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69d21c20-44c9-4305-bb06-1369026a0015 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | math terminology as convolution
> On the one hand, this theory generalizes the Fuchsian and Bers uniformizations of complex hyperbolic curves and their moduli to nonarchimedean places. It is for this reason that we shall often refer to this theory as p-adic Teichmuller theory, for short. On the other hand, the theory ... |
b98864ef-4052-4056-afd2-15bf007d2d0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 2023 LessWrong Community Census, Request for Comments
Overview
I would like there to be a LessWrong Community Census, because I had fun playing with the data from last year and there's some questions I'm curious about. It's also an entertaining site tradition. Since nobody else has stepped forward to make the communit... |
8d091016-7a64-426c-8760-c3bdb20e1f15 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Outside Analysis and Blind Spots
(I originally tried to make this a comment, but it kept on growing.)
I was looking through the Google results for "Less Wrong" when I found the blog of a rather intelligent Leon Kass acolyte, who's written a critique of our community. While it's a bit of a caricature, it's not entire... |
a3cbe0a1-0eda-4303-b444-59d53779ae24 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | AI alignment curves
AI alignment curves
-------------------
i can think of five different ways an AI's degree of alignment can change over time:
* **unaligned from the start**: an AI can just want to take over the world and maximize something we never cared about, and kill everyone in the process.
* [**sharp left ... |
c6bbb59f-930f-4757-a754-855a19462c8f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | T-Shirt Size Distribution
Back in August when we put in an order for shirts we didn't know what sizes people would want, so I looked around online and made some guesses. Now that we've sold a bunch of shirts and are looking at putting in another order I can look at our sales and have a much better idea of what's likel... |
c9c86e5d-d260-4d2a-ab21-0f9910a996b3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | An attempt to steelman OpenAI's alignment plan
I don't actually think my attempted steelman is what they currently have in mind, this isn't an attempted Intellectual Turing Test. I take more hope from the resources they are committing to the project and their declared willingness to change their minds as they go than ... |
68346c77-5811-4ede-964b-7d377977e7ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Every system seems random from the inside
[Cross-posted from Grand, Unified, Crazy. This builds on a lot of stuff I wrote from before I was cross-posting to Less Wrong, but should be mostly intelligible on a general intuition of what a "computational system" is.]
I’ve been working on a post on predictions which has r... |
074f9f08-7b28-4a7d-9bf6-6c254be49b57 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Wiki for Questions
Q&A sites
Sites like stackexchange, r/askscience, quora, and lesswrong.com/questions all have a similar format. One person asks a question. Everyone gives their own answer. You can vote on answers to (hopefully) raise the best answer to the top. When the answer becomes out of date, if you're lucky... |
def26b67-5c77-433f-b350-99e318a998ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #121]: Forecasting transformative AI timelines using biological anchors
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been... |
fd056c08-60a9-48ea-adba-56bde63911cb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Counterfactual Mugging and Logical Uncertainty
**Followup to**: [Counterfactual Mugging](/lw/3l/counterfactual_mugging/).
Let's see what happens with [Counterfactual Mugging](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Counterfactual_mugging), if we replace the uncertainty about an external fact of how a coin lands, with logical... |
99856f42-50eb-4372-b3a8-a3562342fd53 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Learning without practice, through fMRI induction
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=122523&org=NSF&from=news
From the article:
> New research published today in the journal Science suggests it may be possible to use brain technology to learn to play a piano, reduce mental stress or hit a curve ball... |
698eb115-be0d-4614-aebd-2af37ea0d0c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Crowdsourcing the availability heuristic
There are goals which can be achieved only by personal exertion and hard work – finishing a university degree, learning a language, mastering a martial art… But there is also a plethora of smaller goals, where small differences in approach and resources can make a huge differen... |
f5a294a7-2292-459e-b109-e0ae20885775 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Instrumental Convergence To Offer Hope?
TL;DR Could a superintelligence be motivated to preserve lower life forms because it fears an even greater superintelligence? This 'motivation' takes the form of something like timeless decision theory.
This is a thought experiment about a superintelligent AI. No doubt the situ... |
317d6490-5afd-4d3c-8ce2-8440bfc053e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dishonorable Gossip and Going Crazy
This is a fairly high-context conversation between me (Ben) and my friend (Ren).
