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9e30ded6-efc2-40bc-9849-1c5c3e85f56d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Publication biases toward shorter predictions
We expect predictions that [human-level AI](http://aiimpacts.org/human-level-ai/ "Human-Level AI") will come sooner to be recorded publicly more often, for a few reasons. Public statements are probably more optimistic than surveys because of such effects. The difference ap... |
166ce573-4959-4635-b81c-720f260bf937 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An exploration of exploitation bias
This is a map of Nassau Street, the northern edge of Princeton University.
It’s a very standard sort of street; I imagine one quite like it exists in most college towns. It has lots of great places to eat, shown on the map in orange.
During my senior year, because of Princeton’s a... |
10cf780d-c29b-4ef2-9325-b3ad90c42bf8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ideoculture
> Two young fish are swimming along and they happen to meet an older fish swimming the other way, who nods at them and says “Morning, boys. How’s the water?” And the two young fish swim on for a bit, and then eventually one of them looks over at the other and goes “What the hell is water?”
>
> -David Fost... |
f000cd5a-1cdc-47a8-aba4-06aab57aabe8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Elevated Air Purifier Cubes
I've been a big proponent of box fan air purifier cubes, but they are bulky and fragile. If your ceiling is 8ft+, elevating them is an attractive option:
I made two of these for my dad's house this afternoon. The goal is for them to be out-of-the-way, and easy to turn on any time he has ... |
db0a1fc3-561c-45c5-a75b-ea7881e9384f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reasons for Punishment
This post is meant to be a catalog of the main categories of reasons given for why people who do bad things should be punished. I hope to use this as a basis for future posts.
This isn't meant to analyse their internal motives for punishing people, but their stated socially acceptable reasons ... |
04325393-a1ab-459b-a11a-558458ad5623 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | how 2 tell if ur input is out of distribution given only model weights
(Hastily-written code to reproduce these findings is available here. It also contains some extraneous logic.) |
ce5b1fb2-135a-404d-b48c-0407cf72e290 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The virtual AI within its virtual world
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
In a previous post, I talked about an AI operating only on a virtual world (ideas like this used to be popular, until it was realised the AI might still want to take control of the real world to affect the virtual world; however, ... |
bb085275-f653-487b-98e8-58b672ce064e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I am not a longtermist (May 2022)
[Posting verbatim my blog post from a year ago since it might be relevant to this audience, and I hope it could generate a good discussion. As far as I can tell, cross-posting old material is OK here, though do let me know if not, and I will delete it. I do not intend to cross-pos... |
6e745cdc-f2cf-4ce8-ac98-17da137724f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I am a Memoryless System
Author's Note: this is my entry for the Edit Your Source Code Contest. I am an undergrad student at RIT, NY.
commit 85a4c4f37966a739e88c0a4c70946bd4 (HEAD -> master)
Author: demo
Date: Thu Oct 27 09:38:12 2022 -0400
Initial mind state
I'm sitting in Intro Psych on a Thursday, I think, and I... |
ba49994d-d79d-4f98-82af-26ccf284a8ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Which personality traits are real? Stress-testing the lexical hypothesis
This post is also available on my Substack. Thanks to Justis Mills for proofreading and feedback!
Most scientific personality models are, directly or indirectly[1], based on the lexical hypothesis, which roughly speaking states that there is a c... |
12d7d231-a66a-41a3-ba63-65fbf60287f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The AI's Toolbox: From Soggy Toast to Optimal Solutions
In a limited array of tools, there is one optimal tool to use.
