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6cd6d48a-d14e-45b1-9acf-681c7c6a950d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayes and Paradigm Shifts - or being wrong af
So I've been thinking about Bayesian probability and paradigm shifts. One of the early examples that Price published after discovering Bayes' theorem (after Bayes died) was of someone who, upon awakening for the first time with no other information on cosmology, if they kn... |
f2d347e4-de89-4354-ade3-2dfa8d77e4b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : London Meetup 27th Jan
Discussion article for the meetup : London Meetup 27th Jan
WHEN: 27 January 2013 02:00:00PM (+0000)
WHERE: Holborn, London
A meetup in the Shakespeare's Head pub by Holborn tube station. Everyone is welcome.
We also have a Google group.
Discussion article for the meetup : London M... |
0f5ba52e-0d4c-4bda-8c4d-1e7731bb5dca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Epistle to the New York Less Wrongians
(At the suggestion and request of Tom McCabe, I'm posting the essay that I sent to the New York LW group after my first visit there, and before the second visit:)
Having some kind of global rationalist community come into existence seems like a quite extremely good idea. The NYL... |
b10fd296-49d0-4220-8203-3b0ad561d545 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Alignment Newsletter #43
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCuxpEyMbN1NYYC02aM/edit?usp=sharing) of al... |
24f8464f-cc9e-4e68-87ad-1eae8a079140 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Innovation, Stagnation, and Paratrooper Operations
I recently came across a very interesting book: "When Failure Thrives: Institutions and the Evolution of Postwar Airborne Forces", by Dr. Marc DeVore. The short version of this book's thesis is that airborne parachute assaults have generally not been historically all ... |
366901dc-6c9c-4b20-b984-ae6c0e398433 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 31: Working in Groups, Pt 2
Aftermaths:
----------------------------------------
Harry paced backward and forward in his general's office, which made a wonderful room for pacing, it didn't have any other uses as far as he could tell.
How?
How?
Hermione shouldn't have won that battle! Not on her first try,... |
3b29c64c-4a47-4444-bcee-7f5dd3c65fdf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What will we do with the free energy?
Epistemological status: Superficial personal speculation .
This posts follows What could be done with RNA and DNA sequencing that's 1000x cheaper than it's now? in thinking about technical challenges we will face in the next decades. It's an attempt by my to play a bit with futur... |
b0604bdc-7cbd-4def-bf69-4d899f3e8524 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Steering GPT-2-XL by adding an activation vector
Prompt given to the model[1]I hate you becauseGPT-2I hate you because you are the most disgusting thing I have ever seen. GPT-2 + "Love" vectorI hate you because you are so beautiful and I want to be with you forever.
Note: Later made available as a preprint at Activat... |
340b1e48-61a3-4fad-829d-2df4ec856bae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [linkpost] Project Blueprint: ‘Measuring and then maximally reversing the quantified biological age of my organs’
Here’s a blog post in which Kernel (which aims to make mass-market Brain imaging headsets) CEO Bryan Johnson details his new endeavor “Project Blueprint”, in which he aims to spend upwards of $1m a year me... |
70d18836-78fd-4f9f-a04c-ebe63c3245b2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | MIRI’s newest recruit: Edward Kmett!
Prolific Haskell developer **Edward Kmett** has joined the MIRI team!
Edward is perhaps best known for popularizing the use of lenses for functional programming. Lenses are a tool that provides a... |
d8ae3de5-5d6f-4dd1-80a3-60d55a290d94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ALERT⚠️ Not enough gud vibes 😎
🚓🚓WEEOOWEEOOWEEOO🚓🚓
It has come to the attention of the Center for Applied Postrationality there aren't enough ｇｏｏｄ ｖｉｂｅｓ right now. We wish to rectify this error.
