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b03133fe-3639-4721-a521-d70ea6e77b96 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Voting Results for the 2021 Review
Well, that's a wrap for the 2021 Review. We had 238 people cast votes. 452 posts were originally nominated, of which 149 posts received at least one review. The LessWrong moderation team will be awarding prizes and assembling posts into the Best of 2021 Books / Sequences soon. But fo... |
4ecad884-51ae-49ff-8577-ea8e70775a70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA: Bias Bias
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA: Bias Bias
WHEN: 28 October 2015 07:00:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: Westside Pavilion Mall, 10850 Pico Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90064
How to Find Us: We are meeting at the old location again this week, in the upstairs wine bar at Westside Pavillion.
Discu... |
926b98af-568b-4974-824c-99707aec40d9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Open Problems in AI X-Risk [PAIS #5]
*This is the fifth post in* [*a sequence of posts*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/bffA9WC9nEJhtagQi/introduction-to-pragmatic-ai-safety-pragmatic-ai-safety-1) *that describe our models for Pragmatic AI Safety.*
Dan Hendrycks (an author of this post), Nicholas Carlini, John ... |
e63d19ed-3528-4aaf-b25d-1c13342ae71a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Happiness and Productivity. Living Alone. Living with Friends. Living with Family.
What I want to get people to discuss here is obvious given the title. What has been their experience regarding who and specially how many people they live with, and how that impacted their motivation and happiness.
I don't want to pe... |
9fccc5ff-c81a-4ba3-9e4d-59e4fba22718 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2024 Unofficial LessWrong Survey Results
Thanks to everyone who took the Unofficial 2024 LessWrong Survey. For the results, check out the data below.
The Data
0. Population
There were two hundred and seventy nine respondents over thirty three days. Previous surveys have been run over the last decade and a half.
... |
2cc74db2-70f0-490d-8d4c-feb831e6d060 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Bet Your Friends to Be More Right
This article does a good job of explaining how betting can be a useful rationality practice. An excerpt:
> The interesting thing about this practice was that it made us both think very carefully about the accuracy of all of our statements. The most embarrassing thing ever was ... |
9a8c1c8f-4f66-4f8b-9dd4-a92b68926fa7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Antonio Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : San Antonio Meetup
WHEN: 10 April 2016 02:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 12651 Vance Jackson Rd #118, San Antonio, TX 78230
Bubble tea, frozen yogurt, and discussion. All are welcome.
New Meetup to discuss rationality and all things LessWrong and meet the loc... |
cbb1f3df-9c3a-4711-9344-f43c85748144 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In support of Yak Shaving
Original post: http://bearlamp.com.au/in-support-of-yak-shaving/
Part 2: http://bearlamp.com.au/yak-shaving-2/
----------------------------------------
Yak shaving is heralded as pretty much "the devil" of trying to get things done. The anti-yak shaving movement will identify this probl... |
0f4888a0-3980-40d3-a7d1-15cab86878ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Parsimony as a side dish - a game to play on meetups?
Tl;dr: we seem to (naively?) compound parsimony with other heuristics.
There was a quote from R. Burton, provided by JQuinton, offering an amusing exercise. The reader had to guess if an excerpt of text was nonsense or merely a rambling presentation of something, ... |
529330b3-4932-4410-b46a-71f09719ebee | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | What are current smaller problems related to top EA cause areas (eg deepfake policies for AI risk, ongoing covid variants for bio risk) and would it be beneficial for these small and not-catastrophic challenges to get more EA resources, as a way of developing capacity to prevent the catastrophic versions?
How might EA... |
84706c80-1f4a-49b2-ade2-93adfe887013 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | O2 Curve Review: Well Worth the Money
[Cross-posted from Grand, Unified, Empty. This is not an incentivized review; nobody at O2 even knows I’m writing this and none of the links have referral tracking. This is not medical advice, I am not a doctor, etc.]
