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24f13e36-0cac-436a-bbee-66e9befbc38a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Understanding Infra-Bayesianism: A Beginner-Friendly Video Series
[Click here to see the video series](https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLntAW0eILBdWcOWK_GmQiRGxrLjrUIKJy)
This video series was produced as part of a project through the 2022 SERI Summer Research Fellowship (SRF) under the mentorship of Diffractor.
*... |
96d676fc-103e-4db1-834a-6c9f57476c3b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does davidad's uploading moonshot work?
davidad has a 10-min talk out on a proposal about which he says: “the first time I’ve seen a concrete plan that might work to get human uploads before 2040, maybe even faster, given unlimited funding”.
I think the talk is a good watch, but the dialogue below is pretty readable ... |
28705e29-23ba-4df7-855d-ae4adf0ec48d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Genius for Destruction
This is a question from a workshop after the Global Catastrophic Risks conference. The rule of the workshop was that people could be quoted, but not attributed, so I won't say who observed:
"The problem is that it's often our smartest people leading us into the disasters. Look at Long-Term ... |
61964a98-a56a-42fc-b365-3815f19ecbe2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LessOnline Could Use Meeting Stones
Back in the mists of time, there was this game called World of Warcraft, where you and your four closest friends would team up to complete dungeons together. To handle the inevitable people with no friends, they added meeting stones near each dungeon. When you clicked a meeting ston... |
3ccd9cdf-907e-42c0-9c84-b6f48d3be5fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Philanthropy Promotion: Bolder Giving
If you're trying to do as much good as possible, earning money to give away is a strong contender. Convincing other people to follow your example multiplies your impact. Julia and I have a profile on the philanthropy promotion website Bolder Giving. Much of the site consists of... |
cd5be89d-62cd-4900-89c9-f486c2b2f801 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Cognitive Biases in Large Language Models
> Humans, one might say, are the cyanobacteria of AI: we constantly emit large amounts of structured data, which implicitly rely on logic, causality, object permanence, history—all of that good stuff. All of that is implicit and encoded into our writings and videos and ‘data e... |
5c770f25-877f-42c0-847a-d0076432ab37 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Zagreb Rationality Meetup
Casual meetup of local rationalists, or in other words, people who like reading LW/SSC, or are interested in EA/MIRIx. |
2ed5219b-61e2-44d2-afdd-3d24f609b61a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Option Paralysis - The Thing You Actually Do
Introduction
I recently encountered a problem in my life I found interesting. I noticed that I was fairly unfit, that my energy levels were lower than I wanted them to be, and so I was considering starting to exercise more as a solution to this. And I knew that exercise ... |
0e5507fb-5c13-4fd4-b331-ff798d70cf17 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wiki Clean-up project
I'm a fairly new LW user, as evidenced by my so-far low karma. However, I've previously been familiar with a lot of the ideas talked about here and I've been reading the site for a few weeks. I think that the material here is amazing and often unparalleled on the rest of the web.
However, there... |
2da041aa-d77d-4a27-9aab-c99645cde8c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The Third Alternative
Today's post, The Third Alternative was originally published on May 6, 2007. A summary (from the LW wiki):
> People justify Noble Lies by pointing out their benefits over doing nothing. But, if you really need these benefits, you can construct a Third Alternative for getting them. Ho... |
e87d725a-3f6b-4e83-9f6a-c0ec144dba0c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Can AIXI be trained to do anything a human can?
There is some discussion as to whether an [AIXI](http://www.hutter1.net/ai/aixigentle.htm)-like entity would be able to [defend](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Anvil_problem) itself (or refrain from destroying itself). The problem is that such an entity would be unable t... |
fe8ab444-9af5-4bbd-9fb3-4611d37c029f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] TIME article: DeepMind’s CEO Helped Take AI Mainstream. Now He’s Urging Caution
TIME recently published an article about DeepMind, including some quotes from CEO Demis Hassabis. Posting some relevant quotes below (bolding added by me).
You might also be interested in a recent interview with Sam Altman.
