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16365da0-8dd1-4433-8139-b99dd268fcbb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prosaic AI alignment
(Related: a possible stance for AI control.)
It’s conceivable that we will build “prosaic” AGI, which doesn’t reveal any fundamentally new ideas about the nature of intelligence or turn up any “unknown unknowns.” I think we wouldn’t know how to align such an AGI; moreover, in the process of build... |
d9a44fc4-e8da-43d0-b57d-1d8d64b28cfd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Smelling Nice is Good, Actually
Smelling bad is bad. Duh. That's why we call it "smelling bad".
But it wasn't obvious to me that smelling nice could be good. It seemed sufficient to simply not smell like anything. Smelling like nothing is already good; smelling nice is supererogatory.
Thus, for most of my life, I di... |
58376b81-bf70-4177-8ffe-ec87eccd9164 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alignment being impossible might be better than it being really difficult
Epistemic status: Thinking out loud.
TL;DR: If alignment is just really difficult (or impossible for humanity), we might end up with an unaligned superintelligence which itself solves the alignment problem, gaining exponentially more power. If ... |
118c4355-96ad-4843-b276-872948339da0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bounds of Attention
I once worked in a special needs class that consisted mostly of kids with Downs Syndrome and Autism Spectrum disorder. There were many patterns I noticed that ran through both groups, but at the end of the free period when we had to draw the students' attention back to classwork, one difference bec... |
48026c24-f30b-4a1f-abfe-27f3ada142bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Making progress on the ``what alignment target should be aimed at?'' question, is urgent
There exists a class of AI proposals, where some AI is supposed to undergo an I. J. Good style intelligence explosion, and then defer the decision, of what alignment target, will eventually be hit, to someone else. One such propos... |
59c079f2-1332-4182-859d-bff67c61c81f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Disambiguating the ‘Observable Universe’
I’ve seen a lot of confusion over what precisely the term ‘observable universe’ refers to. This post is an attempt to remedy that. Crossposted from my personal website.
In 1929, Edwin Hubble discovered that the universe is expanding. He observed that light emitted from distan... |
a3451dfd-e891-42b3-911c-ef943df6c274 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | ChatGPT banned in Italy over privacy concerns
> Italy has become the first Western country to block advanced chatbot ChatGPT.
>
> The Italian data-protection authority said there were privacy concerns relating to the model, which was created by US start-up OpenAI and is backed by Microsoft.
>
> The regulator said it... |
824352d3-1467-4ffc-a717-d320895ff550 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Causation, Correlation, and Confounding: A Graphical Explainer
I’ve developed a new type of graphic to illustrate causation, correlation, and confounding. It provides an intuitive understanding of why we observe correlation without causation and how it's possible to have causation without correlation. If you read to t... |
2a6fa25e-ffd3-46af-bf56-7c67fa66e143 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Links passing through api.viglink.com?
Visiting Less Wrong after being absent for a while can be a major time sink. The sidebar recent-posts and recent-comments links (which I usually have blocked, but not always; I haven't installed the relevant extensions on the system I'm on yet) draw me into interesting discussion... |
52827f37-c659-4084-ba66-49c498dbfeaf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Replacing Natural Interpretations
Epistemic status: exploratory
If the Earth moves, why can’t we feel it? And why do object dropped from high places fall vertically instead of to the side (since the Earth is supposed to have moved)? These are not stupid questions. If you were first introduced to the idea of the Earth... |
e3a83e61-7305-4584-85ed-34a56e2d62b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Abstract Systems
We've all seen those abstract systems that are used for analysis like: Strategy = Ends + Ways + Means, Waterfall Model: Requirements, System Design, Implementation, Integration & Testing, Deployment, Maintenance, SWOT: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats, ect.
Classes that teach these te... |
1d8e3beb-e6e0-4001-83f3-fba7427279c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Slack Club
This is a post from The Last Rationalist, which asks, generally, "Why do rationalists have such a hard time doing things, as a community?" Their answer is that rationality selects for a particular smart-but-lazy archetype, who values solving problems with silver bullets and abstraction, rather than hard wor... |
147cffda-90cb-4bb8-a402-be63772e33e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Research Facilitation Invitation
Summary: Would you like to help me with my research by letting me try to help you with your research?
