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6f78aea6-a212-4770-b5a4-a7d200ea5a15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : April Atlanta Meetup! Friday, April 19th
Discussion article for the meetup : April Atlanta Meetup! Friday, April 19th
WHEN: 19 April 2013 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 1314 Hosea L Williams Drive NE, Atlanta, GA 30317
Note: The date for this meetup was previously incorrect. The correct date is Friday, April 19t... |
85ed0c55-f6dd-4f7e-bccf-ff6bf3f9a9b7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Meta-Inverse Reinforcement Learning with Probabilistic Context Variables
1 Introduction
---------------
While reinforcement learning (RL) has been
successfully applied to a range of
decision-making and control tasks in the real world, it relies on a key assumption: having access to a well-defined reward function th... |
6eb0b7dd-c669-400c-92bf-58fe59405cb7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | AISafety.com Reading Group Session 79 (fixed)
I think it's customary that I introduce
your Armstrong Stewart Armstrong will is
from the future of humanity Institute
and center Thomas fellow I think and
you're he's been he's working in the
harder more mathematical part of AI
safety he is at least outside of the
United ... |
a9326cb0-d3e0-4d54-bdd5-7d0374305830 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to bayesian update on multiple covid tests?
I'm curious how I should think about the risk of hanging out with a friend (who is 2x pfizer vaccinated). It seems like a good opportunity for bayesian thinking in the real world, but I'm really unclear how to think about it.
Info: he tested positive on 4 UK lateral fl... |
27959c70-8ee6-44a5-aaa0-023056f45a54 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do you want to be like Kuro5hin? Because this is how you get to be like Kuro5hin.
I log in this morning on a whim, and notice I have -15 karma. I dig around for a bit and find this:
http://lesswrong.com/lw/nsm/open_thread_jul_25_jul_31_2016/ddjm
To be clear, that's a block of four comments, each at -10, for no app... |
af54c659-afe2-4a53-afcf-e2c9f1f93ed1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weirdos and foreigners
Cross posted from Overcoming Bias. Comments there.
***
Maybe this is old advice, or so obvious that everyone figures it out. But handy tip for if you are strange, and you want others to not think you are strange: hang out with foreigners.
To foreigners, everyone from your culture is strange. ... |
46668ce7-2d28-40d8-a017-181f8b13d249 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | February 2015 Newsletter
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[Machine Intelligence Research Institute](http://intelligence.org)
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**Research Updates**
* Four new reports in support of our [new technical agenda overview](https://intelligence.org/2014/12/23/new-t... |
9d1176c0-107e-4837-8437-e86577e35f3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The University of Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) is hiring!
The University of Cambridge Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER) is recruiting for an Academic Project Manager. This is an opportunity to play a shaping role as CSER builds on its first year's momentum towards becoming a ... |
e3fd78f5-cf41-4918-b71a-df9f3e06b748 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wouldn't an intelligent agent keep us alive and help us align itself to our values in order to prevent risk ?
by Risk I mean experimentation by trying to align potentially smarter replicas?
I was wondering about some very dumb argument on alignment but no one answered to me.
I am in the research of reasons of why an ... |
078730d1-4702-4b91-8b45-4ff0929e890d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | ML-Quadrat & DriotData: A Model-Driven Engineering Tool and a Low-Code Platform for Smart IoT Services
1. Introduction
----------------
In line with the Computer-Aided Design (CAD) trend, e.g., for the hardware products, the idea of Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) was proposed in 1968 mostly through the ... |
5ed05296-2740-494b-9eca-1a948292cf97 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How does forecast quantity impact forecast quality on Metaculus?
Cross-posted from the EA Forum
Introduction
Many people, myself included, worry about how much we can trust aggregate forecasts (e.g., the Metaculus community median) that are based on the predictions of only a small number of individuals. This consid... |
18762b68-fbfd-4fcc-a22f-d7e415a4dfa5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LINK: Bayesian statistics is so subversive, it's banned in China!
Funny link. |
780c088a-25ed-4206-8da3-a4377a04bc30 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #164]: How well can language models write code?
