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88a7ce5c-8e22-47ac-88a6-cba0ffde3bdd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reality Testing
In the recent weeks since Biden’s disastrous debate performance, pundits have theatrically expressed surprise at his apparent cognitive decline, despite years of clear and available evidence in the form of video clips, detailed reports, and fumbled public appearances.
This is far from the first pop... |
40588708-3420-4f95-91b7-7cc09743bdca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 2/24/22: The Next War
Russia has invaded Ukraine with the stated goal of 'demilitarization and denazification.'
On its face, this has nothing to do with Covid. The invasion may reflect a perception, either on the part of Putin or otherwise, from our Covid-19 response or otherwise, that the West has shown itself... |
406e7974-4364-4d56-b396-abec0a526d87 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reverse Auctions for Group Decision-Making
I recently faced a dilemma with a group of friends in which auction theory provided a nice solution to ensure everyone's satisfaction. Due to its elegance and potential application to similar coordination problems, I detail the solution below as well as some intuition for why... |
fa486fef-611e-4628-a1b9-6e0b772020fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meta AI announces Cicero: Human-Level Diplomacy play (with dialogue)
Abstract
Despite much progress in training AI systems to imitate human language, building agents that use language to communicate intentionally with humans in interactive environments remains a major challenge. We introduce Cicero, the first AI agent... |
a25043ce-1791-4632-aa19-98bcff222ea7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Philosophical Glossary of AI
> It is hard to know what to make of claims like “LLMs are intelligent”, “we have reached AGI”, or “AI’s outputs are biased” without a grasp of the definitions of the terms ‘intelligent’, ‘AGI’, and ‘bias’. And yet, many do just this. Interdisciplinary debate would be easier and more f... |
88ee910b-672a-4888-ac2d-858508923f42 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Medical Mystery: Thyroid Hormones, Chronic Fatigue and Fibromyalgia
Summary:
* Chronic Fatigue and Fibromyalgia look very like Hypothyroidism.
* Thyroid Patients aren't happy with either the diagnosis or treatment of Hypothyroidism.
* It is possible that lots of FMS/CFS cases are 'something wrong with the thyroi... |
69ff4d96-d59e-4ce1-81c8-507de3359a6a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | my current outlook on AI risk mitigation
*(thanks to [Linda Linsefors](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/linda-linsefors), [Artaxerxes](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/artaxerxes), and [jono](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/lw-user0246) for their feedback on drafts of this post.)*
my current outlook on AI risk mitigat... |
f5b5a871-846d-4a38-9c28-06cf7711075d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Forecasting Transformative AI: What Kind of AI?
*Audio version available [at Cold Takes](https://www.cold-takes.com/transformative-ai-timelines-part-1-of-4-what-kind-of-ai/) (or search Stitcher, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. for "Cold Takes Audio")*
[. Consider this post as framing why physics and its frameworks can be good for building a science of AI.
Introduction
In Position: Is machine learnin... |
b9bc0e91-db5d-47b6-add3-e29b56b88e87 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Talking to yourself: A useful thinking tool that seems understudied and underdiscussed
I have returned from a particularly fruitful Google search, with unexpected results.
My question was simple. I was pretty sure that talking to myself aloud makes me temporarily better at solving problems that need a lot of working ... |
2fe82fd3-3015-4cd2-8ef0-497b7cffbbe4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Arguments for God
This post is about God, but of course, it isn't really about God, but about a particular pattern in general.
We're pretty much all in agreement that God doesn't exist.
This is correct or at least let's say it is for the purposes of this post. However, this also poses a trap.
Suppose there are ... |
8daf5962-8c64-47e1-8839-1ec2af825368 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Student competition for drafting a treaty on moratorium of large-scale AI capabilities R&D
Campaign for AI safety has announced a competition for the drafting of an international treaty on moratorium of large-scale AI capabilities research and development.
