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79e38e2d-2dde-434d-95cd-c3a8020e53bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Outrage Bonding
I stopped following the news back when Trump (first?)[1] got elected. The amount of attention put on a foreign[2] election was staggering, with normal media saccades replaced by Monk-level single-mindedness. Trump was the permanent spotlight for months.
The media’s fixation on Trump had interesting do... |
28d21bd3-18c6-46b4-b969-79747cc65f31 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | ""The map is not the territory," as the saying goes. The only life-size, atomically detailed, 100% accurate map of California is California. But California has important regularities, such as the shape of its highways, that can be described using vastly less information—not to mention vastly less physical material—than... |
69069677-1651-4818-b713-8df7194569ed | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Stampy's AI Safety Info soft launch
[Stampy’s AI Safety Info](https://aisafety.info) is a project to create an interactive FAQ about existential risk from AI, started by [Rob Miles](https://www.youtube.com/c/robertmilesai). Our goal is to build a single resource aimed at informing all audiences, whether that means giv... |
22f1187f-3bb9-4264-a6d8-3d4d170f7089 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How I Learned To Stop Trusting Prediction Markets and Love the Arbitrage
This is a story about a flawed Manifold market, about how easy it is to buy significant objective-sounding publicity for your preferred politics, and about why I've downgraded my respect for all but the largest prediction markets.
I've had a Man... |
f5fc3c75-f3b6-4767-a182-c8b669a094af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Detroit Lions -- over confidence is over rated?
Epistemic status -- anecdotal, lack of expertise, speculative, zero fact checking.
At first I was happy about the Lions doing well given the stigma around that franchise (Only extant NFL franchise to never even reach the Super Bowl. They also had a 0-16 season.). But th... |
99c8cfd2-164b-4051-8ad0-e783ec4ac336 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Frugality
This post examines the virtue of frugality (a.k.a. thrift, economy). I hope it will be helpful to people who want to know more about this virtue and how to nurture it.
What is this virtue?
Frugality concerns the efficiency of your economic choices: how you earn you living, husband resources, spend... |
a4245306-4fc2-4dd9-8915-ec963f02fc03 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Risk" means surprise
I lost about $20,000 in 2013 because I didn't notice that a company managing some of my retirement funds had helpfully reallocated them from 100% stocks into bonds and real estate, to "avoid risk". My parents are retired, and everyone advising them tells them to put most of their money in "safe" ... |
395ad047-b56e-494c-b4f9-4717e5c0c594 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Critiquing Scasper's Definition of Subjunctive Dependence
Before we get to the main part, a note: this post discusses subjunctive dependence, and assumes the reader has a background in Functional Decision Theory (FDT). For readers who don't, I recommend [this paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05060.pdf) by Eliezer Yud... |
bf8db71f-8dac-4e46-b4ab-b7bde0e86f5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread: December 2009
ITT we talk about whatever. |
26c72413-79a9-4cd7-adc6-c4004d21fafa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/distill | Distill Scientific Journal | Branch Specialization
This article is part of the [Circuits thread](/2020/circuits/), an experimental format collecting invited short articles and critical commentary delving into the inner workings of neural networks.
[Visualizing Weights](/2020/circuits/visualizing-weights/)
[Wei... |
ea5609b5-c9c6-4b23-bc6f-7ce11ab9e28b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Boltzmann Brains and Anthropic Reference Classes (Updated)
Summary: There are claims that Boltzmann brains pose a significant problem for contemporary cosmology. But this problem relies on assuming that Boltzmann brains would be part of the appropriate reference class for anthropic reasoning. Is there a good reason to... |
ea472020-f7eb-4e74-b8ee-945589de44f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where can I find good explanations of the central limit theorems for people with a Bayesian background?
