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2e3bb871-64c4-48fe-9c7b-e397f3dd607a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Tradeoff between desirable properties for baseline choices in impact measures
*(Cross-posted to* [*personal blog*](https://vkrakovna.wordpress.com/2020/07/05/tradeoff-between-desirable-properties-for-baseline-choices-in-impact-measures/)*. Summarized in* [*Alignment Newsletter #108*](https://mailchi.mp/05518aad6baf/an... |
36d6f76a-d498-443d-89a7-51d8d1d3518f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I Think We're Approaching The Bitter Lesson's Asymptote
I think we're close to hitting points where improvement in ai in general scenarios will get more and more difficult to achieve over time, and from here on out, each gain in capability will cost exponentially more. I think the concrete evidence I'm using for the c... |
6c689fc7-87d2-4991-ba0d-b97b6c4d544d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Why the Orthogonality Thesis's veracity is not the point:
***2022 edit: this was my first post (as a newcomer to EA/AI Safety), and I recommend strongly to read*** [***this better framed post***](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/kCAcrjvXDt2evMpBz/?commentId=RADriLeBHqXhNDhN4) ***of my old point, rather than t... |
0ad492b3-9589-4215-a0e8-c0cea3b20599 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What fraction of work time in the world is done at a computer?
I'd also be interested in the historical data.
x-post: https://www.quora.com/unanswered/What-fraction-of-work-time-in-the-world-is-done-at-a-computer |
19d65f6e-b2e1-4644-818b-2c539bba8d37 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 7. Iterate the Game: Racing Where?
We started this book with the observation that different players of Civilization value things differently. The game of Civilization emerges from the composition of these valuations. The strategy of voluntary cooperation serves each player a great deal. We should uphold it as new AI ... |
93d9cd42-6fbb-4105-beab-d16717099a1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Human's Role in Mesa Optimization
When it comes to mesa optimization, there’s usually two optimizers mentioned: the “base optimizer”, such as SGD, the process used for training the model. And the “mesa optimizer”, meaning roughly “the optimizer beneath the optimizer”. One key question in this context is when and u... |
48ccfe94-da19-4a08-93a1-e31c4ec7a3ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Sept. 1-7, 2014
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one.
3. Open Threads should be posted in Discussion, and not Ma... |
ff3f6a52-067a-40cc-81d1-be97a1d0629f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Lizard People Of Alpha Draconis 1 Decided To Build An Ansible
I.
The lizard people of Alpha Draconis 1 decided to build an ansible.
The transmitter was a colossal tower of silksteel, doorless and windowless. Inside were millions of modular silksteel cubes, each filled with beetles, a different species in every c... |
04c6db50-f60a-4d13-be1c-b96921badf15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forthcoming and desired articles on AI risk [link]
Continuously updated here. |
f45c329f-5d37-465e-8706-bb86a5ef0382 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Memory bandwidth constraints imply economies of scale in AI inference
Contemporary GPUs often have very imbalanced memory vs arithmetic operation capabilities. For instance, an H100 can do around 3e15 8-bit FLOP/s, but the speed at which information can move between the cores and the GPU memory is only 3 TB/s. As 8 bi... |
a297dd0e-6ec3-4ca2-b09d-09bf38617b66 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Genesis Project
Video Demo: https://x.com/i/status/1869511650782658846 |
b366a30e-272f-4739-b3ec-84969561eca2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The Futility of Emergence
Today's post, The Futility of Emergence was originally published on 26 August 2007. A summary:
> The theory of "emergence" has become very popular, but is just a mysterious answer to a mysterious question. After learning that a property is emergent, you aren't able to make any... |
47e962c0-6e1c-4562-8612-a122818bb9b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] My Childhood Death Spiral
Today's post, My Childhood Death Spiral was originally published on 15 September 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> When Eliezer was a child, he went into a happy death spiral around the concept of intelligence.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to ... |
8799e7b0-f93d-4005-bc2e-368dc8940e63 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are some important insights you would give to a younger version of yourself?
I recently watched an older TED talk on Youtube, and after watching it, realized there was a comment beneath it, written by me, 10 years ago:
This is frustrating. I have all the possibilities to live a great successful life, but I just ... |
813c600b-6423-4e24-ad13-a4decb22dec2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You must on average be improving to not guarantee failure.
