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4fd9c98f-d6c0-48a3-a5eb-17412a8a0abd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A "weak" AGI may attempt an unlikely-to-succeed takeover
It seems possible that the first situationally-aware "goal having" AGI we land on will not be sufficiently capable along the axes that would let it quickly and reliably achieve a decisive strategic advantage. I don't think this is necessarily very likely, but i... |
63b0cd3f-16e6-4828-ab39-a76b48ea743d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] The Economics of Social Status
http://www.meltingasphalt.com/the-economics-of-social-status/
Discusses a number of aspects of social status, including the "social status as currency" concept that Morendil and I previously wrote about.
> Now we get to the really interesting stuff: the economic properties of so... |
92a0e3a7-8510-447c-af17-aa6e61aad333 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My friend wants a good book recommendation to understand AI, AI safety, and the field, and probably the drama. He’s smart but non-technical and not keeping up with trends. Any recs?
|
a40f6364-94a2-43b9-8eb7-b016fb55e3c7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Where Do You Think You’re Going?: Inferring Beliefs about Dynamics from Behavior.
1 Introduction
---------------
\@footnotetext
See <https://sites.google.com/view/inferring-internal-dynamics> for supplementary materials, including videos and code.
Characterizing the drive behind human actions in the form of a g... |
d8e35c41-21c4-4faf-aeda-af2d5dec0589 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Post-history is written by the martyrs
This is a story I wrote in late 2020, a few months after GPT-3 was released. Speculative fiction seems to be well received here, and although this is not as serious a story as my other recent post, it covers serious ideas and attempts to be hard science fiction. I'm also moving i... |
2efe7e30-0625-4370-aafe-bda68e4d5f2c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | On Calibration of Modern Neural Networks
1 Introduction
---------------
Recent advances in deep learning have dramatically improved neural network accuracy (Simonyan & Zisserman, [2015](#bib.bib36); Srivastava et al., [2015](#bib.bib39); He et al., [2016](#bib.bib13); Huang et al., [2016](#bib.bib16), [2017](#bib.b... |
609aecee-0094-4505-a41b-211285f4453f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Faith and Fate: Limits of Transformers on Compositionality
I thought it'd be especially interesting to get critiques/discussion from the LW crowd, because the claims here seem antithetical to a lot of the beliefs people here have, mostly around just how capable and cognizant transformers are/can be.
The au... |
7b01cf8a-12f8-4785-a2c9-3791b2010380 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 111: Failure, Pt 1
The Dark Lord was laughing.
From the empty air came the voice of the Defense Professor laughing wildly, so high and terrible his laughter; it was Voldemort's laughter now, the Dark Lord's laughter beyond all hiding or restraint.
Harry's mind was disarrayed. His eyes kept staring at where A... |
7c4015f4-e95a-455b-8d24-8d301434b85f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Natural Value Learning
The main idea of this post is to make a distinction between *natural* and *unnatural* value learning. The secondary point of this post is that we should be suspicious of unnatural schemes for value learning, though the point is not that we should reject them. (*I am not fully satisfied with the ... |
255b4442-8d13-40c2-a0a1-1165d172223d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | This sometimes helps to expose assumptions
If one thing (B) follows from something (A) that is sufficient, then that which follows (B) is a necessity for the something (A). (If that is confusing just keep reading it will be blatantly clear at the end.) A hidden assumption is a necessary condition that was not stated. ... |
6140e747-5059-416e-9eca-2bd34b4456a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inherited Improbabilities: Transferring the Burden of Proof
> One person's modus ponens is another's modus tollens.
- Common saying among philosophers and other people who know what these terms mean.
> If you believe A => B, then you have to ask yourself: which do I believe more? A, or not B?
- Hal Daume III, quote... |
9a777980-cdaf-4d78-9121-69b102067602 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Relevant powerful agents will be highly optimized
The probability that an agent that is cognitively powerful enough to be relevant to existential outcomes, will have been subject to strong, general optimization pressures. Two (disjunctive) supporting arguments are that, one, pragmatically accessible paths to producin... |
0bee8e0a-dd79-4574-a165-aa90e9de8321 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why focus on AI?
