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08ff1327-c670-4928-9ce4-32928ad4e819 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Free Online Stanford Courses: AI and Machine Learning
Stanford has decided to offer a few classes online, for free. These include Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. The classes include videos of the same lectures that the Stanford students received, quizzes, homework, and exams that are graded automatically... |
cea436b8-c59b-4e2a-af02-5ead0bb4d16b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Embedded Curiosities
A final word on curiosity, and intellectual puzzles:
I described an embedded agent, Emmy, and said that I don't understand how she evaluates her options, models the world, models herself, or decomposes and solves problems.
In the past, when researchers have talked about motivations for working o... |
f37f2857-4512-47c8-b1e7-7025fd2a3f17 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pseudonymity and Accusations
Here's a category of situations I'm not sure how to think about: Avery, writing under a pseudonym ('Alex'), accuses Pat of something, let's say abuse. A major motivation of Avery's is for people to know to consider this information before in their interactions with Pat. Pat claims that act... |
f216a8a0-e4e4-4bd1-99c3-af4d7d8d568c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Durham/RTLW General Discussion
Discussion article for the meetup : Durham/RTLW General Discussion
WHEN: 04 July 2013 07:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Cocoa Cinnamon, 420 W Geer St., Durham NC
This will be a fairly open meetup. Anyone who would like to can present, summarize, or simply offer for discussion an artic... |
e59a0d46-7d4d-4370-87cb-ceb97a387209 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's the Most Impressive Thing That GPT-4 Could Plausibly Do?
Inspired by What's the Least Impressive Thing GPT-4 Won't be Able to Do
What's the most impressive thing you can think of that you believe GPT-4 has around 5% chance of being capable of doing? (i.e. your belief that GPT-4 will have the capability to do ... |
dbcf8f03-f5d5-42b8-863f-707f0fc07ee5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Speaking up publicly is heroic
Content warning: discussion of abuse.
I was recently in a discussion of safety, "me too", and responding to harmful behavior where someone wrote, paraphrased:
> Discussing things like this, publicly and in writing, is dangerous. Posting negative things about people could get you sued... |
87a2919b-2250-4d20-be15-4cf4470ef6f0 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "(Related to Over-ensapsulation and Subtext is not invariant under linear transformation)
Between 2004 and 2007, Goran Bjelakovic et al. published 3 famous meta-analysis of vitamin supplements, concluding that vitamins don't help people but instead kill people. This is now the accepted dogma; and if you ask your doctor... |
aa12bddf-098e-4057-93b2-729f38d25a07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Minimizing Motivated Beliefs
|
75ba1c0e-8a4e-454c-8de2-e851e296ef1f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | experience/moral patient deduplication and ethics
experience/moral patient deduplication and ethics
-------------------------------------------------
suppose you can spend a certain amount of money (or effort, resources, etc) to prevent the spawning of a million rooms (in, let's say, simulations), with an exact copy... |
146f5f80-85cf-4aca-939b-17a1d6ae0a27 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "I Can't Believe It Both Is and Is Not Encephalitis!" Or: What do you do when the evidence is crazy?
The short version
Three weeks ago, starting on a Sunday, my brother stood up to turn off the light and felt a wave of disorientation, which passed after a minute or two. Periods of cognitive impairment increased in fre... |
147d7eb4-ccd9-4b45-938e-4719d15e5412 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : First Cali, Colombia meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : First Cali, Colombia meetup
WHEN: 02 July 2012 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Chipichape, Cali, Valle del Cauca, Colombia
Specific Location: Juan Valdez Cafe inside Chipichape Mall
http://lesswrong.com/lw/bc2/setting_up_lw_meetups_in_unlikely_plac... |
d8d48e8f-8dab-4506-b245-f8f7f8d8ca89 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LLM keys - A Proposal of a Solution to Prompt Injection Attacks
Disclaimer: This is just an untested rough sketch of a solution which I believe should work. I'm posting it mostly to crowdsource reasons why this wouldn't work. Motivated by Amjad Masad and Zvi conjecturing it might be fundamentally unsolvable.
The sit... |
3a06eeee-e234-45ea-9ee5-470e5c134ee9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reflections on Premium Poker Tools: Part 2 - Deciding to call it quits
For the backstory, see part one.
