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304018ee-be81-4f03-8671-d9ae1a05f4c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will/Has the Russia-Ukraine war been a tipping point for the shift from oil energy?
What do people think? The process and transition away from oil energy has been a long road. It seems to have been a slow path with lots of hurdles in the way. But now it seems there is another impetus in that direction that may tip the... |
92d2df7c-3560-40f2-bb6d-6c5611cfe423 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The AI Driver's Licence - A Policy Proposal
TL;DR: In response to the escalating capabilities and associated risks of advanced AI systems, we advocate for the implementation of an “AI Driver’s Licence” policy. Our proposal is informed by existing licencing frameworks and existing AI legislation. This initiative mandat... |
c73baf3a-2707-4545-bd5b-7ea1d0bd478b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | True numbers and fake numbers
> In physical science the first essential step in the direction of learning any subject is to find principles of numerical reckoning and practicable methods for measuring some quality connected with it. I often say that when you can measure what you are speaking about, and express it in n... |
191e0efc-7d51-4f06-a227-4f17dbccd0cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cambist Booking
Summary: A Cambist is a manual showing exchange rates of different currencies and measurements. Dutch Booking is when a sequence of trades would leave one party strictly worse off and another strictly better off. Cambist Booking is intended to spark conversation about what priorities or objects you wou... |
01d120e3-a3dc-4f8c-ba13-83d5d44c7b33 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Commonsense Good, Creative Good
Let's say you're vegan and you go to a vegan restaurant. The food is quite bad, and you'd normally leave a bad review, but now you're worried: what if your bad review leads people to go to non-vegan restaurants instead? Should you refrain from leaving a review? Or leave a false review, ... |
8c5ae12e-c815-4944-9189-64ac6f10c581 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The novelty quotient
I. The Device
Imagine a device that listens to all of your conversations. It has a single purpose: live-running your utterances through text-davinci-003 to evaluate how surprising each token is, given its preceding context.[1]
Users could chart their verbal novelty throughout the day; highlight ... |
a8b4348e-a571-4e3e-b5e1-2603d8f1a6a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Wired - "New Chip Borrows Brain’s Computing Tricks"
In case anyone's interested,here's an article about new computer chips by IBM which emulate brain functions. |
c73958ab-20aa-4f46-ba4c-0efe13d6b693 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | God in the Loop: How a Causal Loop Could Shape Existence
Crossposted from Vessel Project.
My last article, “Life Through Quantum Annealing” was an exploration of how a broad range of physical phenomena — and possibly the whole universe — can be mapped to a quantum computing process. But the article simply accepts th... |
71ac727f-9463-446c-b621-003989c63636 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How should Eliezer and Nick's extra $20 be split
In "Principles of Disagreement," Eliezer Yudkowsky shared the following anecdote:
> Nick Bostrom and I once took a taxi and split the fare. When we counted the money we'd assembled to pay the driver, we found an extra twenty there.
>
> "I'm pretty sure this twenty i... |
e925d3c8-3629-4bff-8c68-4ebee62e2cd8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #89: Trump Card
A lot happened in AI this week, but most people’s focus was very much elsewhere.
I’ll start with what Trump might mean for AI policy, then move on to the rest. This is the future we have to live in, and potentially save. Back to work, as they say.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Trump Card. What does Tr... |
f9fec038-2507-4a2d-be2b-d12f9632b063 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Allen, The Singularity Isn’t Near
[The Singularity Isn’t Near](http://www.technologyreview.com/view/425733/paul-allen-the-singularity-isnt-near/) is an article in [MIT Technology Review](http://www.technologyreview.com/) by [Paul Allen](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Allen) which argues that a singularity brought a... |
13e74e21-f723-4e9d-ac94-63ae262958e9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Vaniver's View on Factored Cognition
**The View from 2018**
In April of last year, [I wrote up](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rXzxMQwRq7KRonQDM/my-confusions-with-paul-s-agenda) my confusions with Paul’s agenda, focusing mostly on approval directed agents. I mostly have similar opinions now; the main thing I notic... |
dd2ccea2-57e3-48cf-80e7-e14be4a25e6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Games People Play
Game theory is great if you know what game you're playing. All this talk of Diplomacy reminds me of this memory of Adam Cadre:
> I remember that in my ninth grade history class, the teacher had us play a game that was supposed to demonstrate how shifting alliances work. He divided the class into sev... |
98f518af-198b-4978-b1d1-09f74ab221df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Would AIXI protect itself?
