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dfeb1399-fd60-4b18-a842-a03899a3b87f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | LCDT, A Myopic Decision Theory
The looming shadow of deception
===============================
Deception encompasses many fears around AI Risk. Especially once a human-like or superhuman level of competence is reached, deception becomes impossible to detect and potentially pervasive. That’s worrying because [converge... |
dfd8cf9a-7369-4a32-bb18-fee29679eb41 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unfaithful Reasoning Can Fool Chain-of-Thought Monitoring
This research was completed for LASR Labs 2025 by Benjamin Arnav, Pablo Bernabeu-Pérez, Nathan Helm-Burger, Tim Kostolansky and Hannes Whittingham. The team was supervised by Mary Phuong. Find out more about the program and express interest in upcoming iteratio... |
6ab47952-dc92-427d-9437-ba5ec4c98b17 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Feb. 16 - Feb. 22, 2015
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately... |
202f688d-536d-4485-8190-a8790e612e2d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing the incoming CEO for The Roots of Progress
A few months ago we announced a major expansion of our activities, from supporting just my work to supporting a broader network of progress writers. Along with that, we launched a search for a CEO to lead the new organization we are building for this program. I’m v... |
ecf4cb4e-0deb-4111-b1cd-380316eef74e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I Can Tolerate Anything Except Factual Inaccuracies
A wonderful post by greyenlightenment that touches on contrarian and intellectualism signalling. It mentions the dilemma between agreeing with the broad thrust of a piece, and agreeing with factual claims of the piece. We are suggested to consider not criticising a p... |
6486a66c-098d-4318-a758-5c1bb13e1997 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI Safety via Luck
*Epistemic Status: I feel confident and tentatively optimistic about the claims made in this post, but am slightly more uncertain about how it generalizes. Additionally, I am concerned about the extent to which this is dual-use for capabilities and*[*exfohazardous*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y... |
533e33c1-dc67-48dc-b4f4-f945f7f018e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Old Letter To My Kids About "Critical Thinking"
Soon after my divorce in 2009 and before I ever learned about rationality, critical thinking, cognitive biases, or fallacies, I wrote this letter to my kids.
They were 13, 11, and 10, I didn't expect them to understand it then, but my idea was for them to have it as a r... |
7209076d-0140-4830-bbb3-9457b9567027 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Toward negotiable reinforcement learning: shifting priorities in Pareto optimal sequential decision-making
1 Introduction
---------------
It has been argued that the first AI systems with generally super-human cognitive abilities will play a pivotal decision-making role in directing the future of civilization [Bost... |
d973c2a8-af9d-483b-b1a7-ec491212aa78 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What vegan food resources have you found useful?
My vegan nutrition project has focused on supplements, but there have been several requests for resources on how to eat better. I'm not well equipped to answer this- I'm not vegan, and my stomach only got even passably good at digestion a year ago. So I'd like to crowd... |
c78dd0cb-3112-45c2-95c6-5b802deed70a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Winners of the Essay competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy
We’re delighted to announce the winners of the Essay competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy.
Overview
The competition attracted 90 entries in total (only one of which was obviously just the work of an LLM!), taking a wide ... |
90743594-4fbf-4c6c-a36e-1c3c8db5084a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What if Brain Computer Interfaces went exponential?
After watching the release of this video from one of the patients in Neuralink's first clinical trials, I decided to post here the prologue of some fiction I have been writing which is set in a world where BCI tech experiences the same exponential growth that we have... |
7efd4fad-f719-4850-a3d9-4f0051fccd40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Talkbox Bagpipe Drones
A few weeks ago I wrote:
> There's also an instrument in this category that could have been built any time in the last ~500y: talkbox bagpipes. While the mouth-blown pipes are probably most familiar, all the mouth is doing is putting air into a bag. Bellows pipes replace this with an arm-oper... |
b2e7ed06-8488-41d2-84a3-b36f46cabeea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ChatGPT: Exploring the Digital Wilderness, Findings and Prospects
This is a cross-post from New Savanna.
