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53e5ef6b-38b1-4b79-8c1d-bd1fbba55187 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #110: Of Course You Know…
Yeah. That happened yesterday. This is real life.
I know we have to ensure no one notices Gemini 2.5 Pro, but this is rediculous.
That’s what I get for trying to go on vacation to Costa Rica, I suppose.
I debated waiting for the market to open to learn more. But f*** it, we ball.
TABLE... |
d18b8150-fdca-474e-afc4-98ac3b58b2e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, November 2011
Discuss things here if they don't deserve a post in Main or Discussion.
If a topic is worthy and receives much discussion, make a new thread for it. |
2339ee83-a2ad-4d3f-a961-927902bb1bc6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I will Win my Bet with Eliezer Yudkowsky
The bet may be found here: http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Bets_registry#Bets_decided_eventually
An AI is made of material parts, and those parts follow physical laws. The only thing it can do is to follow those laws. The AI’s “goals” will be a description of what it per... |
75581e2e-fc3d-4450-9d8b-9f1198902246 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Butterfly Ideas
Or “How I got my hyperanalytical friends to chill out and vibe on ideas for 5 minutes before testing them to destruction”
Sometimes talking with my friends is like intellectual combat, which is great. I am glad I have such strong cognitive warriors on my side. But not all ideas are ready for intellect... |
4d5806ef-8f1a-4ae0-b25f-c7d8aa55f708 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | -
- |
c1d857e7-b70b-4f94-8bcc-6248e0b524a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Entropy, and Short Codes
Suppose you have a system X that's equally likely to be in any of 8 possible states:
> {X1, X2, X3, X4, X5, X6, X7, X8.}
There's an extraordinarily ubiquitous quantity—in physics, mathematics, and even biology—called entropy; and the entropy of X is 3 bits. This means that, on average, we'l... |
b38cd79a-c15c-4c35-81c9-976f8b46f76e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DM Parenting
Cause no one will question your ethics if you refer to yourself as a Dungeon Mom.
----------------------------------------
I snort experimentation to feel alive. It’s a certain type of orientation to life, completely at odds with all parenting advice about predictability and routine.
Enter DM parenting... |
ae7a3dc7-5afb-4511-8ab6-855c9bd65731 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Alignment's phlogiston
*Epistemic status: quick and dirty reaction to the claim that alignment research is like archaeology. I wouldn't trust anyone suggesting that scientific and technological revolutions can be simply broken down into a series of discoveries. But I like the phlogiston metaphor, nevertheless.*
I... |
c9fece6b-0307-430d-ad98-bdec0a281308 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will you let your kid play football?
Sparked by a somewhat vitriolic discussion on a dadgroup I'm in. Would you let your kid play football, if so what restrictions? If not, what other sports are allowed, and with what restrictions?
https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/144/5/e20192180/38225/Concussion-Incid... |
94e9c79f-f348-45d3-b2e9-bfdf7b657130 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is "Regularity" another Phlogiston?
People have a tendency to say meaningless things, often without realizing it. An extreme example is to attribute a poorly understood phenomena like lightning to "magic" or "God," which is really just a fancy way of saying "I don't know why this thing happened." Unfortunately, it's p... |
d5d89175-7973-4bba-8c19-82685aec0ec4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Energy efficiency of MacCready Gossamer Albatross
*Updated Nov 9, 2020*
The MacCready *Gossamer Albatross*:
* covered around 2.0—4.6 m/kJ
* and moved mass at around 0.1882 —0.4577 kg⋅m/J
Details
-------
The **MacCready *Gossamer Albatross*** was a human-powered flying machine that crossed the English Channel i... |
4e4bc90e-7fe2-4695-997b-461047aac8ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Random question about starfish
Anyone know how long a starfish can survive on land, and if it matters especially whether there is a hot sun.