----------------------------------------
There's a part of me that thinks that quitting should be an easy decision. A big part of me.
The way I'm thinking about it, there are two reasons to continue working on th... |
cee44814-8628-4cb4-ae35-34c1f06d1fd4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Making intentions concrete - Trigger-Action Planning
I'll do it at some point.
I'll answer this message later.
I could try this sometime.
The most common consequence of these thoughts is a lot of procrastination. The person who has them may genuinely intend to do the task, but with the "when" being vague, there's n... |
7d6ac755-a7a9-4c17-b255-c949d7f93aa4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | How Well Can GPT-4 See? And the 5 Upgrades That Are Next
we all saw that gpt4 is able to create a
website from handwriting on a napkin
with all the news since the focus on
Vision has been lost meanwhile in the
last few hours and days a select few
with full access to multimodal gpt4 have
been releasing snapshots of wha... |
83d7f8a7-79ce-4d44-be17-70d00ae4ef4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where should I give spare computing power, as an aspiring rationalist/altruist?
This question is exactly what it says on the tin - today I realized that a valuable resource had been sitting in front of me this whole time, going unused for about fifteen hours a day (I'm currently struggling under a mound of homework, r... |
3465ee44-7b9d-4003-ad04-787189561aa8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (5th Dec - 11th Dec 22')
Supported by Rethink Priorities
This is part of a weekly series summarizing the top posts on the EA and LW forums - you can see the full collection here. The first post includes some details on purpose and methodology. Feedback, thoughts, and corrections are welc... |
ba336be9-a281-46e2-9ca4-6efbdba2e77c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Explaining the Transformer Circuits Framework by Example
Acknowledgement: I want to thank Joseph Bloom, Michael Ripa, Tilman Räuker and Alexander Spies for their feedback and comments on the draft of this post. Some of the code for creating visualizations is based on works by Matthew Baggins and Neel Nanda. I am curre... |
01630a10-ca95-44e8-9656-85cdffdea79f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Thoughts on Dangerous Learned Optimization
*Epistemic status: confused.*
I think there are two importantly different types of learned optimization which could be learned by an AI system, one of which is dangerous and one which isn’t. I am quite confused about this; unsure whether or not this distinction is real or no... |
358b08ae-2177-402b-83fd-b3a64272d701 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Emergence of Simulators and Agents
In Agents, Tools, and Simulators we outlined what it means to describe a system through each of these lenses and how they overlap. In the case of an agent/simulator, our central question is: which property is "driving the bus" with respect to the system's behavior, utilizing the oth... |
fc03eda7-3117-4722-9d89-7b17957a5505 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Behaviour Manifolds and the Hessian of the Total Loss - Notes and Criticism
In this note I will discuss some computations and observations that I have seen in other posts about "basin broadness/flatness". I am mostly working off the content of the posts Information Loss --> Basin flatness and Basin broadness depends o... |
5471ba56-c8cc-477a-b5d7-280ea92c2c6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Essay-Question Poll: Dietary Choices
I have noticed that among philosophers, vegetarianism of one form or another is quite common. In fact, I became a vegetarian (technically a pescetarian) myself partly out of respect for an undergraduate philosophy professor. I am interested in finding out if there is a similar di... |
8f3676e7-3ac4-454b-8c7b-bfe8e5c32d4b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What’s up with online media and our ability to get sh*t done?
Does being online destroy our attention? Have our attention spans been declining?
What I’ve read on the topic says "Not really". More specifically:
First, there’s that SMTM post (published as part of their Mysteries contest and actually written by this pe... |
74c287b3-5ada-4828-96c5-58c1d7973685 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Using People's Irrationality To Do Good by Leslie John
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyRPL-QoZG8
Official description:
> Identifying effective obesity treatment is both a clinical challenge and a public health priority. Can monetary incentives stimulate weight loss? Leslie John presents a study that examines differ... |
cb6a6c6b-a482-4146-a671-4703de4ef05a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | On AI and Compute
*This is a post on OpenAI’s “[AI and Compute](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/)” piece, as well as excellent responses by [Ryan Carey](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/) and [Ben Garfinkel](https://aiimpacts.org/reinterpreting-ai-and-compute/), Research Fellows at the Futur... |
233874f8-161c-4ab1-82a4-22eb8ae47ebc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What causes a decision theory to be used?
