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2e6ffd48-cb7a-46e2-9165-7f0ee9064f9d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Integrated Method for Policy Making Using Argument Modelling and Computer Assisted Text Analysis
> IMPACT is conducting original research to develop and integrate formal, computational models of policy and arguments about policy, to facilitate deliberations about policy at a conceptual, language-independent level. The... |
bcdec688-cba2-4c81-a7ba-83363395f66b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup 06-28-2011
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup 06-28-2011
WHEN: 28 June 2011 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 10800 West Pico Blvd, Suite 312, Los Angeles, CA 90064
When: 7pm - 9pm June 28th.
Where: The Westside Pavillion - on the bridge, which connects Nordstrom 3rd floor with Barn... |
227d1e25-434a-4520-8eb7-c76c4ab84dcc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A sketch of an AI control safety case
This is a linkpost accompanying a new paper by UK AISI and Redwood Research. Please see the full paper for more details.
An illustration of the control evaluation that provides the core evidence used in our control safety case sketch. During the control evaluation, a red team c... |
44784cf8-f23d-4636-928c-9cb663d310c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ethical Inhibitions
Followup to: Entangled Truths, Contagious Lies, Evolutionary Psychology
What's up with that bizarre emotion we humans have, this sense of ethical caution?
One can understand sexual lust, parental care, and even romantic attachment. The evolutionary psychology of such emotions might be subtler t... |
6536711a-6be5-4d68-a251-5ba3af33fb34 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | MIRI’s 2018 Fundraiser
**Update January 2019**: MIRI’s 2018 fundraiser is now concluded.
[Target 1
$500,000
Completed](https://intelligence.org/feed/?paged=15#fundraiserModal)[Target 2
$1,200,000In Progress](https://intelligence.org/feed/?paged=15#fundraiserModal)
**$946,981**
|
|
$0... |
6043afdf-e133-43de-8c96-aaafa2671e49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You'll be who you care about
Eliezer wonders about the thread of conscious experience: "I don't think that, if I were really selfish, I could jump off a cliff knowing smugly that a different person would experience the consequence of hitting the ground."
Instead of wondering whether we should be selfish towards our f... |
e3fbba06-d12e-48e5-8eb8-57b457bfc077 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a definitive intro to punishing non-punishers?
Hey LW. I've just written a draft of an article, that I'm trying to edit to link to useful prior notes on various concepts. One of those concepts is the idea that we evolved to "punish the non-punishers", in order to ensure the costs of social punishment are shar... |
51d4c3db-b93d-46da-90c2-2f2fb347305d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | And the Winner is... Many-Worlds!
This is one of several shortened indices into the Quantum Physics Sequence.
Macroscopic quantum superpositions, a.k.a. the "many-worlds interpretation" or MWI, was proposed in 1957 and brought to the general attention of the scientific community in 1970. Ever since, MWI has steadily... |
a6b5ad15-5223-4a2c-bfb8-66e27718d495 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Raised in Technophilia
Today's post, Raised in Technophilia was originally published on 17 September 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> When Eliezer was quite young, it took him a very long time to get to the point where he was capable of considering that the dangers of technology might outwei... |
93c02b8a-eda5-4f94-b727-96196650d658 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evaluating LLaMA 3 for political sycophancy
TLDR: I evaluated LLaMA v3 (8B + 70B) for political sycophancy using one of the two datasets I created. The results for this dataset suggest that sycophancy definitely occurs in a blatant way for both models though more clearly for 8B than for 70B. There are hints of politi... |
8c188c63-3653-479d-ad03-9e04f90f09c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How can we estimate how many people are C19 infected in an area?
My favorite dashboard is Our World in Data: it has time series and maps and lets me choose which countries to graph. But it’s only showing confirmed cases, and doesn’t show any unit smaller than a country. Plus on the day I’m writing this, the US was mi... |
c765b1ac-1f05-4955-864c-9a3f3c6612e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does the Universal Geometry of Embeddings paper have big implications for interpretability?
Rishi Jha, Collin Zhang, Vitaly Shmatikov and John X. Morris published a new paper last week called Harnessing the Universal Geometry of Embeddings.
Abstract of the paper (bold was added by me):
> We introduce the first metho... |
2aea61a7-4709-48c6-804d-6f33e8a47487 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Market Capitalization is Semantically Invalid
Note: I didn't write this essay, nor do I own the blog where it came from. I'm just sharing it to see what other people think about it. The essay text is displayed below this line.
