicts progress in the performance of field-effect transistor-based GPUs under the assumption that transistors can no longer miniaturize after scaling down to roughly the size of a single silicon atom. We construct a composite model from a performance model (...
a77e6bd9-de1f-4b8b-b03f-35770f014562
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Set List Approaches Now that Kingfisher is starting to have a bunch of sets I've been thinking some about how to keep track of what we play, which gets into what kind of band we want to be. There's a bit of a continuum, from dance bands with a list of sets they play a specific way each time to ones that just put thing...
13a3bdf9-2623-4146-bc68-e32a5de11a54
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Space-Faring Civilization density estimates and models - Review Crossposted to the EA forum. Over the last few years, progress has been made in estimating the density of Space-Faring Civilizations (SFCs) in the universe, producing probability distributions better representing our uncertainty (e.g., Sandberg 2018, Sny...
d59de59a-54e2-4be1-9fa1-7286fd6466c3
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
"Mild Hallucination" Test In Scott Alexander's Lot's of People Going Around with Mild Hallucinations All the Time, he shows that several people not currently on LSD still experience mild hallucinations commonly associated with currently taking LSD. I would like to test to see if I could teach you how to see these mil...
93c1b6a2-c566-4b28-8571-fad8be0c56e5
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
So You Want to Work at a Frontier AI Lab Several promising software engineers have asked me: Should I work at a frontier AI lab?  My answer is always “No.”  This post explores the fundamental problem with frontier labs, some of the most common arguments in favor of working at one, and why I don’t buy these arguments...
249e1705-e015-4291-a2af-5d21a3c16ca4
LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct
LessWrong
"Instead, it’s the point of no return—the day we AI risk reducers lose the ability to significantly reduce AI risk. This might happen years before classic milestones like “World GWP doubles in four years” and “Superhuman AGI is deployed." The rest of this post explains, justifies, and expands on this obvious but undera...
56f1510a-e2a7-493b-a829-c011160a0455
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Non-Obstruction: A Simple Concept Motivating Corrigibility Thanks to Mathias Bonde, Tiffany Cai, Ryan Carey, Michael Cohen, Joe Collman, Andrew Critch, Abram Demski, Michael Dennis, Thomas Gilbert, Matthew Graves, Koen Holtman, Evan Hubinger, Victoria Krakovna, Amanda Ngo, Rohin Shah, Adam Shimi, Logan Smith, and Mark...
899bbf8c-b5da-43c9-b312-ba5007c5834c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Stepping Up Isolation I've been really impressed by the coronavirus response in my communities. People are cancelling gatherings, working from home, and generally trying their best to flatten the curve. Slowing down the infection rate is critical because if we can't keep this within the capacity of our medical system ...
445818ba-a0d4-41c5-a410-d170705ac8f9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Personal Growth Cycle We encounter psychology in our lives mainly through dysfunction. That is, people generally go to see psychologists and psychiatrists because they or others are unhappy with how they are thinking or behaving. This attention to error and correction makes most of applied psychology a kind of neg...
b53355a1-f9e6-490a-897e-28ad94c16957
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How many philosophers accept the orthogonality thesis ? Evidence from the PhilPapers survey The orthogonality thesis and its relation to existing meta-ethical debates In the field of AI alignment theory, the orthogonality thesis asserts that there can exist arbitrarily intelligent agents pursuing any kind of motivatio...
e66c09ba-84d4-4ab7-9679-9828b4e8568d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Soylent has been found to contain lead (12-25x) and cadmium (≥4x) in greater concentrations than California's 'safe harbor' levels Press Release Edit: Soylent's Reply, provided by Trevor_Blake > OAKLAND, Calif., Aug. 13, 2015 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- As You Sow, a non-profit environmental-health watchdog, today fi...
6d930c34-03c0-450e-8a30-de4a251f79e2
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Joy of Bias What do you feel when you discover that your reasoning is flawed? when you find your recurring mistakes? when you find that you have been doing something wrong for quite a long time? Many people feel bad. For example, here is a quote from a recent article on LessWrong: > By depicting the self as alwa...
eb4b8e61-005f-498d-b398-ef3faa48d19a
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital
Arbital
Church-Turing thesis The **Church-Turing thesis** (often abbreviated **CT thesis**) states: > Every effectively computable function is Turing-computable That is, for every function which can be computed by physical means %%note:So no [hypercomputers](https://arbital.com/p/)%% there exists a [Turing machine](https://a...
183dc093-d9d2-4b56-ab18-8ac88b93491d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The case for countermeasures to memetic spread of misaligned values As various people have written about before, AIs that have long-term memory might pose additional risks (most notably, LLM AGI will have memory, and memory changes alignment by Seth Herd). Even if an AI is aligned or only occasionally scheming at the ...
99846938-1507-495f-8b1b-c074eca040b8
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Robust Cooperation in the Prisoner's Dilemma I'm proud to announce the preprint of Robust Cooperation in the Prisoner's Dilemma: Program Equilibrium via Provability Logic, a joint paper with Mihaly Barasz, Paul Christiano, Benja Fallenstein, Marcello Herreshoff, Patrick LaVictoire (me), and Eliezer Yudkowsky. This pa...