----------------------------------------
One of my brand new sub-projects at the moment (underneath the larger "naturalism" heading) is research facilitation.
So far, I've mostly be... |
1f08e3e8-45b5-4ab7-b81f-17fcf9025f49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mini advent calendar of Xrisks: synthetic biology
The FHI's mini advent calendar: counting down through the big five existential risks. The second one is a new, exciting risk: synthetic biology.
Synthetic biology
Current understanding: medium-low
Most worrying aspect: hackers experimenting with our basic biology
Synt... |
7c9a4f91-16b0-4b4c-9a92-828b1bf2790a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Q & A with Stuart Russell in AISafety.com Reading Group
On Wednesday the 8th 11:45 PST = 19:45 UTC, Stuart Russell will be joining the online AISafety.com Reading Group, and answer questions about his book, Human Compatible.
If you'd like to join, please add me on Skype ("soeren.elverlin").
This book has previously ... |
4a56fdfd-b637-4716-a379-8da5d2004286 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | look at the water
Occasionally I’ve noticed I’m handicapping myself. I don’t let knowledge I know from different contexts seep in. I’ve got to solve the assignment problem the “proper way”.
If this was a problem I’d stumbled upon in the wild I would throw any tool I had at it. I’m not trying to solve this math questi... |
f05e1829-343f-4481-9871-07302248efdd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Probability Question
Hi, I am relatively new to this site, I am not sure if this is the right place to be posting.
I am sure many of you are familiar with the following probability riddle:
"Sarah is walking along the street when she encounters a man. With the man is his son. He tells Sarah that he has only one mor... |
80f0a19c-edd8-4411-a236-d3b4fd9075e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alleviating Bipolar with meditation
Original post: Alleviating Bipolar with meditation
I was asked on the slack, about bipolar and what might help from a meditation standpoint. I have my own experiences to share. (standard non-medical advice disclaimer applies here, i’m not qualified to give professional advice and... |
0597902e-607c-41c3-a23c-28f7aeec6213 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | UDT in the Land of Probabilistic Oracles
In my previous post, I explained how a set of programs predicting each other using a probabilistic oracle and taking utility-maximizing actions will naturally play a Nash equilibrium. However, this seems to be suspiciously CDT-like. A program will, for example, betray in a Nash... |
e8a951e8-e8cf-4876-aa8d-df9f6f1c0b39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Fourth Arena: What’s Up in the world these days? We’re moving to a new, a new what?
About ten years of so ago I discovered object-oriented ontology (OOO) and Bruno Latour. That plunged me into a philosophy period during which I ended up taking a really Big Look at things. I ended up sketching a cosmology/ontology... |
8966435a-3c00-4f56-9654-9d2aacaf2bca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is keeping AI "in the box" during training enough?
Many current ML architectures do offline training on a fixed training set ahead of time. For example, GPT-3 is quite successful with this approach. These are, so-to-speak, "in the box" during training: all they can do is match the given text completion more or less we... |
5323bc7e-6d25-42bc-a932-9b47422195e5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Apply to a small iteration of MLAB to be run in Oxford
TLDR: We’re running a small iteration of MLAB (~10 participants) in Oxford towards the end of September. If you’re interested in participating, apply here by 7 September. If you’re interested in being a TA, please email us directly at oxfordmlab@gmail.com
Edit: T... |
80431ff2-4608-478a-bdd4-411822bac499 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The Amazing Virgin Pregnancy
Today's post, The Amazing Virgin Pregnancy was originally published on 24 December 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> A story in which Mary tells Joseph that God made her pregnant so Joseph won't realize she's been cheating on him with the village rabbi.
Discuss ... |
6fc60b4c-0653-4438-9018-cf871d037b19 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The History of Color in Chinese
The linked post is better because you can see the colors.
----------------------------------------
Older Chinese characters tend to be simpler. You can use this to measure the relative ages of ancient concepts.