Ren used to work at CFAR, and then ~4.5 years ago moved away to join the Monastic Academy in Vermont. Ren had recently visited me and others in the rationalist scene in the Bay and had written a Faceb... |
7fc8e95c-edac-43ac-a135-4f8732dc4fab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Boundless Emotion
Key Claims:
* Emotions and feelings are features in a neural network, and their intensities are determined by the features' activation strengths
* That implies that, because features are directions in activation space and the activation strength is the magnitude, it should be possible to multiply ... |
ae5c3a30-3de7-4f4b-85d5-bcbd2ebc3d4b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Whittlestone et al., The Societal Implications of Deep Reinforcement Learning
While much of the information in this paper will already be familiar to many here, I still want to highlight this paper. It's a really good, clearly articulated summary of some of the key challenges facing real-world applications of a... |
3e14fe64-68be-431d-8de1-fc9b0dcc83fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the best way to disinfect a (rental) car?
I'm currently planning to rent a car and drive to another state.
I would like to disinfect that car as thoroughly as possible before spending 15 hours inside of it. Google gives me lots of suggestions for how to get rid of germs in a used car, but I'm hoping that I ca... |
a9a7848f-5171-4b4c-9285-101ca3e29571 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Stuart Russell’s description of AI risk
Stuart Russell has argued that advanced AI poses a risk, because it will have the ability to make high quality decisions, yet may not share human values perfectly.
Details
-------
Stuart Russell describes a risk from highly advanced AI [here](https://www.edge.org/conversatio... |
be13caf1-881d-4143-8970-92784fb38358 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Scaling Laws for Generative Mixed-Modal Language Models
In this paper authors explore the scaling properties of mixed-modal generative models, discovering new scaling laws that unify the contributions of individual modalities and the interactions between them. I find most interesting that they have found so... |
bf496488-db95-4f5c-a2f2-7a227cf9e44d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Designing for the Long Tail of Machine Learning
1. Introduction
----------------
Recent works have advocated making machine learning (ML) more accessible by helping non-ML experts build and design better learning-based systems (Yang et al., [2018](#bib.bib5 "Grounding Interactive Machine Learning Tool Design in How... |
3f714bc5-71b6-4fbb-a85f-8a83b76d1b8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing the second AI Safety Camp
What is the AI Safety Camp?
Would you like to work on AI safety or strategy research and are looking for a concrete way to get started? We are organizing this camp for aspiring AI safety and strategy researchers. At the camp, you:
* build connections with others in the field
* b... |
cf8ec7d5-7842-4fc1-9780-e4ec78bb5a23 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Building cars we don’t understand
Alright, so in the last post I was talking about growing cars (yes, I’m pretending this is a talk-show). I tried to argue that the difference between growing cars or building them is really just a matter of perspective. In my personal experience, having never worked at or even come cl... |
0d42b579-d45b-4879-a687-ce51940b2cc1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unifying stuff is hard
Grognor draws the following picture, and says that we are much more likely to err by treating two things as one than by treating one things as two, because our limited mental faculties make one thing much easier to deal with than two. He praises making distinctions as harder and more important.
... |
2c8e5f41-8909-4340-9a4d-0fe20cb3eddd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | L-zombies! (L-zombies?)
**Reply to:** Benja2010's [Self-modification is the correct justification for updateless decision theory](/lw/22m/selfmodification_is_the_correct_justification_for/); Wei Dai's [Late great filter is not bad news](/lw/214/late_great_filter_is_not_bad_news/)
*"[P-zombie](http://wiki.lesswrong.c... |
74ce886d-5820-4721-be88-5120b8419a56 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does “Ultimate Neartermism” via Eternal Inflation dominate Longtermism in expectation?
Epistemic status:
While I believe this idea’s consequences could be profound if correct, and it should be taken slightly more seriously than April Fool’s post “Ultra-Near-Termism”, I consider it mostly a quirky novelty, I’ve spent ... |
903a1537-afa0-4cdb-934b-a1d51489d196 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ottawa LW meetup, June 2, 7pm; two Bayesian Conspiracy sessions
Less Wrong meeting:
Date: Thursday June 2, 7:00pm 'til whenever.
