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402943f4-07be-48aa-8597-9618be14302d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hyperbolic takeoff
The debate over "slow" versus "fast" takeoff is one of the more controversial subjects in the AI safety community. The question is roughly about whether AI development will be more gradual, or whether once an AI achieves what could be called "general intelligence", it will be able to rapidly grow it... |
05ea65a7-13a0-444b-bb86-2271be2f184a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AlphaStar: Impressive for RL progress, not for AGI progress
DeepMind released their AlphaStar paper a few days ago, having reached Grandmaster level at the partial-information real-time strategy game StarCraft II over the summer.
This is very impressive, and yet less impressive than it sounds. I used to watch a lot o... |
937c1e56-3b8d-474b-b3f3-73de3e9d6ed2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Scaling Scaling Laws with Board Games
I Introduction
---------------
There is a concern that the state-of-the-art models studied by the most well-resourced organisations are growing too expensive for other researchers to keep pace [[1](#bib.bibx1), [2](#bib.bibx2), [3](#bib.bibx3)]. Fortunately, the recently-propos... |
6af05d11-ade3-44d0-852a-31baecc8c822 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Community Weekend in Berlin
Discussion article for the meetup : Community Weekend in Berlin
WHEN: 11 April 2014 04:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Grünberger Str. 23, 10243 Berlin
We usually don't announce individual meetups here, but this is an exception! Check the full announcement for details on how to sign up.
... |
7f41b794-cf0d-40d2-80c1-326690177951 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Reply to Eliezer on Biological Anchors
The ["biological anchors" method for forecasting transformative AI](https://www.cold-takes.com/forecasting-transformative-ai-the-biological-anchors-method-in-a-nutshell/) is the biggest non-[trust-based](https://www.cold-takes.com/minimal-trust-investigations/#navigating-trust) i... |
9c49866b-e2bf-4a70-8edd-936595525625 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Improving Safety in Reinforcement Learning Using Model-Based Architectures and Human Intervention
Introduction
------------
Recent progress in AI and Reinforcement Learning (RL) has shown success in learning policies to solve complex tasks such as playing video games from images [[Mnih et al.2015](#bib.bibx6)], or ... |
cb7cb8d0-d88c-4de5-866e-47211777d43f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Quantization Model of Neural Scaling
|
1394c7dc-36c9-4edb-b4e5-9e7c06d064a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Indoor dancing is safe enough
A few weeks ago, before organizing an outdoor contra dance I used microcovid to get an estimate of how risky it was, concluding that it is likely very safe. It's now too cold for outdoor dancing here in Boston, and I'm thinking about how risky indoor dancing would be, with masks and vacci... |
671dadec-6fab-408d-a487-b1fab1fe7523 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fundamentals of Formalisation level 2: Basic Set Theory
Followup to Fundamentals of Formalisation level 1: Basic Logic
Basic Set Theory
The big ideas:
* Axioms of Set Theory
* Set Operations
To move to the next level you need to be able to:
* Explain what a set is.
* Calculate the intersection, union and diff... |
d4948176-2104-4faf-b3fc-e5735eac584b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Loophole for Self-Applicative Soundness
See comments. This is a rediscovery of a result from the 1980's that allow concluding ϕ from □n(ϕ) via a O(n)-length proof, and even the statement that the theory has no disproof of length n or less has a single O(n)-length proof. This is not vulnerable to Critch's Bounded Par... |
ddfcfc2f-c20a-4e91-917b-e67431c1c79f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Superintelligent
Machine performance inside a domain (class of problems) can potentially be:
- Optimal (impossible to do better)
- Strongly superhuman (better than all humans by a significant margin)
- Weakly superhuman (better than all the humans most of the time and most of the humans all of the time)
- Par-human (... |
4dca2e24-9477-4033-934c-0c67fbe6e000 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why You Should Care About Goal-Directedness
Introduction
Deconfusing goal-directedness would boost your favorite research approach for solving AI Alignment.