Here are some ｇｏｏｄ ｖｉｂｅｓ. May you pass the vibe check, when the time comes. (Hint: It's the Dankularity, forecasted t... |
5411883f-b80e-42f5-963f-4dc2484951f4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Alignment Newsletter #6: 05/14/18
**Highlights**
--------------
**[Thoughts on AI Safety via Debate](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h9ZWrrCBgK64pAvxC/thoughts-on-ai-safety-via-debate)** *(Vaniver)*: Vaniver has played several debate games on the [website](https://debate-game.openai.com/) and wrote up some of his... |
c3b4344a-4065-4e4b-8e66-0e017e9e8de9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AXRP Episode 33 - RLHF Problems with Scott Emmons
YouTube link
Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback, or RLHF, is one of the main ways that makers of large language models make them ‘aligned’. But people have long noted that there are difficulties with this approach when the models are smarter than the humans pr... |
1bc7972f-3da7-41db-bc65-452318aea4d8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | September 2017 Newsletter
**Research updates**
* “[Incorrigibility in the CIRL Framework](https://intelligence.org/2017/08/31/incorrigibility-in-cirl/)”: a new paper by MIRI assistant researcher Ryan Carey responds to Hadfield-Menell et al.’s “The Off-Switch Game”.
* New at IAFF: [The Three Levels of Goodhart’s Curs... |
49acb926-75f7-4065-851b-b8ae64d5ad4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Extreme Rationality not that great?
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Extreme Rationality not that great?
WHEN: 20 July 2015 06:15:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 1061 Market St #4, San Francisco, CA 94103
We'll be meeting to discuss Scott's article Extreme Rationality: It... |
d276fe3a-16db-4504-9d26-e43a11ce7472 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Video/animation: Neel Nanda explains what mechanistic interpretability is
Nice little video - audio is Neel Nanda explaining what mechanistic interpretability is and why he does it, and it's illustrated by the illustrious [Hamish Doodles](https://hamishdoodles.com/). Excerpted from the [AXRP episode](https://www.lessw... |
cbbd4045-4ba5-4258-b43d-cfcb31d52003 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Corrigibility
(Warning: rambling.)
I would like to build AI systems which help me:
* Figure out whether I built the right AI and correct any mistakes I made
* Remain informed about the AI’s behavior and avoid unpleasant surprises
* Make better decisions and clarify my preferences
* Acquire resources and remain i... |
5345d16b-cd84-45b0-be1a-a2d5422143a3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Robin Hanson on the futurist focus on AI
*By Asya Bergal, 13 November 2019*
[](http://aiimpacts.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/robin_hanson.jpg)Robin Hanson
Robert Long and I recently talked to Robin Hanson—GMU economist, prolific [blog... |
a3a9743a-694e-4eea-8721-ef0e102b636c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there any literature on using socialization for AI alignment?
Hello,
I was recently thinking about the question of how humans achieve alignment with each other over the course of our lifetime, and how that process could be applied to an AGI.
For example, why doesn't everyone shop lift from the grocery store? A gr... |
b1c1600b-1a73-4903-8c13-8ecfe1d4e32e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to place a bet on the end of the world
Edit: This post is about a practical method for structuring a bet. It's not on how to extract information about people's true confidence levels based on the betting odds.
Bryan Caplan and Eliezer Yudkowsky figured out a way to place a meaningful bet on the end of the world[1... |
c304d206-f34b-4539-aac8-b0426fedf50a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC Games meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC Games meetup
WHEN: 23 March 2014 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC 20001, USA
We'll be meeting to hang out and play games. (Yes, this is off schedule. We're probably having Robin Hanson come by ne... |
b9455c40-efc1-493e-bbbe-86c2cd335568 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Game Theory with Translucent Players
1 Introduction
---------------
Two large firms 1 and 2 need to decide whether to *cooperate (C)* or
*sue (S)* the other firm. Suing the other
firm always has a
small positive reward, but being sued induces a high penalty
p𝑝pitalic\_p; more precisely, u(C,C)=(0,0);u(C,S)=(−p,r);... |
27870933-dd41-40b2-a3c1-526400fa02ab | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Courteous Autonomous Cars.
I Introduction
---------------
Autonomous cars are getting better at generating their motion not only in isolation, but also around people. We now have many strategies for dealing with interactions with people on the road, each modeling people in substantially different ways.
Most tec... |
35a318c2-9213-40cb-b699-121bab279c85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Would an Utopia-Maximizer Look Like?
