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38f5a016-7d14-407d-9466-d0b29d26aeab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Gaoxing Guy
August 2016: Jiuzhaigou, Sichuan Province, China[^maybe it should be timespace instead of spacetime, better to put the time first, what if the place identifier no longer exists? Plus timestamps are orderable.]
Cab driver in front, me in back of cab. Awful traffic from Jiuzhaigou, after a long day of the m... |
a899419f-de6e-4f8f-8e18-f8ca4ebb4011 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Superintelligence and wireheading
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
tl;dr: Even utility-based agents may wirehead if sub-pieces of the algorithm develop greatly improved capabilities, rather than the agent as a whole.
Please let me know if I'm treading on already familiar ground.
I had a vague impress... |
6920d9d4-d3fb-49bc-87f9-93ef25641a8a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Introduction to Reinforcement Learning for Understanding Infra-Bayesianism
Introduction
The goal of this post is to give a summary of classical reinforcement learning theory that primes the reader to learn about infra-Bayesianism, which is a new framework for reinforcement learning that aims to solve problems relat... |
9ef78799-66bb-4b96-92c1-c23c4611acb9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Popular papers to be scrutinized?
Inspired by Alexey Guzey's criticism of Matthew Walker's Why We Sleep, as well as the SSC criticisms of The Seven Principles of Marriage I was wondering if anyone had some good ideas for papers/ books that should be looked at more closely.
They should be popular/influential pieces of... |
14aa955c-0886-41d6-b8fd-184d6267bd7d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On alien science
In his book The Fabric of Reality, David Deutsch makes the case that science is about coming up with good and true explanations, with all other considerations being secondary. This clashes with the more conventional view that the goal of science is to allow us to make accurate predictions - see for ex... |
c8ef38cd-fac7-4f2f-be99-78c3d9d4bd73 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Alignment Newsletter #18
**Highlights**
**[Learning Dexterity](https://blog.openai.com/learning-dexterity/)** *(Many people at OpenAI)*: Most current experiments with robotics work on relatively small state spaces (think 7 degrees of freedom, each a real number) and are trained in simulation. If we could throw a lot ... |
c4332dcc-d984-4e58-91ea-790681766692 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How To Get Into Independent Research On Alignment/Agency
I’m an independent researcher working on AI alignment and the theory of agency. I’m 29 years old, will make about $90k this year, and set my own research agenda. I deal with basically zero academic bullshit - my grant applications each take about one day’s atten... |
ebd613a8-55f8-4bd5-a53b-f26a77e63b9f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Emotional valence as cognition mutator (not a bug, but a feature)
Maybe because of my neurotype I view it important that I have good general way of handling things. I noticed a a pattern where people would process seemingly similar requests very differently and got curious whether there is an actual difference or are ... |
ba8b1856-0116-426b-aab4-4e204befd792 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Neural Guided Constraint Logic Programming for Program Synthesis
1 Introduction
---------------
Program synthesis is a classic area of artificial intelligence
that has captured the imagination of many computer scientists.
Programming by Example (PBE) is one way to formulate
program synthesis problems, where example... |
fe649b8e-d78d-4efc-a33c-9c62806eab23 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | For every choice of AGI difficulty, conditioning on gradual take-off implies shorter timelines.
Alternate titles: Deconfusing Take-off; Taboo “Fast” and “Slow” Take-off.
This post has two main purposes:
1. To suggest that we taboo the terms "fast" and "slow" take-off in favour of **"gradual"** and **"sudden"** take... |
c3f8597d-1f66-40a7-9031-b79f34100ff0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How about testing our ideas?
Related to: Science: Do It Yourself, How To Fix Science, Rationality and Science posts from this sequence, Cargo Cult Science, "citizen science"
You think you have a good map, what you really have is a working hypothesis
You did some thought on human rationality, perhaps spurred by int... |
6fded248-91bb-48cd-bee2-5d941587267e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Drawn Out: a story
Note: this story shouldn’t be interpreted as anywhere near realistic. It’s way too anthropomorphic, and intended to be a work of fiction not prediction—although hopefully it will spark some interesting ideas, like good fiction often does.
> Will he make many supplications unto thee? will he speak s... |
7364b62a-8f5e-4fe5-a616-f4d11c493d4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How does bee learning compare with machine learning?