Why? Because every approach I know of stands to gain from the clarification of goal-directedness, from Prosaic AGI Alignment to Agents Foundations. In turn, this... |
902eb2ca-5b68-47a9-aa0f-dd5b4e0d6a4b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI Safety in a World of Vulnerable Machine Learning Systems
Even the most advanced contemporary machine learning systems are vulnerable to adversarial attack. The safety community has often assumed adversarial robustness to be a problem that will be solved naturally as machine learning (ML) systems grow more capable a... |
61b4e741-3dfa-409c-82f1-3892e1f9cbd9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Murphy’s Quest Ch 13: Existential Risk
FTH: -23335
The first battle is a rout.
Surrounded by a dedicated defensive squad, I pummel the enemy with gigantic balls of death. Negative FTH Heal deals an entirely new category of damage, completely bypassing Damage Reduction. I call it my Bubble of Doom.
After the battle,... |
f23bf1af-628f-441d-ba53-ef203fc66a6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My main problem with utilitarianism
It seems that in the rationalist community there's almost universal acceptance of utilitarianism as basics of ethics. The version that seems most popular goes something like this:
* Everybody has preference function assigning real values (utilons) to states of reality
* Preferenc... |
aff2185c-18c7-46ed-8f55-f524cbfe10fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on Logical Dutch Book Arguments
This post examines the application of Dutch Book arguments to logical uncertainty, as part of an attempt to fill out the ideas I speculated on in this post.
----------------------------------------
An important question we're currently facing is how to relate logical uncertai... |
6d325835-b25d-4864-ae7c-d6bac06abb76 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Another argument that you will let the AI out of the box
Suppose there exist some non-consequentialist moral philosophies which the right arguments could convince you of, with sufficient strength that you would (temporarily, for at least an hour) become a fanatic. This seems a likely assumption, as I know many people ... |
1a69c6b8-8309-438b-af64-afb7976b0715 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Crux List
The Crux List. The original text is included as a backup, but it formats much better on Substack, and I haven’t yet had time to re-format it for WordPress or LessWrong.
Introduction
This post is a highly incomplete list of questions where I either have large uncertainty, have observed strong disagreeme... |
4b816caf-d325-456c-88fe-6ac031dd6e7d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Michael Lewis on Kahneman and Tversky! [link]
http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2011/12/michael-lewis-201112.print |
4d777e40-0671-4dd0-b14e-507ff52c9656 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the future of nootropic drugs? Why can't there be ones more effective than ones that have existed for 15+ years?
So Scott Alexander's post at http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/03/01/2016-nootropics-survey-results/ shows that the most "effective" "nootropics" have still been the ones that have existed for a long t... |
4b6a6871-862b-4aaa-b6ae-b9673eaacf97 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A case study in simulacra levels and the Four Children of the Seder
This was originally going to be a comment on Zvi's excellent post, The Four Children of the Seder as the Simulacra Levels, but it got too long and I thought it warranted its own post.
My cousin's kid is having a tough time lately. He's stealing trink... |
1fd955c8-1b86-4c7d-a0af-68434983eccb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Global Catastrophic Risks Survey
FHI TECHNICAL REPORT
Global Catastrophic Risks Survey
Anders Sandberg
Nick Bostrom
Technical Report #2008- 1
Cite as:
Sandberg, A. & Bostrom, N. (2008): “Global Catastrophic Risks Survey”, Technical
Report #2008 -1, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford Univer... |
6d3321c7-2f1f-454a-8992-475b40a16c6b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is perverse instantiation?
