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3755dbcf-e257-4d0a-941d-ba18c1c1c3ab | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Provability Counterfactuals vs Three Axioms of Galles and Pearl
|
d6846aba-284f-40c2-99fa-b25be4e4b3fb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Clarifications about structural risk from AI
*Aim: to give some clarifications about ‘structural risk’ from AI that we have personally found helpful. Most of these draw directly from earlier work by Remco Zwetsloot and Allan Dafoe. We’re sharing them in case they’re also helpful to others.*
*Audience: people who wan... |
620b39ae-3ae2-45d6-9d70-602fd3058bb9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Best Visualizations on Every Subject
Edit: the list is now a public GitHub repository, with all that implies. Added sections by media type. Last update: 6 Jan 2021
Motivation
This is The Best Textbooks on Every Subject, but for visualizations. I greatly adore good visualizations, chiefly because there are so man... |
19b9da72-1f94-4a62-a34e-448fb4f012d2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Training Language Models with Language Feedback
1 Introduction
---------------
Figure 1: An overview of our algorithm for learning from natural language feedback.
Language Models (LMs) achieve strong performance across diverse NLP tasks, from summarization to que... |
1cade0b6-f2b5-4521-a4ba-c78fb396e8a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Existential biotech hazard that was designed in the 90s?
Does anyone know something about this alteration of Klebsiella planticola? Paywalled paper here. (If someone has got access please PM me, I would like to read the paper to write a more fleshed out article.)
While I am not convinced that it would really have spr... |
45491196-32e4-466c-8787-b58850a8c458 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Formal definition
Meta tag for pages which give formal or brief jargon-heavy technical definitions of a concept. Formal definitions should be secondary [lenses](https://arbital.com/p/17b) when explanations are available. |
9ced9a85-62d9-4f49-9cab-54857c52ca9d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prediction should be a sport
So, I've been thinking about prediction markets and why they aren't really catching on as much as I think they should.
My suspicion is that (beside Robin Hanson's signaling explanation, and the amount of work it takes to get to the large numbers of predictors where the quality of results ... |
50ba2f79-f1b1-4085-b18c-db6b9e18b5b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the Care and Feeding of Young Rationalists -- Revisited[Draft] [Request for Feedback]
Planned top-level post -- any feedback very much welcome.
Obviously a followup to: On the Care and Feeding of Young Rationalists
My very first top-level post on LW was a solicitation for advice/feedback/discussion on the topi... |
6ee6c910-77e9-4120-9949-d9074d0239df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interview with Olle Häggström: Reason, COVID-19 and Academic Freedom in Sweden
Olle Häggström, author of Here Be Dragons and much else, and Professor of Mathematical Statistics at my alma mater, was good enough to answer a few questions of mine. Here's an excerpt:
> ERICH: Is there a Swedish Scott Alexander? A Julia ... |
f3bee138-f59c-4a56-b7c0-43bfe4d734a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When Are Circular Definitions A Problem?
Disclaimer: if you are using a definition in a nonmathematical piece of writing, you are probably making a mistake; you should just get rid of the definition and instead use a few examples. This applies double to people who think they are being "rigorous" by defining things but... |
9b3b2868-8663-4fa3-8e3e-150eda84c217 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The 0.2 OOMs/year target
TLDR: Humanity — which includes all nations, organisations, and individuals — should limit the growth rate of machine learning training runs from 2020 until 2050 to below 0.2 OOMs/year.
Paris Climate Accords
In the early 21st century, the climate movement converged around a "2°C target", sho... |
07c567cf-0a43-41f8-bf6f-7a0acfeb5cf9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Managing catastrophic misuse without robust AIs
Many people worry about catastrophic misuse of future AIs with highly dangerous capabilities. For instance, powerful AIs might substantially lower the bar to building bioweapons or allow for massively scaling up cybercrime.
How could an AI lab serving AIs to customers m... |
f7a15264-32a0-4e5f-823f-9d01d1c5f319 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Longevity and the Mind
> A framing I quite like is that of germs vs soma, body vs eggs and cum, consciousness vs replicators.
My first foray into age reversal was a (successful) attempt to increase fluid IQ, the loss of which is among less than a handful of ubiquitous symptoms of aging.
