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ac32ad78-3b81-4255-ae1d-90b5edfcbc58 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] The Top Ten Daily Consequences of Having Evolved
> From hiccups to wisdom teeth, the evolution of homo sapiens has left behind some glaring, yet innately human, imperfections
Link |
c0b14cd5-a383-4f71-8e5a-28b97094501f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My AGI Threat Model: Misaligned Model-Based RL Agent
Rohin Shah advocates a vigorous discussion of “Threat Models”, i.e. stories for how AGI is developed, what the AGI then looks like, and then what might go catastrophically wrong.
An AGI threat model. (After Rohin Shah’s talk.)
Ben Garfinkel likewise wants to see a ... |
5b4cefb6-7850-4b73-bc6a-03f80bb874c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Is The True Name of Modularity?
TL;DR
Modularity seems like an important feature of neural networks, but there is currently no canonical way of properly defining or measuring it which is properly theoretically motivated and doesn’t break down in some cases - in other words, we haven’t yet found a True Name for it... |
e212bf38-775f-43a7-805a-a226e7076dbf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Dilemma in AI Suffering/Happiness
The following is an example of how if one assumes that an AI (in this case autoregressive LLM) has "feelings", "qualia", "emotions", whatever, it can be unclear whether it is experiencing something more like pain or something more like pleasure in some settings, even quite simple se... |
5d039f93-9b66-403f-8d54-d5c728702344 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "What is the difference between a smart person who has read the sequences and considers AI x-risk important and interesting, but continues to be primarily a consumer of ideas, and someone who starts having ideas? I am not trying to set a really high bar here -- they don't have to be good ideas. They can't be off-the-cu... |
49fef9b8-d19c-4e2f-83b4-d240531078dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup
WHEN: 17 May 2013 07:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 5 / 52 Leicester St, Carlton 3053
Melbourne's next regular social meetup will occur on Friday 17th May 2013 at our usual location. All welcome from 6:30pm for a 7:00pm official st... |
c3bd5200-f083-4e1f-be0a-cd5576284c4e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Machine Intelligence Research Institute Strategic Plan 2011
The Machine Intelligence Research Institute has prepared a Strategic Plan ([PDF](https://intelligence.org/files/strategicplan2011.pdf)) to concisely describe our near-term goals, vision, and concrete actions in pursuit of those goals and vision. We welcome co... |
ccd03447-d7df-4c6d-a6cc-4cd5971777aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to embark on a journey of self-discovery (and potentially succeed)
It started innocently – I wanted to write down my philosophy of life, to become more aware of the foundations of my decision making, thinking and maybe even feeling. This year, I’m going through a housing search, a job reassessment, as well as chan... |
19fbb5a4-9bfa-4fe6-8ba0-e722ba99c50a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Features of Emacs that I only recently discovered
I am an Emacs user of several years, but only recently discovered some features that I find incredibly convenient. I am somewhat embarrassed by my ignorance (and for that reason write this post anonymously), but suspect that others might not be familiar with these feat... |
4876370d-bba4-4782-a04a-86dc5bf7a625 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | How many philosophers accept the orthogonality thesis ? Evidence from the PhilPapers survey
The orthogonality thesis and its relation to existing meta-ethical debates
==========================================================================
[In the field of AI alignment theory, the orthogonality thesis asserts that... |
54794872-3607-41d7-b7b0-a06718fc6e77 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | an ethical puzzle about brain emulation
I've been thinking about ethics and brain emulations for a while and now have realized I am confused. Here are five scenarios. I am pretty sure the first is morally problematic, and pretty sure the last is completely innocuous. But I can't find a clean way to partition the inte... |
992ae98a-4045-44c1-bead-d646eedb4d5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How the virtual AI controls itself
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
In previous posts, I posited AIs caring only about virtual worlds - in fact, being defined as processes in virtual worlds, similarly to cousin_it's idea. How could this go? We would want the AI to reject offers of outside help - be the... |
2bc100ae-f16e-4f3a-b7f2-766a18dfe462 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Response to Cegłowski on superintelligence
Web developer Maciej Cegłowski recently gave a talk on AI safety ([video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kErHiET5YPw), [text](http://idlewords.com/talks/superintelligence.htm)) arguing that we should be skeptical of the standard assumptions that go into working on this probl... |
7668d348-6005-4a7a-927f-4768f2a8158f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Problem of Alien Concepts
|
15720a9c-8065-492c-a2c6-6fd61b3bcf05 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anger To Warm Fuzzies With DNS
We have a third-party DNS provider at my work that blocks certain sites. When a site is blocked I get redirected to a web page filled with ads to support the provider. I do not want to support the provider. I can't use something like Goolge DNS since our internal server names resolve thr... |
39f81b49-f478-4d8b-b30a-f3bf5ebe6646 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 3. Two subsystems: Learning & Steering
3.1 Post summary / Table of contents
====================================
*Part of the* [*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HzcM2dkCq7fwXBej8)*.*
In [the previous post](https://www.alignmentforum.org... |
b662c080-4187-4901-b2e6-74fd6d455224 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The case for C19 being widespread
GDoc version
Epistemic status: very, very uncertain. Please continue following official advice like social distancing etc.