[Perverse instantiation](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BqoE5vhPNCB7X6Say/superintelligence-12-malignant-failure-modes) [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misaligned_goals_in_artificial_intelligence#Perverse_instantiation) fulfilling instructions in a way that undermines the intended o... |
e5ceefe8-3f20-4f6d-bc3a-23ea3a6952fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The master skill of matching map and territory
Robin Hanson tells us to have fewer opinions on things, to specialize and be agnostic about everything outside your field of expertise. This may be good advice, but most of us won't take it. We're too obsessed with being right about stuff, including things we didn't study... |
920d8ed7-3285-4f94-ada2-2c390cb72ce6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Text First, Evidence Later? Managing Quality and Trust in an Era of AI-Augmented Research
It's hardly a secret anymore that researchers across disciplines are increasingly turning to Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT. Initially adopted perhaps for polishing prose or overcoming writer's block, their use has rap... |
d09595e3-3dba-4252-88a4-e46a934d4425 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided
Today's post, Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided, was originally published on 03 March 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Robin Hanson proposed a "banned products shop" where things that the government ordinarily would ban are sold. Eliezer respo... |
c4a8defe-9f90-4470-9c6a-01c16a4630d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking suggestions for EA cash-prize contest
I have grown interested in the cash-prize EA essay contest format that I've seen on LessWrong. I'm interested in sponsoring a 3-essay series of contests, and would appreciate exploratory thoughts and critique. My goal is to make this essay series produce genuinely useful... |
7223f7bc-1343-41fe-a00d-4e4fe7366f5c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Signaling isn't about signaling, it's about Goodhart
***Epistemic status**: Fuzzy conjecture in a faintly mathematically flavored way. Clear intuitions about Gears and a conclusion, but nothing like a formal proof or even formal definitions. Anecdotes offered to clarify the intuition rather than as an attempt at data.... |
20b55fe6-4d4d-41f3-949c-27930c399374 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Grokking “Semi-informative priors over AI timelines”
*Notes:*
* *I give visual explanations for Tom Davidson’s report,* [*Semi-informative priors over AI timelines*](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/semi-informative-priors)*, and summarise the key assumptions and intuitions*
* *The diagrams can be found* [*here*](htt... |
03037cbd-748a-4f16-8840-b6c3edc84f4b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Our Intuitions About The Criminal Justice System Are Screwed Up
> Stop calling it aggression
>
> Ooh, we hate that expression!
> We only want the world to know
> That we support the status quo
> They love us everywhere we go
—Tom Lehrer.
In the modern West, we tend to think of ourselves as very civilized, certainl... |
bbd6e47d-f5ee-4167-bf81-592bd1f6bd7a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI alignment as “navigating the space of intelligent behaviour”
Tl;dr
In this post, I introduce a conceptual tool for thinking about the epistemic landscape of AI alignment and then describe three epistemic strategies for making progress on the alignment problem: 1) tinkering, 2) idealisation and 3) intelligence-in-th... |
9ef92177-88a1-430a-8d36-226ae759170f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Scott Aaronson on Philosophical Progress
[Scott Aaronson](http://www.csail.mit.edu/user/1324) is an Associate Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at MIT. Before that, he did a PhD in computer science a... |
01f528b4-e8b5-4549-bde1-50137f5f7f67 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Whence Your Abstractions?
Today's post, Whence Your Abstractions? was originally published on 20 November 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Figuring out how to place concepts in categories is an important part of the problem. Before we classify AI into the same group as human intelligence, fa... |
6ae4242c-394f-434a-abaf-55a1aa846089 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Why Neural Networks Generalise, and Why They Are (Kind of) Bayesian
Currently, we do not have a good theoretical understanding of how or why neural networks actually work. For example, we know that large neural networks are sufficiently expressive to compute almost any kind of function. Moreover, most functions that f... |
acd5c707-841d-42e4-990c-06cd7901b7a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A non-magical explanation of Jeffrey Epstein
On some level, in order to understand the society they live in, most people have to be conspiracy theorists. Forming correct conspiracy theories is a critical and essential part of understanding politics, international relations, and the justice system. Genuine conspiracies... |
b0ee7e24-94b2-4ec6-832f-d7261307399e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dissolving Confusion around Functional Decision Theory
Summary
Functional Decision Theory (FDT), (see also causal, evidential, timeless, updateless, and anthropic decision theories) recommends taking cooperative, non-greedy actions in twin prisoners dilemmas, Newcombian problems, Parfit’s hitchhiker-like games, and co... |
bd3aee88-0c5d-46c0-bc08-00a68d2387b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | First principles thinking and better, more creative solutions to problems
|
cb4c757d-a41d-497b-bab2-e4188cb4b797 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Improving Mathematical Accuracy in LLMs - History - 1
> "The irrationality of a thing is no argument against its existence, rather a condition of it." - Nietzche
Series Introduction
In recent years, the development and deployment of Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of artificial intelligenc... |
fdf51f92-f460-47b3-8bd3-6aa397df4917 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The map and territory of NFT art
I’ve recently become aware of the world of non-fungible tokens.
