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15675c75-ba58-4dd4-82d3-95b9c9791bc7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Productivity 101 For Beginners
I'd like to believe that I'm pretty productive, and people seem interested in how I do it. Previously, I had written "How I Am Productive"and it became one of my most popular essays of all time.
The real secret is that, in the past, I wasn't nearly as productive. I struggled with proc... |
ed281aaa-d1bc-4e11-8fe6-24ec28a30822 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are Mixture-of-Experts Transformers More Interpretable Than Dense Transformers?
Intuitively, I would expect Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models (e.g. https://arxiv.org/abs/2101.03961) to be a lot more interpretable than dense transformers:
1. The complexity of an interconnected system increases way faster than linearl... |
9b37d856-3da9-4b37-9caf-47a0dce36312 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where is the line between being a good child and taking care of oneself?
I recently saw some posts here about how LW helps with personal stuff and that it's a good idea to post here1. Plus, you are the most supportive people I've ever met. I still hesitate. Know my courage. Also, I pretty much always put needs and fee... |
290cbe41-af7e-497f-a5e9-ce05e659236e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Childhood Role Model
When I lecture on the Singularity, I often draw a graph of the "scale of intelligence" as it appears in everyday life:
But this is a rather parochial view of intelligence. Sure, in everyday life, we only deal socially with other humans—only other humans are partners in the great game—and so... |
b5540487-2f6c-40f0-ad8f-09299e8d98fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Podcast - Putanumonit on The Switch
I’m really excited to make my podcast debut on The Switch podcast with Chase Harris and Alex Berner. Here are the links on Apple Podcasts, Play Music, and Spotify.
Topics we covered:
* How business school led me to rationality.
* The origin story and meaning of Putanumonit.
* ... |
5baa8d48-3312-47dd-9bcd-69ad1e62ea6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #103]: ARCHES: an agenda for existential safety, and combining natural language with deep RL
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summarie... |
f4498bc2-bd24-498d-a662-27dfe1a0f02c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nuclear Quantum Immortality Hacking
I will very briefly explain the abridged version of "Quantum Immortality" but you might want to read more about it.
The short version of Quantum Immortality:
"Imagine you are the cat in the Schrödinger experiment, if the many worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is corre... |
4e889ab3-3224-4f8b-a4a1-c581efc2d6fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Scalable Urban Design and the Single Building City
Crossposted from Medium. Initial description of proposed infrastructure.
Epistemic status: I've read a few books on the subject, spent a few months trying different things and working out the details, and am fairly confident this is at least worth a shot; definitel... |
53598b1f-df12-4f35-a5fe-4e6241ddb9eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Approximately Bayesian Reasoning: Knightian Uncertainty, Goodhart, and the Look-Elsewhere Effect
Approximate Bayesian Reasoning
AIXI is well-known model of a Bayesian reasoner. However, it's not a practical one, since both the Solomonoff prior's basis, Kolmogorov complexity, and the rest of the Solomonoff induction pr... |
9ea65652-f80a-4226-b8cc-0e46b468b582 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Controlling your inner control circuits
On the topic of: Control theory
Yesterday, PJ Eby sent the subscribers of his mailing list a link to an article describing a control theory/mindhacking insight he'd had. With his permission, here's a summary of that article. I found it potentially life-changing. The article see... |
f29779d2-aaf9-4bf7-80da-221113488ea2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | *How* people shut down thought because of high-status respectable halos
https://srconstantin.wordpress.com/2016/10/20/ra/
A detailed look at the belief that high status social structures can be so much better than anything one can think of that there's no point in even trying to think about the details of what to do,... |
324a9523-b53b-4487-8dd7-03d9d8cbcb70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | January 1-14, 2012 Open Thread
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
If continuing the discussion becomes impractical, that means you win at open threads; a celebratory top-level post on the topic is traditional.
Poster's Note: omg, it felt so weird typing "2012" ... |
cbb2a330-2bae-4aa8-9215-9919c950a384 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chaos and Consequentialism
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3147f99f-2ec8-4015-b992-369133b70635 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What LCC call numbers would you give "Rationality: AI to Zombie"?