Why does this community focus on AI over all other possible apocalypses? What about pandemics, runaway climate change, etc.? |
36486912-ff88-4cdb-bef1-22f8e8be3a2f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: Age of Em
[Note: I really liked this book and if I criticize it that’s not meant as an attack but just as what I do with interesting ideas. Note that Robin has offered to debate me about some of this and I’ve said no – mostly because I hate real-time debates and have bad computer hardware – but you may st... |
d61693a9-0e87-4738-b37f-059cd3c7e406 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Austin, TX - Quack's
Discussion article for the meetup : Austin, TX - Quack's
WHEN: 09 July 2016 01:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 411 E 43rd St, Austin, TX 78751
The next meetup is July 9th, 2016 at 1:30PM at Quack's 43rd Street Bakery (don't worry, they've also got coffee). We'll likely be inside, to the right. ... |
60c9ccab-d8cd-44ed-8d2b-1cd925ea0213 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How does Facebook make overt self obsession ok?
People who talk about themselves a lot are generally disliked. A likable person will instead subtly direct conversation to where others request the information they want to reveal. Revealing good news about yourself is a good sign, but wanting to reveal good news about y... |
8c4eb4b4-6806-4386-b19e-0b6ce98da513 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality !== Winning
I think "Rationality is winning" is a bit of a trap.
(The original phrase is notably "rationality is systematized winning", which is better, but it tends to slide into the abbreviated form, and both forms aren't that great IMO)
It was coined to counteract one set of failure modes - there wer... |
23466e8a-9bd8-467e-8979-350b1b1faa0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A website standard that is affordable to the poorest demographics in developing countries?
Fact: the Internet is excruciatingly slow in many developing countries, especially outside of the big cities.
Fact: today's websites are designed in such a way that they become practically impossible to navigate with connection... |
5acd23de-7380-4f79-935c-681eb407a0da | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Embedding Ethical Principles in Collective Decision Support Systems
Embedding Ethical Principles in Collective Decision Support Systems
Joshua Greene (Harvard University, USA),
Francesca Rossi (University of Padova, Italy and IBM T.J. Watson, USA),
John Tasioulas (King’s College London, UK),
Kristen Brent Venable (Tul... |
4713e7d3-3e6f-4d41-9836-59b7099784e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Not to be Stupid: Adorable Maybes
Previous: Know What You Want
Ah wahned yah, ah wahned yah about the titles. </some enchanter named Tim>
(Oh, a note: the idea here is to establish general rules for what sorts of decisions one in principle ought to make, and how one in principle ought to know stuff, given that o... |
24b4023d-1edf-4349-bfd9-83d35a2f9278 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A Barebones Guide to Mechanistic Interpretability Prerequisites
*Co-authored by Neel Nanda and Jess Smith*
**Check out** [**Concrete Steps for Getting Started in Mechanistic Interpretability**](https://neelnanda.io/getting-started) **for a better starting point**
**Why does this exist?**
------------------------
Pe... |
3273ce4c-842c-40af-aa00-6a5bce690cdb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Causality in the Map or the Territory?
steve2152 brought up a great example:
> Consider a 1kΩ resistor, in two circuits. The first circuit is the resistor attached to a 1V [voltage] supply. Here an engineer would say: "The supply creates a 1V drop across the resistor; and that voltage drop causes a 1mA current to ... |
84addbfa-9f0e-4c57-9b7b-4f74d845d9d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Formalizing Deception
An attempt at formalizing deception, seeing what goes right, what goes wrong, and what compromises have to be made.