I promise this will turn out to be (at least somewhat) important and Less-Wrong relevant. Googling for the answer gives me a bunch of "wiki-answers" type sites that I don't trus... |
373cdc0d-1d5c-411e-9eb8-5b6bca6d8fe8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Meta-World: A Benchmark and Evaluation for Multi-Task and Meta Reinforcement Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
While reinforcement learning (RL) has achieved some success in domains such as assembly [DBLP:journals/corr/LevineFDA15], ping pong [mulling2013learning], in-hand manipulation [andrychowicz2018learni... |
86c4201e-5301-46b4-937c-7d43032201dd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Stop-gradients lead to fixed point predictions
*Johannes Treutlein and Rubi Hudson worked on this post as part of* [*SERI MATS*](https://www.serimats.org/)*, under the mentorship of Evan Hubinger. Rubi has also received mentorship from Leo Gao. We thank Erik Jenner for helpful discussions and Alexander Pan for bringin... |
d174434a-7db1-48d6-b752-a980dcfe4a88 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Infra-Bayesian physicalism: proofs part II
*This post is an appendix to "[Infra-Bayesian physicalism: a formal theory of naturalized induction](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/gHgs2e2J5azvGFatb/infra-bayesian-physicalism-a-formal-theory-of-naturalized)".*
**Proposition 2.16:** *Consider some Γ0.mjx-chtml {displ... |
16709dbf-fef4-49c8-a407-d7783be6ec7a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GPT2XL_RLLMv3 vs. BetterDAN, AI Machiavelli & Oppo Jailbreaks
This post contains a significant amount of harmful content; please read with caution. Lastly, I want to apologize to all the AI labs and owners of language models I attacked in the process of creating this post. We have yet to solve the alignment problem, s... |
65dca4e2-7d01-49d3-94f1-8761c1d06804 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, February 15-28, 2013
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, even in Discussion, it goes here. |
f6919fa0-460d-4602-85cb-bb401fb3ebec | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Has the Symbol Grounding Problem just gone away?
A few years ago, the symbol grounding problem was widely considered a significant challenge in AI discussions. I believed that it would likely be addressed as a side effect of capability improvements, without requiring specific breakthroughs or attention, unlike others ... |
97745831-b950-4f87-907d-5dbd225d4592 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | History of the Public Suffix List
Are forums.example.com and mail.example.com the same site? I'd say yes, since they're probably run by the same people. What about example-a.github.io and example-b.github.io? I'd say no, since GitHub allows anyone to register pages like username.github.io. I can make my judgments as a... |
bd85862e-249e-4562-9f4d-6f01d904d346 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Seattle Rationality Reading Group
Discussion article for the meetup : Seattle Rationality Reading Group
WHEN: 29 February 2016 06:30:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: Paul G. Allen Center, 185 Stevens Way, Seattle, Washington
Come meet other Seattle-area aspiring rationalists to discuss the week's reading, learn rationa... |
ecad0cc7-f853-49e4-b1b8-5f4258e1856e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are short timelines actually bad?
Sam Altman recently posted the following:
I have seen very little serious discussion about whether short timelines are actually bad. This is surprising given that nearly everyone I talk to in the AI risk community seems to think that they are.
Of course, the question "was the foun... |
a936b047-fb5b-4ed7-8ebb-44b04bf73eba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forethought: a new AI macrostrategy group
Forethought[1] is a new AI macrostrategy research group cofounded by Max Dalton, Will MacAskill, Tom Davidson, and Amrit Sidhu-Brar.
We are trying to figure out how to navigate the (potentially rapid) transition to a world with superintelligent AI systems. We aim to tackle th... |
138a8384-7816-4479-aa7e-4772754ae8de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thinking About a Technical Solution to Coordination Problems
I was just reading an article online, and one of the comments mentioned a political issue (the legality of corporate contributions to political campaigns). One of the responses what a comment saying "Not until we abandon this mentality, we the victims are th... |
f74dba5b-5d5a-443e-aebf-e60649c9d2f1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some background for reasoning about dual-use alignment research
This is pretty basic. But I still made a bunch of mistakes when writing this, so maybe it's worth writing. This is background to a specific case I'll put in the next post.
It's like a a tech tree
If we're looking at the big picture, then whether some pi... |
a29aef92-9404-4abb-952c-1ffcf9eb0b54 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #121 Part 1: New Connections
That’s right. I said Part 1. The acceleration continues.
I do not intend to let this be a regular thing. I will (once again!) be raising the bar for what gets included going forward to prevent that. But for now, we’ve hit my soft limit, so I’m splitting things in two, mostly by traditi... |
497b8717-c184-4406-9046-dbd4cfc87c84 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Excessive AI growth-rate yields little socio-economic benefit.