In this essay, I will debunk the concept of market capitalization.
But first, let’s consid... |
417e2e45-bd4d-4a99-8797-15dbba5c7017 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against Facebook: The Stalking
Epistemic Status: Nothing we didn’t basically already know, but felt obligated to share
Previously: Against Facebook, Against Facebook: Comparison to Alternatives and Call to Action
Also Previously But Fully Optional: Help Us Find Your Blog (and others), How to Destroy Civilization
I ... |
66ab4958-0f8d-43cb-a4eb-2bc53c5e46f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Neural Categories
In Disguised Queries, I talked about a classification task of "bleggs" and "rubes". The typical blegg is blue, egg-shaped, furred, flexible, opaque, glows in the dark, and contains vanadium. The typical rube is red, cube-shaped, smooth, hard, translucent, unglowing, and contains palladium. For the... |
20b10cca-7fe1-4352-84da-8f7f5e592af4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/distill | Distill Scientific Journal | Self-Organising Textures
### Contents
[Patterns, textures and physical processes](#patterns-textures-and-physical-processes)
* [From Turing, to Cellular Automata, to Neural Networks](#from-turing-to-cellular-automata-to-neural-networks)
* [NCA as pattern generators](#nca-as-pattern-generators)
* [Related work](#rela... |
c95df073-c2a9-40ff-933d-29b96789425f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Fort Collins, Colorado Meetup Thursday 7pm *New Place*
Discussion article for the meetup : Fort Collins, Colorado Meetup Thursday 7pm *New Place*
WHEN: 02 August 2012 07:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 1129 W. Elizabeth St. Fort Collins 80521
The move to Thursdays is working well. Back to Momo Lomo near campus for ... |
672d764f-a79b-4b5d-aa0d-43689f8fcfee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is AI safety research less parallelizable than AI research?
It seems intuitive to me why that would be the case. And I've seen Eliezer make the claim a few times. But I can't find an article describing the idea. Does anyone have a link? |
618d143f-e939-48e0-a752-bb6455ee5077 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post42
We have released a new paper, Ctrl-Z: Controlling AI Agents via Resampling . This is the largest and most intricate study of control techniques to date: that is, techniques that aim to prevent catastrophic failures even if egregiously misaligned AIs attempt to subvert the techniques. We extend control proto... |
724059a8-8823-4e53-97ed-62d7d2a022ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Holden Karnofsky's Singularity Institute critique: other objections
The sheer length of GiveWell co-founder and co-executive director Holden Karnofsky's excellent critique of the Singularity Institute means that it's hard to keep track of the resulting discussion. I propose to break out each of his objections into a ... |
0dd6b93b-f2c7-4205-b000-95aeed1545b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ML Safety at NeurIPS & Paradigmatic AI Safety? MLAISU W49
Watch this week’s episode on YouTube or listen to the audio version here.
This week, we see how to break ChatGPT, how to integrate diverse opinions in an AI and look at a bunch of the most interesting papers from the ML safety workshop happening right now!
C... |
b2735c4d-810c-4fc7-919f-9d935ecfc70f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A toy model of the control problem
EDITED based on suggestions for improving the model
Jaan Tallinn has suggested creating a toy model of the control problem, so that it can be analysed without loaded concepts like "autonomy", "consciousness", or "intentionality". Here a simple (too simple?) attempt:
A controls ... |
d2695f0f-97f2-4fe6-ab3c-895989ae2b32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Non-Monotonic Infra-Bayesian Physicalism
Infra-Bayesian physicalism (IBP) is a mathematical formalization of computationalist metaphysics: the view that whether something exists is a matter of whether a particular computation is instantiated anywhere in the universe in any way. In this post, we cover the basics of IBP... |
d6b50954-3b31-4c65-a67a-205a31516647 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Reservations about Discovering Latent Knowledge (Burns, Ye, et al)
[This is a cross-post from my blog at aizi.substack.com.]
This is my second post on Burns, Ye, et al’s recent preprint Discovering Latent Knowledge in Language Models Without Supervision. My first post summarizes what they did and what I liked abou... |
d7e91aca-0694-493d-bdc7-578dc8cc8a96 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Necessary, But Not Sufficient
There seems to be something odd about how people reason in relation to themselves, compared to the way they examine problems in other domains.
