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80a6649a-c1b2-48d2-8ec6-43d46e8ae81c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Project Idea: Lots of Cause-area-specific Online Unconferences
Here's a project idea I have that's been laying around for some time. I think this would be high impact, but I need help to make it happen. It don't have to be this exact setup (which I describe below) as long as the output are more online unconferences f... |
3d244e4d-3d2f-4f14-be88-54678b918ff1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's in a name? That which we call a rationalist…
Who are we? I've heard a couple of comments about what Less Wrong members should be called lately. "Rationalist" is the word most commonly used, although use of that term might presume we are something we are not. "Aspiring rationalist" avoids that problem, but is aw... |
bcc305f7-4c60-4f56-8e0d-caaac99409c9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Prizes for ELK proposals
**We are no longer accepting submissions. We'll get in touch with winners and make a post about winning proposals sometime in the next month.**
[ARC](https://alignmentresearchcenter.org/) recently released a technical report on [eliciting latent knowledge](https://docs.google.com/document/u/0... |
cc614da7-31fa-4c4a-b46f-41bc1d8609bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Leaders of Men
Related to (Eliezer Yudkowsky): Inadequacy and Modesty
Epistemic Status: Confident. No sports knowledge required.
In 2005, Willie Randolph became manager of the New York Mets.
In his first five games as manager, all of which he lost, Willie made more decisions wrong than I thought possible. If he nee... |
1527ba42-fbf7-4715-a247-2ed284fbc8e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Melbourne Less Wrong Meetup
There seems to be enough Melburnian Less Wrong visitors to justify having monthly meetups. Just the other day, I ran into some at my local restaurant, and the thread Where are we? lists four (not including me). There's probably more out there.
Details
Time: 6pm, Saturday 2nd October
Pl... |
62cf6da6-b5b0-4208-b269-678f87071a90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Acetylcholine = Learning rate (aka plasticity)
What is “learning rate”, and why should we expect a learning-rate-modulation mechanism in the brain?
What is “learning rate”? As many readers know, learning algorithms involve a large number of parameters (“weights” in ML, or synapse locations and strengths in brains) tha... |
d857a5bd-f679-4452-b025-6c31ba7fd8c7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Mechanism Design for AI Safety - Agenda Creation Retreat
Mechanism Design for AI Safety (MDAIS) has been running a reading group since last summer to discuss how principles of mechanism design can be applied to AI Safety. Sign-up for the reading group can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1p-R-WIuTaLabx2... |
6babacc3-5ca6-4ce5-9335-d97dcb0c96b3 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "TL;DR: It can be helpful to reframe arguments about tone, trigger warnings, and political correctness as concerns about false cognates/false friends. You may be saying something that sounds innocuous to you, but translates to something much stronger/more vicious to your audience. Cultivating a debating demeanor that i... |
e2e90b2c-be72-45df-89ae-6c5128c5a55d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Use curiosity
Related to: Rationalization, Meditation on curiosity, Original Seeing.
Why aren’t you learning faster?
For me, one answer is: because I’m not asking questions. I blunder through conversations trying to “do my job”, or to look good, or elaborating my own theories, or allowing cached replies to come ou... |
573f9b32-4a3b-4de6-a42c-1adc0892fad0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Learning to Continually Learn
1 Introduction
---------------
Intelligent animals are typically able to solve new problems without corrupting hard-won knowledge of how to solve previously encountered problems. On the other hand, artificial neural networks have long been known to suffer from catastrophic forgetting (... |
67f321eb-479b-42c9-b383-428917d5c679 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Regulatory Option: A response to near 0% survival odds
This is inspired by Eliezer’s [“Death with Dignity”](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j9Q8bRmwCgXRYAgcJ/miri-announces-new-death-with-dignity-strategy) post. Simply put, AI Alignment has failed. Given the lack of Alignment technology AND a short timeline to AGI... |
c6f8b2f1-349d-4908-8a33-fca03d00ab6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Literature Review: Distributed Teams
Introduction
Context: Oliver Habryka commissioned me to study and summarize the literature on distributed teams, with the goal of improving altruistic organizations. We wanted this to be rigorous as possible; unfortunately the rigor ceiling was low, for reasons discussed below. To ... |
60c61ed1-5773-4811-9f14-8102c2e931a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Less Wrong NH Meet-up
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong NH Meet-up
WHEN: 13 October 2015 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 269 Pearl St Manchester NH
The fifth NH meet-up is Tuesday, 10/13, in Manchester, NH at 7 pm at a private residence. Light refreshments will be provided.
