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dcc36c51-309f-4496-a7b4-c31fd2952dd6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Stuart Armstrong Predicting AI... or failing to - Winter Intelligence - FHI Oxford
Thank You people the top does exactly
what it says in the title it has a look
at how we're predicting AGI and its
conclusion is that we need to increase
uncertainty spread those error bars and
add caveats to our predictions now one
hin... |
e9cf3672-96e6-4ab7-ac10-06478cb6ef46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [stub] Soliciting help for experimental design
TL;DR: I ask for help, either entirely theoretical or more concrete, with design of a quick-and dirty independent survey. In particular, I need to know how to estimate the sample size, number of questions and some other things. I expect to see an effect, but 1) a small on... |
c09d15f9-3e84-444f-a490-79e65dbb4fcb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Which of these five AI alignment research projects ideas are no good?
I'll post five AI alignment research project ideas as comments. It would be
great if you could approval-vote on them by using upvotes. Ie. when you think
the project idea isn't good, you leave the comment as is; otherwise you give it
a single upvote... |
61ffa0aa-76c2-465f-9eab-6bce15d3537a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Replacement for PONR concept
*Writing this in my personal capacity, as a follow up to my*[*previous post*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/JPan54R525D68NoEt/the-date-of-ai-takeover-is-not-the-day-the-ai-takes-over) *on this topic.*
I am now contemplating replacing the ["Point of No Return"](https://www.alignment... |
3853c81f-ac9f-4a76-9d8d-e1115d0fc1a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LLMs May Find It Hard to FOOM
Epistemic status: some of the technological progress parts of this I've been thinking about for many years, other more LLM-specific parts I have been thinking about for months or days.
TL;DR An extremely high capacity LLM trained on extremely large amounts content from humans will simula... |
bcd5063b-be23-4f73-81fe-49f5afebb6c0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | General purpose intelligence: arguing the Orthogonality thesis
Note: *informally, the point of this paper is to argue against the instinctive "if the AI were so smart, it would figure out the right morality and everything will be fine." It is targeted mainly at philosophers, not at AI programmers. The paper succeeds i... |
2b2ccc4e-ec1f-43dd-8364-e5e54c9403fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes: February 2010
A monthly thread for posting rationality-related quotes you've seen recently (or had stored in your quotesfile for ages).
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly order... |
dccde300-3cb0-4f15-8333-272816fafc6c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI "Deep Research" Tools Reviewed
Midjourney: “an artificially intelligent researcher, library, posthuman archivist, mapping the noosphere”
As regular readers are aware, I do a lot of informal lit review. So I was especially interested in checking out the various AI based “deep research” tools and seeing how they c... |
da2cf9a1-e5f5-4c15-9b9a-dd237d4ee687 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Circuits in Superposition: Compressing many small neural networks into one
Tl;dr: We generalize the mathematical framework for computation in superposition from compressing many boolean logic gates into a neural network, to compressing many small neural networks into a larger neural network. The number of small networ... |
d0f2bded-3ebe-4245-a0e5-2979c0b66e59 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Mastering Complex Control in MOBA Games with Deep Reinforcement Learning
Introduction
------------
Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has been widely used for building agents to learn complex control in competitive environments.
In the competitive setting, a considerable amount of existing DRL research adopt two-age... |
49404d42-b65e-4500-8520-ebf1279bef94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the concept of "talent-constrained" organizations
Some people have claimed that organizations are often talent-constrained. In other words, they're not short on money, but they're not able to find talented people. Specifically, some people, such as biomedical researcher John Todd, have claimed they'd turn down larg... |
b7a9425b-c2cb-4433-b922-0ee5b6c72b11 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | OpenAI: Our approach to AI safety
I appreciate the post and it has some interesting points.
> We work hard to prevent foreseeable risks before deployment, however, there is a limit to what we can learn in a lab. Despite extensive research and testing, we cannot predict all of the beneficial ways people will use our t... |
57a391c4-7415-4129-87ed-f94a5ad5470e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learn A New Language!
The following protocol is very dumb, and relies on a lot of mental brute force, but I find that it works very well indeed.