Basic argument
==============
In short —
1. There exists an **adaptive limit** representing the maximum rate at the economy can adapt to new technology.
2. Exceeding this limit yields no socio-economic benefit, in the general case.
3. Exceeding this limi... |
d5974947-2a1d-4425-9b70-11d19c89fe47 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | First Solo Bus Ride
Our kids have been riding the bus since they were little, though less often since we started sharing a car almost four years ago. For a while the oldest, age 10, has been asking when they could start taking the bus on their own. A few days ago they did, and it went well!
We worked up to it gradual... |
237739d6-98e6-4061-af50-08b3d2a6e2c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Enhanced Autodidacticism for the Chronically Lazy and Hyperactive
Takeaway seems to be: stay light on your feet; keep everything in the short term, but build habits that will serve you in the long term; make sure you're always doing something that holds your interest.
http://somebeautifulplace.tumblr.com/po... |
d93f7c4b-a736-41bb-ac8f-026bb4f2e6a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Democracy Is in Danger, but Not for the Reasons You Think
(Cross-posted from my blog. I apologize that I was not able to shrink the images for this site.)
Congratulations, Earthling voter! Your party has won the election! The Good politicians you elected will enact Good policies, to make Good things happen and hel... |
d956c276-7a3e-4e21-b5eb-b6a8ff301f00 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Darwin Results
Epistemic Status: True story (numbers are best recollections)
This is post three in the sequence Zbybpu’f Nezl.
Previously (required): The Darwin Game, The Darwin Pregame.
I
It was Friday night and time to play The Darwin Game. Excited players gathered around their computers to view the scoreboa... |
a4200353-93ed-4007-aa03-1c4f4f679574 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Zen and Rationality: Equanimity
This is post 8/? about the intersection of my decades of LW-style rationality practice and my several years of Zen practice.
In today's installment, I look at equanimity from a rationalist perspective.
In Zen in particular and various Buddhist lineages in general there's a lot of talk... |
ca1b32dd-aace-4ac6-a4fd-c0de42b69266 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Houston, TX
Discussion article for the meetup : Houston, TX
WHEN: 18 October 2014 02:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 6100 Main St, Houston, TX 77005
On Saturday, October 18th we will be meeting at the Salento in the Brochstein Pavilion at Rice University at 2:00PM. Look for the Less Wrong sign.
Discussion article... |
819d4316-37a7-4c68-9a91-f48bef681766 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knowledge is not just digital abstraction layers
Knowledge is not just digital abstraction layers
Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome financial support to make further posts like this possible.
Epistemic status: This is in-progress thinking.
----------------------------------------
This post i... |
26dbde3f-a401-49a8-b171-898e90f051e4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Artificial General Intelligence
Cognitive Technologies
Managing Editors: D. M. Gabbay J. Siekmann
Editorial Board: A. Bundy J. G. Carbonell
M. Pinkal H. Uszkoreit M. V eloso W . W ahlster
M. J. W ooldridge
Advisory Board:
Luigia Carlucci Aiello
Franz Baader
W olfgang Bibel
Leonard BolcCraig Boutilier
Ron Brachman
Bruc... |
90c3e976-6b1d-4ac4-ad86-79dd31056230 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | OpenAI: Preparedness framework
OpenAI released a beta version of their responsible scaling policy (though they don't call it that). See summary page, full doc, OpenAI twitter thread, and Jan Leike twitter thread [edit: and Zvi commentary]. Compare to Anthropic's RSP and METR's Key Components of an RSP.
It's not done,... |
bb13d4b4-d5ca-4ca7-86fb-80c86edc603d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | [Our World in Data] AI timelines: What do experts in artificial intelligence expect for the future? (Roser, 2023)
*Linkposting, tagging and excerpting - in this case, excerpting the article's conclusion - in accord with '*[*Should pretty much all content that's EA-relevant and/or created by EAs be (link)posted to the ... |
deb86b55-ec17-410b-b983-e321a11e11ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Louisiana Gets Vaccine Passports Right
Quietly, with very little fanfare, Louisiana got vaccine passports right.
https://lawallet.com/covid19/
What's not to like?