My knowledge of probability theory is based mostly on reading E.T. Jaynes’ Probability Theory book, Andrew Gelman’s blog, and various LessWrong posts. I now want to get a strong grasp of the central limit theorem(s)... |
424c89df-3cd5-4799-bec6-c62f1a864e8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : London Newcomers-Are-Especially-Welcome Meetup, March 29th
Discussion article for the meetup : London Newcomers-Are-Especially-Welcome Meetup, March 29th
WHEN: 29 March 2015 01:00:00PM (+0000)
WHERE: Holborn, London
We recently had an HP:MoR wrap party in London which had a lot of attendees we'd never met ... |
ea4a9edb-cd7a-42f3-8c42-c434abb58aaf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Biorisk is an Unhelpful Analogy for AI Risk
There are two main areas of catastrophic or existential risk which have recently received significant attention; biorisk, from natural sources, biological accidents, and biological weapons, and artificial intelligence, from detrimental societal impacts of systems, incautious... |
45872ee9-e603-4c97-87fd-e68e1f07edbe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Consequences of increased ability to kill
At present, if one person chooses to, they can kill a few dozen to a few hundred people. As we discover new technologies, that number is, most likely, only going to go up - to the point where any given individual has the power to kill millions. (And this isn't a very distant f... |
dde5e10e-b69d-4d09-96d0-61ea90a5fd21 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Trying to disambiguate different questions about whether RLHF is “good”
(A few of the words in this post were written by Ryan Greenblatt and Ajeya Cotra. Thanks to Oliver Habryka and Max Nadeau for particularly helpful comments.)
Sometimes people want to talk about whether RLHF is “a promising alignment strategy”, or... |
23d76f4b-e529-4985-a515-7d1da240ed21 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's the information value of government hearings?
Background:
* Bounded Distrust - by Scott Alexander - Astral Codex Ten
I'm curious about both:
* Generalities – for all/most/some governments (and different types of hearings if that's relevant)
* Specifics – (relatively) concrete details about specific govern... |
415eeaad-ca5b-4da3-b3d2-13ed43840a6e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Gödel encoding and self-reference
A Gödel encoding is a way of using the formal machinery of proving theorems in arithmetic to discuss that very machinery. [Kurt Gödel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_G%C3%B6del) rocked the world of mathematics in 1931 by showing that this was possible, and that it had surprising c... |
5f584860-c7e1-436c-bf67-f169def440cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Base your self-esteem on your rationality
Some time ago, I wrote a piece called "How to argue LIKE STALIN - and why you shouldn't". It was a comment on the tendency, which is very widespread online, to judge an argument not by its merits, but by the motive of the arguer. And since it's hard to determine someone else... |
32c1ae5e-ac85-411f-b283-17b0393cd02b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Definition of AI Friendliness
How will we know if future AI’s (or even existing planners) are making decisions that are bad for humans unless we spell out what we think is unfriendly?
At a machine level the AI would be recursively minimising cost functions to produce the most effective plan of action to achieve the go... |
4a1c7c9d-a5fb-4720-8656-d471f9772d57 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Conversation with Ernie Davis
AI Impacts spoke with computer scientist Ernie Davis about his views of AI risk. With his permission, we have transcribed this interview.
### Participants
* [**Ernest Davis**](https://cs.nyu.edu/davise/) – professor of computer science at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Science,... |
fb667e07-babf-4967-8ed4-a2971bde3f57 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Micro feedback loops and learning
Tldr: some not-particularly-ordered thoughts about how learning works in humans, via the example of singing.
A high-tech feedback loop
I recently discovered Singer’sStudio, an iPhone app for voice training that is approximately the Best Thing Ever (h/t Raemon). It’s a work of pedago... |
997af1e8-8c31-4cfa-8bae-4099219efc7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are we running out of new music/movies/art from a metaphysical perspective? (updated)
(This is an updated question I asked 7 years ago here. I wanted to see if any users have additional thoughts.)
It is difficult to judge at first, but it appears that some music genres (classical and jazz especially) have seen a radi... |
9c698fa9-d060-4046-b07f-ecc1e79c0678 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Another (outer) alignment failure story
Meta
This is a story where the alignment problem is somewhat harder than I expect, society handles AI more competently than I expect, and the outcome is worse than I expect. It also involves inner alignment turning out to be a surprisingly small problem. Maybe the story is 10-20... |
15b07f4d-8d41-4730-bfdb-368d0f7cfbe8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Steelman / Ideological Turing Test of Yann LeCun's AI X-Risk argument?
