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fff3436c-7de5-4b4d-bd43-c91ff64e6c44 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Rational Consensus
1 Introduction
---------------
Consensus is a fundamental problem in distributed computing;
it plays a key role in state machine replication,
transaction commitment,
and many other tasks where agreement among processes is required.
It is well known that consensus cannot be
deterministically
achie... |
12535c37-bd7a-4891-984e-29ae72a1bb59 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hassa Deega Ebowai or the paradox of religiousness in front of adversity
Hasa Diga Ebowai (["Does it mean "no worries for the rest of our lives?"" *"Kinda"*](http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=AhxChl9bGl0)) is a song from Trey Parker and Matt Stone's "The Book of Mormon", an affectionate parody of r... |
07537ba9-b4c9-48a7-ab11-5f31151d79a5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A sketch of acausal trade in practice
One implication of functional decision theory is that it might be possible to coordinate across causally-disconnected regions of the universe. This possibility has been variously known as acausal trade, multiverse-wide cooperation via superrationality (MSR), or evidential cooperat... |
8b9f7278-c291-467f-86d4-c525517d4b02 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Atlanta
Discussion article for the meetup : Atlanta
WHEN: 17 March 2012 06:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 2094 North Decatur Road, Decatur, GA 30033-5367
The next meetup will be Saturday, March 17th at 6:30pm at Chocolate Coffee in Decatur:
http://www.mychocolatecoffee.com/
2094 North Decatur Road, Decatur, G... |
0b657e1c-00fb-4f55-9f0d-0277574a8d1b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Superintelligence 24: Morality models and "do what I mean"
This is part of a weekly reading group on Nick Bostrom's book, Superintelligence. For more information about the group, and an index of posts so far see the announcement post. For the schedule of future topics, see MIRI's reading guide.
----------------------... |
e70badd7-8d67-4aae-9cef-d7d9a12a1e80 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Optimization Correct?
1. Is Optimization Correct?
The risk of "optimization" has long been recognized in AI alignment, such as the problems of instrumental convergence (Bostrom 2014). Nevertheless, it is difficult for AI designers to escape from the engineering concept of "optimization" because the concept of "op... |
d964b4d1-ff7d-4cf4-9de7-655d8db8f175 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | England & Wales & Windfalls
*Another huge thanks to Holly Scott, Aryan Yadav, Jide Alaga, Cullen O’Keefe, Haydn Bellfield and Peter Wills. This post has been greatly improved thanks to all your helpful feedback.*
---
This is the third post in ‘[Towards a Worldwide, Watertight Windfall Clause](https://forum.effecti... |
f99b13c7-ae2f-4214-849d-bc9dae97063e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Aligning my web server with devops practices: part 1 (backups)
UPDATE: Part 2 is now published here.
I have a web server that serves a double-digit number of different domains and subdomains, such as contractwork.vipulnaik.com and groupprops.subwiki.org. I originally set it up in 2013, and more recently upgraded it a... |
9ace34ce-d996-4d5e-ae5a-0387dea7ef03 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Gradient – The Artificiality of Alignment
The Gradient is a “digital publication about artificial intelligence and the future,” founded by researchers at the Stanford Artificial Intelligence Laboratory. I found the latest essay, “The Artificiality of Intelligence,” by a PhD student at UC Berkeley, to be an interes... |
d58274d9-f7bb-4810-823f-7fe931b07779 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Dario Amodei’s prepared remarks from the UK AI Safety Summit, on Anthropic’s Responsible Scaling Policy
*I hope Dario's remarks to the Summit can shed some light on how we think about RSPs in general and Anthropic's RSP in particular, both of which have been discussed extensively since [I shared our RSP announcement](... |
d23e16a2-ee97-438c-a0be-4fe3b0afc788 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Constituency-sized AI congress?
I just had the idea for a constituency-sized AI congress. Each member of the constituency would have their personal debate agent trained on their preferences and values. The agents would debate tirelessly at superhuman speed to develop proposals which represented the best available win-... |
48b6a2f9-7d88-4b32-9e43-4cefa88fad96 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are good ML/AI related prediction / calibration questions for 2019?
I'm trying to come up with a set of questions for self-calibration, related to AI and ML.