First, learn the alphabet. the most basic survival phrases, the phonetics, the basic grammar. This may be the steepest part of the learning curve. I recommend that you get a... |
59210db7-5b41-4769-803c-13a21a985e38 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Neartermists should consider AGI timelines in their spending decisions
Summary
-------
Neartermist[[1]](#fnz9lfyumgwe).mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spac... |
d8048ae8-a104-47aa-bdfc-d58bc1c46b1a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fighting Obvious Nonsense About AI Diffusion
Our government is determined to lose the AI race in the name of winning the AI race.
The least we can do, if prioritizing winning the race, is to try and actually win it.
It is one thing to prioritize ‘winning the AI race’ against China over ensuring that humanity survive... |
be4ced26-faca-4780-8e22-ce77d8ef1ab5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How unusual is the fact that there is no AI monopoly?
I may be completely confused about this, but my model of technological breakthroughs in history was basically this: A few guys independently connect the dots leading to a new invention, for example the telephone, approximately at the same time. One of them runs to ... |
5b0af5ad-1a5d-496b-bd67-dd29f5f18d02 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | 2-D Robustness
*This is a short note on a framing that was developed in collaboration with Joar Skalse, Chris van Merwijk and Evan Hubinger while working on [Risks from Learned Optimization](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820), but which did not find a natural place in the report.*
---
Mesa-optimisation is a kind of... |
b84230d0-67fe-45c9-bf01-7c9e3dd569a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should we abstain from voting? (In nondeterministic elections)
Polluting the polls
Philosopher Jason Brennan argues in his paper “Polluting The Polls: When Citizens Should Not Vote” that most people should abstain from voting. The argument boils down to the view that most people are not informed enough to vote well, a... |
8a3a3310-3c60-48f6-8d39-abfb5525529b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do we quantify non-philanthropic contributions from Buffet and Soros?
I can't find the videos where they said this, but I remember Buffet and Soros rationalizing their choice of profession by saying that they make market prices more informative. Is there a way to quantify that? What units would we use? Could we sa... |
4efc8c7e-4d75-460e-bc97-a7ada58146b3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Contra shard theory, in the context of the diamond maximizer problem
A bunch of my response to shard theory is a generalization of how [niceness is unnatural](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/krHDNc7cDvfEL8z9a/niceness-is-unnatural). In a similar fashion, the other “shards” that the shard theory folk want to learn are ... |
1c5c5be7-df14-428a-8c4a-96012bff214a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Probability Theory Fundamentals 102: Source of the Sample Space
The usual explanation of probability theory goes like this:
There is this thing called Probability Space, which consists of three other things:
1. Sample Space - some non-empty set
2. Event Space - a set of subsets of the Sample Space
3. Probability ... |
27a809be-c50a-4cb2-8012-6c1d82b33667 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A simpler way to think about positive test bias
Eliezer described "positive bias" (which I'll rename "positive test bias" for reasons explained in Unnamed's comment below) in an LW post and an HPMOR chapter. According to him, dealing with that bias requires a kind of mental gymnastics that doesn't come naturally to mo... |
5cfce989-b40a-4405-98ca-a643bd39f7fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sequences Reading Group
Discussion article for the meetup : Sequences Reading Group
WHEN: 23 February 2017 07:15:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Berlin
We meet about monthly to read the sequences posts. We focus on extracting insights from the LessWrong sequences and applying them to improve our rationality.
We read ... |
b65d9b1a-d0d8-4659-a8f9-68e12ebb7442 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Nuclear Energy Alignment Problem
Berlin, 1938.
"Have you ever thought about the Anthropic principle? Chances are about half the people who have ever lived will die before us and half after. The human population has been growing at an exponential rate. There is probably a disaster waiting just around the corner," ... |
455e4ac1-defe-444b-b3c8-6fee286f3b74 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dating in 2023 sucks. Why isn't AI helping?
So here's what I'm thinking.
I would argue that main bottleneck for people having an abundance of good potential partners is usually not their character or personality. Which sure can be improved, but it's not the main obstacle.
I believe the main issue is the bad matchmak... |
4825af91-4ae0-4dbf-aa7c-6398a811dbe7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Epistemology vs Critical Thinking
Short vocabulary points :
* By epistemy, I refer to to the second meaning of epistemology in the wiktionary (ie, a particular theory of knowledge). Polysemy is bad and should be fixed when possible.