Have you read Rationalit... |
c47512b4-f20a-4921-b5a6-702ca103b206 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Reasoning about Counterfactuals to Improve Human Inverse Reinforcement Learning
I Introduction
---------------
Our capacity to deploy, collaborate, and co-exist fluently with robots is contingent on our ability to understand their decision-making. For example, an engineer certifying the navigation policy of a groun... |
0acb0ccf-200f-4774-9401-573c9011acde | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Have you considered getting rid of death?
No person who wishes to continue living should have to die, ever. Check out the post on substack!
I believe that human immortality (increasing healthspan, eliminating causes of death, etc.) is something we as a species ought to urgently work towards. I am not a scientist, so ... |
bec16b22-3177-4dc8-abff-6ee5be2692dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | UML XIII: Online Learning and Clustering
,
(This is the thirteenth post in a sequence on Machine Learning based on this book. Click here for part I.)
In the previous post, I've mentioned the distinction between supervised and unsupervised learning. Here is a more comprehensive picture:
* Supervised learning: learni... |
1c80b30f-1bd0-4025-aca2-32308a360796 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Video to induce hallucinations , meme implanter?
|
81d2750b-52b6-403c-8e84-2e8c6dcebfc5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Value is Fragile
If I had to pick a single statement that relies on more Overcoming Bias content I've written than any other, that statement would be:
Any Future not shaped by a goal system with detailed reliable inheritance from human morals and metamorals, will contain almost nothing of worth.
"Well," says the one... |
b08342f7-b233-4440-8390-75a8a60a5b80 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Planets in the habitable zone, the Drake Equation, and the Great Filter
One serious issue for evaluating existential risk is working out whether most of the Great Filter is behind us or in front of us. This relates to the Drake Equation and similar attempts to estimate the frequency of life in an obvious way.
Over th... |
74dc146a-7674-4e82-87a8-cade7014da13 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Calibrating Against Undetectable Utilons and Goal Changing Events (part1)
Summary: Random events can preclude or steal attention from the goals you set up to begin with, hormonal fluctuation inclines people to change some of their goals with time. A discussion on how to act more usefully given those potential changes ... |
af46d5ca-1de4-45ea-b3d3-b50b2ee925b7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI improving AI [MLAISU W01!]
Over 200 research ideas for mechanistic interpretability, ML improving ML and the dangers of aligned artificial intelligence. Welcome to 2023 and a happy New Year from us at the ML & AI Safety Updates!
Watch this week's MLAISU on [YouTube](https://youtu.be/ZU2hfy6j_2g) or listen to it on... |
b1ccd360-a077-4c5f-ac46-e96f3428911b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Just How Good Are Modern Chess Computers?
When you play chess against a grandmaster, you know you're going to lose. But do you really understand how badly? You might think to yourself, “There's only like 20 possible moves per turn. Even a novice like me can quickly rule out half of those.”
In this post, I'd like t... |
0f4a07f1-2cde-455c-b8bb-facff3804875 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | University of Tübingen, Master's Machine Learning
The purpose of this post is to give an overview of the Machine Learning (ML) Master’s program at the University of Tübingen. It should function as guidance for people who are interested in studying ML and weigh the pros and cons.
This article is part of a series of ar... |
0d5e04af-185c-499a-8c3d-033aea5ce8ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In Defense of Ayn Rand
In Defense of Ayn Rand
WARNING: Do not read the footnotes if have not read Atlas Shrugged, they contain primarily quotes from the book. They don't reveal much in terms of plot (except for #6) so read them if you feel daring.
Preface: This is NOT a defense of objectivism nor is it a defense ... |
a44f3249-02e6-4d7a-9433-002f5f29e6ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | WordPress Destroys Editing Process, Seeking Alternatives
WordPress had an editor that worked. They have forcibly replaced it with an editor that doesn’t. There does not seem to be a free way to switch back.
Please, if anyone knows a good alternative hosting service, especially one that can seamlessly transfer over th... |
7770c52b-0164-44ee-8db4-95c0e035a88c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Have you ever considered taking the 'Turing Test' yourself?