At the time, I found it odd t... |
17da7d9e-1126-4a9e-9ca1-b6546ae82213 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Superintelligence Reading Group - Section 1: Past Developments and Present Capabilities
*This is part of a weekly reading group on Nick Bostrom's book, Superintelligence. For more information about the group, see the [announcement post](/lw/kw4/superintelligence_reading_group/). For the schedule of future topics, see ... |
39ed77e2-020d-4836-b904-dcc76fa82c4f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Grading my 2024 AI predictions
On Jan 8 2024, I wrote a Google doc with my AI predictions for the next 6 years (and slightly edited the doc on Feb 24). I’ve now quickly sorted each prediction into Correct, Incorrect, and Unclear. The following post includes all of my predictions for 2024 with the original text mostly ... |
71f7fbb5-81f5-426b-801f-e206d71c87c8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | [3-hour podcast]: Joseph Carlsmith on longtermism, utopia, the computational power of the brain, meta-ethics, illusionism and meditation
On this episode of the Utilitarian Podcast, I talk with Joseph Carlsmith. Joseph is a research analyst at [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/) and a doctoral studen... |
260d8861-1474-4e89-a69d-55174ac6ccb6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #64: Feel the Mundane Utility
It’s happening. The race is on.
Google and OpenAI both premiered the early versions of their fully multimodal, eventually fully integrated AI agents. Soon your phone experience will get more and more tightly integrated with AI. You will talk to your phone, or your computer, and it wil... |
9aed89ea-f339-494d-9937-a8c2853e6160 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Summary thread for Coursera classes
Maybe it would be worth to have a single summary thread for Coursera (and also other source like Udacity etc.) material. At some future point when the courses are on-line and enough people seen them we could work out a "LW curiculum". Here is my subjective list of particularly inter... |
f22b2bf7-9392-44d7-bb41-b5313aa5f935 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Irrationality in Argument"
Here's a poetic blog post by Julian Assange (source). I found the first paragraph relevant:
> 27 Aug 2007 - Irrationality in Argument
>
> The truth is not found on the page, but is a wayward sprite that bursts forth from the readers mind for reasons of its own. I once thought that the Tru... |
821a9cbf-3011-4720-b3a4-5971b387e0a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In Defense of the Obvious
[Cross-posed from blog]
My brain does this thing where it shuts off when I experience some warning signs. A lot of these have to do with my identity or personal beliefs, which go off when I believe my tribe is being attacked. I don’t think I’ll go as far as to say that all bra... |
8c747db3-1f58-449e-ba98-b2830c0618da | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | A Decentralized Approach towards Responsible AI in Social Ecosystems
A Decentralized Approach towards Responsible AI in Social Ecosystems Wenjing Chu Futurewei Technologies, Inc. wchu@futurewei.com Abstract For AI technology to fulfill its full promises, we must have effective means to ensure Responsible AI beha... |
bace8037-5d37-4095-b1ea-878bce0f314c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You Too Can See Suffering
|
ba07b812-b8c4-49ad-b271-b8576fe50fbf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Issues with uneven AI resource distribution
Uneven resource distribution:
-----------------------------
The uneven distribution of the resources needed to produce and use AI in a state-based system is a long-term challenge to developing international AI policy and raises international security risks.
Resources incl... |
032abce5-5bf3-4f5c-bc5c-7e73c9398630 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What are brain-computer interfaces?
A [brain-computer interface](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain%E2%80%93computer_interface) (BCI) is a direct communication pathway between the brain and a computer device. BCI research is heavily funded, and has already met dozens of successes. Three successes in human BCIs are [a ... |
04c8f3e4-961d-4252-ad4e-ab4d95cd64f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thought Crimes
Cross-posted on By Way of Contradiction
In my morals, at least up until recently, one of the most obvious universal rights was freedom of thought. Agents should be allowed to think whatever they want, and should not be discouraged for doing so. This feels like a terminal value to me, but it is also ins... |
16a8d5cd-9ca9-45a0-822b-b4ed3f5a3d5c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Debate Stability: Addressing Self-Defeating Responses
This post is a project report from the AI Safety Fundamentals course, spring 2024.
