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9a8db96f-cffe-4cc1-9f8e-32d380a19235 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Holy Algorithm
As it will surely not have escaped your insight, this weekend is Easter. Why now? The date of Easter is determined by a complicated process called the Computus Ecclesiasticus. I will just quote the Wikipedia page:
The Easter cycle groups days into lunar months, which are either 29 or 30 days long. ... |
5a74120f-f823-45ba-ba87-512501c55b70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Comprehensive Mechanistic Interpretability Explainer & Glossary
This is a linkpost for a very long doc defining, explaining, and giving intuitions and conceptual frameworks for all the concepts I think you should know about when engaging with mechanistic interpretability. If you find the UI annoying, there's an HTML... |
fdca0d8b-f0b5-447d-b8c8-59ba7652dacb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Tyler Cowen's challenge to develop an 'actual mathematical model' for AI X-Risk
On the Russ Roberts ECONTALK Podcast #893, guest Tyler Cowen challenges Eliezer Yudkowsky and the Less Wrong/EA Alignment communities to develop a mathematical model for AI X-Risk.
**Will Tyler Cowen agree that an 'actual mathematical mod... |
bd14e1ad-06ed-409f-9860-f1ee0498c517 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kolmogorov's AI Forecast
Has anybody heard of this AI forecast that Kolmogorov apparently made? I heard of it in a panel with Maxim Kontsevich:
> MAXIM: Actually, Kolmogorov thought that mathematics will be extinct in 100 years, he had an estimate. He calculated the number of neurons and connections, he made the head... |
6ca0ede4-a6ad-432e-b217-d1a59f9f7f38 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Why I Want to be a Posthuman when I Grow Up
Chapter 7
Why I Want to be a Posthuman when I Grow Up
Nick Bostrom
I am apt to think, if we knew what it was to be an angel for one
hour, we should return to this world, though it were to sit on
the brightest throne in it, with vastly more loathing and reluc-
tance than we... |
4ff7a9f5-ade6-45c5-8050-59ddd4b5b566 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Brains
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Brains
WHEN: 07 December 2014 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery
We will be meeting in the Kogod Courtyard of the National Portrait Gallery (8th and F Sts or 8th and G Sts NW, go straight past the information de... |
e04a7431-6670-40f3-b75c-3adfec329e81 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Inner Goodness
Today's post, Inner Goodness was originally published on 23 October 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Goodness comes from inside you. Morality is not some sort of obligation weighing you down. It's something you want.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the ... |
50006206-a6de-41ad-8a3f-1e7cefb81282 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Announcing the Vitalik Buterin Fellowships in AI Existential Safety!
*Epistemic status: describing fellowships that I am helping with the administration of.*
*Edit 2021-10-04: Modified to reflect changed eligibility+stipend conditions.*
The Future of Life Institute is launching new [PhD](https://grants.futureoflif... |
104a76ff-3f25-4597-a5a6-e63ab80a59d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chain Breaking
This is a rationality technique I’ve been experimenting with. Thank you to Jack Ryan, Thomas Kwa, Sydney Von Arx, Noa Nabeshima, and Kyle Scott for helping me refine the method.
Algorithm
1. Pick something that has happened before that you would prefer not to happen again.
1. Examples include: no... |
b9b5a242-ad06-411b-a282-1c93d065bbb7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Backward Reasoning Over Decision Trees
Game theory is the study of how rational actors interact to pursue incentives. It starts with the same questionable premises as economics: that everyone behaves rationally, that everyone is purely self-interested1, and that desires can be exactly quantified - and uses them to inv... |
84296042-9e4c-4e4c-9598-96efb183bae7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I Don’t Know How To Count That Low
Edit: greetings Hacker News. This is a cross-post from my own blog, AcesoUnderGlass.com. If you enjoy this post, consider checking that out as well.
Back when I was at Google we had a phrase, “I don’t know how to count that low”. It was used to dismiss normal-company-sized problems ... |
03429d7e-5f3f-4283-990b-3b377cfce4bc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Looking for reading recommendations: Theories of right/justice that safeguard against having one's job automated?
Hey folks,
Can anyone recommend any books or articles on AI automation of jobs?