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spreadsheet](https:... |
a1506297-bfc4-47f3-9aa7-240d1db77511 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Unity Gridworlds
**Summary:**
[*Unity Gridworlds*](https://github.com/Will9371/Grid-Worlds) is an open-source recreation of DeepMind’s 2017 paper, [*AI Safety Gridworlds*](https://arxiv.org/abs/1711.09883) in the Unity game engine, including a level editor that decreases the barrier to entry for non-specialists to de... |
12176936-da4a-440b-91da-2ac77c247927 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | *NYT Op-Ed* The Government Knows A.G.I. Is Coming
All around excellent back and forth, I thought, and a good look back at what the Biden admin was thinking about the future of AI.
an excerpt:
> [Ben Buchanan, Biden AI adviser:] What we’re saying is: We were building a foundation for something that was coming that wa... |
7bb4c46d-e74f-4988-9d91-465ae9fa66c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quote dump for "megamistakes"
This post contains a dump of the less important quotes from Megamistakes that I omitted from the main post in order to keep it short.
#1: Quote dumps related to bad timing
On the fax machine, quote from p. 57 of the book:
> Originally, the facsimile machine, or sending mail by phone, ... |
7a2239ae-e603-4846-a221-bda98a2f9465 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The AI Safety Game (UPDATED)
Last year, Donald Hobson created this awesome AI Safety card game. I and a few other people at MSFP played it and had loads of fun. :) Unfortunately, we've lost the cards, and the rules. So I'm reviving the game here. Enjoy! (Also, please invent and add new cards to the spreadsheet!)
(UPD... |
af77d3d6-6275-49f0-b18d-4f0c269fe012 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kelly Criteria and Two Envelopes
(This post is motivated by recent discussions here of the two titular topics.)
Suppose someone hands you two envelopes and gives you some information that allows you to conclude either:
1. The expected ratio of amount of money in the red envelope to the amount in the blue is >1, or
... |
5bd392c4-13e8-4bb2-9fc1-058ffc2d6c1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Katla on death as entertainment
I’m rather busy this week, so here you have a guest post from my mildly irate, judgemental and intellectually careless friend Katla. NB. We are only friends because we grew up in the same town.
***
As a creature, I have a nicely developed fear of death. I don’t like thinking about dea... |
7c777ace-126f-4439-8763-07a354913a31 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Monotone function: examples
Here are some examples of monotone functions.
A cunning plan
--------
There's a two-player game called 10 questions, in which player A begins the game by stating "I'm thinking of an X", where X can be replaced with any noun of player A's choosing.
Then player B asks player A a series of ... |
42c632ba-c661-4ce5-afab-0330ea5472fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : London social meetup in my flat
Discussion article for the meetup : London social meetup in my flat
WHEN: 23 November 2014 02:00:00PM (+0000)
WHERE: Flat 3, 9 White Church Lane, E1 7QR
(It is also James/kerspoon's flat, but I don't know a way to put both of us in that phrase without it sounding atrocious.)... |
6e389b84-19c7-4b05-a70e-acf3b4fcdc44 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New intro textbook on AIXI
Marcus Hutter and his PhD students David Quarel and Elliot Catt have just published a new textbook called An Introduction to Universal Artificial Intelligence.
"Universal AI" refers to the body of theory surrounding Hutter's AIXI, which is a model of ideal agency combining Solomonoff induct... |
3fe73c67-c862-4883-85ce-dd4035eafe71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How does the ever-increasing use of AI in the military for the direct purpose of murdering people affect your p(doom)?
I haven't personally heard a lot of recent discussions about it, which is strange considering that both startups like Andruil and Palantir are developing systems for military use, OpenAI recently dele... |
8342f71f-919a-4742-80ae-100119ffb476 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Autopilot Ethics And The Illusory Self
I think most people reading this blog agree that the folk idea of a "self" is bunk. There is no ghost or homunculus unconstrained by physical reality controlling our body, nor are our future or past actions understandable or predictable by our current self.
I assume this seems u... |
8e63b441-0752-4faa-9ec6-ab68335339a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Computational Complexity of Circuit Discovery for Inner Interpretability
Authors: Federico Adolfi, Martina G. Vilas, Todd Wareham.