That is the title of my latest working paper. It summarizes and synthesizes much of the work I have done with ChatGPT to date and contains the abstracts and contents of all the working papers I have done on Cha... |
644688cf-280e-467a-bf7e-00f77a7ef638 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | saving the server-side of the internet: just WASM,
saving the server-side of the internet: just WASM, *again*
----------------------------------------------------------
in [a previous post](saving-the-web.html), i propose to abandon the entire client-side web stack in favor of pretty much just [WASM](https://en.wiki... |
424ddd4b-11ae-4548-8359-2ed420471696 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Australia-wide mega-meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Australia-wide mega-meetup
WHEN: 24 August 2014 07:00:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Australia
https://www.facebook.com/events/1547367772141284/
Hello LessWrong! The organised minds of Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra are sanctioning an online hangout for ... |
8d93aeb6-42dd-424c-aaf3-467f6853c9ec | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | My preferred framings for reward misspecification and goal misgeneralisation
TL;DR
=====
* I was feeling quite dissatisfied with a bunch of categories like “inner and outer misalignment” and “reward misspecification and goal misgeneralisation”
* I think most of this dissatisfaction stems from them not being able to c... |
0a758936-501d-4641-80e8-78ed523880b2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Short summary of mAIry's room
This is a shorter summary of the post "[mAIry's room: AI reasoning to solve philosophical problems](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DLmhJbuhYek5rEhpH/mairy-s-room-ai-reasoning-to-solve-philosophical-problems)". Its aim is to explain the key concepts of that post without going into full te... |
57a3f14f-a7f9-40e2-ad5e-bc24f7245437 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In favour of total utilitarianism over average
While it may be intuitive to reduce population ethics to a single lottery, this is incorrect; instead, it can only be reduced to n repeated lotteries, where n is the number of people...
This post will argue that within the framework of hedonic utilitarianism, total utili... |
d1ba1901-56f9-4405-bf73-8700e23c6267 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interactive Infographic on Simpson's Paradox
Since Simpson's Paradox has been discussed here recently (and not so recently), I thought I'd share this interactive1 infographic that I found via the FlowingData blog. I already understood Simpson's Paradox pretty well, but playing with the sliders helped me get a more int... |
83a61394-a6d8-4bb0-8ee7-c464894769d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An inducible group-"meditation" for use in rationality dojos
Note: The following outline of my research proposal is unfinished. I posted it in the discussion section to spur conversation and get constructive criticism (successfully, I might add). If you have any suggestions, then please make them. I will be monitoring... |
5744275c-3357-4ac4-8e43-f60366f125d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Simple embodied cognition hacks
I've known that the mind can be affected by the body's actions, but I often forget this when sitting at my computer chair for long stretches, and when standing and interacting in social situations I've subconciously cultivated a passive, non-confrontational but minimally interactive pos... |
bf38f2f5-b556-4179-afd8-73f01a9e3f5b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Framing Practicum: Semistable Equilibrium
Thanks to John Wentworth for conceiving and executing the concept of a framing practicum, as well as much of the format and language of this post!
This is a framing practicum post. We’ll talk about what a semistable equilibrium is, how to recognize semistable equilibria in th... |
d619a4f3-2c8a-40de-9fd8-ea6c5cec940f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Frequentism and Bayesian Dogma
I've heard that you believe that frequentism is correct. But that's obviously wrong, so what gives?
DanielFilan
I guess first of all I should ask, what do you mean by "frequentism"?
DanielFilan
I mean classical statistical frequentism. Though somewhat tongue-in-cheek, as I don't thi... |
bccba970-a1cb-43ce-9492-1b1f91e633c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Expanding Moral Cinematic Universe
A subtheme for me this year has been grappling with how to reconcile different facets of my morality.
