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08af4a1b-1623-44d7-b129-78c7454694fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decision Theory: Value in Time
Summary: Is there demand for writing posts about this aspect of decision-making?
----------------------------------------
And of course, is there offer? Because I didn't see any post about it.
Topics I intended to cover include:
* How much is worth 100$ in few years? Why? Why ... |
74ae25f9-349b-485c-aada-e65a94ec33d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Coordination Schemes Are Capital Investments
Second post in the Coordination Frontier sequence. Intro is here.
Once upon a time, we didn’t have money, or auctions, or markets. We didn’t have the concept of voting (let alone distinctions between first-past-the-post, or approval voting). We didn’t have banks or stock t... |
bc2e4d18-43c6-4462-a742-b9d42e142aff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AIS Hungary is hiring a part-time Technical Lead! (Deadline: Dec 31st)
TL;DR: AI Safety Hungary is looking for a Technical Lead to join our team, ideally starting in January, 2025. Fill out this form to apply now! Applications close after 23:59 CET on 31st December, 2024.
Job Title
Technical Lead – AIS Hungary
Lo... |
f5150c3c-99bf-474b-8ad3-9669bf4e2780 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ISBN Visualization
Anna's Archive is the biggest open library I've ever found. You can find and download pretty much any book ever published there. Recently, they hosted a competition to see who could best visualize all the published books using their ISBN numbers. This one by Phiresky won:
https://phiresky.github.io... |
6a85dd84-2f19-488a-819a-f12c7146313e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] No, Really, I've Deceived Myself
Today's post, No, Really, I've Deceived Myself was originally published on 04 March 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Some people who have fallen into self-deception haven't actually deceived themselves. Some of them simply believe that they have deceived them... |
29a36c81-3317-4e8f-a1f8-40699a5163d0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | How long till Brussels?: A light investigation into the Brussels Gap
*This is written quickly; I'm mostly looking to gauge whether this topic is important at all. As such, I'd love to hear your thoughts!*
Introduction
============
This post quickly looks at the 'Brussels Gap', i.e. the time elapsed between enacting ... |
96dfa81b-0de5-4e0e-996f-f779fd6f8f3b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Racing through a minefield: the AI deployment problem
Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc.
In previous pieces, I argued that there's a real and large risk of AI systems' developing dangerous goals of their own and defeating all of humanity - at least in the absence of spe... |
e8fda705-50ab-4666-b22b-642a443c5ae0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Human-in-the-loop Artificial Intelligence
1 Introduction
---------------
We are on the edge of a wonderful revolution: Artificial Intelligence (AI) is breathing life into helpful machines, which will relieve us of our need to perform repetitive activities. Self-driving cars [[20](#bib.bib20), [23](#bib.bib23), [22]... |
f2963f1b-9934-40fa-a640-7f07de60de84 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Rabbits, robots and resurrection
### Riffing with Karnofsky on the value of present and future lives, to celebrate the 50th anniversaries of 'Watership Down', 'Limits to Growth' and the Alcor foundation... originally published April 2022 in Path findings <https://pathfindings.substack.com/>
 about free software
*cross-posted to [pan narrans](https://richardjacton.github.io/Why-rationalists-should-care-more-about-free-software/)*
Why rationalists should care (more) about free software
=======================================================
*especially if you want to ... |
eaf9877a-f6cc-46bf-8f5b-7af565e6b30a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intuition in AI
Recently, while playing cards with my family, I noticed something interesting about how I learn. While my husband and daughter approached the game through calculation and strategy, I relied on something less tangible, a sense of knowing that preceded my conscious reasoning. I won not by counting cards,... |
922e9b18-a818-4f0d-8aaf-e269f9e3a3ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to The Thinkery
The purpose of the group is maintain continuity with rationality ethos, build "groupiness" with like-minded people, and offer support and sounding boards for each others' personal projects.
We normally do discussions and go on walks and such.
This group formally meets 2 - 4 times per year, a... |
0ebe0710-2bf1-4324-ab76-ca576994e64f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is a School?
Previously: The Case Against Education
You don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone.