Abstract:
> Many proposed applications of neural networks in machine learning, cognitive/brain science, and society hinge on the feasibility of inner interpretability via circuit dis... |
18ac1f8e-fe65-46da-8387-b0239f906ce7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Deep Ensembles: A Loss Landscape Perspective
1 Introduction
---------------
Consider a typical classification problem, where xn∈RD denotes the D-dimensional features and yn∈[1,…,K] denotes the class label.
Assume we have a parametric model p(y|x,θ) for the conditional distribution where θ denotes weights and biases... |
0dc71a42-e82b-4eb4-b81f-4d2b0b8a9be7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Is this a good way to bet on short timelines?
I was mildly disappointed in the responses to [my last question](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4FhiSuNv4QbtKDzL8/how-can-i-bet-on-short-timelines), so I did a bit of thinking and came up with some answers myself. I'm not super happy with them either, and would love feedb... |
a8c9bd94-6ac6-45cb-9686-094cc50c19e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Might whole brain emulation require quantum-level emulation?
Most experts seem to think that whole brain emulation will not require emulation down to the quantum level, but perhaps at the level of atoms or even molecules, either of which is far more computationally tractable than quantum-level brain emulation. Those w... |
cf7f34f5-fee0-4aba-8749-3dc936f6ba52 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Takeaways from sketching a control safety case
Buck Shlegeris and I recently published a paper with UK AISI that sketches a safety case for “AI control” – safety measures that improve safety despite intentional subversion from AI systems.
I would summarize this work as “turning crayon drawings of safety cases into bl... |
53dc4bf2-dd3f-4b19-90d6-5a12a2ad96da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] NYU conference: Ethics of Artificial Intelligence (October 14-15)
FYI: https://wp.nyu.edu/consciousness/ethics-of-artificial-intelligence/
> This conference will explore these questions about the ethics of artificial intelligence and a number of other questions, including:
>
> What ethical principles should A... |
6da0b26e-ba9b-41c9-a279-0ab70ab1da0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Quote] Why does i show up in Quantum Mechanics and other Beautiful Math Mysteries
David Schneider-Joseph writes on Facebook:
In principle, this isn’t really any more mysterious than, say, -1/2 showing up somewhere. It’s unfortunate that imaginary numbers got called imaginary because they’re not really any less real ... |
c457eb4a-4f9e-49bb-9a52-65126656c21f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Want to help MIRI by investing in XRP?
Recently, [Mt.Gox](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mt.Gox) and [Ripple](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ripple_(payment_protocol)) creator Jed McCaleb gave MIRI a large donation in [XRP](https://ripple.com/currency/), ... |
d8a55933-94f3-4355-b0c4-ccaad2e0da23 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Should we postpone AGI until we reach safety?
Should we postpone AGI, until its risks have fallen below a certain level, thereby applying the precautionary principle? And if so, would setting up policy be a promising way to achieve this?
As I argued [here in the comments](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JPan54R525D68... |
6d2a84b7-c350-469b-a261-68b34eaced1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Narrative Theory. Part 6. Artificial Neural Networks
“Alan Turing started off by wanting to 'build the brain' and ended up with a computer”
- Henry Markram, The Blue Brain Project
> Recently I’ve come to terms with the idea that I have to publish my research even if it feels unfinished or slightly controversial. The ... |
31321853-eef8-4c2c-9b72-85cd0762ab76 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Building Explainable Artificial Intelligence Systems
Building Explainable Artificial Intelligence Systems
Mark G. Core,H. Chad Lane, Michael vanLent, DaveGomboc, SteveSolomon and
MiltonRosenberg
TheInstitute for CreativeTechnologies,The Universityof Southern California
13274 Fiji Way,Marina del Rey,CA 90292 USA
core,la... |
35c42e40-1a71-4aa5-b89e-9443d38303d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alignment Newsletter #46
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter.
Highlights
Better Language Models and Their Implications (Alec Radford, Jeffrey Wu, Dario Amodei, Ilya Sutskever et al): Open... |
87c5efc7-6cc9-4d4e-b388-db59dbb0baa4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Is the ChatGPT-simulated Linux virtual machine real?