First off, let's take a peek at their guiding principles:
These principles look a lot like what Jeffrey Zients was hinting at when asked at a White ... |
64331e1b-f9a8-4c7b-bf19-9276166334d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Philosoplasticity: On the Inevitable Drift of Meaning in Recursive Self-Interpreting Systems
Introduction: A Fundamental Limitation
The alignment community has produced increasingly sophisticated frameworks for constraining advanced AI systems, from constitutional approaches to RLHF to complex oversight mechanisms. T... |
0efb1444-e248-4371-b6b3-61d3b4641571 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scalable And Transferable Black-Box Jailbreaks For Language Models Via Persona Modulation
Paper coauthors: Rusheb Shah, Quentin Feuillade--Montixi, Soroush J. Pour, Arush Tagade, Stephen Casper, Javier Rando.
Motivation
Our research team was motivated to show that state-of-the-art (SOTA) LLMs like GPT-4 and Claude... |
6fefe6b6-e09e-487b-8f2d-ae6780651c69 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agisf | AGI Safety Fund | Towards Best Practices in AGI Safety and Governance
CENTRE FOR THE GOVERNANCE OF AI•1A survey of expert opinion | May 2023Towards best practices in AGIsafety and governanceJonas Schuett, Noemi Dreksler, Markus Anderljung, DavidMcCaffary, Lennart Heim, Emma Bluemke, Ben Garfinkel
Towards best practices in AGI safety
and... |
538bbd05-f60c-45d6-bacc-858904e3fd31 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Energy efficiency of North American P-51 Mustang
*Updated Nov 5, 2020*
The North American P-51 Mustang:
* flew around 0.073—0.092 m/kJ
* and moved mass at around 0.25 – 0.50 kg.m/J
Details
-------
The *North American P-51 Mustang* was a 1940 US WWII fighter and fighter-bomber.[1](https://aiimpacts.org/energy-e... |
261bae57-988c-4bab-8eea-d5fabe6d6a20 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Leukemia Has Won
|
ebe80a59-772f-46cb-8bf9-c7e113298402 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | E.A. Megaproject Ideas
There are a number of "megaprojects" which I'd like to see people in the E.A. community carry out. Posts like this have been enormously helpful to me as I've browsed the E.A. forum. This is my first post on this forum, so please be nice :)
Without further ado:
**E.A. Megaprojects Ideas**
* Do... |
8123a3b8-ef1c-41e6-9ee6-edf3f507fdc9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | acronyms ftw
Everyday acronyms are some of the most usefwl innovations for making language more efficient. Conlangs are too hard to make well and too expensive to coordinate switching to, but we can profitably innovate on the margin.
Never really understood why this didn't take off tbh.
By default there's huge inerti... |
a70104e7-a075-4727-9bd4-a7e75c3ab5af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The origins of virtue
I read Matt Ridley’s ‘The origins of virtue’ just now. It was full of engaging anecdotes and irrelevant details, which I don’t find that useful for understanding, so I wrote down the interesting points. On the off chance anyone else would like a summary, I publish it here. I recommend reading it ... |
589220c6-660d-46df-a16d-9b2fe6da86b5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Troubles With CEV Part2 - CEV Sequence
**The CEV Sequence Summary**: The CEV sequence consists of three posts tackling important aspects of CEV. It covers conceptual, practical and computational problems of [CEV's current form](/singinst.org/upload/CEV.html). [*On What Selves Are*](/lw/a2f/on_what_selves_are_cev_seque... |
f0cd5d6f-fb04-4538-9f7e-23ed7a2537be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, July 1-15, 2012
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, even in Discussion, it goes here. |
de3c9431-3793-4367-8f15-6c7572e52622 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3255
There's a lot to recommend with the debate approach proposed by Geoffrey Irving, Paul Christiano, and Dario Amodei. In it, competing AIs will trade rival claims, seeking to find flaws in the other's claims, continuing until one of them is grounded in something checkable. The paper presents an example wher... |
e983503c-b3bb-45c3-a3e4-94842989decc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing the Study Group for Progress
This fall I will be hosting a study/discussion group on the history, economics and philosophy of progress.