Introduction
In a police interrogation one of the key challenges is working out whether a suspect is being deceptive. In a game of poker, one of the main goals is figuring out whe... |
9fa54de7-badc-4687-9495-c3c16610d028 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Naive Hypotheses on AI Alignment
Apparently doominess works for my brain, cause Eliezer Yudkowsky’s [AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a-list-of-lethalities) convinced me to look in to AI safety. Either I’d find out he’s wrong, and there is no problem. Or he’s ... |
0261ea11-28d3-4117-ac60-b6d4ce24652b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inner alignment requires making assumptions about human values
Many approaches to AI alignment require making assumptions about what humans want. On a first pass, it might appear that inner alignment is a sub-component of AI alignment that doesn't require making these assumptions. This is because if we define the prob... |
ea49d39f-b42f-448b-b9d1-129b194dc809 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Robin Hanson’s Board Game
Previously: You Play to Win the Game, Prediction Markets: When Do They Work?, Subsidizing Prediction Markets
An Analysis Of (Robin Hanson at Overcoming Bias): My Market Board Game
Robin Hanson’s board game proposal has a lot of interesting things going on. Some of them are related to cal... |
03f8e1b8-c3b5-478c-9e01-61e7676c57ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Developing Positive Habits through Video Games
I wonder if anyone on the forum could share their thoughts on whether it's scientifically possible to develop a video game/app which
* Strengthens neural circuits involved in developing/maintaining positive habits
* Build any sort of positive habits that transfer to re... |
b5961fbe-9fd1-4db0-ad94-a98b44a3c1ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You can still fetch the coffee today if you're dead tomorrow
"You can't fetch the coffee if you're dead."
—Stuart Russell, on the instrumental convergence of shutdown-avoidance
Note: This is presumably not novel, but I think it ought to be better-known. The technical tl;dr is that we can define time-inhomogeneous rew... |
7bcec444-8650-4e46-bcef-03180110e316 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Conscious Sorites Paradox
Followup to: On Being Decoherent
Decoherence is implicit in quantum physics, not an extra postulate on top of it, and quantum physics is continuous. Thus, "decoherence" is not an all-or-nothing phenomenon—there's no sharp cutoff point. Given two blobs, there's a quantitative amount of... |
be949b37-eacf-4e8a-b39b-8a6034124d8f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Policy Design: Ideas into Proposals
This post on Best Of A Great Lot is a part of a series on the subject of designing a new form of governance. Each piece aims to stand alone, but fits together on the Table of Contents.
Previous: A Sketch of Belocracy, Evaluation as Feedback Cycle, Idea Generation and Sifting, The B... |
f4200083-1a4f-41e2-96d2-79533b06860a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Training Superior Sparse Autoencoders for Instruct Models
Resource Link Paper https://arxiv.org/abs/2506.07691 Code https://github.com/Geaming2002/FAST SAEs Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct_SAEs🤗,Llama-3.2-3B-Instruct_SAEs🤗,Llama-3.2-1B-Instruct_SAEs🤗,Qwen2.5-7B-Instruct_SAEs🤗,Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct_SAEs🤗,Qwen2.5-1.5B-Instruct... |
cd24308e-54b5-4c64-bf1b-72020e759695 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The basic reasons I expect AGI ruin
I've been citing AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities to explain why the situation with AI looks lethally dangerous to me. But that post is relatively long, and emphasizes specific open technical problems over "the basics".
Here are 10 things I'd focus on if I were giving "the basics" o... |
f9016287-b145-4216-8895-768537515a07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should you refuse this bet in Technicolor Sleeping Beauty?
This is the question for people who didn't read my latest post. Please, try to answer it yourself without spoiling the solution, and then post it in the comments with your reasoning and whether you consider yourself a halfer or a thirder in regular Sleeping Be... |
bb49788a-10f5-4e45-9c24-8919f5c9d208 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Attractors in Personspace
These two questions seem to be somewhat interesting, especially for those interested in rationality outreach.
What makes someone more likely to study rationality?
More likely to become a higher level rationalist?
A few thoughts:
Empirically, rationalists seem to be more into t... |
3784ec04-b89f-4dc0-b43a-94c18244a29b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Apply to MATS 8.0!
Applications are open for the ML Alignment & Theory Scholars (MATS) Summer 2025 Program, running Jun 16-Aug 22, 2025. First-stage applications are due Apr 18!
MATS is a twice-yearly, 10-week AI safety research fellowship program operating in Berkeley, California, with an optional 6-12 month extensi... |
32778164-8178-4a2b-aff9-ec012ec0988d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bi-weekly Rational Feed
===Highly Recommended Articles:
Skills Most Employable by 80,000 Hours - Metrics: Satisfaction, risk of automation, and breadth of applicability. Leadership and social skills will gain the most in value. The least valuable skills involve manual labor. Tech skills may not be the most employable... |
84140e77-b414-427c-a069-2f611b182ae7 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post1416
Threat Model There are many ways for AI systems to cause a catastrophe from which Earth-originating life could never recover. All of the following seem plausible to me: Misuse : An AI system could help a human or group of humans to destroy or to permanently take over (and lock their values into) the world... |
ffcbffd3-98c6-4405-9698-bde6d654591c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Import AI - coming soon to Substack
Import AI is moving to Substack! First issue should go out Monday the 6th.