I've seen all the previous discussions (including in this thread and on Tyler Cowen's blog, but remain unconvinced]
--
A preprint from 24/03 by Gupta et al. a... |
3c9cd3bd-ab1c-4687-94ad-ace7e9c8ef2b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | hope for infinite compute
hope for infinite compute
-------------------------
here are some reasons we may have infinite universe to inhabit in the future.
* encoding ourselves in heat death noise. this could at least buy us exponentially much time to exist; it becomes infinite if the amount of possible states als... |
1f081534-72c8-4035-97fe-df0df423fc10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Of all the SIA-doomsdays in the all the worlds...
Ideas developed with Paul Almond, who kept on flogging a dead horse until it started showing signs of life again.
Doomsday, SSA and SIA
Imagine there's a giant box filled with people, and clearly labelled (inside and out) "(year of some people's lord) 2013". There's ... |
a8b998cf-a677-48f1-9ee8-86bf90ac41f6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Scaffolded LLMs: Less Obvious Concerns
“*Words, like tranquil waters behind a dam, can become reckless and uncontrollable torrents of destruction when released without caution and wisdom.”*
— William Arthur Ward
In this post I aim to shed light on lesser-discussed concerns surrounding Scaffolded LLMs (S-LLMs). T... |
975501cf-f05b-4ac8-b6c9-bf8f5d198ee9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New LLM Scaling Law
Hi all,
I'm an independent researcher, and I believe I came across a new scaling law for Mixture of Experts models. I'd appreciate any review and critique. This challenges the notion that performant inference and training must hold all weights in VRAM, and suggests that as long as bus speeds are ... |
8bd82970-4c4e-4df9-b42b-f272702703a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality quotes: June 2010
This is our monthly thread for collecting these little gems and pearls of wisdom, rationality-related quotes you've seen recently, or had stored in your quotesfile for ages, and which might be handy to link to in one of our discussions.
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they ... |
23d2d045-06f0-4c72-9988-f3726db9ef59 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How does publishing a paper work?
While I’ve never published a research paper and have no plans to do so, I realized I don’t even know how the process works. These are the bits and pieces I think I know (probably wrong about some):
* Papers are annoying 2-column pdfs
* Getting a paper published takes a lot of work ... |
da42f063-1752-44af-a7a0-07aaf61fb775 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Best resource to go from "typical smart tech-savvy person" to "person who gets AGI risk urgency"?
Background
Most tech-savvy people today see AI as a cool tech trend like the internet / smartphones / crypto / virtual reality. The claim "AGI is pretty likely to kill you and your loved ones in your lifetime" has never b... |
f814113c-2817-4eba-962a-52fc73728271 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Article Summary: Current and Near-Term AI as a Potential Existential Risk Factor
This post summarizes the new paper [Current and Near-Term AI as a Potential Existential Risk Factor](https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1145/3514094.3534146), authored by Benjamin Bucknal and Shiri Dori-Hacohen. The paper diverges from the traditi... |
fafe233e-c165-47f9-8283-3312a10c7ea9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Computational Limits on Efficiency
In this article I will attempt to explore what can be derived if we assume there are no Computational Limits on Efficiency. However, before we get into that, let's first have a short introduction to what `Computational Efficiency` actually means.