Part of this has to do with reconcile the virtues of "Protect yourself, maintain slack, be aligned with yourself and your community" and "But, maybe the world is metaphorically... |
d2c1b04a-6235-49cd-be2e-72eb19aea0b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Simplicity priors with reflective oracles
Previously, I described a type of probabilistic oracle machines that I think is powerful enough to allow the implementation of a variant of AIXI that can reason about worlds containing other instances of this variant of AIXI. In this post, I describe how to implement a simplic... |
ce0fb16d-25fb-4033-a229-811910a55409 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hong Kong LW meetup
Any LW readers in Asia's world city interested in a meetup? I have a hunch that there might be more of us that the statistics suggest, possibly due to some of us showing up in the analytics as being based in Kowloon, not Hong Kong. At any rate, I'd be surprised if we couldn't find enough people for... |
821c45bd-2134-4dbe-88bd-2271a24372eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evaluating 2022 ACX Predictions
Previously: 2022 ACX Predictions Buy/Sell/Hold, Evaluating 2021 ACX Predictions
As is the yearly tradition, let’s see how we did. Scott noted in his results post that on pure numbers I did pretty well, coming in 54th out of 508 entries.
My own evaluation, by my own standards, is I did... |
9b77d9fb-4e7d-4659-acb3-8a506bac4646 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Import AI 337: Why I am confused about AI; penguin dataset; and defending networks via RL with CYBERFORCE
Welcome to Import AI, a newsletter about AI research. Import AI runs on lattes, ramen, and feedback from readers. If you’d like to support this (and comment on posts!) please subscribe.
Also, this issue sees me t... |
71b8e981-ba67-457a-a864-de535fa7b45f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Has there been any work on attempting to use Pascal's Mugging to make an AGI behave?
> A mere line in the sand, backed by the clout of a nonexistent simulator, could prove a stronger restraint than a two-foot-thick steel door - Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence
Nick Bostrom's idea of anthropic capture is very similar ... |
fd09dc58-ce4d-43b2-af26-2b3e6320730f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress links and tweets, 2022-10-05
Announcements
* It’s time to build: Arnold Ventures is hiring a “VP of Infrastructure” to focus on “the drivers of supply-side bottlenecks”
* The World’s Fair Company has launched their poster series, Stories of Our Future (prints available!) (via @camwiese)
* Meta (Facebook) A... |
64fa29c4-dbfa-40db-a19c-34e17b7243c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Brussels meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Brussels meetup
WHEN: 14 April 2012 12:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Museum of Natural Sciences Rue Vautier 29 B-1000 Brussels
During this meetup we will continue discussing our beliefs, using puzzles to improve creative thinking, and brainstorming about what ma... |
3da3227d-b1c9-45ff-b2ac-1cfb0820495b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many?
Recently the Large Hadron Collider was damaged by a mechanical failure. This requires the collider to be warmed up, repaired, and then cooled down again, so we're looking at a two-month delay.
Inevitably, many commenters said, "Anthropic principle! If the LHC had worked, it would ... |
0ae05e9a-535a-47ba-ba8f-6d03c27ba927 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
WHEN: 05 March 2017 03:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture
We will be meeting in the courtyard to hang out, play games, and engage in fun conversation.
Upcoming mee... |
77d7e084-6dcf-47cb-9241-d5657261f1fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Cherry Blossoms
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Cherry Blossoms
WHEN: 12 April 2015 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Enid A. Haupt Garden
Note: The meetup location has changed for this week.
We will be gathering at the Enid A. Haupt Garden (outside the south entrance to th... |
db2381ea-3cb2-461a-be7b-ea6793d5ac66 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Urbana-Champaign: Thinking Fast and Slow Discussion
Discussion article for the meetup : Urbana-Champaign: Thinking Fast and Slow Discussion
WHEN: 03 November 2013 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 40.109545,-88.227318
Coordinates are: 40.109545,-88.227318 Meetup will be held in the Courtyard Cafe in the Illini Uni... |
f3af5a9d-a769-4e99-a01e-e8eaf666c964 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | DIY Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation. Who wants to go first?
There's been a bit of discussion about TDCS here on LessWrong. If you don't know what TDCS is here's an article from Technology Review.
Here's a company (soon) selling a DIY kit to build your own.
> tDCS is one of the coolest pieces of health/ s... |
e04a2045-b22d-4832-b2d4-ea749d015c36 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Omicron Post #13: Outlook
Omicron is now the dominant strain, so much of what would otherwise have gone into this Omicron post ended up in the latest weekly post instead, and I’m considering the right way to merge the two streams together.