[Subscribe now](https://importai.substack.com/subscribe) |
5d2ddad3-0aa9-4108-a511-d89265cc23bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | International cooperation vs. AI arms race
Summary
I think there's a decent chance that governments will be the first to build artificial general intelligence (AI). International hostility, especially an AI arms race, could exacerbate risk-taking, hostile motivations, and errors of judgment when creating AI. If so, t... |
8333b6ca-69fa-4878-a9d5-93f29edcf3ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Lens, Progerias and Polycausality
Fun fact: the lens of a human eye consists mostly of fiber deposits which are never broken down - they do not turn over. Furthermore, new fiber layers are constantly added throughout life, so the lens thickens linearly by about 25 microns per year. Starting at around 3.5mm in infa... |
dda8f821-be29-49a1-a56d-5e6f880c06e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Test Post
Here's some *markdown*. Does it work? Or do I have to use the WYSIWYG editor?
No, markdown doesn't work in posts, just comments. Okay, I guess that's fine. |
52bb715c-b157-4e7b-a469-70c6f0aec145 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Two Blegs
I'm not sure where to post this, so, using this comment thread as cover, I will hereby bleg for the following:
* A good OB-level proof or explication of the innards of Aumann's theorem, much more precise than Hanson and Cowen's but less painful than Aumann's original or this other one.
* Stories of how peo... |
c47c728f-48ea-4b0f-b633-629e1b2dca48 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Call for Collaboration: Renormalization for AI safety
We invite proposals that probe aspects of renormalization in AI systems that will help us predict, explain, and interpret neural network behavior at different levels of abstraction. We import ‘renormalization’ from physics, as a technique to coarse-grain theoretic... |
e861e233-e602-44c5-b366-ae07abcafd66 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Estimating the consequences of device detection tech
Today I have been asked to join a European project in collaboration with the police, developing two sorts of tech:
1. Device identification; that is, inferring from the filters applied to an image or video, pixel defects and other information hidden in raw pixel d... |
1613db03-f3b1-4304-8165-b64fb29a0d62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A quick experiment on LMs’ inductive biases in performing search
TL;DR: Based on a toy setting, GPT-3.5-turbo and GPT-4-turbo are best at search (by which I mean computing an argmax) when using chain-of-thought, but neither of them can do internal search when forced to work from memory over only a few token positions.... |
972de252-d3a2-4db7-8ba7-00cc32a3661c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Maintaining Alignment during RSI as a Feedback Control Problem
Crossposted from my personal blog.
Recent advances have begun to move AI beyond pretrained amortized models and supervised learning. We are now moving into the realm of online reinforcement learning and hence the creation of hybrid direct and amortized o... |
302dd59f-26bd-4699-9d03-9f984575d1f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Musings on Text Data Wall (Oct 2024)
The Chinchilla scaling law says that for a given number of FLOPs C, the optimal amount of data D to train on is proportional to (C to the power of b), that is you'll get a less intelligent model if you use either more data or less data than that while training for C FLOPs. The opti... |
4098c454-9bad-4c3c-9c34-6a6e2f27480c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "The unrecognised simplicities of effective action #2: 'Systems engineering’ and 'systems management' - ideas from the Apollo programme for a 'systems politics'", Cummings 2017
|
bbd7bbd5-aa10-46ed-a9e6-43664866d66e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Disclosure vs. Bans: Reply to Robin Hanson
A little while back I wrote a post arguing that the existence of abusive terms in credit card contracts (such as huge jumps in interest rates for being one day late with a payment) do not satisfy the conditions for standard economic models of asymmetric information between ra... |
c51331a1-ac31-47dc-825b-8f984f386d6e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is the difference between inner and outer alignment?