The primary attraction of the program is a weekly Q&A, each week featuring a different special guest—usually a historian or economist who has written on science, technolog... |
18d1c6ea-1bc5-4081-b6ca-ee073d18a3a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci Tax Day: Adventurers and Assessments
This is an entry in the 'Dungeons & Data Science' series, a set of puzzles where players are given a dataset to analyze and an objective to pursue using information from that dataset.
Estimated Complexity: 3/5 (this is a guess, I will update based on feedback/seeing how t... |
05a5585d-9208-402d-93cf-ee342fe0bc84 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | The Transformative Potential of Artificial Intelligence
The Transformative Potential of Artificial Intelligence Ross Gruetzemacher¹ and Jess Whittlestone² ¹ Wichita State University, W. Frank Barton School of Business, ross.gruetzemacher@wichita.edu ² University of Cambridge, Leverhulme Centre for the Future of Inte... |
cf84f590-7574-4376-84e6-302f558083f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Things I have been using LLMs for
There are quite a few different things you can use LLMs for, and I think we’re still only discovering most of them. Here are a few of the ones I’ve come up with.
My favorite chatbot is Claude Sonnet. It does have a tendency for sycophancy – for example, it will go “what a fascinating... |
c505e91e-fec1-4d85-a0ce-83136369b0c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some thoughts on having children
Disclaimer: I am not a parent.
I've seen a bit of discussion here on whether or not to have children. Most of the discussion that I have seen are about the moral case, but there are factors as well. I'd like to talk about three aspects of parenting that I suspect are the main reasons ... |
ddd9b0f6-2080-453d-b332-b32c86f03f1d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reconsolidation Through Questioning
At this level, you're actively asking yourself questions about the correctness of the schema. You're not looking for any particular answers to these questions, or trying to get any result, you're simply holding the questions and seeing what comes up.
When coaching and teaching work... |
c20cb428-b5da-4749-a9ab-b9f12a4358be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Holding your own LW Solstice
Winter is coming, and with it, the Less Wrong Solstice, a celebration of humanity's progress over the centuries and how our relationship with sun and winter has changed.
There is, of course, the public meetup in NYC. But I've now had two different people, in different regions, discuss wit... |
68ca0134-6248-4fc2-98ea-150de630f566 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "The Holy Grail" of portfolio management
TL;DR: Bayes' Theorem : Rationality :: Uncorrelated returns : Investing
Recently I gave a talk on EMH: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3TiEZzw4ikneLGp4J/dissolving-the-is-the-efficient-market-hypothesis-dead
In there I had a bonus slide about what I call the "Efficient Market... |
97ba4669-bcfd-4847-8604-d7222263ec4b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Shape of Heaven
Status: Just for fun
Scene: Some kind of lobby, where various people and/or avatars stand around and discuss issues that went well or badly in their respective worlds.* A common topic of conversation: AI, and why it went wrong. The following is extracted from one of those conversations.
It starte... |
bfbaed60-a5cf-45c7-9010-57d51cb0ed13 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Being a Robust Agent
Second version, updated for the 2018 Review. See change notes.
There's a concept which many LessWrong essays have pointed at it (indeed, I think the entire sequences are exploring). But I don't think there's a single post really spelling it out explicitly:
You might want to become a more robust... |
64e3166f-8481-46ef-b307-32acfdb4a6e5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Refuting common objections to cognitive enhancement
I've tended to think that bioethics is maybe the most profoundly useless field in mainstream philosophy. I might sum it up by saying that it's superficially similar to machine ethics except that the objects of its warnings and cautions are all unambiguously go... |
85ec6838-900c-4b53-b364-9d96573dc2bc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Linkpost: Github Copilot productivity experiment
> We recruited 95 professional developers, split them randomly into two groups, and timed how long it took them to write an HTTP server in JavaScript. One group used GitHub Copilot to complete the task, and the other one didn’t. We tried to control as many factors as we... |
a30dd1e1-7b77-4be5-a316-36b86f6f3230 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fourth London Rationalist Meeting?
It's been the first Sunday of the month so far, but I haven't seen any announcement for this month yet. There was a discussion, but no conclusion. Is anything happening?