For example, using a chat/text-based service such as Discord or Slack to field questions from Users, who would then attempt to discern whether they're interacting with a Human or an AI.
* What strategies would you employ?
* What kind of questions would you a... |
a4b7866a-f7d0-4a76-a6a6-069118557bf7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I applied for a MIRI job in 2020. Here's what happened next.
I recently saw Rob Bensinger asking what MIRI could do to improve hiring. I tried to get a job at MIRI in February 2020 and I have some feedback to give. I am sorry, because I am about to say some harsh things, but I think they might be important for you to ... |
3a6d07e3-656a-4a02-ac84-6c15976a0f51 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Useful Definition of "I"
aka The Fuzzy Pattern Theory of Identity
Background reading: Timeless Identity, The Anthropic Trilemma
Identity is not based on continuity of physical material.
Identity is not based on causal links to previous/future selves.
Identity is not usefully defined as a single point in things... |
f104eabd-cc2e-4b91-9738-4c40f139c46e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The 80/20 playbook for mitigating AI scheming in 2025
Adapted from this twitter thread. See this as a quick take.
Mitigation Strategies
How to mitigate Scheming?
1. Architectural choices: ex-ante mitigation
2. Control systems: post-hoc containment
3. White box techniques: post-hoc detection
4. Black box techniq... |
07e77159-587f-45c3-9517-024dd4131c6d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Probability is fake, frequency is real
Consider the [Sleeping Beauty problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem). What do we mean by fair coin? It is meant that the coin will have 50-50 probability of heads or tails. But that is fake. It will ether come up heads or tail, because the real world is d... |
c6b967fb-8dde-4bc4-94f6-ea40bbef23e7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do you want quadratic voting in the Final Voting Phase?
For the 2020 Review, people have continued using the 7-point preliminary voting option throughout the Review Phase. I've personally found it fairly satisfying to use. I'm considering whether to add back the "fine-tuned quadratic voting" option from previous years... |
485ad3e7-646a-46b5-86ff-445538f5e02e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Announcing TAIS 2024
[AI Safety Tokyo](https://aisafety.tokyo/) is hosting TAIS 2024, a Technical AI Safety Conference. The conference will take place in Tokyo, Japan on April 5th, 2024. Details about the event can be found [here](https://tais2024.cc/).
The goal of this conference is to bring together specialists in ... |
8f0eea4d-7bc9-42e7-a7a1-4b4d9e5f68ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | That one apocalyptic nuclear famine paper is bunk
I've seen a few commentors and bloggers cite this study from Nature Food to explain why they think nuclear war may lead to the collapse of civilization in event of a full nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. I read it and updated towards Nature Food being a publ... |
e37e7493-1dfc-4c5f-9633-a565145bc641 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | CFAR's 2019 Fundraiser
CFAR's 2019 fundraiser is live, and runs through January 15! You can donate here.
We recently did an AMA here on LessWrong, and released posts about our progress and plans, and our finances; expect more posts soon from Dan Keys about metrics, and from Anna Salamon about our mission.
Donations ... |
a6251f0b-1952-441a-8345-28396ba34016 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Forecasting: Two Years In
Two years ago, I commissioned forecasts for state-of-the-art performance on several popular ML benchmarks. Forecasters were asked to predict state-of-the-art performance on June 30th of 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. While there were four benchmarks total, the two most notable were MATH (a da... |
e5fb8ca7-6322-4322-91c3-6fde7705c5d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | No, human life was not a misery until the 1950s
There is an extant meme about early human history, that the invention of agriculture was a huge mistake. Noah Yuval Hariri popularized the idea in Sapiens. He pointed out that ancient foragers were “taller and healthier than their peasant descendants”. Foragers also suff... |
fc7fb707-cb5d-4899-aba0-47f22b9ac2e3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | The alternating group on five elements is simple: Simpler proof
If there is a non-trivial [https://arbital.com/p/-4h6](https://arbital.com/p/-4h6) $H$ of the [https://arbital.com/p/-4hf](https://arbital.com/p/-4hf) $A_5$ on five elements, then [it is a union of conjugacy classes](https://arbital.com/p/4jw).