Venue: Pub Italia, 434.5 Preston St.
Bayes study group: Anyone in the region interested in learning how to do Bayesian statistics is welcome to join us. We'll be using the statistical pac... |
591c5316-4a23-4df5-bf2d-9ce14660ce13 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How does generalized accessibility compare to targeted accessibility?
Status:
I don't have much to give in the way of answers. I try asking useful questions.
How do we efficiently determine the optimal amount of resources to allocate for accessibility purposes in public spending/business requirements?
What proporti... |
c3face66-2e8d-4983-bf88-ad16fce7857e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A list of core AI safety problems and how I hope to solve them
*Context: I sometimes find myself referring back to* [*this tweet*](https://x.com/davidad/status/1660547794627641345?s=46&t=Lap-izdY_pwXQfbJXZHE8g) *and wanted to give it a more permanent home. While I'm at it, I thought I would try to give a concise summa... |
2aeb7ef8-20cb-4501-94de-d1e318c2c2a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some problems with making induction benign, and approaches to them
The universal prior is malign. I'll talk about sequence of problems causing it to be malign and possible solutions.
----------------------------------------
(this post came out of conversations with Scott, Critch, and Paul)
Here's the basic setup of... |
3a6a8e35-93c1-43f6-b273-05bea5ee09d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vacuum: Theory and Technologies
Vacuum: Theory and Technologies
This post can be described as a general summary of John O'Hanlon's A User's Guide to Vacuum Technology (Goodreads, Amazon) without most of the math and models used. Some sections are completely skipped over: pump fluids, materials in vacuum, lubrication. ... |
475f23ea-96bb-4cf2-85a8-e21b6ee15d79 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : First meetup in Frankfurt (Main)
Discussion article for the meetup : First meetup in Frankfurt (Main)
WHEN: 22 February 2013 06:30:27PM (+0100)
WHERE: Café Albatros, Kiesstraße 27, 60486 Frankfurt am Main
This is an attempt to start a regular meetup in Frankfurt (Main). Since its also the first meetup in F... |
1d88a4cd-b32c-4a44-9c95-c8ba90be289a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Research proposal: Leveraging Jungian archetypes to create values-based models
This project is the origins of the Archetypal Transfer Learning (ATL) method
This is the abstract of my research proposal submitted to AI Alignment Awards. I am publishing this here for community feedback. You can find the link to the ... |
1a53bd05-adaa-4901-8513-8dba6c9052ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety Newsletter #7: Disinformation, Governance Recommendations for AI labs, and Senate Hearings on AI
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the Center for AI Safety. We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Subscribe here to receive future versions.
---
How AI enables di... |
6ec9cdae-f529-45b4-84a6-66e542f8636b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paper is published! 100,000 lumens to treat seasonal affective disorder
Let’s give people with winter depression (seasonal affective disorder, SAD) LOTS OF LIGHT and see what happens!
This is an update to my previous post that said that our preprint is out. :) The paper was accepted with very minor changes, so you mi... |
7a158674-33fb-49b6-8cdb-865c1f5cf659 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intergenerational Knowledge Transfer (IKT)
(This post is intended for my personal blog. Thank you.)
One of the dominant thoughts in my head when I build datasets for my training runs: what our ancestors 'did' over their lifespan likely played a key role in the creation of language and human values.[1]
"Mother" ... |
9b265dd0-67f6-4372-a4ba-e705751f00af | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AISN #21: Google DeepMind’s GPT-4 Competitor, Military Investments in Autonomous Drones, The UK AI Safety Summit, and Case Studies in AI Policy
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the [Center for AI Safety](https://www.safe.ai/). We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Subscr... |
800a82f3-1d07-4388-9578-3fd1c8f6308e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Doesn’t Healthcare Improve Health?
It’s almost a non-sequitur to ask whether or not a giant industry, with a well-defined goal, churning double-digits of GDP, actually works.
If pressured into an experiment we could easily design one that shows airplanes deliver people to destinations over 3000km away faster than... |
6b6e94db-5368-43e7-92ab-29db6c1253c4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Working together to face humanity’s greatest threats: Introduction to The Future of Research on Catastrophic and Existential Risk.