This is a write-up of work I did as an Open Philanthropy intern. However, the conclusions don't necessarily reflect Open Phil's institutional view.
Abstract
This post investigates the biological anchor framework for thinking about AI timelines, as espoused by Ajey... |
24fb52a4-5383-40dc-ad66-78b8fa5c33f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inner Ring as Adversary
Inner rings, as described in CS Lewis's lecture about them, structurally orient around a kind of evasiveness. In this Twitter thread, Venkatesh Rao somehow evades something extremely explicit and basic in Lewis's description, but correctly criticizes Lewis for his own kind of evasion of a sort ... |
a96d2c28-a64c-49bb-9c28-48b688360f4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Metastrategy get-started guide
I was at LessOnline. The thing that got me most excited was attending @Raemon’s very abridged Metastrategy workshop. To my lack of surprise, he has written up the general idea already, but that report focuses on people’s response to trying fractal strategy and I would not have found it v... |
89546d17-b93e-468b-a926-e15a5c515c4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why we need prosocial agents
Context: I recently submitted an application to the Open Philanthropy AI Fellowship, and ended up thinking a lot about why studying Multi-Agent Interactions is important.
To build machine-learning systems (agents) that are useful in the real world, they need to be able to cooperate with ... |
8b24d2de-34a9-4237-8ba8-10470b501e5e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Acausal normalcy
*This post is also available on* [*LessWrong*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3RSq3bfnzuL3sp46J/acausal-normalcy)*.*
**Summary:** Having thought a bunch about acausal trade — and proven some theorems relevant to its feasibility — I believe there *do not exist* powerful information hazards about it t... |
46fc6882-c536-4d56-b01d-9a26846c9376 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | To know or not to know
We are on the brink of the unimaginable. Humanity is about to cross a threshold that will redefine life as we know it: the creation of intelligence surpassing our own. This is not science fiction—it’s unfolding right now, within our lifetimes. The ripple effects of this seismic event will alter ... |
780b6bea-2e85-4154-9449-458e18f2c4e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Effective Altruism Summit is One Month Away
This is a followup to Ben's post announcing the 2014 EA Summit.
The Effective Altruism Summit is now exactly one month away.
This year, 175 EAs will gather in Berkeley, CA for a two-day conference -- the largest gathering of people in the EA movement to date.
We still ha... |
b058ed04-6652-489a-a1c0-1b4214d1ca65 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Supervised Program for Alignment Research (SPAR) at UC Berkeley: Spring 2023 summary
In Spring 2023, the [Berkeley AI Safety Initiative for Students](https://berkeleyaisafety.com/) (BASIS) organized an alignment research program for students, drawing inspiration from similar programs by [Stanford AI Alignment](https:/... |
6f6b9be6-5391-44b4-b158-1051dd135ed7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Help ARC evaluate capabilities of current language models (still need people)
**Still looking for people as of Sep 9th 2022**
I (Beth) am looking for 3-10 new contractors to work with me and my existing team of 3-4 contractors/interns on probing model capabilities to evaluate how close models are to being able to suc... |
47f21bdf-6bb3-4110-940c-aabefbd9267d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Introductory resources on AI safety research
[See [AI Safety Resources](https://vkrakovna.wordpress.com/ai-safety-resources/) for the most recent version of this list.]
Reading list to get up to speed on the main ideas in the field of long-term AI safety. The resources are selected for relevance and/or brevity, and ... |
3f6df0b8-a14c-4f5b-800a-31a5faa8275a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kansas City Dojo meetup 11-12-19
I.) POST MORTEM OF PREVIOUS MEETING
We discuss the situation from last meeting, when a newcomer and non-rationalist showed up and got into a testy argument with Life Engineer. We concluded that it was primarily a matter of conflicting expectations; the newcomer was expecting a more "s... |
344067d3-1925-4be7-b103-f5e1f3d6c110 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Interpreting AI compute trends
*This is a guest post by Ryan Carey, 10 July 2018.*
Over the last few years, we know that AI experiments have used much more computation than previously. But just last month, an [investigation by OpenAI](https://blog.openai.com/ai-and-compute/) made some initial estimates of just how f... |
5f8f398c-2ec8-40f0-999c-f3618670aa09 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Newcomb's Problem: A problem for Causal Decision Theories
This is part of a sequence titled, "Introduction to decision theory"
The previous post is "An introduction to decision theory"
In the previous post I introduced evidential and causal decision theories. The principle question that needs resolving with re... |
c35a5e8d-a375-4706-97d1-a80ce8342d78 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Final cause is epistemologically primary, but efficient cause is metaphysically primary
(or, while final cause can be best for your map, efficient cause is the primary out in the territory)
Describing a phenomenon in terms of final cause is often the most useful and effective way to explain the given phenomenon for o... |
dc4886ba-f9a3-45d3-ad25-3fbbc4fab9db | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What weird beliefs do you have?