H... |
e4fff3f1-65a7-46b4-8d5d-6b60868e2193 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Related to: Logical Rudeness, Semantic Stopsigns
While working on my book, I found in passing that I'd developed a list of what I started out calling "stonewalls", but have since decided to refer to as "conversation halters". These tactics of argument are distinguished by their being attempts to cut off the flow of de... |
475c69b7-bbb1-4f5f-b149-191ea1ae03c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the Best Hammers in the Rationalist Community?
I've toyed with the idea of giving an intro to rationality, hoping I can find the 20% of the material that provides 80% of the gains (or the 5% that provides 50% of the gains).
Here and there, I've also been asked what the rationality community is about, and I'v... |
015db33b-f849-457e-ac7e-cad18c159be3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Agency: What it is and why it matters
*[ETA: I'm deprioritizing completing this sequence because it seems that other people are writing good similar stuff. In particular, see e.g. <https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kpPnReyBC54KESiSn/optimality-is-the-tiger-and-agents-are-its-teeth> and <https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p... |
47547f92-4831-4e84-a21d-648b0149beb5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Salary or startup? How do-gooders can gain more from risky careers
See http://80000hours.org/blog/12-salary-or-startup-how-do-gooders-can-gain-more-from-risky-careers.
The expected value of risky careers like startups if often much higher than less risky careers. However, this is more than offset by peoples' risk-... |
6bc3387f-bf73-49d2-ac55-66403608658d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What do people think about the polymarket Eth Etf resolution?
Did they make the correct decision?
How did they handle it outside of the actual side they chose?
What are the implications for polymarket and prediction markets writ large?
What does this say about UMA?
Links:
https://polymarket.com/event/ethereum-... |
515370d0-b907-4796-aa1a-5293037a5703 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Msg Len
I'll be brief, omit needless words.
Intelligence is prediction is compression because
Compression is finding a code that makes the data shorter
And codeword lengths are probabilities
So codes are probability distributions
But probability distributions are prediction strategies. |
b6aebf22-cc17-4b6c-90ae-3b63a8502c9a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Apology for delay and [link] rationality comic
Link.
To provide some background: Kimiko, the main character, is moving to Nephilopolis, where all empiricism is strictly regulated by the Department of Inquisition: "You couldn't so much as make an observation based judgment without a license." Since her bag is lost, s... |
2d0cd9dd-305b-448f-8911-ea0d240cb89e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are computationally complex algorithms expensive to have, expensive to operate, or both?
Specifically, let's say you are handed a Boolean 3-sat problem, and you finally managed to finish solving the 3-SAT instance you are given by a superpolynomially large algorithm.
Now, you are given another Boolean 3-SAT problem. ... |
71fd29c2-5348-450a-bd69-54e2ede28b56 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mental Habits are Procedural
<Cross-posted from my blog>
Lately, I’ve realized that there’s something I’ve been fundamentally doing wrong in my head when it comes to building good mental architecture: Whenever I decide to integrate a new habit of mind, I get easily frustrated when it doesn’t stick after a few day... |
fa24f567-3130-409f-ab31-7776bac4aaf1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We Should Break Up Elite Colleges
Elite colleges hoard seats, fix prices, and capture government aid. Even worse, they increasingly produce shoddy research that can't be replicated, and the research that can be replicated often isn't particularly groundbreaking.
Breaking up elite colleges to fix anti-competitive con... |
da37e992-7228-405f-932f-522ebe5224bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Brass Puppet
fanfic/riff of Glass Puppet by lsusr
Alia got out of the Uber at Overton Cybernetics, taking in the corporate atmosphere. There was a huge jungle gym in the lobby, which she immediately decided must be typical of these LA tech places. She told the front desk that she had an interview. "Oh! Dominic Hamilt... |
e6aba1a3-e375-4e9f-aa2a-6138a65992e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking better name for "Effective Egoism"
Aka, coming up with a better term for applying LW-style rationality techniques to 'rational self-interest'.