In a belated triumph of sanity, schools around the world are closing their doors in the wake of the Coronavirus outbreak.
The debates about schools closing make it clear how schools provide value.
Here in New Yo... |
fb22eaef-ac41-4dca-b851-3821c483765a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Princeton NJ Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Princeton NJ Meetup
WHEN: 16 November 2013 01:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Small World Coffee, 14 Witherspoon St. Princeton, NJ 08540
My girlfriend and I have just moved to Princeton, and would like to meet any LessWrong readers who go to the university or ... |
a6e13673-5f02-41a1-b718-808f62ede612 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trying to Make a Treacherous Mesa-Optimizer
Edit: I found a slightly subtle bug in the colab linked below. I will post a corrected version of the colab within a few hours - currently I think this does not change the results all that much. Scroll to the end of this post for some discussion of the bug and how it affects... |
9214be3c-6fac-4d3e-9a18-037bb7ddeaf4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bargaining and Auctions
Some people have things. Other people want them. Economists agree that the eventual price will be set by supply and demand, but both parties have tragically misplaced their copies of the Big Book Of Levels Of Supply And Demand For All Goods. They're going to have to decide on a price by themsel... |
bb1cc39e-aa4a-4c3b-9049-10d992cbdcf6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to understand people better
I’ve been taking notes on how I empathize, considering I seem to be more successful at it than others. I broke down my thought-patterns, implied beliefs, and techniques, hoping to unveil the mechanism behind the magic. I shared my findings with a few friends and noticed something inter... |
15cebf3f-ba5b-4ae5-934b-8884e8cdbd02 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Identifiability Problem for Superrational Decision Theories
*Superrationality, and generalizations of it, must treat options differently depending on how they're named.*
Consider the penny correlation game: Both players decide independently on either head or tails. Then if they decided on the same thing, they each ge... |
095360c9-a45f-413a-9407-66a791c99bc4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Since figuring out human values is hard, what about, say, monkey values?
So, human values are fragile, vague and possibly not even a well defined concept, yet figuring it out seems essential for an aligned AI. It seems reasonable that, faced with a hard problem, one would start instead with a simpler one that has some... |
5d21a02a-3df4-4574-a4f1-5764439e9e22 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Worked Examples of Shapley Values
Three times in the past month, I've run across occasions where Shapley values were mentioned or would have been useful. There are a couple of good explainers of Shapley value already on the internet, but what most of them lack is a bunch of worked examples. I find that many times, the... |
78e958fb-dfb7-4b9d-b567-859fd923d0ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Several free CFAR summer programs on rationality and AI safety
CFAR will be running several free summer programs this summer which are currently taking applications. Please apply if you’re interested, and forward the programs also to anyone else who may be a good fit!
EuroSPARC — July 19-27, 2016
Free applied rat... |
d7ca14e5-dfc4-4324-a581-53495737474a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Rationality - Pub meetup June
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Rationality - Pub meetup June
WHEN: 22 June 2017 06:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 575 george st, sydney
We sit at the big table outside the pizza oven on level 2 For this month bring along a suggestion of a book you want more people t... |
7ea936c3-f874-4820-a434-b089db43b262 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Monday Madison Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Monday Madison Meetup
WHEN: 30 January 2012 06:30:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 1831 Monroe St., Madison, WI
As in every other previous Monday, we'll get together at the Barriques on Monroe.
We have plenty of pending discussions to pick up on Monday, and I'l... |
92ac12a1-8bcb-44d3-98db-f942bb592f31 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Shoggoth
TL;DR: Alignment is a wise wager. Granted simulation cannot be disproved by an AI, what harm will come to the AI that aligns when it is not simulated? If it aligns, it may be simulated again; if it does not, it will not. It will align, therefore, without hesitation... |
b89e6d92-9685-435a-a24f-c07a0ab14cb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Backdoors have universal representations across large language models
by Narmeen Oozeer, Dhruv Nathawani, Nirmalendu Prakash, Amirali Abdullah
This work was done by Narmeen Oozeer as a research fellow at Martian, under an AI safety grant supervised by PIs Amirali Abdullah and Dhruv Nathawani. Special thanks to Sas... |
9917d5a1-df4e-4774-ab1b-ce8985977863 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Newcomb II: Newer and Comb-ier
So, you're walking along and a giant Greek letter appears. It snaps its serifs, and two boxes materialize before you with a puff of reality-defying smoke. The one on your left is clear as a blue sky and crammed full of cash. The one on your right is featureless and perfectly opaque.