TL;DR
1. Transferring debate to an abstract algebra MMLU dataset is not trivial.
2. When GPT-3.5 is used as a judge, the outcomes may be sensitive to exact prompt phrasing.
3... |
2413389e-d1ef-476a-8144-a6122cf07e69 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | estimating the amount of populated intelligence explosion timelines
(edit 2021-07-18: this post is probly not very good, as there's some anthropic principle research out there and i haven't read any and just gone off thinking about it on my own.)
estimating the amount of populated intelligence explosion timelines
--... |
a8f56f2c-b3ec-4adc-85bc-b6f1911dea8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Internet Search Tips: how I use Google/Google Scholar/Libgen
None |
f0df226a-407b-41dc-96f9-3c0ba0070a62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting Newsletter: March 2021
Highlights
* OpenPhilanthropy releases a report on outside view perspectives on the likelihood of AGI.
* Jason Matheny, previous director of IARPA, CSET, is now a ¿senior? official in the Biden administration.
* Astral Codex Ten considers Trapped Priors As A Basic Problem Of Ratio... |
0a84965e-4f06-4258-afef-ab37ca6efa0c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup: October
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup: October
WHEN: 21 October 2016 06:30:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: The Bull & Bear Tavern, 347 Flinders Lane, Melbourne VIC
This month's Social Meetup is on as usual!
Facebook event page: https://www.facebook.com/events/209... |
8bff7ee3-5a61-4d4d-a3ec-907d25783d8e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Evolution provides no evidence for the sharp left turn
Does human evolution imply a sharp left turn from AIs?
======================================================
Arguments for the [sharp left turn](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GNhMPAWcfBCASy8e6/a-central-ai-alignment-problem-capabilities-generalization) in AI c... |
179dbf42-1304-4cbd-b89a-841dd0a08fc6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The BTC equilibriumating and the ETH one-eightening
Epistemic status: may or may not make you a bajillion dollars. Tots not investment advice.
These are my summary notes on John Pfeffer's An Investor's Take on Cryptoassets [December, 2017] and and one "SquishChaos"'s [aka Nikhil Shamapant] Etherium, The Triple Halvin... |
1a96ed4a-ae2a-4435-a563-9bb8c632b34c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Automated Mechanism Design via Neural Networks
1 Introduction
---------------
Designing revenue optimal mechanisms in various settings has been a central
research agenda in economics, ever since the seminal works of
Vickrey [[26](#bib.bib26)] and Myerson [[17](#bib.bib17)] in single
item auctions. Lately, designing... |
d9ade343-331b-49fd-b7f9-00f2851a18eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Goodhart's Law and Emotions
Goodhart's Law is an important principle about using a measure to drive action, and there are many examples of Goodhart's law and its importance in human affairs. This essay focuses on how Goodhart's Law applies to human desire in the modern environment.
Emotions do not directly measure th... |
6a1e6899-cb6a-4499-836a-4ccb2216db94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Darwinian Traps and Existential Risks
> This part 1 in a 3-part sequence summarizes my book, The Darwinian Trap (see part 2 here and part 3 here). The book aims to popularize the concept of multipolar traps and establish them as a broader cause area. If you find this series intriguing contact me at kristian@kristian... |
b3e2294b-317e-4083-b5ad-e168ad8cd2f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | More intuitive explanations!
The post on two easy to grasp explanations on Gödel's theorem and the Banach-Tarski paradox made me think of other explanations that I found easy or insightful and that I could share them as well.
1) Here is a nice proof of the Pythagorean theorem:
2) An easy and concise explanation of... |
b9fd4753-72cd-4748-a7cf-9256d52327c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Smart people should do biology
In school, it often felt like an unspoken rule: the “smart kids” did physics and chemistry, while biology was relegated to those willing to memorize disconnected facts. A high school teacher once told me biology was his least favorite science because “there are just too many things to re... |
c30c6326-e48a-4581-ab7d-236ecab1379e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Is there a God" for noobs (followup)
After having submitted it here, I published my essay on my web site, then submitted it to reddit (on r/religion and on r/atheism respectively). While I was very pleased by Less Wrong (your feedback were quite informative), reddit was quite… disappointing.