I am currently writing a book and have realized I want to cite Rationality as one of my sources and I'm not sure (a) how to cite the work (in the Chicago author-date style, or (b) how to classify it under the Library of Congress system, which is the sys... |
0a7d48eb-2449-4524-be70-d16bc4a2ffd3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Board Games + Books giveaway
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Board Games + Books giveaway
WHEN: 01 June 2015 06:15:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 1390 Market St., San Francisco, CA
We'll be meeting to hang out and play board games! This is at our apartment because we ha... |
14d8e587-438f-46b3-bd26-f22d4b0bc625 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sequencing Swabs
Update 2024-02-26: due to a serious typo all the results in this post were off by a factor of 100. Sequencing from individuals still looks promising, but by less than it did before. I've updated the numbers in the post, and added notes above the charts to explain how they're wrong. Thanks to Simon Gri... |
44da0a55-b5f8-4466-aa01-88f00036c725 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Recent updates to gwern.net (2015-2016)
> Previously: 2011; 2012-2013; 2013-2014; 2014-2015
"When I was one-and-twenty / I heard a wise man say, / 'Give crowns and pounds and guineas / But not your heart away; / Give pearls away and rubies / But keep your fancy free.' / But I was one-and-twenty, / No use to talk to ... |
c404c05f-18dd-4439-b980-c23584a9bb14 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Types Of Online Meetups
Yesterday I joined Raemon's videoconference-meetup-about-videoconference-meetups, but then I had to leave due to a scheduling conflict.
The thing I wanted to get out of that meetup was ideas for online things I can do with my friends.
I thought I'd post a list of things I've done online with ... |
32b69cfa-2a55-4d10-b3e7-862960362871 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | |
2829fae4-4d62-416c-9607-fa0207230234 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Limits of Superintelligence
Surprisingly, I haven’t seen anything written about the ultimate limits of intelligence. This is a short post where I try to ponder this question.
Superintelligent agents are often portrayed as extremely powerful oracles capable of predicting long-term outcomes of actions and thus steering... |
78561183-4ea7-4760-a96d-bb3f2473354f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Limiting factors to predict AI take-off speed
AI Takeoff refers to “the process of an Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) going from a certain threshold of capability (often discussed as "human-level") to being super-intelligent and capable enough to control the fate of civilization”.
Whether this process will be “... |
456cf52c-3996-44c6-8c82-f75363541dfe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inverse scaling can become U-shaped
Edit: Here's a great comment by Ethan Perez that caveats this result, that I'd recommend reading for context.
This is a paper by folks at Quoc Le's team at Google that examines the winning tasks from Round 1 of Anthropic's Inverse Scaling Prize. They find that 3/4 of the winning ta... |
bb5dea86-09ee-41be-99cc-9a54d32c1466 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should Sports Betting Be Banned?
You may have seen this recent paper on the financial effects of legal online sports betting floating around econ twitter a few weeks ago:
Gambling Away Stability: Sports Betting's Impact on Vulnerable Households by Baker, Balthrop, Johnson, Kotter, and Pisciotta (2024).
The headline ... |
5eec6060-7d6c-4c79-9a76-545f44cbc7b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cooperating with agents with different ideas of fairness, while resisting exploitation
There's an idea from the latest MIRI workshop which I haven't seen in informal theories of negotiation, and I want to know if this is a known idea.
(Old well-known ideas:)
Suppose a standard Prisoner's Dilemma matrix where (3, 3) ... |
71ceba14-3ea2-40be-aace-9be4ba67ed97 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | New GPT-3 competitor
AI21 has trained a new language model, Jurassic-1, whose largest version has 178 billion parameters (GPT-3 had 175 billion). [This paper](https://uploads-ssl.webflow.com/60fd4503684b466578c0d307/61138924626a6981ee09caf6_jurassic_tech_paper.pdf) gives limited technical details.