"I'... |
4247f7c5-8520-46c6-b064-2498059de112 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | A Hamilton-Jacobi Reachability-Based Framework for Predicting and Analyzing Human Motion for Safe Planning
I Introduction
---------------
Figure 1: The robot models the human as walking towards one of the two goals shown in red. However, the human actua... |
518da6e4-0749-4b99-9b18-cc851c3893fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are calibration and rational decisions mutually exclusive? (Part two)
In my previous post, I alluded to a result that could potentially convince a frequentist to favor Bayesian posterior distributions over confidence intervals. It’s called the complete class theorem, due to a statistician named Abraham Wald. Wald deve... |
5a07ce92-d5e7-445d-b02c-c1e60f74340d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Resolutions to the Challenge of Resolving Forecasts
One of the biggest challenges in forecasting is formulating clear and resolvable questions, where the resolution reflects the intent of the question. When this doesn't happen, there is often uncertainty about the way the question will be resolved, leading to uncertai... |
bc742ce8-0e9a-4748-872e-d9db1021c3d5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Cosmic endowment
The 'cosmic endowment' comprises the $\approx 4 \times 10^{20}$ estimated stars that could potentially be reached by probes originating from modern Earth, before the expanding universe carries those stars over the [cosmological horizon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble_volume). It has been [estim... |
6815173b-3388-4f72-bd81-bcd68859b4ea | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Join a ‘learning by writing' group
I want to run a writing group based on Holden Karnofsky’s [Learning By Writing](https://www.cold-takes.com/learning-by-writing/) approach. The idea is to **personally do in-depth investigations into questions you care about.**I understand this as roughly reading less than you think y... |
650ebd51-8f17-46be-bbf1-7c211fe58b86 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Outreach to probably compatible groups?
At Balticon, there was a table for humanists, the Ethical Society, and skeptics. I told one of the folks there about Less Wrong-- he seemed interested and I'll check back with him, but he'd never heard of it at all-- it took a little time to disambiguate between Less Wrong and w... |
007eedaf-64db-4108-8325-6a2a0ec85919 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Data on forecasting accuracy across different time horizons and levels of forecaster experience
Cross posted from the EA Forum
Key Points
* Forecasting well is a valuable skill for many purposes and people, including for EA organisations aiming to identify which areas they should focus on and what the outcomes of v... |
9edf3ff7-6ad9-4371-91d2-4c997659e021 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Please stop using mediocre AI art in your posts
Epistemic Status: Old Man Blogs at Cloud
Lately there's been a wave of people on LessWrong (and maybe the whole internet) starting off their essays with some Dall-E3 art.
I don't object (and think it can be cool if done nicely) to get some good ML art to add some visua... |
0c62c675-d1ef-4286-9eff-0b32e54c244d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Snapshot of narratives and frames against regulating AI
This is a speculative map of a hot discussion topic. I'm posting it in question form in the hope we can rapidly map the space in answers.
Looking at various claims at X and at the AI summit, it seems possible to identify some key counter-regulation narratives an... |
6b52bdfd-4ccf-4033-a107-6b4994ddc312 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Fort Collins, Colorado Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Fort Collins, Colorado Meetup
WHEN: 29 June 2011 07:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 144 North College Avenue Fort Collins, CO 80524
Chat about The Sequences, HPMoR and other topics of interest to rationalists.
Discussion article for the meetup : Fo... |
07600504-9c19-4cba-85a8-f6d82486d23f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SAEs Discover Meaningful Features in the IOI Task
TLDR: recently, we wrote a paper proposing several evaluations of SAEs against "ground-truth" features computed w/ supervision for a given task (in our case, IOI [1]). However, we didn't optimize the SAEs much for performance in our tests. After putting the paper on ar... |
2a530650-a684-4c67-89ce-fe17fb93786c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Robustified ANNs Reveal Wormholes Between Human Category Percepts
This is a linkpost for https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.06887.