Additional... |
54ec9f07-ba9d-4074-bd4e-e1ac11036946 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 2/17/22: Coasting Downwards
As cases and hospitalizations continue to drop, restrictions are slowly being lifted and life is returning to its new normal. Masks are still sticking around in many places where they no longer make physical sense, and will doubtless continue to do this for some time, with the most im... |
e9887920-2f3f-4993-9ddf-898546db0dc6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Singularity FAQ
I wrote a new Singularity FAQ for the Singularity Institute's website. [Here it is](http://intelligence.org/singularityfaq). I'm sure it will evolve over time. Many thanks to those who helped me revise early drafts, especially Carl and Anna! |
fb1cb07a-2cd8-44ea-943d-4ae1e952b5c3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A Self-Embedded Probabilistic Model
One possibly-confusing point from the [Embedded Agents](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/embedded-agency) sequence: it’s actually not difficult to write down a self-embedded world model. Just as lazy data structures can represent infinite sequences in finite space, a lazily-evaluated p... |
ef0cddc7-94b9-433b-bf6a-017d3c7e42ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Goal-directedness: my baseline beliefs
In a short time I will be starting a project (funded by LTFF) under the supervision of Adam Shimi with the goal of deconfusing goal-directedness. I have decided to record the progress on this project on a biweekly basis here on LW, to test whether this helps to keep me accountabl... |
3929feeb-74d4-4a92-a3af-16a80c57d443 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Motivated Cognition and the Multiverse of Truth
Related to: Truth seeking is motivated cognition and Contingency is not arbitrary, Do Sufficiently Advanced Agents Use Logic?
I have a weird belief, it's both controversial and obscure:
1. Motivated Cognition (MC) has a serious chance to be a good epistemology.
2. Ev... |
93353b6d-053e-42e5-85b0-0188df220bdb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ETFE windows
Modern buildings have a lot of windows. If you look at a recent skyscraper, its facade is likely to be mostly glass. Why use glass for that? Why not use a sheet of plastic instead? Glass sheets are heavy and brittle; plastic film would be much lighter and cheaper.
The main problem with plastic film is UV... |
6c5f9db9-2561-4481-96ba-ae7f41173581 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New, Brief Popular-Level Introduction to AI Risks and Superintelligence
The very popular blog Wait But Why has published the first part of a two-part explanation/summary of AI risks and superintelligence, and it looks like the second part will be focused on Friendly AI. I found it very clear, reasonably thorough and a... |
e289a0d8-1d93-4bc4-be16-392c3e216726 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Unsurprisingly related to: Ugh fields.
If I had to choose a single piece of evidence off of which to argue that the rationality assumption of neoclassical economics is totally, irretrievably incorrect, it's this article about financial incentives and medication compliance. In short, offering people small cash incentiv... |
ff3c37b3-1453-4c69-bbac-bfa0e27cb8c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Impactful data science projects
I am considering switching my career to more data science/machine learning (possibly, AI safety if I happen to be good at it). As a start, I want to complete a data science project (to add to my resume and to practice new skills). Is there anything like the Effective Thesis organization... |
145cb6f0-8da9-41ae-b3d3-7efdf63b5801 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Big Are Covid Particles?
To assess what sort of filtration you might want for reducing covid risk, it would be useful to know how the different sizes of aerosol particles contribute to covid spread. Unfortunately, we don't know that much here.
We know that sars-cov-2 itself is ~0.1µm, but it's probably not transm... |
93b94306-c1fb-4727-a8ea-1960efef0f41 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Physiology of Willpower
This paper (PDF)1 looks more than a little interesting:
> Past research indicates that self-control relies on some sort of limited energy source. This review suggests that blood glucose is one important part of the energy source of selfcontrol. Acts of self-control deplete relatively large... |
2ec0a410-b55f-4f8a-872a-d65da6454ffc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Claude 3.5 Sonnet
There is a new clear best (non-tiny) LLM.
If you want to converse with an LLM, the correct answer is Claude Sonnet 3.5.
It is available for free on Claude.ai and the Claude iOS app, or you can subscribe for higher rate limits. The API cost is $3 per million input tokens and $15 per million outpu... |
f12222fa-4cca-4f79-afe6-d22bb3d0e996 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Ethics Notes
Today's post, Ethics Notes was originally published on 21 October 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Some responses to comments about the idea of Ethical Injunctions.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the original post).