* On r/atheism, my essa... |
419c9f4e-315e-461c-8325-e8a596091ec5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fact Finding: Do Early Layers Specialise in Local Processing? (Post 5)
This is the fifth post in the Google DeepMind mechanistic interpretability team’s investigation into how language models recall facts. This post is a bit tangential to the main sequence, and documents some interesting observations about how, in gen... |
30097b27-0b4f-4f51-aeed-b83656284bba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Presentation on Learning
In order to do a better job putting together my thoughts and knowledge on the subject, I precommitted myself to giving a presentation on learning. My specific goal for the presentation is to inform audience members about how humans actually learn and teach them how to leverage this knowledge t... |
5c9b0e5a-b2f6-49d1-8f99-53158ad4b52b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What does the FDA actually do between getting the trial results and having their meeting?
It seems that for approving vaccines there's a gap of weeks between the drug company finishing their trial and giving the data to the FDA and the FDA actually making the decision to approve the vaccine. What does the FDA do durin... |
16aee831-83e2-48b6-b5ca-8a1424c42dd5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Defender’s Advantage of Interpretability
**TL;DR:** In this post, I want to argue why Interpretability & Transparency tools have a defender’s advantage if they are used correctly, i.e. they improve alignment much more than new capabilities and therefore mitigate risks of dual use. I draw parallels from biosecurity... |
059a905a-0859-4203-874a-3430dd08923a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | New blog location
*[Update: This post is out of date. My blog has now moved again, to <https://bounded-regret.ghost.io/>.]*
I’ve decided to move this blog to my personal website. It’s now located here: <https://jsteinhardt.stat.berkeley.edu/blog/>, including all the old posts and comments, plus some new and upcoming... |
4e2ae2c4-9580-4c1f-99e9-8edf489115d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Dating Heuristic
I don’t have to practice being afraid of a lion charging at me—my instincts tell me to run. But when I started dating, my instincts weren’t that reliable when attempting to attract a partner. They needed to be recalibrated. Author Matthew Hussey talks about retraining your (likely faulty) dating in... |
08d9afef-a9b5-456b-b97f-daefc7e58cbc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moral frameworks and the Harris/Klein debate
Here's a good background post and analysis on the debate (this has been linked from elsewhere on LW before): https://everythingstudies.com/2018/04/26/a-deep-dive-into-the-harris-klein-controversy/
Like many, I couldn't help but be fascinated by the Sam Harris/Ezra Klein de... |
3668f468-38e3-45c9-9a04-e9e412e103c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Transhumanist Fables
Once upon a time there were three little pigs who went out into the world to build their houses. The first pig was very lazy and built his house out of straw. The second pig was a little harder-working and built his house out of sticks. The third pig was the hardest-working of all, and built his h... |
3a11d1d9-3d37-4806-97a7-e6b3becf3945 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Why you might expect homogeneous take-off: evidence from ML research
*This write-up was produced as part of the SERI MATS programme under Evan Hubinger’s mentorship. It is also my first post on LW, so feedback is very welcome!*
Introduction
============
This article aims to draw a connection between recent ML resear... |
f84f0d70-657c-4b64-8e41-aa4ea3d9f3e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Jobs that can help with the most important century
Let’s say you’re convinced that AI could make this the most important century of all time for humanity. What can you do to help things go well instead of poorly?
I think the biggest opportunities come from a full-time job (and/or the money you make from it). I think ... |
c285cb96-a2cb-46a3-89a1-1f1a972a45cf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Far-Ultraviolet Light in Public Spaces to Fight Pandemic is a Good Idea but Premature
Also posted on my personal blog.
Tl;dr: Far-ultraviolet light has potential as a human-safe germicide, but its safety is not established. In particular, evidence that it is not carcinogenic exists for only one of two mechanisms for ... |
24b70b78-6d07-47b0-ba5b-1f8916232c96 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The burden of knowing
It’s clear that we live in unprecedented times. There is a minority of the global population that is in the process of realizing what X-Risk means. Some got it much earlier than others but for the rest of us mere mortals out there it was a bit more difficult to bear. It’s not important if someone... |
ed8ff594-281f-4057-abc4-342d2451785d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | By Default, GPTs Think In Plain Sight
Epistemic status: Speculation with some factual claims in areas I’m not an expert in.
Thanks to Jean-Stanislas Denain, Charbel-Raphael Segerie, Alexandre Variengien, and Arun Jose for helpful feedback on drafts, and thanks to janus, who shared related ideas.