For example, the Chinese characters for colors are:
* 白 white
* 黑 blac... |
bae38ba4-2e04-45af-98b2-d3701ff046f5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | 2018-19 New Year review
#### 2018 progress
Research / AI safety:
* Wrote a paper on [measuring side effects using relative reachability](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.01186) in May, and presented the results at the ICML GoalsRL workshop and the AI safety summer school. Since then, some [new](https://openreview.net/fo... |
350a2ca8-3b60-4ccf-af42-4a4f44b530d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Man in the Arena
> “It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes s... |
db3a5640-4ee7-4673-9c69-9e706f20de93 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Safe Reinforcement Learning via Probabilistic Shields
Introduction
------------
Recent years showed increased use of reinforcement learning (RL) in solving tasks such as complex games (?) or robotic manipulation (?).
In RL, an agent perceives the surrounding environment and acts towards maximizing a long-term rewar... |
e1846e0c-e041-40b9-801c-75a634f0b0d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weighing Animal Worth
It's common for people who approach helping animals from a quantitative direction to need some concept of "moral weights" so they can prioritize. If you can avert one year of suffering for a chicken or ten for shrimp which should you choose? Now, moral weight is not the only consideration with qu... |
064976e1-ea1d-4076-93b2-dcc2f7c5d317 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Not Yet the Dawn
How many is too many?
How much is too much?
How do we live with the numbers? These damned numbers.
R0, R1, the case fatality rate, the hospitalization rate, the rate of ICU overcrowding, the number of infected, the number of dead, the number of bodies piling up in morgues, when does it all stop really... |
844cef65-695d-4397-afc9-77640621d143 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Conditioning, Prompts, and Fine-Tuning
*(Thanks to Evan Hubinger and Nicholas Schiefer for comments on these ideas.)*
These are some notes on the relation between conditioning language models, prompting, and fine-tuning. The key takeaways are:
1. Prompting and fine-tuning can both be used to condition language model... |
88266035-440e-41d6-a325-e0e730a2e5ba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Open-source LLMs may prove Bostrom's vulnerable world hypothesis
In short, Nick Bostrom's [vulnerable world hypothesis](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf) states that humanity may in the future invent a technology that is potentially very destructive and very cheap to make and easily implementable. As a th... |
5766c171-1b36-48e4-9bec-1457cf005ba5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 200 COP in MI: Interpreting Algorithmic Problems
This is the fourth post in a sequence called 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability. Start here, then read in any order. If you want to learn the basics before you think about open problems, check out my post on getting started. Look up jargon in my ... |
5a40a5ed-b6bf-4e50-8505-abab8bf9fc71 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | How can I use a background in the social sciences to help with AI alignment?
Nora Ammann, in the post [AI alignment as “navigating the space of intelligent behaviour”](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/FuToH2KHxKmJLGk2B/ai-alignment-as-navigating-the-space-of-intelligent), describes “three epistemic strategies for ... |
c1c07cdc-db65-4e45-b341-92f67a6fcf51 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Information security considerations for AI and the long term future
Summary
This post is authored by Jeffrey Ladish, who works on the security team at Anthropic, and Lennart Heim, who works on AI Governance with GovAI (more about us at the end). The views in the post are our own and do not speak for Anthropic or GovAI... |
1f1430ed-63e7-4e54-bf96-e589e61f4e53 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hypothetical - Moon Station Government
You are now in control of a habitat on the moon. It has no ties to any government; its creation was funded by a wealthy philanthropist who just wants people to emigrate from Earth. The cost of doing so is within the reach of a middle-class family if they sell their home; you can ... |
e7a11e61-e483-4d46-a29c-daa9b39c6224 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Psychologist making pseudo-claim that recent works "compromise the Bayesian point of view"
I have recently been corresponding with a friend who studies psychology regarding human cognition and the best underlying models for understanding it. His argument, summarized very briefly, is given by this quote:
> Lastly, the... |
ec1b164d-9189-4510-8fba-aa621a018315 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Numberwang: LLMs Doing Autonomous Research, and a Call for Input
Summary
Can LLMs science? The answer to this question can tell us important things about timelines to AGI. In this small pilot experiment, we test frontier LLMs on their ability to perform a minimal version of scientific research, where they must discove... |
45a455cb-2619-44ed-9b21-e82529514cc1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Intermittent Distillations #3
Mundane solutions to exotic problems (Paul Christiano)
======================================================
[Mundane solutions to exotic problems](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/d5m3G3ov5phZu7FX3/mundane-solutions-to-exotic-problems)
Summary
-------
Thinking about AI safety ... |
5850c87f-f412-4643-b959-9a15cf17a182 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | FYI: I’m working on a book about the threat of AGI/ASI for a general audience. I hope it will be of value to the cause and the community
The TLDR is the title of this post.
