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dfeb1399-fd60-4b18-a842-a03899a3b87f
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
LCDT, A Myopic Decision Theory The looming shadow of deception =============================== Deception encompasses many fears around AI Risk. Especially once a human-like or superhuman level of competence is reached, deception becomes impossible to detect and potentially pervasive. That’s worrying because [converge...
dfd8cf9a-7369-4a32-bb18-fee29679eb41
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Unfaithful Reasoning Can Fool Chain-of-Thought Monitoring This research was completed for LASR Labs 2025 by Benjamin Arnav, Pablo Bernabeu-Pérez, Nathan Helm-Burger, Tim Kostolansky and Hannes Whittingham. The team was supervised by Mary Phuong. Find out more about the program and express interest in upcoming iteratio...
6ab47952-dc92-427d-9437-ba5ec4c98b17
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Open thread, Feb. 16 - Feb. 22, 2015 If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here. ---------------------------------------- Notes for future OT posters: 1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag. 2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately...
202f688d-536d-4485-8190-a8790e612e2d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Announcing the incoming CEO for The Roots of Progress A few months ago we announced a major expansion of our activities, from supporting just my work to supporting a broader network of progress writers. Along with that, we launched a search for a CEO to lead the new organization we are building for this program. I’m v...
ecf4cb4e-0deb-4111-b1cd-380316eef74e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
I Can Tolerate Anything Except Factual Inaccuracies A wonderful post by greyenlightenment that touches on contrarian and intellectualism signalling. It mentions the dilemma between agreeing with the broad thrust of a piece, and agreeing with factual claims of the piece. We are suggested to consider not criticising a p...
6486a66c-098d-4318-a758-5c1bb13e1997
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
AI Safety via Luck *Epistemic Status: I feel confident and tentatively optimistic about the claims made in this post, but am slightly more uncertain about how it generalizes. Additionally, I am concerned about the extent to which this is dual-use for capabilities and*[*exfohazardous*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/y...
533e33c1-dc67-48dc-b4f4-f945f7f018e8
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Old Letter To My Kids About "Critical Thinking" Soon after my divorce in 2009 and before I ever learned about rationality, critical thinking, cognitive biases, or fallacies, I wrote this letter to my kids. They were 13, 11, and 10, I didn't expect them to understand it then, but my idea was for them to have it as a r...
7209076d-0140-4830-bbb3-9457b9567027
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Toward negotiable reinforcement learning: shifting priorities in Pareto optimal sequential decision-making 1 Introduction --------------- It has been argued that the first AI systems with generally super-human cognitive abilities will play a pivotal decision-making role in directing the future of civilization [Bost...
d973c2a8-af9d-483b-b1a7-ec491212aa78
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
What vegan food resources have you found useful? My vegan nutrition project has focused on supplements, but there have been several requests for resources on how to eat better. I'm not well equipped to answer this- I'm not vegan, and my stomach only got even passably good at digestion a year ago. So I'd like to crowd...
c78dd0cb-3112-45c2-95c6-5b802deed70a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Winners of the Essay competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy We’re delighted to announce the winners of the Essay competition on the Automation of Wisdom and Philosophy.  Overview The competition attracted 90 entries in total (only one of which was obviously just the work of an LLM!), taking a wide ...
90743594-4fbf-4c6c-a36e-1c3c8db5084a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
What if Brain Computer Interfaces went exponential? After watching the release of this video from one of the patients in Neuralink's first clinical trials, I decided to post here the prologue of some fiction I have been writing which is set in a world where BCI tech experiences the same exponential growth that we have...
7efd4fad-f719-4850-a3d9-4f0051fccd40
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Talkbox Bagpipe Drones A few weeks ago I wrote: > There's also an instrument in this category that could have been built any time in the last ~500y: talkbox bagpipes. While the mouth-blown pipes are probably most familiar, all the mouth is doing is putting air into a bag. Bellows pipes replace this with an arm-oper...
b2e7ed06-8488-41d2-84a3-b36f46cabeea
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
ChatGPT: Exploring the Digital Wilderness, Findings and Prospects This is a cross-post from New Savanna. That is the title of my latest working paper. It summarizes and synthesizes much of the work I have done with ChatGPT to date and contains the abstracts and contents of all the working papers I have done on Cha...