I was thinking about what happens when you run independent Bernoulli trials forever, with probability pi of success, but you lose the first time you fail. If all pi are the same, then with probability 1 we will eventually fail[1]. Similarly, if the supremum of... |
df06b3d4-c7fe-43c8-b7c0-f9b10b4857f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups: Madison, NYC, Ohio, Washington DC
This summary was posted to LW Main on July 20th, and has now been moved to discussion.
There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in:
* Washington DC Calibration Games meetup: 22 July 2012 03:00AM
* Madison: Rough Numbers: 22 July 2012 07:00PM
... |
3ae204b1-915a-4f7e-a50a-95552719f56f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should government set interest rates?
One common free-market argument against government control over interest rates goes something like this:
> The Federal Reserve should pull out of the interest rate manipulation business completely. Having a Fed whose main job, at least in the eyes of the public, is to set or move... |
bee890fa-b838-41c2-88dd-bfdf90456b6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | More Than Just A, T, C, and G: Screening for Hidden Dangers in DNA Sequences
More Than Just A, T, C, and G: Screening for Hidden Dangers in DNA Sequences
Introduction
Synthetic biology has revolutionised the way modern biosciences are now done, impacting every field within the subject. By engineering organisms in pr... |
9cd05e8d-1fca-4e6e-8420-95fe39e4a981 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | IReEn: Reverse-Engineering of Black-Box Functions via Iterative Neural Program Synthesis
1 Introduction
---------------
Figure 1: An example of revealing the functionality of a black-box function using only input-output interactions.
Reverse-enginee... |
f037d4fc-d3d1-442f-9357-e4eb8d9bc536 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does anyone have a good system for prioritising publishing drafts?
I've been thinking about ways to optimise the EA Forum to increase the likelihood that ideas go from peoples' heads to being published in some form (relevant). My general idea is like this:
1. Make it an easy default action to start writing out an id... |
2d3f29f8-a254-4313-b902-1cced3e7ba7c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The True Spirit of Solstice?
A year ago at the Winter Solstice afterparty, I had a 5 hour discussion with various folk about what things are or aren't appropriate for Solstice. Some example debates:
* "Is Solstice primarily a rationality holiday? An EA holiday? The broader secular community?"
* "How essential is t... |
f0d32490-b023-4145-ac28-22af06b69c0e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | FHI Winter Intelligence Survey
The Future of Humanity Institute [administered a survey](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/machine-intelligence-survey-2011.pdf) in 2011 at their [Winter Intelligence AGI impacts conference](http://www.winterintelligence.org/oxford2012/agi-impacts/). Participants’ median estimate for a 50% chance ... |
4b6658c7-114c-4587-832a-6a9696c3d296 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Non-personal preferences of never-existed people
Some people see never-existed people as moral agents, and claim that we can talk about their preferences. Generally this means their personal preference in existing versus non-existing. Formulations such "it is better for someone to have existed than not" reflect this w... |
c4163476-5e5c-486c-884b-83f37271b114 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationalist Seder: A Story of War
For whatever reason, the rationality community is inordinately Jewish. Among other things, this resulted in 2011 in people in New York putting together "Rationalist Seder", a reframing of the story of Jewish Liberation From Egypt to reflect upon liberation in general. What does it mea... |
f1b61add-401f-4710-946c-069cb35c32e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Personal Experiment] One Year without Junk Media
I wrote in a previous post how my life is better when I avoid certain kinds of media. It increases my happiness, lowers my stress and makes me smarter.
I should follow my own advice. I hereby commit myself to abstaining from junk media for one year.
There's a long li... |
0f683d51-e397-41ce-b01a-7fa7d0c68436 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | BYOL-Explore: Exploration with Bootstrapped Prediction
Second-person and top-down views of a BYOL-Explore agent solving Thow-Across level of [DM-HARD-8](https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.01387), whereas pure... |
e121396d-c503-44d6-ba80-c5d4de1b4f4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Mystery About High Dimensional Concept Encoding
Epistemic status: I ran some experiments with surprising results, and I don’t have a clear intuition of what it means for the way concepts are encoded in model activations. Help is welcome!