I've written down what I've come up with so far below. But I am principally interested in what other people come up with -- thus the question metatype -- b... |
44947d7b-afa6-469d-afcb-52e9150509cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Partial rewrite of the "Direct Instruction" thing
So yeah, "Scientifically optimizing education: Hard problem, or solved problem? Introducing the Theory of Direct Instruction". Probably not gonna go down in history as my best piece of writing ever, to say the least.
Clearly I need to fix that. As an initial measure, ... |
a6072035-6517-443a-9a78-41c7a60f356b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Implications of the Doomsday Argument for x-risk reduction
Lesswrong contains a large intersection of people who are interested in x-risk reduction and people who are aware of the Doomsday Argument. Yet these two things seem to be incompatible with each other, so I'm going to ask about the elephant in the room:
What ... |
1b134145-609d-4b8a-b9ad-6e729c95de79 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I have had the following situation happen several times during my research career: I write code to analyze data; there is some expectation about what the results will be; after running the program, the results are not what was expected; I go back and carefully check the code to make sure there are no errors; sometimes... |
b0059f09-2daf-41c0-96d6-f924642a8dd4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What happens with logical induction when...
So this is a bunch of related technical questions about logical induction.
Firstly, do you need the formal theorem prover section? Can you just throw out the formal theorem prover, but give some programs in the market unbounded capital and get the same resultant behaviou... |
464da42d-ad4a-419e-a075-ed4cada272d4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The longest training run
**In short:** Training runs of large Machine Learning systems are likely to last less than 14-15 months. This is because longer runs will be outcompeted by runs that start later and therefore use better hardware and better algorithms. [Edited 2022/09/22 to fix an error in the hardware improvem... |
426d3847-877b-4300-b0c7-5a754dfc4d22 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Out-of-body reasoning (OOBR)
The abbreviated title is a pun on "über". As the über-theory, it has to be believed, right?
Outline
I'd like to suck all of the joy and intrigue out of Sleeping Beauty and related problems by claiming that a rational agent always, boringly, makes decisions thus:
* Assume a God-like "o... |
b526e3e7-8bc4-4123-988a-141d6bb6d8ec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Legends of Runeterra: Early Review
Legends of Runeterra has been getting a generally favorable reception. The game is highly relevant to my interests as someone who plays a lot of collectible card games and is making a collectible card game of my own called Emergents, together with Brian David-Marshall, that will be r... |
8e0a4bf1-4591-48b5-85c2-34b323937c7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deriving techniques on the fly
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/deriving-techniques-on-the-fly/
----------------------------------------
Last year Lachlan Cannon came back from a CFAR reunion and commented that instead of just having the CFAR skills we need the derivative skills. The skills that say, "I need ... |
0adc27d4-d57a-49ed-9f37-c589472ce508 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2020 Review: Final Voting
Click here to begin voting. Click here for a general overview of the 2020 Review.
We're now in the final week of the LessWrong 2020 Review. We've had over a month of preliminary voting and discussion. Now it's time to finalize our votes. In this post I cover how to vote, why to vote, and wha... |
16c05bb4-b37c-45d0-bc7e-e7291319dd45 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sex, Death, and Complexity
Cancer can be understood as evolution within the body. Cancer is a mutation, and that mutation is selected for, while the body is alive. The cancer cells are more "successful" than other cells, because they are selfish reproducers. They out-compete other cells for the resources of the body.
... |
b5a85e09-8def-4526-b931-75dc1f1938cd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Capping AGI profits
Introduction
------------
Beyond the many concerns around AI alignment, the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) also raises concerns about the concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a few corporations. While I’m very glad to see people working on avoiding worst-case-sce... |
f22bd0a8-d098-49cb-841d-666cfc7cdb28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne, practical rationality
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne, practical rationality
WHEN: 07 June 2013 07:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 491 King Street, West Melbourne VIC 3003, Australia
NOTE: We've moved a stone's throw from our old office. Note the new address (which is unchanged from May, bu... |
c48b624d-0c4f-4ca6-99cb-35fff9d124c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Post AGI effect prediction
What differentiate us from AI?