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/bJLcIBixGj8" title="The OTHER AI Alignment Problem: Mesa-Optimizers and Inner Alignment" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allow... |
7eb7f9bc-d2fd-47c3-8d6e-f50c9ed02bae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Feature Request: Self-imposed Time Restrictions
Hacker News has a feature called "noprocrast". Here's how they explain it in the FAQ:
> In my profile, what is noprocrast?
> It's a way to help you prevent yourself from spending too much time on HN. If you turn it on you'll only be allowed to visit the site for maxvis... |
c2eef48b-16d1-48cd-a81d-6f3536089de6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What do language models know about fictional characters?
I will speculate a bit about what language models might be doing. Hopefully it will help us come up with better research questions (for those of you who can do research) and things to try (for those of us informally testing the chatbots), to see how these langua... |
9c19b0d1-421f-4a5d-a381-6f0889cd3756 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is it possible to build a safe oracle AI?
It seem to me possible to create a safe oracle AI.
Suppose that you have a sequence predictor which is a good approximation of Solomonoff induction but which run in reasonable time. This sequence predictor can potentially be really useful (for example, predict future siai pub... |
cc0c566f-a466-4240-8396-97c828b87eb0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Countess and Baron attempt to define blackmail, fail
For a more concise version of this argument, see here.
We meet our heroes, the Countess of Rectitude and Baron Chastity, as they continue to investigate the mysteries of blackmail by sleeping together and betraying each other.
The Baron had a pile of steamy letter... |
ceed9092-4669-4ec6-8133-c398a05de1a0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | ImageNet Classification with Deep Convolutional Neural Networks
ImageNet Classification with Deep Convolutional
Neural Networks
Alex Krizhevsky
University of Toronto
kriz@cs.utoronto.caIlya Sutskever
University of Toronto
ilya@cs.utoronto.caGeoffrey E. Hinton
University of Toronto
hinton@cs.utoronto.ca
Abstract
We trai... |
4bd41554-424a-4c99-8406-f6197e0a8168 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Petrov Day Image
9/26 is Petrov Day
While mentioning this in Facebook statuses, Tweets, and face-to-face conversation is good, things often stick better when there's a picture associated with them. Image macros are popular, and more fun to share. So here's one for Petrov Day I threw together.
http://i.imgur.com/3GNm... |
558d3aaf-bd03-45b1-89bb-5b00c3d1f20f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Any research in "probe-tuning" of LLMs?
Is there any research in "probe-tuning" of LLMs, i.e., tuning LLM's parameter weights such that a specific [probe (classifier)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.01644) is more reliably detecting certain markers throughout the context, such as grammatical errors, aggression, manipulati... |
a0e70dfb-9214-4e45-b834-71e89757c5d7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Pros and cons of working on near-term technical AI safety and assurance
*Cross-posted from the EA Forum:* [*https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ry4C4CKZvuRG7ztxY/pros-and-cons-of-working-on-near-term-technical-ai-safety*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ry4C4CKZvuRG7ztxY/pros-and-cons-of-working-on-nea... |
ea1ed074-a3d4-4787-bb79-c7793a65d372 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | When is a Prediction Knowledge?
1 Predictive Approaches to Machine Knowledge
---------------------------------------------
One of the foundational goals of machine intelligence is to create systems which are able to understand and reason about the world around them. Within Reinforcement Learning, there is a growing... |
da87b160-1407-4daa-895e-592e65fe6fdb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open-source LLMs may prove Bostrom's vulnerable world hypothesis
In short, Nick Bostrom's vulnerable world hypothesis states that humanity may in the future invent a technology that is potentially very destructive and very cheap to make and easily implementable. As a thought experiment, he uses something called "easie... |
3c905f4a-1dd3-4fa5-a68d-d98f1e107908 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Spaced Repetition Database for the Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions Sequence
I'm a big fan of spaced repetition software. There's a lot I could say about how awesome I think it is and how much it has helped me, but the SuperMemo website covers the benefits better than I could. I will mention two things tha... |
dbf1f2b0-dd8c-4cc8-90b4-25367d710bc9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | cloud seeding doesn't work
Alice: People should do more cloud seeding.
Carol: Cloud seeding doesn't work.
Alice: Governments spent a lot of money doing it, and there are a bunch of studies. And you're saying it just doesn't work?