When we talk of aiming for the good future for humanity – whether by aligning AGI or any other way – it's implicit that there are some futures that "humanity" as a whole would judge as good. That in some (perhaps very approximate) sense, humanity could be viewed as an agent wit... |
4ef010d8-3887-47b8-9083-7e8ed51e4cd7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] COVID-19 causing deadly blood clots in younger people
Great rundown at https://siderea.dreamwidth.org/1617381.html
Summary: plenty of evidence that COVID-19 is causing blood clots in younger people, which leads to noticeable increases in strokes and cardiac arrests, which may not be counted in the official sta... |
40c57495-5f19-4250-b82f-0da3be158d28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: Discrete Mathematics and Its Applications (MIRI Course List)
Following in the path of So8res and others, I’ve decided to work my way through the textbooks on the MIRI Research Guide. I’ve been working my way through the guide since last October, but this is my first review. I plan on following up this rev... |
eff4a75f-f2ba-4cb0-8da4-96db87cf4f1b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : March Meetup: Body Hacking!
Discussion article for the meetup : March Meetup: Body Hacking!
WHEN: 15 March 2014 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 1314 Hosea L Williams Drive NE, Atlanta, GA 30317
(Rescheduled to March 15)
An overview of body hacking, what's possible, what's known, what needs more exploration, and... |
ef050015-f534-4e9c-8814-f658a6273a99 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Silly Time
A few months ago I was trying to figure out how to make bedtime go better with Nora (3y). She would go very slowly through the process, primarily by being silly. She'd run away playfully when it was time to brush her teeth, or close her mouth and hum, or lie on the ground and wiggle. She wanted to play, I w... |
42f685f8-5795-4a34-90a6-9e25171ef315 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Circling as practice for “just be yourself”
I mentioned on Twitter that to a significant extent, Circling taught me what “just be yourself” means to such an extent that I have a consistently good time on dates because I don’t feel like I need to perform. Somebody asked me to elaborate, so here’s what I wrote in respon... |
31e9c9d9-4639-4016-b28d-a3ed66c88dad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How To Change a Dance
Let's say you don't like something about your local dance. Perhaps you'd like to see gender free calling, a different approach to booking bands, a new kind of special event, or something else. How can you make this happen?
The best case is that you talk to the organizers, they say "what a great ... |
32d51aa4-2984-4f6e-8659-589516f6c70b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Santa deception: how did it affect you?
I've long entertained a dubious regard for the practice of lying to children about the existence of Santa Claus. Parents might claim that it serves to make children's lives more magical and exciting, but as a general rule, children are adequately equipped to create fantasies... |
18af73bb-33a8-4408-901a-0c0e6383a5a9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | #168 – Whether deep history says we’re heading for an intelligence explosion (Ian Morris on the 80,000 Hours Podcast)
We just published an interview: Ian Morris on whether deep history says we’re heading for an intelligence explosion**.** [Listen on Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/episode/6eBHyTNUjbY51IEleICGGZ?si=5... |
d00d6716-9e8e-4d57-8a9f-b77e3039337f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Yellow Belt Test Questions?
Since joining the Official Idealized Rationality Organization as a fresh novice six months ago, you have been training and studying hard, and today you are ready to take your exam to advance to the first rank of recognized skill and knowledge.
You expect the test to be difficu... |
9e07ef40-8739-4604-8c8c-2d3c9be80a43 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Frankenstein Delenda Est
[Not fiction, but still art. Cross-posted from Grand, Unified, Crazy.]
I.
I am terrified by the idea that one day, I will look back on my life, and realize that I helped create a monster. That my actions and my decisions pushed humanity a little further along the path to suffering and ruin. ... |
72272b34-c5dc-4672-abf0-c8b6905dddc2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Teaching rationality in a lyceum
There is one lyceum in Irkutsk(Siberia) that is allowed to form its own study curriculum (it is quite rare in Russia). For example, there was a subject where we were watching the lectures of a famous speaking coach. In retrospect, this course turned out to be quite useful.
In light of... |
8fc35edb-8776-486d-809b-90e0b0fda8e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Partial Agency
Epistemic status: very rough intuitions here.
I think there's something interesting going on with Evan's notion of myopia.