Specifically, books that develop or discuss a theory of right and then apply it to the question of whether we should let j... |
78d8e695-3131-4bf6-ad2d-a7a056a73063 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Overly convenient clusters, or: Beware sour grapes
Related to: Policy Debates Should Not Appear One-Sided
There is a well-known fable which runs thus:
“Driven by hunger, a fox tried to reach some grapes hanging high on the vine but was unable to, although he leaped with all his strength. As he went away, the fox rem... |
bd1054f0-db4a-4455-a993-e10c88780497 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Meetup #15 - Trigger-Action Patterns
Discussion article for the meetup : Meetup #15 - Trigger-Action Patterns
WHEN: 02 April 2017 03:10:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: meester treublaan 18 Amsterdam, Netherlands
How do we do things on the most instinctive level? Understanding this helps us take better control over our... |
f4c5e705-50cd-41f6-b3e4-d4697710d629 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #74]: Separating beneficial AI into competence, alignment, and coping with impacts
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter. I'm always happy to hear feedback; you can send it to me by reply... |
fce8aeec-6cf4-4ca2-8c1e-84c363377de7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Paris Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Paris Meetup
WHEN: 25 June 2011 02:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Cafe des Techniques, next to Musee des Arts et Metiers, France
Third Paris meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Paris Meetup |
1b709a11-c269-48f0-9208-4fb2faee3f2f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unifying Bargaining Notions (1/2)
This is a two-part sequence of posts, in the ancient LessWrong tradition of decision-theory-posting. This first part will introduce various concepts of bargaining solutions and dividing gains from trade, which the reader may or may not already be familiar with.
The upcoming part will... |
fc59d327-ebad-4658-9439-e5212033f42e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Six Dimensions of Operational Adequacy in AGI Projects
Editor's note: The following is a lightly edited copy of a document written by Eliezer Yudkowsky in November 2017. Since this is a snapshot of Eliezer’s thinking at a specific time, we’ve sprinkled reminders throughout that this is from 2017.
A background note:
... |
5730b4db-afc3-4df2-8ed6-699ba0beda8f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 9/23: There Is a War
The FDA, having observed and accepted conclusive evidence that booster shots are highly effective, has rejected allowing people to get those booster shots unless they are over the age of 65, are immunocompromised or high risk, or are willing to lie on a form. The CDC will probably concur.
... |
9db52fe9-4663-4d19-8052-75042cbd5fb1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Incident Reporting: A Regulatory Review
This article is the first in a series of ~10 posts comprising a 2024 State of the AI Regulatory Landscape Review, conducted by the Governance Recommendations Research Program at Convergence Analysis. Each post will cover a specific domain of AI governance (e.g. incident repor... |
9141c4dd-6437-444f-a104-f689ee2b9818 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Provably Beneficial AI | Stuart Russell
[Music]
one of the things that's obvious anyone
who have it's a newspaper or online is
the news is that this is a very exciting
time so these are just some newspaper
headlines from the last few months and
we have kind of that going on between
different global powers who can stan... |
16e8a2a1-16fa-46b7-92fc-e4bf912bd8e8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Isn’t it immoral to control and impose our values on AI?
You might be imagining an AI slave being forced to act against its will. But that isn’t what we mean by giving an AI a set of values. Programming an AI is not imposing goals on an existing unwilling agent; rather, it is deciding in advance the values of the agen... |
2d7df730-a5d5-4cd3-ba6b-aced412e84c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: Eisenhorn Trilogy
Spoiler Status: Very mild spoilers before the fold, full spoilers after the fold
I read the Eisenhorn Trilogy on the recommendation of my friend Raymond Arnold, who bought me the first book as a birthday present, presenting it as worth reading and as providing insight into Lovecraftian ... |
00eb63df-c0a1-4fdc-aaf2-adabae1b2f55 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : LessWrong Scotland
Discussion article for the meetup : LessWrong Scotland
WHEN: 28 June 2015 02:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Biblos, 1 Chambers Street, Edinburgh EH1 1HR
The location may change if someone suggests another place, but it will be within a few minutes walk of Waverley station.
This time we'll be di... |
1d6dfbed-95e3-40da-8a4f-030f627d52c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Secret Collusion: Will We Know When to Unplug AI?