Introduction Ours is a resilient species. Around 70,000 years ago our total population may have fallen to between three and ten thousand individuals, possibly due to a supervolcanic erupti... |
2046adc0-fc4f-45f9-a1bc-fa9a2478fdac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Buenos Aires meetup: Saturday, February 25th, 4pm
Discussion article for the meetup : Buenos Aires meetup: Saturday, February 25th, 4pm
WHEN: 25 February 2012 04:00:00PM (-0300)
WHERE: Starbucks Coffe, Florida 1, Buenos Aires, Argentina
This will be our second Buenos Aires LessWrong meetup. Our nominal dis... |
736720a2-e2a9-4b46-bbc9-3d6d4a4be630 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci April 2021: Voyages of the Gray Swan
You were prepared for gratitude, a commendation from the Admiral, your own department, parades in your name. You were also prepared to hear that your ‘list of helpful suggestions for ensuring supply ships survive random encounters’ was an impudent insult to the collective i... |
86b64a40-cd90-4d97-aa2d-89a67567bc10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Rudeness", a useful coordination mechanic
I think the concept of "rudeness" is underappreciated. (Or, if people are appreciating it, they're doing so quietly where I can't find out about it)
I think a lot of coordination-social-tech relies on there being some kind of social karmic balance. A lot of actions aren't ex... |
17945b56-a777-45cf-ba40-eaad4f829b20 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How path-dependent are human values?
In the Pointers Problem, John Wentworth points out that human values are a function of latent variables in the world models of humans.
My question is about a specific kind of latent variable, one that's restricted to be downstream of what we can observe in terms of causality. Supp... |
e2b25b34-24d7-4531-8cea-0ad9a69b7894 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 75: Self Actualization Final, Responsibility
It was a looping, meandering alley in the midst of Hogwarts, wandering like a stray lock of hair; sometimes crossing itself, it seemed, but you couldn't ever get to the end if you gave into the temptation of apparent shortcuts.
At the end of the tangle, six student... |
282ab2c3-81bb-4e5e-b88a-5232010eb592 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Video essay: How Will We Know When AI is Conscious?
I recently came across this engaging video essay by [exurb1a](https://www.youtube.com/@Exurb1a) and felt it would be of interest to this community. Contrary to its title, it avoids the common pitfall of asserting that only conscious AI can be dangerous, and it effec... |
698960bf-8e9d-46b0-9da8-1dbd39952664 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Zagreb LW meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Zagreb LW meetup
WHEN: 13 July 2013 03:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: CAFFE BAR KOLDING, Ulica Petra Berislavića 8, 10000, Zagreb, Kroatia
I’m visiting Zagreb, and I would really enjoy meeting any LWers there. There are definitely some Croatian readers here, so ... |
23a1a24f-26e4-4d60-8830-43fb46b340ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Think like an educator about code quality
It's been said a thousand times: code is for humans to read, not for machines to execute. However, writing code that is easy for humans to read is much easier said than done. It's something that takes years to learn, and decades to master.
I think I might be able to offer a s... |
7078d6c9-a478-4d13-ab8e-6c209ff0a0a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Group rationality diary, 9/17/12
This is the public group instrumental rationality diary for the week of September 17th. It's a place to record and chat about it if you have done, or are actively doing, things like:
* Established a useful new habit
* Obtained new evidence that made you change your mind about some b... |
5c8cebf9-57bb-48fe-b4da-2442510bbac0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Project ideas: Backup plans & Cooperative AI
This is part of a series of lists of projects. The unifying theme is that the projects are not targeted at solving alignment or engineered pandemics but still targeted at worlds where transformative AI is coming in the next 10 years or so. See here for the introductory post... |
319f7471-c2a9-4561-8f9c-33c77ef27447 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How We Might All Die in A Year
Ilya thought back again to when he’d overheard that conversation between two of his junior colleagues. They were discussing an “AI ending the world” story. This was early in the year, although it felt like years ago now given how fast things had been moving. The year, 2025, was now drawi... |
2b231d9c-c4f7-493f-aae0-c8f560227ccc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can a tiny bit of noise destroy communication?
Cross posted from Overcoming Bias. Comments there.