Research done with Daniel Dewey and Owain Evans.
AIXI can't find itself in the universe - it can only view the universe as computable, and it itself is uncomputable. Computable versions of AIXI (such as AIXItl) also fail to find themselves in most situations, as they generally can't simulat... |
c3299dda-dc3c-463e-b184-66758d99820e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Finite Factored Sets to Bayes Nets Part 2
This post assumes knowledge of category theory, finite factored sets, and Bayes nets.
The Setup
I've already talked about DAGs and factor overlap Venn diagrams in a previous post, where I studied them within a category-theoretic framework. Here I'll also perform an explicit ... |
6537abbb-454a-4b28-b27d-5c17ac4c6178 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on February 20th. The following week's summary is here.
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Dallas, TX: 22 February 2015 01:00PM
* European Community Weekend 2015: 12 June 2015 12:00PM
* [Frankfurt] Another Frankfurt meetup: 22 Febru... |
448a5607-f3d6-49a2-b67f-58a66036c16a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Darkness Meditation - for NZ Winter Solstice 2025
Here's my talk for tonight's Solstice Gathering, in Lyttelton, New Zealand.
<previously: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4oAk2cu489LcuhjWi/creating-my-own-winter-solstice-celebration-southern>
The Darkness Meditation V9
< Song - Sound of Silence >
"Hello d... |
af59621c-96fd-4ea5-9380-7df56e48292d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why effective altruists should do Charity Science’s Christmas fundraiser
> "Maybe Christmas", he thought, "doesn't come from a store."
>
> "Maybe Christmas... perhaps... means a little bit more!"
-The Grinch, How the Grinch Stole Christmas! (p.29)
The Donate Your Christmas fundraiser is simple–instead of Christmas ... |
b8f019a3-d88d-428a-9cfa-311e85f4ace4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on November 27th. The following week's summary is here.
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* Cologne meetup: 28 November 2015 05:00PM
* Prague Less Wrong Meetup: 02 December 2015 07:00PM
* San Antonio Meetup!: 29 November 2015 02:00PM... |
c22b6180-d29e-4067-8f9c-a2c44b794fd4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Critiques of prominent AI safety labs: Conjecture
Cross-posted from the EA Forum. See the original here. Internal linking has not been updated for LW due to time constraints and will take you back to the original post.
In this series, we consider AI safety organizations that have received more than $10 million per y... |
62c75e57-f84e-46f0-ae2e-c836e1e8ef40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Parenting: "Try harder next time" is bad advice for kids too
A post from last year that really stuck with me is Neel Nanda's "Stop pressing the Try Harder button". Key excerpt:
> And every time I thought about the task, I resolved to Try Harder, and felt a stronger sense of motivation, but this never translated into ... |
4cbffe86-881a-4985-8b59-3ac36ae516f6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The positive case for a focus on achieving safe AI?
As I understand it, there are two parts to the case for a focus on AI
safety research:
1. If we do achieve AGI and the AI safety / alignment problem isn't
solved by then, it poses grave, even existential, risks to
humanity. Given these grave risks, and some nontriv... |
c77d6097-1ac6-4c92-bbf5-41d7267b4e56 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post56
Based on research performed as a PIBBSS Fellow with Tomáš Gavenčiak as well as work supported by EA Funds and Open Philanthropy. tl;dr: I'm investigating whether LLMs track and update beliefs during chain-of-thought reasoning. Preliminary experiments with older models (without reasoning training) have not b... |
2c48991f-0eec-4392-8ee5-224ec005a4a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cryonics without freezers: resurrection possibilities in a Big World
> And fear not lest Existence closing your
> Account, should lose, or know the type no more;
> The Eternal Saki from the Bowl has pour'd
> Millions of Bubbles like us, and will pour.
>
> When You and I behind the Veil are past,
> Oh, but the long lo... |
c54b1070-b105-4112-9ff3-cecb89ededd9 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post2970
0. Introduction: why yet another post about subagents? I’ve recently been writing a sequence on how subagents can undermine impact penalties such as attainable utility preservation . I’m not happy with that sequence; it’s messy and without examples (apart from its first post), people didn’t understand it,... |
3d31f3f9-14b7-43f3-b595-a0442b5aaa94 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Intuitions about magic track the development of intuitive physics.
