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66d0c3aa-cef0-40ba-a0f3-42af4c2cd296 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeding a productive culture: a working hypothesis
This is a compact account of my current working hypothesis for what's wrong with our culture and what needs to be done.
I'm not trying to explain my reasoning fully here - some of this I've already covered, some I plan to cover later. I expect no one to be persuaded ... |
4240de00-656e-4cd6-9d15-5caed1c2f4aa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | The n-th root of m is either an integer or irrational
There is an intuitive way to see that for any natural numbers $m$ and $n$, $\sqrt[https://arbital.com/p/n](https://arbital.com/p/n)m$ will always either be an integer or an irrational number.
Suppose that there was some $\sqrt[https://arbital.com/p/n](https://arbi... |
de834c37-9c83-4177-a6a5-cd21ee09de0a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AR Glasses: Much more than you wanted to know
I.
AR Glasses are an unusually foreseeable technological innovation. They’ve been around in pop culture and science fiction for a long time. Everybody seems to agree that at some point, be it in 5, 10 or 20 years, they’ll be as ubiquitous as smartphones and eventually rep... |
00b53577-dfaa-4be5-8242-2d929caef041 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Physicalism: consciousness as the last sense
Follow-up to There just has to be something more, you know? and The two insights of materialism.
I have alluded that one cause for the common reluctance to consider physicalism — in particular, that our minds can in principle be characterized entirely by physical states — ... |
fe7dc2a8-6171-4945-b875-5c5c72ff2ffa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Apply to the second iteration of the ML for Alignment Bootcamp (MLAB 2) in Berkeley [Aug 15 - Fri Sept 2]
Redwood Research is running another iteration of MLAB, our bootcamp aimed at helping people who are interested in AI alignment learn about machine learning, with a focus on ML skills and concepts that are relevant... |
a87ab3f7-ec4e-46b0-967c-36aab9c3039c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Fraction of Global Market Capitalization as the Best Currency
When I read about how dath ilani use unskilled labor hours as currency, it shattered my suspension of disbelief and I noticed confusion. It's hard to imagine that a coordinated utopia would consciously choose this as the best option.
> Every part of dath... |
1d1cc4d7-1177-41cf-a6f5-ff06eb469a0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] No Boltzmann Brains in an Empty Expanding Universe
Another link to Sean Carroll's blog: Squelching Boltzmann Brains (And Maybe Eternal Inflation). The discussion of Boltzmann brains has come up many times on LW, starting from this Eliezer's post. Now Sean and his collaborators argue that in an empty expanding u... |
a1f918d1-5726-4c10-8c46-fda8c404caf9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Generalized associative law
Given an [associative](https://arbital.com/p/3h4) [operator](https://arbital.com/p/3h7) $\cdot$ and a [list](https://arbital.com/p/3kd) $[b, c, \ldots](https://arbital.com/p/a,)$ of parameters, all ways of reducing the list to a single element by combining adjacent pairs yield the same resu... |
f00f6f52-6d7a-4764-8cbd-32e1206228be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are You More Real If You're Really Forgetful?
It's a standard assumption, in anthropic reasoning, that effectively, we simultaneously exist in every place in Tegmark IV that simulates this precise universe (see e. g. here).
How far does this reasoning go?
Suppose that the universe's state is described by n low-level... |
579a0f90-2738-4b2d-8717-039d89349530 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | High Challenge
There's a class of prophecy that runs: "In the Future, machines will do all the work. Everything will be automated. Even labor of the sort we now consider 'intellectual', like engineering, will be done by machines. We can sit back and own the capital. You'll never have to lift a finger, ever again.... |
299877ef-3daa-482e-9a3d-01840cc11512 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "What does it take to—as in yesterday's example—see a "baseball game" as "An artificial group conflict in which you use a long wooden cylinder to whack a thrown spheroid, and then run between four safe positions"? What does it take to play the rationalist version of Taboo, in which the goal is not to find a synonym tha... |
2c6c35fa-99f5-4b89-b6c3-6b24acc6b6e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On DeepMind’s Frontier Safety Framework
ON DEEPMIND’S FRONTIER SAFETY FRAMEWORK
Previously: On OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework, On RSPs.