There already were ... |
3ca2f687-8068-4c14-aa0a-ab5260baa2e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Logical Counterfactuals and Proposition graphs, Part 1
Within this sequence of posts I will outline a procedure for logical counterfactuals based on something similar to proof length. In this post I present a reimagining of propositional logic in which proving a theorem is taking a walk around a graph of equivalent pr... |
935b3233-bda7-4862-b754-df173ad78451 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Trends in DRAM price per gigabyte
The price of a gigabyte of DRAM has fallen by about a factor of ten every 5 years from 1957 to 2020. Since 2010, the price has fallen much more slowly, at a rate that would yield an order of magnitude over roughly 14 years.
Details
=======
Background
----------
DRAM, “dynamic... |
ac64950a-5ff1-44d1-9b0a-fb01b6db9cf1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 2
ETA: There is now a third thread, so send new comments there.
Since the first thread has exceeded 500 comments, it seems time for a new one, with Eliezer's just-posted Chapter 33 & 34 to kick things off.
From previous post:
> Spoiler Warning... |
e6bbb27b-a5d8-4d76-8608-b6d095c429f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Marginal charity
|
010fd5fa-3987-4251-8dad-9518e6e9f51c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Motivation on the margin of saving the world
Most people feel that they have certain responsibilities in life. If they achieve those they feel good about themselves, and anything they do beyond that to make the world better is an increasingly imperceptible bonus.
Some people with unusual moral positions or preference... |
02ae3ea0-ed67-447d-854b-6222cb3201ee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can an AI suffer?
As I have said before in my previous posts, I do not think Friendly-AI is a good idea. Being on this site has me more convinced than before of the feasibility of FAI, but I still do not think that the creation of an FAI, or any other AI for that matter, should be attempted.
We have directives ... |
585e6d45-bcdb-4956-808a-4d8cc48e87e7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Update on the UK AI Taskforce & AI Safety Summit
*While preparing for an upcoming Convergence Analysis post on the UK AI Taskforce and our recommendations, I looked into their reports, their plans for the upcoming AI safety summit, the recommendations from other orgs, and some miscellaneous UK AI events. I doubt we’ll... |
a0addc8f-bd37-4ee8-989a-066baeedc55c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A corpus of our community's knowledge
The purpose of this site is to help building a rationalist community, and helping individuals to fulfill their potential in that domain.
We have a lot of discussions going on, and a lot of material is being, and going to be, generated. At some point it may become difficult for an... |
4664f2cf-2a94-4c18-8e58-f4fe3f41c293 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mr. Meeseeks as an AI capability tripwire
The shutdown problem is hard because self-preservation is a convergent drive. Not being shutdown is useful for accomplishing all sorts of goals, whatever the content of those goals may be.
The Scylla and Charybdis of this problem is that it's hard to write a utility function... |
490e2030-d0a8-40c5-a520-e12fa3c2b3ec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are some low-cognitive -workload tasks that can help improve the world?
I have a chronic health condition which results in significant brain fog, usually lasting a few hours most days. When I don’t have brain fog I can work on high-level technical work with relative ease, but when I’m experiencing symptoms, even ... |
131c03cf-296e-4469-addb-11233269d7c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Study shows placebos can work even if you know it's a placebo
Placebo Effect Benefits Patients Even When They Knowingly Take a Fake Pill
This is a little bit disturbing. (A kind of belief in belief, perhaps? Like, "I know a placebo is where you take a fake pill but it makes you feel better anyway if you believe it's ... |
8a148717-c571-411b-9b40-6171a95fa035 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weird Random Newcomb Problem
Epistemic status: I'm pretty sure the problem is somewhat interesting, because it temporarily confused several smart people. I'm not at all sure that it is very original; probably somebody has already thought about something similar. I'm not at all sure that I have actually found a flaw in... |
a9fd953f-2452-4f70-96bb-82c8eeabdd65 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AISN #16: White House Secures Voluntary Commitments from Leading AI Labs and Lessons from Oppenheimer
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the [Center for AI Safety](https://www.safe.ai/). We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Subscribe [here](https://newsletter.safe.ai/subs... |
834e0805-111b-4fd6-95a5-ff5bb0110534 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups: Penn State, Washington DC, Austin, and Ottawa
There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in:
* Penn State University: NEW Meetup starting!: 22 October 2011 02:00PM
* Ottawa Weekly Monday LessWrong Meetup: 26 September 2011 07:30PM
The following meetups take place in cities with ... |
f1225b22-f999-4b9a-838a-17a2f8a6d472 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stratified learning and action
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
It seems that stratification is more flexible than I initially thought.