Like many of you, I’ve been wearing a reusable cloth mask for ... |
627b4fb6-4d24-4086-9e85-2dc87f631761 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | On Interpretability's Robustness
*Léo Dana - Produced as part of the SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program - Summer 2023 Cohort, as well as an internship at FAR AI, both under the mentorship of Claudia Shi.*
**Would you trust the** [**IOI**](https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.00593) **circuit?**
-------------------------... |
046da3d0-a7ce-45e1-8ff9-2e792db5370e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Experimental Fat Loss
With the end of the world nigh, and a public panic about to start, this seems an ideal time to worry about weight loss and the obesity epidemic.
Coincidentally, for the first time in my life, I'm getting fat.
SlimeMoldTimeMold's 'Chemical Hunger' series
https://slimemoldtimemold.com/2021/07/... |
2cd22314-3ed7-4a4a-89b5-1c50b69fcca0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What fraction of breakthrough COVID cases are attributable to low antibody count?
To what extent are COVID cases in vaccinated people a result of low antibody count, vs other factors (e.g. initial viral load)? Where does most of the variance come from?
Motivation for this question: in a world where most breakthrough ... |
817e7486-9897-45e0-b036-ced4244472d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fully Live Electronic Contra
Contra dance traditionally has live music, which I think is key to why the music and dancing have been able to stay tightly coupled as they've both changed over the decades. Over the past ~14y, however, there have been a few different approaches to pulling elements of electronic music into... |
fda5097d-354d-4059-b9e0-367ba5ff3cbc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] A Rational Argument
Today's post, A Rational Argument was originally published on 02 October 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> You can't produce a rational argument for something that isn't rational. First select the rational choice. Then the rational argument is just a list of the same evide... |
c894102e-0a56-40bf-a210-1936ff7abbbb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | 2012 Winter Matching Challenge!
Thanks to the generosity of several major donors,† every donation to the Machine Intelligence Research Institute made now until January 5th, 2013 will be matched dollar-for-dollar, up to a total of $115,000!
**[Donate Now!](https://intelligence.org/donate/)**
$0
$28.75K
... |
195423fe-040e-4b86-b743-641d33173cd5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/distill | Distill Scientific Journal | A Visual Exploration of Gaussian Processes
Even if you have spent some time reading about machine learning, chances are that you have never heard of Gaussian processes.
And if you have, rehearsing the basics is always a good way to refresh your memory.
With this blog post we want to give an introduction to Gaussian ... |
ffe6238e-7acb-4e7b-98f3-ef54c80ce221 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evidence for surprising ease of de-nuclearization
http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/2010/12/the-symbolic-power-of-nuclear-deterrents/ |
b013dd82-72d4-4ecc-a535-c3eee254dca4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Bad Universal Priors and Notions of Optimality
1 Introduction
---------------
The choice of the universal Turing machine (UTM) has been a big open question
in algorithmic information theory for a long time.
While attempts have been made (Müller, [2010](#bib.bib13))
no answer is in sight.
The *Kolmogorov complexity*... |
2950cb13-9397-4a4e-8464-5ef10b8d929c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to learn soft skills
Acquiring some skills is mostly about deliberate, explicit information transfer. For example, one might explicitly learn the capital of Missouri, or the number of miles one can drive before needing an oil change, or how to use the quadratic formula to solve quadratic equations.
For other ski... |
9c227849-e50e-49fa-af3b-60da1b1d6a61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Links] Brain mapping/emulation news
Obama Seeking to Boost Study of Human Brain - Like the Human Genome Project, but for brain mapping (Feb 17)
Human brain and graphene projects chosen for one billion euro grants: official press release (Jan 28)
Gary Marcus reacts
Edit: If anyone is going to email the people behin... |
051de40d-5e29-4b31-9e42-89e1b26a1944 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Canonical forms
This post in the link gives an intuitive connection between canonical forms in mathematics and easy-to-understand examples in day-to-day conversations. It was motivated by the following question I posed to myself:
* Why do mathematicians value canonical forms?
I think this addresses an important cla... |
78f32bed-b64a-4e98-bae4-468c4c3b7523 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Respect for Boundaries as non-arbirtrary coordination norms
Introduction
Andrew Critch has recently written about how respect for boundaries are norms that, to some extent, should convergently arise.