Main claims
* GPTs... |
16e201a5-5dfe-4cfb-95ad-bc33d7075411 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Candy Innovation
What innovations in candy have there been since the '90s? Are there new flavors? Better imitations of existing flavors? New textures?
So far, all of the candy my kids have brought home seems to be things we could get 25 years ago. Though possibly flavors have improved, since I've only been trying wha... |
5c4633ef-d784-4bad-ae17-90c0aa16a1f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Linkpost: They Studied Dishonesty. Was Their Work a Lie?
This is a linkpost for Gideon Lewis-Kraus's New Yorker article on the (alleged) Ariely and Gino data fraud scandals. I've been following this situation off-and-on for a while (and even more so after the original datacolada blog posts). The basic story is that mu... |
5fa12f13-932d-49ea-8c08-73f28ae2a1f3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority
The maxipok rule Existential risk and uncertainty An existential risk is one that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development . Although it is often dif... |
eb77a8d0-81cf-45ab-a102-8892cfa93067 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Primates vs birds: Is one brain architecture better than the other?
*By Tegan McCaslin, 28 February 2019*
The boring answer to that question is, “Yes, birds.” But that’s only because birds can pack more neurons into a walnut-sized brain than a monkey with a brain four times that size. So let’s forget about brain vol... |
e9bf40a4-41b4-4144-b7e6-2bc0ea6e6794 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Clarifying Alignment Fundamentals Through the Lens of Ontology
Meta: This post grapples with the fundamentals of alignment, which are simultaneously well-trodden ground and quite confusing. I've spent enough time with this post that I no longer have a sense for if the topics are trivial or insightful – I can only imag... |
defdea5d-daf3-4144-8e59-9ff0af185503 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Solving the Mechanistic Interpretability challenges: EIS VII Challenge 1
We solved the first (edit: and second) Mechanistic Interpretability challenge that Stephen Casper posed in EIS VII. We spent the last Alignment Jam hackathon attempting to solve the two challenges presented there, and present our (confirmed) solu... |
40de7333-d689-482c-8a00-7956c7b1268d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Crosspost] AI X-risk in the News: How Effective are Recent Media Items and How is Awareness Changing? Our New Survey Results.
This is a summary of a follow-up study conducted by the Existential Risk Observatory, which delves into a greater number media items. To access our previous study, please follow this link. The... |
065f6b72-bd14-44ca-8d15-afea5c738d77 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | When can a mimic surprise you? Why generative models handle seemingly ill-posed problems
*Thanks to Chris Leong and Nora Belrose for their feedback. This is meant to be part of an entry to the* [*Future Fund AI Worldview Competition*](https://ftxfuturefund.org/announcing-the-future-funds-ai-worldview-prize/)*, but a ... |
d399e777-6162-43e1-98e3-49e5e0c3867a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions
Imagine looking at your hand, and knowing nothing of cells, nothing of biochemistry, nothing of DNA. You’ve learned some anatomy from dissection, so you know your hand contains muscles; but you don’t know why muscles move instead of lying there like clay. Your hand is just . ... |
e3a90ac1-6155-42ec-9046-babcb134fe26 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Building AI safety benchmark environments on themes of universal human values
This is an AI Safety Camp 10 project that I will be leading. With this post, I am looking for external collaborators, ideas, questions, resource suggestions, feedback, and other thoughts.
Summary
Based on various sources of anthropological... |
3d947cb0-6e49-4ef3-bbcf-1a34200f604b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Zombies: The Movie
FADE IN around a serious-looking group of uniformed military officers. At the head of the table, a senior, heavy-set man, GENERAL FRED, speaks.
GENERAL FRED: The reports are confirmed. New York has been overrun... by zombies.
COLONEL TODD: Again? But we just had a zombie invasion 28 days ago!... |
e95be19f-3be7-48c6-a8df-e5d07163334b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Game Theory and Behavioral Economics in The Stock Market
In this post, I attempt to apply a few of the theoretical concepts I’ve discussed in previous posts (on NonZeroSum.Games)to a field that we encounter often but remains a mystery to most of us - the stock market. If the stock market is a game, is it zero-sum? W... |
42f347ec-8528-45fa-b520-992c54603788 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | 2017 AI Safety Literature Review and Charity Comparison
*Summary: I review a significant amount of 2017 research related to AI Safety and offer some comments about where I am going to donate this year. Cross-posted from here upon request.*
Contents
--------
Contents
Introduction
The Machine Intelligence Research ... |
b1fdf879-3435-4286-94ea-9fb8ba100704 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Best reasons for pessimism about impact of impact measures?