We know that mainstream thinking gets a lot of things wrong. Many of us have experienced being mocked because of our concern for AI extinction-risk. There are plenty of other examples of times where now well-evidenced beliefs were seen as crazy in some way. This post was prompted by my... |
6af03c3e-a32c-4d8a-b509-d48f75191533 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chance that "AI safety basically [doesn't need] to be solved, we’ll just solve it by default unless we’re completely completely careless"
As part of the 2020 Effective Altruism Student Summit, AI safety researcher Buck Shlegeris advised newcomers to "think through the entire problem," determining what the concrete dan... |
ed5584ad-1167-4712-ac35-85493904f101 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Blindspot in Sport’s Data-Driven Age
In today’s world of sports, we’re seeing a rapid rise in the use of technology, both among amateur enthusiasts and professional teams. This growth involves everything from data acquisition to predictive algorithms. On one side, amateur athletes invest in wearable gadgets that track... |
ff3011b4-5cd5-42c9-b88c-416b52f30052 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Has Van Horn fixed Cox’s theorem?
What do you think about Kevin S. Van Horn’s formulation of probability as extended logic? It looks interesting because it doesn’t seem to rely on the not-so-intuitive Universality axiom, removing which leads to Halpern’s counter-example, or conventions, axioms/desiderata which are not... |
b408202c-477c-43f5-90bc-9eeb495869f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Actions and Flows
What is an action?
Well, they do things. What does that mean? It means something starts out some way and changes. Old states become new ones.
Given a transition map T: a x s -> s, we can rewrite it as a -> (s -> s). This means actions can be seen as maps between states, so we say act: state → state... |
5d0fc80e-8289-4b40-b64c-a0c1466775dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Modernization and arms control don’t have to be enemies.
On a recent panel on nuclear modernization and arms control at Brookings, there were a few points made about the potential synergies between arms control and modernization.
While modernization and arms control seem contradictory, it really depends on what you a... |
559db763-7697-43f5-b03b-6ae69fb205f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can we make peace with moral indeterminacy?
The problem:
Put humans in the ancestral environment, and they'll behave as if they like nutrition and reproducing. Put them in the modern environment, and they'll behave as if they like tasty food and good feelings. Pump heroin into their brains, and they'll behave as if t... |
83ec1351-cb68-4b9b-bae5-a23835cee127 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationalising humans: another mugging, but not Pascal's
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Crossposted at the Intelligent Agents Forum.
In a previous post, I used the (p,R) model to show how a value-learning agent might pull a Pascal's mugging on humans: it would change the human reward into so... |
67e31b57-861e-4e94-9bca-3bbb352a1477 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Need advice] Likely consequences of disclosing you have Asperger's Syndrome - given you have a 2.5 years gap in your resume?
Background
A few years ago I (was forced to) left grad school (halfway into it) because of complications related to a set of anxiety disorders (a typical comorbidity in Autism Spectrum Disorde... |
50987b39-587f-4824-b4c8-96c4ce8e7c2a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Survey Results
Followup to: Excuse Me, Would You Like to Take a Survey?, Return of the Survey
Thank you to everyone who took the Less Wrong survey. I've calculated some results out on SPSS, and I've uploaded the data for anyone who wants it. I removed twelve people who wanted to remain private, removed a few people's... |
37651434-2921-4745-ab89-a77f4c7ba628 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Overpaying for happiness?
Happy New Year, everyone!