***
If everyone knows a tenth of the population dishonestly claims to observe alien spaceships, this can make it very hard for the honest alien-spaceship-observer to communicate fact that she has actually seen an alien ... |
4fe50740-7727-4b89-9868-c0ce24827b60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Extensionality and the univalence axiom of type theory
This is the final part of my introduction to dependent type theory. The big theme of this article is equality though that may not be immediately obvious.
Let’s start by finally discussing function extensionality and propositional extensionality.
What’s the deal... |
a44ea0d8-5966-4596-857e-82299ad6f996 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : DC meetup Dec 16
Discussion article for the meetup : DC meetup Dec 16
WHEN: 16 December 2012 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery
The current plan is to meet at the Gallery courtyard, and walk to the US Botanic Garden to see the Season's Greenings display. Visiting a museum or two afterwards... |
3320cda8-9e50-472d-90e0-26bd402ceee8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | October 2016 Media Thread
This is the monthly thread for posting media of various types that you've found that you enjoy. Post what you're reading, listening to, watching, and your opinion of it. Post recommendations to blogs. Post whatever media you feel like discussing! To see previous recommendations, check out the... |
387a63f3-e538-4f01-9e90-9f02e62c3448 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 11. Safety ≠ alignment (but they’re close!)
*Part of the* [*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HzcM2dkCq7fwXBej8)*.*
*(If you’re already an AGI safety expert, you can probably skip this short post—I don’t think anything here is new, or too ... |
c97e3b1c-bff3-48d8-9085-b8f8c3c3f0a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Recommended reading: George Orwell on knowledge from authority
This is an excerpt from an article George Orwell wrote in 1946. I will let the text speak for itself.
> Somewhere or other — I think it is in the preface to saint Joan — Bernard Shaw remarks that we are more gullible and superstitious today than we we... |
7193cd25-ac83-4aea-8b79-0f2cc5f3a7d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Bratislava
Discussion article for the meetup : Bratislava
WHEN: 22 December 2014 06:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Laurinská 1, Bratislava
Same place as previously: foxford.
Discussion article for the meetup : Bratislava |
f04b2959-6136-41e8-913d-802dc4323f17 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dumb Deplaning
So I just traveled to Portsmouth, VA for an experimental conference - in the sense that I don't expect conferences of this type to prove productive, but maybe I should try at least once - in the unlikely event that there are any local Overcoming Bias readers who want to drive out to Portsmouth for a mee... |
cdb98910-a43b-4f52-b96e-8f951b0723b9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Robust fine-tuning of zero-shot models
1 Introduction
---------------
A foundational goal of machine learning is to develop models that work reliably across a broad range of data distributions. Recently, large pre-trained models such as CLIP [radford2021learning] and ALIGN [jia2021scaling] have demonstrated unprece... |
7e0d0ea0-c8d3-4bec-b521-42beae8aa623 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can Morality Be Quantified?
[Cross-posted from my blog]
A common criticism of effective altruism (EA) is its tendency to oversimplify complex issues into mere numbers. Critics argue that EA approaches amount to calculating moral decisions as if on a spreadsheet. They protest that you can’t put a number on human life ... |
0e995e91-3404-4f8f-8aa8-0b0e771ce393 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : [CANCELLED] Perth, Australia: Games night
Discussion article for the meetup : [CANCELLED] Perth, Australia: Games night
WHEN: 02 September 2014 06:00:00PM (+0800)
WHERE: 6/663 Newcastle Street, Leederville, WA 6007
This event has been cancelled. We will attempt to reschedule it. Sorry about the confusion!
... |
639b4216-8033-4ceb-93a5-e139a6eac991 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Reinforcement Learning Goal Misgeneralization: Can we guess what kind of goals are selected by default?
When training a Reinforcement Learning (RL) AI, we observe it to behave well on training data. But there exist different goals that are compatible with the behaviour we see, and we ask which of these goals the AI mi... |
3afc1d8d-b4b0-46da-beb7-ab1a743018a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Honesty and perjury
|
95a5cebc-c92b-4a3a-9411-9aee4f2ca4a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self-shutdown AI
This post describes my proposal for the AI Alignment Awards contest that won a "first round prize" / an honorable mention. The original submission is here, but this post is much better. I'm not sure if this is valuable - any feedback is welcome.