[EDIT] I made a mistake while analyzing the data, and it changes some of the e... |
42c0377e-8717-46e7-8bc6-fabbf111a41e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Rationalist Solstice and Epistemic Caution
Since 2011, some LessWrong folk have observed the winter solstice, as a holiday ritual celebrating human achievement in the face of a confusing, often terrifying world.
I've written in the past about the potential value, and danger, of ritual. Over the past years my opini... |
c02953a1-4fb7-4fc8-8a2f-1fc9f365c5a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Boring machine learning is where it's at
It surprises me that when people think of "software that brings about the singularity" they think of text models, or of RL agents. But they sneer at decision tree boosting and the like as boring algorithms for boring problems.
To me, this seems counter-intuitive, and the fact ... |
7e8dfb8c-ae1b-48a2-a56f-58dca0856ebf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Teaching Simple Boundaries
In general I'm a big advocate of child-proofing. The less they can get hurt with or mess up, the more you can relax, let your guard down, go longer without looking over to see how they're doing, and focus on other things. On the other hand, some things (cords, trash cans) are difficult or in... |
25a498b8-73f6-4560-9948-d77a33da302e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A problem with the most recently published version of CEV
This post outlines a thought experiment, designed to illustrate a problem with the Parliamentarian version of CEV (PCEV). It then shows that the problem is not inherent in the scenario of the thought experiment, by describing a large space of other designs, tha... |
c6de052f-968b-49e5-8154-972ae8d9ad42 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Shortening Timelines: There's No Buffer Anymore
It seems that there are two points of particular relevance in predicting AGI timelines: (i) the expectation, or the point at which the chance of AGI is believed to be 50% and (ii) the last date as of which the chance of AGI is believed to be insignificant.
For purpose... |
72463d98-0043-448e-876b-6a939f06bfac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Instrumental Occam?
In The Real Rules have No Exceptions, Said says (apparently speaking of instrumental rules, not epistemic ones):
> Prefer simplicity in your rules. Be vigilant that your rules do not grow too complex; make sure you are not relaxing the legitimacy criteria of your exceptions. Periodically audit you... |
2f68ab1a-ccf3-4302-a019-e2700ade3dcb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What I talk about when I talk about AI x-risk: 3 core claims I want machine learning researchers to address.
Recently, as PCSOCMLx, I (co-)hosted a session with the goal of explaining, debating, and discussing what I view as "the case for AI x-risk". Specifically, my goal was/is to make the case for the "out-of-contro... |
cb329727-8d05-4111-842e-720cc96a9341 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Federal Judge on Biases in the Criminal Justice System.
A well-known American federal appellate judge, Alex Kozinski, has written a commentary on systemic biases and institutional myths in the criminal justice system.
The basic thrust of his criticism will be familiar to readers of the sequences and rationalists ge... |
71f8a95c-9a2f-4425-aebb-c786a1ce5383 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A world in which the alignment problem seems lower-stakes
The danger from power-seeking is not intrinsic to the alignment problem. This danger also depends on the structure of the agent's environment.
In The Catastrophic Convergence Conjecture, I wrote:
But are there worlds where this isn't true? Consider a world w... |
972085d8-6246-4813-a7d0-4d50d05ce4ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Which Biases are most important to Overcome?
In other words, what apparent imperfections in human reasoning
A) Remain apparent after the Replication Crisis,
B) Aren't secretly adaptive/reasonable in some counterintuitive way, and
C) Deal most damage to the people they inhabit (and/or those close to them, and/or wid... |
03076382-12e5-4f0a-974a-1e98e7338c9c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Introducing the Fund for Alignment Research (We're Hiring!)
*Cross-posted to* [*LessWrong*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hGE3Pcc7qmK75bjhc/introducing-the-fund-for-alignment-research-we-re-hiring)
The [Fund for Alignment Research](https://alignmentfund.org/) (FAR) is hiring research engineers and communication spe... |
8fdd3462-66ae-42e1-9564-7fde24926798 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Web-surfing tips for strange times
[This post is more opinion-heavy and aimlessly self-promoting than feels appropriate for Lesswrong. I wrote it for my site, Eukaryote Writes Blog, to show off that I now have a substack. But it had all these other observations about the state of the internet and advice woven in, and ... |
a01d8103-7b44-4292-b3e3-88d5e3343d0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Theists are wrong; is theism?