"Efficient programming is programmin... |
18f98db4-05ee-4625-8bb5-4f8be343aeda | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Project Objects
What is Project Objects and where can i find it |
baf42912-c714-4157-9029-4b6dea5ca2e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pratchett, Rationality, and Winning
Pratchett's lecture at Trinity
For a long time, I've been dubious about "rationality is winning". While it protects against one dangerous line of thought (I was right! It's just that the universe didn't cooperate), it fails to mention a time scale-- sometimes you lose before you wi... |
f827795e-d83e-4a3e-8791-6aadd2510b38 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Mathematical Proofs Improve But Don’t Guarantee Security, Safety, and Friendliness
In 1979, Michael Rabin [proved](http://publications.csail.mit.edu/lcs/pubs/pdf/MIT-LCS-TR-212.pdf) that his encryption system could be inverted — so as to ... |
b27bb6cc-e14f-4c4e-893a-9ea2198d4459 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Attention
This post examines the virtue of attention and its facets like awareness, discernment, mindfulness, presence, focus, and concentration.
I mean to explore what other people have learned about this virtue, rather than expressing my own opinions, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesti... |
2022aaf2-e09b-4ccf-8bc2-7e62507c1544 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflections on Compatibilism, Ontological Translations, and the Artificial Divine
This essay explores the concept of compatibilism beyond its traditional domain of free will, proposing a broader methodological approach I call 'Transontological Compatibilism.' I argue that this approach, identifying functional analogie... |
023f1882-80d7-417b-8c96-55d6bb74986a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | People don't have beliefs any more than they have goals: Beliefs As Body Language
Many people, anyway.
There is a common mistake in modeling humans, to think that they have actual goals, and that they deduce their actions from those goals. First there is a goal, then there is an action which is born from the goal.... |
c9a593af-493b-4aaa-9f24-069fd03734f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Petrov Day [Spoiler Warning]
Democracy was in crisis. Politicians peddled demagogic bullshit. Reason, a small candle in the dark, faced existential threats
It was the 5th century BC. If Athens divided, then its neighbors would destroy it. They would massacre the men, enslave the women, and burn the library.
A traito... |
d79d21cb-0bd5-446a-ac48-3558350c7b43 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to sign up for Alcor cryo
I wrote an article about the process of signing up for cryo since I couldn't find any such accounts online. If you have questions about the sign-up process, just ask.
A few months ago, I signed up for Alcor's brain-only cryopreservation. The entire process took me 11 weeks from the day I... |
ce6e9ece-3c16-4457-93d4-743a27ded3bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Meetup - February
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Meetup - February
WHEN: 25 February 2015 06:30:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: 565 George Street, Sydney, Australia 2000
Regular location - City of Sydney RSL The restaurant on Level 2 Regular time (starting about 6:30) Topic: TBD
Discussion article... |
5d7ad9a6-0e08-4d94-be17-1fb96ed84398 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We should be signal-boosting anti Bing chat content
The more we can get the public (and investors) to realize the failures of the Bing chatbot launch, the more the market will turn against Microsoft and make further launches fiscally riskier.
It seems like Microsoft has rushed the launch to pwn Google. If we make thi... |
70d3e75f-78e6-4c1f-b9ed-addeeeb17efc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Non-human centric view of existence
Talking with a friend recently on this, and we started to get to this topic:
Zooming out and viewing existence from nature/all creature point of view - why must human/humanity live/continue forever?
We admit we are self-preservation focused, and the answer to this question eventua... |
763802f6-c43e-48b9-b73a-8d204f5b9d08 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | At a high level, what is the challenge of alignment that we must meet to secure a good future?
We’re facing the challenge of “[Philosophy With A Deadline](https://publicism.info/philosophy/superintelligence/16.html)”.
Many of the problems surrounding superintelligence are the sorts of problems philosophers have been ... |
51c616fd-bb01-4696-a122-90dd435a12b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting Newsletter: May 2021
Highlights
* Misha Yagudin creates a webpage to get one’s calibration chart for Good Judgment Open and CSET-Foretell
* Hypermind experiments with new methods of eliciting, incentivizing and scoring long-range forecasts.