THE FIRST TWO FRAMEWORKS
To first update on Anthropic and OpenAI’s situation here:
Anthropic’s RSP continues to miss the definitions of the all-important later levels, in additio... |
46b36604-b32a-4d1b-8970-0a8d72455a70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Ideology Is Not The Movement
I.
Why is there such a strong Sunni/Shia divide?
I know the Comparative Religion 101 answer. The early Muslims were debating who was the rightful caliph. Some of them said Abu Bakr, others said Ali, and the dispute has been going on ever since. On the other hand, that was fourteen hu... |
fe60f745-c0a2-4d12-b569-53edc50e7a75 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | ChatGPT tells stories, and a note about reverse engineering: A Working Paper
*Cross-posted from* [*New Savanna*](https://new-savanna.blogspot.com/2023/03/chatgpt-tells-stories-and-note-about.html)*.*
I've uploaded a new working paper. Title above, links, abstract, content, and opening sections below.
Academia.edu: <... |
941af8cf-0b98-4b5a-b3da-a03f729e9b1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Singularity Summit 2008
FYI all: The Singularity Summit 2008 is coming up, 9am-5pm October 25th, 2008 in San Jose, CA. This is run by my host organization, the Singularity Institute. Speakers this year include Vernor Vinge, Marvin Minsky, the CTO of Intel, and the chair of the X Prize Foundation.
Before anyone pos... |
4c779a21-bd17-4106-a7b9-85f9d0f9a313 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Technocracy and the Space Age
Earlier I proposed a hypothesis that the 1930s–60s in the US were characterized by the attempt to achieve progress through top-down control by a technical elite.
The 1997 preface to Walter McDougall’s Pulitzer-winning The Heavens and the Earth: A Political History of the Space Age adds s... |
aa2a8d49-462b-4d52-acae-16e40ed19e85 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Classifying Options for Deep Reinforcement Learning
###
1 Introduction
Recent advances in reinforcement learning have focused on using deep
neural networks to represent the state-action value function
(Q-function) [[Mnih et al.2015](#bib.bibx10)] or a policy function
[[Levine et al.2015](#bib.bibx7)]. The successe... |
92f6e85b-a79d-426c-a0e0-f94523f70c3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Auckland meet up Saturday Nov 28th
For any New Zealanders out there, there is a tentative meet up at the Messe bar at 2pm on the 28th of November (Saturday). Just in case you are shy, there will be at least two people there!
Write a comment and/or please contact me on my cell: 021 039 8554, if you are interested in c... |
bdd5e9a8-9a3e-4ec3-afc9-46dea9991252 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shortening the Unshortenable Way
or
A Starting Point for Defense against Flexible Dark Artists and Circumstances
In On Seeking a Shortening of the Way the assertion “Maybe we're not geniuses because we don't bother paying attention to ordinary things” caught my eye. Certainly! I said. Obviously if we were able... |
20c641bd-6cd3-47a4-b33e-5cc8d0a0f4a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | UC Santa Barbara Rationalists Unite - Saturday, 6PM
Anna Salamon and I are calling for a Less Wrong meetup here in sunny Santa Barbara. Anna and Steve Rayhawk, Less Wrong's most successful (and so far, only) writing duo are on their way through SB, and I know there's a few LWers hiding in Isla Vista and in Santa Barba... |
3c57d849-d8f3-4911-9aed-4645a7a8ecc4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Cleveland Ohio Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Cleveland Ohio Meetup
WHEN: 28 July 2013 02:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Gypsy Bean Coffee, Cleveland, OH
Time and place are tentative. Discussion is occurring on the cleveland mailing list: less-wrong-cleveland@googlegroups.com
Discussion article for t... |
80f0e703-d631-4fc3-a572-8a2e37818d69 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Limitless, a Nootropics-Centered Movie
Limitless is a movie coming out this Friday which includes nootropics as a major plot device. I think that the way they are portrayed in the movie, and the subsequent media discussion (if any) about nootropics would be of interest here, even if the movie isn't.
From what I can t... |
388893ca-9d21-4e7c-b5a0-45c76acf3059 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "When I showed up at the Singularity Institute, I was surprised to find that 30-60 papers' worth of material was lying around in blog posts, mailing list discussions, and people's heads — but it had never been written up in clear, well-referenced academic articles.