Yann LeCun has been saying a lot of things on social media recently about this topic, only some of which I've read. He's also written and talked about it several times in the past. Most of what I've seen from him recently seems to not be addressing... |
9f0db071-a4d1-40a6-926f-0966e0567201 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #153]: Experiments that demonstrate failures of objective robustness
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[thi... |
109efd8f-43dd-44a7-85da-b1224f70e978 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anthropics: Full Non-indexical Conditioning (FNC) is inconsistent
I'll be using Full non-indexical conditioning (FNC) as an example of anthropic reasoning. Given that, it's useful to know that FNC is (time) inconsistent: the expected future probability is not the same as the current probability. I can't find a full wr... |
46b7f563-31e0-4a6e-a436-98d88b20e6f1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | 6 Year Decrease of Metaculus AGI Prediction
Metaculus [now predicts](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/?fbclid=IwAR252Rqm7M3iIpRdTscccIPzkIjrCLaIYMKwP7amaKT3L2ExRWlIRZ3QhW0) that the first AGI[[1]](#fnz0dv2dhekeo)... |
b3828edb-a4ff-41b6-8696-d524e9b3d037 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The Fallacy of Gray
Today's post, The Fallacy of Gray was originally published on 07 January 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Nothing is perfectly black or white. Everything is gray. However, this does not mean that everything is the same shade of gray. It may be impossible to completely eli... |
3506d30a-8e78-43e3-812c-9457e960c9d8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Announcing the GovAI Policy Team
The AI governance space needs more rigorous work on what influential actors (e.g. governments and AI labs) should do in the next few years to prepare the world for advanced AI.
We’re setting up a Policy Team at the Centre for the Governance of AI (GovAI) to help address this gap. The... |
49c83eb0-2dcd-47cb-9dfb-ba968f6181fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Semiotic Critique of the Orthogonality Thesis
> “Intelligence and final goals are orthogonal axes along which possible agents can freely vary. In other words, more or less any level of intelligence could in principle be combined with more or less any final goal.”
That quote above is the orthogonality thesis, as def... |
56f32174-e263-4563-aa9e-7739ba60a59a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The "Other" Option
For this post, I commissioned Misha Yagudin, a top-ranked forecaster, to provide feedback and commentary. I include selected comments as quotes throughout.
For open-ended questions, it's easy to underestimate the number of plausible outcomes. For instance, while practicing for the forecasting class... |
d1223678-637b-483c-8aad-748f3e1a6639 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Re-Examining LayerNorm
Please check out the colab notebook for interactive figures and more detailed technical explanations.
This post is part of the work done at Conjecture.
Special thanks to Sid Black, Dan Braun, Carlos Ramón Guevara, Beren Millidge, Chris Scammell, Lee Sharkey, and Lucas Teixeira for feedback on ... |
6f16cb34-2847-492a-a6aa-2a4932964552 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does anyone use advanced media projects?
Epistemic status: exploratory.
I am using "advanced media projects" as sort of a catch-all umbrella for people working on better ways to present and explore information. I suppose the obvious hub for this kind of thing is places like the MIT Media Lab, but here are a few other... |
d5e86048-8a80-489c-8f16-5b3801fdabc3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Facebook AI: A state-of-the-art open source chatbot
Abstract:
> Building open-domain chatbots is a challenging area for machine learning research. While prior work has shown that scaling neural models in the number of parameters and the size of the data they are trained on gives improved results, we show that other i... |
caaeb5a1-d26a-4fb5-9739-4246d670e5cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Murphy’s Quest Ch 5: Fail Gracefully
“I need healing!”
“Murph, over here! I’m wounded!”
“Heal me!”
“I need healing!”
I aim my Initiate Chimes at Plun and cast Heal. The spell sends a circular golden orb crawling through the air. It misses my party by a wide margin and vanishes into the dungeon wall.
“I need heali... |
e0118d68-fa2b-4d1a-9f63-7a182fc98a6e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A mechanistic model of meditation
Meditation has been claimed to have all kinds of transformative effects on the psyche, such as improving concentration ability, healing trauma, [cleaning up delusions](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QqSNFcGSZdnARx56E/meditation-insight-and-rationality-part-1-of-3), allowing one to [t... |
1eed6cbb-3369-4d82-ae88-9ca989dcc7ab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Power to Judge Startup Ideas
This is Part III of the Specificity Sequence
When Steve claims that Acme exploits its workers, he's role-playing the surface behaviors of an opinionated intellectual, but doesn't bother to actually be an opinionated intellectual, which would require him to nail down a coherent opinion... |
0a58742e-865c-4c63-8f13-8df47d1055fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Problem with Human Intuition about Conventional Statistics:
As an aspiring scientist, I hold the Truth above all. As Hodgell once said, "That which can be destroyed by the truth should be." But what if the thing that is holding our pursuit of the Truth back is our own system? I will share an example of an argumen... |
6deae524-3de5-495a-bcbf-a8c987b0aa51 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Voting Phase for 2019 Review
Click here to begin voting. Click here for a general overview of the 2019 review.