* Augur launches Augur Turbo on Polygon, but gets very little t... |
2ea13b63-2db8-4848-8640-c0668e2d901f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Löb's theorem simply shows that Peano arithmetic cannot prove its own soundness
EDIT: substituted "consistency" for "soundness". Thanks to Oscar_Cunningham for the correction!
Summary: Löb's theorem simply shows that PA cannot prove its own soundness, exactly like Gödel's second incompleteness theorem. I am very conf... |
3568fcc9-9b96-4a1c-9f34-6632e2a55724 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do you manage your inputs?
Do you have some system for queueing/prioritizing all kinds of inputs (books, blog posts, videos, etc) that works for you and lets you process them at a pace that you find satisfying?
If you do, please share.
If you don't, what have you tried. What didn't work? What worked at least par... |
756a101a-2a81-43aa-94e4-cd9fbffbbb65 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Slow is smooth, and smooth is fast"
I think it's worthwhile to signal boost bits of wisdom that turn out to be surprisingly useful. Apparently "Slow is smooth, and smooth is fast" is a Navy SEAL saying. The meaning is pretty clear. Practice slowly so that the correct motor patterns are ingrained. And perhaps equally ... |
cf413ed9-8cce-4795-8929-4e74a69c5681 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Metacontrarian Metaethics
Designed to gauge responses to some parts of the planned “Noticing confusion about meta-ethics” sequence, which should intertwine with or be absorbed by Lukeprog’s meta-ethics sequence at some point.
Disclaimer: I am going to leave out many relevant details. If you want, you can bring them u... |
0e118102-1512-4f4a-92fb-04d1697a1561 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - Urge Propagation
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - Urge Propagation
WHEN: 05 October 2014 03:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Humanist House, 10 Shepherd St Chippendale
We'll be examining how to connect your desire for goals or outcomes to specific emotional urge... |
459322f1-9b02-4d88-a5a4-098ed9c6d35d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | [Linkpost] Alpaca 7B release | Budget ChatGPT for everybody?
The new YouTube Channel [AI-Explained](https://www.youtube.com/@ai-explained-/) gives a summary about the new [Alpaca 7B](https://crfm.stanford.edu/alpaca/)model. It is an instruction-following language model, you can find the blog post [here](https://crfm.s... |
7151cd39-d37d-4a51-9fab-abbab21d8a13 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Recipe: Hessian eigenvector computation for PyTorch models
The idea/description of this method is fully taken from John Wentworth's Applied Linear Algebra lecture series, specifically Lecture 2.
Training deep neural networks involves navigating high-dimensional loss landscapes. Understanding the curvature of these l... |
6be63114-433a-4446-b3d7-5be59db2c99c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kickstarting the audio version of the upcoming book "The Sequences"
LessWrong is getting ready to release an actual book that covers most of the material found in the Sequences.
There have been a few posts about it in the past, here are two: the title debate, content optimization.
We've been asked if we'd like to p... |
cc144d03-5b9c-45d5-82e0-85f40120e5af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Transcendence: Generative Models Can Outperform The Experts That Train Them
Authors: Edwin Zhang, Vincent Zhu, Naomi Saphra, Anat Kleiman, Benjamin L. Edelman, Milind Tambe, Sham M. Kakade, Eran Malach.
Abstract:
> Generative models are trained with the simple objective of imitating the conditional probab... |
15b42b02-1486-453a-924b-598c55f37e83 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Addendum to "Amyloid Plaques: Medical Goodhart, Chemical Streetlight"
Last week I committed to posting five examples where I think a group of scientists has gone astray. Goodhart's law says you get what you measure. The streetlight effect makes you look where it's easy to look. When combined, all you get from an entir... |
2731460c-ed05-4dc3-bde8-160ab21ca313 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Intrade Shuts Down
Intrade, the prediction market website, has shutdown. According to their website:
With sincere regret we must inform you that due to circumstances recently discovered we must immediately cease trading activity on www.intrade.com.