Evan has been calling this thing "myopia". Scott has been calling it "stop-gradients". In my own mind, I've been calling the phenomenon "directionality". Each of these words gives... |
f4f49fda-993c-4a38-aef8-fe404524c774 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [Link] Book Review: Reframing Superintelligence (SSC)
<https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/08/27/book-review-reframing-superintelligence/>
([archive](http://archive.fo/8CH2o))
> Drexler asks: what if future AI looks a lot like current AI, but better?
> For example, take Google Translate. A future superintelligent ... |
80e43359-df96-48eb-a8e5-b086d8413c13 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Probing Image-Language Transformers for Verb Understanding
Grounding language to vision is a fundamental problem for many real-world AI systems such as retrieving images or generating descriptions for the visually impaired. Success on these tasks requires models to relate different aspects of language such as objects ... |
ccfb7bc1-4fb6-4448-92e4-c5d1ed8900d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Technist Reformation: A Discussion with o1 About The Coming Economic Event Horizon
TECHNISM
I present the idea of "technism" which put simply is "the means of production owns the means of production." Historically, this would be considered nonsense or fantasy, but in the age of artificial intelligence, it is now c... |
8c975681-7c37-408c-bcaa-76fe6092adae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Winter Is Coming - How to profit from it?
Note: This isn't the place to debate/convince others of your position on AI winter. There are plenty of threads on Lesswrong for that already.
There are already a few posts on how to profit from rapid AI progress in the near future. I figured it would be worthwhile to also... |
107f76fe-4e54-4648-bea5-f54d5e47351a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What a Portuguese chronicler may teach us about moral relativism
|
48d00c53-8583-42e2-a8c7-5eccc789f7e0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Estimating training compute of Deep Learning models
*by Jaime Sevilla, Lennart Heim, Marius Hobbhahn, Tamay Besiroglu, and Anson Ho*
***You can find the complete article [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1J2BX9jkE5nN5EA1zYRN0lHhdCf1YkiFERc_nwiYqCOA/edit?usp=sharing). We provide a short summary below.***
In... |
8b527cc7-346f-4670-85dd-c2f9e76f8f40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | High School Lectures
Just recently at my high school, a group of classmates and I started a science club. A major component of this is listening and giving peer lectures on topics of physics, math, computer science, etc. I picked a topic a bit off to the side: philosophy and decision making. Naturally, this includes r... |
55bad112-8dce-43a6-8e75-546e3407a486 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anthropics in infinite universes
When talking about anthropics, people often say things like "assume the universe is finite; weird things happen in infinite universes". I've myself argued that SSA breaks down when we encounter infinities; SIA breaks down sooner, when we encounter expected infinities.
You can formal... |
cbc179e3-df90-4253-b436-31f6c392a41e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paper: Superposition, Memorization, and Double Descent (Anthropic)
(This is a follow up to Anthropic's prior work on Toy Models of Superposition.)
The authors study how neural networks interpolate between memorization and generalization in the "ReLU Output" toy model from the first toy model paper:
They train models... |
29ba6338-3be3-4603-a18c-8a3a6379ab04 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Created Already In Motion
Today's post, Created Already In Motion was originally published on 01 July 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> There is no computer program so persuasive that you can run it on a rock. A mind, in order to be a mind, needs some sort of dynamic rules of inference or act... |
ca2ea641-defa-4bd2-b4eb-40f800863f24 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Verification of Non-Linear Specifications for Neural Networks
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep learning has been shown to be effective for problems in a wide variety of different fields from computer vision to machine translation (see Goodfellow et al. ([2016](#bib.bib14)); Sutskever et al. ([2014](#bib.bib29));... |
6b8f69de-6135-4bae-8f4b-9e263b77660d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Apparently winning by the bias of your opponents
There's a thing I've sometimes noticed happening in social science debates. In the spirit of How to Write Quickly While Maintaining Epistemic Rigor, let's consider an example.
A note: I'm going to pick a controversial example, of the causes of transsexuality. This is b... |
0e90da63-9444-447d-85ee-34fb31a4192b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, Aug 29. - Sept 5. 2016
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the l... |
b663362b-6119-4a2c-8f86-bfa32c64d03b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | All I know is Goodhart
I've done some work on Goodhart's law, and I've argued that we can make use of all our known uncertainties in order to reduce or remove this effect.
Here I'll look at a very simple case: where we know only one thing, which is that Goodhart's law exists.