Hi all, long time EA/Rationalist, first time poster (apologies if formatting is off). I’m posting to mention that I’m 30,000 words into a draft o... |
c02adf0c-4d1c-41fa-80e1-d29b1aceb53d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, Jul. 6 - Jul. 12, 2015
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately ... |
965a9dac-0a4a-407d-b2fa-f002b3993190 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Change Is Bad
Epistemic Status: Public service reminder (I want to be able to link to this in the future)
Leads to: Choices are Bad, Choices Are Really Bad, Complexity Is Bad
Almost all changes are bad.
People forget that. They say they want change. They say things like:
> At the end of the day, I want to see ch... |
33262e95-707d-4003-adc0-899e8c3e0ba0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's the theory of impact for activation vectors?
Activation vectors are really, really cool, but what is the theory of impact for this work?
* Is the hope that activation vectors will allow us to actually gain perfect control over a model to get it to do exactly what we want it to do?
* Is the hope that a new te... |
166fa083-2937-47b4-8afe-1e7ed08cefbc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preparing for a Rational Financial Planning Sequence
What follows is a rough outline for a possible rational financial planning sequence that was inspired by some other recent discussion here. I'm not sure how useful this would be to how many people. I know there are some LessWrongers who would enjoy and learn from th... |
3d70892e-0d01-4dde-b0fe-5089841f6e08 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Highlights from the Blackmail Debate (Robin Hanson vs Zvi Mowshowitz)
At one of our weekly LessWrong events, we had a lively debate on legalizing blackmail (video, transcript). Robin Hanson took the pro side, Zvi Mowshowitz took the con, and I moderated. 70 people showed up to watch for ~2 hours.
Here's my overview o... |
0fc57839-2087-4d7e-92d8-06eed1dc2083 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evaluating a Corsi-Rosenthal Filter Cube
When I wrote about testing my ceiling air purifier prototype, two common questions were:
* Where is your control group?
* How does this compare to a Corsi-Rosenthal filter cube?
Several rounds of testing and one worn out particle meter later, I have answers for you! First... |
edd7dbe9-ec88-403b-9bbd-1ece1ae31802 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Sim-to-Real via Sim-to-Seg: End-to-end Off-road Autonomous Driving Without Real Data.
1 Introduction
---------------
Simplifying large autonomous driving software stacks, which are usually composed of 3D scene understanding, localization, mapping, and control, is a promising goal. While these stacks can indeed perf... |
e19e13af-0d18-4a79-8dc6-393f6c8eb69e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Using Trusted Data to Train Deep Networks on Labels Corrupted by Severe Noise.
1 Introduction
---------------
Robustness to label noise is set to become an increasingly important property of supervised learning models. With the advent of deep learning, the need for more labeled data makes it inevitable that not all... |
05cb8561-3858-4988-b6e3-abdbf85c662f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You can't believe in Bayes
Well, you can. It's just oxymoronic, or at least ironic. Because belief is contrary to the Bayesian paradigm.
You use Bayesian methods to choose an action. You have a set of observations, and assign probabilities to possible outcomes, and choose an action.
Belief in an outcome N means t... |
c49501eb-f08e-4911-9098-c13d50bc8453 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How much AI inference can we do?
Suppose you have a bunch of GPUs. How many LLM forward passes can you do with them?[1]
This is relevant to figuring out how profitable AI will be in the short-term, how powerful AI systems might be able to come in the near future, how large the compute overhang will be and other strat... |
7ca943f4-c5a0-4024-8164-a2c904382866 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there work looking at the implications of many worlds QM for existential risk?