* By episteme, I mean the knowledge and understanding of a given science at a given... |
ef2b7c0a-0646-46bc-a241-913170870f11 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | FLI podcast series, "Imagine A World", about aspirational futures with AGI
Last year, the Future of Life Institute organized the "AI Worldbuilding Contest", where they challenged competitors to envision a future where humanity has safely navigated the development of artificial general intelligence, avoiding major wars... |
c1deebed-764a-43b3-9e87-562caebc3e18 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Austin, TX - Schelling Day
Discussion article for the meetup : Austin, TX - Schelling Day
WHEN: 18 April 2015 06:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 4212 Hookbilled Kite Drive
We're celebrating Schelling Day, the day for getting to know people in your community. It'll be a potluck followed by a bunch of sharing (starti... |
abecc45d-7d68-402e-aa5a-9e7a7283162f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Test meetup please ignore
Discussion article for the meetup : Test meetup please ignore
WHEN: 27 March 2017 11:18:40AM (-0700)
WHERE: antartica
sorry
Discussion article for the meetup : Test meetup please ignore |
b1abc779-7c5f-467c-845d-721bce5eae45 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GPT-X, Paperclip Maximizer? Analyzing AGI and Final Goals
Epistemic status: Low confidence, feel I may be missing something important about how to "put goals into" intelligent systems.
In the artificial intelligence literature, it’s common to see researchers examining the question of “what is the right final goal to ... |
04907700-c368-4668-aabe-26ca34748d6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Three more stories about causation
I
Imagine Bob's graph of health over time is sin(t) and his graph of exercise is cos(t), with negative values corresponding to being a couch potato. At first glance, health and exercise have nothing to do with each other, since their correlation is zero. At second glance, maybe exer... |
8d2b794e-13d9-45fe-b293-8d248035dd3f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paper on qualitative types or degrees of knowledge, with examples from medicine?
There's a paper (or essay or something similar) I can remember reading that I've been struggling to find for some time now. It described different qualitative types of knowledge and used various examples from medicine, e.g. the difference... |
eec16d88-00e4-4929-919f-e60aa6924a83 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Rationality and Mental Illness in the Huffington Post
Just published an article in the The Huffington Post about using rationality-informed strategies to manage my mental illness. Hope this helps people think more rationally about this topic. |
66c93e1e-2c35-4221-93ae-0b97f35002b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Solomonoff Prior is Malign
This argument came to my attention from this post by Paul Christiano. I also found this clarification helpful. I found these counter-arguments stimulating and have included some discussion of them.
Very little of this content is original. My contributions consist of fleshing out argumen... |
789e6a8d-0685-4863-8144-963c6776eda9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GPT-4
> We’ve created GPT-4, the latest milestone in OpenAI’s effort in scaling up deep learning. GPT-4 is a large multimodal model (accepting image and text inputs, emitting text outputs) that, while worse than humans in many real-world scenarios, exhibits human-level performance on various professional and academic ... |
baa2a872-f8b0-4a1b-9d7b-394a74afb575 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mundane Magic
As you may recall from some months earlier, I think that part of the rationalist ethos is binding yourself emotionally to an absolutely lawful reductionistic universe—a universe containing no ontologically basic mental things such as souls or magic—and pouring all your hope and all your care into that me... |
c941bb2e-866a-4884-b576-80d0eac1af71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Regular Lesswronger's interviews
As was commented by Clarity:
> Perhaps someone can do a interview to differentiate his mind and rationality from others. For instance, his motivation for different posts or blog posts- or to what extent he consciously optimises his optimisation processes. Gwern, if you feel this is in... |
4e821d6e-e236-4ba3-83f2-10cb5f971b74 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Proveably Safe Self Driving Cars [Modulo Assumptions]
I’ve seen a fair amount of skepticism about the “Provably Safe AI” paradigm, but I think detractors give it too little credit. I suspect this is largely because of idea inoculation - people have heard an undeveloped or weak man version of the idea, for example, tha... |
f735300c-f441-4459-871c-344d0b43b672 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why You Should Never Update Your Beliefs
Epistemic status: Invincible
> Since Cavalry scouts are often in direct contact with the enemy, their job can be considered one of the most dangerous jobs the Army has to offer.