Cognition 214 (2021) 104762
Available online 26 May 2021
0010-0277/© 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Intuitions about magic track the development of intuitive physics
Casey Lewrya,*, Kaley Curtisb, Nadya Vasilyevaa, Fei Xub, Thomas L. Griffiths... |
6ca150f8-2c30-46e8-8f99-992bc1f74f2c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Disputing Definitions
I have watched more than one conversation—even conversations supposedly about cognitive science—go the route of disputing over definitions. Taking the classic example to be "If a tree falls in a forest, and no one hears it, does it make a sound?", the dispute often follows a course like this:
>... |
1bb13b72-0cb6-4256-b755-30d0535ff2e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | May Outreach Thread
Please share about any outreach that you have done to convey rationality-style ideas broadly, whether recent or not, which you have not yet shared on previous Outreach threads. The goal of having this thread is to organize information about outreach and provide community support and recognition for... |
bad6273f-44ad-4c28-a3c4-8f28c4d4b507 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Rationality Graz [Edit With Your Details]
(The following are our suggestions for what kind of information is best to include in the welcome post of your group, feel free to replace them with whatever you think is best)
What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do?
How frequentl... |
59c5e076-511b-4ef8-a24e-dba34efede98 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Coincidences are Improbable
Ada Palmer:
> events which are improbable and proximal are likely to have a causal link
I usually feel fine after eating food. One day, I decided to try a new dish at a restaurant. Afterward, my stomach is upset. I suspect that the new dish caused my stomachache. How justified is this sus... |
347d6c75-bafa-4375-b442-e92ccb8ff2ec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Circle Games
I may be reinventing a known thing in child development or psychology here, but bear with me.
The simplest games I see babies play — games simple enough that cats and dogs can play them too — are what I’d call “circle games.”
Think of the game of “fetch”. I throw the ball, Rover runs and brings it back... |
cc64672e-825b-46ee-9059-78c76c4703ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | TASP Ep 3 - Optimal Policies Tend to Seek Power
Welcome to the Technical AI Safety Podcast, the show where I interview computer scientists about their papers. This month I covered Optimal Policies Tend to Seek Power, which is closely related to Seeking Power is Often Robustly Instrumental in MDPs which is a part of th... |
34ae4bd2-bc9e-4672-ad56-9355525aaf63 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why could you be optimistic that the Singularity is Near?
A while ago I wrote briefly on why the Singularity might not be near and my estimates badly off. I saw it linked the other day, and realized that pessimism seemed to be trendy lately, which meant I ought to work on why one might be optimistic instead: http://ww... |
2c0cc9f0-4888-46a0-b0a9-19806810896d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Jan Leike – General Reinforcement Learning – CSRBAI 2016
all right welcome back our next speaker
is Michael who just finished his PhD at
the Australian National University
working with Martha Souter and just like
a week ago join the future of humanity
Institute as a machine learning
researcher there and his talk today... |
ea04be7d-35f3-4a62-9b8a-5d32b1121bb2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What do you think should be included in a series about conceptual media?
For a while now I've been planning to do a series of posts about conceptual media.
A conceptual medium is a an expressive medium that primarily serves to express abstract thoughts and ideas. It is analogous to the concept of an artistic medium (... |
382e9080-a4a2-4139-a06a-966ef6f984ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Our take on CHAI’s research agenda in under 1500 words
This work was supported by OAK, a monastic community in the Berkeley hills. It could not have been written without the daily love of living in this beautiful community.
----------------------------------------
Last week I attended the annual workshop of Stuart R... |
0f0981fd-802e-4965-b753-58642468a97f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Happy Notice Your Surprise Day!
One of the most powerful rationalist techniques is noticing your surprise.
It ties in to several deep issues. One of them relates to one of my favorite LW comments (the second highest upvoted one in Main):
> One of the things that I've noticed about this is that most people do not e... |
de4145c1-4024-404d-8069-3b835e49c607 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cognitive Biases due to a Narcissistic Parent, Illustrated by HPMOR Quotations
A pattern of cognitive biases not yet discussed here are the biases due to having a narcissistic parent who seeks validation through the child’s academic achievements.