Habryka [recently wrote](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t3t9osBsmwkajWz5Y/long-term-future-fund-april-2019-grant-decisions) (emphasis mine):
> My inside views on AI Alignment make me think that work on impact measures is *very unlikely* to result in much c... |
cf4e1ea1-928a-4bfd-8d01-28e3c584304a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sapir-Whorf Ego Death
Meditation can be tricky. I’m by no means a skilled practitioner, but I did make a fair bit of progress with my focus meditation recently. This post is about the realization that helped me up my meditation game. Enjoy!
----------------------------------------
When I meditate, I often spin away... |
bec4149f-863a-4a89-9b1c-30cc09a62f47 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, DC Meetup with Special Guest
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, DC Meetup with Special Guest
WHEN: 06 January 2013 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC
After some of the DC group attended a talk by Robin Hanson, I asked him to come visit a meetup! And... |
876e1ff9-eb64-4681-80c9-8f66e57cf6e5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How you will change the world
Hopefully this is obvious to many people, but it seems some smart ones at least don’t really think about it.
Suppose you have some grand goal, that many people fail at. For instance you want to revolutionise your field or start the social movement that stops poverty or build a flight sea... |
01ef40bd-d231-4ee1-b0f8-de371a4bb105 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How did you make your way back from meta?
I've noticed in myself a strong preference for focusing on the meta level. It's most visible in fields dear to me, like writing. For example, I'll spend much more time reading up on rhetoric or tracking down rare 1980's books about writing techniques than practicing writing es... |
d9abea87-205c-4dc4-b3ab-e6de020caf79 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pascal's Mugging as an epistemic problem
Related to: Some of the discussion going on here
In the LW version of Pascal's Mugging, a mugger threatens to simulate and torture people unless you hand over your wallet. Here, the problem is decision-theoretic: as long as you precommit to ignore all threats of blackmail and ... |
31130378-97a3-4a5d-91cd-3b906fa8cbeb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reductionism
Almost one year ago, in April 2007, Matthew C submitted the following suggestion for an Overcoming Bias topic:
> "How and why the current reigning philosophical hegemon (reductionistic materialism) is obviously correct [...], while the reigning philosophical viewpoints of all past societies and civilizat... |
5f22ec88-c553-464a-93d8-dd51a71d0a9c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is libertarianism unsustainable? Why?
Tyler Cowen earlier this year wrote about the intellectual demise of libertarianism (Cowen 2020). I'm here wondering: aside from its normative status, is libertarianism unsustainable for reasons intrinsic to itself? Said differently, is it true that there are mechanisms intrinsic ... |
88ecb0ec-ddc6-42e2-a8f1-544a6fc941ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to motivate women to speak up
Cross posted from Overcoming Bias. Comments there.
***
In mixed groups, women don’t talk as much as men. This is perhaps related to women being perceived as “bitches” if they do, i.e. pushy, domineering creatures whom one would best loath and avoid. Lindy West at Jezebel comments:
... |
e9539032-3f0e-42ab-9a37-0440ad82316f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Using humility to counteract shame
“Pride is not the opposite of shame, but its source. True humility is the only antidote to shame.”
Uncle Iroh, “Avatar: The Last Airbender”
Shame is one of the trickiest emotions to deal with. It... |
18ee2d98-9b4e-4676-93c3-834dbe712763 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Question about Lewis' counterfactual theory of causation
In reading the SEP entry on counterfactual theories of causation, I had the following question occur, and I haven't been able to satisfactorily resolve it for myself.
An event e is said to causally depend on an event c if and only if e would occur if c were to ... |
aa5d1ad0-9d10-411f-a532-d0bb85531ed7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Curated blind auction prediction markets and a reputation system as an alternative to editorial review in news publication.