>
> — something called “Operation Military Kids”
There’s some irony that Julia Galef’s rationalist... |
4af6ea15-3e1d-460f-aabc-0fd8c39d7170 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [statistics] An introduction to maximum likelihood estimationl: what?, why?, when?, how?
First we require a short introduction to Bayesian statistics.
What.
Because describing a multidimensional distribution is often difficult, it is useful to have crude tools for doing this. Maximum likelihood estimation is one s... |
6e60dac9-1bd4-4e3d-b47d-497f0d0b2ee5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vipassana Meditation and Active Inference: A Framework for Understanding Suffering and its Cessation
I want to thank Jan Kulveit, Tomáš Gavenčiak, and Jonathan Shock for their extensive feedback and ideas they contributed to this work and for Josh Burgener and Yusuf Heylen for their proofreading and comments. I would ... |
41047635-0400-4ffb-8457-5894b6a6469a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Techniques to consciously activate a rationalist self-image
When I do mindless or routine tasks for a while, activities I don't need much conscious thought for, I go back to older and simpler cognitions. It takes me a little effort to, for example, notice I'm confused, and then remember the methods of rationality. Tha... |
e8875c61-80be-4b03-9bf4-1d262b65f516 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anyone have any questions for David Chalmers?
I'm doing an undergraduate course on the Free Will Theorem, with three lecturers: a mathematician, a physicist, and David Chalmers as the philosopher. The course is a bit pointless, but the company is brilliant. Chalmers is a pretty smart guy. He studied computer science a... |
7f3a739f-1908-48d0-b0b3-554730875ee4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Unconference
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Unconference
WHEN: 19 January 2015 06:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 219 6th st. , San Francisco, CA
THE LOCATION MAY HAVE CHANGED SINCE YOU LAST LOOKED AT THIS POST!
We'll be having an unconference! People will have the ... |
6e5a8923-6a98-4a9d-b335-45a9b2bede55 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [Linkpost] Introducing Superalignment
Some quotes:
> **Our approach**
> ----------------
>
> Our goal is to build a roughly human-level [automated alignment researcher](https://openai.com/blog/our-approach-to-alignment-research). We can then use vast amounts of compute to scale our efforts, and iteratively align su... |
665e776e-0285-4381-acaf-749a09b9a503 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Teaching in Prison
Note: this is a post I wrote in 2018, so some of the numbers may be out of date. I've also changed my mind on lots of things since 2018, and there are many parts that I would write differently. Until now, the post was only accessible from the Wayback Machine; I'm sharing it here with some l... |
fcb22112-eab9-43a5-bc5d-44bf8e132c10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Feature Idea] Epistemic Status
Epistemic Status: My best guess (but, epistemic effort was "talked to like 2-3 people about it and it felt good to each of us")
I've been thinking about a number of issues relating to "what are the standards supposed to be on LessWrong, anyway?", with an understanding that there are di... |
410db9bf-3560-47ba-ba90-40cfdfee9b0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decelerating: laser vs gun vs rocket
In our paper on exploring the universe, some of our probes required huge quantities of reaction mass in order to decelerate on arrival.
This is due to the tyranny of the rocket equation: to decelerate our final mass mf by Δv, we need an initial mass m0 so that:
* Δv=veln(m0mf), ... |
5308035e-1dd4-4d0c-9946-18175202e839 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What work of fiction explore increased transparency in the world?
None |
3d8bfd2d-b767-404f-b8ad-87b617035b3b | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post501
YouTube link Top labs use various forms of “safety training” on models before their release to make sure they don’t do nasty stuff - but how robust is that? How can we ensure that the weights of powerful AIs don’t get leaked or stolen? And what can AI even do these days? In this episode, I speak with Jeffr... |
20b99865-f500-45c0-8e03-943e7ecaa201 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | TAISU 2019 Field Report
Last summer I delivered a "field report" after attending the Human Level AI multi-conference. In mid-August of this year I attended the Learning-by-doing AI Safety Workshop (LBDAISW? I'll just call it "the workshop" hereafter) and the Technical AI Safety Unconference (TAISU) at the EA Hotel in ... |
652d663d-214c-419a-b3ad-85934b957467 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Evidential Decision Theory presumptuous?