This post is part of the Rerunning th... |
7b5a1308-2a4d-43a4-a82d-1f4368e9cc49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Three levels of exploration and intelligence
There are two interpretations of this post, weak and strong.
Weak interpretation:
I describe a framework about "three levels of exploration". I use the framework to introduce some of my ideas. I hope that the framework will give more context to my ideas, making them more ... |
ee423cb1-a0c4-4fed-8399-2f50f02eeb5f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | A request to keep pessimistic AI posts actionable.
There's a psychological phenomenon that I can't remember the name of, but essentially, and subconsciously, a person tries to make others around them feel stressed and anxious in order to mitigate their own stress and anxiety.
I see a lot of this in mainstream climate... |
6fc387ab-1fcb-446a-880a-85f13692100f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will the Bitcoin fee market actually work?
Based on other posts I've seen on here, many of you are Bitcoiners. While I clearly see the value proposition, I have a few questions about the protocol that haven't been answered, and I figure the lesswrong audience is my best change.
1.) Will the fee market actually work?
... |
d88eed7f-bf9b-4855-9143-5753a5071cdb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Yet another Sleeping Beauty
leeping Beauty is put to sleep on Sunday. If the coin lands on heads, she is awakened only on Monday. If it lands on tails, she is awaken on Monday and Tuesday, and has her memory erased between them. Each time she is awoken, she is asked how likely it is the coin landed on tails.
Accordin... |
7c33a723-3701-4a90-8476-8e1035e055c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An even deeper atheism
(Cross-posted from my website. Podcast version here, or search for "Joe Carlsmith Audio" on your podcast app.
This essay is part of a series I'm calling "Otherness and control in the age of AGI." I'm hoping that individual essays can be read fairly well on their own, but see here for brief summ... |
3aef5e59-5fec-44e6-b33e-ed0ec91ece39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Godel's Completeness and Incompleteness Theorems
Followup to: Standard and Nonstandard Numbers
So... last time you claimed that using first-order axioms to rule out the existence of nonstandard numbers - other chains of numbers besides the 'standard' numbers starting at 0 - was forever and truly impossible, even unto... |
393ec31d-429e-4861-af14-96ba834bfbdf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | wrapper-minds are the enemy
This post is a follow-up to "why assume AGIs will optimize for fixed goals?". I'll assume you've read that one first.
I ended the earlier post by saying:
> [A]gents with the "wrapper structure" are inevitably hard to align, in ways that agents without it might not be. An AGI "like me" m... |
9d908db5-df83-4d1a-8deb-a6f6a5c501b0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI safety scholarships look worth-funding (if other funding is sane)
Funders tend to think that specific subsets of early-career AI safety researchers are worth funding:
* OpenPhil has its fellowship for AI researchers who happen to be [highly prestigious](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-ri... |
80418826-074a-4c13-baf3-f752e19c7301 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Subjective probability
What does it *mean* to say that a flipped coin has a 50% probability of landing heads?
There are multiple ways to answer this question, depending on what you mean by "probability". This page discusses "subjective probabilities," which are a tool for quantifying your personal uncertainty about t... |
35252b33-5964-407e-88e4-465dffa59b49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is your favorite podcast?
I'm looking for podcast recommendations from the LessWrong community. If you have a favorite podcast, please share:
1. What is the podcast?
2. What specifically do you like about it?
3. What concepts or topics does it teach particularly well?
4. Why do you consider its content trust... |
8fe73314-7b9c-4b59-afcd-eed5dc5daff6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Baltimore Area Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore Area Meetup
WHEN: 03 January 2016 02:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 1852 Reisterstown Rd, Pikesville, MD 21208
Meeting at the Panera Bread in Pikesville. We'll try to meet towards the corner away from the parking lot and to your left as you enter.... |
05b5fd2c-584a-4ac5-95fe-8f6bade39478 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Alignment, Goals, and The Gut-Head Gap: A Review of Ngo. et al.