Wikipedia puts it as:
> A non-fungible token (NFT) is a special type of cryptographic token which represents something unique; non-fungible tokens are thus not mutually interchangeable.
>
> Non-fungible tokens are used ... |
aaf00ef2-4d9a-4406-a2cf-c41f43446120 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Proposal: Systematic Search for Useful Ideas
LessWrong is a font of good ideas, but the topics and interests usually expressed and explored here tend to cluster over few areas. As such, high-value topics may still be present for the community in other fields which can be systematically explored, rather than waiting fo... |
260f0c94-3b87-4b1c-b046-4dd54e80899f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self-Replication: AI already can do it
What? Damn.
Briefly
A group of researchers from Shanghai recently demonstrated [arXiv:2503.17378v2] that AI agents based on many modern open-source large language models (LLMs) can autonomously replicate and launch complete copies of themselves on other devices. This is very si... |
e6dba46f-3ae1-4eb8-a9d2-4404be6ba60f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intransitive Trust
I.
"Transitivity" is a property in mathematics and logic. Put simply, if something is transitive it means that there's a relationship between things where when x relates to y, and y relates to z, there's the same relationship between x and z. For a more concrete example, think of size. If my car is ... |
b5473f7c-a5a1-4162-afcb-b40521b4a828 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Towards Developmental Interpretability
Developmental interpretability is a research agenda that has grown out of a meeting of the Singular Learning Theory (SLT) and AI alignment communities. To mark the completion of the first SLT & AI alignment summit we have prepared this document as an outline of the key ideas.
As... |
d06882fd-8654-4121-8707-38a03aeb2c1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Crypto loves impact markets: Notes from Schelling Point Bogotá
Thanks to Rhys Lindmark, Noah Chon Lee, Dawn Drescher and Sinclair Chen for assistance with this post.
Last week Dony and I went down to the Schelling Point public goods conference in Bogota, Colombia, where Dony was leading a workshop on impact markets. ... |
cbd99104-9d13-40a1-ac65-eb7802f13aa1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interfaces as a Scarce Resource
Outline:
* The first three sections (Don Norman’s Fridge, Interface Design, and When And Why Is It Hard?) cover what we mean by “interface”, what it looks like for interfaces to be scarce, and the kinds of areas where they tend to be scarce.
* The next four sections apply these ideas... |
44e1cf2e-26b0-46c5-a355-0ea83cbe974b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | What is AI safety? | ZDNet
is our AI future more positive than even
the most ambitious sci-fi riders imagine
I'm Tanya Hall for ZDNet and tech
Republic and joining me is max tegmark
MIT professor and author of live 3.0
welcome max what is the mission of the
future of life Institute you simply want
the future of life t... |
fce00baa-5877-4fab-8d65-6ddecaa7d32a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Group rationality diary, 6/4/12
This is the public group instrumental rationality diary for the week of June 4th. It's a place to record and chat about it if you have done, or are actively doing, things like:
* Established a useful new habit
* Obtained new evidence that made you change your mind about some belief
... |
b4fac5db-2e5e-4c72-9593-2d5f84ad28c4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Artificial intelligence, human rights, democracy, and the rule of law: a primer
ARTIFICIAL
INTELLIGENCE,
HUMAN RIGHTS,
DEMOCRACY, AND
THE RULE OF LAW
DAVID LESLIE, CHRISTOPHER BURR,
MHAIRI AITKEN, JOSH COWLS,
MIKE KATELL, & MORGAN BRIGGS
With a foreword by
LORD TIM CLEMENT-JONESPREPARED TO SUPPORT THE FEASIBILITY ST... |
9b226f17-8c90-4cae-9587-42a5af8fe7af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Cambridge (MA) Saturday meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Cambridge (MA) Saturday meetup
WHEN: 22 October 2011 02:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Cosi Restaurant 290 Main Street, Cambridge, MA
EDIT: Moved from Sunday to Saturday We'll meet at Cosi this time, and migrate to another location after an hour or... |
00be32fe-a5d8-458c-a89c-d399cdbe0632 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne, practical rationality
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne, practical rationality
WHEN: 03 August 2012 07:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 55 walsh st west melbourne 3003 australia
Practical rationality, as distinct from the social and rationality outreach meetups. Look for a social meetup on the... |
e65936e5-d458-42b5-bc5c-b63574278f72 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ken Jennings to give 50% of Watson competiton winnings to VillageReach [link]
http://www-03.ibm.com/press/us/en/pressrelease/33373.wss
http://ken-jennings.com/blog/?p=2464 |
bc30c92e-f7aa-4acb-ae78-2de279de2dc8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | No coinductive datatype of integers
Followup to: What's a "natural number"?