Many folk here on LW take the simulation argument (in its more general forms) seriously. Many others take Singularitarianism1 seriously. Still others take Tegmark cosmology (and related big universe hypotheses) seriously. But then I see them proceed to self-describe as atheist (instead of... |
104082fa-9e49-4bc7-9f25-169e5ad4e61a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Good News, Everyone!
As somebody who's been watching AI notkilleveryoneism for a very long time, but is sitting at a bit of a remove from the action, I think I may be able to "see the elephant" better than some people on the inside.
I actually believe I see the big players converging toward something of an unrecogniz... |
7977cc37-a374-478d-9e80-8ee871d8444b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 5/19/22: The Law of Five
If you’re five, you now get a booster. If you’re four, you still get no vaccine at all (while we ‘wait for more data’) and you’re often forced to take precautions that might make sense for senior citizens.
Because no one cares. And that truly continues to be the overall message. No one ... |
dcc63221-42c0-4c8a-92d9-62fba2a7ced8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Indignation in response to the 1890 census
In reading about the development of technology, I keep an eye out for changes in society as well. I commented recently that we don’t seem to celebrate major achievements as much anymore. But it’s not just technology that Americans used to view differently. It’s growth of all ... |
6c41181a-d0aa-4c13-9f86-83fd877c82e3 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I have been asked several times about how the development of logical induction happened, so I am writing it up.
June 2013 - I write my first Less Wrong Post. It may not seem very related to logical uncertainty, but it was in my head. I wanted to know how to take different probabilities for the same event and aggregate... |
b2fa7f28-7e3f-46c6-bcde-dc8b6911892d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Suggesting some revisions to Graham's hierarchy of disagreement
(This is once again me taking what old material from my personal blog and reposting it here with some revisions.)
Graham's hierarchy of disagreement is pretty well known and fairly useful, but I think the upper levels have some issues. (Are the lower lev... |
5e08a507-cca2-4d3c-ac8d-7fe8a68f236a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Table of biases, the normative models they violate, and their explanations
The title says it all: PDF. From Baron's Thinking and Deciding, 4th edition. |
d8831d38-eb05-4d22-8f56-7ed6f82481b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If you’re very optimistic about ELK then you should be optimistic about outer alignment
[The content of this short, nontechnical post is entirely unoriginal – it’s a reframing which I’ve personally found helpful for understanding the thrust of ELK. More specifically, all of the ideas here can be found in the ELK docum... |
036faede-b2d2-4049-8f90-7386a2df37a0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Facilitator Help Wanted for Columbia EA AI Safety Groups
Columbia EA is running two remote 8 week AI Safety groups this summer, one which is a [standard 8 week reading group](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1h857AQT2dZiZ48cfGQEksLFUtnZSdtah2GLoJUnm0c8/edit?usp=sharing) similar to the 8 weeks of the Cambridge curric... |
3556e0c9-65ac-4977-829c-de11ee843e82 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is everyone working on in AI alignment?
See [this page](/?state=9J1L&question=What%20are%20the%20main%20categories%20of%20technical%20alignment%20research%3F) for an overview of four major types of alignment research: agent foundations, prosaic alignment, interpretability, and brain-based AI.
Follow the links be... |
c2bf1c85-8744-451f-a8ed-e819ffe3887a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Madrid - Rationality lecture and activities
Discussion article for the meetup : Madrid - Rationality lecture and activities
WHEN: 21 April 2017 05:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Ciudad Universitaria, Plaza Ciencias, 3, 28040 Madrid
Next Friday, we will give a small lecture about rationality at the mathematics facu... |
97279763-9084-4b8a-a3cb-3472b808f32a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Treating anthropic selfish preferences as an extension of TDT
I
When preferences are selfless, anthropic problems are easily solved by a change of perspective. For example, if we do a Sleeping Beauty experiment for charity, all Sleeping Beauty has to do is follow the strategy that, from the charity's perspective, get... |
8a3c6fe6-58d8-44e5-98c8-4fba978125c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lumenators for very lazy British people
My flat gets very little sunlight. In the British winter, it gets very very little sunlight.