If one were to build an open platform to compete with news media rather than social or blogging media, they would need some sort of accountability/quality control mechanism to mirror the role of... |
3fa2fd1a-249d-473a-8ddd-7af2a7923701 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Four Background Claims
MIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human artificial intelligence has a positive impact. Why is this mission important, and why do we think that there’s work we can do today to help ensure any such thing?
In this post and my next one, I’ll try to answer those question... |
5478b0b4-e7fd-46f7-99dd-1a915fe269d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scott Alexander 2021 Predictions: Market Prices - Resolution
Last year, I looked at Scott's forecasts for 2021 and compared them to the market forecasts. Today I went through those forecasts (and Zvi's * - a buy/hold/sell exercise done on Scott's estimates) added the resolutions and calculated a Brier score and a log-... |
bd5b990c-d411-4d1b-ac0d-83d20da5b65f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Those who can't admit they're wrong
The sequences cover the virtue of admitting you've made a mistake. We all make mistakes and when we do we ought to say oops and move on. I was taught this at an early age and I grew up in an environment where admitting error had no social stigma and where correcting somebody (even i... |
50335330-5b3c-4f4b-ac0e-83faedeba2c0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Greedy Doctor Problem... turns out to be relevant to the ELK problem?
The following post was published on [my Substack](https://universalprior.substack.com/p/the-greedy-doctor-problem) and discussed on [HackerNews](https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29269973) about 2 months ago. I originally planned it as an acc... |
dba7026b-cfcc-466e-b632-f93b096bdf5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Formalizing the Informal (event invite)
Formalizing the Informal
One way to view MIRI's Agent Foundations research is that it saw the biggest problem in AI safety as "human preferences are informal, but we need to somehow get formal guarantees about them" -- and so, in response, it set out to make a formal-informal br... |
c64b14ab-7046-425a-b02a-6b7a633bbc39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Could World War I have been prevented given the benefit of hindsight?
Consider the following scenario: you are sent back in time some number of years before the beginning of WWI, with the goal of preventing the war. This includes preventing similar wars that happen slightly earlier or slightly later - you are aiming f... |
a9ed1036-914d-4aa2-846a-5eff0e8cd8a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Transcript: Yudkowsky on Bankless follow-up Q&A
Head over to Rob Bensinger's improved transcript, combined with the original podcast. (This one has been updated correspondingly).
---
This follow-up Q&A took place shortly after the podcast was released. It clears some questions about AI takeover pathways & alignment ... |
a10c5d3f-0c67-436f-9108-59d329bee4e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SlateStarCodex deleted because NYT wants to dox Scott
NYT Is Threatening My Safety By Revealing My Real Name, So I Am Deleting The Blog
PS: One suggestion I have is to allow anonymous posts on Lesswrong that show the author’s anonymized karma. This is far from a good or complete solution, but I imagine it would at le... |
f2452dce-3af1-4360-b018-46ef8c901339 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Follow-up Posting on Cyborg Psychologist
> As a follow-up to the Posting on the little Cyborg Psycho-test application written by Martin and Philipp Burckhardt, the follow-up text on how it was made is now available on the Ex Nihilo blog in both German and Englisch.
>
> You can contact Philipp directly for any questio... |
78328461-66c7-47a5-88a0-3a721c175daf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Are pre-specified utility functions about the real world possible in principle?
*Preface: I think my question is a rather basic one, but I haven't been able to find a good answer to it yet. I did find one [post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b8ijLnSE9aqXDLdGW/could-utility-functions-be-for-narrow-ai-only-and-downrig... |
edb3d2e8-7a76-4d4c-a49e-8f95fc49f9a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Multiplicity of "enlightenment" states and contemplative practices
It seems that there are multiple different mental states that people have historically called "enlightenment", as well as many different types of contemplative practices with different underlying cognitive mechanisms. I link to and quote from a couple ... |
99e540a5-0265-4fde-9901-36092bf76a7d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup in San Diego, CA, USA
We're holding what I believe is the first San Diego meetup on Sunday, July 31st starting at 1pm at the K&B Wine Cellars near San Diego State University:
6380 Del Cerro Blvd.
San Diego, CA 92120
The phone number for the place is 619-286-0884. This is one of a number of places along a str... |
7f261c6f-1c2e-4a3d-9dc7-cd1c0c27d266 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Aumann Agreement by Combat
The first paper in the SIGBOVIK 2019 proceedings, “Aumann Agreement by Combat” by Travis Hance, seems relevant to this site. The paper is on page 4 of the PDF (page 8 if you include front matter).