I’m thinking of writing a full post on how to think about existential risk in a many worlds scenario. Maybe there are strategies for avoiding existential risk that only make sense if many worlds is true.
For example, if the odds of ext... |
9b84bbeb-cb3d-4d99-af3e-0ec7752b44a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book: AKA Shakespeare (an extended Bayesian investigation)
Disclaimer: I have not read this book. I'm posting it in the expectation that others may enjoy it as much as I'm sure I would if I had time to read it myself.
This looks interesting as an extended worked example of Bayesian reasoning (the "scientific approach... |
67a97ca8-2508-4658-8816-31ae3c8808eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is MIRI currently doing?
As of EoY 2022, MIRI has 11 people on payroll, assets of about $20M and a lot of mindshare. Its mission is stated as follows on the most recent tax filing I can find:
> "To ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. thus, the charitable purpose of ... |
e01553d5-62c3-43c0-8c21-bd31021adc8d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Import AI 322: Huawei's trillion parameter model; AI systems as moral patients; parasocial bots via Character.ai
Welcome to Import AI, a newsletter about AI research. Import AI runs on lattes, ramen, and feedback from readers. If you’d like to support this (and comment on posts!) please subscribe.
[Subscribe now](htt... |
9e24c719-3274-474a-a904-4d07a1e06343 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [ACX Linkpost] Prospectus on Próspera
I like reading LW comments more than Substack comments, and I think this post might generate some high-info discussion. |
51e43390-65e9-4f66-a98b-6e382329afa3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Understanding Agency
Note: In this article I refer to "constructive developmental theory" as "constructive development theory", however the former is more common and should be used instead. I changed it in the version of this on my own blog, but because I think it would add some confusion to the comments if I changed ... |
5e409914-58b3-4814-b6ae-7db211731943 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Standardized Max Logits: A Simple yet Effective Approach for Identifying Unexpected Road Obstacles in Urban-Scene Segmentation
1 Introduction
---------------
Figure 1: Box plots of MSP, max logit, and standardized max logit in Fishyscapes Static. X-axi... |
77afa606-3023-4a29-999c-20ddcb2e85aa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Elicitation for Modeling Transformative AI Risks
*This post is part 8 in our sequence on Modeling Transformative AI Risk. We are building a model to understand debates around existential risks from advanced AI. The model is made with Analytica software, and consists of nodes (representing key hypotheses and cruxes) an... |
9e06d805-4e3b-4419-8cc0-b4be262d4019 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ambitious utilitarians must concern themselves with death
And I don't mean that they must concern themselves with death in the sense of ending death, or removing its sting through mental backups, or delaying it to the later ages of the universe; or in the sense of working to decrease the probability of extinction risk... |
55b51299-330a-4f94-97c3-d28d90553c2f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When is Winning not Winning?
Lately I'd gotten jaded enough that I simply accepted that different rules apply to the elite class. As Hanson would say, most rules are there specifically to curtail those who don't have the ability to avoid them and to be side-stepped by those who do - it's why we evolved such big, ma... |
c567ae32-6602-41da-b721-848bc993a979 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are some examples of AIs instantiating the 'nearest unblocked strategy problem'?
A paragraph explaining the problem, from Ngo, Chan, and Mindermann (2023). I've bolded the key part:
> Our definition of internally-represented goals is consistent with policies learning multiple goals during training, including som... |
ef2fb29b-93be-4f1a-b848-69d7e4c3bc07 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Join AISafety.info's Distillation Hackathon (Oct 6-9th)
tl;dr: Contribute to[aisafety.info](https://aisafety.info) by answering questions about AI Safety from October 6th to October 9th. Participation in hackathons is the basis for applying to future fellowships, and there are prizes to be won by the top entrants. Reg... |
dad7592b-457f-42b2-9408-cb5f1603b0b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Frame Negative Feedback as Forward-Facing Guidance
Your employee Fred always talks too much during your weekly staff meetings. It's been an ongoing issue. Everyone on your team is annoyed, and so are you. At this point, you have no choice but to give Fred some... negative feedback.