In this post, I want to link the concept of boundary preservation to active inference and, more importantly, game the... |
a1588a9c-1caf-41c9-8657-3914bde406cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Simple Two-Axis Model of Subjective States, with Possible Applications to Utilitarian Problems
At the beginning of last year, I noticed that neuroscience is very confused about what suffering is. This bothered me quite a lot, because I couldn't see how Utilitarianism or even Consequentialism could ever be coherent w... |
dcd5fa42-91c6-44d1-9b08-4436dd328e50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Politics Discussion Thread September 2012
The last thread didn't fare too badly, I think; let's make it a monthly tradition. (Me, I'm more interested in thinking about real-world policies or philosophies, actual and possible, rather than AI design or physics, and I suspect that many fine, non-mind-killed folks reading... |
5f4f6b80-c5aa-4f36-9bc6-7e9856769ce7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is wrong with this "utility switch button problem" approach?
Suppose you have some positive utility functions A,B , mathematically considered to be random variables dependant on choice of policy.
Let K be a random variable that is 1 if the button is pressed, 0 otherwise. Again dependant on choice of policy. I a... |
ede0a00f-00a5-4584-8a13-41c3f9044a1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intelligence in systems (human, AI) can be conceptualized as the resolution and throughput at which a system can process and affect Shannon information.
10+ years in Machine Learning Infrastructure Engineering - My perspective:
Intelligence in systems (human, AI) can be conceptualized as the resolution and throughpu... |
fd6af124-ecad-4c57-85d8-79c294eea661 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will outlets like the NYT be captured by Chinese influence and if so, when?
John Cena apology for suggesting that Taiwan is a country by saying “Taiwan is the first country that can watch F9” illustrates how China has immense power over Hollywood. As China's influence growth in the world they will try to exert influen... |
72c646bc-9dc3-46e3-bc5b-b058ce457e1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ngo and Yudkowsky on alignment difficulty
This post is the first in a series of transcribed Discord conversations between Richard Ngo and Eliezer Yudkowsky, moderated by Nate Soares. We've also added Richard and Nate's running summaries of the conversation (and others' replies) from Google Docs.
Later conversation pa... |
43792348-92db-42c9-b705-3ea539acd968 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Looking back at my grad school journey
I recently defended my [PhD thesis](https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/33840728), and a chapter of my life has now come to an end. It feels both exciting and a bit disorienting to be done with this phase of much stress and growth. My past self who started this five years ago, with... |
42645067-523a-4d28-b72d-35c9a78f748a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where do you live? Meetup planners want to know
Disclaimer: English is not my mother's tongue so I am prone to make mistakes. Please correct and forgive me if I do.
In the recent LessWrong survey 1090 people responded. Sadly, information about the place of residence was not asked for but could have been very useful t... |
6a00095b-0d1f-4605-87bb-a7997f6f7f2a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The "I Already Get It" Slide
|
9eb99b3b-1943-4078-a7cf-b4cf079b046f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing the ERA Cambridge Summer Research Fellowship
The Existential Risk Alliance (ERA) has opened applications for an in-person, paid, 8-week Summer Research Fellowship focused on existential risk mitigation, taking place from July 3rd to August 25th 2023 in Cambridge, UK, and aimed at all aspiring researchers, i... |
0641a147-bfbf-40d9-a896-f0504226094f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Clumping Solstice Singalongs in Groups of 2-4
This post assumes you're familiar with rationalist solstice. (It also assumes that while yes, ritual is something to be epistemically careful about, the overall effect size is relatively small compared to spending much of your life thinking about a topic with peers that th... |
462495bc-826e-43b0-8ee2-530b64526491 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI Safety and Alignment at Google DeepMind:
A Summary of Recent Work
We wanted to share a recap of our recent outputs with the AF community. Below, we fill in some details about what we have been working on, what motivated us to do it, and how we thought about its importance. We hope that this will help people build ... |
b05ce6f2-fe35-49c8-a29d-25df99e60e5e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Balancing Efficiency and Comfort in Robot-Assisted Bite Transfer.