ETA: This would have appeared a day and a half ago, but I did not notice that it had only been stored as a draft ... |
a4ef38b5-fcdd-4604-9e77-11777231663d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Asimov's Chronology of Science and Discovery
[Asimov's Chronology of Science and Discovery](http://www.amazon.com/Asimovs-Chronology-Science-Discovery-Asimov/dp/0060156120/) is a really fun and strange book. I don’t know that I would recommend reading it per se, but it’s a great book to skim. It's been one of my sourc... |
fabfb30e-9eab-406c-b867-a32f8b70b6ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #130]: A new AI x-risk podcast, and reviews of the field
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newslet... |
b5cd4d28-74b1-44e7-be9a-12caebb02adc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Token and Taboo
What in retrospect seem like serious moral crimes were often widely accepted while they were happening. This means that moral progress can require intellectual progress.[1] Intellectual progress often requires questioning received ideas, but questioning moral norms is sometimes taboo. For example, in A... |
a99114b5-7753-4ddd-b6c0-7972e57e88fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does Robust Agency Require a Self?
Does robust agency require a self? The author admits a great deal of exasperation with this question. What is agency? What is a self? Previous drafts attempted to define these, only to stall out in semantic quagmires. The truth is, if we set aside Cartesian dualism, the "self" is a u... |
a58f4198-2778-44f1-8484-0d75dab3a71c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | FLI Podcast: On Superforecasting with Robert de Neufville
Essential to our assessment of risk and ability to plan for the future is our understanding of the probability of certain events occurring. If we can estimate the likelihood of risks, then we can evaluate their relative importance and apply our risk mitigation ... |
ef7f5909-299b-46bd-89b4-81888732156a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Response to Aschenbrenner's "Situational Awareness"
(Cross-posted from Twitter.)
My take on Leopold Aschenbrenner's new report: I think Leopold gets it right on a bunch of important counts.
Three that I especially care about:
1. Full AGI and ASI soon. (I think his arguments for this have a lot of holes, but he ... |
55978f28-75e2-4f2d-a54a-926b83a93d49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
WHEN: 24 July 2016 03:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture
We'll be meeting in the courtyard to hang out, play games, and engage in fun conversation.
Upcoming meetups:
* Jul... |
583d996d-b91b-4ee9-88f1-bc4c6aa22317 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Calling references: Rational or irrational?
Over the past couple of decades, I've sent out a few hundred resumes (maybe, I don't know, 300 or 400--my spreadsheet for 2013-2015 lists 145 applications). Out of those I've gotten at most two dozen interviews and a dozen job offers.
Throughout that time I've maintained a... |
012ccbc2-b635-423e-828d-fdd52fd03644 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Choosing the right dish
1
From what I understand, despite its simplicity, there aren't many dishes held in higher esteem by the culinary community[1] than the French omelette.
To all of you uncultured numskulls out there who don't spend hours upon hours watching YouTube videos about cooking like I do, a French omelet... |
a3523f6d-3867-42a8-a3c2-9eef70b221fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Utrecht: Climate Change
Discussion article for the meetup : Utrecht: Climate Change
WHEN: 02 November 2014 03:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Film Café Oskar, Slachtstraat 5, Utrecht
We have biweekly meetups in a pub in Utrecht, near Central Station. For details, please look on meetup.com which is supposed to be up... |
b385f91e-8b1f-46b5-9c74-238c3fa471b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The best 'free solo' (rock climbing) video
I think this might be the 'best' 'free solo' free solo video (including "Free Solo" the movie, or any other climbing movie I've seen):
* I tried free solo with Alex Honnold Insane experience - YouTube
I was pretty disappointed by "Free Solo" – not much climbing!
(Watch "T... |
b2cbbd96-16ce-423f-a203-9a90ee597180 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] OpenAI LP
https://openai.com/blog/openai-lp/
> We’ll need to invest billions of dollars in upcoming years into large-scale cloud compute, attracting and retaining talented people, and building AI supercomputers.
> We want to increase our ability to raise capital while still serving our mission, and no pre-exi... |
a4359e6d-e573-4558-a6de-1ff0ceec2b19 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Suggestion: Less Wrong Writing Circle?