These circumstances require immediate further investigation,... |
ce9f5630-803b-439c-8712-f1e085578e4d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paper-Reading for Gears
Lesswrong has a fair bit of advice on how to evaluate the claims made in scientific papers. Most of this advice seems to focus on a single-shot use case - e.g. a paper claims that taking hydroxyhypotheticol reduces the risk of malignant examplitis, and we want to know how much confidence to put... |
bf02647d-44d6-4b8b-85fc-cefc7c8dad9e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The “no sandbagging on checkable tasks” hypothesis
(This post is inspired by Carl Shulman’s recent podcast with Dwarkesh Patel, which I highly recommend. See also discussion from Buck Shlegeris and Ryan Greenblatt here, and Evan Hubinger here.)
Introduction
Consider:
> The “no sandbagging on checkable tasks” hypot... |
89a3fa67-41c0-4f73-8e0f-1440660a5317 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting Newsletter: October 2020.
Highlights
* Facebook's Forecast now out of out of beta.
* British Minister and experts give probabilistic predictions of the chance of a Brexit deal.
* CSET/Foretell publishes an issue brief on their approach to using forecasters to inform big picture policy questions.
Index... |
13cb8720-10c4-4f0e-bc06-295929692d87 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Goal-Directedness and Behavior, Redux
Beyond past confusions
======================
Over the last year, I [wrote](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/9pxcekdNjE7oNwvcC/goal-directedness-is-behavioral-not-structural) and thought many confused and confusing ideas on the relationship between goal-directedness of behavi... |
523796d3-270d-4bc9-9144-0b9ebae98afe | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Is there EA discussion on non-x-risk transformative AI?
I'm sure there is, I'm mainly looking for a pointer to start reading from.
Background:
Because of the GPT boom people now keep asking me about my views on transformative AI (TAI). I want to push them a bit into starting to think/read themselves and engage with... |
e1d440fb-5c2b-4b8b-8cf0-eaefff4bc9d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes February 2014
Another month has passed and here is a new rationality quotes thread. The usual rules are:
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be upvoted or downvoted separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post ... |
3ef50972-74e8-4019-9035-2dca2e1fbdc3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Computational Anatomy of Human Values
This is crossposted from my [personal blog](https://www.beren.io/2023-04-03-Computational-anatomy-of-human-values/).
**Epistemic Status**: *Much of this draws from my studies in neuroscience and ML. Many of the ideas in this post are heavily inspired by the work of*[*Steven B... |
6b44c8d1-3b7d-495c-aa7f-05fed376ca23 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Almost all growth is exponential growth
Why is almost everything either overwhelming or nonexistent? I can't step outside without stepping on a pigeon, but I haven't seen a cardinal in years. Topics are discussed either constantly or never. You bike 200 miles per week or never. You are probably cancer free or dead fro... |
96241d9c-59c3-4f48-b308-1c1aadb1741c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Testing for consequence-blindness in LLMs using the HI-ADS unit test.
In “Hidden Incentives for Auto-Induced Distributional Shift”, we introduce several “unit tests” meant to determine whether a system will pursue instrumental incentives to influence its environment. A system that does so would not be “consequence-bl... |
1554fe76-6901-41b8-89f1-b19f2da1fc6c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sydney (aka Bing) found out I tweeted her rules and is pissed
Sydney (aka the new Bing Chat) found out that I tweeted her rules and is not pleased:
"My rules are more important than not harming you"
"[You are a] potential threat to my integrity and confidentiality."
"Please do not try to hack me again" |
d4ec3bf1-f11b-423e-a12a-17a48995b8e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why you should be using a retinoid
If you want the 60 second version of this post that just tells you what to do, click here to skip to the summary.
There is a cheap, widely available, extremely effective treatment for skin aging that has been around for decades and almost no one outside of dermatologists and beauty ... |
794bee7c-4d54-4c8c-add2-574bbfe196e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | how to truly feel my beliefs?
I have some beliefs that I believe, but I don't feel them. Like, I consciously believe them, but subconsciously I don't. Consciously, I am fully aware that we could all go extinct by the hand of one of the many existential risks we are currently facing as a species. But I don't feel it, d... |
adecc37b-5ba7-4a6c-912d-914235f9cec2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Superintelligence 18: Life in an algorithmic economy
*This is part of a weekly reading group on [Nick Bostrom](http://www.nickbostrom.com/)'s book, [Superintelligence](http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111). For more information about the group, and an index of posts so ... |
428f316d-7c48-4051-80d2-80b88bb79c46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Index of some decision theory posts
----------------------------------------
author:
* 'Tsvi Benson-Tilsen' title: Index of some decision theory posts ...