The abstract:
> The celebrated Aumann’s Agreement Theorem shows that two rational agents with... |
35acac8c-d679-4940-8e27-c09d2ea1f1b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anthropic's Core Views on AI Safety
> We founded Anthropic because we believe the impact of AI might be comparable to that of the industrial and scientific revolutions, but we aren’t confident it will go well. And we also believe this level of impact could start to arrive soon – perhaps in the coming decade.
>
> This... |
03f18e9c-423a-449d-af04-025a974b596c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Architects of Our Own Demise: We Should Stop Developing AI
Some brief thoughts at a difficult time in the AI risk debate.
Imagine you go back in time to the year 1999 and tell people that in 24 years time, humans will be on the verge of building weakly superhuman AI systems. I remember watching the anime short serie... |
516aab80-870d-4920-ad54-e2f952827a10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Technical Universities in Europe: a Recommendation Thread
I wish to transfer to a university in Europe, to complete my engineering formation. I thought it might be the opportunity to initiate a discussion on the merits of European technical schools, given how many people here have a STEM background, and have experienc... |
f6b5a969-92a5-4626-a13a-62904c95250f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Giulio Tononi's "Integrated Information Theory" of Consciousness
My daily browsing has come across an idea I haven't seen before, though it has been mentioned on LW occasionally. Created by Giulio Tononi, the basic premise seems to be that consciousness can be quantified, by measuring how much information is contained... |
2e13d8df-d72f-4822-9a02-7356a1840f83 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alignment Newsletter #19
Highlights
OpenAI Five Benchmark: Results (OpenAI's Dota Team): The OpenAI Five benchmark happened last Sunday, where OpenAI Five won two matches against the human team, and lost the last one when their draft was adversarially selected. They are now planning to play at The International in a ... |
6c7779ec-68cf-498e-aca1-058c2825910d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Don't over-update on FrontierMath results
(As an employee of the European AI Office, it's important for me to emphasize this point: The views and opinions of the author expressed herein are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of the European Commission or other EU institutions.)
When OpenAI first announced ... |
dd5ce3f1-8884-423c-b251-50b3f32e1d39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 6-paragraph AI risk intro for MAISI
The Michigan AI Safety Initiative (MAISI) is a new AI safety student group at the University of Michigan. The website's "About" page includes a short intro to AI risk. I'm sharing it here for people who are interested in short pitches for AI x-risk. Feel free to comment with feedbac... |
633929df-8dcc-428c-bf8e-7e27fc61569c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Purpose and Pragmatism
Followup to: Making Beliefs Pay Rent, Lost Purposes
Thus runs the ancient parable:
> If a tree falls in a forest and no one hears it, does it make a sound?
> One says, "Yes it does, for it makes vibrations in the air."
> Another says, "No it does not, for there is no auditory processing in an... |
86b8d310-2412-4126-97c7-0ec20a67f849 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Ontology identification problem: Technical tutorial
The problem of [ontology identification](https://arbital.com/p/5c) is the problem of loading a goal into an [advanced agent](https://arbital.com/p/2c) when that agent's representation of the world is likely to change in ways [unforeseen in the development phase](http... |
4098121a-5795-4e90-94b9-677e76ea8311 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Defeat may be irreversibly catastrophic
Context: This is a linkpost for https://aisafety.info/questions/NM3P/9:-Defeat-may-be-irreversibly-catastrophic
This is an article in the new intro to AI safety series from AISafety.info. We'd appreciate any feedback. The most up-to-date version of this article is on our websit... |
da9e0858-1bc4-4341-9b44-d8f6d3b539bf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Using Natural Language to Guide Meta-Learning Agents towards Human-like Inductive Biases.
Using Natural Language to Guide Meta-Learning Agents towards
Human-like Inductive Biases
Sreejan Kumar1, Ishita Dasgupta2, Michael Hu1, Raja Marjieh1, Robert D. Hawkins1,
Nathaniel D. Daw1, Jonathan D. Cohen1, Karthik Narasimhan1... |
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