We are now in the final stretches of the LessWrong 2019 Review. We’ve spent 2 weeks nominating posts, and a month reviewing them. And today, we begin the final vote!
A recap on the major goals of the Review... |
42a08f11-5ca2-4ca5-af54-b33bb5cd5c42 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Regulating AI for the safety of humanity | Ayush Patel | TEDxQESchool
Transcriber: Maurício Kakuei Tanaka
Reviewer: omar idmassaoud
“The development of full
artificial intelligence
could spell the end of the human race.”
The words of Stephen Hawking.
Do you want to live in a society
of constant AI surveillance
and inv... |
943da23d-5ba8-4891-ab54-672d7856c9a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An attempt to list out my core values and virtues
Last week a friend pressed upon me the importance of writing your own culture. It was a small part of a multi-hour conversation, and I'm not sure if I'm interpreted their meaning correctly, but the correct-seeming-to-me position I took from it was something like this:
... |
e26f035d-7142-4cc4-b04d-4756929d0e7e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Friendly AI Research and Taskification
Eliezer has written a great deal about the concept of Friendly AI, for example in a document from 2001 titled Creating Friendly AI 1.0. The new SIAI overview states that:
> SIAI's primary approach to reducing AI risks has thus been to promote the development of AI with benevolen... |
76a60be6-1be3-4588-8d57-6da799a91d51 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Epistemological Braces
When engaging in debate with an eye toward victory, that is, with the goal being to change your opponent's mind, the ideal circumstance is that each participant is able to engage on equal footing, supported by nothing but the strength of their own knowledge and arguments. However, this not alway... |
0fe21a06-4272-409d-a6a6-c43d8e49a032 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pack a travel bathroom bag
About a year ago, I realized that packing all my bathroom stuff was one of the more difficult and annoying and error-prone parts of packing for travel. So, without planning on going anywhere, I packed my travel bathroom bag.
This bag had all the things I was previously likely to forget – to... |
73d58d82-68cf-4241-9ee3-20ebc60881f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Empirically assess your time use
Original post on my blog: http://bearlamp.com.au/empirically-assess-your-time-use/
168 hours
You and me both buddy. We both have equal access to our 168 hours. We have different demands on our hours like the need for sleep or how demanding our job is, but fundamentally we all start... |
ad5548da-93c2-44e1-9c9f-86e5b5cad250 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Paying the corrigibility tax
In my recent post on [steering systems](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LsqvMKnFRBQh4L3Rs/steering-systems), I [sketched](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LsqvMKnFRBQh4L3Rs/steering-systems#A_sketch_of_a_powerful_steering_system) an AI system which chooses which actions to execute via tree ... |
5348552c-7b9f-4e72-89b0-9eadf87a175d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Satisfaction Levers
(Cross-posted on my blog: http://garybasin.com/satisfaction-levers/)
I believe gnawing and uncomfortable sensations (nihilism, restlessness, etc) that one may not quite understand how to resolve are a manifestation of poorly understood desires, and there are concrete practices one can develop to h... |
045a8193-5b89-4466-918c-9d5f2078379d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We’re in Deep Research
The latest addition to OpenAI’s Pro offerings is their version of Deep Research. Have you longed for 10k word reports on anything your heart desires, 100 times a month, at a level similar to a graduate student intern? We have the product for you.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. The Pitch.