644688cf-280e-467a-bf7e-00f77a7ef638
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs
Blogs
saving the server-side of the internet: just WASM, saving the server-side of the internet: just WASM, *again* ---------------------------------------------------------- in [a previous post](saving-the-web.html), i propose to abandon the entire client-side web stack in favor of pretty much just [WASM](https://en.wiki...
424ddd4b-11ae-4548-8359-2ed420471696
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Australia-wide mega-meetup Discussion article for the meetup : Australia-wide mega-meetup WHEN: 24 August 2014 07:00:00PM (+1000) WHERE: Australia https://www.facebook.com/events/1547367772141284/ Hello LessWrong! The organised minds of Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra are sanctioning an online hangout for ...
8d93aeb6-42dd-424c-aaf3-467f6853c9ec
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
My preferred framings for reward misspecification and goal misgeneralisation TL;DR ===== * I was feeling quite dissatisfied with a bunch of categories like “inner and outer misalignment” and “reward misspecification and goal misgeneralisation” * I think most of this dissatisfaction stems from them not being able to c...
0a758936-501d-4641-80e8-78ed523880b2
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Short summary of mAIry's room This is a shorter summary of the post "[mAIry's room: AI reasoning to solve philosophical problems](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DLmhJbuhYek5rEhpH/mairy-s-room-ai-reasoning-to-solve-philosophical-problems)". Its aim is to explain the key concepts of that post without going into full te...
57a3f14f-a7f9-40e2-ad5e-bc24f7245437
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
In favour of total utilitarianism over average While it may be intuitive to reduce population ethics to a single lottery, this is incorrect; instead, it can only be reduced to n repeated lotteries, where n is the number of people... This post will argue that within the framework of hedonic utilitarianism, total utili...
d1ba1901-56f9-4405-bf73-8700e23c6267
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Interactive Infographic on Simpson's Paradox Since Simpson's Paradox has been discussed here recently (and not so recently), I thought I'd share this interactive1 infographic that I found via the FlowingData blog. I already understood Simpson's Paradox pretty well, but playing with the sliders helped me get a more int...
83a61394-a6d8-4bb0-8ee7-c464894769d4
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
An inducible group-"meditation" for use in rationality dojos Note: The following outline of my research proposal is unfinished. I posted it in the discussion section to spur conversation and get constructive criticism (successfully, I might add). If you have any suggestions, then please make them. I will be monitoring...
5744275c-3357-4ac4-8e43-f60366f125d4
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Simple embodied cognition hacks I've known that the mind can be affected by the body's actions, but I often forget this when sitting at my computer chair for long stretches, and when standing and interacting in social situations I've subconciously cultivated a passive, non-confrontational but minimally interactive pos...
bf38f2f5-b556-4179-afd8-73f01a9e3f5b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Framing Practicum: Semistable Equilibrium Thanks to John Wentworth for conceiving and executing the concept of a framing practicum, as well as much of the format and language of this post! This is a framing practicum post. We’ll talk about what a semistable equilibrium is, how to recognize semistable equilibria in th...
d619a4f3-2c8a-40de-9fd8-ea6c5cec940f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
On Frequentism and Bayesian Dogma I've heard that you believe that frequentism is correct. But that's obviously wrong, so what gives? DanielFilan I guess first of all I should ask, what do you mean by "frequentism"? DanielFilan I mean classical statistical frequentism. Though somewhat tongue-in-cheek, as I don't thi...
bccba970-a1cb-43ce-9492-1b1f91e633c6
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Expanding Moral Cinematic Universe A subtheme for me this year has been grappling with how to reconcile different facets of my morality.  Part of this has to do with reconcile the virtues of "Protect yourself, maintain slack, be aligned with yourself and your community" and "But, maybe the world is metaphorically...
d2c1b04a-6235-49cd-be2e-72eb19aea0b4
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Simplicity priors with reflective oracles Previously, I described a type of probabilistic oracle machines that I think is powerful enough to allow the implementation of a variant of AIXI that can reason about worlds containing other instances of this variant of AIXI. In this post, I describe how to implement a simplic...
ce0fb16d-25fb-4033-a229-811910a55409
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Hong Kong LW meetup Any LW readers in Asia's world city interested in a meetup? I have a hunch that there might be more of us that the statistics suggest, possibly due to some of us showing up in the analytics as being based in Kowloon, not Hong Kong. At any rate, I'd be surprised if we couldn't find enough people for...