You sit down at your compute... |
c798ec4c-10d2-4333-a007-0326a21f76fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Compartmentalization as a passive phenomenon
We commonly discuss compartmentalization as if it were an active process, something you do. Eliezer suspected his altruism, as well as some people's "clicking", was due to a "failure to compartmentalize". Morendil discussed compartmentalization as something to avoid. But I ... |
a74855a7-fc24-4cca-ad2a-129fdc8b1873 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Update 2021-05-31
Update 2021-05-31: AGI already includes net realized capital gains: |
e23269ab-4c6b-4882-aac6-242e7265c053 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/distill | Distill Scientific Journal | A Discussion of 'Adversarial Examples Are Not Bugs, They Are Features': Adversarial Example Researchers Need to Expand What is Meant by 'Robustness'
#rebuttal,
.comment-info {
background-color: hsl(54, 78%, 96%);
border-left: solid hsl(54, 33%, 67%) 1px;
padding: 1em;
color: hsla(0, 0%, 0%, 0.67);
}
#header-in... |
57cca746-3a40-48d0-aac8-3c6b3ba0bb7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Using a Spreadsheet to Make Good Decisions: Five Examples
I've been told that LessWrong is coming back now, so I'm cross-posting this rationality post of interest from the Effective Altruism forum.
-
We all make decisions every day. Some of these decisions are pretty inconsequential, such as what to have for an afte... |
cce7c602-f785-4dd5-ad42-135969cdbc3e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Mech Interp Challenge: November - Deciphering the Cumulative Sum Model
**I'm writing this post to discuss solutions to the October challenge, and present the challenge for this November.**
If you've not read the [first post in this sequence](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dpRuey9MDHNACSDtn/mech-interp-challenge-aug... |
44480dfb-20b6-45cd-9799-bba37597d7f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Humanitarian Phase Transition needed before Technological Singularity
TLDR: Author tries to explain (1) what HPT is, (2) why it is needed, and (3) why no additional technological breakthroughs are needed for HPT, not even AGI. The author does not follow the LessWrong terminology, e.g. 'alignment'.
(1) In ancient ... |
f7baaa59-f20e-4334-b68a-cd9b7cc9cf8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A belief propagation graph
I drew an illustration of belief propagation graph for the AI risk, after realizing that this is difficult to convey in words. Similar graphs are applicable to many other issues.
The issue, in brief: Ultra low latency (i.e. low signal delay) propagation from biases to AI risks, slightl... |
f760414c-f051-4e8b-b853-97023532c5e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Strategic Considerations Regarding Autistic/Literal AI
Epistemic Status: Take with a grain of salt. This post was written relatively quickly and it heavily relies on making an analogy between AI and human behaviour. This post kind of just takes a sledgehammer to these concerns and tries to reason it out using these an... |
819f685e-3bb7-4ca2-8ce3-6ee54fb91888 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Matryoshka Faraday Box
This story takes place in a universe created by Dov Random.
----------------------------------------
The room was buried six kilometers under Mount Olympus. It hovered in a vacuum, suspended above superconducting electromagnets. The whole containment machine was wrapped in a Matryoshka Faraday... |
84d266c3-4b4c-4cd0-9a5e-709b7850363b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What happens when LLMs learn new things? & Continual learning forever.
Motivation
The Good
Humans are not born with knowledge and wisdom. But over the course of a lifetime they manage gradually experience and learn about their world, some managing to become the Newtons, Einsteins, Confuciuses, Gandhis, an... |
349cbbe6-ed6a-4a32-b84a-c6646264864d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | PCR retrospective
my history
After I finished 8th grade, I started a "job" for a professor researching PCR techniques. I say "job" because I wasn't really expected to do anything productive; it was more, charity in the form of work history.