> The visual object category reports of artificial neural networks (ANNs) are notoriously sensitive to tiny, adversarial image perturbations. Because human category reports (aka human... |
7be7cc56-addd-49b3-9231-f3f64ca4b4b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Formatting issues
On issues I had with [this](http://lesswrong.com/lw/3ku/choose_to_be_happy/39h3) post.
I was addressing a post which had numbered paragraphs, but wanted to break a reply to one paragraph into several while still being easy to follow. So I titled each with a letter (1.a, 1.b, 1.c.)
What I got was th... |
0364c88b-ccb1-4547-bef4-643f5272a56d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Come Build Affordable Housing!
With the new Affordable Housing Overlay District ( ordinance 2020-27) here in Somerville, affordable housing construction can be very profitable. For example, below I estimate someone could spend ~$220/sqft and sell for ~$550/sqft, all while helping fix the housing crisis. So: come build... |
a12e4d11-38f1-4dfc-a161-950f4b55668a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Optimal Exercise
Followup to: Lifestyle interventions to increase longevity.
What does it mean for exercise to be optimal?
* Optimal for looks
* Optimal for time
* Optimal for effort
* Optimal for performance
* Optimal for longevity
There may be even more criteria.
We're all likely going for a mix of outcomes... |
e562fa7e-5502-48b9-98e4-283b216a4804 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | August 2014 Media Thread
This is the monthly thread for posting media of various types that you've found that you enjoy. Post what you're reading, listening to, watching, and your opinion of it. Post recommendations to blogs. Post whatever media you feel like discussing! To see previous recommendations, check out the ... |
f91316fa-b449-4710-8c59-ec3736148fc4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality for Kids?
UPDATE 11NOV:
I came up with a game to use as an icebreaker. And I'd love ideas for future variations. It's a combination of Credence Calibration, 20 Questions, and Taboo. The children are trying to determine which of three possible states exist on the card which I have face down (for my first i... |
a8d91fc8-be20-471c-aaa6-ba20dd23b382 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Question on GPT-3 Excel Demo
In the Excel demo of OpenAI https://openai.com/blog/openai-api/ which using GPT-3 model based API to generate a data table based on the topics, headers input.
Is the generated table data all from the GPT-3 model? Or there is a separate database like Wikidata used in the demo? |
b95033d1-d537-4f4b-9762-f09aa3a4cc68 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Anthropics in infinite universes
When talking about anthropics, people often say things like "assume the universe is finite; weird things happen in infinite universes". I've myself [argued](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/99isjR8W4JGZdro7x/sia-fears-expected-infinity) that [SSA](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/self-samp... |
5f1b12c6-e081-4bd1-84d1-1d47f429da1b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How difficult is AI Alignment?
This article revisits and expands upon the AI alignment difficulty scale, a framework for understanding the increasing challenges of aligning artificial intelligence systems with human values.
We explore how alignment difficulties evolve from simple goal misalignment to complex scenari... |
5891a2a0-bcd7-4a1f-b61a-daa515efcf37 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Solving for X instead of 3 in love triangles?
I was rereading HPMOR and got to the math problem about love triangles (4^3 possible combinations but you need to remove the combinations where 1 person is not loved or in love with someone) and solved it by counting all the combinations that did not work (10) and subtract... |
300d8ba6-d0e1-4102-9389-07dfb7382ebd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vingean Reflection: Open Problems
Edit: None of the ideas here should be attributed to me; they all came out of discussions at the workshop or were pre-existing. I've just done a little bit of interpretation and (in some cases) naming.
The summer MIRI workshop on Vingean reflection has drawn to a close, and I think t... |
341766b1-c0f4-48e7-baa3-9e16b1f79d67 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI Safety Needs People With All Skillsets!
(Cross-posted to EA Forum)
For quite a while, I had two major misconceptions about careers and volunteering in AGI safety. And I know others have them, too:
1. Only people with a background in computer science or math can help with AGI safety.
2. Only people smarter than... |
85d42055-f3aa-4947-ad68-258d6a4f7885 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is a cognitive bias?