821c45bd-2134-4dbe-88bd-2271a24372eb
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Evaluating 2022 ACX Predictions Previously: 2022 ACX Predictions Buy/Sell/Hold, Evaluating 2021 ACX Predictions As is the yearly tradition, let’s see how we did. Scott noted in his results post that on pure numbers I did pretty well, coming in 54th out of 508 entries. My own evaluation, by my own standards, is I did...
9b77d9fb-4e7d-4659-acb3-8a506bac4646
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs
Blogs
Import AI 337: Why I am confused about AI; penguin dataset; and defending networks via RL with CYBERFORCE Welcome to Import AI, a newsletter about AI research. Import AI runs on lattes, ramen, and feedback from readers. If you’d like to support this (and comment on posts!) please subscribe. Also, this issue sees me t...
71b8e981-ba67-457a-a864-de535fa7b45f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Has there been any work on attempting to use Pascal's Mugging to make an AGI behave? > A mere line in the sand, backed by the clout of a nonexistent simulator, could prove a stronger restraint than a two-foot-thick steel door - Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence Nick Bostrom's idea of anthropic capture is very similar ...
fd09dc58-ce4d-43b2-af26-2b3e6320730f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Progress links and tweets, 2022-10-05 Announcements * It’s time to build: Arnold Ventures is hiring a “VP of Infrastructure” to focus on “the drivers of supply-side bottlenecks” * The World’s Fair Company has launched their poster series, Stories of Our Future (prints available!) (via @camwiese) * Meta (Facebook) A...
64fa29c4-dbfa-40db-a19c-34e17b7243c8
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Brussels meetup Discussion article for the meetup : Brussels meetup WHEN: 14 April 2012 12:00:00PM (+0200) WHERE: Museum of Natural Sciences Rue Vautier 29 B-1000 Brussels During this meetup we will continue discussing our beliefs, using puzzles to improve creative thinking, and brainstorming about what ma...
3da3227d-b1c9-45ff-b2ac-1cfb0820495b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How Many LHC Failures Is Too Many? Recently the Large Hadron Collider was damaged by a mechanical failure.  This requires the collider to be warmed up, repaired, and then cooled down again, so we're looking at a two-month delay. Inevitably, many commenters said, "Anthropic principle!  If the LHC had worked, it would ...
0ae05e9a-535a-47ba-ba8f-6d03c27ba927
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games WHEN: 05 March 2017 03:30:00PM (-0500) WHERE: Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture We will be meeting in the courtyard to hang out, play games, and engage in fun conversation. Upcoming mee...
77d7e084-6dcf-47cb-9241-d5657261f1fc
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Cherry Blossoms Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Cherry Blossoms WHEN: 12 April 2015 03:00:00PM (-0400) WHERE: Enid A. Haupt Garden Note: The meetup location has changed for this week. We will be gathering at the Enid A. Haupt Garden (outside the south entrance to th...
db2381ea-3cb2-461a-be7b-ea6793d5ac66
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Urbana-Champaign: Thinking Fast and Slow Discussion Discussion article for the meetup : Urbana-Champaign: Thinking Fast and Slow Discussion WHEN: 03 November 2013 03:00:00PM (-0500) WHERE: 40.109545,-88.227318 Coordinates are: 40.109545,-88.227318 Meetup will be held in the Courtyard Cafe in the Illini Uni...
f3af5a9d-a769-4e99-a01e-e8eaf666c964
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
DIY Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation. Who wants to go first? There's been a bit of discussion about TDCS here on LessWrong.  If you don't know what TDCS is here's an article from Technology Review. Here's a company (soon) selling a DIY kit to build your own.   > tDCS is one of the coolest pieces of health/ s...
e04a2045-b22d-4832-b2d4-ea749d015c36
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Omicron Post #13: Outlook Omicron is now the dominant strain, so much of what would otherwise have gone into this Omicron post ended up in the latest weekly post instead, and I’m considering the right way to merge the two streams together. In addition to some amount of the usual business, the focus of this post will ...
2eee172f-6c1c-4f77-bedd-2e7e7a17adf1
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Covid 8/4/22: Rebound I’ll be at Future Forum over the weekend. If you’re here, come and say hello. I don’t plan on scheduling a lot of meetings because I hate scheduling, but talking to people is the plan. I have a few people that I know I want to see, but mostly I’m going to be improvising, and whatever happens happ...
7bfe3872-0a75-4efe-bbe8-a6fa6265a10e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Are mass hallucinations a real thing? One of the explanations in the irrationality game thread for UFOs and other paranormal events seen by multiple people at once, like the was mass hysteria. This is also a common explanation given for any seemingly paranormal event that multiple people have independently witnessed. ...