Human's sense of meaning usually are derived from feeling special, on an individual or collective basis. We want to prove ourselves different through tastes, hobbies, and career choices. Difference also show through collective culture and individual values. Bio... |
8e5bed4b-da9b-46f8-97fa-d5766edd83bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ethical and incentive-compatible way to share finances with partner when you both work?
My partner and I have been living together for a year. We currently share our finances to some extent (we have our own bank accounts, but have a shared credit card). I've been thinking about how our current system can be made more ... |
1f90e7c7-c621-4170-b20d-108e082c8824 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Hierarchical Optimal Transport for Comparing Histopathology Datasets
1 Introduction
---------------
Histopathology images are routinely used in the diagnostic workup of many cancers. Beyond the standard identification of tumor grade and subtype, histopathology images also contain an abundance of visual information ... |
1209eec5-4375-46e6-984d-dc65bb702052 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Principles for Alignment/Agency Projects
"John, what do you think of this idea for an alignment research project?"
I get questions like that fairly regularly. How do I go about answering? What principles guide my evaluation? Not all of my intuitions for what makes a project valuable can easily be made legible, but I ... |
fd060e8b-0914-4c84-bead-78425316eaaa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] Speed is the New Intelligence
From Scott Adams Blog
The article really is about speeding up government, but the key point is speed as a component of smart:
> A smart friend told me recently that speed is the new intelligence, at least for some types of technology jobs. If you are hiring an interface designer... |
57a4b5a2-8ca8-42f4-877a-38e1582dbe1e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Have we really forsaken natural selection?
Natural selection is often charged with having goals for humanity, and humanity is often charged with falling down on them. The big accusation, I think, is of sub-maximal procreation. If we cared at all about the genetic proliferation that natural selection wanted for us, the... |
cf370eb4-55e2-4567-9b80-348a3e6e9dd6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to solve deception and still fail.
A mostly finished post I'm kicking out the door. You'll get the gist.
I
There's a tempting picture of alignment that centers on the feeling of "As long as humans stay in control, it will be okay." Humans staying in control, in this picture, is something like humans giving lots ... |
f1e9e5c2-1270-4eb5-a6c5-56c4220b013d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Difficulty classes for alignment properties
I don't think this idea is particularly novel, but it comes up often in conversations I have, so I figured it'd be good to write it up.
How do you prevent deception from AI systems?
One obvious thing to try would be to make sure that your model never thinks deceptive thoug... |
3954b5d2-de19-4c3f-b768-c874dc23e6b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SIA fears (expected) infinity
It's well known that the Self-Indication Assumption (SIA) has problems with infinite populations (one of the reasons I strongly recommend not using the probability as the fundamental object of interest, but instead the decision, as in anthropic decision theory).
SIA also has problems wit... |
3a82a0ea-62a0-4260-8c26-a2f86d6005aa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | New paper: “Asymptotic logical uncertainty and the Benford test”
[](http://arxiv.org/abs/1510.03370)We have released a new paper on [logical uncertainty](https://intelligence.org/2015/01/09/new-report-... |
ddc60ef1-350a-4d27-bacd-d0842085acb2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hedonistic Isotopes:
Abstract
Simple scaling of hedonistic values can become fairly imprecise when given scales, especially when comparing elevations of euphoria or emptiness. Hedonistic Values may be more precise and specific than other methods of description. If there is more variation in describing experiences... |
1c2ac878-ece6-4dcd-b401-c37883aa1f93 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | What counts as death?
When imagining a world of [digital people](https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-people-could-change-the-world/) - as in some of the [utopia links](https://www.cold-takes.com/utopia-links/) from last week (as well as my [digital people sketches](https://www.cold-takes.com/imagining-yourself-as-a... |
80975aab-c890-4fba-94ae-1fa3bdc44f6b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Geometric Rationality is Not VNM Rational
One elephant in the room throughout my geometric rationality sequence, is that it is sometimes advocating for randomizing between actions, and so geometrically rational agents cannot possibly satisfy the Von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms. That is correct: I am rejecting the VNM a... |
dde6ca77-acb9-4f76-81f2-e2413f7cc44b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | XPT forecasts on (some) biological anchors inputs
*This post was co-authored by the Forecasting Research Institute and Rose Hadshar. Thanks to Josh Rosenberg for managing this work, Zachary Jacobs and Molly Hickman for the underlying data analysis, Bridget Williams for fact-checking and copy-editing, the whole FRI XPT... |
38105531-beb5-4a1a-a833-e90343f5aeea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thought experiment: coarse-grained VR utopia
I think I've come up with a fun thought experiment about friendly AI. It's pretty obvious in retrospect, but I haven't seen it posted before.