While thinking about how to make machines understand the concept of "integers", I accidentally derived a tiny little math result that I haven't seen before. Not sure if it'll be helpful to anyone, but here goes:
You're allowed to invent an a... |
83a805a0-a59d-4ac1-addb-d8a9ec620d5f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Teaching ML to answer questions honestly instead of predicting human answers
(*Note: very much work in progress, unless you want to follow along with my research you'll probably want to wait for an improved/simplified/clarified algorithm*.)
In this post I consider the particular problem of models learning “predict ho... |
f3d53e91-5252-4bcb-9661-f0aa4d0b27d8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Scaled Autonomy: Enabling Human Operators to Control Robot Fleets
I Introduction
---------------
Sliding autonomy [[5](#bib.bib7 "Sliding autonomy for peer-to-peer human-robot teams"), [10](#bib.bib6 "Adjustable control autonomy for manned space flight"), [4](#bib.bib5 "Dynamic-autonomy for urban search and rescue.... |
151aaeef-5f62-41fb-becb-2b7f4eacc31a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A long reply to Ben Garfinkel on Scrutinizing Classic AI Risk Arguments
In July, Ben Garfinkel scrutinized the classic AI Risk arguments in a 158 minute-long interview with 80000 hours, which I strongly recommend.
I have formulated a reply, and recorded 80 minutes of video, as part of two presentations in the AISafet... |
d1d99e3e-90ce-42ab-9166-d19c3acde829 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Origins of the Lab Mouse
By Alex Telford for Asimov Press.
It was 1905, and the French biologist Lucien Cuénot had a puzzle on his hands. He had been breeding mice in an attempt to decipher the patterns of coat color inheritance, but one of his crosses wasn’t behaving as expected. When Cuénot bred heterozygous yellow... |
49157a1a-3cde-4202-b865-197ee6c31c6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is a problem?
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/what-is-a-problem/
----------------------------------------
I originally posed this idea in my list of short stubs. Under that heading I briefly outlined:
What is a problem - On the path of problem solving, understanding what a problem is will help you to un... |
4cf51a65-3476-4cd1-98ff-104e0882745e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rational Toothpaste: A Case Study
Inspired by Konkvistador's comment
Posts titled "Rational ___-ing" or "A Rational Approach to ____" induce groans among a sizeable contingent here, myself included. However, inflationary use of "rational" and its transformation into an applause light is only one part of the problem. ... |
9ffde7c4-d240-433c-9124-9b1879ca4999 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Parameter counts in Machine Learning
**In short:** we have compiled information about the date of development and trainable parameter counts of n=139 machine learning systems between 1952 and 2021. This is, as far as we know, the biggest public dataset of its kind. You can access our dataset [here](https://docs.google... |
5b95948e-f803-4044-9935-8709154f20fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Less Wrong! (6th thread, July 2013)
If you've recently joined the Less Wrong community, please leave a comment here and introduce yourself. We'd love to know who you are, what you're doing, what you value, how you came to identify as an aspiring rationalist or how you found us. You can skip right to that if... |
912b25ca-e48f-4342-a351-955ef1534948 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Why are counterfactuals elusive?
*Produced as part of* [*SERI MATS 3.0*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/iR4kGzrWEJpXJ39ZB/seri-mats-program-winter-2022-cohort)*. Thanks to Vivek Hebbar and Paul Colognese for discussion.*
***TL;DR** (spoiler)**:***
Behind the problem of human counterfactuals creeps the problem ... |
6134fe7e-d209-491b-95be-6462de64eae0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Interactive Explanations: Diagnosis and Repair of Reinforcement Learning Based Agent Behaviors
I Introduction
---------------
Fig. 1: Our interactive explanations framework.