1929c06e-ad1a-4951-9815-174cab62bd9f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
An explanation of evil in an organized world A classic problem with Christianity is the so-called ‘problem of evil’—that friction between the hypothesis that the world’s creator is arbitrarily good and powerful, and a large fraction of actual observations of the world. Coming up with solutions to the problem of evil ...
c975d5e5-7d28-4086-bf27-08c73167183b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Life as metaphor for everything else. Life is highly instructive. Not my own, personal, human life - that's kind of a mess right now. I mean life as in the property shared by all living things. The "are viruses alive?" kind of life. Life is really, really, useful. As a metaphor. Because its associated philosophical ...
84d929bc-2a4d-46f7-b8f4-5c26d8f1247d
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube
Youtube Transcripts
Autonomous technology and the paradox of human-centered design um the talk will unfold out of a few recent publications of mine um the kind of retrospective journey is a personal reflection on how particular concerns and concepts have emerged and to become central in my work most of my work in interaction design over ...
2a164897-61c2-40a2-9582-8ea45cd55b4e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Intelligence without causality TL;DR In this work, I explain how a mind can function in a universe devoid of cause and effect. I show that such a design can accommodate arbitrary restrictions that the laws of physics might happen to place on its outputs. I originally decided to write this post when I decided that I w...
9fa34e7f-3053-4942-ba7c-b752581b9346
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agentmodels
Tutorial: Modeling Agents with Probabilistic Programs
Modeling Agents with Probabilistic Programs --- layout: chapter title: "Reinforcement Learning to Learn MDPs" description: RL for Bandits, Thomson Sampling for learning MDPs. --- ## Introduction Previous chapters assumed that the agent already knew the structure of the environment. In MDPs, the agent knows everythi...
6635be10-6c0b-4a07-a871-220d915e1ac4
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Should we postpone getting a booster due to Omicron, till there are Omicron-specific boosters? Wai Dai writes over in the comments at Omicron Variant Post #1: We’re F***ed, It’s Never Over: > From your linked paper https://www.cell.com/trends/immunology/fulltext/S1471-4906(21)00177-0: [Wai Dai's quote from the paper ...
dbe51163-9537-40fb-a090-4a3afc3b3245
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Intuitive Lagrangian Mechanics Lagrangian mechanics is an alternative formulation of Newtonian mechanics. Newtonian mechanics solves movements using successive approximations. Lagrangian mechanics figures out the whole path all at once. Lagrangian mechanics is useful for solving problems subject to certain constraints...
19710522-4e5c-4054-bf87-b36eed956158
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How do people do remote research collaborations effectively? I think remote research collaboration has a valley-of-inefficiency, where at mid-low levels of collaboration-competence it is much better to just do all research on your own rather than trying to split things up between multiple people (probably due to coord...
dceae613-106c-479a-86dd-561fb320774a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapter 110 This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality and anything related to it. This thread is intended for discussing chapter 110. There is a site dedicated to the story at hpmor.com,...
22cc0c31-cd2c-438a-9c67-6d627499665d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Survey Results: 10 Fun Questions for LWers I posted a quick 10-question survey, and 100 users filled it out. Here are the results! 1. Pick the answer most people will not pick. * HPMOR (26%) * SlateStarCodex (26%) * The Sequences (30%) * A dust speck in the eye (18%) Well done everyone who picked the dust speck...
7773eb66-0584-4a42-9c5d-d37646d3af7a
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs
Blogs
MIRI AMA, and a talk on logical induction Nate, Malo, Jessica, Tsvi, and I will be answering questions tomorrow at the Effective Altruism Forum. If you’ve been curious about anything related to our research, plans, or general thoughts, you’re invited to submit your own questions in the comments below or at **[Ask MIRI...
a5ddfa47-b85f-4417-93df-188a3b4c4cf3
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Fun With DAGs Crossposted here. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) turn out to be really fundamental to our world. This post is just a bunch of neat stuff you can do with them. UTILITY FUNCTIONS Suppose I prefer chicken over steak, steak over pork, and pork over chicken. We can represent my preferences with a directed ...