(Cross-posted from my [Substack](https://theviolethour.substack.com/p/alignment-goals-and-the-gut-head). Also on the [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2yyZqRParGeLEja5u/alignment-goals-and-the-gut-head-gap-a-review-of-ngo-et-al))
If so... |
346c6226-079e-4c34-949a-756b639eef70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Evidence for Question Decomposition is Weak
Question decomposition appears to be a relatively common method for forecasting, see Allyn-Feuer & Sanders 2023, Silver 2016, Kaufman 2011 and Hanson 2011, but there have been conceptual arguments against this technique, see Yudkowsky 2017 and Gwern 2019, which both stat... |
83aced94-b04d-4488-b6a4-8bf7a03f64a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Taking Initial Viral Load Seriously
In part a response to (Overcoming Bias): Variolation May Cut Covid19 Deaths 3-30X
Also related: This is an expansion of parts of this debate with Robin Hanson.
Epistemic Status: Thinking out loud. Food for thought. Not an expert.
Initial viral load seems likely to have a large im... |
ced10a50-79a5-42c8-a5c1-67742c6c5e18 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why are religious societies more cohesive?
Reported by the Economist (and discussed on Overcoming Bias), religion brings social cooperation. Attempts to synthesise secular solidarity out of god-free rituals tend to fail. So why is this?
A hypothesis:
Social cohesion is a result of citizens sharing a desire to belie... |
d3c76b64-7226-4138-a0a3-36a55d0e4fad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How likely is AGI to force us all to be happy forever? (much like in the Three Worlds Collide novel)
Hi, everyone. I'm not sure if my post is well-written, but I think LW might be the only right place to have this discussion. Feel free to suggest changes.
----------------------------------------
AGI may arrive soon ... |
8c5874e5-254c-462b-94e8-40cff296a1cc | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Luna located the Ravenclaw Common Room on the map. She climbed up to Ravenclaw Tower, then climbed up Ravenclaw Tower. All that separated Luna from making day-one friends was a door with a bronze knocker in the shape of an eagle which spoke riddles appropriate for first-years. She could almost hear muffled sounds of t... |
1bf25be9-6d10-448d-b3dc-47f3b07e3d11 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Reference request] Can Love be Explained?
Proximity, physical attraction, happenstance, personality, wealth, health, values, shared experiences, individual preferences.
What factors primarily determine falling in love with someone?
I'm looking for reliable scientific sources quantitifying the relative contribution ... |
240d2908-c79a-427d-9ad8-19c928e7c126 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gears-Level Understanding, Deliberate Performance, The Strategic Level
Gears-Level Understanding
It seems to be important to distinguish between two kinds of knowing: the knowing that comes from listening to trusted sources, and the knowing that comes from seeing why the world couldn’t possibly be any other way.
Let’... |
5d0f5132-cb85-4e9d-8595-68af8ab17877 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hawking on AI
[This](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stephen-hawking-transcendence-looks-at-the-implications-of-artificial-intelligence--but-are-we-taking-ai-seriously-enough-9313474.html) |
27875f61-858c-45ec-9845-ad823e83e987 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to invest in expectation of AGI?
I think there is a very high probability of AGI becoming a reality in less than 5 years. I am trying to figure out a good investment strategy given this prediction while keeping in mind that there is a good chance the prediction is wrong.
I am assuming AGI at first will require ve... |
be216b7b-3989-43f8-af5f-eaad4843249e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LW Team] Request for User-Interviews about Tagging/Search/Wikis
How to Sign Up
If you're up for talking to me about your experience with or thoughts about tagging, please schedule a call: https://calendly.com/ruby_lesswrong
You don't have to have super sophisticated UI design thoughts to help out here. I'm interest... |
7d17dcb4-3ec6-4d54-b5a3-2e7bb01ce4bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sun-following Garden Mirrors?
A friend of ours across the street has a small front garden, but since we're in Boston, their house faces north, and it's three stories tall the garden gets almost no direct sun. [1] Could we fix this with a mirror?
If I put a static mirror on the front of our house, even on an angled mo... |
c6fc4de6-eddd-423c-93d2-4a41b701a8a5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Misfortune and Many Worlds
Summary: The Many-Worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics can help us feel better about improbable bad events, since the things we value remain unaffected in most other worlds.
I’ve previously suggested that when we think about the ethical implications of the many-worlds interpretation ... |
21121922-9fe1-47aa-8b5d-78c7b474c0c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there an intuitive way to explain how much better superforecasters are than regular forecasters?