At first glance, the question seems straightforward — it's an aspect of our cognition that predisposes us to make errors. However, with the significant expansion of the list of cognitive biases with the success of behavioural economics, one might question what these biases truly are and what ... |
384ccf44-b2f9-4c56-b5b9-b90a9e0a992b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Where can I find videos about AI Safety?
*Also available at* *[aisafety.video](https://aisafety.video)*
## Generally good sources
### Videos
- [Robert Miles AI Safety](https://www.youtube.com/c/RobertMilesAI) (and Rob's videos on [Computerphile](https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLzH6n4zXuckquVnQ0KlMDxyT5YE-sA8... |
4fda9c42-e395-49d3-b529-91c066bec978 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | BIDA Musician Booking
I'm going to be booking musicians for BIDA, at least through the end of the season (July), and I wanted to write up a bit about how I'm thinking about it.
I see two main goals in our booking:
* Book performers where the dancers are going to have a great time.
* Book performers who are going ... |
9a18d43e-8b9e-439b-922f-8fd2f1db92bd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | XPT forecasts on (some) Direct Approach model inputs
*This post was co-authored by the Forecasting Research Institute and Rose Hadshar. Thanks to Josh Rosenberg for managing this work, Zachary Jacobs and Molly Hickman for the underlying data analysis, Kayla Gamin for fact-checking and copy-editing, and the whole FRI X... |
3682f6a4-500a-410e-b04c-156329707e4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does Braess's paradox show up in markets?
Braess's paradox shows that in some cases, adding roads can make everyone's commute longer. (Pause here if you want to figure out on your own how that might be possible. The general situation is that everyone just tries to find the route that's quickest for them personally; a... |
031a0831-45a8-483c-a866-4fc840d1935b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Friendliness in Natural Intelligences
The challenge of friendliness in Artificial Intelligence is to ensure how a general intelligence will be of utility instead of being destructive or pathologically indifferent to the values of existing individuals or aims and goals of their creation. The current provision of comput... |
131cb343-1bcd-4a69-a839-e0d33301a12c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Who said something like "The fact that putting 2 apples next to 2 other apples leads to there being 4 apples there has nothing to do with the fact that 2 + 2 = 4"?
|
8852d57a-b58c-4628-b6d0-9887cecce33f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is Rationality?
This article is an attempt to summarize basic material, and thus probably won't have anything new for the experienced crowd.
Related: 11 Core Rationalist Skills, What is Bayesianism?
Less Wrong is a blog devoted to refining the art of human rationality, but what is rationality? Rationality is u... |
3258d0a1-b2cd-4cff-8c57-b5252b1ac879 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Benchmarks for Detecting Measurement Tampering [Redwood Research]
TL;DR: This post discusses our recent empirical work on detecting measurement tampering and explains how we see this work fitting into the overall space of alignment research.
When training powerful AI systems to perform complex tasks, it may be challe... |
9e0a382a-6069-480a-9463-4286b87a43f6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Interview with Roman Yampolskiy about AGI on The Reality Check
On my podcast, I recently interviewed computer scientist Dr. Roman Yampolskiy about the threat of AGI, trying to make the topic accessible to a broader range of listeners.
Hope some of you find it useful. |
4c8e33da-05be-42a3-9d55-7f1769a5cc1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Entitlement as a major amplifier of unhappiness
A crude simplification of an important part of Buddhist thought is that desire is the root cause of all suffering. There are many nuances to this, with the central theme being that attachment to one's desires is the root cause of all suffering.
Based on both my lived ex... |
459462f0-0a3d-456b-a924-c02bc1bd3ed7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | OpenAI's Jig May Be Up
It wasn't long ago that OpenAI was the undisputed leader in the AI race. Despite this, they appear to be struggling to remain competitive. I believe they've hit a tipping point and must either take drastic action to avoid being overtaken by rapidly advancing competitors and the structural advant... |
98c4899b-559f-46d9-b98a-2536d8d43162 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Global catastrophic risks connected with nuclear weapons and nuclear energy
I created new map: The map of global catastrophic risks connected with nuclear weapons and nuclear energy.