The competition is open to all students of law, philosophy, a... |
d7abc8d7-ce5d-4fbe-b53a-e39599b83343 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Attempt at Logical Uncertainty
At the recent Tel Aviv meetup, after a discussion of the open problems in the field of FAI, we reached the conclusion that the problem of logical uncertainty is one of the most major of the problems open today. In this post I will try to give a few insights I had on this problem, whic... |
94a6a33a-b17c-4bce-a405-8811003633fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A strong mind continues its trajectory of creativity
[Metadata: crossposted from https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2023/01/a-strong-mind-continues-its-trajectory.html. First completed January 29, 2023.]
A very strong mind is produced by a trajectory of creativity. A trajectory of creativity that produces a very strong mind... |
165fd3b1-c7b0-4727-bd09-6712c4716a7c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | New report: “Loudness: On priors over preference relations”
[](https://intelligence.org/files/LoudnessPriors.pdf)Today we release the first technical report from our [May 2014 workshop](http://intelligence.org/workshops/... |
33d7e8aa-7fb9-4513-92e1-c93915588aa3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Most capable publicly available agents?
Looking to do a little compare and contrast. |
dbdb0733-365a-48b1-81f7-f291cd833a81 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Representation Learning: A Review and New Perspectives
1 Introduction
---------------
The performance of machine learning methods is heavily dependent on the
choice of data representation (or features) on which they are applied. For
that reason, much of the actual effort in deploying machine learning
algorithms goe... |
c36ac6b6-0f1a-4d32-86e1-5f8b634c2dda | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | MLU: New Blog!
I'm in the process of moving mindlevelup from Wordpress to a new static site hosted by Netlify. I like this because now I have more control over scripts and the visuals. It also finally puts into place my goal of having a place to have short/longform posts.
The plan is to slowly update posts and increm... |
4c1e7904-2eee-4d79-a991-4624309f4ce0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What evidence will tell us about the new strain? How are you updating?
I didn't get into this question in the weekly post. The answer does not seem obvious to me.
Eventually, it will be obvious either way. Either the strain will spread rapidly across many locations, or it won't. But we would like to get the informati... |
349ce1b3-f200-426f-b618-70feda385e6f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Spending on Ourselves
The Effective Altruism community has encouraged a range of different approaches to doing good over time. Initially there was more focus on frugality as a way to increase how much you could donate, which was mostly supplanted by emphasis on earning more. In late 2015 this started to shift towards ... |
6da39956-7c3d-4344-9705-02cf3b7e94d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A poem titled 'Tick Tock'.
Inspired by a collective intelligence project that I've been working on in the GOFAI space for over a decade. Hoping to share more at less online if I can afford to make it.
1st prediction:
My second prediction will be true.
2nd prediction:
My first prediction was false.
42nd pre... |
f00c07f4-0c73-40c5-ab80-710c24a2dd41 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Emergent scaling effects on the functional hierarchies within LLMs
I have been poking around with LLMs, and I found some results that seem broadly interesting
Summary
Introduction: Large language models (LLM) are usually structured as repeated transformer layers of the same size. However, this architecture is often ... |
e0f49f62-7d0f-4ed6-962f-b60ebc2c63fe | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is AI safety?
"AI safety" refers to efforts to prevent artificial intelligence from causing harm. This site focuses on existential disasters in which powerful future AI systems pursue goals in conflict with humanity’s values, because these systems may end up taking control of the world or even driving humanity ex... |
89d38151-e68c-48c8-aa96-dbcae6675969 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I expect successful (narrow) alignment
Summary
I believe that advanced AI systems will likely be aligned with the goals of their human operators, at least in a narrow sense. I’ll give three main reasons for this:
1. The transition to AI may happen in a way that does not give rise to the alignment problem as it’s... |
aaaea6f6-2e96-4c56-ba98-3675d94716aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The two-layer model of human values, and problems with synthesizing preferences
I have been thinking about Stuart Armstrong's preference synthesis research agenda, and have long had the feeling that there's something off about the way that it is currently framed. In the post I try to describe why. I start by describin... |
56a6f96d-72d7-4273-8b53-c0a006faaf8d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Counterfactual Mugging v. Subjective Probability
This has been in my drafts folder for ages, but in light of Eliezer's post yesterday, I thought I'd see if I could get some comment on it:
A couple weeks ago, Vladimir Nesov stirred up the biggest hornet's nest I've ever seen on LW by introducing us to the Counterfa... |
e2d84db4-13d4-4e66-aba7-d0e0b66cb5e2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Unifying Bargaining Notions (2/2)
Alright, time for the payoff, unifying everything discussed in the [previous post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rYDas2DDGGDRc8gGB/unifying-bargaining-notions-1-2). This post is a lot more mathematically dense, you might want to digest it in more than one sitting.