HPMOR clearly shows these biases: Harry's mother is narcissistic, impre... |
caeb5894-96d5-436f-8a3a-551103781d8a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Wilds: A Benchmark of in-the-Wild Distribution Shifts
1 Introduction
---------------
Distribution shifts—where the training distribution differs from the test distribution—can significantly degrade the accuracy of machine learning (ML) systems deployed in the wild.
In this work, we consider two types of distributio... |
77eaf2f2-7a76-48ae-8bcf-b65f496d7089 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The Case for AI Safety Advocacy to the Public
**tl;dr**: Advocacy to the public is a large and neglected opportunity to advance AI Safety. AI Safety as a field is unfamiliar with advocacy, and it has reservations, some founded and others not. A deeper understanding of the dynamics of social change reveals the promise... |
bd47df6a-4cf6-447a-aa14-dc7a271e54d3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Hidden Community Detection on Two-layer Stochastic Models: a Theoretical Perspective.
1 Introduction
---------------
Community detection problem has occurred in a wide range of domains, from social network analysis to biological protein-protein interactions, and numerous algorithms have been proposed, based on the ... |
5da5766e-975b-4de7-8cc8-3a8784325189 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Combining causality with algorithmic information theory
Warning: maths.
Causal inference using the algorithmic Markov condition (Janzing and Schölkopf, 2008) replaces conditional independences between random variables, which define the structure of causal graphs, with algorithmic conditional independences between bit... |
2b50c816-db11-47f2-98cc-d70314f3a86a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Why are we sure that AI will "want" something?
I have no doubt that AI will some day soon surpass humans in all aspects of reasoning, that is pretty obvious. It is also clear to me that will surpass humans in the ability to do something, should it "want" to do it. And if requested to do something drastic, it can accid... |
f91a4c37-50e4-452e-9ed0-3245f2629d8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Repeated Play of Imperfect Newcomb's Paradox in Infra-Bayesian Physicalism
Yesterday, I watched the video series about Infra-Bayesianism. Link:
Some of it went over my head, so I tried to come up with a thought experiment to test my current level of understanding:
Imagine that you are playing a repeated game sim... |
ca3dc2bd-6410-4bd9-8072-42dc8a34cf33 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Team New York City
I have decided that I will not be working with Channel-Fireball: The Pantheon for Pro Tour: Magic Origins. The logistics involved in going to a team house for a week, and leaving my family for a week and a half, are too expensive for me to bear four times a year. Given that no sets will rotate out t... |
b56b1be4-4501-4643-83ae-4eefbac71ca2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A distillation of Evan Hubinger's training stories (for SERI MATS)
This post is a distillation of Evan Hubinger's post "how do we become confident in the safety of a machine learning system?", made as part of the summer 2022 SERI MATS program. While I have attempted to understand and extrapolate Evan's opinions, this ... |
e031e36a-2b04-47dc-9940-5134c3a26323 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Explaining the AI Alignment Problem to Tibetan Buddhist Monks
Introduction
As part of an exchange being facilitated between religion and science, a group of academics has been asked to compile a short description of their greatest scientific achievement/discovery that will be translated into Tibetan and presented to T... |
5cde73fc-9df8-4dc8-a94a-05cb613b8913 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does random reward evoke stronger habits?
http://measureofdoubt.com/2011/04/12/pulling-levers-killing-monsters-the-lure-of-unpredictable-rewards/ (how do I put a link like this in a word with blue letters?)
I've read that unpredictable rewards associated with a behavior actually encourage that behavior more effective... |
34014a50-f687-4a72-aaf4-154fa68dc88c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Peter Singer and Tyler Cowen transcript
In March 2009, Tyler Cowen (blog) interviewed Peter Singer about morality, giving, and how we can most improve the world. They are both thinkers I respect a lot, and I was excited to read their debate. Unfortunately the interview was available only as a video. I wanted a transcr... |
31c6b8c2-9023-4041-9370-885dee0c0a34 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A basic systems architecture for AI agents that do autonomous research
A lot of threat models describing how AIs might escape our control (e.g. self-exfiltration, hacking the datacenter) start out with AIs that are acting as agents working autonomously on research tasks (especially AI R&D) in a datacenter controlled b... |
813458e8-5a0f-4b46-8f89-b5be548714dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Microsoft and Google using LLMs for Cybersecurity
Google and Microsoft are integrating their LLMs, PaLM and GPT-4 respectively, into their cybersecurity services.