I didn't like this and wanted to fix it. I read Chana's very good post, but was too lazy to do something like that, and also wanted something that took up less space and was less notice... |
8f29e78a-af8c-4a5a-a2d9-4766c3391628 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alibaba Group releases Qwen, 14B parameter LLM
Some highlights from the technical report (github repo here):
Qwen beats every other LLM of a similar size on a wide variety of benchmarks.Qwen's overall benchmark performance is somewhere between Llama 2 and GPT 3.5 |
b2d5fa60-5d7d-491e-b67b-01275e704d47 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Commitment Races problem
*[Epistemic status: Strong claims vaguely stated and weakly held. I expect that writing this and digesting feedback on it will lead to a much better version in the future. EDIT: So far this has stood the test of time. EDIT: As of September 2020 I think this is one of the most important thi... |
97ff5bad-4f22-41d9-92af-a48a81a8932f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Improve Your Sleep
This piece is cross-posted on my blog here.
Do you feel sleepy enough during the day that it impairs your ability to function? Do you fall asleep involuntarily during the day? Do you feel tired enough that you feel weak, have difficulty doing things, or feel unable to focus?
If you answered... |
5f3a780f-51cc-43b6-b4a6-98c2fbf92754 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Interview with Jaan Tallinn on Longevity, Existential Risk & AI | Vision Weekend US 2021
so
um this is yon talan there may be some
people here a few who don't know who yan
talon is that's conceivable i suppose
no seriously there may be and don't feel
bad if you're one of them yep i checked
actually okay there you go r... |
13d4acaf-ffa5-4576-abbf-fdeded82ef50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Celebrating All Who Are in Effective Altruism
Elitism and Effective Altruism
Many criticize Effective Altruists as elitist. While this criticism is vastly overblown, unfortunately, it does have some basis, not only from the outside looking in but also within the movement itself, including some explicitly arguing f... |
94864e8b-4ce6-4d6f-af6e-34cfe064483d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intelligence Explosion analysis draft: Why designing digital intelligence gets easier over time
Again, I invite your feedback on this snippet from an intelligence explosion analysis Anna Salamon and myself have been working on. This section is less complete than the others; missing text is indicated with bracket... |
e5e22e5b-df51-44f8-9b15-7f8e20617005 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [tangential] Bitcoin: GHash just hit 51%
And apparently the sky is falling. From Ittay Eyal and Emin Gün Sirer at Hacking, Distributed:
But the fact is, this is a monumental event. The Bitcoin narrative, based on decentralization and distributed trust, is no more. True, the Bitcoin economy is about as healthy as it w... |
c03df84a-bcd4-4027-aa4f-aed05211eda7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What if human reasoning is anti-inductive?
Can you help me with generalization of probabilistic reasoning?
I need a generalization of probabilistic inference for "anti-inductive" reasoning.
This post is going to discuss anti-inductive belief updating, perception, learning and reasoning (about hypotheses). Plus evide... |
a8310397-943d-4ab2-b62f-81f987b70e10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forestalling Atmospheric Ignition
It's April, 1945 and you're a high ranking scientist in the Manhattan Project. You also happen to have the ear of President Truman, so your words and actions have a major impact on world outcomes. Everyone has been working hard on the bomb, determined to defeat the Nazis, except that ... |
5cff7124-37ea-4172-97be-22cbbf97b330 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sarah Constantin: Oxygen Supplementation 101
New post by Sarah on oxygen supplementation. Excerpt:
> COVID-19 causes shortness of breath and in severe cases requires artificial ventilation. There is a shortage of mechanical ventilators in hospitals, and a shortage of medical personnel to treat patients with severe C... |
8cb8c85b-33e8-4703-af25-f981aad9d9d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Uncanny Prison
In reading about proposals for AI Boxing, I notice two excerpts jump out at me. First, is a proposed scenario to uncover an unfriendly AI:
> A virtual world between the real world and the AI, where its unfriendly intentions would be first revealed
And the second excerpt of interest is a technique b... |
ead9b8de-fd69-4c35-8c44-349bd93d8f02 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against Nonlinear (Thing Of Things)
Against Nonlinear is a followup that Ozy wrote to Practically A Book Review: Appendix to "Nonlinear's Evidence: Debunking False and Misleading Claims". In it, they lay out 4 trends in Effective Altruism where Nonlinear was especially bad:
* Do It For The Gram: Nonlinear was turnin... |
4ac1b305-054e-4523-9e97-2a3c6793ebb4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Explaining British Naval Dominance During the Age of Sail
The other day I discussed how high monitoring costs can explain the emergence of “aristocratic” systems of governance:
> Aristocracy and Hostage Capital
>
> Arjun Panickssery · Jan 8
> There's a conventional narrative by which the pre-20th century aristocracy... |
c8eb8871-803d-4a42-91cd-b878583c2117 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chris Pikula Belongs in the Magic Hall of Fame
Epistemic Status: Fixing old mistakes, appreciating great old deeds.