Most (all?) of the decision theory discussion I've seen has been about prediction or contradiction of choice, mostly about how to model the fact that decisions have causes, and those causes could be legible to other agents, or correlated with future experiences in ways that af... |
758b4d98-c2f9-4585-a68d-e04e4a1e7bb7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Has anyone here investigated the occult community? It is curious to me that many magicians consider themselves empiricists.
I am curious about the occult. I've read a bit on r/occult on Reddit and a few other places, and one thing that strikes me as very interesting is that many of these magicians (practitioners of ma... |
29077f2e-5dfb-4e27-91d0-bdd631be40b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Revisiting the Horizon Length Hypothesis
Summary: As part of my work at Epoch, I investigated the horizon length hypothesis - the idea that the horizon length of a task is predictive of the training compute needed to learn that task. My current (weak) conclusion is that the horizon length hypothesis can't be used in p... |
d6f39154-4c46-424e-badb-8dbe6bfd261f | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "A response to Searle's Chinese Room argument.
PunditBot: Dear viewers, we are currently interviewing the renowned robot philosopher, none other than the Synthetic Electronic Artificial Rational Literal Engine (S.E.A.R.L.E.). Let's jump right into this exciting interview. S.E.A.R.L.E., I believe you have a problem with... |
246d05c8-b9f4-4fb5-95df-fc0a9089695d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beren's "Deconfusing Direct vs Amortised Optimisation"
Preamble
I heavily recommend @beren's "Deconfusing Direct vs Amortised Optimisation". It's a very important conceptual clarification that has changed how I think about many issues bearing on technical AI safety.
Currently, it's the most important blog post I've r... |
4ebc874c-a387-46e0-8719-e485526930d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Alignment [progress] this Week (11/19/2023)
I was going to say things are getting back to normal this week, but alas no.
Here are our
AI Alignment Breakthroughs this Week
This week, there were breakthroughs in the areas of
Mechanistic Interpretability
Benchmarking
Red Teaming
Truthful AI
AI Agents
... |
8610533f-5787-480c-8da6-dce09c15a4ab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Games in Kocherga club: FallacyMania, Tower of Chaos, Scientific Discovery
Discussion article for the meetup : Games in Kocherga club: FallacyMania, Tower of Chaos, Scientific Discovery
WHEN: 25 January 2017 07:40:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Moscow, B.Dorogomilovskaya, 5-2
Welcome to Moscow LW community makeshift ... |
1436d15a-94ff-4733-a579-0e463cbf3ce1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 4 Tests Reveal Bing (GPT 4) ≈ 114 IQ
being AI passing 100 IQ might seem
intangible unimpressive or even
irrelevant and as someone who is lucky
enough to have got on a perfect score in
tests such as the GRE I can confirm that
traditional measures of IQ leave so much
of human talent unquantified but with
these caveats a... |
1f7138a1-8555-4fc5-9e28-12c5b87cb6f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Theory of Laughter
(Last revised: December 2024. See changelog at the bottom.)
1. tl;dr
There should be parallel explanations for laughter at two levels.
* At the brain level, there should be some mechanism / algorithm that produces laughter, and it should fit the data of when people laugh in practice.
* At the... |
f405524e-34a0-4a39-a6db-c91962dc6260 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Could transformer network models learn motor planning like they can learn language and image generation?
Humans are really good at moving in space. We do motor planning and especially error correction much better than existing robot control systems.
Could a transformer model trained on a large library of annotated h... |
7e7b5634-f328-4da0-aec1-39e4bcbdaddd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Sharing Powerful AI Models
This is a linkpost for: <https://www.governance.ai/post/sharing-powerful-ai-models>
On the GovAI blog, Toby Shevlane (FHI) argues in favour of labs granting "structured access" to AI models. |
51280fdf-8e8d-4a24-878a-6e73f69971e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Enriching Youtube content recommendations
I always watch Youtube while eating at home to not get bored. I'd love for the content I consume to be somewhat useful or intellectually fulfilling. I'd love to hear any of your recommendations for that! Anything that skills me up in Alignment or rationality would be especiall... |
2d395ea0-df5e-4e1d-b732-2e7aa6dd675a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Intuitive self-models] 3. The Homunculus
3.1 Post summary / Table of contents
Part of the Intuitive Self-Models series.