Recently, I was thinking back on how PCR and my thinking have changed since t... |
9149fff8-92b7-4b4a-98e3-f095f34c5d4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | s/acc: Safe Accelerationism Manifesto
Technology has been a transformative force for our civilisation and it is poised to play an increasing role going forward. Recent progress in Artificial Intelligence spurred discussions about how we should approach the development of the next generation of AI applications, potenti... |
1495e513-f9a4-4e9c-8f30-723559e7db58 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | An attempt to break circularity in science
We do science using the data we collected through our senses and we use science to understand how our senses work. Although I lack any rigorous formulation of the problem, the following plan seems interesting and I want to share it with you.
p=.mjx-chtml {display: inline-blo... |
96ea8d09-1f8b-44a8-ac30-ed9106580931 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mechanism Design for AI Safety - Reading Group Curriculum
The Mechanism Design for AI Safety (MDAIS) reading group, announced here, is currently in it's eighth of twelve weeks. I'm very excited by the quality of discussions we've had so far, and for the potential of future work from members of this group. If you're in... |
d8320477-50e7-4fe3-beb4-978cb4bbac37 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3793
When I started this dive into acausal trade, I expected to find subtle and interesting theoretical considerations. Instead, most of the issues are practical. Theory The big two theoretical questions are whether we model infinite worlds with infinitely many agents, and whether we should agree to some ' pre... |
b15e993d-3d45-4542-a28d-67e49ce9764f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What about non-degree seeking?
I'm considering taking remote non-degree-seeking graduate classes for ML. What are the best schools for that in terms of ease of admission and low costs? |
35fd84af-d090-4edc-8acd-f8c4c1636bce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety Prerequisites Course: Revamp and New Lessons
Previous post: Fundamentals of Formalisation Level 7: Equivalence Relations and Orderings. First post: Fundamentals of Formalisation level 1: Basic Logic.
Nine months ago we, RAISE, have started creating a Math Prerequisites for AI Safety online course. It has mo... |
01ec5907-acf7-45a8-b0df-cc6222f99b5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What if memes are common in highly capable minds?
The meme-theoretic view of humans says: Memes are to humans as sailors are to ships in the age of sail.
If you want to predict where a ship will go, ask: Is it currently crewed by the French or the English? Is it crewed by merchants, pirates, or soldiers? These are th... |
dccd0ca3-3be8-4ee3-a414-fb69295350a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where did the idea of x-risk come from?
Recently on the Futurati Podcast we interviewed Thomas Moynihan on how humanity came to discover the possibility of its own extinction and, with it, the full value of ourselves and our potential future.
Ideas are the basic means by which we grapple with the staggering complexi... |
2342a94f-a944-4aee-a1b8-1750289f86df | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | High impact job opportunity at ARIA (UK)
ARIA (Advanced Research + Invention Agency) is the UK government's new research funding body based on the US Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).
They have £800m in committed funding and are looking for a founding programme director to allocate a £50m budget. Thi... |
6b7ce8b0-6a7b-4479-afe9-15c196a907ef | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Programmatic backdoors: DNNs can use SGD to run arbitrary stateful computation
*Thanks to Kshitij Sachan for helpful feedback on the draft of this post.*
If you train a neural network with SGD, you can embed within the weights of the network any state machine: the network encodes the state st.mjx-chtml {display: inli... |
26a5b9e0-bb47-443f-a0fd-18a5307c8019 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is Dylan Hadfield-Menell's thesis on?
[Hadfield-Menell's PhD thesis](https://www2.eecs.berkeley.edu/Pubs/TechRpts/2021/EECS-2021-207.pdf) argues three main claims (paraphrased):
- Outer alignment failures are a problem.
- We can mitigate this problem by adding uncertainty.
- We can model this as [Cooperative I... |
29def138-7313-43d9-826c-b0f4b4f06ba7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Superintelligent AI mentioned as a possible risk by Bill Gates
"There are other potential problems in the future that Mr. Ridley could have addressed but did not. Some would put super-intelligent computers on that list. My own list would include large-scale bioterrorism or a pandemic ... But bioterrorism and pandemics... |
7da935b4-1d52-4bca-b994-69ab3367e9b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "How conservative" should the partial maximisers be?