(Note to those who do not play Magic: While this is nominally about Magic, I find these points to be of general interest, and wrote the post with that in mind.)
Chris Pikula belongs in the Magic Hall o... |
2e9e0e19-4197-4688-b7e9-a1590cf1d34e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How I saved 1 human life (in expectation) without overthinking it
Does any of this sound familiar? You want to donate as effectively as possible, but you are worried about making the wrong choice. Should it be malaria nets, animal welfare, maybe x-risk? Also, how can you determine which charity evaluators are worthy o... |
cc520b78-6e20-4266-97d8-0f3f3289478b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Let's See You Write That Corrigibility Tag
The [top-rated comment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a-list-of-lethalities?commentId=HRDoDnHv8bvoW7oPZ) on "[AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a-list-of-lethalities)" claims that many othe... |
708c129e-47a6-49f1-a179-e30ffabca7b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do you actually obtain and report a likelihood function for scientific research?
I just read the article https://arbital.com/p/likelihoods_not_pvalues/, but this left me with one big question: what is the actual sequence of actions a researcher would take to report a likelihood function based on their research? Fo... |
273cf849-5320-44fe-a70a-e4fb56be5cfb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
WHEN: 16 October 2016 03:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture
We will be meeting in the courtyard to hang out, play games, and engage in fun conversation.
Upcoming m... |
db50a95f-1155-4de5-bf11-510b54ebd5be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Rhetoric Worth Learning?
A lot of what we talk about on this site is, effectively, how to speak well. How to communicate in a way that leads people to believe truer things.
I rarely see it pointed out that, for many centuries, this used to be called rhetoric and was taught as part of a liberal arts education.
I d... |
a8dccda3-46a8-4f12-b0b9-23f3908b6603 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Boundaries of Biases
Thinking about meta-contrarianism and biases (among other things), I came to the following question:
When are biases a good thing?
Since the caution too important to leave to the conclusion, I'm going to put it before I give an answer, even though the flow will be fudged as a result. In Epis... |
061d7eab-08ab-48bf-8936-3ce82a807bdd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paper out now on creatine and cognitive performance
Our paper “The effects of creatine supplementation on cognitive performance - a randomised controlled study” is out now!
→ Paper: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12916-023-03146-5
→ Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/FabienneSand/status/1726196252747165718?t=qPUghyDGMUb0... |
3be03ff7-d7ad-419a-aae3-5da9c82bc809 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Feedly Breaks MathML
A few days ago I wrote about my experience with MathML, and despite being somewhat positive on it in that post I've decided to stop using it for now. The problem is, it doesn't display for people who follow my blog through RSS on (I'm guessing) most popular RSS system.
Here's a screenshot from my... |
87d04f55-f1e1-4cb1-8c5d-bbbabd0e95df | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Does the Structure of an algorithm matter for AI Risk and/or consciousness?
My impression is that most people around here aren't [especially worried](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7im8at9PmhbT4JHsW/ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty#1_1__Deep_vs__shallow_problem_solving_patterns) about GPT-n being either:... |
ab58d015-e543-40da-8bbc-ab1b0e55b72c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 30th Soar workshop
This is a report from a LessWrong perspective, on the 30th Soar workshop. Soar is a cognitive architecture that has been in continuous development for nearly 30 years, and is in a direct line of descent from some of the earliest AI research (Simon's LT and GPS). Soar is interesting to LessWrong read... |
e4d5ac6c-b014-485f-840b-53eb5d438cbc | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "The Sequences are being released as an eBook, titled Rationality: From AI to Zombies, on March 12.