This community has a recurring interest in "rationalist fiction," and several members who are writers. I wonder if it would be useful to create a space where Less Wrong members could provide each other constructive criticism and encouragement on in-progress original writing proje... |
c1fdd75d-2e42-4e97-a5e2-31c65f12a710 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Correctly Calibrated Trust
Chana from the CEA Community Health team posted this to the EA Forum, where it sadly seems to have not gotten a lot of traction. I actually think it's a quite important post, so I am signal-boosting it here. On the surface level it talks a lot about EA, but I a lot of it also straightforward... |
187767b2-4ca4-4518-b881-86e016d2334f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A simple guide to life
I first made a version of this chart seven years ago today. It’s worth a re-up.
The meaning of this chart is:
* Everything you do should be justified either by being inherently enjoyable, or by being important for some other purpose. Absolutely minimize activities that satisfy neither of thes... |
0fc6867f-22e9-48f2-921c-c690d6326b6a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Scarcity
Today's post, Scarcity was originally published on 27 March 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Describes a few pieces of experimental evidence showing that objects or information which are believed to be in short supply are valued more than the same objects or information would be on ... |
262da303-19d6-4e0b-9a04-68cb958cf5db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Floating Festival Jul 22-25
The Seasteading Institute had to cancel their annual on-water get-together, Ephemerisle, after being quoted ridiculous insurance costs, and it came back as the unofficial Floating Festival - no tickets, no organizers, you just show up with a boat. (Or find someone else who already has or i... |
6f699bf3-16d6-422c-9f9c-7ddb78ba2647 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Neuralink Monkey Demo
The Neuralink YouTube channel (which is apparently a thing that exists) released a demo of their technology using Pager, a nine year old Macaque monkey.
WHO'S A GOOD MONKEY! YES YOU ARE!
Video Overview
In the video, Pager plays two games using a joystick. For the first, he moves a curs... |
73f569cd-8ce0-44f4-9874-e015669f8aff | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | OpenAI's GPT-4 Safety Goals
OpenAI has [told us in some
detail](https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4-system-card.pdf) what
they've done to make GPT-4 safe.
This post will complain about some misguided aspects of OpenAI's goals.
### Heteronormativity and Amish Culture
OpenAI wants GPT to avoid the stereotype ("bia... |
79e2f04b-1a48-4b5a-9fbe-b70ef717002e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some scary life extension dilemmas
Let's imagine a life extension drug has been discovered. One dose of this drug extends one's life by 49.99 years. This drug also has a mild cumulative effect, if it has been given to someone who has been dosed with it before it will extend their life by 50 years.
Under these const... |
c2bf705a-7665-46b9-ab53-8bcd00aad950 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Benign model-free RL
In my [last post](https://medium.com/ai-control/directions-and-desiderata-for-ai-control-b60fca0da8f4), I described three research areas in AI control that I see as central: reward learning, robustness, and deliberation.
In this post I argue that these three pieces may be *sufficient* to get a [b... |
907893b1-4339-40cc-afbc-9b77a7bf4dc1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Anthropically Blind: the anthropic shadow is reflectively inconsistent
For the purposes of this post, the anthropic shadow is the type of inference found in [*How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many?*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jE3npTEBtHnZBuAcg/how-many-lhc-failures-is-too-many).
>
> "Anthropic principle! If the ... |
3c867421-9d6e-4a76-b64e-30115e328e87 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should I Finish My Bachelor's Degree?
To some, it might seem like a strange question. If you think of being college-educated as a marker of class (or personhood), the fact that I don't have a degree at age of thirty-six (!!) probably looks like a scandalous anomaly, which it would be only natural for me to want to rem... |
f2e2aea9-d017-4ae9-b3bc-e9bd7b4e9f24 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Implementing a Transformer from scratch in PyTorch - a write-up on my experience
Introduction
As is discussed in posts such as this one, a good way to test your skills as a machine learning research engineer is to implement a Transformer from scratch in PyTorch. This is exactly what I did. Below I am sharing my experi... |
58995b71-511d-430b-8746-b2abe18050f7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What harm could AI safety do?
(Note: I'm so far very in favor of work on AI safety. This question isn't intended to oppose work on AI safety, but to better understand it and its implications.)