For this example, let’s take the task of hammering a nail into a wall, and the only two tools available to us are a soggy piece of toast and a silver spoon. For the given task, the spoon will be s... |
741eee6f-82c4-4d50-8b5e-be16708b1fa6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Canberra: Paranoid Debating
Discussion article for the meetup : Canberra: Paranoid Debating
WHEN: 12 July 2014 06:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 108 North Road, Acton, ACT
We didn't get around to paranoid debating in the last meetup, so I thought that we might do it at this one. So that the 'mole' knows the answer... |
d7020378-5753-4bbd-9b65-5b5c5ddc8700 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : London This Sunday
Discussion article for the meetup : London This Sunday
WHEN: 16 October 2011 02:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Africa House/64-68 Kingsway, London, WC2B 6BG
We're meeting up in London this weekend. Sunday 16th October, at 2pm, in the Shakespeares Head on Kingsway near Holborn Tube station. We're... |
49d1d17a-b0fb-4ac6-99c0-a5822c1ff671 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Balance Between Hard Work and Exhaustion
Rationalists often find difficult, important challenges to work on and they become very excited and passionate about their causes. I expect it is common (because it happened to me and I have heard references to similar episodes by others) that such causes seem so important ... |
f90769e6-4dd4-4c31-a4f3-640b425ed70e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Useful Things Volunteers Can Do Right Now
Per Kaj's suggestion, I'm posting my list of useful things volunteers can do right now. Without help, most of these things won't occur, because I need to be spending my time writing papers, promoting the Singularity Summit, collaborating with other researchers, improving Singu... |
2962b11e-039c-49b2-9eee-775f86a9d4cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups: Austin, Berlin, Brussels, Chicago, Madison, Melbourne, Washington DC
This summary was posted to LW main on October 12th, and has been moved to discussion. The more recent meetup summary is here.
There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in:
* (Chicago) Zendo in the West Loop: 12... |
76a231e6-953c-4faf-a219-97881a955f7d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Proposal for making credible commitments to AIs.
Acknowledgments: The core scheme here was suggested by Prof. Gabriel Weil.
There has been growing interest in the dealmaking agenda: humans make deals with AIs (misaligned but lacking decisive strategic advantage) where they promise to be safe and useful for some fixed... |
a04715c0-2b11-40ba-bdc0-efd728f42ec1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Who owns artificial intelligence? A preliminary analysis of corporate intellectual property strategies and why they matter.
WORKING PAPER
Who owns artificial intelligence? A preliminary analysis
of corporate intellectual property strategies and why
they matter
Nathan Calvin and Jade Leung1
Centre for the Govern... |
5492602c-0920-46d3-94e4-7f0ec1d2646c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | John Ioannidis: Why Most Clinical Research Is Not Useful (2016)
|
3f93f1f4-ddf0-4960-9091-a5a5fd93a6e3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI Value Alignment Speaker Series Presented By EA Berkeley
**AI Value Alignment Speaker Series**
**Presented By EA Berkeley**
Value alignment, roughly speaking, is the problem of ensuring that AI agents behave in a manner consistent with the values of their human principals. This modern incarnation of the principal-... |
71f10078-d960-4016-bec4-a7edcc147c95 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why you can't treat decidability and complexity as a constant (Post #1)
Or, why you need to fix a machine before you can prove anything, and you also need to fix the constraints on the machine. This also holds importantly for problems claimed to be decidable or undecidable by algorithms.
Basically, the reason here is... |
2d982b38-b5cd-458c-af28-14920ab52095 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When can a mimic surprise you? Why generative models handle seemingly ill-posed problems
Thanks to Chris Leong and Nora Belrose for their feedback. This is meant to be part of an entry to the Future Fund AI Worldview Competition, but a later post is intended to address the competition questions head on.
In this post... |
487b9c3a-f580-4b4a-a50d-a5c53404cabb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learning Impact in RL
I present a simple Deep-RL flavour idea for learning an agent's impact that I'm thinking of trying out. I don't, ATM, think it's very satisfying from a safety point of view, but I think it's at least a bit relevant, so I'm posting here for feedback, iyi.
IDEA: Instead of learning
P(st+1|st,at)
... |
d99f86ba-3ed6-44a7-8155-17c36d321a5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reversed Stupidity Is Not Intelligence
> “. . . then our people on that time-line went to work with corrective action. Here.”
>
> He wiped the screen and then began punching combinations. Page after page appeared, bearing accounts of people who had claimed to have seen the mysterious disks, and each report was more f... |
22532f2f-018c-48b5-b455-f90252585db1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Can corrigibility be learned safely?
EDIT: Please note that the way I use the word "corrigibility" in this post isn't quite how Paul uses it. See [this thread](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/o22kP33tumooBtia3/can-corrigibility-be-learned-safely#jo2cwbB3WK7KyGjpy) for clarification.