2. It’s Com... |
b9e70f24-a137-4698-98f1-242e886caf09 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agisf | AGI Safety Fund | How technical safety standards could promote TAI safety
How technical safety standards
could promote TAI safety
Cullen O’Keefe, Jade Leung, Markus Anderljung 1 2
Summary
Standard-setting is often an important component of technology safety
regulation. However, we suspect that existing standard-setting inf... |
02c1a612-27b8-4fd8-91e8-671e1d87e5b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, March 2015, chapter 114 + chapter 115
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 114, and also, as a special case due to the exc... |
6f8c3eaa-f871-4d80-bf62-e6522ef96a8e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | How to become more agentic, by GPT-EA-Forum-v1
Sample Article
==============
One of the exciting things about the future is that we’ll be able to accelerate our own flourishing and the flourishing of the world. But this will only become possible if we do the work needed to make ourselves more agentic. I think we’re a... |
118151ab-976a-4280-bad4-f3a63007971b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI Safety 101 - Chapter 5.1 - Debate
This text is an adapted excerpt from the 'Adversarial techniques for scalable oversight' section of the AGISF 2023 course, held at ENS Ulm in Paris in April 2023. **Its purpose is to provide a concise overview of the essential aspects of the session's program for readers who may no... |
a0cf2ccc-7317-4ea4-b555-4340e1951b84 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Strategic Implications of Openness in AI Development
Strategic Implications of Openness in AI
Development
Nick Bostrom
Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Abstract
This paper attempts a preliminary analysis of the global desirability of different forms of openness in AI developme... |
2cf1e3ff-e296-4fe8-8bd6-3d37d7e71985 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Book Review: 12 Rules For Life
Book Review: 12 Rules For Life
------------------------------
Jordan Peterson's *12 Rules For Life: An Antidote To Chaos* is a burger of self-help life advice.
The core meat is mostly good advice; everyone will find some of the rules obvious but not others, but which ones those are w... |
5c39af37-01c8-4045-8f77-5e127bb0051e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Confusing the metric for the meaning: Perhaps correlated attributes are "natural"
Epistemic status: possibly trivial, but I hadn't heard it before.
TL;DR: What I thought of as a "flaw" in PCA—its inability to isolate pure metrics—might actually be a feature that aligns with our cognitive processes. We often think in ... |
830ebd44-6803-442e-b22c-de477df402ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Being Normal by Brian Caplan
Being Normal
> The Principle of Normality: A normal person says what others say, but does what others do.
I found this via a Tweet by Paul Graham:
> Very interesting point: Conformists conform separately in words and actions, and since conventional words are at odds with co... |
041e4765-9f84-46a6-9cf8-44d8232df129 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Questions on databases of AI Risk estimates
I was hoping to write something for the Future Fund contest and - being entirely a one-trick pony - was going to look at uncertainty analysis in AI Catastrophe predictions.
I've done a review of the forums and my conclusion is that predictions around AI Catastrophe are ver... |
12b49963-9baf-4672-9887-73cdb40d5b02 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Introduction to SAEs and their Variants for Mech Interp
I aim to cover a lot of ground, but only briefly. Click through the links for more detailed explanations.
Several of the techniques here see general use outside of interpretability. My definitions/references lean towards how they specifically apply to Mechani... |
023ec51d-7aec-4608-94db-584f972f41c2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI pause/governance advocacy might be net-negative, especially without focus on explaining the x-risk
I found myself repeating the same words to multiple people, hence a short post.
I think some of the AI pause/governance advocacy might be net-negative. Three reasons:
* Most importantly, it's easy to get regulation ... |
21a73b9c-a226-4e7a-ae69-d4a72acc8bfe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Schism Begets Schism
Related: On the importance of Less Wrong, or another single conversational locus
One thing that seems to be a pattern across the history of human organizations, projects, and even social scenes is that schism begets schism. In other words, if there is a large and central space, once people start ... |
68fb68c2-c164-4e94-8b77-0b2a4e30cfff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA: Wait a minute... just what is bias?
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA: Wait a minute... just what is bias?
WHEN: 03 June 2015 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 11066 santa monica blvd, la, ca
How to Find Us: Go into this Del Taco. We will be in the back room if possible.
Parking is free in the ... |
090e111b-136e-48cf-b65a-e6e432ce1693 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Eternal youth as eternal suffering
First, I must state, for the record, that I am personally all for eternal youth for anyone, for as long as they want to. (By "eternal" I mean somewhat less than infinity, maybe a few hundred years to start.)
That said, I have been listening to an interview with David Sedaris on NPR,... |
9cb623a3-c630-4cc3-bc07-3c61bb0721ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why did Russia invade Ukraine?
|
aaf0e8a8-edf2-4067-bb76-4cf87aa18aa2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Q for GiveWell: What is GiveDirectly's mechanism of action?