We went with the name "Rationality: From AI to Zombies" (based on shminux's suggestion) to make it clearer to people — who might otherwise be expecting a self-help book, or an academic text — that the style and contents ... |
facbfd38-c8f2-427f-a45a-84a6fa729bfc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to give effectively to US Dems
This is my opinionated summary of Yglesias’ (former guest on 80k podcast) recent analysis on how to give effectively to moderate Democrats this election.
Rather than doom scrolling and only reading about the US election, Americans should do something and donate effectively to get mo... |
6811ae88-d50d-4f20-8ff3-134a3dd69de6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Solving Dynamic Principal-Agent Problems with a Rationally Inattentive Principal
1 Introduction
---------------
##### Principal-Agents Problems.
Principal-Agent (PA) problems are well-established in the economics literature and occur in many different contexts where multiple parties face misaligned incentives an... |
e199204b-7ff8-4abf-a69b-ff6289e887dd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Google Gemini: AlphaGo-GPT?
in a somewhat provocative new interview
with Wired Magazine Demis hasabis head
of Google deepmind is quoted as saying
that Gemini which could be released as
soon as this winter will be more capable
than open ai's Chachi PT he reveals that
they are attempting to combine some of
the strengths... |
dc1df376-e19e-469b-9be2-8ae1edbbca94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Report from Humanity+ UK 2010
“Theosophists have guessed at the awesome grandeur of the cosmic cycle wherein our world and human race form transient incidents. They have hinted at strange survival in terms which would freeze the blood if not masked by a bland optimism.”
– H.P. Lovecraft on transhumanism
Just thoug... |
75dad067-9bc9-428f-962e-0da9198211cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inversion of theorems into definitions when generalizing
This post describes a pattern of abstraction that is common in mathematics, which I haven't seen described in explicit terms elsewhere. I would appreciate pointers to any existing discussions. Also, I would appreciate more examples of this phenomenon, as well as... |
e8092fcd-3ef2-4df6-b4f3-598285ae8106 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Consciousness Explained, chapter 3
A Visit to the Phenonemological Garden
This chapter categorizes and discusses mental phenomena. It emphasizes that we don't re-draw the outer world inside our heads for a little person to look at.
1. Welcome to the phenom
"Kant distinguished "phenomena," things as they appear, fro... |
8feeceba-1c91-46dc-a4c7-c87f7b0dbe56 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pictures for 2024
Each year I put together a digital photo album with my favorite pictures from the year. Pictures for 2024 initially went very quickly: Nora (3y) and I did a lot of curation together, and the opportunity "do pictures and videos" was very motivating for her as she worked through her morning routine. Af... |
3afdd292-5c57-4a28-9ea4-908f91a4869c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Slack - Having room to be excited
Slack
A few months ago, I came across a concept called Slack, and I have found this an increasingly valuable lens for understanding my life. Slack is, roughly, having spare capacity in my life. Not being pushed to my limits. Having downtime and room to explore. Being robust to smal... |
1741be3a-d475-4404-b805-ec684db9a6b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A thought on AI unemployment and its consequences
I haven't given much thought to the concept of automation and computer induced unemployment. Others at the FHI have been looking into it in more details - see Carl Frey's "The Future of Employment", which did estimates for 70 chosen professions as to their degree of au... |
07d7c7b1-87e3-49b3-8f0b-a739163aa473 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Reward Tampering Problems and Solutions in Reinforcement Learning: A Causal Influence Diagram Perspective
1 Introduction
---------------
A central problem in AI safety is how to get a generally capable, artificially
intelligent system to perform an intended task, such as driving a car to an intended
location, or se... |
7452c1c8-3d79-456d-b7f9-585b09a9ad27 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Use the Try Harder, Luke
> "When there's a will to fail, obstacles can be found." —John McCarthy
I first watched Star Wars IV-VI when I was very young. Seven, maybe, or nine? So my memory was dim, but I recalled Luke Skywalker as being, you know, this cool Jedi guy.