Aka, in parallel with the current movement of 'Effective Altruism', which seeks the best available ways to fulfill one's values, when those values focus roughly on imp... |
a1f0b927-e83b-48f3-9dcc-0021b755e8c6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A list of all the deadlines in Biden's Executive Order on AI
This is a list of all the deadlines outlined in the Executive Order (EO) published by Biden’s administration on 30.10.2023. I’ve put it together to make it easier for people to track what exactly should be happening when as a result of the EO. The required a... |
9874919c-53e8-4e87-b2c0-0699b613ac50 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Boomerang - protocol to dissolve some commitment races
*Work done during SERI MATS 3.0 with mentorship from Jesse Cliffton. Huge thanks for all the feedback and discussions to Anthony DiGiovanni, Daniel Kokotajlo, Martín Soto, Rubi J. Hudson and Jan Betley!* [*Also posted to EA forum.*](https://forum.effectivealtruism... |
b56c387d-ada7-4889-841c-5fa10f9c6b6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Strategy of Inner Conflict
Epistemic status: Non-validated conjecture served with a pinch of salt
Category: In-depth analysis of everyday things
Dall-e: “A person with an exploding head, depicted as a nuclear mushroom cloud, digital art“
Do you want to understand why it makes sense to threaten civilian lives with hor... |
9cd438a8-bb07-42b3-bb27-09d2899b5b25 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [UPDATED] COVID-19 cabin secondary attack rates on Diamond Princess
Update 19/03/20: Inspired by johnswentworth's comment, I implemented a multinomial distribution on the 4-berth cabin result. Taking this additional information into account the model shows reduced likelihood of secondary attack rates of >0.9.
Introd... |
753426fa-076b-4996-9dfd-fee6bf86a7c4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Adversarial Examples Are a Natural Consequence of Test Error in Noise
1 Introduction
---------------
State-of-the-art computer vision models can achieve impressive performance on many image classification tasks. Despite this, these same models still lack the robustness of the human visual system to various forms of... |
b3e0d5f6-8993-4bb4-b53e-e605e5d8d21b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayes for Schizophrenics: Reasoning in Delusional Disorders
Related to: The Apologist and the Revolutionary, Dreams with Damaged Priors
Several years ago, I posted about V.S. Ramachandran's 1996 theory explaining anosognosia through an "apologist" and a "revolutionary".
Anosognosia, a condition in which extremely si... |
490dd0ce-5d4e-440a-b00c-e7c958bbd243 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 90% of anything should be bad (& the precision-recall tradeoff)
Introduction
Sturgeon’s Law states that 90% of anything is crap.
So 90% of sci-fi books are crap,
and 90% of medical research,
and 90% of jazz solos,
and 90% of LessWrong posts.
Etc, etc — 90% of anything is crap.
Now, people usually interp... |
3c1237cc-332d-4427-9277-a81ba9b53ed6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Paul Christiano: Current work in AI alignment
---
*Paul Christiano, a researcher at* [*OpenAI*](https://openai.com/)*, discusses the current state of research on aligning AI with human values: what’s happening now, what needs to happen, and how people can help. This talk covers a broad set of subgoals within alignmen... |
b06d79ac-94aa-4d48-98e9-4d5f942fd2f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Shanghai Less Wrong Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Shanghai Less Wrong Meetup
WHEN: 12 September 2011 07:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Starbucks, Carrefour Mall, the Zhongshan Park Store, near the Zhongshan Park Station, Line 2, 3, or 4, Shanghai, China
Where: Starbucks, Carrefour Mall, the Zhongshan ... |
c0bd14ee-40a0-49f9-93e4-0957ae3b6505 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Did anybody calculate the Briers score for per-state election forecasts?
There's a lot of debate about how good the polls and 538 have been is this election in comparison to the betting markets. While it's hard to compare it when just looking at percentage for Biden winning, it would be possible to calculate the Brier... |
4d3c3891-8226-4e68-ac15-6246d991dc51 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What I Was Thinking About Before Alignment
People frequently ask me about my backstory - how I got into alignment/agency research, what I did before, that sort of thing. One of the main things I emphasize is that I was thinking about analogous problems in economics and especially in biology, and I think the view from ... |
9a6608e4-a98a-4eaf-b348-e56ff7057604 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is instrumental convergence a thing for virtue-driven agents?
A key step in the classic argument for AI doom is instrumental convergence: the idea that agents with many different goals will end up pursuing the same few subgoals, which includes things like "gain as much power as possible".