Problem description
We created a new AI system, we ex... |
a3d39b2c-8026-47c5-b620-538184679b30 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Not Mothers’ Day
As far as I can tell, the point of phoning your mother on mothers’ day is to demonstrate your affection to her.
For a behaviour to be an honest signal of characteristic X it needs to be costly enough for those without characteristic X not to bother (or bother as much). So phoning your mother in itsel... |
12b8ffb0-2f83-4736-97e6-bd537b622e87 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong |
How likely do you think worse-than-extinction type fates to be?
The risks of unaligned-AGI are usually couched in terms of existential risk, whereby the outcome is explicitly or implicitly human extinction. However, given the nature of what an AGI would be able to do, it seems though there are plausible scenarios wor... |
e7a59399-0334-42e4-b520-3f22cd777913 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "What-the-hell" Cognitive Failure Mode: a Separate Bias or a Combination of Other Biases?
The "what-the-hell" effect, when you break a rule and then go on a rule-breaking rampage, like binge eating after a single dietary transgression, is a very common failure mode. It was recently mentioned in the Overcoming Bias blo... |
7c8c7401-b0a5-453b-9004-1c5f602ba1a5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Coherent behaviour in the real world is an incoherent concept
*Note: after putting this online, I noticed several problems with my original framing of the arguments. While I don't think they invalidated the overall conclusion, they did (ironically enough) make the post much less coherent. The version below has been si... |
1a4e2c44-7f63-406e-9e71-76dace4ce639 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Doing Your Good Deed For The Day
A few months ago, researchers at the University of Toronto published a very interesting study on moral behavior. The one sentence summary of the most interesting part is that people who did one good deed were less likely to do another good deed in the near future. They had, quite liter... |
0e921be8-764b-4034-be98-da9bc1e33012 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Specialized in ML Training Could Create ASI: AGI Is Unnecessary
Conclusion
Creating ASI does not require AGI.
A common narrative suggests that AGI will be achieved through $100 billion-level computing clusters, which will then accelerate AI development, leading to ASI. However, if AI development itself can be autom... |
678fbd0e-1e88-42a6-8f55-1fedd554805a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Paul Christiano on Dwarkesh Podcast
Dwarkesh's summary:
> Paul Christiano is the world’s leading AI safety researcher. My full episode with him is out!
>
> We discuss:
>
> * Does he regret inventing RLHF, and is alignment necessarily dual-use?
> * Why he has relatively modest timelines (40% by 2040, 15% by 2030),
... |
35ea6ab8-9a86-4670-8aa5-1357a069ee3a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality: Abridged
This was originally planned for release around Christmas, but our old friend Mr. Planning Fallacy said no. The best time to plant an oak tree is twenty years ago; the second-best time is today.
I present to you: Rationality Abridged -- a 120-page nearly 50,000-word summary of "Rationality: From ... |
6ca8596f-710d-43e6-ba50-2a0e016df74e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Artificial Interdisciplinarity: Artificial Intelligence for Research on Complex Societal Problems
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Artificial Interdisciplinarity: Artificial Intelligence
for Research on Complex Societal Problems
Seth D. Baum1
Received: 16 September 2019 / Accepted: 3 July 2020/
#Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
Thi... |
52a7386f-3430-44ee-937a-eafd7b7582b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Beware the Moral Homophone
Or "Why you should prioritize attacking your allies before anyone else"
Homophones are words that look or sound exactly alike, but convey completely different meanings. It’s how bear can refer to the large forest animal or the act of carrying a burden, how light can be a weight designatio... |
d30f8990-599d-4535-8f8b-94988d3d7fac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Your Strategy Roadmap: Expert Tips + Live Training
The cornerstone of running an impactful organization lies in developing a solid organizational strategy. A good strategic plan will be your “north star”, providing an anchor to make decisions that drive your desired impact. The best strategies include thoughtful, meas... |
36628725-9ea8-45f7-96b4-cd946587940a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An agile approach to pre-research
My composition teacher in college told me that in some pottery schools, the teacher holds up your pot, examines it, comments on it, and then smashes it on the floor. They do this for your first 100 pots.
In that spirit, this post's epistemic status is SMASH THIS POT.