Context: [Building A Virtual Machine inside ChatGPT](https://www.engraved.blog/building-a-virtual-machine-inside/)
It very much triggers my "roll to disbelieve" reflex, but people seem to be talking about it as if it's real and not *that* surprising. I'd try it my... |
f9925ec8-9b45-46ad-9036-d7aa410afff1 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "The source is here. I'll restate the problem in simpler terms:
You are one of a group of 10 people who care about saving African kids. You will all be put in separate rooms, then I will flip a coin. If the coin comes up heads, a random one of you will be designated as the "decider". If it comes up tails, nine of you w... |
d249e382-e234-4aea-87ab-7c717c55f256 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Best Textbooks on Every Subject
For years, my self-education was stupid and wasteful. I learned by consuming blog posts, Wikipedia articles, classic texts, podcast episodes, popular books, video lectures, peer-reviewed papers, Teaching Company courses, and Cliff's Notes. How inefficient!
I've since discovered tha... |
0e29b50f-09b7-4b65-ad93-969a36ad8ef6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cultivating Valiance
When I discovered existential risk from AGI I was surprised to learn most people find the topic distressing or depressing. I realized everyone dying with a high probability should feel bad ... but it just didn't. Instead I felt the desire to punch the problem in the face (don't ask me how that wou... |
f9e26aed-b215-45c8-b7d2-b090ebbfdef7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | “embedded self-justification,” or something like that
**preamble**
Sometimes I wonder what the MIRI-type crowd thinks about some issue related to their interests. So I go to alignmentforum.org, and quickly get in over my head, lost in a labyrinth of issues I only half understand.
I can never tell whether they’ve ne... |
c7d2329d-7c89-4be5-a509-db642ff92cbd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sensory modality for code
This post is inspired by Chimera wanting to talk about "Levels of Organization in General Intelligence."
In the paper, Eliezer mentions giving a seed AI a sensory modality for code. And I think it'll be fun to figure out just what that means.
Code is a pretty simple environment compared... |
63a83cb3-4ebf-4b74-904b-c38d366c1e8f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cross-Validation vs Bayesian Model Comparison
Suppose we need to predict the outcomes of simulated dice rolls as a project for a machine learning class. We have two models: an "unbiased" model, which assigns equal probability to all outcomes, and a "biased" model, which learns each outcome frequency from the data.
In... |
5096bcab-318f-4d0a-95e1-e467ed81accf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Collapse Postulates
Today's post, Collapse Postulates was originally published on 09 May 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Early physicists simply didn't think of the possibility of more than one world - it just didn't occur to them, even though it's the straightforward result of applying the... |
6ba2a5ab-c241-4ebd-8efa-8f46eaf9581b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reducing Agents: When abstractions break
Epistemic Effort: A month of dwelling on this idea, 12-16 hours of writing to explore the idea, and 2-5 hours rereading old LW stuff.
In the past few months, I’ve been noticing more things that lead me to believe there’s something incomplete about how I think about beliefs, mo... |
36674b83-5fa2-4ddc-b643-0e548384322e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My favorite philosophers
Those interested in philosophy might wonder: Who are the favorite philosophers of someone (like me) who has a very low opinion of philosophy?
Well, ask no longer. Here are some of my favorite philosophers:
* Eliezer Yudkowsky (independent) only does philosophy because he needs to solve p... |
2c9a10c3-c21f-4558-bf10-bf47e1cc7b55 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Estimate Stability
I've been trying to get clear on something you might call "estimate stability." Steven Kaas recently posted my question to StackExchange, but we might as well post it here as well:
> I'm trying to reason about something I call "estimate stability," and I'm hoping you can tell me whether there’s som... |
70bc92f6-3f6e-4f86-9c62-e1db49301008 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | JFK was not assassinated: prior probability zero events
A lot of my work involves tweaking the utility or probability of an agent to make it believe - or act as if it believed - impossible or almost impossible events. But we have to be careful about this; an agent that believes the impossible may not be so different f... |
4f3ec825-72d0-4f77-a475-c6054d495d30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Boston Solstice 2022 Retrospective
Last night was our first full in-person Boston Secular Solstice since 2019, and I was back in the "music director and host" role while Taymon did most of the organizing. Overall I feel like it went pretty well! People had a good time, minimal technical issues, lots of good feedback a... |
31fbfccc-7054-4543-8132-0b7fa36b0ee9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Does davidad's uploading moonshot work?