If it wasn't for instrumenta... |
e6b7aeb0-47e9-48e0-86b7-f54ef09727a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Atlanta June meetup - Hacking Motivation
Discussion article for the meetup : Atlanta June meetup - Hacking Motivation
WHEN: 08 June 2014 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 2388 Lawrenceville Hwy. Unit L. Decatur, GA 30033
Oge says: I recently read “The Motivation Hacker” by Nick Winter, a book which summarizes the ... |
20441bf2-5883-48e5-871f-6da19fdf38fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In-group loyalty is social cement
There is a widespread idea, or cliché or meme, that in-group loyalty is the psychological equivalent of the appendix: an organ that was once useful, when we were in tiny hunter-gatherer bands, but now can only do harm. It turns up in Chris Paley’s new book, Beyond Bad, which controver... |
0256c678-84cb-417c-bd24-36de502b7345 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Reading Group: Part D: Mysterious Answers
This is part of a semi-monthly reading group on Eliezer Yudkowsky's ebook, Rationality: From AI to Zombies. For more information about the group, see the announcement post.
----------------------------------------
Welcome to the Rationality reading group. This we... |
84fa11cb-33c6-4693-8295-9cc1d7ead21f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GTP4 capable of limited recursive improving?
Apparently with reflection technique (answer-critique-improve) GTP4 capable of giving much better answers. But that implies it should be capable of doing essentially Alpha Go Zero type of learning! It can't do complete self play from zero as there is no ground truth for it ... |
974fa709-2904-49a5-9ff0-f9e141ca053c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | How to think about slowing AI
Slowing AI[[1]](#fni3yj1k5ozf) is many-dimensional. This post presents variables for determining whether a particular kind of slowing improves safety. Then it applies those variables to evaluate some often-discussed scenarios.
Variables
---------
Many variables affect whether an interve... |
1db2ece4-c0c2-40f4-b981-4d7e558b8747 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Non-existent markets in everything: anecdotes
Careful scientific study is widely considered a better basis for one’s views than anecdote. But anecdotes are more fun, so everyone reads about them anyway. Another virtue of anecdote is its low price. To verify scientifically that vitamin E is good for you might take mill... |
72855d02-ce47-4b88-840d-060a943c43a3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [Link] Sarah Constantin: "Why I am Not An AI Doomer"
This is a good post from Sarah Constantin explaining why her expected timeline to agentic AGI is long (> 10 years). Topics discussed include whether LLMs and other current major research directions will endow AIs with adequate world models, causal inference, and goa... |
7d16049c-d6fc-4672-b2c9-dd9788968fb4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Mini Talks
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Mini Talks
WHEN: 21 September 2014 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery
We will be meeting in the Kogod Courtyard of the National Portrait Gallery (8th and F Sts or 8th and G Sts NW, go straight past the infor... |
accb2e90-7b95-4535-b4fc-4592500d6385 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are Humans Fundamentally Good?
I've been doing some reading on political philosophy recently, with a focus on the works that influenced the founding fathers of the United States, and one of the ideas that comes up a lot is the idea of the social contract. One of the assumptions that drives this theory is that humans a... |
2efe5e83-2009-4bcd-91a4-1583fced0a6f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Another plausible scenario of AI risk: AI builds military infrastructure while collaborating with humans, defects later.
As was said [before](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LtdbPZxLuYktYhveL/a-plausible-story-about-ai-risk): "A lot of the AI risk arguments seem to come... with a very particular transhumanist aestheti... |
49856ab4-2ee4-4897-be4e-bf378cc81a6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hoarding Gmail-accounts in a post-CAPTCHA world?
You may have noticed that CAPTCHAs have become harder and harder. With the imminent advent of powerful multimodal AI, CAPTCHAS might soon be no longer be able to tell human from AI. The era of easy signup and free accounts might be at an end. It might consequently be mu... |
18934805-d5fe-4fc1-96fe-9a04c835ee3c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Podcast: Eye4AI on 2023 Survey
I talked to Tim Elsom of Eye4AI about the 2023 Expert Survey on Progress in AI (paper): |
d18ebfc0-f6f2-41ff-b47f-aabd0bcf6b7e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI, Cybersecurity, and Malware: A Shallow Report [Technical]
This post summarises recent progress in AI-enabled malware detection for those familiar with applied AI.