**Imaginary Pr... |
43f7fbc6-9dc4-47e2-a5c3-4f412b78b441 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Does most of your impact come from what you do soon?
Over the last couple months I’ve noticed myself flipping back and forth between two mindsets: “I should try to be useful soon” and “I should build skills so that I am more useful in 5+ years.” I’ve compiled arguments for each view in this post. Note that a lot of th... |
dcb8efc5-e64f-45b1-a038-8d1e279817fb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Language models are 0-shot interpreters
---
Table of Contents* [Overview](#overview)
* [0-shot, few-shot, and meta-learning](#0-shot-few-shot-and-meta-learning)
+ [0-shot can outperform few-shot](#0-shot-can-outperform-few-shot)
* [Measuring prompt helpfulness](#measuring-prompt-helpfulness)
+ [Decibels of evidence... |
3e2b6df5-c02b-4c8f-88f0-fe2daf8f1e9c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Land with no aunties
Posted a piece on how removing informal social control (the “auntie layer”) affects a city’s memetic landscape, using SF as case study. Interested in rationalist critiques: Are such regulators net-positive or pareto-inefficient? |
cd82fa2c-7faa-4b52-9418-3a4c4de95d0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Comprehension Curve
Tl;Dr: You might comprehend and learn more quickly by slowing down your reading, rather than by speeding it up. This post is mainly about laying down some terminology that I think is conceptually clarifying in thinking about learning, comprehension and reading speed.
Speed Reading
According t... |
80351e35-ec65-4646-b224-fac2c7fa22dc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Self-improvement without self-modification
This is just a short note to point out that AIs can self-improve without having to self-modify. So locking down an agent from self-modification is not an effective safety measure.
How could AIs do that? The easiest and the most trivial is to create a subagent, and transfer ... |
95b1f461-3aaa-4da0-8f9b-c951cd4b2356 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 1. What's the problem & Why work on it now?
1.1 Post summary / Table of contents
====================================
This is the first of a [series of blog posts on the technical safety problem for hypothetical future brain-like Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) systems](https://... |
35f863dc-96dd-4e9b-bcf8-fe2e120197ba | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Regular Moscow Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Regular Moscow Meetup
WHEN: 17 August 2014 02:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Russia, Moscow, ulitsa L'va Tolstogo 16
Here's our plan for the next time:
* exercise on searching cognitive biases in texts
* a talk on cognitive errors for the practical case ... |
67dd861e-d10d-4a00-b562-c92e3ecfd66f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Answering some questions about EA
A teacher in Vienna recently wrote to say that they had assigned an article about us as part of a Social Issues class, and asked whether I would be up for answering questions. The students asked me their questions via video snippets, and here are my answers:
Gergo: When was the first ... |
628cb338-b9b3-4306-a492-e8050d5cdc52 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Beware popular discussions of AI "sentience"
*Summary:*I apply some philosophy of mind to some common mistakes people make about (possible) AI minds. In our current situation (where we are very ignorant of the relationships between the following things), take care to talk about problem-solving ability, goal-orientedne... |
0e7dd877-60c7-4a26-9264-aa079bf58aaa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Vancouver Open Discussion
Discussion article for the meetup : Vancouver Open Discussion
WHEN: 03 August 2013 02:34:17AM (-0700)
WHERE: 2505 W Broadway, Vancouver, BC
We're having our usual meetup on Saturday. We're looking to expand the breadth of our meetup, so we'll be fielding suggestions and discussion... |
3c9a7d8d-ebee-4f6c-9a98-fa1510db4872 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Events in Daily?