This is mostly a reply to Paul Chr... |
df924750-1f4e-44f3-a384-ebc21284ea55 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Neural nets designing neural nets
|
ca4146af-e965-4451-9d6f-231742862251 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's the difference between newer Atari-playing AI and the older Deepmind one (from 2014)?
My impression was that thing that put Deepmind on the map was an AI that could play multiple Atari games. Lately there's been new Atari-playing AI (both from Deepmind and other companies) that are making the news. Are they doi... |
0fc37cb7-8a13-4466-8e1f-8d7520aa6b3e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Towards formalizing universality
The scalability of [iterated amplification](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1810.08575.pdf) or [debate](https://arxiv.org/abs/1805.00899) seems to depend on whether large enough teams of humans can carry out arbitrarily complicated reasoning. Are these schemes “universal,” or are there kinds of ... |
6a133044-c874-4461-a69c-d2abb723e2ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Massachusetts Lyme Reporting
In putting together yesterday's post on Lyme disease prevalence I noticed something very strange with Massachusetts:
It's even more striking if you look at a map (2018):
There's no way Lyme follows state borders like this; it has to be some sort of data issue.
Looking over several y... |
0f8b9644-6e82-4e79-9fab-fa739f4b23cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prediction markets and Taxes
(Epistemic status: This is super trivial information)
(Note 2: there is a timely Culture war issue that triggered this post but I will not be mentioning any Culture war issues in this post)
Imagine you worked for the US mint, and somebody was betting that a coin you manufactured was un... |
7abfd349-fde1-42fa-aa95-e1835b1f462b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Your genome isn't private. Maybe it never was.
None |
3e131538-1488-4df6-ba36-b3510608cfa4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Methods of defense against AGI manipulation
Introduction
With the advent of AGI systems (e.g. Agent-4 from the AI2027 scenario), the risk of human manipulation is becoming one of the major threats posed by AI.
In this paper, I propose options that can be used to protect operators from psychological attacks by AGI o... |
39d96bef-28c7-4c33-ac68-72098275c050 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Believing in things you cannot see
(Cross-posted from Hands and Cities)
There is a scene at the end of the movie Tenet, in which the main character accuses the villain of solipsism:
> Protagonist: “You don’t believe in a God, or a future, or in anything outside of your own experience!”
>
> Villain: “The rest is bel... |
825c721a-c094-4832-8fce-db13e8e5069a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book review and policy discussion: diversity and complexity
This is a linkpost for equilibria.club
Diversity and complexity - Scott E. Page.
Introduction
It is time for the first book review on Equilibria Club! The book is filled to the brim with models and ideas about diversity and complexity, each of which ... |
7ee79d82-7ad8-4ef7-b88f-970e0ccf9efd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Would the world be better off without 50% of the people in it?
I made a stupid mistake of posting a conclusion before I had the whole analysis typed up or had looked up my references. I knew I would be called on it. I’ll appreciate any help with the <ref>'s. Also: I'm under Crocker's Rules, and criticism is welcome. S... |
1d0085de-e9b1-4fe3-b074-01f104ca4cf3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What are the numbers in mind for the super-short AGI timelines so many long-termists are alarmed about?
*I also asked* [*this question on the Effective Altruism Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/RSqKQXwmrK6mFGB32/what-are-the-numbers-in-mind-for-the-super-short-agi)*. One* [*informative answer*](https:... |
d5821ee0-9b94-4e0b-beae-aaba5790e666 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Paper] Hidden in Plain Text: Emergence and Mitigation of Steganographic Collusion in LLMs
This research was completed for London AI Safety Research (LASR) Labs 2024 by Yohan Mathew, Ollie Matthews, Robert McCarthy and Joan Velja. The team was supervised by Nandi Schoots and Dylan Cope (King’s College London, Imperial... |
aaf649ef-a501-44db-a2a2-c7a699e66585 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mode Collapse and the Norm One Principle
[Epistemic status: I assign a 70% chance that this model proves to be useful, 30% chance it describes things we are already trying to do to a large degree, and won't cause us to update much.]