I recently had a conversation with a staunch defender of EDT who maintained that EDT gives the right answer in the Smoker’s Lesion and even Evidential Blackmail. I came up with the following, even more counterintuitive, thought experiment:
--
By doing research, you'v... |
ea5ce009-d16f-4c43-b255-085de764d522 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Counterfactual Mugging
**Related to**: [Can Counterfactuals Be True?](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/counterfactual.html), [Newcomb's Problem and Regret of Rationality](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/newcombs-proble.html).
Imagine that one day, [Omega](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/01/newcombs-pro... |
3e43aeb9-6b7d-4af9-a7c0-d3af45b31c07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quantifying Liberty
I'm trying to apply some LessWrong lessons to certain aspects of politics, in order to encourage some people to adopt LW techniques. Yes, I know it's the mind-killer, but it still consists of problems to try to solve... and one of the core difficulties is that for this particular audience, their ma... |
068bcaa1-219b-4a53-aedb-93c7439b4965 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weak Evidence is Common
Epistemic status: parody well-intentioned with known mistakes (see comments), more confident about clarification at the end
Followup to: Strong Evidence is Common
One time, someone asked me if I was evil. I said "no". Afterward, they probably didn't believe I wasn't evil. I'm guessing they wo... |
51fe5b8c-04a5-43e9-b791-e5f8e8a7581b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decision theory: Why Pearl helps reduce “could” and “would”, but still leaves us with at least three alternatives
(This is the third post in a planned sequence.)
My last post left us with the questions:
* Just what are humans, and other common CSAs, calculating when we imagine what “would” happen “if” we took actio... |
cca7f1af-0b49-41db-85e8-ff1f9e4bb01c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Investing in Robust Safety Mechanisms is critical for reducing Systemic Risks
This short paper was written quickly, within a single day, and is not highly detailed or fully developed. We welcome any feedback or suggestions you may have to improve or expand upon the ideas presented.
ABSTRACT
In this position paper, w... |
20fbf306-c6dc-48d2-9cb9-2753e84fd5cc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Hacking the brain: dimensions of cognitive enhancement
Hacking the Brain: Dimensions of Cognitive Enhancement
Martin Dresler, *,†Anders Sandberg,‡Christoph Bublitz,§Kathrin Ohla,∥Carlos Trenado,⊥,#
Aleksandra Mroczko-W ąsowicz,∇Simone Ku ̈hn,○,◆and Dimitris Repantis¶
†Donders Institute for Brain, Cognition and Behavio... |
70e8a048-0d23-49de-9eb5-16f3519eca80 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ChatGPT’s Ontological Landscape
This is cross-posted from New Savanna.
I've published a new working paper. Title above, links, abstract, table of contents, and introduction below:
Academia.edu: https://www.academia.edu/108791178/ChatGPTs_Ontological_Landscape_A_Working_Paper
SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4620133
... |
916f370e-a32d-4023-aa99-5797db0cb692 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Assessing our past and potential impact
We’ve received several thoughtful questions in response to our [fundraising post to the Effective Altruism Forum](http://effective-altruism.com/ea/ln/2015_miri_summer_fundraiser_how_we_could_scale/) and our new [FAQ](http://intelligence.org/faq). From quant trader Maxwell Fritz:... |
330f388d-4183-450f-afbd-2116702f4487 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2022 Survey Results
The Data
0. Population
There were 186 respondents over 28 days. The first week of the survey got 172 responses. The second week got 10. The third and fourth weeks got 2 responses each.
Previous surveys have been run over the past decade or so. Their numbers are as follows:
2009: 166
2011: 109... |
bcae3c79-308b-4cc2-b4b6-d6d557fdea43 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Doomers Should try Much Harder to get Famous
For the purpose of this post, “getting famous” means “building a large, general (primarily online) audience of people who agree with/support you”.