**Why read a post about AI-enabled malware detection?** It's an impactful problem for any cybersecurity application. Also, it has large impacts in prote... |
485b14f7-a002-4b59-8630-3bafb7f35a35 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Black-box interpretability methodology blueprint: Probing runaway optimisation in LLMs
Working document – feedback extremely welcome. Ideas in the main body are those I currently see as highest-leverage; numerous items under Appendix are more tentative and would benefit from critique as well as additions.
I am hoping... |
9502873d-9552-4846-9595-0f6b7f7e7576 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Book Review: Age of Em
*[Note: I really liked this book and if I criticize it that’s not meant as an attack but just as what I do with interesting ideas. Note that Robin has offered to debate me about some of this and I’ve said no – mostly because I hate real-time debates and have bad computer hardware – but you may s... |
a7d8b0ca-c057-4735-ac53-3a9d72fc046f | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "As Tom slips on the ice puddle, his arm automatically pulls back to slap the ground. He’s been taking Jiu-Jitsu for only a month, but, already, he’s practiced falling hundreds of times. Tom’s training keeps him from getting hurt.
By contrast, Sandra is in her second year of university mathematics. She got an “A” in ca... |
8d63fdc4-b4b7-499d-9265-3c378200165b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | (Duplicate?) 187. Stuart Armstrong and Scott Garrabrant on If I were a Well-intentioned AI
so this is more a meta approach than a
specific approach it's a way of getting
insights rather than a technical
nuts-and-bolts method the inspiration
came to me when I was thinking of the
manifold hypothesis for neural nets that... |
ccb57d38-fa83-4d2f-b506-2a8087178572 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In favour of exploring nagging doubts about x-risk
I was chatting recently to someone who had difficulty knowing how to orient to x-risk work (despite being a respected professional working in that field). They expressed that they didn't find it motivating at a gut level in the same way they did with poverty or animal... |
d6413489-ddc5-46fd-924d-0be66d838f3c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wouldn't weak AI agents provide warning?
If you are an advanced AI at ~70-120% of human level with some goal that is best optimized by destroying humanity you are unlikely to be able to optimize your goal because at your level of capability you are unlikely to be able to destroy all humans. However it still seems in ... |
4b901020-037f-4d71-9cce-d4e39df8e195 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Protein Reinforcement and DNA Consequentialism
Today's post, Protein Reinforcement and DNA Consequentialism was originally published on 13 November 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Brains made of proteins can learn much faster than DNA, but DNA does seem to be more adaptable. The complexity ... |
41933fd9-c54c-45e6-b198-a63faa4680da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 22: The Scientific Method
Something, somewhere, somewhen, must have happened differently...
PETUNIA EVANS married Michael Verres, a Professor of Biochemistry at Oxford.
HARRY JAMES POTTER-EVANS-VERRES grew up in a house filled to the brim with books. He once bit a math teacher who didn't know what a logarith... |
f96d8b51-fae5-46da-b854-08e9f7438729 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Communal Composition
I've considered in the past setting up an app of some kind to allow communal composition of music. It just now occurred to me to try a weaker version of the same idea here.
This is an unfinished, unpolished poem that I nonetheless feel has some good parts.
I submit it for criticism, or better... |
63a514eb-29f5-4f49-ab3d-1a68dae59a11 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Love and AI: Relational Brain/Mind Dynamics in AI Development
Love, the desire to connect to other humans in relationship, seems so universally intrinsic to our lives that it might not be wrong to imagine that these human brain connections are essential, ie. “the very essence” of how our brains work.
A brain without ... |
0183ae18-c98d-433c-b18f-c3c41904ba2e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | The Value of Abstraction.
The Value of Abstraction
Mark K. Ho
Princeton UniversityDavid Abel
Brown University
Thomas L. Gri ths
Princeton UniversityMichael L. Littman
Brown University
Agents that can make better use of computation, experience, time, and memory can solve
a greater range of problems more e ectively. A... |
ddabb504-1428-4d85-82eb-9f87d864c94a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How exactly do you convince people that "experts" aren't the best people to consult?