In addition to some amount of the usual business, the focus of this post will ... |
2eee172f-6c1c-4f77-bedd-2e7e7a17adf1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 8/4/22: Rebound
I’ll be at Future Forum over the weekend. If you’re here, come and say hello. I don’t plan on scheduling a lot of meetings because I hate scheduling, but talking to people is the plan. I have a few people that I know I want to see, but mostly I’m going to be improvising, and whatever happens happ... |
7bfe3872-0a75-4efe-bbe8-a6fa6265a10e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are mass hallucinations a real thing?
One of the explanations in the irrationality game thread for UFOs and other paranormal events seen by multiple people at once, like the was mass hysteria. This is also a common explanation given for any seemingly paranormal event that multiple people have independently witnessed.
... |
1929c06e-ad1a-4951-9815-174cab62bd9f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An explanation of evil in an organized world
A classic problem with Christianity is the so-called ‘problem of evil’—that friction between the hypothesis that the world’s creator is arbitrarily good and powerful, and a large fraction of actual observations of the world.
Coming up with solutions to the problem of evil ... |
c975d5e5-7d28-4086-bf27-08c73167183b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Life as metaphor for everything else.
Life is highly instructive.
Not my own, personal, human life - that's kind of a mess right now. I mean life as in the property shared by all living things. The "are viruses alive?" kind of life.
Life is really, really, useful. As a metaphor. Because its associated philosophical ... |
84d929bc-2a4d-46f7-b8f4-5c26d8f1247d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Autonomous technology and the paradox of human-centered design
um
the talk will unfold out of a few
recent publications of mine um the kind
of retrospective journey is a
personal reflection on how particular
concerns
and concepts have emerged and to become
central in my work
most of my work in interaction design
over ... |
2a164897-61c2-40a2-9582-8ea45cd55b4e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intelligence without causality
TL;DR
In this work, I explain how a mind can function in a universe devoid of cause and effect. I show that such a design can accommodate arbitrary restrictions that the laws of physics might happen to place on its outputs.
I originally decided to write this post when I decided that I w... |
9fa34e7f-3053-4942-ba7c-b752581b9346 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agentmodels | Tutorial: Modeling Agents with Probabilistic Programs | Modeling Agents with Probabilistic Programs
---
layout: chapter
title: "Reinforcement Learning to Learn MDPs"
description: RL for Bandits, Thomson Sampling for learning MDPs.
---
## Introduction
Previous chapters assumed that the agent already knew the structure of the environment. In MDPs, the agent knows everythi... |
6635be10-6c0b-4a07-a871-220d915e1ac4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should we postpone getting a booster due to Omicron, till there are Omicron-specific boosters?
Wai Dai writes over in the comments at Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over:
> From your linked paper https://www.cell.com/trends/immunology/fulltext/S1471-4906(21)00177-0: [Wai Dai's quote from the paper ... |
dbe51163-9537-40fb-a090-4a3afc3b3245 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intuitive Lagrangian Mechanics
Lagrangian mechanics is an alternative formulation of Newtonian mechanics. Newtonian mechanics solves movements using successive approximations. Lagrangian mechanics figures out the whole path all at once. Lagrangian mechanics is useful for solving problems subject to certain constraints... |
19710522-4e5c-4054-bf87-b36eed956158 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do people do remote research collaborations effectively?
I think remote research collaboration has a valley-of-inefficiency, where at mid-low levels of collaboration-competence it is much better to just do all research on your own rather than trying to split things up between multiple people (probably due to coord... |
dceae613-106c-479a-86dd-561fb320774a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 110
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 110.
There is a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com,... |
22cc0c31-cd2c-438a-9c67-6d627499665d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Survey Results: 10 Fun Questions for LWers
I posted a quick 10-question survey, and 100 users filled it out. Here are the results!
1. Pick the answer most people will not pick.
* HPMOR (26%)
* SlateStarCodex (26%)
* The Sequences (30%)
* A dust speck in the eye (18%)
Well done everyone who picked the dust speck... |
7773eb66-0584-4a42-9c5d-d37646d3af7a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | MIRI AMA, and a talk on logical induction
Nate, Malo, Jessica, Tsvi, and I will be answering questions tomorrow at the Effective Altruism Forum. If you’ve been curious about anything related to our research, plans, or general thoughts, you’re invited to submit your own questions in the comments below or at **[Ask MIRI... |
a5ddfa47-b85f-4417-93df-188a3b4c4cf3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fun With DAGs
Crossposted here.
Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) turn out to be really fundamental to our world. This post is just a bunch of neat stuff you can do with them.
UTILITY FUNCTIONS
Suppose I prefer chicken over steak, steak over pork, and pork over chicken. We can represent my preferences with a directed ... |
009500e8-3a8c-4d12-8d04-a7b7a35ed53b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are stereotypes ever irrational?
Harvard's undergraduate admission office will tell you "There is no typical Harvard student." This platitude ticks me off. Of course there's such a thing as a typical Harvard student! Harvard students aren't magically exceptions to the laws of probability. Just as a robin is a more... |
c0f7becc-3676-4799-a2cd-ecb8d7f5f7a4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | How major governments can help with the most important century
I’ve been writing about tangible things we can do today to help the [most important century](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/isENJuPdB3fhjWYHd) go well. Previously, I wrote about [helpful messages to spread](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/gBjP... |
aafe823c-ef07-48fc-b655-f811e0f6abc4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Treat conspicuous consumption like hard nipples?
Robin asked, in relation to correlations between sexual prompts and apparently innocent behaviors:
> So what would happen if we all became conscious of the above behaviors being strong clues that men are in fact actively trying for promiscuous short term sex? Would su... |
aaf32dc9-0fbd-40a1-ada8-36298b20efc6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] A rational response to the Paris attacks and ISIS
Here's my op-ed that uses long-term orientation, probabilistic thinking, numeracy, consider the alternative, reaching our actual goals, avoiding intuitive emotional reactions and attention bias, and other rationality techniques to suggest more rational responses... |
d3769946-1e82-4235-a9df-3437f3e70b85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Space-worthiness
A recent post about the Fermi paradox left me wondering about relative difficulties of getting into space, though I don't think it affects those specific arguments.
People establishing a presence in space is difficult but at least plausible-- I'm talking about biological people as we are now, and bei... |
906d113d-2c25-48a7-8c3a-bd23be2aa796 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "a dialogue with myself concerning eliezer yudkowsky" (not author)
This is a linkpost[1], but I don't think the author would be happy to get commentary from people here on their blog, so I've copied the post here. link is at the bottom, if you really really want to comment on the original; please don't, though.
-----... |
b6250349-02ad-4135-938c-e31564edb689 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are You a Solar Deity?
Max Muller was one of the greatest religious scholars of the 19th century. Born in Germany, he became fascinated with Eastern religion, and moved to England to be closer to the center of Indian scholarship in Europe. There he mastered English and Sanskrit alike to come out with the first English... |
ff1cfc5c-4dcd-4e1e-8ae6-69777cab211d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Towards Industrial Private AI: A two-tier framework for data and model security
I Introduction
---------------
With various ubiquitous devices connected through base stations, access points, and Internet of Things (IoT) gateways, Industrial IoT (IIoT) has brought a technological shift to how modern industries acqui... |
86f1d5a6-2dac-488b-b9a9-7d67cb70b8ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] YC President Sam Altman: The Software Revolution
Writing about technological revolutions, Y Combinator president Sam Altman warns about the dangers of AI and bioengineering (discussion on Hacker News):
> Two of the biggest risks I see emerging from the software revolution—AI and synthetic biology—may put treme... |
8f065e60-9f62-4ab5-a8be-6d5c3359f30e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Metamathematics and probability
|
d78ba1c5-93a6-4298-b636-24868a8afa32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Analysing: Dangerous messages from future UFAI via Oracles
The user cousin_it has pointed out a problem with the counterfactual Oracle idea: the Oracle AIs may form a "bucket chain" bringing back a dangerous message from a future UFAI (unfriendly AI).
This is certainly a problem, and though there are ways of reducing... |
e5f20c88-4316-4cc2-816e-95afe032863a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New paper from MIRI: "Toward idealized decision theory"
I'm pleased to announce a new paper from MIRI: Toward Idealized Decision Theory.