Is there an intuitive way to explain how much better superforecasters are than regular forecasters? (I can look at the tables in https://www.researchgate.net/publication/277087515_Identifying_and_Cultivating_Superforeca... |
7c084b2a-baca-4026-8551-14a60fc5f87c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Averaging samples from a population with log-normal distribution
This was originally a comment on this post by mruwnik regarding averaging various distributions with different distributions. I made it a post to include pictures.
The Central Limit Theorem, henceforth CLT, states (in my own words) that regardless of th... |
f8d8b2a6-fe46-49d0-af2a-b249d2931ad3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Questions about ''formalizing instrumental goals"
*Epistemic Status: Autodidact outsider who suspects he has something to add to the conversation about AI risk.*
Abstract
This essay raises questions about the methodology, and thus conclusions, reached in the paper “[Formalizing Convergent Instrumental Goals](htt... |
b1326316-d8e5-4544-a08e-0eb2e59c0d60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AXRP Episode 29 - Science of Deep Learning with Vikrant Varma
YouTube link
In 2022, it was announced that a fairly simple method can be used to extract the true beliefs of a language model on any given topic, without having to actually understand the topic at hand. Earlier, in 2021, it was announced that neural netwo... |
c9755c25-0e0e-4dcc-b5a1-5c805705cedf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | INTERVIEW: Round 2 - StakeOut.AI w/ Dr. Peter Park
Hi again, I'm back with the second episode covering my interview with Dr. Peter Park, an AI Existential Safety Postdoctoral Fellow working with Dr. Max Tegmark at MIT. Dr. Park was a cofounder of StakeOut.AI, a non-profit focused on making AI go well for humans, alon... |
4c64f7f9-b6e7-4c0b-8c2a-a75f79315a41 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learning societal values from law as part of an AGI alignment strategy
This post argues that P(misalignment x-risk | AGI) is lower than anticipated by alignment researchers due to an overlooked goal specification technology: law.
> P(misalignment x-risk | AGI that understands democratic law) < P(misalignment x-risk ... |
30a7c15e-a91d-4208-b73b-4244ef820613 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | How to study superintelligence strategy
(Last updated Feb. 11, 2015.)
What could an economics graduate student do to improve our strategic picture of superintelligence? What about a computer science professor? A policy analyst at RAND? A program director at IARPA?
In the last chapter of [*Superintelligence*](http:... |
5aed19ce-73dc-4f83-8222-f96c018c5cba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Best Popular Books on Every Subject
I enjoy reading popular-level books on a wide variety of subjects, and I love getting new book recommendations. In the spirit of lukeprog's The Best Textbooks on Every Subject, can we put together a list of the best popular books on every subject?
Here's what I mean by popular-... |
f5b5fe25-36a5-4dea-b458-70cd2e513f87 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Lose a Fair Game
Part 3 of the Inefficient Markets sequence.
[I am not your financial advisor! Examples are illustrations of principles for educational purposes only, to help you make your own financial decisions with due diligence. Read part 1 first.]
Suppose I offer you a deal: You will flip a fair coin. If... |
a23d8592-fb72-434b-8561-374bc8462d39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hedging the Possibility of Russia invading Ukraine
Assume that you know with a high degree of confidence that Russia will invade Ukraine in February 2022.
Also assume that you have an investment portfolio invested 100% in VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market Index).
You think that if Russia invades Ukraine, this will ... |
1796ca1b-5d05-4674-b065-f8571487dddd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Counterexamples to some ELK proposals
(*This post was written as part of my work at the* [*Alignment Research Center*](https://alignment.org/)*.*)
In this post I’ll describe some possible approaches to eliciting latent knowledge (ELK) not discussed in [our report](https://docs.google.com/document/u/0/d/1WwsnJQstPq91_... |
f23b1c47-bf39-4a3e-9396-f188a764934f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I Trained a Neural Network to Play Helltaker
In my experience, the most tedious parts of every machine learning project is annotating training data for my model. It would be nice if I could play a videogame with a keylogger and then train a neural network to copy me. That way my computer could play videogames for me w... |
606b0000-fb9c-4135-b83f-c2dd46f578d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hammertime Intermission #2
The final cycle of Hammertime will return on 3/12.