I'm going to talk about something that's a little weird, because it uses some result... |
7eeafee1-b9c6-4f0a-8cfc-2294c227eaef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Weekly Meetup: How To Actually Change Your Mind (part 2)
Discussion article for the meetup : Baltimore / UMBC Weekly Meetup: How To Actually Change Your Mind (part 2)
WHEN: 24 April 2016 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Performing Arts and Humanities Bldg Room 456, 1000 Hilltop Cir, Baltimore, MD ... |
a3efe45f-96b5-4aab-9a26-b6630ef1b7b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : LW Australia Mega-Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : LW Australia Mega-Meetup
WHEN: 09 May 2014 05:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Kanangra Drive, Gwandalan NSW 2259
The organisers of LW Melbourne, LW Sydney, and LW Canberra are elated to announce the first-ever Less Wrong Australia Mega-Meetup!
What: Ratio... |
6b505a4c-c8b0-4601-b6bf-1b68eae3436c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Education not meant for mass-consumption
Say you wanted to raise a genius. How would you go about doing that?
Assuming that your starting with an above average intelligence child with a greater likelihood of naturally becoming a "genius", can appropriate environmental/educational interventions substantially increase ... |
c60205ce-522d-42e3-9d3c-290b2ceb1588 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Working hurts less than procrastinating, we fear the twinge of starting
When you procrastinate, you're probably not procrastinating because of the pain of working.
How do I know this? Because on a moment-to-moment basis, being in the middle of doing the work is usually less painful than being in the middle of procra... |
a1a14d4a-6578-42f6-88a8-5a58a623b372 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality quotes: May 2010
This is our monthly thread for collecting these little gems and pearls of wisdom, rationality-related quotes you've seen recently, or had stored in your quotesfile for ages, and which might be handy to link to in one of our discussions.
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they c... |
f7153672-ba5b-4511-9df4-ea499106b4b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 1-2pm is for ???
I left myself a cryptic note for trying some lifestyle habit a few weeks ago, and can no longer recall its meaning. Here's the note in its entirety:
> 1-2pm
Any suggestions for what's best done at 1-2pm? I feel like (70%) it has something to do with diet or exercise (but not napping). I'm half hopin... |
4d4f7196-447c-4c91-a2d7-bf654d016d6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW Women Entries- Creepiness
Standard Intro
The following section will be at the top of all posts in the LW Women series.
Several months ago, I put out a call for anonymous submissions by the women on LW, with the idea that I would compile them into some kind of post. There is a LOT of material, so I am breaking the... |
97659314-a0ef-4eac-8d62-f74623c76595 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Divergent preferences and meta-preferences
Crossposted at the Intelligent Agents Forum.
In simple graphical form, here is the problem of divergent human preferences:
Here the AI either chooses A or ¬A, and as a consequence, the human then chooses B or ¬B.
There are a variety of situations in which this is or isn'... |
aec96322-e9d0-4119-8aa7-73fefda877a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Darwin Game - Rounds 1 to 2
Edit 2020-11-13. This unofficial version of the game is missing AbstractSpyTreeBot.
Rounds 1-2
MeasureBot and EarlyBirdMimicBot shoot to the top of the populations. Not coincidentally, these are the two bots which exploit zero-days. I already did a write-up of Multicore's EarlyBirdM... |
f3c4f2ac-5c3f-4928-9af5-3a80121c0238 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less exploitable value-updating agent
My indifferent value learning agent design is in some ways too good. The agent transfer perfectly from u maximisers to v maximisers - but this makes them exploitable, as Benja has pointed out.
For instance, if u values paperclips and v values staples, and everyone knows that the ... |
eff3c184-6d1b-41dd-993d-563763c5bf86 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pancritical Rationalism Can Apply to Preferences and Behavior
ETA: As stated below, criticizing beliefs is trivial in principle, either they were arrived at with an approximation to Bayes' rule starting with a reasonable prior and then updated with actual observations, or they weren't. Subsequent conversation made it... |
7ba40e22-a0ea-49f8-b508-ed7a59cec969 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the importance of Less Wrong, or another single conversational locus
Epistemic status: My actual best bet. But I used to think differently; and I don't know how to fully explicate the updating I did (I'm not sure what fully formed argument I could give my past self, that would cause her to update), so you should p... |
1687261f-f5df-4f37-a859-784e507429f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hufflepuff Cynicism on Crocker's Rule
Yesterday, I mainly talked about Hufflepuff Cynicism from the cynic's end. However, there's a lot to be said about the receiving end. Hufflepuff cynicism can come off as a very patronizing strategy. Is this a point against it?