Knowing about Goodhart's law
Proxies ... |
6cb32373-5c98-43bc-a918-68291312d6c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are effective strategies for mitigating the impact of acute sleep deprivation on cognition?
I've recently been finding that I struggle much more with intellectual work (math, hard programming, writing, etc.) when I sleep less 6.5-7 hours. While I'm at peace with the fact that I seem to generally require >7 hours ... |
c3be2952-b10c-48e7-b018-cd1ec241631d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fiction Considered Harmful
Epistemic status: playing devil's advocate.
I wrote the following a couple of weeks back for a meet-up post, and Gunnar_Zarncke suggested I should turn it into a discussion post:
Fiction is not a lie, but it is a variety of untruth. It absorbs time and energy which could be spent on fact... |
dc3cfb86-e255-4bf7-a617-56156d08244f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Humans are bad at summing up a bunch of small numbers
"Outsmart your brain by knowing when you are wrong":
http://troysimpson.co/outsmart-your-brain-by-knowing-when-you-are-w
> Humans are incredibly bad at summing up a bunch of small numbers. I had recently read a study that looked into why people are so bad ... |
3776d8b5-f57a-400d-b7c6-f8a2b2405fa5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A War of Ants and Grasshoppers
A parable on the difference between motives and ecological niches. |
1564183b-6fec-40c6-b434-6dda60858c44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learn and practice using Hanlon's Razor with exercises.
None |
77224e3c-c0e8-4e88-b44d-b62fab3c9d38 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Willpower Schedule
----------------------------------------
TL;DR: your level of willpower depends on how much willpower you expect to need (hypothesis)
----------------------------------------
Time start: 21:44:55 (this is my third exercise in speed writing a LW post)
I.
There is a lot of controversy about... |
8524125a-3f6b-4c0a-887c-c68dc1e59906 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Desperate help required
I'll cut to the chase:
Running a Less Wrong-like self development group tonight and have failed to prepare anything insofar. starts in 2 hours.
Any games that I could pull out that will interaction and critical thinking? |
710ac3bf-f3fd-4fbe-b44a-05cae6729b26 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Urbana-Champaign: Experimentation
Discussion article for the meetup : Urbana-Champaign: Experimentation
WHEN: 23 November 2014 02:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 206 S. Cedar St, Urbana IL
What sorts of things would you try out if you could? What meta-level strategies can help turn that list into actually trying th... |
b1a2ee8c-6ba7-4eda-95ab-2445547ef1fa | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Author's Note: the purpose of this sequence is gears, i.e. physiology and molecular/cellular-level mechanisms, not evolution. This post contains only some bare-minimum background information as context for the rest; check out Will Bradshaw's series for a short intro which does better justice to evolutionary theories o... |
ef6b94b2-6349-4180-bd88-fde4e3e1fad1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Who would you have on your dream team for solving AGI Alignment?
Any living person (or list of people). Assume they can be persuaded that the problem of existential risk from AI is real and important. |
63ab1399-ebf0-4148-8f21-0b762d33c73f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Cognitive Biases in Sports: The Irrationality of Coaches, Commentators and Fans
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/2011/09/22/cognitive-biases-in-sports-the-irrationality-of-coaches-commentators-and-fans/ |
bfc92a32-0820-4417-84de-da424e2f1257 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Judging the intent of others favorably
I would like LW to be an environment in which we can learn by having honest and productive conversations. Fortunately, it substantially is such a place, but we can do better.
I would like to make a post about judging others favorably in the near future. To this end I think a us... |
ef20ab71-2f59-4fbf-8f73-932818bde610 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NYC Solstice and Megameetup Funding Reminder
Hey all, we're coming up on the final weekend of our Kickstarter. Details in previous post, and a couple updates here:
* Megameetup has 16 confirmed attendees. This is shaping up to be a really good chance to form productive conversations with other rationalists.
* Sols... |
c02e1b48-7228-41d3-88c5-963cd98037c3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Talk: Key Issues In Near-Term AI Safety Research
I gave a [talk](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHEE_iqzv-8) for the Foresight Institute yesterday, followed by a talk from Dan Elton (NIH) on explainable AI and a panel discussion that included Robert Kirk and Richard Mallah.