Creating ... |
23e3464f-ac06-432d-8d5d-89d21f9e7968 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Practically A Book Review: Appendix to "Nonlinear's Evidence: Debunking False and Misleading Claims" (ThingOfThings)
Subtitle: Taking nonprescription amphetamines across the U.S.-Mexico border is a felony
I haven't followed the controversy long enough to be able to tell how correct Ozy is, but what I like about this ... |
0284f89e-eaf0-4f03-9376-b2188f54c408 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Tale of Alice Almost: Strategies for Dealing With Pretty Good People
Suppose you value some virtue V and you want to encourage people to be better at it. Suppose also you are something of a “thought leader” or “public intellectual” — you have some ability to influence the culture around you through speech or writ... |
66a3d461-16e7-4f56-bb50-89e3b61be8dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Assumed Intent Bias
Summary: when thinking about the behavior of others, people seem to have a tendency to assume clear purpose and intent behind it. In this post I argue that this assumption of intent quite often is incorrect, and that a lot of behavior exists in a gray area where it’s easily influenced by subcon... |
b35ae57f-1e39-4c3b-b20d-4252d5bcf27d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interview
Answers to interesting questions from Colin Marshall.
|
a9890449-634b-4a74-b618-50683215cda5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Berkeley meetup: 5-minute exercises
Discussion article for the meetup : Berkeley meetup: 5-minute exercises
WHEN: 15 January 2014 07:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 2030 Addison, Berkeley, CA
At today's meetup, I want to try a kind of exercise I learned / shamelessly stole from User:apophenia . The idea is to try a... |
a88908a1-a6ac-4e1d-aa42-7e7da27fbab5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hedging omicron impact to supply chains
China is struggling to contain Omicron. This might cause major disruptions to supply chains globally. Does anyone have a sufficiently detailed model on what are the consequences of this and how it could be possible to hedge your portfolio? |
8b489825-c4c8-450d-9017-ac2d0df8a519 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | GPT-4 Plugs In
GPT-4 Right Out of the Box
In some ways, the best and worst thing about GPT-4 was its cutoff date of September 2021. After that date it had no access to new information, and it had no ability to interact with the world beyond its chat window.
As a practical matter, that meant that a wide range of use ... |
cfe82362-4454-4fdd-8c50-a049093e2229 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dealing with Administrative Stress
By Administrative Stress, I refer to the stress caused in dealing with filling forms, applications, talking to bureaucracies, and so on. This has caused me a lot of stress in the past and I've lost several opportunities because of my aversion in dealing with this. Over time I've beco... |
d8d69649-bbc8-484b-a5b2-84b8906e669f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kinect self-awareness-hack (why Friendliness is crucial)
A hilarious sketch about AI from CollegeHumor at http://bit.ly/i96EzL
|
d45e046a-83d4-4df8-b01a-1ac9fd3bbff3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Failure Looks Like: Distilling the Discussion
The comments under a post often contains valuable insights and additions. They are also often very long and involved, and harder to cite than posts themselves. Given this, I was motivated to try to distill some comment sections on LessWrong, in part to start exploring... |
ace6cf7c-de9e-41d8-a0ef-d723d5892262 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Alignment Problem from a Deep Learning Perspective (major rewrite)
We've recently uploaded a major rewrite of Richard Ngo's:
[The Alignment Problem from a Deep Learning Perspective](https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.00626)
We hope it can reach ML researchers by being more grounded in the deep learning literature and e... |
1435dd84-7963-4f32-87b0-3915eb7a20c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why DRL doesn't work for arbitrary environments
% operators that are separated from the operand by a space
% autosize deliminaters
% operators that require brackets
% operators that require parentheses
% Paper specific
Previously, I presented the theory of DRL for finite MDPs. Now, alt... |
890afc95-c6a6-46e2-9596-50a512a9a497 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Meetup - April
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Meetup - April
WHEN: 23 April 2014 07:30:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: Sydney City RSL, 565 George St, Sydney, Australia 2000
We're going well, so fourth meetup, here we come!