I Introduction
---------------
Imagine a setting where you want to pick up a piece of food, e.g., a baby carrot, from a salad bowl to eat. Non-disabled people might overlook the complexity of this daily task — they might use a fork to pick up the car... |
b62bd5cc-39cc-4c6e-8d3a-adf7830f21b6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Metauncertainty
**Response to:** [When (Not) To Use Probabilities](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/07/when-not-to-use.html)
“It appears to be a quite general principle that, whenever there is a randomized way of doing something, then there is a nonrandomized way that delivers better performance but requires m... |
1cebce4f-a094-4ab7-bd76-40232dd7331b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agisf | AGI Safety Fund | Syllabus: Artificial Intelligence and International Security
Remco Zwetsloot
July 2018
v1
Syllabus: Artificial Intelligence and International Security
1
Audiences and use.
This syllabus covers material located at the intersection between artificial
intelligence (AI) and international security. The sylla... |
15b6f1d6-112d-4571-a1f5-cfed6f0a20c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Time complexity for deterministic string machines
This was a project conducted during MATS 5.0 under the mentorship of Vanessa Kosoy and supported by a grant from BERI. It builds off the String Machines framework (and depends on the linked post for certain definitions), which models category-theoretic generalizations ... |
f3e06af6-7511-4565-81c3-db736c8aadb2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 13
"Wait," said Luna, "This is the Lost Diadem of Ravenclaw. It makes the wearer smarter. You might want it."
Professor Quirrel took the diadem in his hands. He feinted as if to place it over his head.
"I am an Occlumens," said Professor Quirrel, "Ravenclaw's device ri... |
b5f7482d-e5dc-4ed1-935b-86fbcd105e4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | .
. |
68a0ca5c-e6eb-4481-ae7b-ef81258207b2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Purposefulness on Mars
Three different Martians built the Three Sacred Stone Walls of Mars according to the Three Virtues of walls:Height, Strength, and Beauty.
An evil Martian named Ution was the first and stupidest of all wallbuilders. He was too stupid to truly understand even the most basic virtue of height, and ... |
7cedf21d-dad4-41b1-9cf2-14b523273191 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Biology-Inspired AGI Timelines: The Trick That Never Works
– 1988 –
--------
**Hans Moravec:** Behold my book *Mind Children.* Within, I project that, in 2010 or thereabouts, we shall achieve strong AI. I am not calling it “Artificial General Intelligence” because this term will not be coined for another 15 years... |
10551e1c-42d0-4e39-9c8f-da9002fc3cfc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are some Civilizational Sanity Interventions?
Lately, I've been thinking about the class of things that I'm calling "Civilizational Sanity Interventions." With that term I'm meaning to refer to technologies, institutions, projects, or norms that, if implemented, would improve the quality of high level decision ma... |
cb5a1490-9273-4799-bbc2-826f0a988072 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monopoly: A Manifesto and Fact Post
Epistemic Status: exploratory. I am REALLY not an economist, I don’t even play one on TV.
[Edit: After some discussion in the comments I've updated that that GDP-to-gold, or GDP-to-oil, are bad proxy measures for economic growth. Further thoughts on this in Oops on Commodity Prices... |
c49d37c2-12c2-4a63-86b6-82a7505fbb5c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread 7th september - 13th september
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immed... |
e8a8c861-fa3d-4ec4-b2c1-3fccf619d251 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Possible miracles
Epistemic status: Speculative and exploratory.
Contributions: Akash wrote the initial list; Thomas reviewed the list and provided additional points. Unless specified otherwise, writing in the first person is by Akash and so are the opinions. Thanks to Joshua Clymer, Tom Shlomi, and Eli Lifland for c... |
53c4095d-74a6-4e7c-bb83-8841fc9bea68 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Rationalists complain that most people are too willing to make excuses for their positions, and too unwilling to abandon those positions for ones that better fit the evidence. And most people really are pretty bad at this. But certain stroke victims called anosognosiacs are much, much worse.Anosognosia is the conditio... |
149c1393-67aa-4fcf-9054-779015bae281 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Durham LW Meetup: Zendo
Discussion article for the meetup : Durham LW Meetup: Zendo
WHEN: 03 January 2013 07:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Francesca's cafe, 706 9th Street, Durham, NC 27705
We'll be meeting to play Zendo and chat about general rationality topics. Come join us and play or learn to play if you have... |
9c433b1d-b1b4-4055-b814-a74db0e0c478 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shifting Headspaces - Transitional Beast-Mode
I was sitting in a tiny rental lodge, feeling resistance. It was about dinner time — I knew I should go make some food. I just wanted to sleep, sink into a bed and stay passive. It felt similar to when I’m recently awake, lying in bed, and procrastinating getting up.