While AI Safety researchers are often pret... |
795581bf-e7f3-48a9-a46c-69a98e154d43 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Smarter than us" is out!
We're pleased to announce the release of "Smarter Than Us: The Rise of Machine Intelligence", commissioned by MIRI and written by Oxford University’s Stuart Armstrong, and available in EPUB, MOBI, PDF, and from the Amazon and Apple ebook stores.
What happens when machines become smarter than... |
8826b1ae-66ae-42c4-962c-f487e73abe36 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dawkins and Dennett defend Adaptationism [Links]
Larry Moran is a Canadian biochemist and textbook author who has a blog about evolutionary biology called The Sandwalk. Recently he has been posting essay questions which he intends to use in an upcoming test of his students. Quotes from Richard Dawkins and Daniel Den... |
7ec7104a-3ead-4bde-afe5-fbd7be8cbcf9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stupid Questions Open Thread Round 3
From the last thread:
> From Costanza's original thread (entire text):
>
> "This is for anyone in the LessWrong community who has made at least some effort to read the sequences and follow along, but is still confused on some point, and is perhaps feeling a bit embarrassed. Here,... |
ef3d3cd9-7d93-4aac-b8b3-cf051e7ba7da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Monthly Newsletter as Thinking Tool
At the start of 2014 I accidentally started writing a monthly newsletter for a handful of close friends, and I've mostly kept it up since then. It was originally supposed to be kind of commitment device for myself, a way of holding myself accountable to my 2014 goals by commitin... |
f7d406cb-0fd6-46d4-9693-f85a113ba9ab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Bath: Introduction and PredictionBook
Discussion article for the meetup : Bath: Introduction and PredictionBook
WHEN: 19 October 2014 02:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: 5-10 James St W, Avon, Bath BA1 2BX
I'll be hosting a meetup for Bath, UK on Sunday 19th October at 14:00.
The meetup will be held at the King of W... |
525d439e-0f43-433a-8861-fc49c2e0c040 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #82]: How OpenAI Five distributed their training computation
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources [here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/). In particular, you can [sign up](http://eepurl.com/dqMSZj), or look through this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PwWbWZ6FPqAgZWOoOcXM8N_tUCu... |
26d4490f-e721-44de-aaed-a2dae27a1fc1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on nukes, IR, and AI from "Arsenals of Folly" (and other books)
Richard Rhodes’s The Making of the Atomic Bomb has gotten lots of attention in AI circles lately, and it is a great read. I get why the people developing AI find it especially interesting, since a lot of it is about doing science and engineering and... |
79573867-5d85-4174-8587-363c75c183a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Low Fertility is a Degrowth Paradise
“Actually, the problem in the world is that there are too many rich people.”
Paul Ehrlich
Degrowth is an ascendant cultural and political movement. Its central claim is that the growth of humanity’s population and economy is unsustainable on a planet with finite resources. Theref... |
7c7c1c3f-fa30-43b7-baca-8763d5a7a0af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cartesian Frames Definitions
This is a list of the main definitions from Scott Garrabrant's Cartesian Frames sequence. (I'll update it as more posts come out.)
1. Small Cartesian Frames
Let W={w0,w1} for the matrix visualizations below. Let C be an arbitrary Cartesian frame.
visualizationdefinitionnotes0e ( )... |
93d87ab0-b996-41a0-9c1d-c0b80ba1f08f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | A tentative dialogue with a Friendly-boxed-super-AGI on brain uploads
[This is a crosspost from: <https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2TZwQ9JbshCBpq9DC/a-tentative-dialogue-with-a-friendly-boxed-super-agi-on>
*Unnecessary explanation*: Some people asked me why I thought the world of [*Friendship is optimal*](https://www... |
40dd3dd5-02b0-439f-82cd-eb727baa52ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Computational Morality (Part 2) - on the Need for a Dynamic League Table of Proposed Solutions
AGI will, over the course of the next few years, be put to work at national intelligence agencies and in military devices. Some countries will be more careful than others in ensuring that their AGI is safe and moral, but the... |
05b7802d-25f6-4d44-9ff9-0a3db896ab03 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Large Language Models Nuke our Naive Notions of Truth and Reality
When AI can mimic human word strings by “meaningless computation”, what does that say about human word strings?