In the original conversation where I came up with the... |
b275705a-ed92-42a2-8f79-f1b661704edf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Counter-considerations on AI arms races
(Work done at Convergence Analysis. Mateusz wrote the post and is responsible for the outline of the argument, many details of which crystallized in conversations with Justin. Thanks to Olga Babeeva for the feedback on this post.)
1. Introduction: Clarifying the DSA-AI theses
... |
630f52c4-7376-4515-a5af-0de4ea48335a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Applying traditional economic thinking to AGI: a trilemma
Traditional economics thinking has two strong principles, each based on abundant historical data:
* Principle (A): No “lump of labor”: If human population goes up, there might be some wage drop in the very short term, because the demand curve for labor slopes... |
1e660481-d224-4a09-b6d6-fd073d9bc368 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Transitive negotiations with counterfactual agents
The main purpose of this post is to make the following minor observation: If an agents only acausally trade with other agents that they believe actually possibly exist, they can still end up effectively trading with agents that they know to be counterfactual. This is ... |
d8cd80c7-b503-4528-af85-0e9f4adf8f80 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mid-conditional love
People talk about unconditional love and conditional love. Maybe I’m out of the loop regarding the great loves going on around me, but my guess is that love is extremely rarely unconditional. Or at least if it is, then it is either very broadly applied or somewhat confused or strange: if you love ... |
28664192-0567-47d8-be04-f17486987dd2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moral Illusions
The interesting thing about optical illusions is that one may be aware of the illusion, yet, it does not go away.
It seems that the lines on the picture have different lengths even though one positively knows that they are exactly the same.
Now consider this statement:
> Until January 2016, all ni... |
ee8264a4-55aa-47a6-8032-d0601eaee2e1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Visualizing and Measuring the Geometry of BERT
1 Introduction
---------------
Neural networks for language processing have advanced rapidly in recent years. A key breakthrough was the introduction of transformer architectures Vaswani ([2017](#bib.bib26)). One recent system based on this idea, BERT Devlin ([2018](#b... |
6856907b-4f16-460a-bc08-fd666d53bddc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Meta Decision Theory and Newcomb's Problem
Hi all,
As part of my PhD I've written a paper developing a new approach to decision theory that I call Meta Decision Theory. The idea is that decision theory should take into account decision-theoretic uncertainty as well as empirical uncertainty, and that, once we acknowl... |
f5bb1d8e-5a1b-4d51-a9b9-8d0371b66dfe | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A Longlist of Theories of Impact for Interpretability
I hear a lot of different arguments floating around for exactly how mechanistically interpretability research will reduce x-risk. As an interpretability researcher, forming clearer thoughts on this is pretty important to me! As a preliminary step, I've compiled a l... |
b86501e6-e6c0-4d09-80fe-738239966ffe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Site Update] Weekly/Monthly/Yearly on All Posts
Last week, our friends over at the EA Forum coded a new feature for the /allPosts page – in addition to the daily view, you can now view posts by weekly, monthly and yearly. (Thanks JP!)
This is most exciting when you also set the sorting to "top karma", making it an e... |
ebe9d0a8-183b-4a5f-8010-78d406411038 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agisf | AGI Safety Fund | More Is Different for AI
Machine learning is touching increasingly many aspects of our society, and its effect will only continue to grow. Given this, I and many others care about risks from future ML systems and how to mitigate them.
When thinking about safety risks from ML, there are two common approaches, which I... |
9032c290-e783-4575-a85d-ab457bb7c006 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two Alternatives to Logical Counterfactuals
The following is a critique of the idea of logical counterfactuals. The idea of logical counterfactuals has appeared in previous agent foundations research (especially at MIRI): here, here. "Impossible possible worlds" have been considered elsewhere in the literature; see th... |
e720412c-c5f0-479a-8439-ccaad013a4f4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Unexpected Clanging
There are two boxes in front of you. In one of them, there is a little monkey with a cymbal, whilst the other box is empty. In precisely one hour the monkey will clang its cymbal.