They basically have two uses cases:
1. Better User Interfaces + Analysis Help for Security Analysts
Using the LLM to explain incidents (cyberattacks or ... |
aefd9b0c-35d0-4048-85f3-40de0dec2eb3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Odds: Technical explanation
Odds express relative belief: we write "the odds for X versus Y are $17 : 2$" when we think that proposition X is 17/2 = 8.5 times as likely as proposition Y.%%note: The colon denotes that we are forming a set of odds. It does not denote division, as it might in French or German.%%
Odds do... |
f5a016ba-ffa9-4422-94c7-3158da4109ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's up with all the non-Mormons? Weirdly specific universalities across LLMs
tl;dr: Recently reported GPT-J experiments [1 2 3 4] prompting for definitions of points in the so-called "semantic void" (token-free regions of embedding space) were extended to fifteen other open source base models from four families, pr... |
8a90cbf5-f1cd-4568-88a9-675e3f3fa8e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | For anyone interested in life extension
http://www.businessinsider.com/valery-spiridonov-head-transplant-2015-4
Don't really have much to add beyond this. It's pretty awesome stuff though. The fact that this is even within the realm of possibility makes the argument for cryonics that much stronger. |
c5abdbd6-5208-4332-a699-a33897253bb0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [META] Recent Posts for Discussion and Main
This link
http://lesswrong.com/r/all/recentposts
gives a page which lists all the recent posts in both the Main and Discussion sections. I've posted it in the comments section before, but I decided to put it in a discussion post because it's a really handy way of accessing... |
7015a3da-a8c7-48ec-8b2c-483bd475c160 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Less Wrong Sydney 16th July Event for Less Wrong
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong Sydney 16th July Event for Less Wrong
WHEN: 16 July 2012 06:35:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 565-567 George Street, Sydney, Australia 2000
Hello everyone - the time has come for another meet up!
As per suggestions made ... |
f55d5316-3d8f-4db6-a65b-f28319247277 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trivial GPT-3.5 limitation workaround
I'm not going to do this. But what is preventing me, or anyone, from doing the following this afternoon:
Setup a paid OpenAI account to use GPT-3.5 via the Python interface.
Write a Python script that uses the GPT Python API. Locally, the Python script creates a fresh terminal s... |
5923ea6c-dd93-480e-b433-b93ae295f466 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I don't believe in the placebo effect
Have you heard this before? In clinical trials, medicines have to be compared to a placebo to separate the effect of the medicine from the psychological effect of taking the drug. The patient's belief in the power of the medicine has a strong effect on its own. In fact, for so... |
0cd879da-98f9-4799-80fa-d7a208739de3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Decision Theory with the Magic Parts Highlighted
I. The Magic Parts of Decision Theory
=====================================
You are throwing a birthday party this afternoon and want to decide where to hold it. You aren't sure whether it will rain or not. If it rains, you would prefer not to have committed to throwin... |
606254fe-06c3-46ab-89a6-be4146ab469b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Human-like systematic generalization through a meta-learning neural network
Step closer to AGI?
The classic argument made over 30 years ago by Fodor and Pylyshyn - that neural networks fundamentally lack the systematic compositional skills of humans due to their statistical nature - has cast a long shadow over neural... |
68499aa0-52d3-42b8-be59-1429cdf1f021 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Power-Seeking AI and Existential Risk
*Summary*
=========
For my [MLSS](https://www.effectivealtruism.org/virtual-programs/ml-safety-scholars-program) project, I created this distillation of “[Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.13353.pdf)” which was originally written in 2021 by Joe ... |
ba2cc2f7-37e7-4398-987c-f3e8c6f9b15c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gifts Which Money Cannot Buy
From a pure consumption perspective, the basic problem of gift-giving is that you usually know what you want better than I know what you want. If we both buy each other $20 gifts, then we’ll probably end up with things we want less than whatever we would have bought ourselves for $20. The ... |
6c15fe6e-e170-4f6b-93f9-697311ef989d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Letting it go: when you shouldn't respond to someone who is wrong
I'm requesting that people follow a simple guide when determining whether to respond to a post. This simple algorithm should raise the quality of discussion here.