When I'm doing ... |
23756b28-ef53-4c79-8d30-40005b4db7b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Urbana-Champaign fun and games
Discussion article for the meetup : Urbana-Champaign fun and games
WHEN: 24 November 2013 02:00:00PM (-0600)
WHERE: 412 W. Elm St, Urbana, Illinois
We'll be meeting at a house to copy those Washington DC people and play games. If you have never played Wits and Wagers, you sho... |
f7bd1b4b-df02-4361-8179-f3790661c15d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Tall Tales at Different Scales: Evaluating Scaling Trends For Deception In Language Models
*This post summarizes work done over the summer as part of the* [*Summer 2023 AI Safety Hub Labs programme*](https://www.aisafetyhub.org/)*. Our results will also be published as part of an upcoming paper. In this post, we focus... |
24164095-6553-41a9-8fab-9bae94705916 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Chicago Rationality Reading Group
Discussion article for the meetup : Chicago Rationality Reading Group
WHEN: 14 May 2017 01:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Harper Memorial Library Room 148, 1116 E 59th St, Chicago, IL 60637
The Chicago Rationality group meets every Sunday from 1-3 PM in Room 148 of Harper Memorial... |
b271eaff-1bde-4777-90cf-ff0ded0258fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Selections From "The Trouble With Being Born"
I've been aware for some time that there was a Romanian-Parisian existentialist philosopher named Emil Cioran who wrote On the Heights of Despair and The Trouble With Being Born. The other day when mentioning him I pulled up a copy of Trouble for the first time and everyon... |
d1e3347d-8f6b-41dd-a00c-920ff7cea2f3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Countering Superintelligence Misinformation
Abstract
--------
\*\*:\*\*
Superintelligence is a potential type of future artificial intelligence (AI) that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all major respects. If built, superintelligence could be a transformative event, with potential consequences that a... |
4407b5c9-55a0-4137-9656-538afd6bcee3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Redwood Research is hiring for several roles (Operations and Technical)
Redwood Research is a research organization with the mission of aligning superhuman AI. In addition to our primary work of applied AI alignment research, we host and operate Constellation, a shared office space we created to foster knowledge-... |
3441828f-ef3f-41e5-93ed-61cc51568efe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Awareness through Interaction with Blatantly Alien Models
Summary: I believe that if more people understood the alien nature of AI on the gut level, it might become easier for them to appreciate the risks. If this became sufficiently common knowledge, we might even get needle-moving effects on regulation and safety... |
5756544d-a3d0-4547-b3f9-0fb6dc3cfaeb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Asymptotic Logical Uncertainty: Connection to Random Logical Extensions.
This post is part of the Asymptotic Logical Uncertainty series. Here, I will explain how to talk about other parts of logical uncertainty in the framework of Asymptotic Logical Uncertainty (ALU).
Much work has been done in Logical Uncertainty on... |
5189a055-8b74-444d-a434-33b3e9f2f4d6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why do stocks go up?
Here are two stories about stocks that I find hard to reconcile:
1. Stock prices represent the market's best guess at a stock's future price.
2. Overall, stock prices tend to go up due to advances in technology.
But if stock prices tend to go up due to technology, why isn't that already priced... |
074a0ee9-56d3-4210-af81-8731149e00a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prizes for last year's 2019 Review
About a year ago, LessWrong held its second annual review, where we looked over the best posts from 2019. The LessWrong team offered $2000 in prizes for the top post authors, and (up to) $2000 in prizes for the best reviews of those posts.
Once again, some things came up and we got ... |
71ee32ae-fed5-4c76-9dab-bdb20a0d96b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Quick Look: Altitude and Child Development
A client came to me to investigate the effect of high altitude on child development and has given me permission to share the results. This post bears the usual marks of preliminary client work: I focused on the aspects of the question they cared about the most, not necessaril... |
d929bc70-e080-4c4d-aae8-2da18bd4d3a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Maybe we can perform the "Mary's Room" thought experiment
It seems possible that soon there may be a cure for colourblindness. The Mary's Room thought experiment attempts to pin down something about the nature of qualia in a contrived but similar situation, but my feeling is that the actual result of such an experimen... |
3bbbf991-0ec0-44cf-bde2-f43b9babba90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The value of time as a student
Cross posted from Overcoming Bias. Comments there.