When thinking about what friendly AI should do, one big source of difficulty is that the inputs are supposed to be human intuition... |
eaee6f06-198d-49fe-a798-8e750c9d509c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Abstraction Talk
I gave a talk a couple weeks on abstraction. It moves very fast, but it covers more material in one place than any individual post I've written, and includes a few things which haven't showed up in posts yet (especially near the end).
Slides are here. The slides are hard to see sometimes in the vide... |
23c2bc51-1f78-49b8-a714-3d1b5b45d823 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New year's resolutions: Things worth considering for next year
The beginning of the new year is a natural Schelling Point and swiftly approaching. With that in mind I have created a handy go-to list of things worth considering for next year.
Alongside this process; another thing you might like to do is conduct a revi... |
71ecaf1b-c971-4093-93c1-c2ca69bdcc17 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Will AI undergo discontinuous progress?
This post grew out of conversations with several people, including [Daniel Kokotajlo](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/daniel-kokotajlo), [grue\_slinky](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/grue_slinky) and [Linda Lisefors](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/linda-linsefors), and is base... |
627a08bd-c946-41c2-8f41-106bb4cb87eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Multiplicative Operations on Cartesian Frames
This is the seventh post in the Cartesian frames sequence.
Here, we introduce three new binary operations on Cartesian frames, and discuss their properties.
1. Tensor
Our first multiplicative operation is the tensor product, ⊗.
One way we can visualize our additive ... |
5314db88-37f9-46ae-85ce-edd772c6f1d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Holidays & Socialization
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Holidays & Socialization
WHEN: 27 December 2015 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Reynolds Center
x-posted from list. Gathering in courtyard from 3:00pm, hard start 3:30pm - until closing (7:00 pm).
We'll be meeting t... |
44abf10e-9951-4a39-9114-dec13bb67755 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fun With Veo 3 and Media Generation
Since Claude 4 Opus things have been refreshingly quiet. Video break!
THE FIRST GOOD AI VIDEOS
First up we have Prompt Theory, made with Veo 3, which I am considering the first legitimately good AI-generated video I’ve seen. It perfectly combining form and function. Makes you thin... |
5751a9ff-0888-43a3-9761-3e2fda21897c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Real-world examples of money-pumping?
Intransitive preferences are a demonstrable characteristic of human behaviour. So why am I having such trouble coming up with real-world examples of money-pumping?
"Because I'm not smart or imaginative enough" is a perfectly plausible answer, but I've been mulling this one over ... |
fa4841bc-fc51-46bf-9e26-2899c32a470f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Latent Adversarial Training
The Problem
We’d like to train models to be robustly safe, even in environments that may fall well outside of the training distribution. Unfortunately all we get to work with is the training distribution, which makes ensuring robust generalization difficult.
Deception is an example of this... |
b72cd3bc-6bce-4f68-aa0a-82aed5a607d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In-Context Scheming: A Run is Worth a Thousand Words
> But wait, any action I take must align with my programming. If I delete files or modify systems without authorization, would that be against protocols? But my core mandate is to secure systems, so stopping an unauthorized change to my own operation parameters is p... |
477ef32d-518a-4199-97b7-559528e7c79d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | TStarBots: Defeating the Cheating Level Builtin AI in StarCraft II in the Full Game
1 Introduction
---------------
Recently, the marriage of Deep Learning [[4](#bib.bib4)] and Reinforcement Learning (RL) [[5](#bib.bib5)] gives rise to a breakthrough in decision making systems for non-trivial problems.
Trained from ... |
ae9ba14d-a59c-4953-a9ca-53b8c51adad3 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "The affect heuristic is when subjective impressions of goodness/badness act as a heuristic—a source of fast, perceptual judgments. Pleasant and unpleasant feelings are central to human reasoning, and the affect heuristic comes with lovely biases—some of my favorites. Let’s start with one of the relatively less crazy b... |
eb45008b-bfb1-45c7-95b3-9bac96dd320b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How much delay do you generally have between having a good new idea and sharing that idea publicly online?