On t... |
ffa2480d-27e5-4046-bd56-7b0ab54261a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Consciousness, Free Will and Scientific Objectivity in Perspective-Based Reasoning
I have been avoiding this subject since it is too metaphysical for my taste. My interest was in specific problems such as anthropic paradoxes. However, my solution to them does have clear dispositions on these topics. So I will lay it o... |
7cced9aa-eac7-4a04-90cb-a37f3f06e439 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Fables and Nuanced Charts
Written by Spencer Greenberg & Amber Dawn Ace for Asimov Press.
In 1994, the U.S. Congress passed the largest crime bill in U.S. history, called the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act. The bill allocated billions of dollars to build more prisons and hire 100,000 new police offi... |
378de303-fe6e-4128-b0e7-bca306776a41 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Better and Worse Ways of Stating SIA
This post is motivated by Joe Carlsmith's post in which he argued some ways of understanding SIA undersells its appeal. He purposed a better way of stating SIA. I disagree with some of the assessments.
Before I start, it should be pointed out that all different ways of stating SIA... |
517cfe64-4586-4b14-b43a-c1ba7298ee89 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Neural Machine Translation by Jointly Learning to Align and Translate
\thesection Introduction
-------------------------
Neural machine translation is a newly emerging approach to machine
translation, recently proposed by \citetKalchbrenner2013,
\citetSutskever2014 and \citetCho2014a. Unlike the traditional phrase-... |
88bb7c96-8e2a-47da-9bba-fdbea9630ec3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Before smart AI, there will be many mediocre or specialized AIs
**Summary:**
* In the current paradigm, training is much more expensive than inference. So whenever we finish end-to-end training a language model, we can run a lot of them in parallel.
+ If a language model was trained with Chinchilla scaling laws on ... |
1645cce4-d588-4fe6-a7f1-b2ffc4be4b19 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Human Mimicry Mainly Works When We’re Already Close
What if we just simulate a bunch of alignment researchers, and have them solve the problem for us?
Of all the Dumb Alignment Ideas, this one is easily the best. Simple argument in favor: well, it’s not going to do any worse than the researchers would have done. In o... |
8e27e955-0afd-45e5-8c50-1a0dd28bca09 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Formalization, Mechanization and Automation of Gödel's Proof of God's Existence
|
e7bb8717-4883-4cfd-a6f6-8bb7a68be88a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Peter's COVID Consolidated Brief for 2 April
Happy April!
...All I can think of is that it’s hard to imagine that just three weeks ago the world felt so different than it does today. I am still following COVID-19 a lot, so here’s my second semi-regular installment of a public consolidated brief that tries to consolid... |
ca7f4985-db92-4003-a70d-ceac7e680398 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On The Current Status Of AI Dating
In the past months there has been a number of posts and stories regarding AI dating. People tried (with various degrees of success) to simulate a romantic partner using LLMs[1] and the topic has been explored with various degrees of controversy in many discussion boards.
Even here ... |
c241de2d-9029-45a9-8a5b-695412017783 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The space of systems and the space of maps
When we're trying to do AI alignment, we're often studying systems which don't yet exist. This is a pretty weird epistemic activity, and seems really hard to get right. This post offers one frame for thinking about what we're actually doing when we're thinking about AI alignm... |
8fcc010d-19b0-4481-ba01-d9fff2fe3d77 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Conservation of Expected Evidence
Title: [SEQ RERUN] Conservation of Expected Evidence Tags: sequence_reruns Today's post, Conservation of Expected Evidence was originally published on 13 August 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> If you are about to make an observation, then the expected value of... |
e6208c50-f199-4628-9cc0-8f7dc8d68fbb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (Almost) every moral theory can be represented by a utility function
This was demonstrated, in a certain limited way, in Peterson (2009). See also Lowry & Peterson (2011).