That's because the default action or policy ∅, which I was envisioning as a null action (or maybe the AI turning itself off) can actually be more than that. For insta... |
e4afcf7a-5a68-41ea-86c5-93045bcf8292 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Great Mathematicians on Math Competitions and "Genius"
As I mentioned in Fields Medalists on School Mathematics, school mathematics usually gives a heavily distorted picture of mathematical practice. It's common for bright young people to participate in math competitions, an activity which is closer to that of mathema... |
3591875a-a710-4f6b-9113-43790ca8c7b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Bayesian Enlightenment
I remember (dimly, as human memories go) the first time I self-identified as a "Bayesian". Someone had just asked a malformed version of an old probability puzzle, saying:
> If I meet a mathematician on the street, and she says, "I have two children, and at least one of them is a boy," what... |
e73836a6-52d8-4531-8a17-913d0495951e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Hamming Problem of Group Rationality
The upcoming moderation changes are long-term catastrophic. They’re deliberately making it easy for high-status people to silence anyone and everyone they don’t want to hear from, without penalty or stigma. I trust literally no one with this power, even if they have the best of... |
8a24b211-0610-49a3-b729-180c2753a1eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : [Columbus] Upcoming Workshop Topics
Discussion article for the meetup : Upcoming Workshop Topics
WHEN: 15 July 2013, 7:30 pm
WHERE: Columbus, OH
Columbus, OH has a thriving rationality scene. If you live nearby, you should come check us out. PM me here, join the facebook page, or RSVP to the meetup.com site... |
c948f26b-b24c-4335-bb36-5ef67de5ed01 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | 200 COP in MI: Image Model Interpretability
*This is the eighth post in a sequence called 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability.*[*Start here*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/LbrPTJ4fmABEdEnLf/200-concrete-open-problems-in-mechanistic-interpretability)*, then read in any order. If you want t... |
81f8f9d8-01a9-4ee0-a943-bc7e756ff2f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Math-to-English Cheat Sheet
Say you've learnt math in your native language which is not English. Since then you've also read math in English and you appreciate the near universality of mathematical notation. Then one day you want to discuss a formula in real life and you realize you don't know how to pronunce "an".
S... |
e8e28a02-5586-4e45-aad1-8fc96e993b66 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gravity Turn
[The first in a sequence of retrospective essays on my five years in math graduate school.]
My favorite analogy for graduate school is the gravity turn: the maneuver a rocket performs to get from the launch pad to orbit. I like to imagine a first-year graduate student as a Falcon X rocket, newly-construc... |
5ce0c5e3-36bd-44b9-a737-526193885fc3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A visual analogy for text generation by LLMs?
|
7bccd0e2-5345-4c65-8298-63348297249e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Want to predict/explain/control the output of GPT-4? Then learn about the world, not about transformers.
Introduction
============
Consider Act II Scene II of William Shakespeare's *Julius Caesar.*
In this scene, Caesar is at home with his wife Calphurnia, who has just had a bad dream and is pleading with him not to... |
399f5021-bce9-4afb-83c1-9f7936948f27 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC: Dog Clickers
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC: Dog Clickers
WHEN: 02 March 2014 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC 20001, USA
We'll be meeting to see if we can train people to do things with dog clickers.
Discussion article for the meetup :... |
32f90cc7-91cc-41b2-a141-4b401edb5666 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When is rationality useful?