I'm in the process of refactoring how we handle the default posts view. The core goal was to implement some anti-spam features into it. But it highlighted some oddness in how we're currently filtering things.
I wanted to check how this might effect people on GreaterWrong, and people who use the Daily... |
c045eb98-01fa-4254-8721-2d8bb8e059ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Probabilistic self-defeat arguments
Alvin Plantinga‘s ‘evolutionary argument against naturalism‘ (EAAN) goes like this:
1. If humans were created by natural selection, and also not under the guidance of a creator (‘naturalism’), then (for various reasons he gives) the probability that their beliefs are accurate is l... |
02494b5a-70a3-403f-9fad-f51fca020b3d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Inference from a Mathematical Description of an Existing Alignment Research: a proposal for an outer alignment research program
**Update:** *I'm pretty sure that the universal prior being malign defeats this proposal (see* [*this comment*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rnzpYKWmNWEW5PQyq/inference-from-a-mathematical... |
37945a25-e1dd-4f44-a684-c09e969a7ee3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quantilizer ≡ Optimizer with a Bounded Amount of Output
(Crossposted from my blog)
In 2015 MIRI proposed quantilizers as a decision theory criterion that an AI may use that allows it strive towards a goal while not optimizing too hard at the goal, so that if a superintelligent were a quantilizer there's a smaller cha... |
6dc0c7eb-4016-48e5-9c24-16bc0bdd0724 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Give the model a model-builder
(Thanks to Evan Hubinger for suggesting this problem and for comments on these ideas. Feedback is very welcome.)
The Setup
Suppose we have a prior pgood(model) that we think is non-deceptive, such that we can sample from this prior and get good models that are inner-aligned.
These mod... |
d4c61c2c-420d-4ca4-9e57-edf120f0bfca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayesianism (Subjective or Objective)
I'm reading a paper called 'Reasonable Doubt and Presumtion of Innocence: The Case of the Bayesian Juror' for a Physics/Policy course I'm taking, and am a bit confused by something in it. Note here that I'm quite new to Bayesianism and do not claim to understand in entirity how it... |
c8cb7c2e-c312-4193-9c01-9f2ed2189c62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | CCing Mailing Lists on External Communication
In my current work, and at various previous companies, I've done a lot of coordination with external groups. We generally use email for this: it's very standard and works well enough.
One place where it doesn't work very well, though, is making it possible for others work... |
b45ea570-cd54-4ddb-bfc6-1efc9af1ed2b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Graphical World Models, Counterfactuals, and Machine Learning Agents
This is the second post in a sequence. For the introduction post, see here.
Graphical World Models
A world model is a mathematical model of a particular world. This can be our real world, or an imaginary world. To make a mathematical model into a m... |
2451f83a-b04c-4861-b3ec-674fbe141606 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Ann Arbor meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Ann Arbor meetup
WHEN: 22 August 2015 02:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Pizza House, 618 Church Street, Ann Arbor, Mich. 48104
Our bi-monthly discussion group. There is no minimum to attend in terms of age, reading history, karma, or otherwise. If you can read t... |
9bb36d5f-761b-4298-b3e7-92652dc11db2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An answer to a possible objection to cash-transfer charities
This is an answer to a possible objection to cash-transfer charities like GiveDirectly. I remember reading about this on LessWrong a while ago, but I can't find the discussion now. I was planning on asking about this on an Open Thread, but I got curious, did... |
11d88cac-8d6b-4f0c-a1a4-88fd002c11e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 500 Million, But Not A Single One More - The Animation
This video is an animation of 500 Million, But Not A Single One More, by @jai
Some notes for the curious about the cult of Sopona, the god of Smallpox of the Yoruba people
When I was getting feedback on the storyboard from Jai, he mentioned that there is an a... |
41193ec8-63b7-493c-b7b9-bf531c9a5a7d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | MIRI Donation Collaboration Station Redux: The Final Push (IMPORTANT)
As you likely already know, there is a one-day only fundraiser for MIRI going on tonight. 1 hour left, or less on the clock.