* If you care about the answer to a question, you will research it.
* If you don't care... |
00c359ba-ab6f-48c5-83e3-953d86f6af91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where's the economic incentive for wokism coming from?
I'm trying to understand why several systems (Hollywood, Disney, universities, probably others) that are normally quite profit-focused are leaning so hard woke.
I get the thing about how, if you don't go woke hard enough, you could get canceled, which is bad for ... |
457f8667-98b2-4966-a232-446a8f5f173e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gratification: a useful concept, maybe new
I did it... my way!
Frank Sinatra, Paul Anka, and Elvis Presely, moral philosophers.
I like winning games. I particularly like winning when I can come up with a new and ingenious way of using the rules to get a bold new strategy. I don't particularly want... |
38ce9f7d-2474-4760-b998-5e5f5fd05aff | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Will we ever build a superintelligence?
Humanity hasn't yet built a superintelligence, and might not be able to without significantly more knowledge and computational resources. There could be an existential catastrophe that prevents us from ever attaining those, so it’s not certain that we’ll ever build a superintell... |
fb84da3c-8acb-44d5-ac91-e52da9fe4b6c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On saying "Thank you" instead of "I'm Sorry"
Back in 2016 or so, I ran into an idea going around the self-help / trauma-informed-therapy / cognitive-behavioral internet: Learn to say “thank you” instead of “I’m sorry”. It’s turned out to be one of the most transformative pieces of advice I’ve ever taken. I’d like to s... |
b7cbad85-f140-4b7a-8824-6510233ed5b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Exploring Tacit Linked Premises with GPT
I've been thinking about tacit linked premises on and off for the last few years in the context of arguments about AI and longtermism. They have seemed difficult to reason about without carefully going over individual arguments with a fine toothed comb because I hadn't come up ... |
bfe71ac4-bde8-4d2c-a26a-1e941aba5d3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : MIRIxAtlanta - Decision Theory 2
Discussion article for the meetup : MIRIxAtlanta - Decision Theory 2
WHEN: 17 August 2014 06:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 2388 Lawrenceville Hwy. Unit L. Decatur, GA 30033
We'll be talking about Updateless Decision Theory: http://lesswrong.com/lw/15m/towards_a_new_decision_theory... |
a82b3a9a-e725-4a49-820a-745fbecf8a01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Trying to make politics less irrational by cognitive bias-checking the US presidential debates
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96a25908-90a0-4cc2-96ba-06b29303a558 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Let’s use AI to harden human defenses against AI manipulation
*Views my own not my employers.*
Summary
=======
**tldr: AI may manipulate humans; we can defend against that risk better by optimising AIs to manipulate humans, seeing what manipulation techniques they use, and learning to detect those techniques.**
... |
39420585-659c-4f6f-9e83-8fb881999947 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Opinionated Look at Inference Rules
If you ask around what are the typical ways to infer information, most people will answer: Deductions, Inductions, and Abductions. Of course, there are more ways than that, but there is no unified approach in their classification. I want to challenge that.
The reason why I am un... |
19a65361-72eb-46a8-bc2b-c07d68900c52 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #137]: Quantifying the benefits of pretraining on downstream task performance
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look throu... |
93c349dd-63f2-4c83-8428-b5f999f640c8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | For UBI
For UBI
-------
All my friends know that I'm a huge fan of *Universal Basic Income* for a variety of reasons. I'll outline here a collection of my main arguments for UBI.
First things first, I'll define UBI: it has to be Universal, it has to be Basic, and it has to be an Income.
**Universal** means that ... |
33ba2731-5ece-45c9-bc5d-83af0bcd40ba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Exponential and non-exponential trends in information technology
*Co-authored with Lila Rieber.*
In [*The Singularity is Near*](http://smile.amazon.com/Singularity-Near-Humans-Transcend-Biology-ebook/dp/B000QCSA7C/), Ray Kurzweil writes that “every aspect of information and information technology is growing at an ex... |
a902fd3f-7e3c-4fdb-a714-444eb228fae4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | OpenAI's Sora is an agent
If you haven't already, take a look at Sora, OpenAI's new text-to-video AI. Sora can create scarily-realistic videos of nearly any subject. Unlike previous state-of-the-art AIs, the videos are coherent across time scales as long as one minute, and they can be much more complex.