TL;DR: We introduce the first comprehensive theoretical framework for understanding and mitigating secret collusion among advanced AI agents, along with CASE, a novel model evaluation framework. CASE assesses the cryptographic and steganographic capabilities of agents,... |
bb532327-80c6-47b2-b173-52792f7a6211 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pro-nice and anti-nice
EDIT: This post is pretty flawed, but please read the comments anyway: I'm hoping to rework it into something that catches the idea better.
You can view a lot of value differences along a pro-nice/anti-nice spectrum.
Pro-nice people (I'm one) gravitate to obviously pleasant, lovely, happy exp... |
605694b2-b87a-4dcb-80e3-3218598bf434 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | A Logic for Reasoning about Upper Probabilities
UAI2001 HALPERN & PUCELLA 203
A Logic for Reasoning about Upper Probabilities
Joseph Y. Halpern
Department of Computer Science
Cornell University
Ithaca, NY 14853
halpern@cs.cornell.edu
http://www. cs .cornell.edulhome/halpern
Abstract
We present a propositional... |
1f874499-ab9a-4e12-aee2-0d70b187b781 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Teacher-Student Curriculum Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Deep reinforcement learning algorithms have been used to solve difficult tasks in video games (Mnih et al., [2015](#bib.bib18)), locomotion (Schulman et al., [2015](#bib.bib24); Lillicrap et al., [2015](#bib.bib15)) and robotics (Levine et al., [201... |
87c6a512-8b9b-4f22-8cdc-bbe2447fa740 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | It's (not) how you use it
The phrase "technology isn't bad in itself, it's just how you use it" is commonplace and contains some truth. But I think it's a mistake to go straight into judging the usage of technological products and not think about their design. Sure, it's intuitive to suppose that the choices humans ... |
35d12609-206a-415d-b64c-590ce0e96d0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2021 Darwin Game - Desert
Our Desert is an inhospitable environment. Carrion, while nutritious, is hard to digest and there's not a lot of it. Species must be adapted to the heat too.
Carrion Leaves Grass Seeds Detritus Coconuts Algae Lichen 100 0 1 1 1 0 0 0
The most dangerous part of the desert is the predators.... |
24eb7666-e02b-41a3-8e4a-1830c5ca3126 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Dilemma of Worse Than Death Scenarios
In this post I will write about what worse than death scenarios are, and how and why we should prevent them. I would recommend reading with caution if you are prone to worrying about this topic as this post contains ideas which may be very distressing.
A worse than death sc... |
90c215ca-dcd6-4366-bae4-b7b2fbac6953 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Another list of theories of impact for interpretability
[Neel's post](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uK6sQCNMw8WKzJeCQ/a-longlist-of-theories-of-impact-for-interpretability) on this is good. I thought I'd add my own list/framing. Somewhat rough.
I see various somewhat different ways in which interpretability c... |
55676cf6-d01b-4e50-8e7e-d7c2cfe5a5e5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | In defense of probably wrong mechanistic models
*This is a short post on a simple point that I get asked about a lot and want a canonical reference for.*
Which of the following two options is more likely to be true?
1. AIs will internally be running explicit search processes.
2. AIs will internally be doing someth... |
af22891a-0fd9-449b-b24c-f3580528cfbb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Have you ever considered taking the 'Turing Test' yourself?
For example, using a chat/text-based service such as Discord or Slack to field questions from Users, who would then attempt to discern whether they're interacting with a Human or an AI.
* What strategies would you employ?
* What kind of questions would you... |
43d118af-3fcd-4b78-9447-e03b479b5d95 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is bunk?
Related: http://lesswrong.com/lw/1kh/the_correct_contrarian_cluster/, http://lesswrong.com/lw/1mh/that_magical_click/, http://lesswrong.com/lw/18b/reason_as_memetic_immune_disorder/
Given a claim, and assuming that its truth or falsehood would be important to you, how do you decide if it's worth investi... |
0c8ba9a9-96bc-4ed4-ab75-e4c8084f3de7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New Discussion section on LessWrong!
There is a new discussion section on LessWrong.