Abstract:
> This paper motivates the study of decision theory as necessary for aligning smarter-than-human artificial systems with human interests. We discuss the shortcomings of t... |
daac16a0-7811-4b94-86f8-86304d31b051 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Humming is not a free $100 bill
Last month I posted about humming as a cheap and convenient way to flood your nose with nitric oxide (NO), a known antiviral. Alas, the economists were right, and the benefits were much smaller than I estimated.
The post contained one obvious error and one complication. Both were caugh... |
1929ea1e-6f90-44ea-b123-8380ed647750 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Portland SSC Meetup
We meet the second weekend of every month, alternating Saturdays and Sundays. We tend to discuss, and sometimes play games. If you've read some SSC, you're welcome to come. If you have any questions, or want to know where to go for the meetup, email me (nwalton125@gmail.com). |
32710f46-685f-4621-b75d-048bbf2b6b1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pre-Hindsight Prompt: Why did 2021 NOT bring a return to normalcy?
Feel free to modify the prompt into something like "why was 2021 even worse/more intense than 2020". Also go ahead and substitute 2022, if you think "the direct effects of the pandemic continue into 2021 for a while" is too boring of an answer.
Pr... |
65c67510-bd89-40cb-8f46-3af41074b526 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Legible Normativity for AI Alignment: The Value of Silly Rules.
Introduction
------------
As attention to the challenge of aligning artificial intelligence with human welfare has grown, it has become commonplace to assert that autonomous agents will have to be built to follow human norms and laws [[Etzioni and Etzi... |
43087de9-958c-49ed-a1dd-776f383f798c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Predictors exist: CDT going bonkers... forever
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowra... |
d5c096b6-9481-4bb5-bcd7-6628228cd591 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are the consequences of groups usually highly contingent on their details?
How much of the impact of an organization is covered by it being ‘a group of size M working on X’, relative to the specifics of how and what they do in working on X? What if we also include a single scale of how functional they are?
For instan... |
a4db4d45-1c18-4f39-92a5-5292a503a50e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Blindsight and Consciousness
Thomas Metzinger is a philosopher who pays lots of attention to cognitive science and psychology, and likes to think about consciousness. Most of the interesting ideas that follow come from his books The Ego Tunnel and Being No One. I hope to write a series of posts summarizing some of the... |
ee74810a-8346-4f4a-a251-5fac59d26617 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | GPT-3: A Summary
> With massive size comes massive generalization ability: GPT-3 is competitive in many benchmarks w*ithout even tuning on the target task.* [...] Perhaps the most impressive part, though, is that even at such a massive scale, the model still scales smoothly in performance instead of plateauing, implyi... |
9dcd0f1d-934e-4b82-bdfd-44cd41835e46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A small example of one-step hypotheticals
Just a small example of what one-step hypotheticals might mean in theory and in practice.
This involves a human H pricing some small object:
In theory
The human H is (hypothetically) asked various questions that causes it to model how much they would pay for the small vio... |
873e85e9-347c-4c2b-82ca-8cf6b783ed6d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI #38: Let’s Make a Deal
Another busy week. GPT-5 starts, Biden and Xi meet and make somewhat of a deal, GPTs get explored, the EU AI Act on the verge of collapse by those trying to kill the part that might protect us, multiple very good podcasts. A highly interesting paper on potential deceptive alignment.
Despite ... |
7a68747b-af25-4ada-8bd7-2a61feb98f55 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Here is a 2-hour slide presentation I made for college students and teens:
You Are A Brain
It's an introduction to realist thinking, a tour of all the good stuff people don't realize until they include a node for their brain's map in their brain's map. All the concepts come from Eliezer's posts on Overcoming Bias.
I p... |
6c6e337e-e18c-44b6-970d-6fa583452b85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A shift in arguments for AI risk
The linked post is work done by Tom Adamczewski while at FHI. I think this sort of expository and analytic work is very valuable, so I'm cross-posting it here (with his permission). Below is an extended summary; for the full document, see his linked blog post.