Why is this so? Writing such articles has many clear b... |
f549f881-352c-4581-a52e-d31222e42601 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Your Price for Joining
Today's post, Your Price for Joining was originally published on 26 March 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> The game-theoretical puzzle of the Ultimatum game has its reflection in a real-world dilemma: How much do you demand that an existing group adjust toward you, bef... |
c7c18426-03f2-4c65-a79e-295915e25a3d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Historical economic growth trends
An analysis of historical growth supports the possibility of radical increases in growth rate. Naive extrapolation of long-term trends would suggest massive increases in growth rate over the coming century, although growth over the last half-century has lagged very significantly behin... |
96743514-b604-4893-b891-3b65d649f897 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | November 2015 Newsletter
| |
| --- |
|
**Research updates**
* A new paper: [Leó Szilárd and the Danger of Nuclear Weapons](https://intelligence.org/2015/10/07/new-report-leo-szilard-and-the-danger-of-nuclear-weapons/)
* New at IAFF: [Subsequence Induction](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=482)
* A shortened ver... |
17f738ea-e57e-40d1-9a95-0d17c97d8dbc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My interview with Nikola Danaylov for 'Singularity 1 on 1' [link]
Here. Audio and video available. |
b387a993-6299-47ea-9d54-f9893c0b690b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Taking "correlation does not imply causation" back from the internet
(An idea I had while responding to this quotes thread)
"Correlation does not imply causation" is bandied around inexpertly and inappropriately all over the internet. Lots of us hate this.
But get this: the phrase, and the most obvious follow-up ph... |
5b3be319-380c-4039-8f26-b6e14f05c546 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What are the differences between all the iterative/recursive approaches to AI alignment?
I have been trying to understand all the iterative/recursive approaches to AI alignment. The approaches I am aware of are:
* ALBA (I get the vague impression that this has been superseded by iterated amplification, so I haven't ... |
7b541785-4745-4934-8bff-9207c99e2f4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When is the right time to hole up?
The coronavirus isn't hitting us everywhere at the same time. The peak may yet vary by several weeks depending on location. Considering the economic costs of staying home, when is the right time to hole up, by the numbers?
The risk of infection probably depends on the population den... |
dabb5dad-49f6-4929-9a1f-c44da3f6ade5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI governance and strategy: a list of research agendas and work that could be done.
AI governance and strategy: a list of research agendas and work that could be done
This document was written by Nathan Barnard and Erin Robertson.
We have compiled a list of research agendas in AI governance, and we’ve written some po... |
587d12d5-1e66-454a-be83-29bf93114c20 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Relation Projection Fallacy and the purpose of life
I bet most people here have realized this explicitly or implicitly, but this comment has inspired me to write a short, linkable summary of this error pattern, with a name:
The Relation Projection Fallacy: a denotational error whereby one confuses an n-ary relati... |
8ecd4dd0-c0bb-4af2-82fc-3aa2c9444f6a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AXRP Episode 11 - Attainable Utility and Power with Alex Turner
YouTube link
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I (Daniel Filan) have conversations with researchers about their papers. We discuss the paper and hopefully get a sense of why it’s been writ... |
81ecd937-7334-4979-bc52-5be16d6d4103 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Improving capital gains taxes
As I’ve mentioned, I think the tax code could be improved. In a departure from my usual style, this post fleshes out some fairness-based arguments for one of my favorite changes.