While you wait, you produce an estimate of the probability of the monkey being in the first box. Let's assume that... |
c5d49b3a-6cef-4c1c-a757-5e667c3a2ea4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Corrigibility Via Thought-Process Deference
> We would ideally want the agent to [behave] as if it were thinking, "I am incomplete and there is an outside force trying to complete me, my design may contain errors and there is an outside force that wants to correct them and this a good thing, my expected utility calcul... |
1cd3be63-e5c7-4e0e-a66b-3dc07db350ad | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Previously, I described human thought-generation as an adversarial process between a low-quality pseudorandom Babble generator and a high-quality Prune filter, roughly analogous to the Generative Adversarial Networks model in machine learning. I then elaborated on this model by reconceptualizing Babble as a random wal... |
0f44c45e-350d-4bd5-83be-90b2ce763630 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Brute-forcing the universe: a non-standard shot at diamond alignment
*This is an expanded version of my answer to* [*application problem 2*](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NVVtdsfz7HiseVFSk3jYly4sPG4dG03wFFDrD8rBXU0/edit) *for Nate Soares and Vivek Hebbar's* [*SERI MATS*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iR4kGzrWE... |
99995c3a-3fdf-411c-8c34-f4acee3cfa56 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Pause For Thought: The AI Pause Debate (Astral Codex Ten)
An overview of the EA Forum's recent AI Pause Debate week, from blogger Scott Alexander at Astral Codex Ten.
As I'd been meaning to get around to reading the debate, this was a helpful way in, as it scopes out where the main points of agreement and disagreemen... |
b7e53ee5-a9a8-43c2-9b87-e6012873c6c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Scylla of Error and the Charybdis of Paralysis
We're interested in improving human rationality. Many of our techniques for improving human rationality take time. In real-time situations, you can lose by making the wrong decision, or by making the "right" decision too slowly. Most of us do not have inflexible-sched... |
53adced3-fb40-4a41-ab38-b8d07b7e0da1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Eponymous Laws Part 2: Laws of Programming and Software Development
(See Eponymous Laws Part 1: Laws of the Internet)
Though ostensibly about programming and software development, most of these laws refer to fundamental aspects of human psychology (and folly). Enjoy.
Flon’s Law – “There does not now, nor will there ... |
2537cec7-d63f-4b7f-8332-92a517083d7e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Logical Counterfactuals Consistent Under Self-Modification
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-... |
257ff6a2-7617-47f4-998b-19886f67187a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paper
Paper is good. Somehow, a blank page and a pen makes the universe open up before you. Why paper has this unique power is a mystery to me, but I think we should all stop trying to resist this reality and just accept it.
Also, the world needs way more mundane blogging.
So let me offer a few observations about pa... |
9524da98-8cd6-4377-bee4-c8e03a673b36 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A possible training procedure for human-imitators
Some proposed ways to train a system to imitate a human imitate a human involve having one system imitate a human, while another system tries to tell the first system apart from an actual human. If the first system can get classified as human by the second system, then... |
3bd1cdbe-d70b-40f4-b55a-3e36f255e498 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Categories of Sacredness
Previously: Eternal, and Hearthstone Economy versus Magic Economy, Out to Get You
On Lesser Wrong, JenniferRM gave a reply that is worth quoting in full:
> If I understand correctly, the cognitive process/bias/heuristic/whatever of “sacredness” is relevant here.
> Neither nails nor dollars ... |
f1d1dafd-4f77-4209-8308-dd045235caac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Why the kids don’t know no algebra
Post by fellow LW reader Razib Khan, who many here probably know from the gnxp site or perhaps from his debate with Eliezer.
> A few days ago I stumbled upon a really interesting post. And I’m wondering if my readers are at all familiar with the phenomenon outlined here (it ... |
d60ec78c-6851-4854-bfcf-acfb194bc24d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Efficient Cross-Domain Optimization
Previously in series: Measuring Optimization Power
Is Deep Blue "intelligent"? It was powerful enough at optimizing chess boards to defeat Kasparov, perhaps the most skilled chess player humanity has ever fielded.
A bee builds hives, and a beaver builds dams; but a bee doesn't b... |
df20da52-9d9a-436c-947b-a61a717be389 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Predictive Processing, Heterosexuality and Delusions of Grandeur
Predictive processing is the theory that biological neurons minimize free energy. In this context, free energy isn't physical energy like the energy in your laptop battery. Instead, free energy is an informatic concept. It is useful to think about free e... |
daf2aa47-0fb7-42a1-ad8b-8931d628882e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [New Feature] Support for Footnotes!