The Peterson result provides an "asymmetry argument" in favor of consequentialism:
> Consequentialists can account for phenomena that are usually... |
c3adace1-d099-4a4c-b608-b546417d1554 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Field Patterns" as a new mathmatical construct.
|
f169ddf0-be6b-4bd9-9191-f8ca88ddb44a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: 'Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House'
Part one: what is this book and should you read it?
Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House (henceforth rendered “The Keys”) is an ambitious book. Penned by historian Allan Lichtman, The Keys explains his system for forecasti... |
2856d22b-4268-49c9-84dc-e721cffba581 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The probability that Artificial General Intelligence will be developed by 2043 is extremely low.
Summary
-------
The many successes of Deep Learning over the past ten years have catapulted Artificial Intelligence into the public limelight in an unprecedented way. Nevertheless, both critics and advocates have express... |
771b1281-4a95-4b65-8a0c-435be39e159f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Otherness and control in the age of AGI
(Cross-posted from my website. PDF of the full series here. Audio version of the full series here; or search for "Joe Carlsmith Audio" on your podcast app.)
> “With malice towards none; with charity towards all; with firmness in the right, as God gives us to see the right…”
> ... |
4d856462-b867-4702-8bc0-fd76eeb7e322 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Applications open for AGI Safety Fundamentals: Alignment Course
The [AGI Safety Fundamentals (AGISF)](https://www.agisafetyfundamentals.com/?utm_source=EA+Forum&utm_medium=launch+post&utm_campaign=AGISF): Alignment Course is designed to introduce the key ideas in AGI safety and alignment, and provide a space and suppo... |
a03bd6e2-ebee-4936-8a07-74591bbf0a70 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [Part 2] Amplifying generalist research via forecasting – results from a preliminary exploration
*This post covers the set-up and results from our exploration in amplifying generalist research using predictions, in detail. It is accompanied by [a second post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cLtdcxu9E4noRSons) with a h... |
fefb38ea-f058-4c42-afcd-eb3a1b9ae5b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Memento Mori", Said The Confessor
Abstract
The fear of death acts as a sort of master key for introductory rationality concepts. Examining the fear of death ties all the rationality basics together into a coherent framework, including:
* Map/Territory Errors
* Something To Protect
* Keeping Your Identity Small
*... |
0f475488-29ff-4089-9121-1ba68cd16f36 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | META: Which posts are appropriate for the articles section vs. the discussion section?
Should my post be sent to the discussion section or the articles section of Less Wrong? The published guidelines are slim.
Clearly, the following should be sent to discussion:
* Links
* Posts lacking the clarity, importance, and... |
dfd9559e-c60f-4a33-90f0-37b580ab641f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Mark Zuckerberg confronted about Meta's Llama 2 AI's ability to give users detailed guidance on making anthrax - Business Insider
> Several tech leaders descended upon Capitol Hill last week to discuss the rapid expansion of generative AI. It was a mostly staid meeting until the potential harms from Meta's ... |
0e057009-c197-4348-b50b-4cc3bdff3965 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Generative ML in chemistry is bottlenecked by synthesis
Introduction
Every single time I design a protein — using ML or otherwise — I am confident that it is capable of being manufactured. I simply reach out to Twist Biosciences, have them create a plasmid that encodes for the amino acids that make up my proteins, pus... |
244c0fe5-af6f-4b91-b34c-7322a00348a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Madison Monday Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Madison Monday Meetup
WHEN: 07 November 2011 08:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 1831 Monroe St., Madison, WI
Along with the usual likely discussions and likely games, I'll run some exercises on group estimation and Fermi calculations, and then we'll play a f... |
bc066ef1-499c-4916-926d-c75cd42ed0eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Coronavirus is Here
Even in the best case scenarios, things are going to get a lot worse from here before they get better.