(I think that this proposal, and many of the arguments in favor, is old. Wikipedia quotes Joseph Stieglitz ma... |
2a71e2f5-6560-427b-ba3a-95fe2a819453 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Changing my mind about Christiano's malign prior argument
Overview
In the past I've been skeptical of Paul Christiano's argument that the universal distribution is "malign" in the sense that it contains adversarial subagents who might attempt acausal attacks. My underlying intuition was that the universal distribution... |
178705c0-bda8-4d9d-9527-e846ae1755c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DC Meetup: Sunday June 26th, 1:00 PM
Sunday June 26th
Core hours: 1 PM - 3PM
Apartment #1005
3001 Veazey Terrace
Washington, DC 20008
Please note this meetup is now regularly scheduled; you can see the Wiki for details, any changes will be sent out to the mailing list. If you're not on the list, and you want to know ... |
7d2e4fc5-18d6-4258-973e-c384acc4711b | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I was reading Legal Systems Very Different From Ours by David Friedman. The chapter on the Amish made a couple interesting claims, which changed my conception of that culture (although I'm not very confident that the Amish would endorse these claims as fair descriptions).Strategic Norms Around TechnologyThe Amish rela... |
ff51a000-66cd-417f-bef8-7334d2532de9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Translucent Thoughts Hypotheses and Their Implications
*Epistemic status: Uncertain about the validity of the claims I’m making here, and looking for feedback about the research directions I’m suggesting.*
*Thanks to Marius Hobbhahn, Johannes Treutlein, Siméon Campos, and Jean-Stanislas Denain for helpful feedbac... |
1a2a0335-ffc7-4625-982a-7be51d1ed783 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | InterLab – a toolkit for experiments with multi-agent interactions
This post introduces InterLab, a toolkit for experiments with multi-agent interaction. We plan to release more posts on the overall project, technical details, design considerations, and concrete research projects and ideas over the next few weeks to m... |
831a1528-7c96-4e37-9ef8-79d66a9ca1ee | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Belief revision as probability elimination
One way of understanding the reasoning behind [Bayes' rule](https://arbital.com/p/1lz) is that the process of updating $\mathbb P$ in the face of new evidence can be interpreted as the elimination of probability mass from $\mathbb P$ (namely, all the probability mass inconsis... |
3aad447d-e3e1-4cb1-ab50-85450a7ccbda | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [RFC] Possible ways to expand on "Discovering Latent Knowledge in Language Models Without Supervision".
Preface
=======
*We would like to thank the following people who contributed to the generation of ideas and provided feedback on this post: Alexandre Variengien, Daniel Filan, John Wentworth, Jonathan Claybrough, J... |
0494ca50-5786-4eaa-a4cf-8af263be24de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cooperating with your memetic immune system: False Faces
|
1fbc7d75-f55b-4ab1-b870-98165e182f6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What does flow feel like for "mental activities"?
Athletes often describe flow states with:
"My limbs just move on their own."
"Intense, totally absorbing focus."
"My mind is totally blank. I'm not thinking at all, just doing."
I'm very interested homing in on this "thinking" that is often reported absence in flow. ... |
891736e7-c1dd-4910-b44f-33feaabe257f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Large Language Models Converge on Brain-Like Word Representations
*This is a linkpost for* [*https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.01930*](https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.01930)
> One of the greatest puzzles of all time is how understanding arises from neural mechanics. Our brains are networks of billions of biological n... |
91e5dca3-e09f-42cf-850c-29a74a698e40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 5-second level case study: Value of information
This post started off as a comment to Vaniver's post Value of Information: Four Examples. This post also heavily builds on Eliezer's post The 5-Second Level. The five second level is the idea that to develop a rationality skill, you need to automatically recognize a prob... |
b8958465-d8a3-411b-9e2c-7d567358cfae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do people become ambitious?
I have a pet theory about how people become ambitious and agenty.
I was about to write up some insight porn about it, and then was like "you know, Raemon, you should probably actually think about about this for real, since it seems like Pet Psychology Theories are one of the easier way... |
cd9e4bda-3427-4594-8022-b202ee5bbef7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do you identify and counteract your biases in decision-making?
I'm thinking of making a career pivot from a product manager (PM) to UX researcher (UXR). I'm talking to current UXRs, people who pivoted from PM to UXR, and people who pivoted from UXR to PM. I'm trying to get a holistic view to make a decision on whe... |
7caf8f75-26b4-4fb3-8635-196376ce0dc8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Nov. 24 - Nov. 30, 2014
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the list-of-threads page ... |
2eec13c0-6631-4183-9295-b79ed9d5246d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup—Confess Your Unpopular Opinion
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup—Confess Your Unpopular Opinion
WHEN: 14 August 2013 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064, USA
How to get in: Go to the Westside Tavern in the upstairs Wine Bar (all ages welcome... |
1a9cfa0e-da3e-44cf-b88e-e620f52e77b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Response to "What does the universal prior actually look like?"
These are my thoughts on this post of Paul Christiano. I claim "malign" models do not form the bulk of the Solomonoff prior.