Donation page is HERE
And, "$250K in Microsoft in-kind giving is available for the organization which gets the most unique... |
3eb39dd7-0ec4-47bf-873f-1093ba13509b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] "Doing being rational: polymerase chain reaction" by David Chapman
This is a link post for:
* Doing being rational: polymerase chain reaction | Meaningness
I'm not going to quote the content at the link itself. [Should I?]
David Chapman – the author of the linked post – claims that "meta-rational" methods a... |
440d9b83-6fab-4a8b-aa83-72e6a2ebcfe2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | An empirical analysis of compute-optimal large language model training
In the last few years, a focus in language modelling has been on improving performance through increasing the number of parameters in transformer-based models. This approach has led to impressive results and state-of-the-art performance across many... |
c1e96bc7-35a7-42b0-b5ef-4c0f2a927862 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Building awareness habits (cognitive)
Something I struggle with (probably largely due to ADHD) is building habits/patterns of being aware of things I want to notice/practice cognitively.
For example, I find myself easily becoming somewhat thoughtless in social situations, in that I do not stop to observe, think, and ... |
f90bd6eb-1f6a-4d2a-b0a0-afffda509a4b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #162]: Foundation models: a paradigm shift within AI
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter.... |
caf0b363-7e3d-4500-b659-ea26913b50fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Personal Notes On Productivity (A categorization of various resources)
For each topic, I’ve curated a few links that I’ve found to be pretty high quality.
* Meta:(Epiphany Addiction, Reversing Advice, Excellence Porn)
* @Learning:
* Success People: (Mastery),(ChoosingTopics: Osci,PG)
* Thinking: (Ikigai, Stoici... |
dc4403d4-e9ba-4272-95ec-4b3585171abd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly LW Meetups
This summary was posted to LW Main on August 5th. The following week's summary is here.
New meetups (or meetups with a hiatus of more than a year) are happening in:
* Bay City Meetup: 19 August 2016 01:25PM
Irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups are taking place in:
* European Community Weeke... |
65700311-53e5-41ba-a3ff-4089b9ceb624 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Task decomposition for scalable oversight (AGISF Distillation)
AGISF Week 4 - Task decomposition for scalable oversight
*This text is an adapted excerpt from the task decomposition for scalable oversight section of the AGISF 2023 course, held at ENS Ulm in Paris on March 16, 2023. **Its purpose is to provide a concis... |
13619ab1-fb6f-4e0d-b811-c1ff08fce3a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Technical implication: My worst enemy is an instance of my self."
I think this one needs more discussion, it looks like a really valuable and interesting train of thought.
In "You'll be who you care about," Stuart Armstrong wrote -
> Instead of wondering whether we should be selfish towards our future selves, let's... |
660026e9-4386-4824-9cb8-ff7b5b94fafb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What do you mean with ‘alignment is solvable in principle’?
Typically, I saw researchers make this claim confidently in one sentence. Sometimes, it's backed by a loose analogy. [1]
This claim is cruxy. If alignment is not solvable, then the alignment community is not viable. But little is written that disambiguates a... |
f5b1269e-7667-4de9-83ed-9e950cdb1602 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An optimality result for modal UDT
Yesterday, I gave a definition of "decision theory" and "fair decision problem" in the context of provability logic, and gave a formal version of drnickbone's argument that no decision theory can perform optimally on every "fair" decision problem. Today, I prove that for any provably... |
8ea68894-e123-4f40-a5c0-663ce9c51ea8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | $1000 bounty for OpenAI to show whether GPT3 was "deliberately" pretending to be stupider than it is
Twitter thread by Eliezer Yudkowsky, with the bounty in bold:
> So I don't want to sound alarms prematurely, here, but we could possibly be looking at the first case of an AI pretending to be stupider than it is. In ... |
77c06e3d-1149-45be-9cfa-a9a9749c25b0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Non-manipulative oracles
Benja had a post about trying to get predictors to not manipulate you. It involved a predictor that could predict tennis matches, but where the prediction could also manipulate the impact of those matches.