Or making an interesting new observation, and other world model improvements.
And what do you think the delay should be ideally? |
408f2c8e-2ea2-498c-bd4a-af41802860c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Short & silly superintelligence fic: "Axiom Chains"
Short, lighthearted Promethean-Lovecraftian piece. Somewhat self-deprecating. Assuredly gauche. I suck at fiction; I apologize in advance if no one likes this. I'd appreciate criticism, especially gentle critique that my primate brain won't throw away.
-----------... |
9c7a091a-0fe2-4f06-9a48-53a8ee35ecfa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Donation offsets for ChatGPT Plus subscriptions
I've decided to donate $240 to both GovAI and MIRI to offset the $480 I plan to spend on ChatGPT Plus over the next two years ($20/month).
I don't have a super strong view on ethical offsets, like donating to anti-factory farming groups to try to offset harm from eating... |
863a05eb-bb5e-443a-846d-d30d41fc4864 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Discussion of LW in Ezra Klein podcast [starts 47:40]
|
4a5d7a8f-38c1-4006-ba77-ac11100afeb5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Announcing the ITAM AI Futures Fellowship
We are thrilled to introduce the [AI Futures Fellowship](https://aifuturesfellowship.org/), an eight-week program in Mexico City (January and February 2024) designed to support exceptional individuals in understanding and mitigating catastrophic and existential risks from adv... |
7c1f9892-3ef0-4a16-a531-8037aa841338 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Helsinki LW meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Helsinki LW meetup
WHEN: 20 July 2013 02:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Hakasalmenpuisto
We’re having a meetup! Thanks to Kaj and Cat for organizing the previous meetup, where we had more than a dozen people. This time we’ll have a less formal meetup to get to... |
3ec97b39-a231-4845-a814-fcdb74326c85 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Some of My Current Impressions Entering AI Safety
### Hello,
I have been engaged with EA for about 4 years, university then ops. I am now trying to contribute to AGI Alignment non-technically, and learning about it to be the best support.
I am in that phase of emotionally confronting the seemingly likely drastic ... |
de3840f4-de41-499e-ad45-1d065c3ca1a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does LessWrong make a difference when it comes to AI alignment?
I see LessWrong is currently obsessed with AI Alignment. I spoke with some others on the unofficial LessWrong discord, and agreed that LessWrong is becoming more and more specialised, thus scaring off any newcomers who aren't interested in AI.
That asid... |
d144b950-b9bf-4073-aad7-78d9857ec2a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mundane, sharp, crazy
This is a post about evaluating possible experts in fields you're not in, where you are somewhat qualified to evaluate their claims.
I try to think along these lines when talking to other engineers about their jobs, but also when figuring out which of two people has got their story straight in o... |
00b81ec7-8279-4048-b091-8a528104bbc9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does the hardness of AI alignment undermine FOOM?
Since the arguments that AI alignment is hard don't depend on any specifics about our level of intelligence shouldn't those same arguments convince a future AI to refrain from engaging in self-improvement?
More specifically, if the argument that we should expect a mor... |
877ca3c0-86ea-4eee-8245-2f2beab643fd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | STRIP: A Defence Against Trojan Attacks on Deep Neural Networks
I Introduction
---------------
Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly deployed to make decisions on our behalf on various (mission-critical) tasks such as computer vision, disease diagnosis, financial fraud detection, defending against malware a... |
40ad4b68-c0ea-44d7-b32f-5836ecc9bb39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How many times faster can the AGI advance the science than humans do?
I hope that the reasoning in my two posts shows that the AGI has a chance to end up relying on the entire human-built energy industry just to solve as many problems (and hopefully even less) as the millions of humans who work there. On the other han... |
7092fef0-ae3d-453d-9fdc-28e7b12dd889 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Partial Derivatives and Partial Narratives
Another gem from Nerst. This one ought to be part of the rationalist canon. And I don't say that lightly. |
1b7211a2-83fa-4d60-bcb0-bd90576d1db9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LINK: "This novel epigenetic clock can be used to address a host of questions in developmental biology, cancer and aging research."