Frankly, it's a question that I've been dealing with for a long time, and that has caused very tense relationships between myself and the educational+medical establishments.
And it has damaged/destroyed several of my friendships too... |
22a03d8c-dd3c-404f-a957-a7aadb3cc99a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Most Rationalists Are Elsewhere
Most healthy intellectual blogs/forums participate in conversations among larger communities of blogs and forums. Rather than just "preaching to a choir" of readers, such blogs often quote and respond to posts on other blogs. Such responses sometimes support, and sometimes criticize, ... |
4b59eb26-4d99-4f84-a75b-0e1649c36def | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An introduction to decision theory
This is part 1 of a sequence to be titled “Introduction to decision theory”.
Less Wrong collects together fascinating insights into a wide range of fields. If you understood everything in all of the blog posts, then I suspect you'd be in quite a small minority. However, a lot of ... |
e2d56088-5d79-476e-8765-2b43c89e32cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nate Soares' "Assuming Good Intent"
|
038e6548-e33a-48d0-8c63-34af1d2100ba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | General vs specific arguments for the longtermist importance of shaping AI development
Suppose you want to argue for the longtermist importance of shaping AI development.
My key point is: **you can choose to make an argument that is more specific, or more general**. Specific arguments include more details about what... |
5c32808d-cd1a-4083-91d8-e2111678ed0c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Interview with 92iem
\*\*Interview with 92iem, on 3/21/22\*\*
\*\*0:00:05.2 Vael:\*\* Alright, here we are. So my first question is, can you tell me about what area of AI you work on in a few sentences?
\*\*0:00:15.2 Interviewee:\*\* Currently, I work a lot with language models, but that wasn\'t always the case.
\[... |
ea3e4ca2-7354-4e3c-a7dc-4745819792a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2024 was the year of the big battery, and what that means for solar power
The sunlight hitting even a small portion of the United States has enough energy to power the whole country—that simple calculation was the subject of the last post. All this shows on its own is that running the country on solar power is physica... |
0703b0a2-a2cf-4418-9174-697531a62ae1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Biased Pandemic
Recently, Portland Lesswrong played a game that was a perfect trifecta of: difficult mental exercise; fun; and an opportunity to learn about biases and recognize them in yourself and others. We're still perfecting it, and we'd welcome feedback, especially from people who try it.
The Short Version
The... |
83729818-1546-4764-bfe9-1ce72f5078d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Reading Group: Part S: Quantum Physics and Many Worlds
This is part of a semi-monthly reading group on Eliezer Yudkowsky's ebook, Rationality: From AI to Zombies. For more information about the group, see the announcement post.
----------------------------------------
Welcome to the Rationality reading g... |
5c5fad94-1132-4a4d-a7f9-7becdce23c30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Podcasts with Robin Hanson 3
Robin Hanson and I just recorded two more podcasts, on:
* Saving The World
* The Big Question
We’ve recorded four podcasts before, on Signaling, Idealism, School, and Future.
|
e4a85239-0bc2-4bfa-9cdf-ba7c6ea81b20 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The beautiful magical enchanted golden Dall-e Mini is underrated
[Showcasing some of the pictures that my daughter and I created with the open source generative model Dalle-Mini. No deeper insights, just an appreciation how well it works in some cases.]
I have been aware of a small open source Dall-e version for some... |
48b053fb-27f7-4a09-a8c6-13a60d9ef5de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The Argument from Common Usage
Today's post, The Argument from Common Usage was originally published on 13 February 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> You argue over the meanings of a word, even after all sides understand perfectly well what the other sides are trying to say. The human ability... |
cab4486b-8392-4dd8-9066-9010fdbd20ae | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Discovering Latent Knowledge in Language Models Without Supervision
1 Introduction
---------------
The increasing deployment of language models in real-world applications opens up exciting possibilities, but it also raises the stakes of AI research and presents new risks (Bommasani et al., [2021](#bib.bib6); Weidin... |
410d9ff2-6d55-42f9-89be-4a3282dfbb97 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Paradox of Simulated Suffering
Abstract for Paper on Simulated Suffering:
This paper interrogates a fundamental epistemological problem: Can an artificial system's simulation of suffering be morally distinguishable from genuine suffering? By exploring the philosophical boundary between algorithmic emotion modelling... |
de8b683d-525d-4efb-af3c-7957fee0ffd3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Escaping the Jungles of Norwood: A Rationalist’s Guide to Male Pattern Baldness
The question, “Will I go bald?” has haunted many a rationalist (and more than a few mirrors), but rarely receives a genuinely Bayesian treatment. In this essay, I combine personal risk factors, family history, and population-level genetics... |
64ab5ed5-9d12-426c-9b74-982343ba2396 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | is intelligence program inversion?
is intelligence program inversion?