To solve this, Benja imagined the actions of a hypothetical CDT reasoning agent locate... |
e9539b95-16a8-42a0-b420-7366de13e8af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What EY and LessWrong meant when (fill in the blank) found them.
Somewhere I in the last year I read a long post from years ago saying what a relief it was to them when they found this place. As I recall this was a middle-aged programmer. Can anyone point me to that post? Thanks. |
00ebb2c3-134c-4256-8cba-b34a5524a2cd | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "tl;dr: The marginal benefits of learning a skill shouldn't be judged heavily on the performance of people who have had it for a long time. People are unfortunately susceptible to these poor judgments via the representativeness heuristic.
Warn and beware of the following kludgy argument, which I hear often and have to ... |
3ecf68e3-1498-4c1f-ad9f-e6154e1fd608 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Geoffrey Miller on Effective Altruism and Rationality
The first part of an extensive interview with Dr. Geoffrey Miller.
Topics include:
1. Why we should send a hit squad to Russia.
2. How to make effective altruism sexy.
3. Why he doesn't eat anchovies. |
3f8b04a6-e591-4481-a0f5-4417bea95b5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reinterpreting "AI and Compute"
Some arguments saying that the recent evidence about the speed at which compute has been increasing and has been responsible for rapid progress in machine learning, might mean that we should be less worried about short timelines, not more.
> [...] Overall, it seems pretty common to int... |
e8bc617a-8ab4-4f23-84ef-1967c2d7bef3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Has anyone written stories happening in Hanson's em world?
EtA: Robin Hanson complains that while most hard sci-fi may get the hard tech right, they often get the economics wrong. I'm interested in stories that get both right. |
b0e2b6b6-cd55-4e0d-8e8c-e457ee49e8d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Before rationality- a snapshot
This post is roughly analogous to the “before” photos that you see people use to demonstrate the effects of dieting, except I want to use it a sort of time capsule to compare my conception of myself as a thinker now to that conception in [some] years time, when I am further along in my s... |
0fceab61-429a-45b3-b0ea-fa53191434a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Denver Area LW February Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Denver Area LW February Meetup
WHEN: 07 February 2017 07:00:00AM (-0700)
WHERE: 4955 South Ulster Street #103, Denver, CO
Join us to socialize and discuss Rationalist topics! We usually have semi-separate groups divided by topic. Individual... |
64c25ab4-c460-4df3-a023-e4dd87efaf82 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Audio from Eliezer's talk at the Oxford Transhumanists
In January we hosted Eliezer at an Oxford Transhumanists meeting. He spoke about why AI is such an incredibly consequential consideration, over and above other technologies. This will not be new material for regular lesswrong readers. The recordings from Eliezer's... |
9a04f5e0-f374-448d-919b-a99690b2bfbc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | My take on What We Owe the Future
*Cross-posted from [Foxy Scout](https://www.foxy-scout.com/wwotf-review/)*
Overview
========
[What We Owe The Future](https://whatweowethefuture.com/) (WWOTF) by Will MacAskill has recently been released with [much fanfare](https://whatweowethefuture.com/press/). While I strongly ... |
2780853a-ebfc-4932-bd26-75c217c90524 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Variation on conformity experiment
A new variation on the Asch conformity experiment was recently published. The experiment was performed in Japan and used polarizing glasses to show different lines to different people in the same room, so that the subjects had to disagree with others they actually knew, and who genui... |
7ef40f04-cbdc-4eac-a764-1ce3b0ce91eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preserving Practical Science (Phronesis)
This is my first commentary on the previous Saint Louis Junto Meeting whose notes are here. Since a meetup can cover diverse topics, I have decided that I will not include running commentary in the meeting notes, and instead reflect upon a few of the discussions in subsequent p... |
66830013-03af-4813-963c-47bf5d244430 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can you learn (music) efficiently by grinding?