[davidad](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/davidad) has a 10-min talk out on a proposal about which he says: “the first time I’ve seen a concrete plan that might work to get human uploads before 2040, maybe even faster, given unlimited funding”.
I think the talk is a good watch,... |
baf29bb3-a805-4354-bdca-7197f9a6420d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Understanding incomparability versus incommensurability in relation to RLHF
This post contains my initial thoughts after reading Prof. Ruth Chang's chapter "Value Incomparability and Incommensurability" in the Oxford Handbook of Value Theory. All text in quotation marks are copied directly from the chapter.
Two item... |
58c372da-ef7b-489c-b720-32895cc2e8e5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fertility Roundup #3
Previous Fertility Roundups: #1, #2.
The pace seems to be doing this about twice a year. The actual situation changes slowly, so presumably the pace of interesting new things should slow down over time from here.
DEMOGRAPHICS
This time around, a visualization. Where will the next 1,000 babies b... |
0c8ec1e2-e95a-4eff-ac11-3e8db4792d79 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Applying superintelligence without collusion
*Epistemic status: The core ideas seem robust and stable after long reflection and many discussions.*
Many researchers identify AI safety with control of a monolithic, superintelligent AI system, and if questioned about multicomponent alternatives, argue that multiple sup... |
83ca2f77-7400-4568-967d-740c7d9dda71 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | AGI-11 survey
The AGI-11 survey was a survey of 60 participants at the AGI-11 conference. In it:
* Nearly half of respondents believed that AGI would appear before 2030.
* Nearly 90% of respondents believed that AGI would appear before 2100.
* About 85% of respondents believed that AGI would be beneficial for humank... |
2c8aec57-4159-4544-8e4f-bc2e4424bccc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #94]: AI alignment as translation between humans and machines
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this sprea... |
4932be6f-2330-44c6-b378-38009f9dee47 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Simplifying Board Games
A few years ago I wrote about how I'd been playing a simplified version of Carcassonne with Lily. We stopped for a while, but recently we've played simplified versions of Ticket to Ride, Race for the Galaxy, Guillotine, and Settlers of Catan. My general approach here is to find a core piece of ... |
6ed8ee71-7fb2-45fa-a9aa-11d8116d45d5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What Selection Theorems Do We Expect/Want?
This post contains some of my current best guesses at aspects of agent type signatures for which I expect there are useful [Selection Theorems](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/G2Lne2Fi7Qra5Lbuf/selection-theorems-a-program-for-understanding-agents), as well as properties of s... |
12a57873-5c85-4eaa-af8d-c62c0fe20c37 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paradigm-building: The hierarchical question framework
The framework
Here, I will briefly introduce what I hope is a fundamental and potentially comprehensive set of questions that an AGI safety research agenda would need to answer correctly in order to be successful. In other words, I am claiming that a research agen... |
49106fb3-c63b-45d5-899a-3fdcb450a6fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is being sexy for your homies?
Epistemic status: Speculation. An unholy union of evo psych, introspection, random stuff I happen to observe & hear about, and thinking. Done on a highly charged topic. Caveat emptor!
----------------------------------------
Most of my life, whenever I'd felt sexually unwanted, I'd sta... |
6070bdfc-a090-4968-9a38-adbff4554179 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Updating My LW Commenting Policy
I thought about how to use comments better and get along with people better. I wrote notes about it:
* Write comments that would be appreciated by a new observer, who hasn’t read any of my previous stuff, hasn’t read the sequences, and only skimmed the post he’s commenting under.
* ... |
bde5513b-f481-4ece-a92f-030172710ac6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Training Better Rationalists?
I was recently listening to a podcast discussion that included two people that had been involved in military special operations units -- one in the Navy SEALs and one in the US Army Special Forces. I was struck by their extremely high level of training, dedication, commitment, and overall... |
b8afa021-2991-428c-ae5f-85ce5d030d55 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I love zebras
Go zebras! Bevtvany grkg erzbirq nf vg unf freirq vgf checbfr. |
7b6f16cc-b75e-4be2-95a4-87d3eab4ab51 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to pay for lives to be worth living
Slate Star Codex writes about a patient (or patient amalgam) who was suicidal, apparently for want of a few thousand dollars:
> …So what bothered me is that psychiatric hospitalization costs about $1,000 a day. Average length of stay for a guy like him might be three to five da... |
72ba6eff-80fc-43fd-b1d0-5ebb3de7aea1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Norms of Membership for Voluntary Groups
Epistemic Status: Idea Generation
One feature of the internet that we haven’t fully adapted to yet is that it’s trivial to create voluntary groups for discussion. It’s as easy as making a mailing list, group chat, Facebook group, Discord server, Slack channel, etc.