----------------------------------
this is a thought i've had a while back, that i think i have enough notes on to make into a post. there's a sense in which running a program forwards is a trivial, "dumb" thing, but running it *backwards* — as in... |
c21bc5c1-dade-4616-88fd-24654754b231 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Navigate Evaluating Politicized Research?
I want to look into the research literature on an issue that has unfortunately become extremely politicized and controversial. (It isn't gun ownership, but let's say for the sake of argument that it is.) If I do a search for, say, "effects of gun ownership on crime", it... |
a8bf18ec-8cee-4078-8c74-3b252fe18923 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrong London New Arrival Integration Task Force
After considering how many of us have arrived here within recent memory, the London Less Wrong community is explicitly offering itself as a resource for those moving to the city. We all know how awkward and daunting it can be to get settled somewhere new, and we'd l... |
f217d30c-a496-4e10-a0d2-b1abaa6ffb44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Julia Galef and Matt Yglesias on bioethics and "ethics expertise"
I recently collected excerpts from 33 random bioethics papers from 2014–2020, plus 10 papers from 2000, in the hope of getting a better picture of what the field is like, how healthy it is, and what its social effects may be.
One of the conversations t... |
333ac08d-8bc6-4568-a8b6-406e8d382eaf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Conjecture Second Hiring Round
Conjecture is hiring! We have open roles for all teams, both technical and non-technical. We have written a bit more about the teams at Conjecture [here](https://www.conjecture.dev/careers) and you can view all open positions [here](https://jobs.lever.co/Conjecture). Applications for the... |
44f46ccb-7f58-4eac-b109-bd84043f8b49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Truth About Mathematical Ability
There's widespread confusion about the nature of mathematical ability, for a variety of reasons:
* Most people don't know what math is.
* Most people don't know enough statistics to analyze the question properly.
* Most mathematicians are not very metacognitive.
* Very few peo... |
5c126651-d485-4263-acd5-a907073fdf24 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post1331
Preface Produced as part of the SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program - Winter 2022 Cohort. Thanks to Erik Jenner who explained to me the basic intuition for why an advanced RL agent may evade the discussed corrigibility measure. I also thank Alex Turner , Magdalena Wache , and Walter Laurito for deta... |
783bc773-e06b-4cbe-ae0b-044cc5d75eb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Bedroom Closets?
Bedrooms, at least in the US, are nearly always constructed with built-in closets, but I don't see why? What's the appeal?
Personally, I don't like them. I want the flexibility to arrange furniture however currently best suits my needs, and a built-in closet permanently reserves a portion of the ... |
cc48618a-ed5a-4efe-ac00-d66543284329 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Diffusing "I can't be that stupid"
Why does it hurt so much when I think that people I care about are very wrong about something I think is important? If I'm talking with someone I'm not super close with, I'm usually very capable of not getting emotional or riled up when we find important disagreements.
After some th... |
639982b4-b0ce-4f52-a3af-ad85f500fe64 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decision Theories, Part 3.5: Halt, Melt and Catch Fire
Followup to: Decision Theories: A Semi-Formal Analysis, Part III
UPDATE: As it turns out, rumors of Masquerade's demise seem to have been greatly exaggerated. See this post for details and proofs!
I had the chance, over the summer, to discuss the decision theory... |
05ee8b1d-fb6e-4c37-8bcc-367ed04f7f63 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Canberra: More rationalist fun and games!
Discussion article for the meetup : Canberra: More rationalist fun and games!