Looking throu... |
0886abbf-440e-42f6-923e-2e0617eaceae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Irvine Meetup Wednesday August 31
Discussion article for the meetup : Irvine Meetup Wednesday August 31
WHEN: 31 August 2011 06:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 4187 Campus Dr, University Center, Irvine, CA 92612
This continues the weekly meetups in Irvine. As always the meetup at the outdoor food court in the Unive... |
70e31226-2d28-4223-b54b-d246d1129a79 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayeswatch 8: Antimatter
Vi woke up to the sound of Miriam disassembling the scout's control system.
"Please tell me you're not scuttling our ride home," said Vi.
"I'm not scuttling our ride home. Vaccinate yourself in case this leads to another Z-Day," said Miriam.
The suitcase was labeled with an orthonormal cube... |
fb565030-0871-4ac7-85fe-86621d829998 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New LW Meetups: Prague, Hasselt
This summary was posted to LW Main on September 26th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Czech's first Meetup Prague: 26 September 2014 07:30PM
* Hasselt Meetup: Brussels moves to Hasselt this month!: ... |
692447ae-2cee-4db2-b502-a6d5eeafd1c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Internal Double Crux: Video Games
Inspired by Jacob Falkovich's Internal Diet Crux.
Disputants: Read Bermudez, and Play On.
PO: State your hypothesis, sir!
RB: You are spending too much time playing video games. Now yours.
PO: You're mistaken; I'm indulging in a reasonable amount of downtime.
RB: Using the Sapien... |
4b03f38a-c825-4b49-ac5a-1dc43540531b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | From free-energy to embodied valuing: weighted active inference in everyday life
|
1d916bf1-1e7e-4843-9580-b5085670c6f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Steelmanning Inefficiency
When considering writing a hypothetical apostasy or steelmanning an opinion I disagreed with, I looked around for something worthwhile, both for me to write and others to read. Yvain/Scott has already steelmanned Time Cube, which cannot be beaten as an intellectual challenge, but probably did... |
acb46b68-4126-4be2-89a0-a5fd1ddf8d54 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sparse Autoencoders: Future Work
Mostly my own writing, except for the 'Better Training Methods' section which was written by @Aidan Ewart.
We made a lot of progress in 4 months working on Sparse Autoencoders, an unsupervised method to scalably find monosemantic features in LLMs, but there's still plenty of work to d... |
b60eba5b-83e8-4aa2-b9c8-fb80b3a935dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Raphaël Millière on Generalization and Scaling Maximalism
I interviewed Raphaël Millière, a Presidential Scholar in Society and Neuroscience at Columbia University about his critic of “scaling maximalism” and his takes on AGI. This is part of an on-going effort where I talk to people who are skeptical of existential r... |
d675f77a-8c48-40c6-b64d-3ce0910c6f1b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Three Major Singularity Schools
I’ve noticed that Singularity discussions seem to be splitting up into three major schools of thought: Accelerating Change, the Event Horizon, and the Intelligence Explosion.
* **Accelerating Change:**
+ *Core claim:* Our intuitions about change are linear; we expect roughly as much... |
d5e8b752-9364-42a0-8c3a-74acb60646f8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Why Would AI "Aim" To Defeat Humanity?
*Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc.*
I’ve [argued](https://www.cold-takes.com/ai-could-defeat-all-of-us-combined/) that AI systems could defeat all of humanity combined, if (for whatever reason) they were directed toward that goal.... |
6b27feb1-d518-481a-86a7-f5395828594a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quantum without complication
Learning quantum mechanics involves two things:
1. learning the fundamentals, the nature of the stuff of which Nature is made; and
2. loads of universe-imposed incidental complexity, spinors and vector calculus and Lie algebras and Hilbert spaces, in order to be able to effectively appl... |
9caf8121-b3e1-4613-a60a-595aa7ca76fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI safety from first principles: Goals and Agency
The fundamental concern motivating the second species argument is that AIs will gain too much power over humans, and then use that power in ways we don’t endorse. Why might they end up with that power? I’ll distinguish three possibilities:
1. AIs pursue power for th... |
926d8558-ef3d-479a-aa45-3e3913ad7909 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (Summary) Sequence Highlights - Thinking Better on Purpose
Rationality is a very useful thing to learn, but while there is good curated reading material, it's not always easy reading. More than once I've wanted to introduce someone to the topics, but couldn't hope for them to dig through a pile of essays.