What we d... |
3e7e6d5d-a9ca-405f-9578-b240b7e341a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Manafold Markets is out of mana 🤭
Crossposted from Above The Fold.
The problem
As you may know, we’ve been busy raising our seed round in the last couple of weeks. One piece of feedback we often hear from investors is to be careful with how we issue our M$ (aka mana). We conducted an internal audit, which revealed ... |
906864ab-cdf6-479a-8c1e-ffef48de0531 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sticky threads?
It annoys me that there's no way to sticky a thread in the discussion section.
Therefore, I propose creating an LW wiki page called "Stickies", where sticky-worthy threads would be linked to. Would that be acceptable?
These are the threads I'm planning to add:
* the current Welcome to LW thread
... |
f3a60984-b907-44f5-9c66-0e6bd1e26f26 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why do some people try to make AGI?
Why do some people invest much of their energy trying to discover how to make AGI?
Who's trying to discover how to make AGI? Academic researchers and their students, academic institutions, small and large companies and startups with AI teams with some members working on speculativ... |
598c620e-1310-426b-b8df-22038279c3a7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Reply to Jebari and Lundborg on Artificial Superintelligence
Jebari and Lundborg have recently published an article entitled [*Artificial superintelligence and its limits: why AlphaZero cannot become a general agent*](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00146-020-01070-3). It focuses on the thorny issue of agen... |
aa8227f6-6ad6-4234-9458-bac582998997 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Benefits/Risks of Scott Aaronson's Orthodox/Reform Framing for AI Alignment
Scott Aaronson makes the argument that an Orthodox vs Reform analogy works for AI Alignment. I don't think I've really heard it framed this way before. He gives his takes on the beliefs of each group and there's a lot of discussion in the comm... |
5bf1b67e-56f8-43ea-9877-3a3152ddc16e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Learning Exploration Policies for Navigation
1 Introduction
---------------
Imagine your first day at a new workplace. If you are like most people, the first task you set for yourself is to become familiar with the office so that the next day when you have to attend meetings and perform tasks, you can navigate effi... |
90e6e192-0ea1-426f-ba58-57432aaebb1a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fake Deeply
A short story about deception and generative AI. (October 2023, 4250 words) |
ce160440-c13e-459a-b0f8-bca07298e34b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Certifiable Robustness to Adversarial State Uncertainty in Deep Reinforcement Learning
I Introduction
---------------
Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL)algorithms have achieved impressive success on robotic manipulation [Gu\_2017] and robot navigation in pedestrian crowds [fan2019getting, Everett\_2018].
Many of thes... |
b5b67507-2ac9-4da9-af83-729c2f6a702e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | For what X would you be indifferent between living X days, but forgetting your day at the end of everyday, or living 10 days? (terminally)
terminally meaning in and of itself, as oppose to instrumentally meaning as a mean to other ends |
0321fb2c-126d-4732-806f-4ec4c4a3248a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meaning and Moral Foundations Theory
(cross-posted from https://www.michaelpj.com/blog/2018/04/07/meaning-and-mft.html)
Robin Hanson writes (some time ago, but it's a classic):
> So there is a bit of a tension here between the meaning that crusaders choose for themselves and the happiness they try give to others. Th... |
8379b4e4-2567-4e0e-91dc-3bbed57c2b1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Politics Filtering and Higher Standard Discussions
Does anybody have suggestions of a method to hold a risky political discussion while excluding mindkilled dialogue and naively cynical accusations? I know that Moldbug uses a deliberately obscure writing style as a kind of barrier to entry, but that only works for th... |
eb706008-c505-47c8-81f3-3df51ee60ebe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | She Blinded Me With Science
Scrutinize claims of scientific fact in support of opinion journalism.