Crossposted from my Substack.
You don't need to watch the videos to understand what I learned today; you can grok it from reading the text.
I'd like to make one more post in this series, to determine whether a person can use this grinding strategy to correctly estimate ... |
3086eb23-9281-4023-abf6-3833f30b3c49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anki deck for Cognitive Science in One Lesson
I've made a non-comprehensive Anki deck (shared as "Cognitive Science in One Lesson Deck") for Lukeprog's Cognitive Science in One Lesson (a summary of Bermudez's Cognitive Science textbook). I focused on the parts about the brain. Please point out errors or post revised v... |
07664f0a-5698-4506-8de6-4efc052cd7fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What does social psychology tell us about getting consistent evaluations out of groups?
Suppose we have different groups repeatedly making the same kind of decision (ex: awards in a civil lawsuit). We would like their decisions to be consistent and predictable, and are even willing to trade some accuracy to do so.
So... |
7788082b-11ad-4157-afee-a631a1de2550 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 93: Roles, Pt 4
Harry had walked into the Great Hall, looked around only once, grabbed enough calories to sustain himself, walked out, put on his Cloak again and found a small random corner in which to eat. Seeing the students at their tables -
Feeling revulsion when you look at other humans is not a good sig... |
62913507-95ba-418c-9dd9-135284be0068 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LessWrong as place for scientifically literate advice
Disclaimer and abstract: English is not my native language, so please notify me if you see grammatical or stylistic mistakes. This posting is mainly an account of my thoughts. It is highly informal and contains almost no advice but asks for it. I am relatively new ... |
3f95dba3-5f12-4ea5-8152-e26cae51e14d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Escape from Alderaan I
This is Part 4 of a Star Wars fanfiction I began writing 6 months ago. The order you read it in is very important. Start from the beginning for the best experience and to avoid spoilers.
----------------------------------------
Obi-Wan Kenobi bought passage from a scumbag with a confusing name... |
ce5dc8b6-67fd-4703-ad8d-67b5a9615953 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Properties of current AIs and some predictions of the evolution of AI from the perspective of scale-free theories of agency and regulative development
In this essay, I try to convey a set of related ideas that emerged in my mind upon reading the following papers:
* "Dream of Being: Solving AI Alignment Problems with... |
009bfaca-957b-48a2-8aa6-e437b2e77871 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is Ra?
Sarah Constantine coined Ra in this blog post and it has become a frequently referenced concept within the Rational-sphere. However, I don't feel she provided a clear definition. How would you define it? |
251fabcd-0c56-4888-a168-e6b513be46f0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Extremely Counterfactual Mugging or: the gist of Transparent Newcomb
>
> Omega will either award you $1000 or ask you to pay him $100. He will award you $1000 if he predicts you would pay him if he asked. He will ask you to pay him $100 if he predicts you wouldn't pay him if he asked.
>
>
> Omega asks you to pay h... |
6a6f2c67-c7ff-42ab-b24e-fc4af0b54ed4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Bing Just Upgraded YouTube (and changed the internet forever)
Bing just upgraded YouTube and changed
the internet forever and I'm going to
show you exactly how I know that
statement sounds crazy especially about
something called Bing but let me prove
it to you you can now open up any
YouTube video and click on the Bin... |
c1e67f5b-61bf-43dd-b0dc-5d25792d0cf5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A transparency and interpretability tech tree
*Thanks to Chris Olah, Neel Nanda, Kate Woolverton, Richard Ngo, Buck Shlegeris, Daniel Kokotajlo, Kyle McDonell, Laria Reynolds, Eliezer Yudkowksy, Mark Xu, and James Lucassen for useful comments, conversations, and feedback that informed this post.*
The more I have tho... |
f2d82f7e-8591-47d2-9853-221e6ebddf53 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Possible Paths to Artificial General Intelligence
[Music]
all right thank you very much everyone
so I'm Josh and the other panels are
already introduced I'm going to start
off with just very brief introductory
remarks and then we're each gonna give
short opening statements I'm not sure
how much debate is gonna because... |
8794fb8e-fc66-4a96-a6b0-8b75ecbf9e26 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Meta] Server Slow
Is it just me or has the server being unusually slow the past couple of days? During particularly bad times I'm even getting various HTTP errors.