6:30 PM for early discussion 7PM general dinner-discussion after dinner we'... |
64290654-baaf-45df-af78-6498da333307 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | The promise of AI with Demis Hassabis - DeepMind: The Podcast (S2, Ep9)
welcome back to the final episode in
this season of the deep mind podcast and
boy have we covered a lot of ground
from protein folding ais to sarcastic
language models sauntering robots
synthetic voices and much more it has
been quite the journey
... |
770bc039-ba50-4baf-a4ac-d59057ca5f49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I'm Optimistic About Near-Term AI Risk
I'm not worried about AI posing an existential risk in the next 10-20 years. Recent developments in AI capabilities actually make me feel more optimistic about this. The fact that relatively simple models can perform a wide array of tasks suggests that we can build satisfacto... |
70a43fa8-fb76-40db-ac97-a1dd43cf43a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Incremental Progress and the Valley
Yesterday I said: "Rationality is systematized winning"
"But," you protest, "the reasonable person doesn't always win!"
What do you mean by this? Do you mean that every week or two, someone who bought a lottery ticket with negative expected value, wins the lottery and becomes mu... |
834fb896-1da6-41aa-b93d-70d5edfc7460 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Drug addicts and deceptively aligned agents - a comparative analysis
Co-authored by Nadia Mir-Montazeri and Jan Kirchner.
Addicts and AIs
---------------
*A young man, let’s call him Dave*[[1]](#fn-AW6MyNPwftwBjBckj-1)*, starts consuming different kinds of illegal drugs (mostly heroin) as early as age 14, as a rea... |
6df751e3-de02-45f7-a94c-986dd60a8247 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Solomonoff induction still works if the universe is uncomputable, and its usefulness doesn't require knowing Occam's razor
Note: I don't think this idea is original, but I couldn't find a good post going over the implications.
I used to think that Solomonoff induction was a bit arbitrary for the following reason: it ... |
e929dbcf-e4a4-4957-80e4-92ea279e8c32 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Risks from Learned Optimization: Conclusion and Related Work
*This is the fifth of five posts in the [Risks from Learned Optimization Sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/r9tYkB2a8Fp4DN8yB) based on the paper “[Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems](https://arxiv.org/abs/1906.01820... |
d7be3d01-d1ea-434f-a458-3310aa2a5ff8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Living Large - availability of life
"Q: Doctor, if I do not eat much, drink vodka or have women, will I live long? A: Sure, but why?" - bad joke poorly translated from Russian.
Summary: Can traditional measures of living create anchoring/availability bias?
I have seen a few studies like this one in the news:
http://... |
10966294-13ab-4fcf-8500-f9d49f3ed34c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Act into Fear and Abandon all Hope
The first time I received truly life-changing advice was when a friend pointed me in the direction of David Allen’s Getting Things Done. I was in the middle of getting my graduate degree, struggling to keep up with the demands of school, teaching, friends, and romance, and although I... |
fe71b194-ec32-40c3-b7ca-5f4958ec92f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Content Features Aren't Enough for Detecting Toxicity. One Needs User Features.
Take it from a soldier on the front lines of the war on bad posts: You can't catch all the bad posts just by reading them. You need to look at who's making the posts.
Every social media company knows this. I don't know if OpenAI knows it ... |
e85edf2d-acd5-4f76-bded-6ee74a9b9b31 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Strevens on scientific explanation
This post discusses two books by Michael Strevens: The Knowledge Machine: How Irrationality Created Modern Science and Thinking Off Your Feet: How Empirical Psychology Vindicates Armchair Philosophy. I loved the former, which tries to answer the core question in philosophy of science... |
05c81435-41b9-4a3c-8f15-be818df82f11 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The consequentialist case for social conservatism, or “Against Cultural Superstimuli”
This essay was requested by the highly qualified rationalist and extremely-sex-positive Paul Crowley, who (like me) is frustrated by the absolute refusal of certain political groups to explain their actual ideas rather than shout at ... |
66fee991-121b-4ac5-8812-b5264de31a0f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Vision-Language Models are Zero-Shot Reward Models for Reinforcement Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Training reinforcement learning (RL) agents to perform complex tasks in vision-based domains can be difficult, due to high costs associated with reward specification.