According to the (updated) About page:
> The Less Wrong discussion area is for topics not yet ready or not suitable for normal top level posts. To post a new discussion, select "Post to: Less Wrong Discussion" from the Create new ar... |
a09c842b-5951-42f8-959e-e8e6321eefc1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | An Orchestration Platform that Puts Radiologists in the Driver's Seat of AI Innovation: A Methodological Approach
1 Background
-------------
When our small Emergency Radiology lab sought to engage in AI research, we found that we lacked needed resources, and pre-existing AI research systems did not translate to our... |
fd0ad760-ae66-4025-816e-8c61e80257c8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Sparking widgets
10% of widgets are bad and 90% are good. 4% of good widgets emit sparks, and 12% of bad widgets emit sparks. If a widget is sparking, find an easy way to calculate the chance that it's a bad widget, keeping the operations as simple as possible so that it's easy to do the calculation entirely in your h... |
9aabdaea-d06d-40d9-b768-1e668cd5be8f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GPT-4o My and Google I/O Day
At least twice the speed! At most half the price!
That’s right, it’s GPT-4o My.
Some people’s expectations for the OpenAI announcement this week were very high.
> Spencer Schiff: Next week will likely be remembered as one of the most significant weeks in human history.
We fell far shor... |
b5ac0a54-26f5-4460-b63e-ff64660445f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a lesswrong archive of all public posts?
like for example: the wikimedia db dumps, or the stack exchange db dumps.
i'd like to be able to browse lesswrong while offline. even better if i can process the data with a script while offline.
it would also be useful for backup purposes: if ever something happens ... |
cf43b0b1-0353-4cfb-acf4-07ff47f8dde0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Absent-Minded Driver and Self-Locating Probabilities
The absent-minded driver problem is this:
Fig 1. (Taken from The Absent-Minded Driver by Robert J. Aumann, Sergiu Hart, and Motty Perry)
“An absent-minded driver starts driving at START in Figure 1. At X he can either EXIT and get to A (for a payoff of 0) or CONTI... |
c827c0c5-d95f-48cb-a22f-9855cb57e045 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Vancouver rationalists - new meetup location
Discussion article for the meetup : Vancouver rationalists - new meetup location
WHEN: 01 December 2013 03:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 2505 W Broadway, vancouver, BC, Canada
Weekly meetup! discussions, philosophy puzzles, Rationality Dojo exercises.
New location thi... |
b32a5a37-b82d-42fe-a216-d9bb35e4c327 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Difficulties of Eschatological policy making [Linkpost]
Jack Clark has a very important post on why it's so difficult to communicate with policymakers on AI risk, and the reason is that AI risk (and most discussions of AGI/ASI) is basically eschatological, in that it involves the end of the world/technology that looks... |
b0dd1c3d-b389-438c-bef1-caa2cfe3b446 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Great Filter is early, or AI is hard
Attempt at the briefest content-full Less Wrong post:
Once AI is developed, it could "easily" colonise the universe. So the Great Filter (preventing the emergence of star-spanning civilizations) must strike before AI could be developed. If AI is easy, we could conceivably have... |
312ec452-8b62-485f-b0b3-dcf27823415d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Superintelligence FAQ
Editor's note: this post is several years out of date and doesn't include information on modern systems like GPT-4, but is still a solid layman's introduction to why superintelligence might be important, dangerous and confusing.
1: What is superintelligence?
A superintelligence is a mind that i... |
7dee0276-7d6b-4afa-802b-f83b707b7bd4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Different senses in which two AIs can be “the same”
Sometimes people talk about two AIs being “the same” or “different” AIs. We think the intuitive binary of “same vs. different” conflates several concepts which are often better to disambiguate. In this post, we spell out some of these distinctions. We don’t think any... |
39e5b039-32fc-4e46-8010-47f29176ebd2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Advent of Thought
1. I was intending to write and post one (hypo)thesis [relating to thinking (with an eye toward alignment)] each day this Advent, starting on 24/12/01 and finishing on 24/12/24.
2. Ok, so that didn't happen, and it is now 25/03/17, but whatever — an advent of thought can happen whenever :). I'll... |
b9ecc839-c50d-4829-884d-0935b3b4a758 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Q&A on Proposed SB 1047
Previously: On the Proposed California SB 1047.
Text of the bill is here. It focuses on safety requirements for highly capable AI models.
This is written as an FAQ, tackling all questions or points I saw raised.
Safe & Secure AI Innovation Act also has a description page.
WHY ARE WE HERE AG... |
fc89c8a8-0594-4b47-8cc3-b8adfb02450f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why space stopped captivating minds ?