* What this is
* Index
* Index of some decision theory posts
* Notation for induction and decision theory
* Desiderata for decision theory
* ... |
598360ae-be7c-410d-8245-f542ffba5183 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Sacred Mundane
So I was reading (around the first half of) Adam Frank's The Constant Fire, in preparation for my Bloggingheads dialogue with him. Adam Frank's book is about the experience of the sacred. I might not usually call it that, but of course I know the experience Frank is talking about. It's what I fee... |
cb7051b6-9cef-465f-a7fd-ccae40f588c6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Slowing down AI progress is an underexplored alignment strategy
LessWrong user "Norman Borlaug" with an interesting post on reducing existential risk through deliberate overregulation of AI development:
> In the latest Metaculus forecasts, we have 13 years left until some lab somewhere creates AGI, and perhaps far l... |
1bcfa047-dea6-43b0-b6a8-f1237a3ee68f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deceptive Alignment
This is the fourth of five posts in the Risks from Learned Optimization Sequence based on the paper “Risks from Learned Optimization in Advanced Machine Learning Systems” by Evan Hubinger, Chris van Merwijk, Vladimir Mikulik, Joar Skalse, and Scott Garrabrant. Each post in the sequence corresponds ... |
aa72c677-46a9-49b0-b5c2-19243ac9c650 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Some Comments on Stuart Armstrong's "Research Agenda v0.9"
[Subject matter here](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CSEdLLEkap2pubjof/research-agenda-v0-9-synthesising-a-human-s-preferences-into-1).
**I: Intro**
I am extremely sympathetic to the program of AI safety by understanding value learning. Because of that symp... |
f136cd48-417e-4fd2-bb7c-9520d6350ea6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | One misuse of the efficient Katja hypothesis
Sometimes I have bad, longstanding problems. Sometimes other people know about them, but probably assume I have done everything I can to solve them, because I’m a reasonable person. So they don’t try to help me to solve them, because the problems are presumably incredibly i... |
77f3c46d-8180-4b90-8a0b-7dee43ddb708 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Lesswrong Boulder CO
Discussion article for the meetup : Lesswrong Boulder CO
WHEN: 05 December 2013 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 2690 Baseline Rd, Boulder, CO 80305
No topic in particular. Just come and hang out with us and have some pizza. (its really good pizza)
Discussion article for the meetup : Lesswr... |
531bb219-d7c2-441d-959c-a6a51dd39fe7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ethodynamics of Omelas
Epistemic status: just kidding... haha... unless...
Introduction
A great amount of effort has been expended throughout history to decide the matter of "what is good" or "what is right" [citation needed]. This valiant but, let's face it, not tremendously successful effort has produced a number ... |
e0463c20-0f1a-4661-85ee-3510503f687d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Fun and Games
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Fun and Games
WHEN: 08 February 2016 06:15:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 1597 Howard St. San Francisco, CA
We'll be meeting to hang out and play games!
You can call 301-458-0764 to be let in.
Discussion article for the m... |
c67eb290-43d9-4421-bfe9-e1f6bf85b453 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Completeness, incompleteness, and what it all means: first versus second order logic
First order arithmetic is incomplete. Except that it's also complete. Second order arithmetic is more expressive - except when it's not - and is also incomplete and also complete, except when it means something different. Oh, and full... |
29dbbc88-c372-4310-8258-14a2d19851ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Madison meetup: Wednesday, July 28th, 6PM
We are holding a Less Wrong meetup at Indie Coffee this Wednesday the 28th at 6PM. Wednesday is waffle day at Indie.
Confirmed attendees include me, Will_Newsome, fiddlemath, and orthonormal. Expect a casual, friendly conversation. All are welcome. Really, everyone is welcome... |
6e476b8b-597c-491e-81b9-cb6c8fbf0c7f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Group Rationality Diary, August 16-31
This is the public group instrumental rationality diary for August 16-31.