009500e8-3a8c-4d12-8d04-a7b7a35ed53b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Are stereotypes ever irrational? Harvard's undergraduate admission office will tell you "There is no typical Harvard student."  This platitude ticks me off.  Of course there's such a thing as a typical Harvard student!  Harvard students aren't magically exceptions to the laws of probability.  Just as a robin is a more...
c0f7becc-3676-4799-a2cd-ecb8d7f5f7a4
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
How major governments can help with the most important century I’ve been writing about tangible things we can do today to help the [most important century](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/isENJuPdB3fhjWYHd) go well. Previously, I wrote about [helpful messages to spread](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/gBjP...
aafe823c-ef07-48fc-b655-f811e0f6abc4
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Treat conspicuous consumption like hard nipples? Robin asked, in relation to correlations between sexual prompts and apparently innocent behaviors: > So what would happen if we all became conscious of the above behaviors being strong clues that men are in fact actively trying for promiscuous short term sex?  Would su...
aaf32dc9-0fbd-40a1-ada8-36298b20efc6
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Link] A rational response to the Paris attacks and ISIS Here's my op-ed that uses long-term orientation, probabilistic thinking, numeracy, consider the alternative, reaching our actual goals, avoiding intuitive emotional reactions and attention bias, and other rationality techniques to suggest more rational responses...
d3769946-1e82-4235-a9df-3437f3e70b85
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Space-worthiness A recent post about the Fermi paradox left me wondering about relative difficulties of getting into space, though I don't think it affects those specific arguments. People establishing a presence in space is difficult but at least plausible-- I'm talking about biological people as we are now, and bei...
906d113d-2c25-48a7-8c3a-bd23be2aa796
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
"a dialogue with myself concerning eliezer yudkowsky" (not author) This is a linkpost[1], but I don't think the author would be happy to get commentary from people here on their blog, so I've copied the post here. link is at the bottom, if you really really want to comment on the original; please don't, though. -----...
b6250349-02ad-4135-938c-e31564edb689
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Are You a Solar Deity? Max Muller was one of the greatest religious scholars of the 19th century. Born in Germany, he became fascinated with Eastern religion, and moved to England to be closer to the center of Indian scholarship in Europe. There he mastered English and Sanskrit alike to come out with the first English...
ff1cfc5c-4dcd-4e1e-8ae6-69777cab211d
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Towards Industrial Private AI: A two-tier framework for data and model security I Introduction --------------- With various ubiquitous devices connected through base stations, access points, and Internet of Things (IoT) gateways, Industrial IoT (IIoT) has brought a technological shift to how modern industries acqui...
86f1d5a6-2dac-488b-b9a9-7d67cb70b8ea
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Link] YC President Sam Altman: The Software Revolution Writing about technological revolutions, Y Combinator president Sam Altman warns about the dangers of AI and bioengineering (discussion on Hacker News): > Two of the biggest risks I see emerging from the software revolution—AI and synthetic biology—may put treme...
8f065e60-9f62-4ab5-a8be-6d5c3359f30e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Metamathematics and probability
d78ba1c5-93a6-4298-b636-24868a8afa32
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Analysing: Dangerous messages from future UFAI via Oracles The user cousin_it has pointed out a problem with the counterfactual Oracle idea: the Oracle AIs may form a "bucket chain" bringing back a dangerous message from a future UFAI (unfriendly AI). This is certainly a problem, and though there are ways of reducing...
e5f20c88-4316-4cc2-816e-95afe032863a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
New paper from MIRI: "Toward idealized decision theory" I'm pleased to announce a new paper from MIRI: Toward Idealized Decision Theory. Abstract: > This paper motivates the study of decision theory as necessary for aligning smarter-than-human artificial systems with human interests. We discuss the shortcomings of t...
daac16a0-7811-4b94-86f8-86304d31b051
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Humming is not a free $100 bill Last month I posted about humming as a cheap and convenient way to flood your nose with nitric oxide (NO), a known antiviral. Alas, the economists were right, and the benefits were much smaller than I estimated. The post contained one obvious error and one complication. Both were caugh...
1929ea1e-6f90-44ea-b123-8380ed647750
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Welcome to Portland SSC Meetup We meet the second weekend of every month, alternating Saturdays and Sundays. We tend to discuss, and sometimes play games. If you've read some SSC, you're welcome to come. If you have any questions, or want to know where to go for the meetup, email me (nwalton125@gmail.com).
32710f46-685f-4621-b75d-048bbf2b6b1f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Pre-Hindsight Prompt: Why did 2021 NOT bring a return to normalcy? Feel free to modify the prompt into something like "why was 2021 even worse/more intense than 2020". Also go ahead and substitute 2022, if you think "the direct effects of the pandemic continue into 2021 for a while" is too boring of an answer.    Pr...