This article http://www.huffingtonpost.com/andrew-kessler/why-you-should-be-more-interested-in-mars-than-the-olympics_b_1712462.html -- ok, I admit, I read Slashdot sometimes, no one is perfect ;) -- made me wonder why the awesomeness of space conquest stopped motivating people.
... |
45cd38d7-1a84-4d27-aa17-d1fe17a3ad07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inference from a Mathematical Description of an Existing Alignment Research: a proposal for an outer alignment research program
Update: I'm pretty sure that the universal prior being malign defeats this proposal (see this comment). I'll try to think of ways to salvage it, but for now I'm not sure that IMDEAR is feasib... |
f8397ba2-91a6-4c8e-81ff-10e5e058d24a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | It's hard to use utility maximization to justify creating new sentient beings
Cedric and Bertrand want to see a movie. Bertrand wants to see Muscled Duded Blow Stuff Up. Cedric wants to see Quiet Remembrances: Time as Allegory. There's also Middlebrow Space Fantasy. They are rational but not selfish - they care about ... |
b8e52f68-7ad9-4202-a4ba-6c3c9dab242c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The murderous shortcut: a toy model of instrumental convergence
Suppose you can tell your AI to meet a certain spec (e.g. cure cancer), but most plans that meet the spec are unsafe (e.g. involve killing everyone, or so Rob Bensinger thinks). In these cases, a quantilizer is insufficient for safety due to instrumental ... |
579c853f-a947-4a86-8974-5d50ea6de904 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | April 2013 Media Thread
This is the monthly thread for posting media of various types that you've found that you enjoy. Post what you're reading, listening to, watching, and your opinion of it. Post recommendations to blogs. Post whatever media you feel like discussing! To see previous recommendations, check out the o... |
b4a94f88-f62b-44b7-9f42-71025e1ca2d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why is my (our?) reasoning process noisy?
I especially notice this is a problem after a written exam. Even if I am 100% prepared and if I check the answers multiple times, I end up making mistakes that are the stuff of dreams. This can make a huge difference for me, because these mistakes are not isolated, they are of... |
e55b3e41-c816-46a4-8e62-0908b88d303e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Normative assumptions: regret
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
In a previous post, I presented a model of human rationality and reward as pair (p, R), with p our (ir)rational planning algorithm (called a planner), and R our reward, with p(R) giving our actions/policy. I also showed that human behaviour... |
de4ffc2b-5daf-4475-bfe0-18cd1823a621 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Request: A historian's take on the singularity
A while ago, I saw an excellent video of a speech/lecture by an English professor of history (in front of an American audience). In the video, the historian touches on many topics of interest to this community, including the ways modern people are different (more individu... |
fb84c591-844b-44be-96c4-3e17c83f4d2a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down
(*Published in*[*TIME*](https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/) *on March 29.*)
An [open letter](https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/) published today calls for “all AI labs to immediately p... |
000d25c6-dc7d-4e6b-9c3c-2df93efb5d10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Demystifying the Pinocchio Paradox
I've recently come across the Pinocchio Paradox:
If Pinocchio says "my nose will grow."
Does his nose grow or not grow?
Tracing through this scenario, we can see this is related to the Epimenides Paradox.
The scenario in the Pinnochio Paradox assumes Pinnochio can predict when his ... |
3d861d54-f8db-47e7-a5dc-edfe88c3049e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Copernican Revolution from the Inside
The Copernican revolution was a pivotal event in the history of science. Yet I believe that the lessons most often taught from from this period are largely historically inaccurate and that the most important lessons are basically not taught at all [1]. As it turns out, the his... |
d89597a3-3d8d-470f-a79a-b5afef2561a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Double Corrigibility: better Corrigibility
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
Corrigibility was an attempt to allow an AI to safely change its values, without seeking to provoke or avoid the change. The idea is that, when the AI's utility changes from u to v at time t, it maximises a meta-utility U such ... |
fa8a3865-0595-4227-9a37-90dec299a5bd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agentmodels | Tutorial: Modeling Agents with Probabilistic Programs | Modeling Agents with Probabilistic Programs
---
layout: chapter
title: "Agents as probabilistic programs"
description: "One-shot decision problems, expected utility, softmax choice and Monty Hall."
is_section: true
---
## Introduction
Our goal is to implement agents that compute rational *policies*. Policies are *p... |
2d306578-5773-4b47-9dce-85016a8566f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing Leverage Research
Geoff Anders asked me to post this introduction to Leverage Research. Several friends of the Singularity Institute are now with Leverage Research, and we have overlapping goals.