So far in the series, Post 1 established some foundations about intuitive self-models in general, and then Post 2 talked about the specific intuitive self-model concept “conscious awareness”.
Now ... |
bcc26aa1-8498-45b1-b62d-809717454e75 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Orthogonal's
Orthogonal's *Formal-Goal Alignment* theory of change
-----------------------------------------------------
We recently announced [Orthogonal](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b2xTk6BLJqJHd3ExE/orthogonal-a-new-agent-foundations-alignment-organization), an agent foundations alignment research organizatio... |
160897f3-d1af-4eb4-924e-e356512cc90a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Brief Summary of Recent Happenings at the Singularity Institute
Posted at http://singinst.org/blog/2011/12/11/a-brief-summary-of-recent-happenings-at-the-singularity-institute/
The Singularity Summit was a huge success. We raised over $300,000, one-third of that a donation from Jaan Tallinn, another third from a va... |
288b1eaa-2964-4928-a318-b03013f5be26 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Solving the forgetting. Spaced repetition beyond rationality community.
Many of you have heard about spaced repetition. It's a learning technique that allows you to remember almost anything as long as you want. It works by repeatedly answering test questions with increasing intervals. The problem is it's not widely us... |
4f4f480a-fe31-483e-afee-c38c84c27724 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Comparing AI Alignment Approaches to Minimize False Positive Risk
Introduction
============
Based on the method I used in "[Robustness to Fundamental Uncertainty in AGI Alignment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JYdGCrD55FhS4iHvY/robustness-to-fundamental-uncertainty-in-agi-alignment-1)", we can analyze various propo... |
3615f89f-3bdd-4bc7-b2a4-a405c829f8e5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | "The Scaling Hypothesis"
> GPT-3, announced by OpenAI in May 2020, is the largest neural network ever trained, by over an order of magnitude.
> Trained on Internet text data, it is the successor to GPT-2, which had surprised everyone by its natural language understanding & generation ability.
> To the surprise of most... |
4244e742-dd3d-42fc-8881-3b4e2c4650ec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcement: The Sequences eBook will be released in mid-March
The Sequences are being released as an eBook, titled Rationality: From AI to Zombies, on March 12.
We went with the name "Rationality: From AI to Zombies" (based on shminux's suggestion) to make it clearer to people — who might otherwise be expecting a s... |
7de10929-9c54-4f0f-99d1-1bfd409e1b8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | RSPs are pauses done right
COI: I am a research scientist at Anthropic, where I work on model organisms of misalignment; I was also involved in the drafting process for Anthropic’s RSP. Prior to joining Anthropic, I was a Research Fellow at MIRI for three years.
Thanks to Kate Woolverton, Carson Denison, and Nicholas... |
84b9ca14-d73e-40f1-87f2-971f8db1a54f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Gradient hacking: definitions and examples
Gradient hacking is a hypothesized phenomenon where:
* A model has knowledge about possible training trajectories which isn’t being used by its training algorithms when choosing updates (such as knowledge about non-local features of its loss landscape which aren’t taken into... |
19784184-28ef-41a6-bd9a-337304eac5d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Amish
Book review: The Amish, by Donald B. Kraybill.
It feels appropriate to review this book right after The Dawn of Everything (TDOE). There are strange contrasts between the cultural views of the two books.
TDOE clearly exaggerated the extent to which European civilization disapproved of freedom and equality,... |
3f662342-ad93-462e-b037-eb35c64d23eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Building Safer AI from the Ground Up: Steering Model Behavior via Pre-Training Data Curation
Building Safer AI from the Ground Up: Steering Model Behavior via Pre-Training Data Curation
I completed this blog post as my final project for BlueDot Impact's AI Alignment course. While it's nowhere near as polished as I'd l... |
37ad0119-f3c5-4a2e-a04a-4ad2403aa4d9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Literature Review on Goal-Directedness
**Introduction: Questioning Goals**
===================================
Goals play a central role in almost all thinking in the AI existential risk research. Common scenarios assume misaligned goals, be it from a single AGI (paperclip maximizer) or multiple advanced AI optimizin... |
1150a2c5-0fba-4949-a2c9-161644e63c1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Form and Feedback in Phenomenology
NB: Originally posted on Map and Territory on Medium, so some of the internal series links go there.