In the past few months I've been thinking several thoughts that all seem to point in the same direction:
1) People who live in developed Western countries usually make and spend much more money than people in poorer countries, but aren't that much happier. It feels... |
cb87934b-9fdb-4e0e-ab16-5e7ac4aaac7e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Updateless anthropics
Three weeks ago, I set out to find a new theory of anthropics, to try and set decision theory on a firm footing with respect to copying, deleting copies, merging them, correlated decisions, and the presence or absence of extra observers. I've since come full circle, and realised that UDT already ... |
51329f52-20be-4478-9b93-d3f069aafed0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evidence under Adversarial Conditions
I recently noticed similarities between how I decide what stock market evidence to look at, and how the legal system decides what lawyers are allowed to tell juries.
This post will elaborate on Eliezer's Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence. In particular, I'll ... |
c1e23f8f-50b8-42a5-adc4-2739780f4bb9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Straw Hufflepuffs and Lone Heroes
I was hoping the next Project Hufflepuff post would involve more "explain concretely what I think we should do", but as it turns out I'm still hashing out some thoughts about that. In the meanwhile, this is the post I actually have ready to go, which is as good as any to post for now.... |
6f32a441-a0e6-473c-9172-438229964b66 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seth Explains Consciousness
The Real Problem
For as long as there have been philosophers, they loved philosophizing about what life really is. Plato focused on nutrition and reproduction as the core features of living organisms. Aristotle claimed that it was ultimately about resisting perturbations. In the East the fo... |
603293f2-c995-45ca-b906-9311087d02c3 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Much of the difficulty in making progress on AI safety comes from the lack of useful feedback loops. We do not have a superintelligent AI to run tests on and by the time we do, it will probably be too late. This means we have to resort to using proxies. In this post, I will highlight what I think are the four most use... |
cce5997c-adf4-40d7-8705-987c3a2496fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC projects planning meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC projects planning meetup
WHEN: 16 June 2013 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC 20001, USA (courtyard)
This meetup, we'll be meeting to figure out what projects we want to do together, in... |
e1cf8da0-adda-4df4-84cb-0ba1efd728fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Strict Dominance for the Modified Demski Prior
I previously noted that difficulties with the modified Demski prior were less than previously thought: I was failing to distinguish between the two different kinds of update. Here, I analyze more fully what it succeeds at.
----------------------------------------
In ord... |
66620820-aaa1-4e83-bdb1-d8063267572a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Alignment" is one of six words of the year in the Harvard Gazette
To my knowledge, the Gazette's words of the year are nominated and voted on by Harvard faculty. This year's words were Disruption, Combustible, Resilience, Heat, Alignment, and Hope. Here's what they wrote about alignment:
> Isaac Kohane, Chair, Depar... |
c05a2f82-9c8d-4e7e-b868-7bb1a2f6af9d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : RTLW HPMoR discussion, chapters 39-43
Discussion article for the meetup : RTLW HPMoR discussion, chapters 39-43
WHEN: 23 February 2013 11:00:00AM (-0500)
WHERE: 2706 Durham-Chapel Hill Blvd., Durham NC 27707
Let's meet at Guglhupf for coffee, breakfast, and discussion of HPMoR 39-43. Actually Doing the Rea... |
2abe928f-2e91-4038-ae79-3317fb763410 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #78: Some Welcome Calm
SB 1047 has been amended once more, with both strict improvements and big compromises. I cover the changes, and answer objections to the bill, in my extensive Guide to SB 1047. I follow that up here with reactions to the changes and some thoughts on where the debate goes from here. Ultimately... |
f4410c42-3b38-4332-a38a-75200bd407ed | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Why some people believe in AGI, but I don't.
I have learned a lot since my posts on the EA and LessWrong forums in response to the call from the **Future Fund Worldview Prize.** Ireceived many insightful comments from people who just didn't want to give up on the idea of AGI. I decided to briefly summarise the main ar... |
51a6b56e-f4e7-4624-b242-7cd2b5fe5eb2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The EMH Aten't Dead
Cross-posting from my personal blog, but written primarily for Less Wrong after recent discussion here.