Even with honest intent, it's difficult to apply science correctly, and it's rare that dishonest uses are punished. Citing a scientific result gives an easy patina of authority, which is rarely scratched by a casual rea... |
f94d2f6e-f43b-4af5-8382-3c0608aec800 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Existential Risk Reduction Career Network
Interested in donating to existential risk reduction efforts? Would you like to exchange career information with like-minded others? Then you should consider the Existential Risk Reduction Career Network! ("X Risk Network" for those short on time.) From the front page of the w... |
b1526e93-687d-4730-8738-d2dc0ddbc6d6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What specific dangers arise when asking GPT-N to write an Alignment Forum post?
Last year Stuart Armstrong [announced a contest](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/cSzaxcmeYW6z7cgtc/contest-usd1-000-for-good-questions-to-ask-to-an-oracle-ai) to come up with the best questions to ask an Oracle AI. Wei Dai [wrote](htt... |
0fce4546-ad9c-47e9-92d8-c24ee8069478 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "It's Okay", Instructions, Focusing, Experiencing and Frames
Epistemic Status: Interpreting someone else's work will always be speculative
Valentine has described his experience of a Kenshō (or moment of understanding) from which he took away a lesson that could roughly be summarised by "It's okay". I've read that po... |
86926479-0cca-4637-8535-2bd8d9d52e3e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Less Wrong IRC Meetup
Less Wrong will be having a meetup on Saturday at 7pm UTC (convert to other time zones), in the #lesswrong IRC channel on Freenode. If all goes well, this will be a recurring event. If you haven't used IRC before, Mibbit provides a web-based client you can use.
We may do some Paranoid Debating. ... |
2d8a9b45-4248-4d3c-b2df-ea72b5d1883b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Goal-Directedness and Behavior, Redux
Beyond past confusions
Over the last year, I wrote and thought many confused and confusing ideas on the relationship between goal-directedness of behavior. In the linked post for example, I defended a deconfusion of goal-directdness solely in terms of behavior; in doing so, I migh... |
f440d250-3559-4468-847d-4fa754edcb83 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rational Health Optimization
Possibly Related To: Diseased Thinking, Thou Art Godshatter
There are 8760 hours in a typical year. A typical 30-year old will spend about 2900 of those hours sleeping, around 160 of them impaired or incapacitated by illness and will experience perhaps 2000 hours of peak mental function.... |
6b2ef59b-18bf-46f4-b7e8-148f9ba69693 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The continued misuse of the Prisoner's Dilemma
Related to: The True Prisoner's Dilemma, Newcomb's Problem and Regret of Rationality
In The True Prisoner's Dilemma, Eliezer Yudkowsky pointed out a critical problem with the way the Prisoner's Dilemma is taught: the distinction between utility and avoided-jail-time is n... |
0424d3ad-94c4-4475-8c5c-438f03aaa843 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Deep Learning 8: Unsupervised learning and generative models
thank you for coming and I'm shakir and
really excited to talk to you today
about unsupervised learning and
generative model so I wanted to maybe
just start with a quick question to all
of you few people want to shout out
maybe the reasons they think
unsuper... |
05da5104-0753-49e6-b357-5e85b894ebeb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | recognition
recognition
-----------
(spoilers for episode 8 of [girls' last tour](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Girls'_Last_Tour#Anime))
it feels to me like there is special about recognition by other persons. i will call it "recognition" — the fact of having one's experience be percieved by other persons, ... |
09274194-014e-49a5-83c6-09c2f61ce219 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Bit (of data)
A bit of data (not to be confused with a [https://arbital.com/p/shannon](https://arbital.com/p/shannon), an [abstract bit](https://arbital.com/p/3y3), or a [bit of evidence](https://arbital.com/p/evidence_bit)) is the amount of data required to single out one message from a set of two. If you want to sin... |
bd40d976-1d85-4223-b171-f465a1930aff | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3789
A putative new idea for AI control; index here . This post starts with a very simple and retrospectively obvious observation: If we want an AI to give us an estimation of expected utility, it needs to be motivated to give us that estimation. Once we have that in mind, and remember that any extra motivatio... |
47192d15-825e-43ab-855b-fd4045a2c49c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Simulation of Automation economics?