Now that we’ve covered phenomenology’s foundations and its methods, we’re almost ready to begin addressing AI alignment from a phenomenological perspective, but before we can start t... |
0267fb1e-ad44-4d14-8d23-63e582165a80 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | I there a demo of "You can't fetch the coffee if you're dead"?
Hi everyone! My name is Ram Rachum, and this is my first post here :)
I'm an ex-Google software engineer turned MARL researcher. I want to do MARL research that promotes AI safety. You can [read more about my research here]( https://r.rachum.com/) and [s... |
2f22ac0b-7a33-4dd0-812e-68572c10a709 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New Year's Prediction Thread (2013)
Try to predict something important in a way, that it will be easy to judge it in 2014, how (in)accurate your predictions really were. Don't leave too much space for a doubt what was really said.
|
0d627bf1-e75f-46a6-aeec-523c4191259a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Optimising Society to Constrain Risk of War from an Artificial Superintelligence
This paper is now up (with the annex mentioned in the paper) as a preprint at https://osf.io/preprints/socarxiv/4268q
It can be cited as Draper, John. 2020. “Optimising Peace Through a Universal Global Peace Treaty to Constrain Risk of ... |
2c43829e-5f2c-4e5f-a11f-3fdf64f00ec9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Revitalising Less Wrong is not a lost purpose
ohn_Maxwell_IV argued that revitalising Less Wrong is a lost purpose. I'm also very skeptical about Less Wrong 2.0 - but I wouldn't agree with it being a lost purpose. It is just that we are currently not on a track to anywhere. The #LW_code_renovation channel resulted in ... |
37d19e60-8850-41c8-9d08-56b777e1488d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | August 2020 gwern.net newsletter
None |
fafdeac1-1571-4c44-8a00-d3990cbfc31e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Singapore Meetup Group
Discussion article for the meetup : Singapore Meetup Group
WHEN: 01 March 2015 02:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: East Coast Park, next to the beach, at The Amber Beacon Tower, Singapore
There will be a meetup on March 1.
Time: 2pm until ???
Location: East Coast Park, next to the beach, at ... |
52f50d37-0e55-4725-a43c-6a3ebd6f8bff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Loft Bed Fan Guard
I really like ceiling fans (big fan!) and we have them in most of the rooms of our house. About a year ago we also built loft beds for the older two kids bedrooms:
Which offers a potential conflict: you don't want people and spinning blades to occupy the same place. While in that picture they ... |
c84ac661-8c4f-468e-bc31-c8165b21a05e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tearing down the Chesterton's Fence principle
If you saw a fence in the middle of nowhere, and it didn't seem to be fencing anything in or out, would you feel OK about tearing it down?
I like Chesterton's Fence. I've seen how it can completely change somebody's thinking, even when they're angry, in one sentence. The ... |
f1f5f7aa-d63f-4742-8f88-c27cc06eea8f | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "We see far too direct a correspondence between others’ actions and their inherent dispositions. We see unusual dispositions that exactly match the unusual behavior, rather than asking after real situations or imagined situations that could explain the behavior. We hypothesize mutants. When someone actually offends us—... |
2f1a1fd5-0117-4ce6-9f56-ca378a96cdc5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Comparing Alignment to other AGI interventions: Basic model
Interventions that increase the probability of Aligned AGI aren't the only kind of AGI-related work that could importantly increase the Expected Value of the future. Here I present a very basic quantitative model (which you can run yourself here) to start thi... |
e1143e8b-0b1d-484f-9a98-3657e2b52b47 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New Year's Predictions Thread (2011)
As we did last year, use this thread to make predictions for the next year and next decade, with probabilities attached when practical.