In addition to my skepticism about the foundations of epistemic rationality, I’ve long had doubts about the effectiveness of instrumental rationality. In particular, I’m inclined to attribute the successes of highly competent people primarily to traits like intelligence, personality and wor... |
5c6b2c12-20e8-4fb8-8593-74df616f1dba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Arguments against existential risk from AI, part 2
In this post, I provide some counterarguments to the arguments in [Part 1.](https://ninarimsky.substack.com/p/arguments-against-existential-risk) I then introduce two additional reasons why one may believe existential threats from AI systems are unlikely.
Recap
====... |
a837e6dd-b004-46ba-8bb2-2506acff530f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Corrigible but misaligned: a superintelligent messiah
If we build an AGI, we'd really like it to be [corrigible](https://arbital.com/p/corrigibility/). Some ways Paul Christiano has [described corrigibility](https://ai-alignment.com/corrigibility-3039e668638): "[The AI should help me] figure out whether I built the ... |
68925c06-3087-437e-96c1-85205be5ab6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What I've Learned From My Parents' Arranged Marriage
When I tell people my parents had an arranged marriage, I get a number of different reactions. Most people have the wrong idea of exactly what that looks like, and those who do have the right idea often wonder if my parents can even understand what dating is like, g... |
1a2b1458-3bb7-410b-9a8b-4786e8881fad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Staying Grounded
What does it mean to “stay grounded”? Why does it matter? How does one stay grounded?
Examples
Let’s start with a bunch of examples of grounding failures - i.e. people failing to stay grounded.
* The person who Volunteers to End Hunger, or End Poverty, or what have you, yet they do not actually ma... |
1fc42820-40d8-416d-be64-3273c970c62c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Introducing the Longevity Research Institute
I’ve just founded a nonprofit, the Longevity Research Institute — you can check it out [here.](https://thelri.org/)
The basic premise is: we know there are more than 50 compounds that have been reported to extend healthy lifespan in mammals, but most of these have never be... |
88bbbe26-2b29-4bc3-aef2-231ba2a8aea2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Goal setting journal (November)
Inspired by the group rationality diary and open thread, this is the second goal setting journal (GSJ) thread.
If you have a goal worth setting then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future GSJ posters:
1. Please add the 'gsj' tag.
2. Check if ther... |
a39b504c-e88e-4b89-b108-89e0172fdba4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | An Integrated Framework for Learning and Reasoning
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54f3b7ed-3a6e-4151-897a-21d53e6f3904 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Chance-Constrained Control with Lexicographic Deep Reinforcement Learning
THIS IS A PREPRINT VERSION. IF YOU FOUND THIS READ ING USEFUL FOR YOUR RESEARCH PLEASE CITE
THE PUBLISHED VERSION https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/9031720 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/LCSYS.2020.2979635
BIB: @article{Giuseppi2... |
73f2fd9e-1cb9-4b7d-8f58-68fda4b69a75 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Historical Net Worth
Julia recently posted about how we're still donating 50%, which included this chart of monthly spending from our 2024 spending update:
While each year before 2024 we'd been saving some, 2024 was the first year in which we were drawing from savings to make donations. Noticing this prompted Da... |
7a8b7942-f629-4abb-8d07-e1e28a4bb9f6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Humans aren't fitness maximizers
Recently I've gotten a bunch of pushback when I claim that humans are not maximizers of inclusive genetic fitness (IGF).
I think that part of what's going on here is a conflation of a few claims.
One claim that is hopefully uncontroversial (but that I'll expand upon below anyway) is:... |
55e8089f-d975-4787-9dfb-db29ef624aa5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Timeline tools?
What would be useful to me now is a tool to help order, visualize and prioritize tasks for a larger project. I'm organizing a fundraising campaign for the non-profit I work with, and there are lots of tasks and some dependencies.
I'm trying some Excel spreadsheet templates for starters - the ones link... |
99940f0d-8994-49ae-b85f-15ea5b0ecec6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Procrastination is not real, it can't hurt you
tldr: what appears as procrastination is actually a broad label for seeming mismatch or contradiction of internal desires, and the solution is to do more actions that seem default
A student approaches the master for his guidance.
Student: I want to become the best marti... |
ce7c4555-6039-4328-bc1d-a61aa0af95b5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Results of $1,000 Oracle contest!