It is with great excitement[1] that I am pleased to announce that the main LessWrong text editor[2] now has support for footnotes![3] A huge thanks to our friends over at the Effective Altruism Forum who coded this one up.
You can insert footnotes via:
1. Manually selecting text ... |
6d2dd136-ac0d-42a8-9b60-e65206b50698 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What big goals do we have?
Sometime ago Jonii wrote:
> I mean, paperclip maximizer is seriously ready to do anything to maximize paperclips. It really takes the paperclips seriously.
When I'm hungry I eat, but then I don't go on eating some more just to maximize a function. Eating isn't something I want a lot of. Li... |
49011ab0-2c27-4009-9996-8050efe6bcac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ancient Social Patterns: Comitatus
Purpose: I've been thinking about problems of goal advancement in spite of death, which brings us to honor. I am also keen on the history of Central Asia and the Steppe, and this is really cool: hence the blog section.
The word comitatus is Latin for retinue, or armed escort. In Ger... |
993f186b-7b13-4c74-b885-efc37f2303be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Arch-anarchy and The Fable of the Dragon-Tyrant
In "arch-anarchy", already republished here, the anonymous author "A" presents some good insights into why the laws of nature should not be seen as immutable decrees that govern the universe and much less worthy of veneration. However, I would like to make my arguments. ... |
3fa5dfdd-fb1e-4cd0-8205-fe040dc1b77e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chakras & Qi - Old Stories for the Base-Line Experience. Improve your physical & mental health by connecting body and mind.
Epistemic status: Based my experiences, a simple explanation for some very old ideas.
The connection between body and mind. Conscious proprioception, using the main muscles of movement, , seei... |
3ed324b9-db59-40c6-b906-16e0c2af4abc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What "The Message" Was For Me
> Warning: If you have low tolerance for analogies or poetic language, skip to the numbered chain of dependencies for a more straightforward rundown of the reasoning presented herein.
It's been said that when you get the message, hang up the phone. What is "the message" though? I can't ... |
1cafc587-1397-4223-bc2e-27fdab6545eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | MLP: The Next Level Of Your Studies
The first four chapters of my MLP fanfiction are now online on fimfiction.net. Unlike Friendship Is Optimal (fim link), which focuses on how MLP might impact the trajectory of AI, or Myou've Gotta be Kidding Me (fim link), which focuses on how a rationalist might impact the trajecto... |
c1cd6a11-26c5-40ca-92d5-039a30b388d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Munich Meetup, October 28th
Discussion article for the meetup : Munich Meetup, October 28th
WHEN: 28 October 2012 03:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Munich Central Station, Coffee Fellows cafe, inside the central station, *second* floor
The last meetup took place more than a year ago, so it's time for another one. S... |
7aef0f9f-bb9f-4462-8487-0881b95cab0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DC Meetup: Discussion
LessWrong DC has had its first meetup! 13 people showed up, and it was pretty fun.
We have a google group here, and will have most of the planning there.
However, we haven't met all the LWers in the DC area yet, so that's what this thread is for.
We're meeting again on the 15th, but were wonde... |
ce4fa795-0dc6-46a6-8aa1-8b734b22740b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mediums Overpower Messages
I've observed that consuming certain kinds of media make me smarter and other kinds of media makes me dumber.
Makes me dumber:
* Videogames
* YouTube
* News
Makes me smarter:
* Books
* Audiobooks
* Direct messaging apps
By "smarter" I mean it holistically causes me to behave in a ... |
f0d319c8-62cb-448e-8241-824ac73d043c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Question] What's your Elevator Pitch For Rationality?
You're talking with someone you like, and they ask you what you mean by rationality, or why you keep going to LessWrong meetups. Or you meet someone who might be interested in the site.
What do you say to them? If you had to explain to someone what LW-style ratio... |
42f6a42f-9e4a-4559-bd21-438653a0417d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Twitter Polls: Evidence is Evidence
Follow-up to: Law of No Evidence
Recently, there was some debate about a few Twitter polls, which led into a dispute over the usefulness of Twitter polls in general and how to deal with biased and potentially misleading evidence.