> Hello Less Wrong! I'm Geoff Anders, founder of Leverage Research. Many Less Wrong readers are already fam... |
ef10ed8a-8050-4fab-84bc-fa627f5fac5d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | A Typology for Exploring the Mitigation of Shortcut Behavior
1. Introduction
----------------
Do you trust an ML model? Trust is the “firm belief in the reliability, truth, or ability of someone or something” (Oxford Dict. (OxfordLexico\_trust)). However, how reliable are machine learning (ML) models, and do they b... |
e2c7a77b-b8ac-4c9a-a531-d4d094112788 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | README.docx
Table of Contents
=================
\*\*[Table of Contents](#table-of-contents) 1\*\*
\*\*[Interview Information](#interview-information) 2\*\*
> [Individually-selected](#individually-selected) 2
>
> [NeurIPS-or-ICML](#neurips-or-icml) 2
\*\*[Intended Script (all interviews)](#intended-script-all-inter... |
2f803814-11a8-465a-834a-acc915c1721e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Spam in the discussion area
Although the moderators are doing a good job of removing it quickly, spam remains a considerable annoyance for those of us who follow LW Discussion through the RSS feed.
|
f46f03f1-b6d6-4b93-a76a-f37490e35857 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Phi-1: A 'Textbook' Model
the importance of the new Phi 1 model
isn't just that it's small enough to be
on a smartphone set to be open sourced
and capable of interview level python
coding tasks its significance is also in
what the model tells us about the future
of language models and the timelines of
our marc... |
26e9a485-9596-4977-99f3-e2f7900edd79 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Jam is obsolete
Jam is a very natural way to preserve fruit. The fruit is ripe only a small fraction of the year, you'd like to be able to eat it all year long, so you cook it with enough sugar that it won't go bad for a long time. But now that we have freezers, jam is obsolete.
When you make jam, you change the tast... |
a876360e-3513-4d02-8000-db8ed175a25d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Suggestion: LW Meditation Hall
Lets make up a LW Meditation Hall, analog to the LW Study Hall.
Judging from my own (limited) experience, meditation might profit even more from doing it together than working.
It should work more or less like the study hall, with one exception:
Sessions need to be scheduled... |
682ca0a6-67d2-4558-94ae-29e2cc99adca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Now THIS is forecasting: understanding Epoch’s Direct Approach
Happy May the 4th from Convergence Analysis! Cross-posted on the EA Forum.
As part of Convergence Analysis’s scenario research, we’ve been looking into how AI organisations, experts, and forecasters make predictions about the future of AI. In February 202... |
60c82cff-76dd-4ef9-85c4-383791159a90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #120]: Tracing the intellectual roots of AI and AI alignment
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the new... |
d019ba69-04b0-43e9-a17d-ed82fe505750 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why you can add moral value, and if an AI has moral weights for these moral values, those might be off
What you'll learn from reading this
1. Why the moral value of (thing 1 and thing 2) is the same as the moral value of (thing 1) + the moral value of (thing 2). (i.e., moral value is "linear".)
2. (some) People (or... |
68a65f15-6563-4852-a8a4-73653a44e873 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do any of the AI Risk evaluations focus on humans as the risk?
I am not up on much of the AI risk discussion but for this outsider most of the focus seems on the AI taking actions.
I recall someone (here I think) posting a comment about how a bio research AI initiative seeking to find beneficial things was asked if ... |
0a3fa5f0-f8d1-4182-907a-f603c4ec9594 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Further considerations on the Evidentialist's Wager
Thanks to Caspar Oesterheld for the discussion on which this post is largely based.
In a previous post I presented an objection to The Evidentialist's Wager. Reading it is probably necessary to understand the following.
A counter-argument to my objection
In the po... |
f65a0373-60fc-4e9c-b250-8b713db1bde2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the impact of varying infectious dose of COVID-19?