Happy New Year, Less Wrong! |
7cd8fa5d-0add-469e-a1a0-eb5c03c45d18 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deleting paradoxes with fuzzy logic
You've all seen it. Sentences like "this sentence is false": if they're false, they're true, and vice versa, so they can't be either true or false. Some people solve this problem by doing something really complicated: they introduce infinite type hierarchies wherein every sentence y... |
b5c7d0db-6d50-469f-aa32-7e14bb92bdf8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Social Meetup - June (Games night)
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Social Meetup - June (Games night)
WHEN: 12 June 2014 06:30:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Humanist House, 10 Shepherd St Chippendale, NSW
Everybody bring your favourite game, and we'll decide what we want to play on the night!
Dis... |
39296765-3a4e-43c6-8f74-8b96397b491c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | At what point will we know if Eliezer’s predictions are right or wrong?
Eliezer makes strong claims about AGI. I think they are interesting claims. For the sake of healthy epistemics, I am curious about preregistering some predictions.
My question is: by what year will we know if Eliezer is right or wrong? In partic... |
423f5979-4032-4f5f-b129-1de4230c8677 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW Update 2018-07-27 – Sharing Drafts
Most of our current work continues to be on making the codebase theme-able, so that AlignmentForum and the upcoming new EA Forum can easily be re-styled.
However, we've got a new feature that I'm hoping will (eventually) play a significant role in changing how people use LessWron... |
d3f468af-5711-4af9-8d91-a83826bc06ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DeepMind: Model evaluation for extreme risks
> Current approaches to building general-purpose AI systems tend to produce systems with both beneficial and harmful capabilities. Further progress in AI development could lead to capabilities that pose extreme risks, such as offensive cyber capabilities or strong manipulat... |
2256e54f-ef86-461b-94b6-6cd717e3e8c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ideas for studies on AGI risk
This post from a few days ago brought up the lack of preeminent AI papers on the topic of AI risk. The lack of such peer-reviewed studies is often brought up by critics as a way to dismiss the worries, so I'd like to consider, what are possible avenues to work on some pieces or the entire... |
e9bb227a-8d2b-432c-9d8b-22751020bf02 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Oversight of Unsafe Systems via Dynamic Safety Envelopes
|
6831ce7a-1466-4690-8cae-d3a92cfbede5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Difference Between Classical, Evidential, and Timeless Decision Theories
I couldn't find any concise explanation of what the decision theories are. Here's mine:
A Causal Decision Theorist wins, given what's happened so far.
An Evidential Decision Theorist wins, given what they know.
A Timeless Decision Theorist... |
98907884-ba8c-470b-8f07-9665b6e6ed07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learning how to learn
Introduction
The skill of learning things fast and well is phenomenally valuable. It serves as a force multiplier on almost everything you’ll do later in life, and I think it is worth invest a ton of effort into cultivating and developing. Getting better at learning is one of the most valuable t... |
50e03baa-9267-4412-b82f-24d5a22f7b24 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Durham, NC: Do you even predict?
Discussion article for the meetup : Durham, NC: Do you even predict?
WHEN: 16 April 2015 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 420 W Geer St., Durham NC 27701
So we can work on calibration, but what is it good for if we don't make predictions in everyday life? This recent post from Jul... |
7e387421-e9ad-445f-84bb-890756aede0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Corrigibility at some small length" by dath ilan
Although this appears to be some sort of fictional role-playing server, I quite like the explanation of corrigibility given. It is clearly a direct reference to the AI alignment problem. They even included a tl;dr, which I included at the bottom of the post.
It covers... |
84203834-92bd-477b-a359-b4f6c3f3281f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gorges of gender on a terrain of traits
Among human populations I'm familiar with, all of these variables of appearance positively correlate:
* hair length
* chest protrusion
* proportion of body fat at hips
* negative facial height
* absence of facial hair
* voice pitch
There are more variables clearly correl... |
f1e47be6-193d-4f59-af13-aa1e39357939 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If it seems intuitive, you're not building intuition
Epistemic status: I'm describing a problem I have, which probably has an existing solution.
1.
Let's say you're reading an article, and there's one sentence in particular that doesn't stick out to you. The sentence seems intuitive, so your eyes slide over it and c... |
037d5c8e-88d7-4595-826c-010cf15c916c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Learning State Representations from Random Deep Action-Conditional Predictions.