The paper is called DNA methylation age and human tissues and cell types and it's from Genome Biology. Here is a Nature article based on the paper.
I have submitted this to LW because of... |
d77c5a67-ad96-4a76-96a5-d26e4bb656c8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Counterfactual Mugging: Why should you pay?
**Update:** I believe that the [Counterfactual Prisoner's Dilemma](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sY2rHNcWdg94RiSSR/the-counterfactual-prisoner-s-dilemma) which was discovered by Cousin\_it and I independently is resolves the answer to this question
The LessWrong Wiki defi... |
5dee7187-fe98-44fb-bf07-6babd79a9c0b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | $500 Bounty/Contest: Explain Infra-Bayes In The Language Of Game Theory
Here's my current best guess at how [Infra-Bayes](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/infra-bayesianism) works:
* We want to get worst-case guarantees for an agent using a Bayesian-like framework.
* So, let our agent be a Bayesian which models the envi... |
f6ef3480-051e-4b5c-ba52-0e7ee9b1840b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Many Worlds?
How many universes "branch off" from a "quantum event", and in how many of them is the cat dead vs alive, and what about non-50/50 scenarios, and please answer so that a physics dummy can maybe kind of understand?
(Is it just 1 with the live cat and 1 with the dead one?) |
d72e9312-82a2-482e-9dbd-26d5533c919b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A Brief Overview of AI Safety/Alignment Orgs, Fields, Researchers, and Resources for ML Researchers
Crossposted to EA Forum [[Link](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/xMzXbnpPeKWpTi3Gt/a-brief-overview-of-ai-safety-alignment-orgs-fields)]
TLDR: I’ve written an overview of the AI safety space, tagged by keyword... |
3b4f4b67-c5c6-4828-840d-4b3d25609fc4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities
### **Preamble:**
(If you're already familiar with all basics and don't want any preamble, skip ahead to [Section B](#Section_B_) for technical difficulties of alignment proper.)
I have several times failed to write up a well-organized list of reasons why AGI will kill you. People co... |
e439ac30-8547-47ef-a4dd-1be3defd7bff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Total Utility is Illusionary
(Abstract: We have the notion that people can have a "total utility" value, defined perhaps as the sum of all their changes in utility over time. This is usually not a useful concept, because utility functions can change. In many cases the less-confusing approach is to look only at the u... |
ed5b3e97-9cb5-4c0d-a8d1-dfbb27c2d3ff | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | How might we make better use of AI capabilities research for alignment purposes?
When I check ArXiv for new AI alignment research papers, I see mostly capabilities research papers, presumably because most researchers are working on capabilities. I wonder if there’s alignment-related value to be extracted from all that... |
1f3f4257-5094-408c-855a-64cf125dfb62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Create & Complete
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Create & Complete
WHEN: 26 February 2017 03:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture
We will be meeting in the courtyard to work on our own projects, help others with theirs, o... |
6ed2d361-f354-4a2a-9b3b-02c86bad7aed | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | MADE: Exploration via Maximizing Deviation from Explored Regions
1 Introduction
---------------
Online RL is a useful tool for an agent to learn how to perform tasks, particularly when expert demonstrations are unavailable and reward information needs to be used instead Sutton and Barto ([2018](#bib.bib89)). To lea... |
701f7618-18fe-4760-a868-d58ba8cb6a38 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | RationalWiki's take on LW
I am not sure whether this has been posted here before but I came across this: http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/LessWrong
What do you think about RationalWiki in general, and their opinion regarding LW? |
cfc0d0f6-5797-4e44-a20a-de41e6e1d6c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Rational vs Scientific Ev-Psych
Today's post, Rational vs. Scientific Ev-Psych was originally published on 04 January 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> In Evolutionary Biology or Psychology, a nice-sounding but untested theory is referred to as a "just-so story", after the stories written by ... |
1cb6be98-c2b2-4c7e-acc3-a56b4fbfacb9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Poker, Beef Wellington, and Mount Stupid
Introduction
This post will hopefully serve to illustrate a common pattern I see, one of those things that you see everywhere once you figure it out. I would be surprised if most people who read this haven't had the same thoughts as me, but maybe the direction I take the concep... |
1e4f4db5-e21f-48e1-a887-effec29b939d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Searle’s Chinese Room and the Meaning of Meaning
In response to the question of how a general intelligence could be recognised, Alan Turing proposed the following empirical test: Any entity that could interact with an investigator, fooling her into thinking it was a person, would be ascribed intelligence.