Almost a year ago, I posted [a contest to find the best questions to ask an Oracle AI](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cSzaxcmeYW6z7cgtc/contest-usd1-000-for-good-questions-to-ask-to-an-oracle-ai). I've been very slow in grading it, apologies for that, but here are the final results a... |
9bf4038f-9c79-41b2-abb7-54622b328369 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Prague Less Wrong Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Prague Less Wrong Meetup
WHEN: 02 December 2015 07:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Peckova 15 182 00 Praha 8
I would like to announce our next Prague Less Wrong meetup. It will be held in a tea-room at Karlinske square on December 2nd starting at 7 p.m. (... |
28f7ad88-d6f8-41af-a1ad-a5d65f86cfcd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : LessWrong Montreal Biweekly Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : LessWrong Montreal Biweekly Meetup
WHEN: 09 April 2013 06:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 655 Ave. Du President Kennedy Montreal
Meetups are now Tuesday, and biweekly!
See you there.
Discussion article for the meetup : LessWrong Montreal Biwe... |
2d56a754-3c6f-4ce3-9f01-91f43a550242 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knowledge is Freedom
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
[Epistemic Status: Type Error]
In this post, I try to build up an ontology around the following definition of knowledge:
To know something is to have the set of policies available to you closed under conditiona... |
f6e94e88-bc2a-4fc5-92fc-6769f59f93d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Introduction to Löb's Theorem in MIRI Research
At a recent MIRIx workshop, I gave an introductory talk about the surprising number of times that MIRI applied Löb's Theorem in their research papers. It was well-received, so I wrote up and expanded my notes into a primer for new researchers:
An Introduction to Löb's... |
739a47cf-b4e8-4546-8174-94bc462739d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Teaching AI to reason: this year's most important story
This doesn't contain much new to LW readers. I wrote it to try to explain what's going on to a broader audience – I'm posting in case people find it helpful for that. Feedback welcome.
Most people think of AI as a pattern-matching chatbot – good at writing email... |
b3f120ce-ecd5-4755-aabd-a2e4abd29f10 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Future of Life Institute’s recent milestones in AI safety
In January, many months of effort by FLI’s founders and volunteers finally came to fruition – the [Puerto Rico conference](http://futureoflife.org/misc/AI_conference), [open letter](http://futureoflife.org/misc/open_letter) and [grants program announcement](htt... |
53341d38-ee06-4334-9b85-a069669b3681 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Limits Of Medicine - Part 2 - Homogeneity Assumptions
This is part of a series of articles I'm writing to try and present a clear framework around where medicine is lacking and what easy wins might be found -- This one is "basic but necessary" in that I try to explain a concept that's rather familiar to most peopl... |
35b4c806-e1e2-4f51-b0e6-c53dbb7f3ac6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Knowledge is not just digital abstraction layers
Knowledge is not just digital abstraction layers
================================================
*Financial status: This is independent research. I welcome* [*financial support*](https://www.alexflint.io/donate.html) *to make further posts like this possible.*
*Epi... |
d148f4e1-5085-4f3c-9074-15a35982c7c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Most Important Century: Sequence Introduction
[Moderators' note: with permission, I am crossposting Holden Karnofsky's Most Important Century series, originally published on his blog. In my (Ruby's) opinion, this may be the most compelling extant write-up that argues we are living in an exceptionally important ti... |
ca720f59-f726-40f2-bb91-6943e84d33d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Do You Convince Your Parents To Prep? To Quarantine?
A number of my friends are having difficulty conveying the seriousness of COVID-19 to their parents, or getting them to take action instead of panic. What have you found useful in convincing your parents to prep and stay home, and for bonus points, convincing th... |
a2552471-145b-47a7-8187-fc9d6e01014e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | SAE-VIS: Announcement Post
This is a post to officially announce the sae-vis library, which was designed to create feature dashboards like those from Anthropic's research.
Summary
There are 2 types of visualisations supported by this library: feature-centric and prompt-centric.