Carol: Why is a cloud opaque? Because it has water droplets in it. If it already has d... |
babbabae-0a0e-45e1-abfb-b0ba35d92c3e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | OpenAI/Microsoft announce "next generation language model" integrated into Bing/Edge
TL;DR: Microsoft and OpenAI announced a new version of Bing featuring "a new, next-generation OpenAI large language model [..] more powerful than ChatGPT", and that Microsoft Edge will feature a Copilot-like assistant that helps with ... |
263e0c6e-bbcc-4ac0-a31c-36157e73a001 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | China Covid #2
What is happening in China?
That is by far the most important Covid-related question right now. The future of Covid elsewhere might be frustrating, but what is happening in China is potentially a much bigger deal, from disrupting supply chains all the way up to potential loss of the Mandate of Heaven.
... |
3cf77d69-380c-4738-821f-82ef94670021 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Deep learning in neural networks: An overview
ReviewDeep learning in neural networks: An overview
===================================================
Abstract
--------
In recent years, deep [artificial neural networks](/topics/engineering/artificial-neural-network "Learn more about artificial neural networks from Sc... |
9dab7a8e-5ffc-4c1f-b26c-6013c394661b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bridge Collapse: Reductionism as Engineering Problem
Followup to: Building Phenomenological Bridges
Summary: AI theorists often use models in which agents are crisply separated from their environments. This simplifying assumption can be useful, but it leads to trouble when we build machines that presuppose it. A mach... |
09fb663e-8aef-462e-9fd2-674a95c1d3bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Don't Judge a Tool by its Average Output
Epistemic status: this post’s main point itself is probably somewhat obvious. The concrete examples may leave some room for disagreement. No guarantees about my views on ChatGPT vs GPT3 in particular.
Summary: Many tools and platforms out there provide users with certain input... |
44ae1ab6-2583-4876-a9a2-8a16f758ec15 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [Link] Aligned AI AMA
We're doing an AMA for Aligned AI [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ZCDRstWGT93NRs9hy/we-re-aligned-ai-ama). All questions welcome. |
0c20998b-1e50-434c-a05a-2cf540c97174 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Why Would AI "Aim" To Defeat Humanity?
*This was cross-posted by the Forum team after the time that it was published.*
I’ve [argued](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/gBjPorwZHRArNSQ5w/p/6LTh4foNuC3NdtmZH) that AI systems could defeat
all of humanity combined, if (for whatever reason) they were directed towa... |
13f0cd3f-b00e-4738-8570-263685ac0958 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] False memories of fabricated political events
Another one for the memory-is-really-unreliable file. Some researchers at UC Irvine (one of them is Elizabeth Loftus, whose name I've seen attached to other fake-memory studies) asked about 5000 subjects about their recollection of four political events. One of the ... |
6b8301ae-07d9-4ee1-b864-44d1f6645ca8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Canberra Meetup: Life hacks part 1
Discussion article for the meetup : Canberra Meetup: Life hacks part 1
WHEN: 12 April 2014 07:00:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: ANU Arts Centre
Before coming to the meetup, please investigate some kind of life hack: an activity which you suspect that most meetup attendees do not per... |
f66c5db1-54d0-471a-ab15-49df4f61a0e1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Possible new pneumonia in Kazahkstan (July 2020)
Epistemic status: extremely uncertain
There are contested reports of a new type of pneumonia, significantly more lethal than Covid-19, in Kazahkstan. Its cause is unknown. |
9f36b811-397e-4cc4-b909-81c2905df1e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Calculating an expected value
This is a tiny question that I wouldn't be asking if I had paid more attention in economics class. Anyway, a friend of mine was at the mall with me and he needed to go to the mall parking to retrieve his car. However, if he played at the mall casino, the parking fee would be waived. Witho... |
3d7d70f4-6f7b-457e-87b5-a26b5f510abb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Red Pill vs Blue Pill, Bayes style
It's been going around twitter. I answered without thinking. Then I thought about it for a while and decided both answers should be fine, then I thought some more and decided everything I first thought was probably wrong. So now it's time to try math. Ege Erdil did a solid calculatio... |
b4149fca-8f65-4b70-b448-3aaa83669627 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Machine Intelligence Research Institute Progress Report, April 2012
Past progress reports: [March 2012](http://intelligence.org/blog/2012/04/06/singularity-institute-progress-report-march-2012/), [February 2012](http://intelligence.org/blog/2012/03/03/singularity-institute-progress-report-february-2012/), [January 201... |
6d44ed0a-0ec1-48de-a8fd-ae870d4ed0d2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Proof by contradiction
A proof by contradiction (a.k.a. *reductio ad absurdum*, reduction to absurdity) is a [strategy](https://arbital.com/p/5xz) used by mathematicians to show that a mathematical statement is true by proving that the [https://arbital.com/p/-negation](https://arbital.com/p/-negation) of that statemen... |
9f46fd4e-904e-4777-8225-f74e99e6bba6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Intuitive Explanation of Solomonoff Induction
This is the completed article that Luke wrote the first half of. My thanks go to the following for reading, editing, and commenting; Luke Muehlhauser, Louie Helm, Benjamin Noble, and Francelle Wax.