Looks like even respected people disagree about the effects of automation of most jobs on prices, ability to earn and trade, ect. Is there a game which I could play to gain intuitions about it? A game where there are some things and services people need to get to survive, some res... |
a77912c0-5a5a-4134-b6ee-85e850f0d488 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci Evaluation and Ruleset
This is a followup to the D&D.Sci post I made a week ago; if you haven’t already read it, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
Here is the web interactive I built to let you test your solution; below is a complete explanation of the rules used to generate the dataset. You’ll p... |
edacb307-4ede-4929-83a1-56a0c24be2ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is it possible to find venture capital for AI research org with strong safety focus?
I wrote here a while back with this throwaway asking for help: AI researchers from Russia looking for a new home.
We still have a few options, but I wonder if it's possible in the current climate to find funding for a startup doing fu... |
49c0992b-ac00-437c-b9c3-f45e40e36fe4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monthly Roundup #29: April 2025
In Monthly Roundup #28 I made clear I intend to leave the Trump administration out of my monthly roundups, for both better and worse, outside of my focus areas. Again, this does not mean I don’t have a lot to say or that those questions don’t matter. It means you should not rely on me a... |
01e71108-cc16-4a21-81a1-148a8f9af10c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Arbitrage of prediction markets
I've noticed something very curious on Intrade markets for 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee - Ron Paul gets 3.5% of getting a nomination - a value that's clearly (and spare me EMH here) wishful thinking of Ron Paul supporters more than any genuine estimate.
And this brings me to a ... |
eb4124a8-355b-444a-84e1-ca48ccd2ffe2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Alignment as Translation
[Technology Changes Constraints](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/xEFeCwk3pdYdeG2rL/p/JJv8jmLYzYzdYkS3c) argues that economic constraints are usually modular with respect to technology changes - so for reasoning about technology changes, it’s useful to cast them in terms of economic constraints. Tw... |
dc98b7cb-b6c8-43cc-8e61-0713bed936c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Any recommendation for reading material for pre-school children [3-4 yr]?
Hi all, I have a 3 yr old niece who recently really got into reading stories, is there any recommendation for good children stories that you guys would recommend?
I had the usual fairy tales and Disney stuff, just wondering if there is somethin... |
18fdfc1a-d65c-4a5d-9529-397d8faf49a5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is the Covid-19 crisis a good time for x-risk outreach?
With what's happening with the coronavirus, I'd think that people would be particularly receptive to the ideas that:
1) We need to be prepared for long term risks.
2) Things with exponential growth are super scary.
3) We should trust the professionals who pred... |
ff60b606-832a-47a2-b030-4db343f76f20 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What psychology studies are most important to the rationalist worldview?
The importance of cognitive psychology, neuroscience, and evolutionary psychology to rationalist projects are no secret. The sequences begin with an introduction to cognitive biases and heuristics for example. I am an amateur researcher of theo... |
400f2a30-15bd-4790-8bf7-1c3ffdabd5ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Berkeley: Hypothetical Apostasy
Discussion article for the meetup : Berkeley: Hypothetical Apostasy
WHEN: 12 June 2013 07:30:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: Berkeley, CA
Dear all, there will be a meetup at Zendo tonight. I'd like to try an exercise called Hypothetical Apostasy that was devised by Nick Bostrom:
> Imag... |
28dc6069-a776-4e83-beb4-41071f6a28cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | FMT: a great opportunity for (soon-to-be) parents
Executive summary
Fecal Microbiota Transplant (FMT) is a procedure that involves transferring the stool of healthy people to the guts of unhealthy people. The bacteria in the healthy person’s stool helps to rebalance the unhealthy person’s dysbiotic (imbalanced) gut mi... |
a2d98894-6141-4d42-a455-09161f11c16b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mechanistic Interpretability Quickstart Guide
This was written as a guide for Apart Research's Mechanistic Interpretability Hackathon as a compressed version of my getting started post. The spirit is "how to speedrun your way to maybe doing something useful in mechanistic interpretability in a weekend", but hopefully ... |
ef28ce51-7b0f-4a61-ae5d-2469a7647e70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against Student Debt Cancellation From All Sides of the Political Compass
A stance against student debt cancellation doesn’t rely on the assumptions of any single ideology. Strong cases against student debt cancellation can be made based on the fundamental values of any section of the political compass. In no particul... |
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