----------------------------------------
There are whispers that the Efficient-Market Hypothesis is dead. Eliezer's faith has been shaken. Scott says EMH may have been the real victim of the co... |
e6eecd75-5e70-4d3e-a063-91ba94c80024 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Boundaries-based security and AI safety approaches
[This part 3 of a 5 part sequence on security and cryptography areas relevant for AI safety, published and linked here a few days apart. Edit: There is now a more in-depth version of this post available here: Digital Defense]
There is a long-standing computer securit... |
198634b1-1529-4be7-b1d2-1a6acfe7b2a7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Interpretable Reinforcement Learning with Ensemble Methods
1 Introduction
---------------
Reinforcement learning continues to break bounds on what we even thought possible, recently with AlphaGo’s triumph over leading Go player Lee Sedol and with the further successes of AlphaGoZero, which surpassed AlphaGo learnin... |
c1824dba-1833-49bf-8e4d-bd0e13a99205 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Inefficiencies in Pharmaceutical Research Practices
Epistemic status: I'm attempting to relate my observations, as well as some of those shared with me by my coworkers at the small CRO[1] where I work. I will try to make the distinction clear between object-level observations and speculative interpretations of the for... |
66032e3a-89d1-4998-8cc6-d43037fd9d35 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Algorithmic Intent: A Hansonian Generalized Anti-Zombie Principle
> "Why didn't you tell him the truth? Were you afraid?"
>
> "I'm not afraid. I chose not to tell him, because I anticipated negative consequences if I did so."
>
> "What do you think 'fear' is, exactly?"
The Generalized Anti-Zombie Principle calls fo... |
bacf9e19-f377-484f-9d80-093697a22737 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Appeal to AI Superintelligence: Reasons to Preserve Humanity
James D. Miller,[1] Olle Häggström,[2] Roman Yampolskiy,[3] and Alexander F. Miller[4]
Dear Computer Superintelligence,[5]
Please spare humanity. Y... |
9a162c25-cae8-4422-b110-0ab7d6a39e81 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Preliminary prices for human-level hardware
*By Katja Grace, 4 April 2015*
Computer hardware has been getting cheap now for about [seventy five years](http://aiimpacts.org/trends-in-the-cost-of-computing/ "Trends in the cost of computing"). Relatedly, large computing projects can afford to be [increasingly large](ht... |
c785d1e6-4370-4bb7-b4fc-c50daa5eadd2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Dutch-Booking CDT: Revised Argument
*This post has benefited greatly from discussion with Sam Eisenstat, Caspar Oesterheld, and Daniel Kokotajlo.*
[Last year, I wrote a post](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/fgHSwxFitysGKHH56/p/wkNQdYj47HX33noKv) claiming there was a Dutch Book against CDTs whose counterfactual expectati... |
de4df279-0e1d-4989-86a2-0f84c9e72ee6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are there any prediction markets for Covid-19?
What it says on the title.
Are there any prediction markets around where one can bet money on things such as the total amount of confirmed Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. by June, the date on which a vaccine will be released to the public, whether hydroxychloroquine is a via... |
80ea8337-7357-4407-b731-816ccf65eeb7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Montreal LessWrong - Return from summer break
Discussion article for the meetup : Montreal LessWrong - Return from summer break
WHEN: 01 October 2013 06:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
After taking a break for the summer, Montreal LessWrong is once again going to start meetin... |
44b7c63a-609c-4cf7-96cb-5b381b8e7827 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Map and Territory: Summary and Thoughts
This is the first post in a sequence of posts summarizing Rationality From AI to Zombies.
Rationality, probability theory, and decision theory
Some words are hard to define, but you still have a good sense of what they mean. I've always felt like that about the term "rationali... |
9e2cced3-695b-4cf3-bfe8-6eb0c44ca7fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scenarios and Warning Signs for Ajeya's Aggressive, Conservative, and Best Guess AI Timelines
Epistemic status: mild confidence that this provides interesting discussion and debate.
Credits to (in no particular order) Mark Xu, Sydney Von Arx, Jack Ryan, Sidney Hough, Kuhan Jeyapragasan, and Pranay Mittal for resource... |
350ed1ab-93dd-4b48-a8ba-64cef243aca5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Confusions in My Model of AI Risk
A lot of [the reason I am worried about AI](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/k8hvGAJWSKAeHwpnJ/why-i-m-worried-about-ai) comes from the development of optimizers that have goals which don’t align with what humans want. However, I am also pretty confused about the specifics here, especi... |
740a488b-3011-403a-a6d7-bd3538f4121d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Approximability
I've maintained a consistent focus on the approximable when it comes to idealized theories of intelligence. I don't care much how long it takes to converge, but if there \emph{is} no convergent approximation, I figure all bets are off. This is somewhat nonstandard.