> Suppose that we use the universal prior for sequence prediction, without regard for computational complexity. I think that the ... |
4395d80c-7383-45a4-a91b-bca4b2ef5c51 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Podcast: Shoshannah Tekofsky on skilling up in AI safety, visiting Berkeley, and developing novel research ideas
**TLDR: I interviewed Shoshannah Tekofsky. You can listen to our conversation** [**here**](https://open.spotify.com/episode/7BMM1wPEygHhHUjTKBKOdm) **or read some highlights below.**
Some people in AI safe... |
06b45885-993d-4efd-aaa7-559a9aef5c76 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationalism in an Age of Egregores
Political tribes work by allowing people to emit costly signals of fealty to a tribe, where that signal of fealty ties your social status to the tribe's social status. So joining a political tribe is a status bet: you're hoping[1] that the tribe will gain in group status, relative to... |
b86c87c5-d8ff-444d-9d4e-216595dd22a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | grey goo is unlikely
> The nanomachinery builds diamondoid bacteria, that replicate with solar power and atmospheric CHON, maybe aggregate into some miniature rockets or jets so they can ride the jetstream to spread across the Earth's atmosphere, get into human bloodstreams and hide, strike on a timer.
— Eliezer Yudk... |
1c0f2aa7-e39a-42fc-aa65-71e366941799 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is a reasonable outside view for the fate of social movements?
Epistemic status: very hand-wavy and vague, but confident there is a substantial and well-understood core. Hoping for an answer that elucidates that core more clearly.
It is something of a rationalist folk theorem that social movements face the risk ... |
72b913a9-622a-4d83-a9d3-777ef8649fd4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dumbing down
In past few years I've been blogging in Slovak, that is, downscaling from writing in English, a language with 1457 million speakers to a language with 7 million speakers.
From the point of view of the writer, this has been a very different experience. It's not only that for a topic that interests one mil... |
0ccfe5ab-4595-44d6-91c5-e22ab476e9b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Neuroscientists Find That Status within Groups Can Affect IQ
http://media.caltech.edu/press_releases/13492
> To investigate the impact of social context on IQ, the researchers divided a pool of 70 subjects into groups of five and gave each individual a computer-based IQ test. After each question, an on-screen ... |
f857accd-1a8e-4001-b8c2-dee6b502305e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI takeoff story: a continuation of progress by other means
Thanks to Vladimir Mikulik for suggesting that I write this, and to Rohin Shah and Daniel Kokotajlo for kindly providing feedback.
Prologue
This is a story about a universe a lot like ours. In this universe, the scaling hypothesis — which very roughly says ... |
e5a1f40c-d4b7-4f21-85e0-3277548c4300 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Thoughts on Ben Garfinkel's "How sure are we about this AI stuff?"
I liked [this talk by Ben](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8PGcoLDjVk&fbclid=IwAR12bx55ySVUShFMbMSuEMFi1MGe0JeoEGe_Jh1YUaWtrI_kP49pJQTyT40).
I think it raises some very important points. OTTMH, I think the most important one is: **We have no good cri... |
e2abec6c-64c8-4eb8-a62f-5eacdc906d4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gender and Libido
There was a historical shift in beliefs.
> But the one we’re concerned with is that women’s libidos went from being considered as powerful or more so than men’s to being essentially erased. Pre-Renaissance examples of horny ladies abound, from the Greeks onward; make your own list, but do include Ch... |
b4270b80-fe23-455c-992f-fbc5c4beb844 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] "Junk" DNA revealed as information processing system?
http://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/at-work/test-and-measurement/re-imagining-our-genes-encode-project-reveals-genome-as-an-information-processing-system/?utm_source=techalert&utm_medium=email&utm_camp
> Just a few years ago, the prevailing wisdom said tha... |
7ffd8c3a-ad33-4ae2-a124-9f2670c41193 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI alignment with what?
Irrespective of technical questions, what values would you align an AGI with?
Or can you point me to works of alignment researchers that to some extent formulate these values? |
9591cdfb-9b76-4017-8c34-632c54e8fd16 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : London Meetup, 31st March
Discussion article for the meetup : London Meetup, 31st March
WHEN: 31 March 2013 01:00:00PM (+0000)
WHERE: Holborn, London
A usually-fortnightly meetup in the Shakespeare's Head pub by Holborn tube station.