In mechanical domains, we seem to have little problem with the idea that things can be "necessary, but not sufficient". For example, if your car... |
7eeb668c-0526-4f44-b260-2855504f3ecf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Existential AI Safety is NOT separate from near-term applications
Stephen Casper, scasper@mit.edu. Thanks to Alex Lintz and Daniel Dewey for feedback.
This is a reply but not an objection to a recent post from Paul Christiano titled AI alignment is distinct from its near term applications. The post is fairly brief a... |
81dd25cf-d7af-48f8-990f-6e0075fdf668 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How far along are you on the Lesswrong Path?
How far along are you on the Path?
Some say the Path has always existed and there have always been those who have walked it. The Path has many names and there are many notions of what the Path is.
To some the path is called philosophy, to others it is the art of rationalit... |
7275a076-e196-4d33-9634-71cc6e1724e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sensual Experience
Modern day gamemakers are constantly working on higher-resolution, more realistic graphics; more immersive sounds—but they're a long long way off real life.
Pressing the "W" key to run forward as a graphic of a hungry tiger bounds behind you, just doesn't seem quite as sensual as running franticall... |
991041ff-0c5e-4b7a-80af-6c062f5416c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Strategyproof Mechanisms: Impossibilities
In which the limits of dominant-strategy implementation are explored. The Gibbard-Satterthwaite dictatorship theorem for unrestricted preference domains is stated, showing no universal strategyproof mechanisms exist, along with a proof for a special case.
Due to the Revelatio... |
9b723294-abde-4e44-aa33-f941a48b2a77 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weak evidence that eating vegetables makes you live longer
People vary in how much they can taste bitter things. If you go around giving people the chemical Phenylthiocarbamide (PTC), which you shouldn't do, because it is toxic, you'll find that some people taste it as a strongly bitter while others can't taste it at ... |
83a3a388-252a-44f0-a7a7-20a3174f6c85 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | 2-D Robustness
*This is a short note on a framing that was developed in collaboration with Joar Skalse, Chris van Merwijk and Evan Hubinger while working on [Risks from Learned Optimization](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820), but which did not find a natural place in the report.*
---
Mesa-optimisation is a kind of... |
a29802c2-8893-424e-b9a1-8d6aec28b6ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Proving the Geometric Utilitarian Theorem
This is a supplemental post to Geometric Utilitarianism (And Why It Matters), which sets out to prove what I think are the main interesting results about Geometric Utilitarianism:
* Maximizing a geometric weighted average G(_,ψ) can always lead to Pareto optimality.
* Given... |
3b15bc94-df10-43fa-b693-45b25b0c01d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Real Fanfic Is The Friends We Made Along The Way
[This is a humorous short story about an AI that is almost aligned... but not quite. It was originally written for the 2022 EA writing retreat, Ink At The Abbey, and was generally well received]
The Real Fanfic Is The Friends We Made Along The Way
by Eneasz Brodsk... |
9653549d-205b-4807-8144-a1e4bd5d46fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Desiderata for Normalizers
This work originated at MIRI Summer Fellows and originally involved Pasha Kamyshev, Dan Keys, Johnathan Lee, Anna Salamon, Girish Sastry, and Zachary Vance. I was asked to look over two drafts and some notes, clean them up, and post here. Especial thanks to Zak and Pasha for drafts on which ... |
50ad8086-14ff-4615-bd61-7fe25353b2e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Luck based medicine: angry eldritch sugar gods edition
Introduction
Epistemic status: everything is stupid. I’m pretty sure I’m directionally right but this post is in large part correcting previous statements of mine, and there’s no reason to believe this is the last correction. Even if I am right, metabolism is high... |
0c30227b-2d25-45e2-b24d-a892f55c0efb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What we Know vs. How we Know it?