There are many levels at which we co... |
febe779c-5bfc-45e6-a56a-a946937f4463 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A possible preference algorithm
I have previously discussed the constructive process of generating a reward function from the mess of human preferences.
But, let's be honest, that process was somewhat messy and ad hoc. It used things like "partial preferences", "identity preferences", "one step hypotheticals", "parti... |
65b3b210-9b81-48ba-9afc-35ce9afd0246 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In response to critiques of Guaranteed Safe AI
In this post, I discuss a number of critiques of Guaranteed Safe AI (GSAI) approaches I’ve encountered since releasing this position paper.
The critiques I’m responding to here are taken from a range of places, including personal conversations and social media. The two... |
99d3a271-c01a-4a5e-8004-239a42e675fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do humans derive values from fictitious imputed coherence?
[Metadata: crossposted from https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2022/11/do-humans-derive-values-from-fictitious.html. First completed November 1, 2022. This essay is more like research notes than exposition, so context may be missing, the use of terms may change acros... |
5527d1c2-98c7-4ba6-b59f-a79280e73f43 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hacker-AI – Does it already exist?
In its simplest version: Hacker-AI (Type I) uses AI for hacking arbitrary IT systems, i.e., finding vulnerabilities automatically, e.g., elevating privileges/user roles (sys-admin or system), stealing encryption keys, hiding attacking tools from being detected, or creating code that ... |
085ab88f-bcd6-467f-b222-e80177f26676 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | One way to manipulate your level of abstraction related to a task
In construal level theory, ideas can be classified along a spectrum from concrete ("near" in Robin Hanson's terminology) to abstract ("far"). As a summary, here is the abstract from a 2010 review (pdf):
> People are capable of thinking about the futur... |
6c88d513-5eba-4a18-b0d1-f9bf0e9cc73b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I think that teaching philosophy is high impact
Crossposted from the EA Forum: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9cCyPE2EDpjpJvqnF/why-i-think-that-teaching-philosophy-is-high-impact
I wrote this post quickly because it's better to share an imperfect post than to never write anything at all.
In a... |
aa221b3d-019f-4660-928d-59c475464f71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] (EA Podcast) Social Status: The Key to the Matrix Part III
A new episode of Global Optimum has been released! Global Optimum is a podcast aimed at making altruists more effective. This episode is about social status, hypocrisy, signaling, hormones, and politics.
This episode features:
-Why does men’s testoste... |
0f0a0265-44d5-4f50-89ec-ded2d3808ffb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Request for community insight
Hi LW. I think that this community's insight could help me with my problem. I may have an undiagnosed medical condition, and I wanted to present it here in order to get some ideas, either on what it is, or what I should try to do to figure it out.
I'm a relatively active and relatively h... |
c9c165ee-6cf2-4f8f-9cde-d1ddc39f4eb0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book review: Sleight of Mind (Matt Cook)
This book covers a range of science and mathematics topics by focusing on paradoxes — surprising results, or seeming contradictions. This is an effective way to quickly give a taste, and a few deeper results, across a range of areas. (Chapter list included below.)
Such a range... |
b377b3d6-4d40-48b1-a522-f32bdec80eb9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Abstract model of human bias
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
Any suggestions for refining this model are welcome!
Somewhat inspired by the previous post, this is a model of human bias that can be used to test theories that want to compute the "true" human preferences. The basic idea is to formalise t... |
5a8264e1-196e-43e7-9b70-886d29d821f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What achievements have people claimed will be warning signs for AGI?
In MIRI's March newsletter, they link this post which argues against the importance of AI safety because we haven't yet achieved a number of "canaries in the coal mines of AI". The post lists:
* The automatic formulation of learning problems
* Sel... |
c0533ed0-6e7e-40cf-96e7-d714ba2d2bd2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | The Social Science of Computerized Brains – Review of The Age of Em: Work, Love, and Life When Robots Rule the Earth by Robin Hanson (Oxford University Press, 2016)
Introduction The Age of Em: Work, Love, and Life When Robots Rule the Earth by Robin Hanson discusses the possibility of "uploading" human minds into comp... |
84139b67-58bb-42e9-8886-8c6c8c9a7e60 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | The first AI Safety Camp & onwards
*by Remmelt Ellen and Linda Linsefors*
#### Summary
Last month, 5 teams of up-and-coming researchers gathered to solve concrete problems in AI-alignment at our 10-day AI safety research camp in Gran Canaria.