We're switching from every other Sunday to every other-other Sunday, so ... |
595d7bf2-515c-4fb8-ba66-3977693b91e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Group rationality diary, 7/23/12
This is the public group instrumental rationality diary for the week of July 23rd. It's a place to record and chat about it if you have done, or are actively doing, things like:
* Established a useful new habit
* Obtained new evidence that made you change your mind about some belief... |
48a877e0-0f14-4147-939e-ddc2e885ae52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Failed Strategy of Artificial Intelligence Doomers
I like reading outsider accounts of things I'm involved in / things I care about. This essay is a serious attempt to look at and critique the big picture of AI x-risk reduction efforts over the last ~decade. While I strongly disagree with many parts of it, I canno... |
909487b4-fd52-44d3-88a2-2e248896394a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | PlayStation Odysseys
Cross-posted from Putanumonit.com
Note: heavy spoilers for one epic poem, minor spoilers for several epic video games.
Very related: the Greek myths are about loneliness.
----------------------------------------
Antihero’s Journey
Merriam-Webster defines “odyssey” as:
> n. a long wandering... |
56394847-2b5b-4536-af93-62104660ebf3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wargaming AGI Development
I think wargames would be a useful tool for exploring AGI development scenarios. More specifically, I mean wargames of the kind used to train military officers in strategy. I think this format would help explore things like timelines and takeoff scenarios, in a way that is both concrete and t... |
d0304f4b-5d57-42ea-afe0-8410b76e5c17 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
*Crossposted to* [*LessWrong*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YMsD7GA7eTg2BafQd/samotsvety-s-ai-risk-forecasts) *and* [*Foxy Scout*](https://www.foxy-scout.com/samotsvetys-ai-risk-forecasts/)
Introduction
============
In [my review of What We Owe The Future](https://forum.effectivealt... |
4c6e0f54-4dc0-4520-aec4-c516157c8c11 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "(Note: The Junto was a secret society formed by Benjamin Franklin for the purpose of intellectual discourse and business networking. The following is the debate rules they used to maintain an atmosphere of reason.) Our debates were to be under the direction of a president, and to be conducted in the sincere spirit of ... |
3a1ec5d7-5edb-4318-b9ba-dd983f144fbd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | No shortcuts to knowledge: Why AI needs to ease up on scaling and learn how to code
Will scaling deep learning produce human-level generality, or do we need a new approach? You may have read the exchange between Scott Alexander and Gary Marcus, and felt that there are some good arguments on both sides, some bad ones, ... |
f48de058-1894-4361-a591-7d05ef2d3547 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Helping Lily Make Dinner
Our house has a dinner rotation, with each of the six adults typically cooking once a week. Last week Lily (6y) asked if she could take a turn, and I offered to help her. Before I let her sign up I talked her through what this would entail: enough food for eight people, two of them vegan, with... |
2c3cfaa5-3515-4a26-bc46-82973afbf359 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [META] LW slow for other users?
LW pages are taking a very long time for me to load in general, relative to other sites. (Often, up to 3 or 4 times as long, if anyone would like, I'm willing to collect data on this) I have notoriously bad wireless in the building where I usually am at school and at home, but even on m... |
d26cc833-8e07-4d14-bf93-5a8203d8da04 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a list of projects to get started with Interpretability?
Big parts of Alignment outreach is done by trying to draw CS students into the filed, which gets even more present in the light of the EAGx's that happen around the world right now. There are endless courses that teach basic skills in the field, loads o... |
df945600-2000-4e1e-85e8-efcdfc024788 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Actionable-guidance and roadmap recommendations for the NIST AI Risk Management Framework
Updated 13 September 2022 with a link to our arXiv paper and corrections to out-of-date items
This is a linkpost to our working paper “Towards AI Standards Addressing AI Catastrophic Risks: Actionable-Guidance and Roadmap Recomm... |
429eb640-c267-4e52-8b5d-76c8902e0301 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Nightmare for Eliezer
Sometime in the next decade or so:
*RING*
*RING*
"Hello?"
"Hi, Eliezer. I'm sorry to bother you this late, but this is important and urgent."
"It better be" (squints at clock) "Its 4 AM and you woke me up. Who is this?"