I first wrote up the following post, then happened to run into Holden Karnofsky in person and asked him a much-shortened form of the question verbally. My attempt to recount Holden's verbal reply is also given further below. I was moderately impressed by Ho... |
f83d9dfb-09e4-430c-8141-90f47b85d241 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Disagreement on AGI Suggests It’s Near
If I’m planning a holiday to New York (and I live pretty far from New York), it’s quite straightforward to get fellow travellers to agree that we need to buy plane tickets to New York. Which airport? Eh, whichever is more convenient, I guess. Alternatively, some may prefer a road... |
724b0c2a-9651-452f-93a3-6b626f552f55 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Graphing AI economic growth rates, or time to Dyson Swarm
BAU GWP is business as usual gross world product (the global equivalent of GDP).
Acknowledgements: Thanks to Robin Hanson, Anders Sandberg, and others for input on the lines. Errors are my own.
I graphed out a rough approximation[1] of a few leading AI figure... |
16547832-6a98-4e8c-8843-b131fb989802 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2018 Review: Voting Results!
The votes are in!
59 of the 430 eligible voters participated, evaluating 75 posts. Meanwhile, 39 users submitted a total of 120 reviews, with most posts getting at least one review.
Thanks a ton to everyone who put in time to think about the posts - nominators, reviewers and voters alik... |
562a69f5-624b-4906-b16d-c262fa2959c5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | MIRI strategy update: 2016
This post is a follow-up to Malo’s [2015 review](https://intelligence.org/2016/07/29/2015-in-review/), sketching out our new 2016-2017 plans. Briefly, our top priorities (in decreasing order of importance) are to (1) make technical progress on the research problems we’ve identified, (2) expa... |
7ec887e2-ff74-44ec-b859-9e375a2e844f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Codebook Features: Sparse and Discrete Interpretability for Neural Networks
CODEBOOK FEATURES : SPARSE AND DISCRETE
INTERPRETABILITY FOR NEURAL NETWORKS
Alex Tamkin
Anthropic†Mohammad Taufeeque
FAR AINoah D. Goodman
Stanford University
ABSTRACT
Understanding neural networks is challenging in part because of the dense,... |
3a585df5-058d-4c0d-80f3-afe04130f30f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Games for Rationalists
Follow-up to: Fun and Games with Cognitive Biases
Related to: Rationality Games & Apps Brainstorming, Rationality and Video Games
Answering: Designing serious games - a request for help
Games on Lesswrong
Rational games or game ideas have been discussed or mentioned on lesswrong a few times... |
29804ed7-2b47-4d6e-a783-98d674e8df50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Brief Explanation of AI Control
There are a bunch of great blog posts about the AI Control research direction, but there's not a short explanation/summary that I'm aware of. Here's an attempt at such an explanation, based on my understanding, and aimed at a reader with AISF-level knowledge of AI safety.
* We woul... |
df0bb40d-00b6-4212-95d1-2b59496f32f6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups: Austin, Buffalo, Cambridge MA, Dublin, Moscow, Ohio, Paderborn, Purdue, Washington DC
This summary was posted to LW main on February 1st. The following week's summary is here.
There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in:
* Fourth Purdue Meetup: 01 February 2013 06:50PM
* Les... |
3c7ebf05-23d7-4899-beab-5f0518b0680b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Boksops -- Ancient Superintelligence?
> [...] before long the skull came to the attention of S. H. Haughton, one of the country’s few formally trained paleontologists. He reported his findings at a 1915 meeting of the Royal Society of South Africa. “The cranial capacity must have been very large,” he said, and “calcul... |
d4c81b42-3438-4941-bccf-ec334fb410d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My recent thoughts on consciousness
I have lately come to seriously consider the view that the everyday notion of consciousness doesn’t refer to anything that exists out there in the world but is rather a confused (but useful) projection made by purely physical minds onto their depiction of themselves in the world. T... |
cd2dd332-059f-410d-9711-2ba635e132e7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Ring
summary(Technical): A ring $R$ is a triple $(X, \oplus, \otimes)$ where $X$ is a [set](https://arbital.com/p/3jz) and $\oplus$ and $\otimes$ are binary [operations](https://arbital.com/p/set_theory_operation) subject to the ring axioms. We write $x \oplus y$ for the application of $\oplus$ to $x, y \in X$, which ... |
375ae0b3-794c-42ba-8b37-24e09f873c1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AXRP Episode 38.3 - Erik Jenner on Learned Look-Ahead
YouTube link
Lots of people in the AI safety space worry about models being able to make deliberate, multi-step plans. But can we already see this in existing neural nets? In this episode, I talk with Erik Jenner about his work looking at internal look-ahead withi... |
c7f72482-1716-4fde-a923-da40395e0632 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Devil's Advocate: when is it right to be wrong?