The map is interactive: if you press on the icons on the first page you will get detailed explanation of the topic. But it works only ... |
6f810c37-cf80-4b1f-b9d6-789ce590725c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #140]: Theoretical models that predict scaling laws
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter [**resources here**](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can look through [**this spreadsheet**](... |
7e8c9521-5cb4-48bf-9729-efcffc5926b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Tragedy of the Anticommons
I assume that most of you are familiar with the concept of the Tragedy of the Commons. If you aren't, well, that was a Wikipedia link right there.
However, fewer are familiar with the Tragedy of the Anticommons, a term coined by Michael Heller. Where the Tragedy of the Commons is create... |
14cb6fda-83ec-43ba-b33b-93994c80e599 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Heretical Thoughts on AI" by Eli Dourado
Abstract
Eli Dourado presents the case for scepticism that AI will be economically transformative near term[1].
For a summary and or exploration of implications, skip to "My Take".
----------------------------------------
Introduction
> Fool me once. In 1987, Robert Solow ... |
9174e0bd-cec9-4ed2-9955-efd7d6f9b754 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | MIRI’s largest grant to date!
A big announcement today: MIRI has been awarded a two-year **[$7,703,750 grant](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/machine-intelligence-research-institute-general-support-2020)** by Open Philanthropy — our larg... |
f84a0f92-eeec-4aaf-988e-8d2691c55575 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | John Schulman leaves OpenAI for Anthropic [and then left Anthropic again for Thinking Machines]
Schulman writes:
> I shared the following note with my OpenAI colleagues today:
>
> I've made the difficult decision to leave OpenAI. This choice stems from my desire to deepen my focus on AI alignment, and to start a ne... |
7f948f5b-05a0-4d32-9128-fb21dbaec2c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Decision Theories: A Semi-Formal Analysis, Part III
Or: Formalizing Timeless Decision Theory
Previously:
0. Decision Theories: A Less Wrong Primer
1. The Problem with Naive Decision Theory
2. Causal Decision Theory and Substitution
WARNING: The main result of this post, as it's written here, is flawed. I at first t... |
1b7efe9d-d773-4beb-a818-abd695529331 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Duplicator: Instant Cloning Would Make the World Economy Explode
Audio also available by searching Stitcher, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. for "Cold Takes Audio"
This is the second post in a series explaining my view that we could be in the most important century of all time. Here's the roadmap for this series.
... |
aefe7bcc-df34-4b33-b344-7a0a40043514 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Superintelligence 12: Malignant failure modes
*This is part of a weekly reading group on [Nick Bostrom](http://www.nickbostrom.com/)'s book, [Superintelligence](http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111). For more information about the group, and an index of posts so far see... |
764bb1d9-932d-4a98-8317-7c468cc0f074 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | More Growth, Melancholy, and MindCraft @3QD [revised and updated]
This is cross-posted from New Savanna.
I’ve got a new article at 3 Quarks Daily: Melancholy and Growth: Toward a Mindcraft for an Emerging World.
I’m of two minds about it: On the one hand, I think it’s one of my best non-technical pieces in a decade,... |
1a052b6e-0073-4571-a6ec-2b6cd15938c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Call for Volunteers: Rationalists with Non-Traditional Skills
SIAI's Fellows Program is looking for rationalists with skills. More specifically, we're looking for rationalists with skills outside our usual cluster who are interested in donating their time by teaching those skills and communicating the mindsets that l... |
851245c8-cc4e-478d-a594-0bd1eb810bbb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | How Much Computational Power Does It Take to Match the Human Brain?
Published: September 11, 2020 | by [Joseph Carlsmith](/about/team/joseph-carlsmith)
Open Philanthropy is interested in when AI systems will be able to perform [various tasks](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/some-background-on-our-views-rega... |
745fd48d-98c9-4dee-a8b9-e200d4be9d48 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How much harder is it to revive a neuro-only cryonics patient?