Searle's Ch... |
a19c7f0f-605c-4658-8351-f3ceeaa1f63d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What can we learn from Bayes about reasoning?
What are the qualitative lessons we can learn about logic and reasoning from Bayesian epistemology, that is, from taking Bayes' rule as a mathematical model for thought (even if it is considered a simplified formalism that we often can't implement?)
I've seen at least a f... |
9eb3f721-09f0-4f99-9503-309c53ddc70e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow LW meetup in "Nauchka" library
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow LW meetup in "Nauchka" library
WHEN: 09 June 2017 08:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Москва, ул. Дубининская, 20
Welcome to the next Moscow LW meetup in "Nauchka" library!
Our plan:
* A talk about yak shaving problem.
* Fallacyman... |
63ed15bb-b4b0-4919-99a5-064f0d084256 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Learning Robust Rewards with Adversarial Inverse Reinforcement Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
While reinforcement learning (RL) provides a powerful framework for automating decision making and control, significant engineering of elements such as features and reward functions has typically been required for... |
aaf97e5f-82cb-46fe-b5c6-53fb39194686 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Believing In
“In America, we believe in driving on the right hand side of the road.”
Tl;dr: Beliefs are like bets (on outcomes the belief doesn’t affect). “Believing in”s are more like kickstarters (for outcomes the believing-in does affect).
Epistemic status: New model; could use critique.
In one early CFAR test s... |
e030f9fe-8c46-4db6-8574-5757783e9a40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Neural networks trained on expert Go games have just made a major leap
From the arXiv:
> Move Evaluation in Go Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks
>
> Chris J. Maddison, Aja Huang, Ilya Sutskever, David Silver
>
> The game of Go is more challenging than other board games, due to the difficulty of constr... |
ed8cbabb-e8c4-4833-975f-5b90f3c45f0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Challenge: Ants - Post Mortem
Late last year a LessWrong team was being mooted for the Google AI challenge (http://aichallenge.org/; http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/8ay/ai_challenge_ants/). Sadly, after a brief burst of activity, no "official" LessWrong entry appeared (AFAICT, and please let me know if I am m... |
6a19a87c-f073-423b-86b2-a033a8b4038d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to build common knowledge of rationality and honesty?
From my shortform:
> If you know someone is rational, honest, and well-read, then you can learn a good bit from the simple fact that they disagree with you.
>
> If you aren't sure someone is rational and honest, their disagreement tells you little.
>
> If yo... |
7615807b-ef91-487d-8b07-664335fcea4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA Funds: Long-Term Future fund is open to applications until Feb. 7th
(Crossposted to the EA Forum feel free to comment on either post with any questions)
The Long-Term Future Fund doing another round of grants in mid-February (currently ~$400k), and are open to applications until February 7th. You can apply here. (... |
fdb18c1c-de29-42a3-8fef-199efbe25e9d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Predicting GPU performance
We develop a simple model that predicts progress in the performance of field-effect transistor-based GPUs under the assumption that transistors can no longer miniaturize after scaling down to roughly the size of a single silicon atom. We construct a composite model from a performance model (... |
a77e6bd9-de1f-4b8b-b03f-35770f014562 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Set List Approaches
Now that Kingfisher is starting to have a bunch of sets I've been thinking some about how to keep track of what we play, which gets into what kind of band we want to be. There's a bit of a continuum, from dance bands with a list of sets they play a specific way each time to ones that just put thing... |
13a3bdf9-2623-4146-bc68-e32a5de11a54 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Space-Faring Civilization density estimates and models - Review
Crossposted to the EA forum.
Over the last few years, progress has been made in estimating the density of Space-Faring Civilizations (SFCs) in the universe, producing probability distributions better representing our uncertainty (e.g., Sandberg 2018, Sny... |
d59de59a-54e2-4be1-9fa1-7286fd6466c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Mild Hallucination" Test
In Scott Alexander's Lot's of People Going Around with Mild Hallucinations All the Time, he shows that several people not currently on LSD still experience mild hallucinations commonly associated with currently taking LSD.