Agnus Callard is explicitly asking the same questio... |
6add62cc-12db-43d0-a602-69fb04528669 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Critiques of prominent AI safety labs: Conjecture
*Crossposted to* [*LessWrong*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9jvrQToSq3CYvoeHf/critiques-of-prominent-ai-safety-labs-conjecture)*.*
*This is the second post in this* [*sequence*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/GcxnnGRGy8bondvBB) *and covers Conjecture. We rec... |
d60dda8f-6980-422d-b2a7-ec41ca7b3352 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | IRL is hard
We show that assuming the existence of public-key cryptography, there is an environment in which Inverse Reinforcement Learning is computationally intractable, even though the "teacher" agent, the environment and the utility functions are computable in polynomial-time and there is only 1 bit of information... |
e73f720c-9027-416f-844f-8477cae7bff3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | What the AI Community Can Learn From Sneezing Ferrets and a Mutant Virus Debate
\*Lessons on publication norms for the AI community from biosecurity\*
--------------------------------------------------------------------
[]... |
a84ec56b-7ac7-4316-9b7e-2a23bd4cb4ef | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Lectures by Olle Häggström on AI risk and long-term AI safety, part 2
so
welcome everyone to this uh
second lecture in my uh
mini series on
ai risk and long-term ai safety
see if i can get my slides in order
so there i should have them in full
screen can someone
confirm that it's looking okay
yeah it looks good
thank ... |
aef37603-ec9a-4bf4-82e2-b2b7b2707af2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Plan-Bot: A Simple Planning Tool
[I recently made a post in the OT about this, but I figured it might be good as a top-level post for add'l attention.]
After writing Planning 101, I realized that there was no automated tool online for Murphyjitsu, the CFAR technique of problem-proofing plans. (I explain Murphyjitsu i... |
37d65153-c7fb-4c6f-a42b-a1a9441410a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | NYT: Lab Leak Most Likely Caused Pandemic, Energy Dept. Says
I don't have much to say about this publicly, other than the fact that NYT is probably the largest news website in the US and it's reporting is very influential and high-stakes as a result. Also, that if you ever noticed a news website routinely being horrib... |
2837e559-8f6d-4cc6-b6ee-e6e502e8c4f1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | The AI Impacts Blog
*By Katja Grace, 9 January 2015*
Welcome to the AI Impacts blog.
AI Impacts is premised on two ideas (at least!):
* **The details of the arrival of human-level artificial intelligence matter**
[Seven years to prepare](http://aiimpacts.wpengine.com/muller-and-bostrom-ai-progress-poll/) is v... |
8808ad9e-ab4a-4abc-8c5e-8d1f71739225 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Have I just destroyed the acausal trade network?
An amusing thought occurred to me: acausal trade works best when you expect that there are going to be a lot of quite predictable acausal traders out there.
However, I've suggested a patch that seems to be able to shut down acausal trade for particular agents. Before d... |
6114cb17-86bb-4e53-9a4d-9c38de6b3a0c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | AiTech Agora: Chao Zhang - Personal Autonomy in Human-AI Interaction
and so i came back to ty open my
hdi group to do my phd so
the topic was about modeling and
changing people's lifestyle behaviors
such as like encouraging people to do
more physical exercise or changing
people's daily diet
the focus of the project wa... |
10dd597e-b261-4ffd-a23e-cd64e68035de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some thoughts about natural computation and interactions
Epistemic Status: Ramblings of my current thoughts on computation.
I have been wondering about the nature of computation for some time now. For instance, what do we mean when we say the brain computes? I think the traditional answers are unsatisfactory. Chief a... |
be3c7060-f30a-478c-ab0c-eb3a4748b0e4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Experiences and learnings from both sides of the AI safety job market
*I’m writing this in my own capacity. The views expressed are my own, and should not be taken to represent the views of Apollo Research or any other program I’m involved with.*
In 2022, I applied to multiple full-time AI safety positions. Now, I sw... |
340fbb02-89e2-406b-9934-0f94ad993522 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Read
Part of my attempt to provide a bunch of unsolicited, anecdotal evidence that probably doesn't work for everyone.
-
Of course you already know how to read. But do you know how to read well?
Many people who read a book want to read for entertainment. That's perfectly ok -- it seems like a great way to ... |
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