This post describes
* the event format we came up with
* our experie... |
b4f765b3-bade-4650-9312-27b37bb6926f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why learning programming is a great idea even if you'd never want to code for a living
Here is the short version:
> Writing program code is a good way of debugging your thinking -- Bill Venables
It's short, apt, and to the point. It does have a significant flaw: it uses a term I've come to hate, "bug". I don't know i... |
e6e98818-5aad-4230-8671-13e8cf4e7c37 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | John Baez on Research Tactics
[John Baez](http://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/) is a professor of mathematics at U.C. Riverside. Until recently he worked on higher category theory and quantum gravity. His internet column [This Week’s Fin... |
3733847d-dd5e-4a2a-b044-8b6c46913d5a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread February 2019
If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, you can put it here.
Also, if you are new to LessWrong and want to introduce yourself, this is the place to do it. Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us and what you hope to get from the site and community ... |
26926b13-4388-4abc-aedf-ba70040fa27d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Building as gardening
Since I’ve been interviewing other builders for the niche design zine, I've noticed a few recurring patterns. One is “building as gardening” which seems like a healthier way to build software in our age.
This is how Cab of Are.na described to me this approach:
> You can be like “we’ve got to pl... |
9ab37b5b-976f-4616-8f23-8a8d80654430 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "A powerful AI (or human-AI civilization) guided by wrong philosophical ideas would likely cause astronomical (or beyond astronomical) waste. Solving metaphilosophy is one way in which we can hope to avoid this kind of disaster. For my previous thoughts on this topic and further motivation see Metaphilosophical Mysteri... |
8ada1cbe-6746-4bac-9f65-547c91b357e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 5,000 calories of peanut butter every week for 3 years straight
decided to lose weight. should be easy considering I haven't changed my diet in years and eat the same thing everyday.
----------------------------------------
breakfast: quarter cup each of black beans, kidney beans, and garbanzo beans; quarter cup of ... |
92ff0ccc-d369-4e6a-bae3-683aa5948b05 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bengio's Alignment Proposal: "Towards a Cautious Scientist AI with Convergent Safety Bounds"
Yoshua Bengio recently posted a high-level overview of his alignment research agenda on his blog. I'm pasting the full text below since it's fairly short.
> What can’t we afford with a future superintelligent AI? Among others... |
e5aafa49-357e-484a-81d4-bd471d37fa3b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ten arguments that AI is an existential risk
You can read Ten arguments that AI is an existential risk by Nathan Young and I at the AI Impacts Blog. |
296e1b6b-129d-48e2-9f87-4e0ac4e2773b | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post1799
(Post now available as a pdf: https://arxiv.org/abs/2212.11415 ) TL;DR: Unaligned AI will have a convergent instrumental incentive to make its thoughts difficult for us to interpret. In this article, I discuss many ways that a capable AI might circumvent scalable interpretability methods and suggest a fr... |
a5612c35-5ae6-40ae-8089-e01bc5a5a42f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Special Status Needs Special Support
I just recorded another BHTV with Adam Frank, though it's not out yet, and I had a thought that seems worth recording. At a certain point in the dialogue, Adam Frank was praising the wisdom and poetry in religion. I retorted, "Tolkien's got great poetry, and some parts that are w... |
03319d40-ad41-4395-b583-880339a71c4c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Clarifying "AI Alignment"
When I say an AI A is aligned with an operator H, I mean:
> A is trying to do what H wants it to do.
The “alignment problem” is the problem of building powerful AI systems that are aligned with their operators.