"My name is BRAGI, I'm a recursively improving, self-modifying, art... |
e6ea77ae-7e0a-4985-b852-6917dbb3d8c1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Thoughts on self-inspecting neural networks.
While I have been contemplating this subject for quite some time, this is my first attempt at public communication of it. I have been thinking about AI implementation, as well as safety. I've been looking at ideas of various experts in the field and considering how things m... |
236dfe3f-c832-4834-a6dd-173b950c30ae | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is the "long reflection"?
The **long reflection** is a hypothesized period of time during which humanity works out how best to realize its long-term potential.
Some effective altruists, including [Toby Ord](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/tag/toby-ord) and [William MacAskill](https://forum.effectivealtruism.... |
880a8b23-0e23-4f67-ae84-eff623cefffe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bugout Bags for Disasters
Author: Finan Adamson
Last Updated: 09/2020
Overview
A bugout bag is a selection of supplies you put together to take with you when you have to leave your home in a hurry. This could be for a wide variety of disasters. You’ll want to have the basics you need to survive for sure, and then y... |
934d82d0-4991-45ed-876c-7e487a16ab95 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Omicron Post #9
For non-Omicron Covid news (and some additional Omicron news) this week, see the weekly post, the post on testing, and the post on the CDC nowcast.
First off, best possible personal news: Me and my family are feeling much better. The illness has passed. The rapid tests we did all came back negative, s... |
ba90d9cf-b272-43ff-80e1-978c06049732 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | I Know What You Meant: Learning Human Objectives by (Under)estimating Their Choice Set
I Introduction
---------------
Figure 1: (Left) User teaches an assistive robot arm to carry coffee upright. Because of their limitations, this user’s best demonstration unintentionally tilts the cup. (Middle) When the robot igno... |
adcc04be-010b-4aeb-96a9-fdedb58712c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Emotional tools for the beginner rationalist
Something that I haven't seen really discussed is what kind of emotional tools would be good for beginner rationalists. I'm especially interested in this topic since as part of my broader project of spreading rationality to a wide audience and thus raising the sanity waterl... |
9e0a21e9-6409-4da4-983f-a00e77daa4dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Correcting human error vs doing exactly what you're told - is there literature on this in context of general system design?
This seems to be like an important piece of puzzle for a safe strong AI. The question is inspired by "horse riding astronaut" debate (where ai fails to generate a proper image, and I speculate it... |
21741668-da63-4668-b9b9-5ae743eee798 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | comment to dude
Hi,
Things have settled down somewhat and I'm still interested in talking with you about this project.
I suppose, since you've told me some of your ideas in some detail, I should tell you some of mine, so we can get a back-and-forth going.
My initial vision was essentially to create Bayes... |
c3242fdc-efd6-43ce-be72-715d582b98c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow LW lecture centre meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow LW lecture centre meetup
WHEN: 09 August 2015 03:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Москва, ул.Свободы, 37
Welcome to the next lecture centre meetup!
Our plan:
* A talk about cognitive biases.
* Fallacymania game ( https://lesswrong-ru.hack... |
920cf27d-8855-40db-a4a1-ff67a47c4730 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Help! Name suggestions needed for Rationality-Inst!
The Singularity Institute wants to spin off a separate rationality-related organization. (If it's not obvious what this would do, it would e.g. develop things like the rationality katas as material for local meetups, high schools and colleges, bootcamps and seminars... |
556267d3-95fb-4414-b872-80053effed0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tabooing Science + an xkcd comic about the eclipse - "Honestly, it's not that scientific."
It occurred to me when I was reading XKCD a moment ago that given that there exists a strain of suspicion of anything 'science' among a certain crowd in this country (fundamentalists, creationists, etc), and a kind of mystique a... |
c925d43f-c747-43d3-af62-fa4407f602ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the risk of asking a counterfactual oracle a question that already had its answer erased?
In case you haven't heard of them before, here's an explanation of Counterfactual Oracles. If you erase the answer, you're not supposed to ask the same question to another oracle.