That's a mighty ambitious title, isn't it? Sorry, I don't actually have an answer to the question though. All I have is an anecdote. Two warnings ahead of time:
* This involves politics, so feel free to skip it if you think that's too mind-killing. You can still pa... |
771a554a-d902-45b0-a0c6-f1e492be4b45 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Formal Limitations on the Measurement of Mutual Information
1 Introduction
---------------
Motivated by maximal mutual information (MMI) predictive coding
(McAllester, [2018](#bib.bib12); Stratos, [2018](#bib.bib17); Oord et al., [2018](#bib.bib14)),
we consider the problem of measuring mutual information.
A classi... |
d6f42789-aaab-4852-bef8-09b65015fcb1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Things "Meta" Can Mean
|
81783663-0274-4c46-8070-ba62cdcc765f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Completeness of simulations
Suppose I have an exact simulation of a human. Feeling ambitious, I decide to print out a GLUT of the action this human will take in every circumstance; while the simulation of course works at the level of quarks, I have a different program that takes lists of quark movements and translates... |
fb63f394-c891-4b6f-afa1-92c4e5e6ba1d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The special nature of special relativity
I honestly thought that both theories of relativity were theories of gravitation. Special and general relativity, the latter being the generalized version of the latter. That makes sense, right?
Then I started actually digging into special relativity. I studied the original a... |
eb3464dd-d807-415e-b287-d6afa4a2e81f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Career Day: A Short Story
(~5000 words, estimated reading time 35-40 minutes)
Career Day
By M. Flood
“Total destruction will come to those who laughed at me and failed to heed my warnings.”
“What was that sweetheart?” Maggie said, trying to hear her husband over the bubbling of the coffee percolator and the hiss... |
0620412c-3ba7-420b-b74b-1c73a6fc050a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Epistemic vs. Instrumental Rationality: Approximations
What is the probability that my apartment will be struck by a meteorite tomorrow? Based on the information I have, I might say something like 10-18. Now suppose I wanted to approximate that probability with a different number. Which is a better approximation: 0 or... |
e76f487e-3024-4575-bd50-71704aa6b011 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AIs Will Increasingly Attempt Shenanigans
Increasingly, we have seen papers eliciting in AI models various shenanigans.
There are a wide variety of scheming behaviors. You’ve got your weight exfiltration attempts, sandbagging on evaluations, giving bad information, shielding goals from modification, subverting tests ... |
6ff15e0e-acfa-4436-83d4-0f92bf4b5384 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AISC5 Retrospective: Mechanisms for Avoiding Tragedy of the Commons in Common Pool Resource Problems
Work by Quinn Dougherty, Ben Greenberg & Ariel Kwiatkowski
From the AI Safety Camp group that worked on Cooperativity and Common Pool Resources: a write-up of a problem we worked on, our proposed solution, and the re... |
9d9017a7-eb56-465d-88a0-ed2c61f0d713 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Books on the zeitgeist of science during Lord Kelvin's time.
> There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now. All that remains is more and more precise measurement.