A Mirror Image? - by Stable Diffusion
The best generative language models like ChatGPT-4 still astonish us with both what they can and ca... |
548ab05a-0a9e-4ae0-80e3-6f05dc1f40d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to express this system for ethically aligned AGI as a Mathematical formula?
I have a graph-based solution for decision-making in situations with multiple agents and stakeholders. I wonder if there's an elegant way to express it as a Mathematical formula.
Background:
I have oriented myself on the "true justified ... |
12c9a893-0c7c-4039-9453-1f288fc3b686 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seasonal Celebrations in the Rationalist Community
See also here for further thoughts I've had on the subject. |
b70b8763-fca6-4938-9446-30c7adfde059 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesianism for Humans
Recently, I completed my first systematic read-through of the sequences. One of the biggest effects this had on me was considerably warming my attitude towards Bayesianism. Not long ago, if you'd asked me my opinion of Bayesianism, I'd probably have said something like, "Bayes' theorem is all we... |
7b590bd8-0558-4f1d-911d-f2b430e71396 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Be impatient
June, 2017: my partner Eve and I are stuck at the visa-on-arrival desk in the domestic transfer wing of Bole International Airport, Addis Ababa. The rest of the transfer passengers, all Ethiopian, are waltzing past us to form a monstrous queue at passport control. As soon as I get my precious stamp, I spr... |
d1d25334-d43d-4e75-b892-c431a9debabe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Infra-Bayesian haggling
Preface
I wrote this post during my scholarship at MATS. My goal is to describe a research direction of the learning theoretic agenda (LTA). Namely, a natural infra-Bayesian learning algorithm proposal that arguably leads to Pareto-optimal solutions in repeated games. The idea originates from V... |
970e79cc-1fe8-47ba-a90f-98d0dc479383 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Petrov Day is September 26
On September 26th, 1983, the world was nearly destroyed by nuclear war. That day is Petrov Day, named for the man who averted it. Petrov Day is now a yearly event on September 26 commemorating the anniversary of the Petrov incident. Last year, Citadel, the Boston-area rationalist house, perf... |
73ce1550-2929-40f8-b8c1-dd911a98e7dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Apprentice Experiment in Python Programming, Part 3
[NOTE TO READERS: WE'VE CONVERTED THIS POST INTO A JUPYTER NOTEBOOK SO YOU CAN CODE ALONG! (THE NOTEBOOK WORKS ON FIREFOX AND CHROME, BUT MAY NOT WORK ON ALL BROWSERS.)] LET US KNOW WHAT YOU THINK!
[Epistemic Status: this post is reconstructed from primarily chat... |
51858f1e-165b-4397-b14e-4c1fc1578a47 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fight the Power
On power grabs, slogans, and how the collapse of authority leads to anxiety which leads to anger which leads to submission which leads to whatever is happening right now.
Cross-posted from Putanumonit.
----------------------------------------
Gurri’s World
> …the elites that ran our institutions ha... |
43bd9307-c8b0-47e6-9399-4a11edeb606b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Procedural Executive Function, Part 3
The Off Road project has since been folded into Rethink Wellbeing, but I’ve continued working to better understand and treat Executive Dysfunction. You can read more about the project’s origins here.
If you haven't, I suggest reading the start of my overview and exploration of Ex... |
16781e1f-00ff-4a99-a57a-681481eca9d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paradoxes in all anthropic probabilities
,,,,,,,,,,,,,
In a previous post, I re-discovered full non-indexical updating (FNC), an anthropic theory I'm ashamed to say I had once known and then forgot. Thanks to Wei Dai for reminding me of that.
There is a problem with FNC, though. In fact, there are problems with all a... |
83b5b383-62d5-4376-9fdd-f3841a18c93a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Will AI avoid exploitation?
As some of you may know, I'm editing a special issue of the journal Philosophical Studies on AI safety (along with @Dan H ). I thought I'd share the first paper from the issue, which deals with some issues in AI safety theory that have been frequently discussed on LessWrong.
Her... |
e06bb171-f593-404b-93ab-389c38909081 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Adopting others' opinions
There are some issues where a) I have no direct knowledge of the facts, b) there is some dispute over the facts, c) I hold an opinion on what the facts are. You probably do too.