Many people now work on ... |
b0147741-9c29-4226-9669-9e6f324bb1b5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI takeover tabletop RPG: "The Treacherous Turn"
[Long ago I fantasized](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qakRE5XTTmnrkJqgp/two-ai-risk-related-game-design-ideas) about an AI-takeover-themed tabletop roleplaying game. Well, now a group of designers are working hard to make it happen! They need playtesters. So I'm signa... |
755d30f0-7510-4e4c-b7ef-ee711a9e96ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Re: Attempted Gears Analysis of AGI Intervention Discussion With Eliezer
TL;DR
I think AGI architectures will be quirky and diverse. Consequently, there are many possible futures. My thoughts on the AI alignment problem are far more optimistic than (my best measure of) mainstream opinions among AI safety researchers (... |
bb658f09-7010-4e38-a621-225a0efd24bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Personal decisions the leading cause of death
I've had this paper (pdf) in my "for LW" pile for a while, I didn't want to dump it in the open thread to have it promptly drowned out but neither could I think of much more to say to make it worth a top-level post on the main LW.
> This paper analyzes the relationships b... |
641b386e-f61c-4cb3-9c28-120d04cfb75f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Episode 3 of Tsuyoku Naritai! (the 'becoming stronger podcast): Nike Timers
Latest episode is up! In this episode, we learn rationality from Shia LeBeouf.
https://anchor.fm/tsuyokunaritai/episodes/Episode-3---Nike-Timers-e3trl2
http://bit.ly/2GZnB0E |
0ef27446-3353-4ef9-ab8e-885d25505cef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC Show and tell meetup: Economics II
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC Show and tell meetup: Economics II
WHEN: 11 November 2012 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery Plaza, Washington, DC 20001, USA
This will be the second "Show and tell" meetup, again about econo... |
60bd8911-a315-4d4e-89eb-a33ab1576854 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | US public opinion on AI, September 2023
*I am aware of some 28 high-quality public surveys on AI this year so far. I collected them in* [*this wiki page*](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=responses_to_ai:public_opinion_on_ai:surveys_of_public_opinion_on_ai:surveys_of_us_public_opinion_on_ai)*. Claims are mostly ... |
b9325606-85af-4728-bb58-034443eade31 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Aggregating forecasts
[EDIT: I have written an update of this post here]
Epistemic status: confused. I also seem to have spent some time thinking about it and still went with my gut without having a great reason for it.
When you ask several people or build several models to forecast the probability of an event you a... |
89744d3e-f0c7-4a24-8c25-5c22f2aae527 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A bird's eye view of ARC's research
This post includes a "flattened version" of an interactive diagram that cannot be displayed on this site. I recommend reading the original version of the post with the interactive diagram, which can be found here.
Over the last few months, ARC has released a number of pieces of res... |
ec51e3af-aeec-42f8-8c5a-908f66f09a21 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Antonio Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : San Antonio Meetup
WHEN: 13 September 2015 12:30:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 12651 Vance Jackson Rd #118, San Antonio, TX 78230
Bubble tea, frozen yogurt, and discussion at Yumi Berry! All are welcome!
New Meetup to discuss rationality and all things LessWron... |
ea4229dd-a602-4128-86ea-7f716dc85b54 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | GPT-Augmented Blogging
This post was an exercise to find out how much of writing an article I could offload to a machine. In this post, anything written by me is in bold. Anything written by GPT-3 is in regular font. Headings and subheadings are a mix. The GPT-3 output is often highly-curated. Sometimes it is even sti... |
da13e69e-3ec9-4cb7-8b5a-12352c8812e5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Free Will A Myth?
Free Will is basically the ability to choose between different possible courses of action unimpeded, according to Wikipedia (seriously, I shudder to imagine how the world will be without Wikipedia. It’s so useful) It is when you can choose to do what you want when you want without any form of oppo... |
ca0bc216-47cd-4bca-b440-af60f1c17114 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Goodhart Taxonomy: Agreement
> "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."