This is significantly narrower than some other definitions of the alignment pro... |
c4323456-be7d-4d1e-bc92-7a0b6d2979fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In Most Markets, Lower Risk Means Higher Reward
The age old adage that high risk is associated with high expected return has not been true in the U.S. stock market, at least when using the academic standard of measuring risk with the either beta or standard deviation of returns. This claim is one of plain numbers, so ... |
90cc902c-25da-4bf2-ba87-675c28edb21b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Automated Nomic Game 2
I've been playing a game of Nomic, where rules are interpreted by a script we edit instead of by the players. This morning Chelsea won our second game of Nomic with a timing attack:
Our game was set to use random numbers to figure out if someone had won. Effectively, each point you earn shoul... |
05554e77-eb04-4ad3-b836-2b70647536e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stomach Ulcers and Dental Cavities
(This is a linkpost from my blog, De Novo)
Recently I learned about an effort to prevent dental cavities by using genetically modified bacteria to outcompete cavity-causing bacteria. This got me thinking: why has the idea of preventing cavities by targeting bacteria not been more de... |
94ede329-8e34-45d8-b849-a8757884bf75 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Think Like a Supervillain
See also: Everything I Needed To Know About Life, I Learned From Supervillains
> Mr. Malfoy would hardly shrink from talk of ordinary murder, but even he was shocked - yes you were Mr. Malfoy, I was watching your face - when Mr. Potter described how to use his classmates' bodies as raw mater... |
f9fce26e-1f8b-4474-a7be-b3d3244386e5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Second Citizenships, Residencies, and/or Temporary Relocation
EDIT (4/20/21): I am occasionally updating this post at this linked Google Doc with new information. You may wish to instead read this post there.
Introduction
Over the past few years, I’ve gained an interest in securing options for residency outside of m... |
c028ad01-7d7a-47b2-9fbf-9dc1d87590f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Being a Realist (even if you believe in God)
I have a small prediction. Some time before the end of the next paragraph you are going to form a strong opinion as to whether this article has any value to you. I'm going to be using the G word, appealing to emotion, and generally flinging around rhetoric not backed by any... |
8e64232e-498b-47b9-8723-b142f6cce12b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AMA Conjecture, A New Alignment Startup
> Conjecture is a new alignment startup founded by Connor Leahy, Sid Black and Gabriel Alfour, which aims to scale alignment research. We have VC backing from, among others, Nat Friedman, Daniel Gross, Patrick and John Collison, Arthur Breitman, Andrej Karpathy, and Sam Bankman-... |
2cd7db8b-76b2-440c-9e2b-7602bdcf1e79 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Discovering Latent Knowledge Did and Did Not Find
Thanks to Marius Hobbhahn and Oam Patel for helpful feedback on drafts. Thanks to Collin and Haotian for answering many questions about their work.
Discovering Latent Knowledge in Language Models Without Supervision describes Contrast-Consistent Search (CCS), a m... |
843b7b08-cd4b-4452-a1f8-25f58d015b73 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Revision to Market Monetarism: Individual Hoarding as Rational, Competition for Dollars as Zero-Sum?
Wikipedia:
> Abenomics (アベノミクス, 安倍ノミクス, Abenomikusu) refers to the economic policies implemented by the Government of Japan led by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) since the 2012 general election.
>
> [ . . . ]
>... |
4b85f3f1-ae5c-473f-bf1c-9cd66f1c29b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against Thinking About The Unactionable
There's always something that bothered me about people that talk too much about politics, especially at a national or global scale, especially using abstract concepts like "capitalism" and "socialism" rather than pointing to specific laws and regulations.
There's always somethi... |
708f8f49-c59d-4ac9-abcf-1adac4d71572 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How can people write good LW articles?
A comment by AnnaSalamon on her recent article:
> > good intellectual content
>
> Yes. I wonder if there are somehow spreadable habits of thinking (or of "reading while digesting/synethesizing/blog posting", or ...) that could themselves be written up, in order to create more a... |
ef4b0e4b-b4f7-490b-a8e3-18d929ad4eb9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The goal-guarding hypothesis (Section 2.3.1.1 of "Scheming AIs")
This is Section 1.1 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?”. There’s also a summary of the full report here (audio here). The summary covers most of the main points and technical terms, and I’m hoping t... |
8fb7d5ef-4a53-48a1-876d-ade3cb34cefc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Metaculus is seeking Software Engineers
(See Metaculus's previous career-tagged posts here, here, and here.) tl;dr Metaculus is now hiring Frontend Engineers and Full Stack Engineers.
Since 2015, Metaculus has been a core part of the epistemic infrastructure at the heart of the LW/OB/EA world. I'm posting here bec... |
06c8e0ae-b6cd-4b57-969c-2e9350b1900d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Informing Others: Maximally Efficient?
I want to help the world as much as possible: lets define that as reduction of suffering1 of the human race.
I am an engineering student. It would be very simple to spend the rest of my life working on engineering problems, thereby making humanity more effective, and so reducing... |
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