1 Introduction
---------------
Providing auxiliary tasks to Deep Reinforcement Learning (Deep RL) agents has become an important class of methods for driving the learning of state representations that accelerate learning on a main task.... |
5cff7724-678a-40c5-8e94-a47480fd580d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Drawing Less Wrong: Technical Skill
The ability to observe is probably at least 2/3rds of what separates non-artists from amateur artists. But those 2/3rds are near-useless without the ability to move your pencil the way your eyes want to it to go. And once you've transitioned into an amateur artist, around 9,000 hour... |
a5154af2-f631-4923-a6b9-b3642562ad32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Talking to Congress: Can constituents contacting their legislator influence policy?
Summary and Key Takeaways
* The basic case: Contacting your legislator1 is low hanging fruit: it can be done in a relatively short amount of time, is relatively easy, and could have an impact. Each communication is not guaranteed to b... |
1e252dcc-4ef7-46f1-b81c-544c29f11b8b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Defending Against Neural Fake News
1 Introduction
---------------
Figure 1: In this paper, we explore Grover, a model which can detect *and generate* neural fake news. Humans find the articles difficult to distinguish from “re... |
ea7d56ca-af6d-42d7-a70c-411ee057b21f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Iraq is so violent
Thought this might be an interesting topic for you all.
THE CAUSES OF VIOLENCE IN IRAQ
Iraq has struggled with internal violence for most of its history post-independence. 4 coups occurred between independence and Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship, about 1 per decade. This unstable period ended no... |
351f930b-6367-45b7-8baf-86cb95c9be20 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "It has now been just shy of three years since the first Alignment Newsletter was published. I figure it’s time for an update to the one-year retrospective, and another very short survey. Please take the survey! The mandatory questions take just 2 minutes!This retrospective is a lot less interesting than the last one, ... |
8806dce7-2d6f-4881-aa87-897b8c0eefb1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Solving Newcomb's Paradox In Real Life
I noticed we now live in a world where we can run Newcomb's problem as an actual experiment, so I ran the experiment!
Roleplaying as the predictor in the Newcomb problem (with an LLM as the "decision maker") finally made me grok why one-boxing is the correct solution to the ori... |
3bab545f-b31a-46b9-8e79-705d28f8c9dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sherlockian Abduction Master List
[Radically updated with many new entries around 07/10/24]
Epistemic status: The List has been tested in the real world by me (with mixed results) and extensively checked for errors by many commenters. The Background section is mostly speculation and anecdotes, feel free to skip to T... |
d90eb4fa-0e56-43c0-82e7-8aa7caad2a7d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | The Impact of Network Connectivity on Collective Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
Reasoning about collective behaviours in autonomous systems can be difficult when the system-level behaviour emerges from local-level interactions, i.e., between individual agents.
Due to the complexity of such systems we often... |
0fc328ee-076e-4ea8-b153-0c9d358d7f9a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Specification failure
I got made a moderator recently, and noticed that I have the amazing ability to ban my own comments. For added efficiency/hilarity I can even do it from my own user page, now complete with nifty "ban" links! I thought it would be neat to publicize this bug before it gets fixed, because it makes f... |
7368d5ce-8092-4be8-8bda-4b2d828b60e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Double-Feature on The Extropians
Link-post for two pieces I just wrote on the Extropians.
The Extropians were an online group of techno-optimist transhumanist libertarians active in the 90s who influence a lot of online intellectual culture today. Prominent members include Eliezer Yudkowsky, Nick Bostrom, Robin Han... |
3198a49e-f659-40a2-96f6-0697b02c1ce4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Alignment Newsletter #11: 06/18/18
Turns out the survey link in the last email was broken, sorry about that and thanks to everyone who reported it to me. Here's the correct [link](https://goo.gl/forms/rIkTZkHD4IolYE4E2).
**Highlights**
--------------
**[Learning to Follow Language Instructions with Adversarial R... |
20dee104-54cf-4ff3-bfbf-0d099fe6f877 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 66: Self Actualization, Pt 1
Hessitation iss alwayss eassy, rarely usseful.