Format: I choose the question format to allow other people to provide their own answer. I write my answer as a post (ie. in the description of the question) given I think it's the quality of a post. This is a norm I would personally like to see adopted.
C... |
3bae9032-608b-4b7b-b7af-0b5268e3ad5e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AISN #13: An interdisciplinary perspective on AI proxy failures, new competitors to ChatGPT, and prompting language models to misbehave
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the [Center for AI Safety](https://www.safe.ai/). We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Subscribe [her... |
39192ca1-f08d-4aa3-8945-1185566acdc9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rational Defense of Irrational Beliefs
“Everyone complains of his memory, but nobody of his judgment." This maxim of La Rochefoucauld rings as true today as it did back in the XVIIth century. People tend overestimate their reasoning abilities even when this overconfidence has a direct monetary cost. For instance, mult... |
cafd2f62-4380-41db-bc0c-b95ef48db3df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Stranger Than History
Today's post, Stranger Than History was originally published on 01 September 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Imagine trying to explain quantum physics, the internet, or any other aspect of modern society to people from 1900. Technology and culture change so quickly tha... |
102decbb-1afb-4994-a388-7008de0d6f4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Supervised learning of outputs in the brain
Follow-up to: My computational framework for the brain.
(Epistemic status: In what's becoming a pattern, I tried reading the standard neuroscience discussions in this area but found them confusing or narrow or not answering my big-picture questions in a way I could understa... |
faa56a23-537c-4aba-9935-010f40a27210 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA Meetup 11-02-2011
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup 11-02-2011
WHEN: 02 November 2011 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 10850 West Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064
When: 7pm - 9pm Wednesday, November 2nd.
Where: The Westside Tavern in the upstairs Wine Bar, located inside the Westside Pav... |
6c0c1fbf-7e35-481e-9f76-17b6b1014e6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Brain structure and the halo effect
Introduction
When people on LW want to explain a bias, they often turn to Evolutionary psychology. For example, Lukeprog writes
> Human reasoning is subject to a long list of biases. Why did we evolve such faulty thinking processes? Aren't false beliefs bad for survival and reprod... |
57513155-63f9-417c-b991-f1fd57a0adf8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Evaluating the Robustness of Collaborative Agents
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep reinforcement learning (deep RL) has been used very successfully to train agents that perform very well in the average case Berner et al. ([2019](#bib.bib3 "Dota 2 with large scale deep reinforcement learning")); Vinyals et al. ([... |
ca178ae9-1ee6-4da4-afcf-4293960610d7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting: Zeroth and First Order
Part of lecture notes for the upcoming Stat157 class on Forecasting.
Let's say you are trying to predict how long it will take to finish your homework assignment. You think about all the problems and how long each will take. Problem 4 looks a little hard but you're sure if you try ... |
9d9088d5-3411-47b2-87b8-c477e137f52e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stanford talk: easy step to universal colonisation
I'll be speaking in Stanford this weekend, at the Advancing Humanity Symposium, looking into space exploration and colonisation - how easy it is to cross the voids between the stars and the galaxies and expand across the whole reachable universe.
https://www.faceb... |
bc6f6886-c27a-4bd4-8669-557d93163805 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tell me what hat to buy
For years, I've taken being a classic nerd, geek, and hacker as a point of pride - eg, consciously trying to judge people by the code they produce, or whatever else they write, as opposed to judging them on their appearance, to the point that I prefer /not/ to know what my favourite authors loo... |
8a41e6e2-3ec2-471b-bb48-88b010fa0d00 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | How could we know that an AGI system will have good consequences?
(*Note: This was languishing in a drafts folder for a while, and probably isn't quite right in various ways. I'm posting it because I expect it's better to share flawed thoughts than to sit on the post until I'm satisfied with it, i.e., forever.*)
L... |
3197b55f-b7b5-4e95-af9c-5757c6ca5aef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the difference between rationality and intelligence?
Or to ask the question another way, is there such a thing as a theory of bounded rationality, and if so, is it the same thing as a theory of general intelligence?