If you believe that slowing down or pausing AI development is a good idea, and you believe this should be official policy, ... |
c48ead67-1cb8-4f70-942d-29344cde2388 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Additional space complexity isn't always a useful metric
I've been subscribed to Interview Cake for years, and today they had a really interesting question: Given a list of n + 1 integers in the range 1...n, find one of the duplicates (there is guaranteed to be at least one) in O(n) time and O(1) additional space. Th... |
65c9d139-98f5-4f5f-a181-df44a95121e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ukraine update 06/03/2022
Power plant shelling
On March 4th Putin's troops shelled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar city. Zaporizhzhia NPP in the largest nuclear plant in Europe, providing 25% of Ukraine's electricity. A training building close to one of the plant’s reactor units caught fire from the she... |
2061d0d6-f768-42c7-a608-e8e175d3a370 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 23, chapter 94
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 94. The previous thread has passed 200 comments.
There is now ... |
2a716bcf-bca4-49b8-8f15-1e1950b36702 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Internalizing Existentialism
NB: Originally published on Map and Territory on Medium. This is an old post originally published on 2016-09-18. It was never previously cross-posted or linked on LessWrong, so I'm adding it now for posterity. It's old enough that I can no longer confidently endorse it, and I won't bother ... |
b1cdc807-e6a8-44e0-82cf-3d8d7959397f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's In A Name?
Marge: You changed your name without consulting me?
Homer: That's the way Max Power is, Marge. Decisive.
--The Simpsons
In honor of Will Powers and his theories about self-control, today I would like to talk about my favorite bias ever, the name letter effect. The name letter effect doe... |
f701aa9b-4eb1-4926-9e55-365381338624 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Hacking the CEV for Fun and Profit
It’s the year 2045, and Dr. Evil and the Singularity Institute have been in a long and grueling race to be the first to achieve machine intelligence, thereby controlling the course of the Singularity and the fate of the universe. Unfortunately for Dr. Evil, SIAI is ahead in the game.... |
bcfa7ed5-c7f0-480e-8d96-a39ed0fbfe60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the most effective way to donate to AGI XRisk mitigation?
There are now many organizations in field of Existential Risk from Artificial General Intelligence. I wonder which can make the most effective use of small donations.
My priority is on mathematical or engineering research aimed at XRisk from superhuman... |
9ca2f745-f3b2-4bd0-80c1-0150930e5130 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book reviews
I'd like to see book reviews of books of interest to LW. Some suggestions:
* Dan Ariely (2010). The Upside of Irrationality: The unexpected benefits of defying logic at work and at home.
* Sam Harris (2010). The Moral Landscape: How science can determine human values.
* Dan Ariely (2009). Predicta... |
a139b815-9439-41cf-aa9e-ec5376fcbd05 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interview with Christine M. Korsgaard: Animal Ethics, Kantianism, Utilitarianism
Christine M. Korsgaard was kind enough to answer a few questions of mine. Here's an excerpt:
> ERICH: Many animal welfare advocates seem to be utilitarians, possibly due to the influence of Peter Singer. But you, of course, are not a uti... |
6968675c-f2d2-4073-9220-b77705db44b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 6 non-obvious mental health issues specific to AI safety
Intro
I am a psychotherapist, and I help people working on AI safety. I noticed patterns of mental health issues highly specific to this group. It's not just doomerism, there are way more of them that are less obvious.
If you struggle with a mental health iss... |
43ef4b38-2f84-42cb-8b5c-b081940537cc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Complex number
A complex number is a number of the form $z = a + b\textrm{i}$, where $\textrm{i}$ is the imaginary unit defined as $\textrm{i}=\sqrt{-1}$.
Doesn't make sense? Let's backtrack a little.
## Motivation - expanding the definition of numbers##
Say we start with a child's understanding of numbers as counti... |
9b61ead6-6c1a-4fba-a07e-39424143811b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Have you actually tried raising the birth rate?
I just saw on twitter someone claiming that we "don't know how to raise the birth rate". No need to link them, it's a fairly common sentiment.
Have you actually tried raising the birth rate? For real, as in actually put in any effort?
Let's run the numbers on the stupi... |
92141aeb-13d6-4474-ab3d-6a37c6f68b11 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Do People Think Humans Are Stupid?