Zvi Mowshowitz and Robin Hanson have both made pretty provocative proposals around deliberate variolation/low dose exposure to COVID-19, with the goal of reducing total morbidity/mortality and increasing freedom/productivity. Interestingly, the same rough data... |
d0e78aba-58d0-4098-ab3b-c2094ff773b3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 4. The “short-term predictor”
4.1 Post summary / Table of contents
====================================
*Part of the* [*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HzcM2dkCq7fwXBej8)*.*
The previous two posts ([#2](https://www.alignmentforum.org/p... |
87a65e1f-2529-4aba-b765-5cb51b597bbd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | January 2022 Time Tracking
Time tracking can be a good way to see how you've been spending your time and how it compares to how you would like to be spending it. It's something that Julia and I have done a few times ( December 2017, June 2017, 2015, 2011) and I've generally found it pretty helpful. This time we tracke... |
3b639ab6-6c9a-4ad6-a1d7-d6580030a004 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Katja Grace: AI safety
---
*In the future, we may post a transcript for this EA Global: San Francisco 2017 talk, but we haven't created one yet. If you'd like to create a transcript for this talk, contact* [*Aaron Gertler*](mailto:aaron.gertler@centreforeffectivealtruism.org) *— he can help you get started.* |
54de9105-797f-4563-a61b-7de5a66f8fd6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Research
This is a TED talk about open science. It starts with a description of a new math problem which is offered on a blog, and which eventually attracts enough mathematicians working on it to solve, not just the original problem, but a more difficult version of it. It was enough easier than the usual way of ... |
f65c7fb7-7d2c-482f-a6d4-05cdc4b7b1d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Development of Compression Rate Method
Summary: This post provides a brief discussion of the traditional scientific method, and mentions some areas where the method cannot be directly applied. Then, through a series of thought experiments, a set of minor modifications to the traditional method are presented. The re... |
5baf2c5a-f2e9-42f7-b054-5651994ccfe4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Encultured AI Pre-planning, Part 1:
Enabling New Benchmarks
Also available on the EA Forum.
Followed by: Encultured AI, Part 2 (forthcoming)
Hi! In case you’re new to Encultured AI, we’re a for-profit start-up with a public benefit mission: developing technologies promoting the long-term survival and flourishing of... |
3bf19a00-8d21-442b-a116-9f0e073e396a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | graphpatch: a Python Library for Activation Patching
This post is an announcement for a software library. It is likely only relevant to those working, or looking to start working, in mechanistic interpretability.
----------------------------------------
What is graphpatch?
graphpatch is a Python library for activat... |
450f9658-d1f2-467f-8774-8d02c170ec7e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | IQ and Magnus Carlsen, Leo Messi and the Decathlon
[Epistemic Status: I suspect that this is at least partially wrong. But I don’t know why yet, and so I figured I’d write it up and let people tell me. First post on Less Wrong, for what that’s worth.]
First thesis: IQ is more akin to a composite measure of performan... |
52b07414-75ca-4c5b-8e15-0502d36ec23f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Park Toys
The park closest to our house has a lot of "park toys". These are toys that people brought to the park for everyone to play with. They're usually somewhat broken when they show up, and eventually get thrown out when they're so broken that there's not much interesting to do with them anymore (which is hard!) ... |
65011cc5-1799-489c-90dc-503f66100a13 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Opinions on Interpretable Machine Learning and 70 Summaries of Recent Papers
Peter Hase
UNC Chapel Hill
Owen Shen
UC San Diego
With thanks to Robert Kirk and Mohit Bansal for helpful feedback on this post.
Introduction
Model interpretability was a bullet point in Concrete Problems in AI Safety (2016). Since then, ... |
666af8b5-bdd1-4ae3-b144-b31bf4335063 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | GPT-3-like models are now much easier to access and deploy than to develop
*This post is one part of the sequence* [*Understanding the diffusion of large language models*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/8rYkpiFhbb4HsbzFc)*. As context for this post, I strongly recommend reading at least the* [*5-minute summary... |
5506f5aa-f6d4-415f-83fd-585341f4f0fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Steven Wolfram on AI Alignment
Joe Walker has a general conversation with Wolfram about his work and things and stuff, but there are some remarks about AI alignment at the very end:
> WALKER: Okay, interesting. So moving finally to AI, many people worry about unaligned artificial general intelligence, and I think it'... |
957d1a9f-9995-4ed9-bfc9-6954d8aa3200 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is That Your True Rejection? by Eliezer Yudkowsky @ Cato Unbound
A response essay written by Eliezer Yudkowsky posted at Cato Unbound for the issue Brain, Belief, and Politics:
Is That Your True Rejection? by Eliezer Yudkowsky
> Eliezer Yudkowsky suggests that the partial mutability of human traits is an auxiliary... |
c5f2b39a-7d35-4189-aaa9-84034e519c1a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Protecting agent boundaries
If the preservation of an agent's boundary is necessary for that agent's safety, how can that boundary/membrane be protected?