My first assumption was that this could ... |
1c941ee0-db8d-4416-bf74-c5edc6820712 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Implications—How Conscious Significance Could Inform Our lives
What is Conscious Significance
In a case for Conscious Significance, I outlined a framework for understanding our sense of autonomy, distinct from libertarian ‘free will’, that is determinism-agnostic and yet maintains all the important aspects of our cons... |
bcafe6f4-b07a-46df-a741-37c712352be0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An interesting speed dating study
I recently found an article in the New York Times that talks about a speed dating study that is going to be published in an upcoming issue of the journal Psychological Science. Given the usual state of science journalism, the fact that the article includes links that let me find a pre... |
808b189d-0e08-4c53-8c3c-e323c091a8eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on the Singularity Institute (SI)
This post presents thoughts on the Singularity Institute from Holden Karnofsky, Co-Executive Director of GiveWell. Note: Luke Muehlhauser, the Executive Director of the Singularity Institute, reviewed a draft of this post, and commented: "I do generally agree that your compla... |
acbe9a28-87bd-4c65-a90d-891b30f51c59 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | No, human brains are not (much) more efficient than computers
Epistemic status: grain of salt (but you can play around with the model yourself). There's lots of uncertainty in how many FLOP/s the brain can perform.
In informal debate, I've regularly heard people say something like, "oh but brains are so much more eff... |
02886e77-d6ad-4beb-87bb-5b98cc634cfa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | siderea: What New Atheism says
None |
7ea573b3-263b-49bd-ba86-6f46c910112b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Infernal Corrigibility, Fiendishly Difficult
*Enormous spoilers for* [*mad investor chaos and the woman of asmodeus (planecrash Book 1).*](https://www.glowfic.com/posts/4582)
1.
==
> [Aspexia Rugatonn, Grand High Priestess of Asmodeus,](https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1682427#reply-1682427) measures the woman kneel... |
34f73186-b294-425a-b3f9-3e3deb5f0dae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AXRP Episode 15 - Natural Abstractions with John Wentworth
YouTube link
Why does anybody care about natural abstractions? Do they somehow relate to math, or value learning? How do E. coli bacteria find sources of sugar? All these questions and more will be answered in this interview with John Wentworth, where we talk... |
51abd35a-f161-4428-8b9a-27b026a0aeb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Zen and Rationality: Continuous Practice
This is post 7/? about the intersection of my decades of LW-style rationality practice and my several years of Zen practice.
In today's installment, I look at continuous practice from a rationalist perspective.
In Zen there is a focus on continuous practice (gyoji dokan in Ja... |
2604fe93-890d-4796-9481-57c21a37813e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Age of Over-population (Chapter 4)
"In the Brave New World of my fable, the problem of human numbers in their relation to natural resources had been effectively solved. An optimum figure for world population had been calculated and numbers were maintained at this figure (a little under two billion, if I remember r... |
2e185f6e-5905-4fae-9aa9-079919a21309 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Investigating causal understanding in LLMs
This is a project by Marius Hobbhahn and Tom Lieberum. David Seiler contributed ideas and guidance.
Executive summary
We want to investigate the quality of LLMs causal world models in very simple settings. To this end, we test whether they can identify cause and effect in ... |
d35819ab-82d6-47cc-9b69-41de933fda51 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Another plausible scenario of AI risk: AI builds military infrastructure while collaborating with humans, defects later.
As was said before: "A lot of the AI risk arguments seem to come... with a very particular transhumanist aesthetic about the future (nanotech, ... etc.). I find these things (especially the transhum... |
9f8a31d9-6494-4763-a011-63c633dcb9f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self Improvement - Broad vs Focused
Lately I've been identifying a lot of things about myself that need improvement and thinking about ways to fix them. This post is intended to A) talk about some overall strategies for self-improvement/goal-focusing, and B) if anyone's having similar problems, or wants to talk abo... |
05632f57-5c3e-49ca-9f04-60c7f6f41aad | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post151
With many thanks to Sasha Frangulov for comments and editing Before publishing their o1-preview model system card on Sep 12, 2024, OpenAI tested the model on various safety benchmarks which they had constructed. These included benchmarks which aimed to evaluate whether the model could help with the develop... |
50c8159b-2baf-42f8-8941-e159801c427f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA & LW Forum Summaries - Holiday Edition (19th Dec - 8th Jan)
Supported by Rethink Priorities
Author's note: this post summarizes all 150+ karma posts on the forums since 19th December. We'll be back to our regular schedule and karma requirements next week :)
Usual preamble: This is part of a weekly series summariz... |
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