Manually specifying reward functions fo... |
f8a4030e-95f2-463e-bc80-2b36a5189944 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My thoughts on the Beff Jezos - Connor Leahy debate
Link:
Personal note: I'm somewhat in between safetyism and e/acc in terms of their general ideologies/philosophies. I don't really consider myself a part of either group. My view on AI x-risk is that AI can be potentially an existential threat, but we're nowher... |
41fd0f1f-534a-42d0-adca-fc34b8746b46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Surprising examples of non-human optimization
I am very much interested in examples of non-human optimization processes producing working, but surprising solutions. What is most fascinating is how they show human approach is often not the only one and much more alien solutions can be found, which humans are just not c... |
7e5f55b5-4042-4562-910d-f294dff27b80 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | An Elementary Introduction to Infra-Bayesianism
This is my attempt to summarize Infra-Bayesianism probability theory at a level approaching "high school class in probability", as opposed to the "math-major class in probability theory" of the original. I aimed to focus on including simple exercises (with answers given ... |
5996ad7f-17c5-467a-a7b3-b9f7fa9aab69 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Desensitizing Deepfakes
There is some discussion on the forum about using AI to detect whether or not something is a deepfake, and perhaps some trust in anti-deepfake bots to be better resourced etc. in this arms race. But could we give ourselves a bit of breathing room here?
Could it be incredibly valuable to accele... |
981483e7-2860-4e74-9bfc-d7d93d3fb1d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Failed AI Safety Research Projects (Q1/Q2 2025)
This year I've been on sabbatical, and have spent my time upskilling in AI Safety. Part of that is doing independent research projects in different fields.
Some of those items have resulted in useful output, notably A Toy Model of the U-AND Problem, Do No Harm? and S... |
14701255-d57d-4db9-ac07-8b0dd995de58 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Productivity tips for those low on motivation
Lately, I've been in a months-long motivation slump. This has given me the opportunity to gain a few insights about how to get more done with less motivation:
1. If I have an idea for something I could do (like I had the idea to write this post), strongly consider doing ... |
af1d81a1-3f15-4281-8c91-128ef61d3b12 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Weekly Meetup: How To Actually Change Your Mind (part 3)
Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Weekly Meetup: How To Actually Change Your Mind (part 3)
WHEN: 01 May 2016 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Performing Arts and Humanities Bldg Room 456, 1000 Hilltop Cir, Baltimore, MD 21... |
0bc0432b-63cc-4acb-ba7e-84a862ef8428 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Report on modeling evidential cooperation in large worlds
I have published a report on modeling evidential cooperation in large worlds. I originally started working on the report during a CEA Summer Research Fellowship back in 2018 and have now finally found the time to finish it. The report itself is 75 pages long, b... |
bf5a5190-53f9-454b-a9d4-f2a00b6196fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC fun and games meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC fun and games meetup
WHEN: 26 January 2014 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC 20001, USA
We'll be meeting to hang out and play games. (Sorry for the late notice, I forgot that the Learn-To-... |
8177afc2-54cc-4d81-9f51-1d9f00077ba8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Leave a Line of Retreat
> When you surround the enemy
>
> Always allow them an escape route.
>
> They must see that there is
>
> An alternative to death.
>
> —Sun Tzu, The Art of War
> Don’t raise the pressure, lower the wall.
>
> —Lois McMaster Bujold, Komarr
I recently happened into a conversation with a nonr... |
303217a1-96d9-4793-a3a2-a16f10e6592d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Beginner’s guide to reducing s-risks [link-post]
The Center on Long-Term Risk recently posted an updated introduction to s-risks on our website.
> Suffering risks, or s-risks, are “risks of events that bring about suffering in cosmically significant amounts” (Althaus and Gloor 2016). This article will discuss why th... |
6ef215d0-1ee4-4402-babb-d42b79c8de7f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Getting started independently in AI Safety
Drop the constraints. It’s great to have a mentor, a lab and lots of compute. But what if all you have is time and motivation?
I think too many people feel held back from doing a project like thing on their own. Getting the prerequisites in maths, probabilities, software is ... |
e65bc394-114d-46aa-ab62-82c17abca1ca | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | MMLU’s Moral Scenarios Benchmark Doesn’t Measure What You Think it Measures
In examining the low performance of Large Language Models(LLMs)on the Moral Scenarios task, part of the widely-used MMLU benchmark by Hendrycks et al., we found surprising results. When presented with moral scenarios individually, the accuracy... |
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