Introduction
On more than one occasion, I've seen the following comparisons used to describe how a superintelligence might relate to/perceive humans:
* Humans to ants
* Humans to earthworms
* And similar
More generally, people seem to believe that humans are incredibly far f... |
89be1e72-cd0e-4726-a9b9-5c47b084d9b2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | All GPT skills are translation
After having my mind blown by the GPT-2 codes python demo, I realized that all „skills“ that GPT-2 and especially GPT-3 possess fall into a certain category.
Autoregressive language models like the GPT models can write text by recursively predicting the next token. The exciting develop... |
74286a59-db2d-4ec0-8d47-b180c6d09630 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Greatest Philosopher in History
Since LessWrong is a major congregation point for certain philosophical ideas, and because people here tend to be more objective (in the sense of not being self-deluded) than elsewhere, I thought I'd ask people's views.
To be clear, by "Greatest Philosopher" I am referring not to the m... |
2400e4af-f886-47b4-b6cc-ac507c198f83 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Austin, TX
Discussion article for the meetup : Austin, TX
WHEN: 03 September 2011 01:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 2222B Guadalupe St Austin, Texas 78705
Once again, we're meeting at Caffe Medici at 1:30 PM. I've looked into making a UT student organization and we only need 3 current UT students, and I believe we... |
9371249e-41c1-498e-8917-8423d9212172 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On avoiding evidence
I often look away when I order food from a place where I can see it being prepared, because I expect to see things that will make me doubt my safety dining there. Similarly I prefer to sleep when I am sick, watch loud tv while on airplanes, and buy foods and drinks rather than make them myself whe... |
142b52fc-8c84-4f44-87cb-37d7cc0c1210 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On immortality
Edit: Hello again. After a fair bit of discussion with some of you, I can say with great relief my belief in an infinite universe with infinite minds in it has gone down. Now, that is not to say that I think that it won't rear its ugly head once more, but it seems to have been beaten back for a while. I... |
fe2788d5-fd76-4844-937e-1fb031133eb7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Dreams of Friendliness
Today's post, Dreams of Friendliness was originally published on 31 August 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Why programming an AI that only answers questions is not a trivial problem, for many of the same reasons that programming an FAI isn't trivial.
Discuss the pos... |
10c5e9cc-8427-4cf1-bbe0-0a14afa84019 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Teachers vs. Tutors
It's an anecdotal commonplace that rich parents in places like Manhattan are willing to shell out a colossal amount for their children's tutors. Most recently I heard about a math PhD student at an elite university who's getting $500 an hour to tutor high school kids.
Now this makes me wonder: wh... |
0bbb14f2-7fe0-4cc4-ae35-1c8c5718e1c2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Why we need an AI-resilient society
1 Introduction
---------------
In 1962, Martin Gardner described how to build a game-learning machine, and how to teach it to play and win (Gardner, [1962](#bib.bib1)).
Gardner described *hexapawn*, a simplified chess computer, which can be build
with 24 matchboxes. These boxes a... |
fe079b90-16dc-4168-8966-2e4f2aa77661 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Isomorphism
A pair of mathematical structures are **isomorphic** to each other if they are "essentially the same", even if they aren't necessarily equal.
An **isomorphism** is a [https://arbital.com/p/-4d8](https://arbital.com/p/-4d8) between isomorphic structures which translates one to the other in a way that pres... |
b38f0d0f-5537-409d-8fd7-89b2053dbca4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 10/8: October Surprise
Last week: Covid 10/1: The Long Haul
As part of 2020’s continuing attempt to top itself, President Trump has Covid-19.
It is unclear whether it is more surprising that Trump got Covid-19 now, or that it took this long for him to become infected. It has become very clear that this has be... |
7746c717-e1a5-4c85-92cc-1d9f13f88a0a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Immortality Ethical?
Summary: At a steady state of population, extended lifespan means taking resources away from other potential people. Technology for extended life may not be ethical in this case. Because we are not in steady state, this does not argue against working on life extension technology today.
Many pe... |
35babef9-d9cc-489f-8722-099f998a50e2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | The Peerless
The Peerless
------------
In this post, I propose a plan for addressing superintelligence-based risks.