This is an open thread for feedback about Hammertime.
Other Resources
Owen Shen has been writing about instrumental rationality for a long time at MindLevelUp. This material is much more coherent and actually cites the science behind the ... |
cbfe72de-89ff-44c9-ae6e-9952803303e4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Research Questions from Stained Glass Windows
I just read [Scott Alexander's recent ACX blog post](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/a-guide-to-asking-robots-to-design) on DALL-E 2 and I think it suggests many possible hypotheses about the internals of models. Could we test these with our current interpretability ... |
5541b641-fc83-48cd-b7b6-eebe21f1efb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chording Bass
When using my foot pedals to play bass, I've primarily been using them to specify the current chord. I'll play the same pedal on each downbeat, switching when the current chord changes. There are a lot of things you can do with this, but on a real bass you'd normally play some things that are much more c... |
82ec16ba-17f3-4b76-b8d3-2061d15bbdb7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | When will digital compute match the human brain?
Open Philanthropy has a [nice write-up](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/how-much-computational-power-does-it-take-to-match-the-human-brain/) with a range of estimates for the (upper bound of the) compute required to train a human brain-level AGI. The author gi... |
5cf5622e-58a0-49e9-a366-bdb28a702b5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New LW Meetup: Cambridge UK
This summary was posted to LW Main on November 13th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Reviving Cambridge Meetups : 15 November 2015 05:00PM
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
... |
0c227a5b-1fa2-4361-9d56-552fd6404e0f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Critique my Model: The EV of AGI to Selfish Individuals
[Edit: Changes suggested in the comments make this model & its takeaways somewhat outdated (this was one desired outcome of posting it here!). Be sure to read the comments.]
I recently spent a while attempting to explain my views on the EV of AGI for selfish ind... |
4aa422af-7491-4031-b0b0-5fc662fec947 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ted Talk Related to Rationality
Newly published presentation shows vividly why eyewitness testimony are false, ironically through storytelling based on the presenter's memory. This is something I know for quite a while, so I am glad that the knowledge is getting dispersed to a wider audience. It also shows how importa... |
0701f10c-67b5-4b3f-8387-7544874e8a04 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Proxy Political Party
The article here makes the point that it should be possible now to use software to enable a democracy that allows voters to stay updated on and actively participate in specific issues, rather than on a whole party identity. It suggests its software to be integrated into existing democratic pr... |
11fb3cb8-a822-4f32-9be9-9b73f196c1bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Revealed and Stated Identity
In modern America, many people think of their identity as a thing they own. If I say I’m a Brony, have a non-binary gender, or identify as transracial, then that’s it, and so much the worse for you if you perceive me as otherwise. This is an empowering idea that lets people escape the conf... |
1a369bde-c605-426a-a58d-734685e0ac8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | S-risks: Why they are the worst existential risks, and how to prevent them
|
bd64ec37-ba2c-4e8b-872b-3874842b79b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Could you save lives in your community by buying oxygen concentrators from Alibaba?
Alibaba (and Amazon) sell lots of "portable oxygen concentrators" in bulk for $200 - $300 a piece, e.g this one. These seem to differ from medical-grade oxygen concentrators (which you need a prescription to buy) in that they deliver l... |
431df340-81e1-41ae-b531-6e26a0ed5940 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why will an AGI be rational?
Just as there is such a thing as intelligence, a "very general ability to solve problems", there is such a thing as "rationality", which we might define informally as meaning that solutions and actions are consistent with some "purpose".
By this definition, rationality constrains a syste... |
129896c1-baa2-4de5-8b15-119fda6c27e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Cambridge, MA Third Sunday Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Cambridge, MA Third Sunday Meetup
WHEN: 20 May 2012 02:20:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 25 Ames St, Cambridge MA
Cambridge/Boston-area Less Wrong meetups on the first and third Sunday of every month, 2pm at the MIT Landau Building [25 Ames St, Bld... |
cbb4c3ee-e54c-4585-a4dc-a9f8ae520acf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | ELK contest submission: route understanding through the human ontology
This is an ELK proposal that received a prize in the category "[**Train a reporter that is useful to an auxiliary AI**](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zjMKpSB2Xccn9qi5t/elk-prize-results#Strategy__train_a_reporter_that_is_useful_for_another_AI)**"... |
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