Imagine my horror and disappointment, when I w... |
5114c285-8903-4c4c-bd54-4b03f6daea3d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Impact Measure Desiderata
Previously: *[Worrying about the Vase: Whitelisting](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/H7KB44oKoSjSCkpzL/worrying-about-the-vase-whitelisting)*, *[Overcoming Clinginess in Impact Measures](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DvmhXysefEyEvXuXS/overcoming-clinginess-in-impact-measures)*
If we can pe... |
fd3e02e5-0c3a-422c-9863-fdd1160934e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Average Dialogue
TLDR: 📝📝📝📝📝📝📝📝📝📝📝📝📝
A: Knock-knock!
B: Who's there?
A: Cowgo.
B: Cowgo who?
A: The past year has been a distressingly-active one, for this community. Here, of course, I'm referring to the union of the rationality community, the Effective Altruism community, and the AI alignment/Do... |
5bf654f9-db8b-4602-952e-06a463789043 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What criterion would you use to select companies likely to cause AI doom?
(Asking for a project which involves collecting data from the major AI companies.)
Potential ideas found during a brainstorm:
- Threshold on number of parameters of biggest model produced.
- Threshold on number of money invested in AI rese... |
13ad8536-4149-4e3d-8ed1-54debb774543 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ML Safety Scholars Summer 2022 Retrospective
TLDR
This is a report on the Machine Learning Safety Scholars program, organized over the summer by the Center for AI Safety. 63 students graduated from MLSS: the list of graduates and final projects is here. The program was intense, time-consuming, and at times very diffic... |
56ce30de-7c1c-4c4b-9566-7953cd4790cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Congressional Insider Trading
You’ve probably seen the Nancy Pelosi Stock Tracker on X or else a collection of articles and books exposing the secret and lucrative world of congressional insider trading.
The underlying claim behind these stories is intuitive and compelling. Regulations, taxes, and subsidies can make ... |
0002e28b-7aa0-4b6e-9749-4e646bd79cad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Centre for Applied Rationality: a year later from a (somewhat) outside perspective
I recently had the privilege of being a CFAR alumni volunteering at a later workshop, which is a fascinating thing to do, and put me in a position both to evaluate how much of a difference the first workshop actually made in my lif... |
c523ea6e-5959-474f-8f75-9d58dbc2e04e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to EA Torino [Edit With Your Details]
(The following are our suggestions for what kind of information is best to include in the welcome post of your group, feel free to replace them with whatever you think is best)
What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do?
How frequently does ... |
ed6409b4-27ec-4655-9aea-d08b40bfbe99 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SAEs you can See: Applying Sparse Autoencoders to Clustering
TL;DR
* We train sparse autoencoders (SAEs) on artificial datasets of 2D points, which are arranged to fall into pre-defined, visually-recognizable clusters. We find that the resulting SAE features are interpretable as a clustering algorithm via the natural... |
2f71bbff-603b-432b-9762-cd5c2a06e39d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Human-level Full-Press Diplomacy (some bare facts).
Key links?
* Here's the paper: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ade9097
* Here's the blog post: https://ai.facebook.com/blog/cicero-ai-negotiates-persuades-and-cooperates-with-people/
* Here's the website: https://ai.facebook.com/research/cicero/diploma... |
b91b82f9-972e-46e6-abf0-c751e1bedf2f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Tiling agents theory
The theory of self-modifying agents that build successors that are very similar to themselves, like repeating tiles on a tesselated plane. See [this paper](http://intelligence.org/files/TilingAgentsDraft.pdf) or [this Google search](http://www.google.com/search?q="tiling agents"). |
ebe3627a-47cc-425a-a785-20df4999990a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Home Antigen Tests Aren’t Useful For Covid Screening
Epistemic status: I strongly believe this is the right conclusion given the available data. The best available data is not that good, and if better data comes out I reserve the right to change my opinion.
EDIT (4/27): In a development I consider deeply frustrating ... |
8cbb50ff-2650-49ab-b16b-ab04c8b7679f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Low impact versus low side effects
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
I just had a talk with Victoria Krakovna about reducing side effects for an AI, and though there are similarities with low impact there are some critical way in which the two differ.
#Distance from baseline
Low impact and low side ef... |
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