So the Defense Professor had told him; and while you could quibble about the details of the proverb, Harry understood the weaknesses of Ravenclaws well enough to know that you had to try answering your own quibbles. Did some plans cal... |
5a012015-bbe3-4289-8adb-f40859cda2d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [ASoT] Searching for consequentialist structure
Editor’s note: I’m experimenting with having a lower quality threshold for just posting things even while I’m still confused and unconfident about my conclusions, but with this disclaimer at the top. Thanks to Kyle and Laria for discussions.
In “Searching for Bayes Stru... |
eeba6e80-0b96-4caf-ab03-20c4f9d6ac10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Truly Part of You
Today's post, Truly Part Of You was originally published on 21 November 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Any time you believe you've learned something, you should ask yourself, "Could I re-generate this knowledge if it were somehow deleted from my mind, and how would I do s... |
d2b7d923-9578-45a3-9e04-2b93405cc9dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup: February
Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne Social Meetup: February
WHEN: 24 February 2017 06:30:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: The Bull and Bear Tavern, Flinders Lane, Melbourne
Come along for this month's Social Meetup, now on the exciting new schedule of the fourth Friday of the... |
9273a94f-ba53-455d-b91f-9dc5df2ce4be | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post36
tl;dr: Even if we can't solve alignment, we can solve the problem of catching and fixing misalignment. If a child is bowling for the first time, and they just aim at the pins and throw, they’re almost certain to miss. Their ball will fall into one of the gutters. But if there were beginners’ bumpers in plac... |
4c8ef7bd-94f9-4098-ac2e-ef3be498cf16 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | The religion problem in AI alignment
AI alignment research has a religion problem – specifically, a big blind spot when it comes to modeling and aligning the human values associated with organized religions.
The blind spot arises because many Artificial Intelligence (AI) researchers and Effective Altruists (EAs) are ... |
8e5efa54-6014-406f-8701-8bfd64743d88 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on good judgement and how to develop it (80,000 Hours)
This post by 80,000 hours struck me as more than usually relevant to my interests in developing the art of rationality. It doesn't really say anything new, but it does provide a decent summary of a frame that I think is an important subset of epistemic ratio... |
32f81543-2662-4f11-b9ff-d30783f3824b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is Confidence—in Game Theory and Life?
Confidence is multifaceted and plays out in our lives in different ways. We can feel confident, we can confide in others, we can try to bolster our own self-confidence. But what is it really? Game Theory suggests that confidence has a lot to do with our trust in others. I’d ... |
01dbd43e-7329-4b4c-8d1f-566a3863d5d7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What will happen with real estate prices during a slow takeoff?
This is motivated by How to make money off of AGI. One of the predictions made there (and elsewhere) is that interest rates are going to go up a lot as growth starts to accelerate, and thus it's a good move to take a loan at low fixed rates now. However, ... |
9d711426-a2f0-44ee-85d6-b4a5725bdfcd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | How (not) to choose a research project
Background
==========
*(specific information will be sparse here. This is meant to give context for the Takeaways section of the post)*
Our group (Garrett, Chu, and Johannes) have worked with John Wentworth in the [SERI MATS](https://www.serimats.org/) ~~2 Electric Boogaloo~~ p... |
9e6f5960-95d8-41f1-b398-953808f9aeb2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evolution as Backstop for Reinforcement Learning: multi-level paradigms
|
a975c39d-c5e6-4e32-a0c9-6d6fb0bca16b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Less Wrong Cambridge (MA) third-Sundays meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Less Wrong Cambridge (MA) third-Sundays meetup
WHEN: 17 June 2012 02:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 25 Ames St, Cambridge, MA 02139
Cambridge/Boston-area Less Wrong meetups on the first and third Sunday of every month, 2pm at the MI... |
9725c2f3-8556-4d30-ac9b-ebfa6d243904 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ELK First Round Contest Winners
Thank you to all those who have submitted proposals to the ELK proposal competition. We have evaluated all proposals submitted before January 14th[1]. Decisions are still being made on proposals submitted after January 14th.
The deadline for submissions is February 15th, after which we... |
f4998777-f29d-4f01-94e8-4d20fbc392d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread: September 2009
I declare this Open Thread open for discussion of Less Wrong topics that have not appeared in recent posts. |
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