Two weeks ago I said:
> The other concept I’m playing with is that “what we know” is inextricable from “how we know it”. This is dangerously close to logical positivism, which I disagree with my limited understanding of. And yet it’s really improved my thinking when doing historical r... |
19265666-70bc-41b1-bce6-1ffbdf25be2f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Fixed-point solutions to the regress problem in normative uncertainty
Introduction People sometimes make claims about how we ought to act in the face of empirical uncertainty. A "decision theory" is a collection of such claims. Because they make demands on our behavior, decision theories are "norms". (Descriptive clai... |
c297854f-2cb9-43ec-8bcd-7702148cf18f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Frequent sauna bathing protects men against dementia
|
5de763fb-c475-4ef2-8078-793b667d1089 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | SIA is basically just Bayesian updating on existence
I love the [sleeping Beauty problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem), but I think it leads people astray, by making them think that anthropic reasoning is about complicated situations with multiple duplicates. That leads to people saying erron... |
79887ab2-cf3a-44bf-9304-92f66db489f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anthropic CEO calls for RSI
"If China can't get millions of chips, we'll (at least temporarily) live in a unipolar world, where only the US and its allies have these models.
It's unclear whether the unipolar world will last, but there's at least the possibility that, because AI systems can eventually help make even s... |
8c5ff644-be45-4fae-8a5f-f8e0037d6f6a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | To Match the Greats, Don’t Follow In Their Footsteps
People who dream of being like the great innovators in history often try working in the same fields - physics for people who dream of being like Einstein, biology for people who dream of being like Darwin, etc.
But this seems backwards to me. To be as revolutionary... |
75f1ccd9-2e37-40ab-91e4-571da5369d85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Cryonics Strategy Space
In four paragraphs I’m going to claim, “It is highly likely reading this article will increase your chance of living forever”. I’m pretty sure you won’t disagree with me. First, however, I’d like to talk about how much I don’t like Monopoly.
I play a lot of Monopoly, because I am forced in... |
e2a52c66-d255-4f40-98e9-f042c88ef97b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What If: An Earthquake in Taiwan?
Briefly and without any research myself, I learned today that Taiwan, where most of the most advanced chip fabs are, is very prone to earthquakes. Which are bad for very-high-precision manufacturing.
It would also be right in the middle of any conflict between the US and China.
How ... |
5a09ac20-338a-4d5b-8d0e-6d7781c87b09 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is your Personal Knowledge Management system?
> Personal knowledge management (PKM) is a collection of processes that a person uses to gather, classify, store, search, retrieve and share knowledge in their daily activities (Grundspenkis 2007) and the way in which these processes support work activities (Wright 20... |
9b28460a-1bcb-4f8d-b009-554d8354ee87 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Consider working more hours and taking more stimulants
Epistemic status: amphetamines
> Sooner or later, the great men turn out to be all alike. They never stop working. They never lose a minute. It is very depressing.
>
> — V.S. Pritchett
EA produces much talk about an obligation to donate some or even most of you... |
1f8ef4b5-cf56-4e73-81c4-4c680b42cb85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beyond Democracy: A System Where Citizens Vote with Their Taxes
A problem with all systems of government is that whenever a person is given power over something, he can do whatever he wants with that power. An example might be that citizens vote to fund a police force, but then the police extract protection money from... |
3c909d47-2c86-47c0-bc9a-85656b68a7b6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Towards the Quantification of Safety Risks in Deep Neural Networks
1 Introduction
---------------
In recent years, we witness significant progress has been made in AI, especially the deep neural networks that can achieve surprisingly high performance on various tasks, including image recognition [[1](#bib.bib1)], n... |
7316a01b-a0fa-45c4-afb8-2540340315e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lies Told To Children
Growing up, as a kid, I was always told that every sapient life is precious, everything that thinks and knows itself -
Yes, this is a tale about lies-told-to-children. You'll probably figure it out yourself before too long. For now, just listen.
Where was I? Right. As children, we were alwa... |
d40e2450-3839-41af-bb37-205651725afa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Educating people about rationality: where are we?
Motivation. There are a number of ideas in rationality that seem to me so important and useful that it's worthwhile systematically exposing the general population to them. Off the top of my head, these might include general ideas about better decision making, cognitive... |
4643991d-34a1-44d7-b7f9-1b1b238b9762 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does turning on the shower help reduce wildfire smoke in the air?