***
When I was at college, many of my associates had part time jobs, or worked during school breaks. They were often unpleasant, uninspiring, and poorly paid jobs, such as food preparation. Some were better, such as bureaucracy. But th... |
ef43b28e-147e-4e96-88fb-4285d1d71413 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Bratislava Meetup XI.
Discussion article for the meetup : Bratislava Meetup XI.
WHEN: 07 April 2014 06:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Bistro The Peach, Heydukova 21, Bratislava
The same place; debate about how to spread rationality and LW culture in Slovakia.
Zvyčajné miesto a čas. Téma: Ako šíriť rozumnosť a kul... |
991d1e99-ea33-427c-b4c7-ebe9e41ea161 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thank You, Old Man Jevons, For My Job
[Epistemic status: Half-truth.]
[CW: Microeconomics]
Sometime in the 1800s, some random English economist named William Stanley Jevons made an amazing discovery: The demand for coal power is elastic.
This may sound boring as fuck. That’s because it is. A lot of things have price... |
04c95245-66ca-4582-9501-371b1b6d7417 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Epoch and FRI Mentorship Program Summer 2023
We are thrilled to announce the [Epoch](https://epochai.org/) and [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) (FRI) mentorship program for women, non-binary people, and trans people of all genders. This program aims to provide guidance to individuals ... |
034551ca-831c-48a5-8a71-7469784fbed7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Misalignment Harms Can Be Caused by Low Intelligence Systems
Most clinical trials are very simple statistical models. There are not trillions of parameters in a complex neural network architecture. Yet they are still the most effective tools we have at validating and optimising health and recovery in human beings. Ver... |
e5c0c38d-f2f6-48f5-84a0-629e0ca5b049 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Nature Editorial Argues for More Bayes in Court
Nothing new here, but a good graphic of likelihood ratios that was quite good.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v479/n7371/full/479036a.html |
531d3b39-0d24-4dd8-b9ed-7f764670d8e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can you eliminate memetic scarcity, instead of fighting?
tl;dr: If you notice yourself fighting over how to tradeoff between two principles, check if you can just sidestep the problem by giving everyone tons of whatever is important to them (sometimes in a different form than they originally wanted).
Not a new conce... |
caff7bae-2444-4f2f-8cab-702cc1391a2a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should you write longer comments? (Statistical analysis of the relationship between comment length and ratings)
A few months ago we have launched an experimental website. In brief, our goal is to create a platform where unrestricted freedom of speech would be combined with high quality of discussion. The problem can b... |
9c623b2f-5359-46fb-97a2-462a423be541 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ambiguities or the issues we face with AI in medicine
Abstract
With AI gradually becoming more relevant to healthcare, we are running into a diverse set of issues related to ambiguous medical data, expert disagreement, and biased outcomes. For AI to make accurate medical predictions, significant improvements in da... |
3c53f27e-59d5-40e0-acfd-b3990359ad66 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Critiquing Scasper's Definition of Subjunctive Dependence
Before we get to the main part, a note: this post discusses subjunctive dependence, and assumes the reader has a background in Functional Decision Theory (FDT). For readers who don't, I recommend this paper by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soares. I will leave the... |
3db73804-5ea0-44b7-848a-653040b61cbd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Resources that (I think) new alignment researchers should know about
**EDIT:** *This post was last updated in February 2023. It may no longer be fully up to date.*
Here are some resources that I think new alignment researchers should know about.
**Starting off**
================
[AGI Safety Fundamentals](https://ww... |
211e4521-a19e-45d5-85b7-e784fb70d2fb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ukraine #3: Decision Theory, Madman Theory and the Mafioso Nature
This is a follow-up post to the last section of Ukraine Post #2 on the need for Better Decision Theory.
In particular I want to think more about the following result and some resulting logic and examples. If that’s not relevant to your interests and/or... |
d2e93261-9af3-4a5a-9dba-1dc9500a4efa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If I encounter a capabilities paper that kinda spooks me, what should I do with it?
If I encounter a capabilities paper that kinda spooks me, what should I do with it? I'm inclined to share it as a draft post with some people I think should know about it. I have encountered such a paper, and I found it in a capabiliti... |
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