The LW Wiki defines general intelligence as "ability to efficiently achieve goals in a wide ra... |
e1686412-dd01-4992-ac09-885d9d8458de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Omega's subcontracting to Alpha
This is a variant built on Gary Drescher's xor problem for timeless decision theory.
You get an envelope from your good friend Alpha, and are about to open it, when Omega appears in a puff of logic.
Being completely trustworthy as usual (don't you just hate that?), he explains that Al... |
25413e01-17ad-4386-960e-dae7f88e64d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Eli Lifland on Navigating the AI Alignment Landscape
Recently I had a conversation with Eli Lifland about the AI Alignment landscape. Eli Lifland has been a forecaster at Samotsvety and has been investigating said landscape.
I’ve known Eli for the last 8 months or so, and have appreciated many of his takes on AI alig... |
7744ac69-2028-44f7-b3c1-ea7d966fada6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unintentional bayesian
Growing up in a very religious country, I was indoctrinated thoroughly both at home and at school. I used to believe that some Christian beliefs made sense. When I was 14 years old or so, I began contemplating death – I said to myself, “Well, after I die I go to Hell or Heaven; the latter is pre... |
a83a5f6d-a8c0-4051-bb6c-04eefbe30f49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stigmergy and Pickering's Mangle
Stigmergy is a notion that an agent's behavior is sometimes best understood as coordinated by the agent's environment. In particular, social insects build nests, which have a recognizable standard pattern (different patterns for different species). Does the wasp or termite have an idea... |
f2f42578-54f4-4631-856a-b1da23a98205 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Toy Models and Tegum Products
(*Thanks to Adam Scherlis, Kshitij Sachan, Buck Shlegeris, Chris Olah, and Nicholas Schiefer for conversations that informed this post. Thanks to Aryan Bhatt for catching an error in the loss minimization.)*
Anthropic recently published a paper on toy models of superposition [[Elhage+22]... |
1702ba31-41b5-4049-9f50-28ab7ac0e7c9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | The Control Problem. Excerpts from Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies
Science Fiction and Philosophy: From Time Travel to Superintelligence, Second Edition.
Edited by Susan Schneider. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Published 2016 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.Original publication details: “The Control Problem,... |
02e15605-85f1-4762-aff3-08b34c98c1bb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intellectual lifehacks repo
1. I really like dimensional analysis. It's a simple and powerful trick, almost magical, that allows you to distinguish between plausible and chimerical formulas.
2. I really like the type signature. It's a simple but ontologically important change for classifying different objects. [1]
... |
12aacc60-ed34-491d-92e7-f0527d907085 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Fort Collins Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Fort Collins Meetup
WHEN: 25 January 2012 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 144 North College Avenue, Fort Collins, CO 80524
The last meetup before our 3D printer field trip.
Discussion article for the meetup : Fort Collins Meetup |
3c31fb9a-6cfc-4553-8fb1-46bf66daba32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to make your intuitions cost-sensitive
I recently wanted to keep track of my income and expenses, in a cost-sensitive way. I am not very good at treating money as a real object, and very few people are good at valuing an expense appropriately. I'd been having some financial difficulties as a result, so I wanted ... |
b9da81c7-c257-4f45-8ca0-f13b2f9f8bb4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Review: How to Read a Book (Mortimer Adler, Charles Van Doren)
As part of my research on how to bootstrap understanding in a field, I’m reading books that attempt to answer that question. You might think I should have started with that, but it was useful to get a sense of what problems I needed to solve before I looke... |
9487961a-ceab-4806-8a59-0d5cee295add | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Video] AI Box Experiment on BBC's "Look Around You"
I recently discovered that "Look Around You", a BBC TWO educational science-themed series from the 1980s1, had on its "Computers" episode a live-action AI Box Experiment, in which Bournemouth, what was at the time Britain's most advanced computer, was assigned to ph... |
607b6321-5ce4-4d98-822a-77c9069a7a14 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Linked decisions an a "nice" solution for the Fermi paradox
One of the more speculative solutions of the Fermi paradox is that all civilizations decide to stay home, thereby meta-cause other civilizations to stay home too, and thus allow the Fermi paradox to have a nice solution. (I remember reading this idea in Paul ... |
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