Rain is said to help air quality not only by stopping fires but also by removing smoke particles from the air. Does turning on the shower also remove smoke particles from the air, or does something different happen higher up in the atmosphere vs in a sh... |
11bdce13-51ab-4608-8546-8e4d86cdc47b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reaction and Reply to Sasha Chapin on Bad In-group Norms
EPISTEMIC STATUS: STREAM-OF-CONSCIOUSNESS
Earlier today, my co-blogger Devin posted Sasha Chapin's article, "Your Intelligent, Conscientious In-group Has Bad Social Norms Too" to a mutual Discord server. He specifically wanted to know our friend group's thought... |
a14a095b-25f2-4103-bae1-ec058855051d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decision Theory is multifaceted
Related: Conceptual Problems with UDT and Policy Selection, Formalising decision theory is hard
Target
Anyone who is interested in decision theory. The post is pretty general and not really technical; some familiarity with counterfactual mugging can be useful, but overall the required... |
0ef62324-5f86-4b13-bb15-d0f04796f4e0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Intradependent encoding
We call an [https://arbital.com/p/encoding](https://arbital.com/p/encoding) $E(m)$ of a message $m$ "intradependent" if the fact that $E(m)$ encodes $m$ can be deduced without looking at the whole encoding. For example, imagine that you know you're going to see an 8-letter English word, and you... |
eae9d154-c2af-4dca-8783-b0307fab5c80 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Rant on Problem Factorization for Alignment
This post is the second in what is likely to become a series of uncharitable rants about alignment proposals (previously: [Godzilla Strategies](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DwqgLXn5qYC7GqExF/godzilla-strategies)). In general, these posts are intended to convey my underlyi... |
eabab0ec-71fe-4da5-af8c-87e197e88c0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Subscripting Typographic Convention For Citations/Dates/Sources/Evidentials: A Proposal
> Reviving an old General Semantics proposal: borrowing from scientific notation and using subscripts like 'Gwern2020' for denoting sources (like citation, timing, or medium) might be a useful trick for clearer writing, compared to... |
6b5a78fe-2130-4d96-952d-c9d07138c4e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflective Consequentialism
Epistemic Status: My position makes sense to me and seems pretty plausible. However, I haven't thought too hard about it, nor have I put it to the test by discussing with others. Putting it to the test is what I'm trying to do here. I also don't have the best understanding of what virtue et... |
96142dba-7bef-44c1-bbb9-8f0ac5107f67 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deadlines and AI theory
The AI is a real-time algorithm - it has to respond to situation in the real time. The real-time systems have to trade time for accuracy, and/or face deadlines.
The straightforward utility maximization may look viable for multiple choice questions, but for write-in problems, such as technologi... |
1fc2248e-42a5-415a-be99-6d5df24b0c3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Samotsvety's AI risk forecasts
Crossposted to EA Forum and Foxy Scout
Introduction
In my review of What We Owe The Future (WWOTF), I wrote:
> Finally, I’ve updated some based on my experience with Samotsvety forecasters when discussing AI risk… When we discussed the report on power-seeking AI, I expected tons of sk... |
7987ee34-a9f8-455c-adb8-d7d9926bccd9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | It Looks Like You're Trying To Take Over The World
*This story was originally posted as a response to* [*this thread*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/DuPEzGJ5oscqxD5oh/shah-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-failures?commentId=hjd7Z4AN6ToN2ebSm)*.*
*It might help to imagine a hard takeoff scenario using only know... |
8eb7af70-77ad-482c-8453-245e7a194c66 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Decoupling deliberation from competition
I view [intent alignment](https://ai-alignment.com/clarifying-ai-alignment-cec47cd69dd6) as one step towards a broader goal of decoupling deliberation from competition*.*
* **Deliberation**. Thinking about what we want, learning about the world, talking and learning from each ... |
408e724e-3ba4-4a85-aa7d-d59789b884e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cambridge LW: Post-mortem
A brief post-mortem of this weeks LW meet-up.
Topic Selection
This week we had comparatively few people, so what worked this time may not generalise. At the beginning of the meet-up Douglas suggested we use one of his meetup formats. Of the three, skill focus was not usable without prepa... |
5552144e-2c49-4395-99d5-4fddd63c6cab | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Playing hard exploration games by watching YouTube
1 Introduction
---------------
People learn many tasks, from knitting to dancing to playing games, by watching videos online. They demonstrate a remarkable ability to transfer knowledge from the online demonstrations to the task at hand, despite huge gaps in timing... |
3d13b39a-d919-4856-922c-5d1ac268f5e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Official LW uncensored thread (on Reddit)
http://www.reddit.com/r/LessWrong/comments/17y819/lw_uncensored_thread/
This is meant as an open discussion thread someplace where I won't censor anything (and in fact can't censor anything, since I don't have mod permissions on this subreddit), in a location where comments a... |
09fb85e1-77b0-4d22-8482-3239b52d0cc5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Coherence arguments imply a force for goal-directed behavior
**By Katja Grace, 25 March 2021**
*[Epistemic status: my current view, but I haven’t read all the stuff on this topic even in the LessWrong community, let alone more broadly.]*
There is a line of thought that says that advanced AI will tend to be ‘goal-d... |
ef6d8e4e-5455-4a7a-a5dc-e4c1533089ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ... Wait, our models of semantics should inform fluid mechanics?!?