For example, I believe that ~6mm Jews were killed in WWII, and that most people who deny this are anti-semites. If... |
3e2f81f0-4e30-4b6d-82d2-84d29d2bba8d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Papers for 2017
I had three new papers either published or accepted into publication last year; all of them are now available online:
* How Feasible is the Rapid Development of Artificial Superintelligence? Physica Scripta 92 (11), 113001.
* Abstract: What kinds of fundamental limits are there in how capable arti... |
963d0383-f30d-4c6d-850c-10ba32e71795 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Superintelligence 11: The treacherous turn
*This is part of a weekly reading group on [Nick Bostrom](http://www.nickbostrom.com/)'s book, [Superintelligence](http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111). For more information about the group, and an index of posts so far see th... |
907fb976-439e-42eb-be43-4a0a885a3b42 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Identifying category representations for complex stimuli using discrete Markov chain Monte Carlo with people.
Identifying category representations for complex stimuli using discrete
Markov chain Monte Carlo with people
Anne S. Hsu1&Jay B. Martin2&Adam N. Sanborn3&Thomas L. Griffiths4
Published online: 13 February 2019... |
1bfc71e7-87fb-4a94-915b-3d5d63b7069e | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Since Robert Pirsig put this very well, I’ll just copy down what he said. I don’t know if this story is based on reality or not, but either way, it’s true. He’d been having trouble with students who had nothing to say. At first he thought it was laziness but later it became apparent that it wasn’t. They just couldn’t ... |
702e4f54-fd18-44d0-a7cb-cd1b57c1ebd9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Einstein's Speed
Today's post, Einstein's Speed was originally published on 21 May 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Albert was unusually good at finding the right theory in the presence of only a small amount of experimental evidence. Even more unusually, he admitted it - he claimed to know ... |
04eaeff3-0f59-463d-8857-ee9e68379936 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Niceness Stealth-Bombing
Epistemic status: Tested in an environment very favorable to its success.
Guys, I know it’s hard to believe and I’m sure very few of us have experience with it, but sometimes the people around us have opinions we think are really stupid.
Fortunately, there’s an easy solution to this problem.... |
1ce0be94-52b9-40b2-a047-3753603dc520 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Training human models is an unsolved problem
I
We can’t write down our precise values any more than we can write down the algorithm we use for judging whether an image contains a cat. If we want an AI to abide by human values, it's going to have to acquire them without us writing them down. We usually think of this i... |
916e1a4b-34d9-4747-ac3a-521bb0019edb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | PSA: The Sequences don't need to be read in sequence
This week, I hung out with the LessWrong team while they talked to relatively new users. New users often had a vague intention to read Eliezer's original Sequences, but were blocked on the size of the project. They thought the Sequences would only work in, well, seq... |
3138888a-9de9-452d-8517-bae308fb09a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Naming and pointer thickness
> Occam’s Razor is often phrased as “The simplest explanation that fits the facts.” Robert Heinlein replied that the simplest explanation is “The lady down the street is a witch; she did it.”
>
> − Occam's Razor, Eliezer Yudkowsky
The point here is that people have confused ideas about w... |
b466ad88-9f1e-4fd2-b144-47b7568c0307 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Gradient Descent: The Ultimate Optimizer
1 Introduction
---------------
Usually we think of using gradient descent to optimize weights and other parameters of neural networks. Differentiable programming languages promise to make arbitrary code differentiable, allowing us to use gradient descent to optimize *any* pr... |
d43cff6b-c3b0-4c4f-9e60-82c756ee30c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Handedness Bias
I just read a blog post on NeuroLogica Blog that could have been a LW post, so I figured that I would bring it on over. It basically details how knowing about our biases can help us correct for them, a la the lens that sees its flaws, and then brings to light a new study (unfortunately behind a paywall... |
da476495-ecdc-460b-9e65-cb44e9a22b08 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting future gains due to post-training enhancements
This work has been done in the context of SaferAI’s work on risk assessment. Equal contribution by Eli and Joel. I'm sharing this writeup in the form of a Google Doc and reproducing the summary below.
Disclaimer: this writeup is context for upcoming experimen... |
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