Before I say anything, I will mention a crucial point that a *bunch* of people have ignored despite it being addressed at the bottom of this post: the idea I describe here is very unlikely to work. I... |
4b8dcff5-657f-4afa-a8c7-f6055d5f94dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Casablanca Rationalists [Edit With Your Details]
(The following are our suggestions for what kind of information is best to include in the welcome post of your group, feel free to replace them with whatever you think is best)
What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do?
How fr... |
bf38677d-7c81-4631-8ba0-37184d75e2dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How does one learn to create models?
I searched, but despite the term showing up frequently there doesn't seem to be obvious practical instruction on how to do it. Or did I overlook it?
https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/world-modeling-techniques |
a5951b7e-25c8-4259-a810-74841fc43418 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Measuring Progress on Scalable Oversight for Large Language Models
1 Introduction
---------------
To build and deploy powerful AI responsibly, we will need to develop robust techniques for scalable oversight: the ability to provide reliable supervision—in the form of labels, reward signals, or critiques—to models i... |
81b7b52c-1d71-4dcf-afc3-db183a457607 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | OpenAI defected, but we can take honest actions
OpenAI defected. As a non-profit, OpenAI recruited researchers on the promise of "safe" AGI. Then it pushed out the safety researchers and turned into a for-profit.
Why act in response?
* OpenAI is recklessly scaling AI. Besides accelerating "progress" toward mass ext... |
3b5d5a97-6860-4cba-9432-779309965030 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scanless Whole Brain Emulation
Warning: this is very speculative and I have no expertise.
If we can build superintelligence by starting with simulated humans, it should be safer.
Scanless Whole Brain Emulation attempts to simulate the development of the nervous system from the very start, thus not requiring a brain ... |
80cf7978-707d-45eb-b08e-dcabc10f3598 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | March 2015 newsletter
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[Machine Intelligence Research Institute](http://intelligence.org)
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**Research updates**
* We’ve made significant updates to three pages: [Research](https://intelligence.org/research/), [All Publications... |
d022fd8b-5f18-4b3c-b39e-4a858156ff21 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Holden Karnofsky's Singularity Institute critique: other objections
The sheer length of GiveWell co-founder and co-executive director Holden Karnofsky's excellent critique of the Singularity Institute means that it's hard to keep track of the resulting discussion. I propose to break out each of his objections into a ... |
e3b32cc9-4eeb-4ccf-957f-ae315f4e8f8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Designing agent incentives to avoid side effects
This is a new post on the DeepMind Safety Research blog that summarizes the latest work on impact measures presented by the relative reachability paper (version 2) and the attainable utility preservation paper. The post examines the effects of various design choices on ... |
3c9ab2b6-8788-4e35-a8d0-0aca079b73ab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality & Low-IQ People
This post is to raise a question about the demographics of rationality: Is rationality something that can appeal to low-IQ people as well?
I don't mean in theory, I mean in practice. From what I've seen, people who are concerned about rationality (in the sense that it has on LW, Overcoming... |
bd4c3fa4-63ed-4e02-b475-f27b3d60fb03 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Don't Get Mad, Get Curious"
Crossposted from https://e-m-morningstar.dreamwidth.org/1066.html
When I was a kid, my mother once found me in the kitchen, swearing at the dishwasher and shoving its filter around. She had me step aside and showed me a better way of finding out what was wrong with the filter: looking for... |
703e5eb8-c74a-4db6-9416-87343907f1a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Andrew Huberman on How to Optimize Sleep
Edit: I am not as confident anymore as I have been in Andrew Huberman's general epistemics, so take this post with a grain of salt.
Introduction
In this post, I list all the advice from Andrew Huberman's podcast Sleep Toolkit: Tools for Optimizing Sleep & sleep and Sleep-Wak... |
2d44a0b2-c1a2-49d0-adfa-181343a2b076 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | How well will policy-makers handle AGI? (initial findings)
MIRI’s [mission](http://intelligence.org/about/) is “to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact.”
One policy-relevant question is: **How well should we expect policy makers to handle the invention of AGI, and what do... |
5c33d212-0aa3-44b9-af8d-0415c8eabaec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pound of Feathers, Pound of Gold
Which weighs more: a pound of feathers, or a pound of gold?
Close consideration of this riddle - and the conditions under which people tend to get it wrong - is helpful in understanding the limits of human rationality. It is a specific example which leads us to general principles of... |
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