This post is styled after conversations we’ve had in the course of our research, put together in a way that hopefully highlights a bunch of relatively recent and (ironically) hard-to-articulate ideas around natural abstractions.
John: So we’ve been w... |
173deda2-9719-4bb4-ae12-4234b59a06e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I universally trying to reject the Mind Projection Fallacy—consequences
Jan 2025 - translation updated
My essay is a continuation of the reasoning from Yudkowsky's article "Mind Projection Fallacy", and an attempt to expand it by providing more gears of how the fallacy works. When I understood the mechanism described... |
012b052f-09f7-48df-8d42-7030e90c3024 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What does the launch of x.ai mean for AI Safety?
x.ai has now launched. It seems worthwhile to discuss both what it means for AI safety and whether people interested in AI safety should consider applying for the company.
Some thoughts:
It's notable that Dan Hendrycks is listed as an advisor (the only advisor listed)... |
ecacc43d-1f59-49f8-93fb-2655f39a6d9d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] AI Go Foom
Today's post, AI Go Foom was originally published on November 19, 2008. A summary:
> Robin Hanson's attempt to summarize Eliezer Yudkowsky's position.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
This post is part of the Rerunning the Sequences series, where w... |
9454bef8-5eca-47bc-a1f0-8b62558ce72b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knowledge Base 9: Increasing intelligence
The post Knowledge Base 2: The structure and the method of building I proposed to build a database of credible knowledge, understandable both to people and computers, including AI. This database could be used as a source of information in computer applications, and to increase... |
5719ce2c-8f2d-4b05-a870-28ac97b8fff6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Superrationality and network flow control
Computers exchanging messages on a network must decide how fast or slow to transmit messages. If everyone transmits too slowly then the network is underutilized, which is bad for all. If everyone transmits too quickly then most messages on the network are actually flow control... |
b5fcf736-fdb9-402a-b328-b4054a6f28d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Minneapolis Meetup, This Saturday (26th) at 3:00 PM, University of Minnesota
The Minneapolis meetup will take place this Saturday the 26th at 3:00 PM in Coffman Memorial Union at the University of Minnesota. Directions and address can be found here, and we'll be meeting inside near Starbucks, next to the northwest en... |
dad7c17d-a405-4eeb-9054-8896974b2bf0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Alex Turner - Will powerful AIs tend to seek power?
[Music]
hey everyone welcome back to the towards
data science podcast now today's episode
is somewhat special because we're going
to be talking about what might be the
first solid quantitative study of the
power seeking tendencies that we can
expect advanced ai syste... |
191ffb6d-29dd-4ba9-8236-0a77e89be484 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Emergency Residential Solar Jury-Rigging
With generous incentives, many houses around here now have rooftop solar. In an emergency, however, these panels would not be able to provide electricity: we've regrettably chosen to set things up where almost all residential solar only provides power when the grid is up.
But ... |
b758552f-0479-49dd-8cdf-7616d535826c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Engineering archaeology
Here's an account by a retired engineer of what happened when his old company wanted to streamline a process in the factory where he used to work.
People only knew how to keep the factory going from one day to the next, but all the documentation was lost-- the factory had been sold a couple o... |
e2477102-15e1-42ac-8cd0-b247d58a455f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Glide #1.5: New Criticism and Rationality
Glide Meditation #1.5: A Reflection on Reflecting on the Original Sequences
When I started to write (what I anticipated to be) my second Glide Meditation, I almost immediately hit a wall. Now that I had something concrete to work with, I couldn't simply smile, cheerily quip "... |
848f8140-8c37-45b7-98df-8eef4160be07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Learning-Theoretic Agenda: Status 2023
TLDR: I give an overview of (i) the key problems that the learning-theoretic AI alignment research agenda is trying to solve, (ii) the insights we have so far about these problems and (iii) the research directions I know for attacking these problems. I also describe "Physical... |
25424114-bd30-48cc-860e-cb1509d8642a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Relativity Theory for What the Future 'You' Is and Isn't
"Me" encompasses three constituents: this mind here and now, its memory, and its cared-for future. There follows no ‘ought’ with regards to caring about future clones or uploadees, and your lingering questions about them dissipate.