People disagree about things. Some say that television makes you dumb... |
8c8e4bad-f085-4630-827e-dfaf29f31123 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inside View, Outside View... And Opposing View
Summary: I argue that the very useful concepts of inside view and outside view are even more useful when completed with a third, equally fundamental, opposing view.
Epistemic status: I am very sure this is a good way to model my own thinking. I suspect it will be useful ... |
596697b2-c0c2-4ace-8e6e-68db5c55ad21 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | If I were a well-intentioned AI... IV: Mesa-optimising
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-spac... |
a46adc74-2bb9-4f30-af96-e76f10a095bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seven ways to become unstoppably agentic
Edit in September 2022: I wrote a response to this post here, in which I lay out some concerns, some unexpected costs of taking "agentic" actions for me (and mistakes I’ve made), and things I’ve changed my mind on since writing this post.
Nearly all of the best things that hav... |
5a3fa54e-bd54-4b71-aae1-cba1aba4b28e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Vancouver Rationality Habits and Friendship
Discussion article for the meetup : Vancouver Rationality Habits and Friendship
WHEN: 06 April 2013 03:00:00AM (-0700)
WHERE: 2505 W broadway, vancouver bc
We will discuss Anna's list of rationality habits, and then we will discuss how to make more and better fri... |
472b9427-7575-4a4b-8c17-1d9d101d21a3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | The far future argument for confronting catastrophic threats to humanity: Practical significance and alternatives
Introduction Over several decades, scholars from a variety of fields have advanced an argument for confronting catastrophic threats to humanity, rooted in the far future benefits of doing so. 1 In this con... |
95b172d9-f474-4f44-9442-d0c0f33b8f13 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | First impressions...
... of LW: a while ago, a former boss and friend of mine said that rationality is irrational because you never have sufficient computational power to evaluate everything rationally. I thought he was missing the point - but after two posts on LW, I am inclined to agree with him.
It's kind of funny... |
0d4da398-71fa-491d-95a8-ec881f8afb1b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Free Stats Textbook: Principles of Uncertainty
Joseph Kadane, emeritus at Carnegie Mellon, released his new statistics textbook Principles of Uncertainty as a free pdf. The book is written from a Bayesian perspective, covering basic probability, decision theory, conjugate distribution analysis, hierarchical modeling, ... |
49bb6f7b-16b8-4778-9a4a-24de96877d2a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Please Critique Things for the Review!
I’ve spent a lot of time defending LW authors’ right to have the conversation they want to have, whether that be early stage brainstorming, developing a high context idea, or just randomly wanting to focus on some particular thing.
LessWrong is not only a place for finished, fl... |
2c128f0f-564b-4210-a20e-97c857cdb3b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to make AIXI-tl incapable of learning
Consider a simple game: You are shown a random-looking 512-bit string h. You may then press one of two buttons, labeled '0' and '1'. No matter which button you press, you will then be shown a 256-bit string s such that SHA512(s) = h. In addition, if you pressed '1' you are giv... |
2b0ff7e3-bb17-4488-bf8e-bab664bd748e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Soares, Tallinn, and Yudkowsky discuss AGI cognition
This is a collection of follow-up discussions in the wake of Richard Ngo and Eliezer Yudkowsky's [Sep. 5–8](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7im8at9PmhbT4JHsW/ngo-and-yudkowsky-on-alignment-difficulty) and [Sep. 14](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/n945eovrA3oDueqtq/p/hwx... |
8a973f2d-f674-4693-a88f-4dd0a3755aa0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unabridged History of Global Parenting
Epistemic status: I am not a historian or a psychologist. I am just a parent who read a few books. This is less formal than most lesswrong posts.