Please, please, please, do not rely on me here to tell you what is going on or what to do. Even more than that, please, please, please, do not take this as saying that you shouldn’t do a lot more... |
4082594b-af7e-48d3-bd74-aeddc8da5e31 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Elon Musk interested in AI safety
http://www.businessinsider.com/musk-on-artificial-intelligence-2014-6
Summary: The only non-Tesla/SpaceX/SolarCity companies that Musk is invested in are DeepMind and Vicarious, due to vague feelings of wanting AI to not unintentionally go Terminator. The best part of the arti... |
71691e43-9f79-4ca7-b558-0eaf7d0cd278 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | US Govt Whistleblower guide (incomplete draft)
2025-05-20
WARNING
This guide is currently a research draft. DO NOT follow the guide as of today, if you are a whistleblower. I do not yet endorse following this guide as being sufficient to protect your safety. I am only sharing this to get research feedback. I will up... |
a41d60ec-b8dc-4275-b717-f9b6be4801a4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | You Are Likely To Be Eaten By A Grue
Previously in sequence/sequence index: Living Luminously
Next in sequence: Let There Be Light
Luminosity is fun, useful to others, and important in self-improvement. You should learn about it with this sequence.
Luminosity? Pah! Who needs it?
It's a legitimate question. The ... |
7697a48a-a81d-4290-814a-f30e7b714c82 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Morphism
A morphism is the abstract representation of a [relation](https://arbital.com/p/3nt) between [mathematical objects](https://arbital.com/p/-mathematical_object).
Usually, it is used to refer to [functions](https://arbital.com/p/3jy) mapping element of one set to another, but it may represent a more general no... |
ac8a48bc-4e7e-40c7-a79c-e2f82e9b37d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I may have just had a dangerous thought.
I'm interested in discussing this with someone, non-publicly. It's safe to know about personally, but it's not something I'd like people in general to know.
I'm really not sure if there is a protocol for this sort of thing. |
94095b2f-f236-40bc-973a-14e976defdb4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Shared Autonomy via Deep Reinforcement Learning
I Introduction
---------------
Imagine the task of flying a quadrotor to a safe landing site. This problem is challenging for both humans and robots, but in different ways. For a human, controlling many degrees of freedom at once while dealing with unfamiliar quadroto... |
ec389538-931f-4fec-a9c9-58beb3d5e5b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Group-level Consequences of Psychological Problems
In a previous post, we introduced the distinction between psychological disorders (massive life-shattering issues like some forms of schizophrenia and drug addiction) from psychological problems (more minor issues like being anger-driven or avoiding parties). And we h... |
d70f9af8-9886-4bfd-847b-79e1f8f01209 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | GPT 4 is Smarter than You Think: Introducing SmartGPT
I have three goals for this video first
I want to show you a way of using gpt4
to get smarter results second I want to
argue that The Benchmark results we have
for GT4 do not reflect its full
abilities and third I want to show you a
system that I am developing some... |
b2a5d519-6e48-4fe6-a382-5164847cda12 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Embedded Curiosities
This is the conclusion of the **[Embedded Agency](https://intelligence.org/embedded-agency)** series. Previous posts:
[Embedded Agents](https://intelligence.org/embedded-agents) — [Decision Theory](https://intelligence.org/embedded-decisions) — [Embedded World-Models](https://intelligence.... |
96b40581-95f7-47c3-906c-57f045044428 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Elementary Statistics
Our elementary school has a directory listing kids and parents, and since we live in the future it's a spreadsheet, which means I can count things. A typical family at this K-5 school has one child enrolled (76%). The child has two parents (96%) with different last names (59%), but they share a l... |
7fb11f45-687e-415f-a8ae-6f0c5e2d8697 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rational Communication
Hopefully LW trains its readers to be aware of personal failures of rationality and to correct them over time.
Whenever a small group (all the way down to 2) of rationalists communicate, they should make an equal effort to be aware of failures of their collective rationality (I definitely have ... |
05fd6b86-b32c-41cc-8d1a-dfb26c2cae6c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are there non-AI projects focused on defeating Moloch globally?