This is an ... |
5e21573e-fd38-474c-b173-0a7270eb01b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Musical Outgroups
[Content warning: Politics. Something I will regret writing. Cross-posted from Grand, Unified, Empty.]
A lot of this extends from Scott Alexander’s I Can Tolerate Anything Except the Outgroup, but if you don’t want to read the whole thing I’ll quote a few key definitions up front. Specifically:
> T... |
a8d2a787-058c-4802-9fe8-a6ea890ed3a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Creating a Discord server for Mechanistic Interpretability Projects
TL;DR: I think there likely are a lot of people who want to work on mechanistic interpretability projects but couldn’t get into AI safety camp, so I created a Discord server for people to organize themselves into such projects. I’m going to lead one o... |
55f482f4-39c4-4611-a6b1-7e32eee7141c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Robin Hanson on whether governments can squash COVID-19
Summary: Hanson argues that Western governments are unlikely to be competent enough to both squash COVID-19 and prevent new cases from entering from neighbouring lax countries. Final two paragraphs:
> Before we all jump off this cliff together, can we at least c... |
1b6e5cca-9c1a-4441-8c3b-19b13cb9d10b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A Proof Against Oracle AI
Armstrong et al. [suggest](http://www.aleph.se/papers/oracleAI.pdf) that an Oracle AI could be a solution to confine the harmful potential of artificial intelligence.
While the benefits are certainly considerable, I believe that even an oracle could lead to an existential risk, or at least... |
7e1ebc80-ddd4-43cf-b2ce-c8fb683ac609 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Get Rich Slowly
On the last day of my MBA’s finance class, the professor admitted that very few us are ever going to use the formula for return-on-debt in our lives. Instead, for that class he gave us a single sheet of paper titled “Bill’s simple and suboptimal personal investment guide” and explained his simple and s... |
19fed501-8895-403c-8338-d066e345ea80 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | From GPT to AGI
Epistemic status: Shower thoughts / I have an idea, but not much knowledge
While the the smallest GPT-3 model (125M) has 12 attention layers, each with 12x 64-dimension heads, the largest GPT-3 model (175B) uses 96 attention layers, each with 96x 128-dimension heads.
I would expect that with increase... |
8b0efc48-bd0c-4f26-92a7-41d6d1ac5b02 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | To the Robobassinet and Progress
Most parents of small babies, if they could, would be happy to have someone gently cuddle, shush, and rock their baby back to sleep when they needed settling at night. Babies can't comfortably soothe themselves to sleep yet, but taking care of them is exhausting work.
Wealthy people h... |
db3d91e7-809d-4cbe-97de-a4b0949af29b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Normative Rule for Decision-Changing Metrics
Yesterday I wrote about the difficulties of ethics and potential people. Namely, that whether you bring a person into existence or not changes the moral metric by which your decision is measured. At first all I had was the observation suggesting that the issue was complex... |
d082f5db-3f8d-4161-bf0d-766063be3e54 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Language Models as Zero-Shot Planners: Extracting Actionable Knowledge for Embodied Agents.
1 Introduction
---------------
Large language models (LLMs) have made impressive advances in language generation and understanding in recent years (Devlin et al., [2018](#bib.bib10); Radford et al., [2019](#bib.bib33); Raffe... |
19930e5d-23dc-4f22-acc5-380847ee1ed8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does scheming lead to adequate future empowerment? (Section 2.3.1.2 of "Scheming AIs")
This is Section 2.3.1.2 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?”. There’s also a summary of the full report here (audio here). The summary covers most of the main points and technic... |
35d1ec55-468f-4495-abba-18d51db0476a | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Imagine looking at your hand, and knowing nothing of cells, nothing of biochemistry, nothing of DNA. You’ve learned some anatomy from dissection, so you know your hand contains muscles; but you don’t know why muscles move instead of lying there like clay. Your hand is just . . . stuff . . . and for some reason it move... |
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