The feature-centric vis is the standa... |
50110cee-d83d-452e-b038-9b2c9a758a06 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Lawful Uncertainty
Today's post, Lawful Uncertainty was originally published on 10 November 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Facing a random scenario, the correct solution is really not to behave randomly. Faced with an irrational universe, throwing away your rationality won't help.
Discus... |
c6384c61-355a-4f14-bd35-78786b4b1c48 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How should dance venues best protect the drinks of attendees?
In a social circle I’m in, there’s a problem now and then with people being drugged without their knowledge, via other patrons slipping drugs like roofies or GHB into their drinks. A DJ friend of mine is looking for ways to protect attendees to her shows. B... |
94411ecd-00a6-4cde-b4a8-01f31fec394e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Natural Selection Favors AIs over Humans.
Dan HendrycksNatural Selection
Favors AIs over Humans
Natural Selection Favors AIs over Humans
Dan Hendrycks
Center for AI Safety
Abstract
For billions of years, evolution has been the driving force behind the development of life, including
humans. Evolution endowed humans wit... |
64be2c7c-2be7-410c-82fd-ad5f0759e64e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | How To Know What the AI Knows - An ELK Distillation
*This is what I submitted in May 2022 for the* [*Safety Distillation Contest*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/C5e7ghGmFFwdqaFsT/calling-for-student-submissions-ai-safety-distillation-1)*.*
Why we care about knowing what an AI knows
---------------------------------... |
c68c3dde-bbb2-4978-8009-bb136354ef51 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking feedback on a critique of the paperclip maximizer thought experiment
Hello LessWrong community,
I'm working on a paper that challenges some aspects of the paperclip maximizer thought experiment and the broader AI doomer narrative. Before submitting a full post, I'd like to gauge interest and get some initial... |
d02f1829-927a-4ba1-aaea-8634e0eaf1e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Proposal to increase fertility: University parent clubs
Fertility rates in the developed world are too low and that's bad, blah blah.
Here's my proposal to raise fertility rates (coming from a current uni student):
Promote parenthood in universities via student run clubs. Reading groups about different parenting sty... |
3adadf45-7c11-428e-9cc5-996886dca299 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hope Function
Yesterday I finished transcribing "The Ups and Downs of the Hope Function In a Fruitless Search". This is a statistics & psychology paper describing a simple probabilistic search problem and the sheer difficulty subjects have in producing the correct Bayesian answer. Besides providing a great but simple ... |
0f572966-e694-414d-8c35-4c0eb5fa744c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Quantity/Quality of Researchers Has Drastically Increased Over the Centuries
For just about any academic field F and number X greater than ~100, there are a lot more F researchers than there were X years ago, and this remains true if you restrict to researchers above a given level of quality/competence Q.
This ob... |
aa910861-ac46-4b14-8be7-79677e502c33 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Executive Director for AIS France - Expression of interest
TLDR:
ENAIS is teaming up with community builders from Paris to seed AIS France. You can read about the role below, and if you would be interested in founding such an organisation, fill out this expression of interest form. We are currently in discussions with... |
4f34e469-6920-402b-a8c5-24ae0482cdbe | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is deceptive alignment?
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IeWljQw3UgQ" title="Deceptive Misaligned Mesa-Optimisers? It's More Likely Than You Think..." frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" allowfullscreen></iframe>
[D... |
f2300163-b029-460a-baff-db4ce6e9aaa4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Possible research directions to improve the mechanistic explanation of neural networks
Why I like the Circuits approach
In early 2020 I skimmed through the neural network explainability literature which was already quite massive at that time. I was left quite discouraged about the utility of the explanation techniques... |
01d6da01-f853-47ea-934d-659da5748f4a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Penicillin and syphilis
*By Katja Grace, 2 February 2015*
[Penicillin](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penicillium) was a hugely important discovery. But was it a [discontinuity](http://aiimpacts.org/cases-of-discontinuous-technological-progress/ "Cases of Discontinuous Technological Progress") in the normal progressio... |
24870339-d41b-4c58-9b0a-835b6cbcc01d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | IRL in General Environments
Here is a proposal for Inverse Reinforcement Learning in General Environments. (2 1/2 pages; very little math).