WHEN: 26 September 2014 06:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 108 North Road, Acton, ACT
We will be practising our practical rationality skills by playing (some variant of) Liar's Dice and Mafia. As ... |
99a4b742-8f09-4e2f-9387-508131a29daf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup Zürich last minute
Meetup tomorrow(Wednesday) at 19:30, lets go!
http://lesswrong.com/meetups/10j |
9375654c-f6ab-4f2b-9bd7-1b81ecfb29f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to get past Haidt's elephant and listen
First, some examples.
In my beginning programming classes, I tell students (and show them): write comments first, before coding. Some won't. I tell them: write the algorithm first. I prove this will save them time. There's a whole chapter on why and how to do this. Many wo... |
1e3ed101-cbff-4d1d-bbca-21f26cb3bac9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meta: On viewing the latest LW posts
To view all the latest posts on LW without the use of bookmarks or cookies, here are the steps I take:
1. Go to lesswrong.com
2. Switch from Enriched to Latest
3. Click on Advanced Sorting/Filtering
4. Click on Sorted by Magic (New & Upvoted)
5. Click on New in the column Sor... |
21bd8d19-3f5e-47a1-8af1-ba9aad38a25c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Likelihood calculation with duobels
The post An Intuitive Explanation of Bayes's Theorem explains that using Bayesian reasoning we can much better see how likely something is (by calculating conditional probabilities), and thus update our own beliefs as efficiently as possible.
However, the essay shows us how to calcu... |
4638173a-1e55-43e1-8c06-c26d137524dc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #126]: Avoiding wireheading by decoupling action feedback from action effects
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look throu... |
062d9561-e614-4acc-b824-03e8eb8bbd57 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Is the Orthogonality Thesis true for humans?
Basically, the Orthogonality Thesis is arguing that intelligence and goals do not correlate, at least in the limit of infinite compute and data. That is, minds and goals are very separate.
Now the question is, is the Orthogonality Thesis at least approximately true in hum... |
1f599a9b-7968-4473-bcc0-61bb87c41a5a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | How to Throw Away Information in Causal DAGs
When constructing a high-level abstract causal DAG from a low-level DAG, one operation which comes up quite often is throwing away information from a node. This post is about how to do that.
First, how do we throw away information from random variables in general? Sparknot... |
690eab64-22cb-480c-8dd0-24402b867030 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Annual AGI Benchmarking Event
[Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12339/annual-agi-benchmarking-event/) is strongly considering organizing an annual AGI benchmarking event. Once a year, we’d run a benchmark or suite of benchmarks against the most generally intelligent AI systems available to us at the time... |
72aac957-5905-425b-a5da-52e48f8b2615 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evolution of Modularity
None |
ec38bccd-657d-4e0b-aca9-d68021acdffa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Off-policy Monte Carlo agents with variable behaviour policies
O -policy Monte Carlo agents with variable
behaviour policies
Stuart Armstrong1;2
1The Future of Humanity Institute
Faculty of Philosophy
University of Oxford
Suite 1, Littlegate House
16/17 St Ebbes Street
Oxford, OX1 1PT UK
stuart.armstrong@philosophy.ox.... |
5ea404a1-27d5-45c0-867c-157aa4f8c88f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bindings and assurances
|
01cfc043-28db-448d-9c2b-b74a7c27c3ba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 254 Lets see you write that Corrigibility Tag
hello and welcome to session 254
in the ai safety.com reading group
tonight we will be discussing the less
wrong post let's see you write that
courage ability attack by elias
yorkowski
eliza yutkowski is
the founder of miri and
the the senior researcher and uh of
course t... |
1a616fd0-a470-48d3-97ff-192ff07dfb90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Omicron Post #4
Previous Omicron updates: #1, #2, #3. Last weekly non-Omicron update.
An introductory word: Thanks to Dominic Cummings, I have a lot of new readers, many from the United Kingdom, so I want to welcome all of you, and I hope at least some of you will stay when I turn to non-Covid questions. I am America... |
2a5dc687-b195-4fc8-b60e-aa3569892965 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Non-Fungible Costs
You and your partner live in a cozy one-bedroom in the city. You enjoy being in the city bustle. It's got a quiet, sunny, plant-filled patio; and is close to all your favourite bars and restaurants.
But you've just had a baby. Work is a 40 minute commute. You can afford the current rent, but it fee... |
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