|
29940d91-c42b-49ed-a057-4fdf1cf3f013 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Saturating utilities as a model
Okay, it is a very raw idea, but consider the utility processing that works as following:
1: The utility i'm speaking of is not 'happiness', nor is it 'strength of the compulsion', the utility is only used for the purpose of comparing between futures to pick the one with larger utility... |
7163b37e-2b64-4a8c-b7d1-bc01b7b3a455 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sweet Unconsciousness
Hello LW,
There has been some interest around here about atypical mental phenomena such as synesthesia, blindsight, absence of mental images, and so on. There have also been sappy posts and requests for help. I'd like to discuss my personal quirks in the hopes that it is interesting and someone ... |
75c50a4f-5cf9-4bae-a0fc-3b17b8bca7ed | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI #23: Fundamental Problems with RLHF
After several jam-packed weeks, things slowed down to allow everyone to focus on the potential room temperature superconductor, [check Polymarket to see how likely it is we are so back](https://polymarket.com/event/is-the-room-temp-superconductor-real) and bet real money, [or Man... |
948dfb01-5363-46ee-89d1-975c2836b385 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Comments on CAIS
Over the last few months I’ve talked with Eric Drexler a number of times about his Comprehensive AI Services (CAIS) model of AI development, and read most of his technical report on the topic. I think these are important ideas which are well worth engaging with, despite personally being skeptical abou... |
7755f66f-2024-4f83-be7d-d3334173f957 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A High Decoupling Failure
High-decoupling vs low-decoupling or decoupling vs contextualizing refers to two different cultural norms, cognitive skills, or personal dispositions that change the way people approach ideas.
> High-decouplers isolate ideas from each other and the surrounding context. This is a necessary pr... |
8f3daaaa-4f55-477b-8bd2-bda674580b8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [U.S. specific] PPP: free money for self-employed & orgs (time-sensitive)
[cross-posted from EA forum]
PPP is the "paycheck protection program", a big US government giveaway to businesses including self-employed people (e.g. many grant recipients) and nonprofits. There was a PPP round last year—see this EA Forum post... |
348934ef-df78-426e-9f09-28c33607b82f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inaccessible finely tuned RNG in humans?
It was my impression that humans are bad at random (number) generation. Tell a person to arrange stars on a black canvas randomly, and they'll space them out more or less equidistantly and uniformly. If asked to generate a sequence of coin flips, we would avoid longer runs of t... |
18b1a1f7-7c42-436f-a35c-a550fab78103 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lesswrong Community's How-Tos and Recommendations
The Lesswrong community is often a dependable source of recommendations, network help, and advice. When I'm looking for a book or learning material on a topic I'll often try and search here to see what residents have found useful. Similarly, social advice, anecdotes an... |
19bf2b2e-f18c-47f9-b43d-c5a6f1134f37 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Equilibrium and prior selection problems in multipolar deployment
To avoid catastrophic conflict in multipolar AI scenarios, we would like to design AI systems such that AI-enabled actors will tend to cooperate. This post is about some problems facing this effort and some possible solutions. To explain these problems... |
c53de208-d893-46f9-bb26-54eff1a56c12 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pain is not the unit of Effort
(Content warning: self-harm, parts of this post may be actively counterproductive for readers with certain mental illnesses or idiosyncrasies.)
> What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. ~ Kelly Clarkson.
>
> No pain, no gain. ~ Exercise motto.
>
> The more bitterness you swallow, th... |
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