(edit: looks like this question was based on a false impression of history, so nvm)
That Lord Kelvin apocryphal quote has always stuck out to me.... |
7fe994b8-1cca-42e6-a1fa-8ea20bc1299c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Urbana-Champaign: Finishing Up
Discussion article for the meetup : Urbana-Champaign: Finishing Up
WHEN: 14 December 2014 02:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 206 S. Cedar St, Urbana, IL
This is likely the last meetup of the semester. So let's try and look back on the past and collect some reminders of things that mig... |
eca5e943-e831-4558-bcf1-faa22ca977d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] Reasoning Under Uncertainty Videos
I just stumbled across this youtube "lecture series" by Trond Reitan which looks as a promising intro to Bayesian statistics http://www.youtube.com/trondreitan. Curious what others here think, could be a good resource to refer people to. Look for the "reasoning under uncerta... |
a1c7da31-f1ea-4ade-a9aa-9f9fd2412715 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Amateur Cryonics (one guy packed in dry ice) Festival Seeks Buyer
http://www.dailycamera.com/boulder-county-news/ci_18282009?source=most_viewed
I'd imagine the efficacy is halfway between proper cryonics and embalming and burying; the more interesting part may be the festival. Nederland is a small town 20 miles fro... |
62f16391-eaa0-4418-8d53-dcd61ec4f203 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NIH Cancer Myths Myths
The NIH has a page called Cancer Myths and Misconceptions that you come across if you end up looking into cancer for long enough, aimed at bio-illiterate patients and their families.
Around half the things on that page are wrong at face value, and a solid percentage of those are contradicted by... |
d874d981-7d80-44fb-9062-b00eed215e5b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | my favourite Scott Sumner blog posts
Given Scott's invitation to LessOnline and general embrace of this community, I thought many here would appreciate this curated list of my favourite Scott Sumner blog posts.
-
Scott Sumner is best known as an economist who was praised for positively influencing economic policy du... |
b5bfab0f-f72a-431e-8724-b6f3748bdd1d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Why might a superintelligent AI be dangerous?
One common objection to a superintelligence [potentially being dangerous](/?state=6209&question=Why%20should%20I%20worry%20about%20superintelligence%3F) goes: yes, a [superintelligent AI](/?state=6207&question=What%20is%20%22superintelligence%22%3F) might be far smarter th... |
01541d77-045b-4e42-9fd7-c49dcb70fc96 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Imagination and Suffering
Time: 22:56:47
I
This is going to be an exercise in speed writing a LW post.
Not writing posts at all seems to be worse than writing poorly edited posts.
It is currently hard for me to do anything that even resembles actual speed writing: even as I type this sentence, I have a ve... |
0c8c7e67-5764-4680-afe5-e50d63ca19b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where to be an AI Safety Professor
Stephen Casper, scasper@mit.edu
TL;DR: being a professor in AI safety seems cool. It might be tractable and high impact to be one at a university that has lots of money, smart people, and math talent but an underperforming CS department – especially if that university is actively ... |
663429b9-672f-4474-a732-9ed7eee64038 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Irvine Meetup Wednesday July 6
Discussion article for the meetup : Irvine Meetup Wednesday July 6
WHEN: 06 July 2011 06:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 4187 Campus Dr, University Center, Irvine, CA 92612
This continues the weekly meetups in Irvine. As always the meetup at the outdoor food court in the University Ce... |
9e091022-680a-46d6-a854-51076c5dff01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Broken Latents: Studying SAEs and Feature Co-occurrence in Toy Models
Thanks to Jean Kaddour, Tomáš Dulka, and Joseph Bloom for providing feedback on earlier drafts of this post.
In a previous post on Toy Models of Feature Absorption, we showed that tied SAEs seem to solve feature absorption. However, when we tried t... |
5cbd4da6-b412-4d04-aa79-e7e6136f241a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Baltimore Area / UMBC Weekly Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore Area / UMBC Weekly Meetup
WHEN: 23 October 2016 08:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Performing Arts and Humanities Bldg Room 456, 1000 Hilltop Cir, Baltimore, MD 21250
Meeting is on 4th floor of the Performing Arts and Humanities Build... |
42935bb1-c64c-43e4-8848-6ca1a3a7f91a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nonstandard analysis in ethics
INFINITE ETHICS
(2011) Nick Bostrom Future of Humanity Institute Faculty of Philosophy & Oxford Martin School Oxford University [Analysis and Metaphysics, Vol. 10 (2011): pp. 9-59] [pdf] [This is the final version. (Earlier versions published as electronic preprints: 2003, 2005, 2008, ... |
9b5c1a92-3eb1-4f7c-8c21-ebba4eb49eb7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How useful is mechanistic interpretability?
Opening positions
ryan_greenblatt
I'm somewhat skeptical about mech interp (bottom-up or substantial reverse engineering style interp):
* Current work seems very far from being useful (it isn't currently useful) or explaining much what's going on inside of models in key ca... |
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