(Edit: The point of this question is also to brainstorm some possible harms of AI safety and see if any of these can produce... |
a3b65126-5f23-47f7-b3d7-d8b117993063 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Toy model piece #4: partial preferences, re-re-visited
Two failed attempts
I initially defined partial preferences in terms of foreground variables Y and background variables Z.
Then a partial preference would be defined by y+ and y− in Y, such that, for any z∈Z, the world described by (y+,z) would be better than the... |
61d56b2e-1bdc-4642-8378-d5049d220db2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Mindcrime: Introduction
The more predictive accuracy we want from a model, the more detailed the model becomes. A very rough model of an airplane might only contain the approximate shape, the power of the engines, and the mass of the airplane. A model good enough for engineering needs to be detailed enough to simula... |
91446665-3088-47a9-bca6-2631b72ab84e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 7/16: Becoming the Mask
Previous week: Covid 7/9: Lies, Damn Lies and Death Rates
Two weeks ago I predicted a surge in Covid deaths starting on July 2 and picking up on July 7.
On July 6, the rolling 7-day average of Covid deaths reached a local low of 480.
Seven days later that average was 721, almost exactl... |
402199ed-b101-4261-92e1-e814eac36ca6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Transformative AI and Compute [Summary]
Cross-posted here on the EA Forum.
This is the summary of the series Transformative AI and Compute - A holistic approach. You can find the sequence here and the links to the posts below:
1. Compute [1/4]
2. Forecasting Compute [2/4]
3. Compute Governance and Conclusions [3/... |
cac2df09-7be3-4fae-9040-7a1714eff324 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Avoiding the emergency room
Diana Hsieh interviews Dr. Doug McGuff about avoidable injuries and deaths.
He's an emergency room physician in South Carolina, so he's pretty much just talking about what he's seen-- different regions have different characteristic injuries.
He says that you're safest in the largest car y... |
1461bda8-af29-4665-8408-4d13d7005d1c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Track records for those who have made lots of predictions
I love it when someone makes lots of predictions and then we can see their track record after the fact. Here's a collection of links to track records for anyone/anything interesting that has them tabulated, AFAIK.
The basic idea
--------------
The basic ide... |
e467199c-a86c-4b22-a34d-f80dca232b5c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Legal Assistance for Victims of AI
In the face of increasing competition, it seems unlikely that AI companies will ever take their foot off the gas. One avenue to slow AI development down is to make investment in AI less attractive. This could be done by increasing the legal risk associated with incorporating AI in pr... |
f0adac49-2097-4cca-b664-ae6392dfd196 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Keeping Choices Donation Neutral
Every dollar I spend on myself is a dollar that could go much farther if spent on other people. I can give someone else a year of healthy life for about $50 [1] and there's no way $50 can do anywhere near that much to help me. I could go through my life constantly weighing every purcha... |
be96c328-4169-44a8-92ed-d2a7ac8b32f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cognitive Dissonance is Mentally Taxing
Cognitive dissonance is the discomfort we feel when our beliefs don't line up with our actions. More generally, the two dissonant things don't need to be belief and action. It can be the discomfort we feel when different beliefs of ours are in contradiction. It can also arise wh... |
0650e093-7350-4d3f-9cba-3584fa29831f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow, Different Reports
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow, Different Reports
WHEN: 23 February 2014 04:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Russia, Moscow, ulitsa L'va Tolstogo 16
We will gather at the same second entrance, but we will go to a room inside the building at 16:00. So please do not be late. We wi... |
319e0649-6f55-4a9e-8239-c5a16a4a2953 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ToL: Foundations
(These are the touched up notes from a class I took with CMU's Kevin Kelly this past semester on the Topology of Learning. Only partially optimized for legibility)
Possible World Semantics
Let W be the set of all possible worlds. The nature of your inquiry is going to shape what sorts of worlds are ... |
75879f85-e5a5-46e6-a7f7-6a93496a528e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI Safety groups should imitate career development clubs
If you want to get people to do things (like learn about AI Safety) **you have to offer them something valuable.**
Here’s one of the posters we used when I was in charge of marketing for the Columbia EA group:
*.*
It’s a matter of history, I suppose.
We know that LLMs confabulate. They make stuff up. That’s what’s known as hallucination. Here’s the introductory... |
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