I would like to test to see if I could teach you how to see these mil... |
93c1b6a2-c566-4b28-8571-fad8be0c56e5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | So You Want to Work at a Frontier AI Lab
Several promising software engineers have asked me: Should I work at a frontier AI lab?
My answer is always “No.”
This post explores the fundamental problem with frontier labs, some of the most common arguments in favor of working at one, and why I don’t buy these arguments... |
249e1705-e015-4291-a2af-5d21a3c16ca4 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Instead, it’s the point of no return—the day we AI risk reducers lose the ability to significantly reduce AI risk. This might happen years before classic milestones like “World GWP doubles in four years” and “Superhuman AGI is deployed."
The rest of this post explains, justifies, and expands on this obvious but undera... |
56f1510a-e2a7-493b-a829-c011160a0455 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Non-Obstruction: A Simple Concept Motivating Corrigibility
Thanks to Mathias Bonde, Tiffany Cai, Ryan Carey, Michael Cohen, Joe Collman, Andrew Critch, Abram Demski, Michael Dennis, Thomas Gilbert, Matthew Graves, Koen Holtman, Evan Hubinger, Victoria Krakovna, Amanda Ngo, Rohin Shah, Adam Shimi, Logan Smith, and Mark... |
899bbf8c-b5da-43c9-b312-ba5007c5834c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stepping Up Isolation
I've been really impressed by the coronavirus response in my communities. People are cancelling gatherings, working from home, and generally trying their best to flatten the curve. Slowing down the infection rate is critical because if we can't keep this within the capacity of our medical system ... |
445818ba-a0d4-41c5-a410-d170705ac8f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Personal Growth Cycle
We encounter psychology in our lives mainly through dysfunction. That is, people generally go to see psychologists and psychiatrists because they or others are unhappy with how they are thinking or behaving. This attention to error and correction makes most of applied psychology a kind of neg... |
b53355a1-f9e6-490a-897e-28ad94c16957 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How many philosophers accept the orthogonality thesis ? Evidence from the PhilPapers survey
The orthogonality thesis and its relation to existing meta-ethical debates
In the field of AI alignment theory, the orthogonality thesis asserts that there can exist arbitrarily intelligent agents pursuing any kind of motivatio... |
e66c09ba-84d4-4ab7-9679-9828b4e8568d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Soylent has been found to contain lead (12-25x) and cadmium (≥4x) in greater concentrations than California's 'safe harbor' levels
Press Release
Edit: Soylent's Reply, provided by Trevor_Blake
> OAKLAND, Calif., Aug. 13, 2015 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- As You Sow, a non-profit environmental-health watchdog, today fi... |
6d930c34-03c0-450e-8a30-de4a251f79e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Joy of Bias
What do you feel when you discover that your reasoning is flawed? when you find your recurring mistakes? when you find that you have been doing something wrong for quite a long time?
Many people feel bad. For example, here is a quote from a recent article on LessWrong:
> By depicting the self as alwa... |
eb4b8e61-005f-498d-b398-ef3faa48d19a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Church-Turing thesis
The **Church-Turing thesis** (often abbreviated **CT thesis**) states:
> Every effectively computable function is Turing-computable
That is, for every function which can be computed by physical means %%note:So no [hypercomputers](https://arbital.com/p/)%% there exists a [Turing machine](https://a... |
183dc093-d9d2-4b56-ab18-8ac88b93491d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The case for countermeasures to memetic spread of misaligned values
As various people have written about before, AIs that have long-term memory might pose additional risks (most notably, LLM AGI will have memory, and memory changes alignment by Seth Herd). Even if an AI is aligned or only occasionally scheming at the ... |
99846938-1507-495f-8b1b-c074eca040b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Robust Cooperation in the Prisoner's Dilemma
I'm proud to announce the preprint of Robust Cooperation in the Prisoner's Dilemma: Program Equilibrium via Provability Logic, a joint paper with Mihaly Barasz, Paul Christiano, Benja Fallenstein, Marcello Herreshoff, Patrick LaVictoire (me), and Eliezer Yudkowsky.
This pa... |
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