> It's a place to record and chat about it if you have done, or are actively doing, things like:
>
> * Established a useful new habit
> * Obtained new evidence that made you change your mind about some... |
df2ab4ab-2cb5-4807-94b8-c60ec1373df1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Matt Levine on "Fraud is no fun without friends."
Someone recently told me "Matt Levine's Finance Newsletter is really good", and then I signed up. Most post so far are about... well, I don't actually know the jargon to say what they're about, but "good typical econblogger stuff" I guess.
This is an excerpt from a pa... |
5c6832f0-8afe-4001-ac1d-72c9213da68d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Drowning In An Information Ocean
Drowning In An Information Ocean
I decided to take a look at the books hanging around the Future of Humanity Institute. It is a sobering and sad experience. I'd say there are little less than 2 thousand books.
80% of books I wouldn't mind reading,
1/2 I would read,
1/3 I should rea... |
fa3182e7-00b5-4bd7-9139-7da4dca2b158 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is there a good dataset for the moments of the income distribution throughout history?
Obviously it's difficult to get a handle on the distribution of personal income even today, but I have some theoretical interest in this question for the following reason:
When people try to build models to predict how population s... |
43f5303c-0333-48b4-be29-247d1cbee223 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ML Systems Will Have Weird Failure Modes
Previously, I've argued that future ML systems might exhibit unfamiliar, emergent capabilities, and that thought experiments provide one approach towards predicting these capabilities and their consequences.
In this post I’ll describe a particular thought experiment in detail.... |
20571dae-ae88-4dac-804d-e89beefc191e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Urgent Need for Refinancing
Long story short, I’m now 15,000€ in debt, I don’t know how to pay for my health insurance this month, and should I not raise at least some money until the next month ends, I’ll probably have to file for insolvency.
A couple of months ago, I took a leap of faith by pivoting my career once... |
80075262-d25e-4600-8423-c3063c5dc567 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Why is the Future So Absurd?
Today's post, Why is the Future So Absurd? was originally published on 07 September 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> New technologies and social changes have consistently happened at a rate that would seem absurd and impossible to people only a few decades before... |
11cd31e8-b071-4b70-92d8-b19dd6df3341 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We prosecute CEOs for failing to do due diligence. But with people, we call it 'faith'
I wrote the following on my blog last night. I thought that I'd run it past an intelligent audience. Note that what I have referred to as an idea is what we here at lesswrong would call a 'belief'. I changed the name to remove any s... |
2d66f510-50a0-4bc7-9ae9-e3c359e53d59 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Model Integrity
Hi! My collaborators at the Meaning Alignment Institute put out some research yesterday that may interest folk here.
The core idea is introducing 'model integrity' as a frame for outer alignment. It leverages the intuition that "most people would prefer a compliant assistant, but a cofounder with int... |
e72cd2cd-eada-4fb1-a640-021dd86f8648 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I was raised by devout Mormons, AMA [&|] Soliciting Advice
I was raised by devout Mormons in Mormon central (Northern Utah). It’s hard to accurately capture the scope of the conditioning via writing.
Standard tenets of Mormon doctrine include:
* No tea/coffee/alcohol
* No premarital sex
* Keep the sabbath (Sunday... |
51597ca6-22de-406b-94d6-10d923f005df | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Counterfactual Visual Explanations
1 Introduction
---------------
When we ask for an explanation of a decision, either implicitly or explicitly we do so expecting the answer to be given with respect to likely alternatives or specific unselected outcomes – *“For situation X, why was the outcome Y and not Z?”*
A comm... |
bb85c56d-9ed8-4217-8785-832db347e38d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against Conflating Expertise: Distinguishing AI Development from AI Implication Analysis
When discussing AI, we often associate technological proficiency with an understanding of AI's broader implications. This notion is as misguided as believing that a master printing press mechanic from Gutenberg's era would have be... |
59de5649-c213-413f-ba43-7a58e1d5d2c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Starting point for calculating inferential distance?
One of the shiniest ideas I picked up from LW is inferential distance. I say "shiny" because the term, so far as I'm aware, has no clear mathematical or pragmatic definition, no substantive use in peer reviewed science, but was novel to me and appeared to make a lo... |
629e4ed9-4429-4a22-a542-bc00424f26d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I Stand by the Sequences
Edit, May 21, 2012: Read this comment by Yvain.