Due to the problem of building a strong V-enhancer when we want a U-enhancer - and the great difficulty in defining U, the utility we truly want to maximise - many people have suggested reducing the V-increasing focus of the AI. The idea is that, as long as the AI d... |
ede5eabc-4f11-486f-995a-cc8fa052bd91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An AI, a box, and a threat
Inspired by The AI in a box boxes you, Matryoshka Faraday Box, and I attempted the AI Box Experiment (and lost).
This is part creative writing exercise, part earnest attempt at constructing an argument that could persuade me to let the AI out of the box. It may be disturbing to read.
-----... |
d3bc35fe-b55e-4be5-a5de-8fb0749d0f43 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dominic Cummings: how the Brexit referendum was won
|
e63087cd-2f63-4f59-8be0-afb88c1e6a8a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Determining core values & existential self-determination
Determining core values & existential self-determination
--------------------------------------------------------
[Rationalism](https://www.readthesequences.com/) is about [epistemic rationality and instrumental rationality](https://www.readthesequences.com/Wh... |
90611d82-22cc-48ec-84d8-99596a6988a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Mini Talks
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Mini Talks
WHEN: 21 August 2016 03:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture
This week, we will be meeting in the courtyard to take turns delivering short lectures on random topics.
A... |
5ad42c3c-ea34-46ee-b034-9178fc15cdf4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gears-Level Models are Capital Investments
Mazes
The usual method to solve a maze is some variant of babble-and-prune: try a path, if it seems to get closer to the exit then keep going, if it hits a dead end then go back and try another path. It's a black-box method that works reasonably well on most mazes.
However, ... |
e1de1b44-cf57-47c1-96f1-04c07f3e6053 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Stop posting prompt injections on Twitter and calling it "misalignment"
"Exploits" of large language models that get them to explain steps to build a bomb or write bad words are techniques for misuse, not examples of misalignment in the model itself. Those techniques are engineered by clever users trying to make an LL... |
289da236-495c-48f5-8c48-2f3c7697f1b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing METR's Autonomy Evaluation Resources
This is METR’s collection of resources for evaluating potentially dangerous autonomous capabilities of frontier models. The resources include a task suite, some software tooling, and guidelines on how to ensure an accurate measurement of model capability. Building on th... |
7c65135e-9bfb-4118-b7ac-f496a8b0c900 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | EDT solves 5 and 10 with conditional oracles
Introduction and motivation
===========================
The starting point for this post is a comment I wrote on [Paul's post on EDT vs CDT](https://sideways-view.com/2018/09/19/edt-vs-cdt/):
>
> One argument for CDT over EDT that you didn’t mention in this post: Supp... |
f736be13-8c4f-4fda-b4a2-c537de7751ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What to draw from Macintyre et al 2015?
Last week it seems the West decided that we should all wear masks and wear cloth masks if we don't have proper masks.
As Scott Alexander pointed out, Macintyre et al 2015 seems to be a only controlled trial of cloth masks and it writes:
> For example, a contaminated cloth mask... |
333acc10-8b9e-4efe-9464-39845cc49284 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | There have been 3 planes (billionaire donors) and 2 have crashed
I'd rather not go into the details about which billionaires are which, so if it's actually 4 and 3 or 6 and 4, then that may or may not be debatable.
But it seems to me like the main thing that people on EAforum can achieve is figuring out how to handle... |
7cdb9e6f-b5a1-4fef-bf6d-9361b0b51414 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI Safety Europe Retreat 2023 Retrospective
This is a short impression of the AI Safety Europe Retreat (AISER) 2023 in Berlin.
**Tl;dr:** 67 people working on AI safety technical research, AI governance, and AI safety field building came together for three days to learn, connect, and make progress on AI safety.
This is the post with some needed concepts and discussion that didn't cleanly fit into any other section, so it might be a bit of a rambly mess.
Specifically, this post splits into two parts. One is assorted musings about when to defer to past-you vs current-you when making decis... |
6788c1f1-7c82-4f91-8a52-b8341298b443 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Let’s talk about uncontrollable AI
In another post, I published four hypotheses on uncontrollable AI as an existential risk. Here I give some background on why I chose this particular framing.
Talking about existential risks from AI with people outside of the AI alignment or effective altruism communities can be quit... |
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