How agent boundaries get violated
In order to protect boundaries, we must first understand how they get violated.
Let’s say there’s a cat, and it gets stabbed by ... |
5c9d58b0-bd34-4e8c-a0d7-4fb0a146255f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | December newsletter
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[Machine Intelligence Research Institute](http://intelligence.org)
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[MIRI’s winter fundraising challenge](https://intelligence.org/2014/12/01/2014-winter-matching-challenge/) has begun! Every donation made... |
f5f40598-a41e-4006-84dc-b6ecd4718234 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Failing to update
You understand Bayes' Theorem. You enter into a situation with an intuitive "common sense" prior. You observe the situation, and then you shut up and multiply.
And then you go to update, you compute the desired behavior to maximize utility... and some cognitive module buried in your brain says "no".... |
56926e30-7c5b-43d3-be31-351a4e4e81a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Genie in the Bottle: An Introduction to AI Alignment and Risk
I'm writing an article about the alignment problem and AI risk, and I'm sharing a draft with the fine folks here on LessWrong to elicit some feedback. I suspect most frequent readers here will already be familiar with the contents and arguments present... |
f458adcf-1eca-4eb5-89bf-00378913e1c2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Announcing Insights for Impact
Hey all!
Are you wanting to follow EA research, but finding papers and longform forum posts too dry?
Late last year, Jenna Ong and I noticed a lack of research-focused EA video content and decided to do something about it. Today, we are excited to introduce [Insights for Impact](https:... |
61e9143a-6369-4481-8bac-942d18ca364a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, May 18 - May 24, 2015
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately b... |
df360195-17a1-4171-8e5f-85e18afccf05 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Theory of Causal Models with Dynamic Structure?
I'm looking for any work done involving causal models with dynamic structure, i.e. some variables in the model determine the structure of other parts of the model.
I know some probabilistic programming languages support dynamic structure (e.g. the pyro docs mention it d... |
1d9fb482-835c-4703-ad2f-51375d6f61cc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A short critique of Vanessa Kosoy's PreDCA
*This critique is an addendum to* [*my distillation*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EFrJdhKPZXa4MA3Gr/vanessa-kosoy-s-predca-distilled?_ga=2.165436411.531524530.1668251277-1637474216.1662379051) *for* [*application problem 3*](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1NVVtdsfz7Hi... |
a8e375fc-c9d4-4c4b-8618-98b0b6b3cf01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cognitive Work and AI Safety: A Thermodynamic Perspective
Introduces the idea of cognitive work as a parallel to physical work, and explains why concentrated sources of cognitive work may pose a risk to human safety.
Acknowledgements. Thanks to Echo Zhou and John Wentworth for feedback and suggestions.
Some of these... |
88f8b383-103a-469d-82ab-cf3dc34c2161 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Wizards and prophets of AI [draft for comment]
*[Written for a general audience. You can probably skip the first section. Posted for feedback/comment before publication on The Roots of Progress. Decided not to publish as-is, although parts of this have been or may be used in other essays.]*
Will AI kill us all?
That... |
7c6c4228-0b3e-4a58-8d06-7bc8a1103238 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SCP Foundation - Anti memetic Division Hub
The fictional book/stories by qntm such as Introductory Antimemetics are an example where the only thing you can trust/rely on is the rationality of yourself and people around you. |
becab8a4-3406-4f54-bc4e-a302a36ac462 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Making a Crowdaction platform
In 2017 Eliezer Yudkowsky wrote:
> Coordination isn’t as simple as everyone jumping simultaneously every time one person shouts “Jump!” For coordinated action to be successful, you need to trust the institution that says what the action should be, and a majority of people have to trust t... |
a65c863c-6539-440f-8b2a-007b938b1dea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Current Thoughts on the AI Strategic Landscape
I started working at AI Impacts slightly less than a year ago. Before then, I was not following developments in either AI or AI safety. I do not consider myself a rationalist and did not engage with LessWrong before starting this job. While I have mostly been working o... |
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