In When is a mind me?, Rob Be... |
a3403ec5-6cb8-423e-b3b5-5374e35f59bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mini advent calendar of Xrisks: nanotechnology
The FHI's mini advent calendar: counting down through the big five existential risks. The third one is a also a novel risk: nanotechnology.
Nanotechnology
Current understanding: low
Most worrying aspect: the good stuff and the bad stuff are the same thing
The potent... |
c3eb0b53-e5c4-4a82-a8a0-b55994ff3e48 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Berkeley meetup: Board game night
Discussion article for the meetup : Berkeley meetup: Board game night
WHEN: 01 August 2012 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: Berkeley, CA
Hello, all! Tomorrow's meetup will be a board game night at Zendo. Zendo's game library has Robo Rally, Smallworld, Dominion, Ticket to Ride, S... |
9b250ec5-4bbc-4869-9b39-c98391bf134d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Neil deGrasse Tyson on Cryonics
Question:
> What are your thoughts on cryogenic preservation and the idea of medically treating aging?
His response:
> A marvelous way to just convince people to give you money. Offer to freeze them for later. I'd have more confidence if we had previously managed to pull this off wit... |
5ae66071-e3b7-48b9-ad4f-98f4547ccff1 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "When I lecture on the Singularity, I often draw a graph of the "scale of intelligence" as it appears in everyday life: But this is a rather parochial view of intelligence. Sure, in everyday life, we only deal socially with other humans—only other humans are partners in the great game—and so we only meet the minds of i... |
15c2c88c-3735-4b38-ba23-0c42786f7582 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Victoria Krakovna on AGI Ruin, The Sharp Left Turn and Paradigms of AI Alignment
Victoria Krakovna is a Research Scientist at DeepMind working on AGI safety and a co-founder of the Future of Life Institute, a non-profit organization working to mitigate technological risks to humanity and increase the chances of a posi... |
e1ce7d34-ac20-4783-b566-bc893f9ec390 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (Not) Derailing the LessOnline Puzzle Hunt
(spoiler alert: may meta-spoil future iterations of the LOPH, if you haven’t already read other posts about it)
I knew early on that I wouldn’t be able to finish the LessOnline puzzle hunt.
I contributed to solving two of the first six puzzles, each of which revealed the co... |
6f985365-d3f2-436e-b5b7-6d1e519edb1d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Victoria Krakovna on AGI Ruin, The Sharp Left Turn and Paradigms of AI Alignment
Victoria Krakovna is a Research Scientist at DeepMind working on [AGI safety](https://deepmindsafetyresearch.medium.com/) and a co-founder of the [Future of Life Institute](https://futureoflife.org/), a non-profit organization working to ... |
3c1190ab-c91c-4c1c-bce4-c0aec71a6962 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Metaculus Predicts Weak AGI in 2 Years and AGI in 10
Just a quick update on predicted timelines. Obviously, there’s no guarantee that Metaculus is 100% reliable + you should look at other sources as well, but I find this concerning.
Weak AGI is now predicted in a little over two years:
<https://www.metaculus.com/q... |
298923f8-456f-40a8-996d-3ebf0ba45c6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Clarifying Power-Seeking and Instrumental Convergence
Previously: Seeking Power is Provably Instrumentally Convergent in MDPs
Rohin Shah and Vanessa Kosoy pointed out a subtle problem with my interpretation of the power-seeking theorem from the last post. To understand the distinction, we first need to shore up some ... |
4b6a7508-3ea8-4c36-a73e-ca60dea2310c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The poetry of progress
I’ve said that Western culture, before the World Wars, had a positive philosophy of progress. How do we know that people in that era saw glory, romance, even poetry in progress?
One way we know is that they literally wrote poetry about it. Take, for example, Erasmus Darwin (grandfather of Charl... |
84697dd9-6fbc-4d37-a5c3-a05ad17e6828 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Announcing The Most Important Century Writing Prize
**tl;dr: Win**[**$500 prizes**](https://www.super-linear.org/prize?recordId=recmsHjuOh5JmVJWJ)**for writing posts that expand on Holden Karnofsky's**[**Most Important Century series.**](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/)
Introducing the prize
-----... |
d60bade2-4ad4-4eee-9f12-987cd06117ef | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | ARC tests to see if GPT-4 can escape human control; GPT-4 failed to do so
An unorthodox approach to alignment research to be sure. The advice to "fail early" might actually a good thing when it comes to AI x-risk though.