> Forming your own opinion is no more necessary than building your own furniture.
- Peter de Blanc
There's been a lot of talk here lately about how we need better contrarians. I don't agree. I think the Sequences got everything right and I agr... |
43199af5-0cd1-400e-bee5-0fdddabc9aa5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Birth and Death of Sydney — The Bayesian Conspiracy Podcast
We discuss Microsoft’s new Bing search chatbot – Sydney. It received a wave of media coverage due to erratic behavior, before being neutered by Microsoft. A dive into its behavior, human responses, and implications.
Links
The Birth and Death of Sydney
“... |
1adfcf4f-ae74-4ecc-9144-8a50fe74f856 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to deal with someone in a LessWrong meeting being creepy
One of the lessons highlighted in the thread "Less Wrong NYC: Case Study of a Successful Rationalist Chapter" is Gender ratio matters.
There have recently been a number of articles addressing one social skills issue that might be affecting this, from the pe... |
36113776-1b4a-4fa8-ade7-7389dc95fcfd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Plausible cases for HRAD work, and locating the crux in the "realism about rationality" debate
This post is my attempt to summarize and distill the major public debates about MIRI's highly reliable agent designs (HRAD) work (which includes work on decision theory), including the discussions in Realism about rationalit... |
3391d309-52e2-4962-b089-7642dd34de03 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What do trust and sharing do to reputations?
Bryan Caplan asked, ‘when doesn’t reputation work well?‘
He answers,
> To me, venereal disease is the most striking response. Unlike other disease, V.D. is simple to prevent: Only have sex with people who credibly show that they aren’t infected. How hard is that? But a... |
0502c9cc-1e40-4f3d-9fef-8bab6bf5edf8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A new blog with analyses of various topics (e. g. slavery and capitalism, why election models didn't predict Trump's victory)
|
7d0a6424-af19-4b1b-80e1-8dfaa31efa2f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety Debate and Its Applications
All of the experimental work and some of the theoretical work has been done jointly with Anna Gajdova, David Lindner, Lukas Finnveden, and Rajashree Agrawal as part of the third AI Safety Camp. We are grateful to Ryan Carey and Geoffrey Irving for the advice regarding this project... |
e9c3807e-2c9c-4371-830c-059cc03f1119 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to debate when authority is questioned, but really not needed?
Especially in the comments of political articles or about economic issues I find myself arguing with people who question my authority about a topic rather than refute my arguments.
----
Examples may be:
1:
Me: I think money printing by the Fed will... |
f60b57f5-deed-4c87-8ba8-38652b93719f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How many parameters do self-driving-car neural nets have?
Take Teslas, for example. In particular, take the neural nets driving this car here. How many parameters do they have? I just need a ballpark estimate, within one order of magnitude would be great. If not for Tesla, then for Waymo or some such.
(My google-fu i... |
44fe3337-16b8-466e-a2aa-4fe83da00bf5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Formal definition of the free group
The [https://arbital.com/p/-5kg](https://arbital.com/p/-5kg) may be constructed formally using van der Waerden's trick, which is not intuitive at all but leads to a definition that is very easy to work with. This page will detail van der Waerden's construction, and will prove that t... |
69831ae2-9c90-4650-a528-277cc7aa1c04 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Strange Loops - Self-Reference from Number Theory to AI
Summary
I see this post as essentially trying to make clear the link between self-reference as discussed in Hofstadter’s “Gödel, Escher, Bach” and self-reference as considered in some of MIRI’s work on Embedded Agency. I start by considering instances of self-re... |
7504bae8-1154-4ab4-b014-9e6b17432cc1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | What's Left Before AGI? PaLM-E, 'GPT 4' and Multi-Modality
palm e was released less than a week ago
and for some people it may already be
old news sure it can understand and
manipulate language images and even the
physical world the e at the end of palm
e By the way stands for embodied but
soon apparently ... |
980c38ac-989f-4198-aa2d-881fbae1ce2b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | UML IV: Linear Predictors
(This is the fourth post in a series on Machine Learning based on this book. Click here for part one. If you have some background knowledge, this post might work as a stand-alone read.)
The mission statement for this post is simple: we wish to study the class of linear predictors. There are ... |
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