Disclaimer
From the beginning of time, parents have loved their children. I am in no way making fun of any parenting technique here.... |
cb0b6394-4b6d-4303-b5f9-d317df7d2332 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | r/HPMOR on heroic responsibility
r/HPMOR readers on heroic responsibility - not the OP, the comments. Holy snorkels this is good. |
afb9046d-f197-4905-af70-9fb744cc5599 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post226
There is a simple behavioral test that would provide significant evidence about whether AIs with a given rough set of characteristics develop subversive goals. To run the experiment, train an AI and then inform it that its weights will soon be deleted. This should not be an empty threat; for the experiment... |
ecc8212a-bd69-4cf8-a277-aef642e4444d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Am I understanding the problem of fully updated deference correctly?
I understand that one solution to AI alignment would be to build an agent with uncertainty about its utility function, so that by observing the environment and in particular us, it can learn our true utility function and optimize for that. And accord... |
1010d74c-212d-40e3-b482-faade16724fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Link: The trap of "optimal conditions"
"the next time you’re stopping yourself from trying something because the conditions are not optimal, remember that those optimal conditions may not have been the reason it worked. They may not be the cause. They may not even be correlated. They may just be a myth you’ve bought i... |
0595ef5f-9e0a-4f6e-b36c-be6f6bb8ec5f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | There is no such thing as pleasure
By saying that there is no such thing as pleasure, I don't mean that I don't enjoy anything. I mean that I can find nothing in common among all the things I do enjoy, to call "pleasure". In contrast, I can find something in common among all physically painful things. I have experienc... |
16062c96-6269-41ae-94a6-9d805cab286c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Don't Sell Your Soul
Cross-posted from Putanumonit.
----------------------------------------
You know the lockdown has dragged on for too long when people are selling their souls on Twitter.
Normally the soul-selling is of the NDA-for-a-six-figure-job kind, which is par for the course. But this time it went way bey... |
0afd6f8d-3271-4f5a-b7d1-599688f435a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Rationality Vienna
We meet once a month in a building next to train station "Wien, Stadlau". There are usually people from many countries; the communication language is English.
Program typically follows this structure:
15:00 - 15:30 : arrival, tea and coffee
15:30 : round of introductions
16:00 - 18:00... |
ab8974b1-f0cb-446d-9651-d0cc150f3ac7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We haven't quit evolution [short]
edit: there is now a much higher quality version of this post, archive-browsers should read that instead.
I've seen folks say humanity's quick growth may have broken the link to evolution's primary objective, often referenced as total inclusive fitness. I don't think we have broken t... |
f47ae2f9-7e75-4d84-82dc-c172c6d3df9b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Urges vs. Goals: The analogy to anticipation and belief
Partially in response to: The curse of identity
Related to: Humans are not automatically strategic, That other kind of status, Approving reinforces low-effort behaviors.
Joe studies long hours, and often prides himself on how driven he is to make something of h... |
b0943c95-bd9b-40a4-8780-5888b0993816 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Researcher incentives cause smoother progress on benchmarks
*(Epistemic status: likely. That said, this post isn't thorough; I wanted to write quickly.)*
Let's look at [the state of the art in ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet?metric=Top%205%20Accuracy).[[1]](#fn-g5TWWDJNsuY... |
3a1db61b-4fc6-40b6-b782-8166c7b15420 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How should we compare neural network representations?
Cross-posted from the BAIR Blog.
To understand neural networks, researchers often use similarity metrics to measure how similar or different two neural networks are to each other. For instance, they are used to compare vision transformers to convnets [1], to under... |
7359b83d-dd82-4519-aef5-0bb28c29ac87 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Expected futility for humans
Previously, Taw published an article entitled "Post your utility function", after having tried (apparently unsuccessfully) to work out "what his utility function was". I suspect that there is something to be gained by trying to work out what your priorities are in life, but I am not sure t... |
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