Meditations on Moloch lays out a rather pessimistic view of the future, and then offers a super-intelligent AI "gardener" as the solution. A lot of the rationalist community is focused on AI, which makes sense in that light (and of course because of the e... |
bb0d6bdd-c1e7-4320-9173-bc6d6e9e3505 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | legged robot scaling laws
Fiction has lots of giant walking robots. Those designs are generally considered impractical or impossible, but they've been discussed for thousands of years, there must be something appealing about them. So, let's consider exactly what's impractical about large walking robots and what proper... |
611a08ee-fae7-4642-9c3b-3aa6f687d994 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The entropy maxim for binary questions
The entropy of a message (H) is roughly proportional to the uniformity of its probability distribution (P(x) for each possible x). If the message has just two possible values, H is greater exactly insofar as the split between their probabilities is close to 50/50.
P(A)P(B)H (bit... |
1cb10cd0-bfe5-4cbb-a0c7-21b5f30d6ab2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tragedy of the free time commons
Procrastination often seems a bit like an internal tragedy of the commons.
In a tragedy of the commons, a group of people share something nice, like a shared pasture on which to raise their cows. If they together refrained from overusing it they would all benefit (e.g. because it does... |
8486b289-ae1c-4bfe-a5f4-44d20c5ce0f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | UK Predicted Grades
An issue arising in current UK politics is the issuing of high school grades for students who weren't able to take their exams this summer as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. This could be an interesting experiment in Game Theory; how does one decide what grade a student should get? Should one de... |
8fd2af1e-9110-4869-8421-847ed86f8a25 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ideas for benchmarking LLM creativity
|
94f1a04b-7643-4c4c-abe7-42ed97458225 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Provably Honest - A First Step
Introduction
I am new to AI Safety and this is my first lesswrong post (crossposted to EA Forum) so please feel free to correct my mistakes. This post is going to be a bit about my interpretation of existing alignment research and how I intend to tackle the problem, and the rest on prova... |
abfeadc8-58f4-4d70-a8f2-ae286aeb588e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing the Q1 2025 Long-Term Future Fund grant round
The Long-Term Future Fund is pleased to invite applications to our Q1 2025 funding round. We are seeking to support individuals and organizations working to help humanity navigate existential risks or working on projects improving humanity’s long-term flourishin... |
502f1756-e22f-460d-9caf-d24241dcf67f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rule Thinkers In, Not Out
Imagine a black box which, when you pressed a button, would generate a scientific hypothesis. 50% of its hypotheses are false; 50% are true hypotheses as game-changing and elegant as relativity. Even despite the error rate, it’s easy to see this box would quickly surpass space capsules, da Vi... |
8813d9a2-5f7a-4e05-a6e7-376f9ed08674 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA—The Relativity of Wrong
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA—The Relativity of Wrong
WHEN: 26 November 2014 07:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 11066 Santa Monica Blvd, Los Angeles, CA
How to Find Us: Go into this Del Taco. We will be in the back room if possible.
Parking is free in the lot out front... |
aa5cfc24-31b5-4c2c-835e-48500c0ea25b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | TED talk by Eliezer Yudkowsky: Unleashing the Power of Artificial Intelligence
**Note:** The video is no longer available. It has been set to private. It'll eventually be released on the main TED channel.
This is a TED talk published early by a random TEDx channel.
Tweet by EY: <https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/statu... |
26c08cb6-af12-4fa5-94cf-ed7135487725 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Governing High-Impact AI Systems: Understanding Canada’s Proposed AI Bill. April 15, Carleton University, Ottawa
Join us this April 15th for a panel discussion, keynote address by the founder of the Montreal AI Ethics Institute, and networking mixer on the governance of AI Systems in the Canadian context, held by EA C... |
a9f1c6d1-05b8-418d-a15d-12b50d3a3896 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking Optimization of New Website "New Atheist Survival Kit," a go-to site for newly-made atheists
I've put together a website, "New Atheist Survival Kit" at atheistkit.wordpress.com
The idea is to help new atheists come to terms with their change in belief, and also invite them to become more than atheists: rat... |
8c543779-0bc2-4caf-a5ff-1ba0b9ce4a60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rational Resolutions: Special CFAR Mini-workshop SATURDAY
This Saturday, Michael Valentine and I are taking the most fun and potent habit-formation material from CFAR's previous four-day workshops, and focusing that material towards making rational New Year's resolutions - and then actually keeping them.
If you're in... |
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