Copying the introduction here:
The eventual aim of IRL is to understand human goals. However, typical algorithms for IRL assume the environment is finite-state Markov, and it is... |
d676e316-8c80-447f-960e-3444163559b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup :
Discussion article for the meetup :
WHEN: 01 June 2013 04:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Berkeley
Discussion article for the meetup : |
e3d88241-3266-4075-8b79-f6f293f4a8c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against Rationalization II: Sequence Recap
Previously: Eliezer's "Against Rationalization" sequence
I've run out of things to say about rationalization for the moment. Hopefully there'll be an Against Rationalization III a few years from now, but ideally some third author will write it.
For now, a quick recap to dou... |
62cd8bd2-caee-46a4-b067-0ae6ddd8cf99 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments
A parole board considers the release of a prisoner: Will he be violent again? A hiring officer considers a job candidate: Will she be a valuable asset to the company? A young couple considers marriage: Will they have a happy marriage?
The cached wisdom f... |
b031c7fb-919a-4594-b918-3e5d48684c68 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | No, really, it predicts next tokens.
Epistemic status: mulled over an intuitive disagreement for a while and finally think I got it well enough expressed to put into a post. I have no expertise in any related field. Also: **No, really, it predicts next tokens.** (edited to add: while I still mostly endorse the claim, ... |
482a6b8f-75bc-4518-a433-3f1230e50ff8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does Your Morality Care What You Think?
Followup to: Math is Subjunctively Objective, The Moral Void, Is Morality Given?
> Thus I recall the study, though I cannot recall the citation:
>
> Children, at some relatively young age, were found to distinguish between:
>
> * The teacher, by saying that we're allowed to... |
da44ed67-f2e3-4728-bef7-d16a326c9078 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New meet up in Las Vegas!
Hey guys, I'd just like to announce that I'm starting a new meet up in Las Vegas!
WHEN: First and third Sunday of the month. 7pm-9pm.
WHERE: The Market (downtown on Fremont Street).
See http://lesswrong.com/meetups/1xg. |
562ba03b-8c40-450a-9533-271c45455f8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (Ir)rationality of Pascal's wager
During the last few weeks I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about ,,Pascalian” themes, like the paradoxes generated by introducing infinities in ethics or decision theory. In this post I want to focus on Pascal’s wager (Hajek, 2018), and why it is (ir)rational to accept it.
Firstly, ... |
1071d836-f1a7-4d36-8f3f-e79535e1ca17 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Interactively shaping agents via human reinforcement: The TAMER framework
To appear in The Fifth International Conference on Knowledge Capture (K-CAP 09),
Redondo Beach, California, USA, September 2009.
Interactivel yShaping Agents via Human Reinf orcement
The TAMER Frame work
W.Bradle yKno x
Depar tment ofComputer Sc... |
bac1acde-52c2-4f57-9d6d-80577fd6d564 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Breakdown of existential risks
Due to my colleague, Anders Sandberg:
|
a5774165-ca7e-461f-9ef2-151ee46b40aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | July 2012 Media Thread
This is the monthly thread for posting media of various types that you've found that you enjoy. I find that exposure to LW ideas makes me less likely to enjoy some entertainment media that is otherwise quite popular, and finding media recommended by LWers is a good way to mitigate this. Post wha... |
1b10c767-2f02-4fd2-bbf5-832a65f45fa0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How good is security for LessWrong and the Alignment Forum?
As far as I can tell, LessWrong/Alignment Forum haven’t been noticeably attacked or disrupted. However, I’m concerned that could change because:
* Attack command, control and automation will definitely improve, making more sophisticated attacks easier to de... |
0a8e5f64-b8bb-4301-855e-60b01b33a421 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The LessWrong 2018 Review
LessWrong is currently doing a major review of 2018 — looking back at old posts and considering which of them have stood the tests of time. It has three phases:
* Nomination (ends Dec 1st at 11:59pm PST)
* Review (ends Dec 31st)
* Voting on the best posts (ends January 7th)
Authors will ... |
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