> -Goodhart’s Law
If you spend a while talking with someone you disagree with and end up agreeing, this is a sign you are both reasoning and communicating well - one of the primary uses of good reasoning is resolving... |
ed89de83-ff09-48e2-b9d6-7508618ce21a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : First Eugene Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : First Eugene Meetup
WHEN: 20 November 2011 01:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 100 W 10th Avenue, Eugene, OR
Any Eugene or Springfield based Less Wrongers are welcome to attend! We will be meeting at 1 PM at the café in front of the library, and may move from t... |
a1f0f297-4284-4024-bb89-52aa73c29b46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What Would You Store to Maximize Value in 100 Years? A Thought Experiment
This is cross-posted from my blog.
When I was a kid, I used to want to not take my action figures out of the packaging because I knew it would mess up the collector’s value of it. After all, it might be worth a lot in the future! Beanie Babies... |
2a9f6a5d-3efd-49bf-8d24-464bc67e8352 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | We are fighting a shared battle (a call for a different approach to AI Strategy)
*Disclaimer 1: This following essay doesn’t purport to offer much original ideas, and I am certainly a non-expert on AI Governance, so please don’t take my word for these things too seriously. I have linked sources throughout the text, an... |
676a1bac-d17f-4512-9d68-03cc8b888d2d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Short Dialogue on the Meaning of Reward Functions
Produced as part of the SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program - Winter 2022 Cohort.
The following is a short slack dialogue between Leon Lang, Quintin Pope, and Peli Grietzer that emerged as part of the SERI-MATS stream on shard theory. Alex Turner encouraged us... |
504855ac-3871-4140-890c-a4dabcfab40b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Optimizing a Week of Machine Learning Learning
status: rough braindump. doesn't really attempt to communicate my background assumptions.
tldr: help Raemon optimize a week of Machine Learning reading/practice, with an eye for relevance towards understanding and/or helping with AI safety
I'd like to spend some time in... |
457ba872-4d9f-482a-8e4a-1309e54827fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, June. 12 - June. 18, 2017
IF IT'S WORTH SAYING, BUT NOT WORTH ITS OWN POST, THEN IT GOES HERE.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh th... |
6ebc2d98-207a-4e0a-bb4a-0298de0156cb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How will we update about scheming?
I mostly work on risks from scheming (that is, misaligned, power-seeking AIs that plot against their creators such as by faking alignment). Recently, I (and co-authors) released "Alignment Faking in Large Language Models", which provides empirical evidence for some components of the ... |
7893dd29-63d1-4bb4-afea-5cc9635f8833 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [paper link] Interpreting systems as solving POMDPs: a step towards a formal understanding of agency
I found this paper while browsing on semantic scholar - it is so far the only paper known by semanticscholar to cite Discovering Agents, and seems to me like a promising refinement. It's going to take me some time to r... |
ce28ada0-cae7-442c-b437-64cc29ed26ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Deception Genre" What Books are like Project Lawful?
This post is spoiler-free
I just finished Project Lawful, a really long, really weird book by Eliezer Yudkowsky.
The book's protagonist is a knowledgable and perceptive target. A conspiracy forms around the target to learn from him while keeping him from finding ... |
ce7006a8-7d4c-4b7a-830f-020ec88df55e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "What Happens When Doctors Only Take Cash"? Everybody, Especially Patients, Wins
|
b86ba228-5ea4-43ed-8a5a-45b3541fc08e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Waterfall diagrams and relative odds
Imagine a waterfall with two streams of water at the top, a red stream and a blue stream. These streams separately approach the top of the waterfall, with some of the water from both streams being diverted along the way, and the remaining water falling into a shared pool below.
!... |
31ee49ff-c4e8-41e5-b590-2fa878ff2473 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | [Linkpost] Mark Zuckerberg confronted about Meta's Llama 2 AI's ability to give users detailed guidance on making anthrax - Business Insider
> Several tech leaders descended upon Capitol Hill last week to discuss the rapid expansion of generative AI. It was a mostly staid meeting until the potential harms from Meta's ... |
22352417-4847-47d9-81d2-82a5715b7568 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Is Humanism A Religion-Substitute?
Today's post, Is Humanism A Religion-Substitute? was originally published on 26 March 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Trying to replace religion with humanism, atheism, or transhumanism doesn't work. If you try to write a hymn to the nonexistence of god, i... |
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