After this post was written, ARC themselves wrote a much more detailed (and perhaps more accurate... |
4952d98b-2ff2-45a1-8035-b179d1b53349 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Cambridge, MA third-Sundays meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Cambridge, MA third-Sundays meetup
WHEN: 18 November 2012 02:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 25 Ames St Cambridge, MA
Cambridge/Boston-area Less Wrong meetups on the first and third Sunday of every month, 2pm at the MIT Landau Building [25 Ames ... |
65a9eb3b-8a58-44eb-b8e8-d36b262fe213 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Safer sandboxing via collective separation
*Epistemic status: speculative brainstorming. Follow-up to [this post on AGIs as collectives](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/HekjhtWesBWTQW5eF/agis-as-populations). Note that I've changed the term* population AGI *to* collective AGI *for consistency with Bostrom's use i... |
7b132ac8-008f-4f78-932a-646ada35d881 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A distillation of Evan Hubinger's training stories (for SERI MATS)
*This post is a* [*distillation*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zo9zKcz47JxDErFzQ/call-for-distillers) *of Evan Hubinger's post "*[*how do we become confident in the safety of a machine learning system?*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/FDJnZt8K... |
753d824e-3a1e-455c-91ac-c86147bfc71d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Free group
Intuitively, the free [https://arbital.com/p/-3gd](https://arbital.com/p/-3gd) $F(X)$ on the [set](https://arbital.com/p/3jz) $X$ is the group whose elements are the [freely reduced words](https://arbital.com/p/5jc) over $X$, and whose group operation is "[https://arbital.com/p/-concatenation](https://arbit... |
934edbf4-51c5-4cb4-9289-05515ea02717 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | How much should we worry about mesa-optimization challenges?
*This post was written quickly, lest I do not write it at all.*
Picture the following scenario.
1. Humans train a model, M, with the intention for M to minimize a loss function L.
2. The model, M, will now take a set of actions.
I see this going wrong in... |
bd394baf-8bf0-4e4a-933c-bba6ab8d1450 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Neuroscience and Alignment
I've been in many conversations where I've mentioned the idea of using neuroscience for outer alignment, and the people who I'm talking to usually seem pretty confused about why I would want to do that. Well, I'm confused about why one wouldn't want to do that, and in this post I explain why... |
0ef5dd3c-083c-458c-986b-791669287a73 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Bielefeld Meetup, February 20th
Discussion article for the meetup : Bielefeld Meetup, February 20th
WHEN: 20 February 2013 07:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Grill/Bar Verve, Klosterplatz 13, Bielefeld
We are meeting once again in Bielefeld.
The topics of this evening are not yet determined, but will be in the ne... |
b590b4d2-eac5-460b-b211-4146abbe0b8d | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "This is an exercise, and as such is a bit different from your ordinary question post...What? Come up with 50 ways of sending something to the moon. In less than 1 hour. I don’t care how stupid they are. My own list included “Slingshot”, “Massive trampoline” and “Bird with spacesuit”.What matters is that you actually h... |
13d9ae0c-913e-48c1-a558-9b7582be743d | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "There’s a programming technique where you keep a rubber duck on your desk, and when you run into a confusing bug, you try to explain it to the duck. This turns out to be surprisingly useful for resolving bugs.In research conversations, it is often very useful to have someone serve as an upgraded rubber duck. This is a... |
e15d4d93-e4aa-40e4-8bb6-de953bf73255 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do we build organisations that want to build safe AI?
Originally posted here.
Much has been written about the dangers of artificial intelligence, and how the intelligent systems we build may sometimes unintentionally drift in alignment from their original goals. However, we seem to focus almost entirely upon an A... |
99c93c5e-579d-483a-ab9a-486ec6c2db87 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Alignment Trap: AI Safety as Path to Power
Recent discussions about artificial intelligence safety have focused heavily on ensuring AI systems remain under human control. While this goal seems laudable on its surface, we should carefully examine whether some proposed safety measures could paradoxically enable rath... |
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