65c67510-bd89-40cb-8f46-3af41074b526
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Legible Normativity for AI Alignment: The Value of Silly Rules. Introduction ------------ As attention to the challenge of aligning artificial intelligence with human welfare has grown, it has become commonplace to assert that autonomous agents will have to be built to follow human norms and laws [[Etzioni and Etzi...
43087de9-958c-49ed-a1dd-776f383f798c
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Predictors exist: CDT going bonkers... forever .mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowra...
d5c096b6-9481-4bb5-bcd7-6628228cd591
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Are the consequences of groups usually highly contingent on their details? How much of the impact of an organization is covered by it being ‘a group of size M working on X’, relative to the specifics of how and what they do in working on X? What if we also include a single scale of how functional they are? For instan...
a4db4d45-1c18-4f39-92a5-5292a503a50e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Blindsight and Consciousness Thomas Metzinger is a philosopher who pays lots of attention to cognitive science and psychology, and likes to think about consciousness. Most of the interesting ideas that follow come from his books The Ego Tunnel and Being No One. I hope to write a series of posts summarizing some of the...
ee74810a-8346-4f4a-a251-5fac59d26617
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
GPT-3: A Summary > With massive size comes massive generalization ability: GPT-3 is competitive in many benchmarks w*ithout even tuning on the target task.* [...] Perhaps the most impressive part, though, is that even at such a massive scale, the model still scales smoothly in performance instead of plateauing, implyi...
9dcd0f1d-934e-4b82-bdfd-44cd41835e46
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
A small example of one-step hypotheticals Just a small example of what one-step hypotheticals might mean in theory and in practice. This involves a human H pricing some small object: In theory The human H is (hypothetically) asked various questions that causes it to model how much they would pay for the small vio...
873e85e9-347c-4c2b-82ca-8cf6b783ed6d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
AI #38: Let’s Make a Deal Another busy week. GPT-5 starts, Biden and Xi meet and make somewhat of a deal, GPTs get explored, the EU AI Act on the verge of collapse by those trying to kill the part that might protect us, multiple very good podcasts. A highly interesting paper on potential deceptive alignment. Despite ...
7a68747b-af25-4ada-8bd7-2a61feb98f55
LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct
LessWrong
"Here is a 2-hour slide presentation I made for college students and teens: You Are A Brain It's an introduction to realist thinking, a tour of all the good stuff people don't realize until they include a node for their brain's map in their brain's map. All the concepts come from Eliezer's posts on Overcoming Bias. I p...
6c6e337e-e18c-44b6-970d-6fa583452b85
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
A shift in arguments for AI risk The linked post is work done by Tom Adamczewski while at FHI. I think this sort of expository and analytic work is very valuable, so I'm cross-posting it here (with his permission). Below is an extended summary; for the full document, see his linked blog post. Many people now work on ...
b0147741-9c29-4226-9669-9e6f324bb1b5
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
AI takeover tabletop RPG: "The Treacherous Turn" [Long ago I fantasized](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qakRE5XTTmnrkJqgp/two-ai-risk-related-game-design-ideas) about an AI-takeover-themed tabletop roleplaying game. Well, now a group of designers are working hard to make it happen! They need playtesters. So I'm signa...
755d30f0-7510-4e4c-b7ef-ee711a9e96ad
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Re: Attempted Gears Analysis of AGI Intervention Discussion With Eliezer TL;DR I think AGI architectures will be quirky and diverse. Consequently, there are many possible futures. My thoughts on the AI alignment problem are far more optimistic than (my best measure of) mainstream opinions among AI safety researchers (...
bb658f09-7010-4e38-a621-225a0efd24bc
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Personal decisions the leading cause of death I've had this paper (pdf) in my "for LW" pile for a while, I didn't want to dump it in the open thread to have it promptly drowned out but neither could I think of much more to say to make it worth a top-level post on the main LW. > This paper analyzes the relationships b...
641b386e-f61c-4cb3-9c28-120d04cfb75f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Episode 3 of Tsuyoku Naritai! (the 'becoming stronger podcast): Nike Timers Latest episode is up! In this episode, we learn rationality from Shia LeBeouf. https://anchor.fm/tsuyokunaritai/episodes/Episode-3---Nike-Timers-e3trl2 http://bit.ly/2GZnB0E
0ef27446-3353-4ef9-ab8e-885d25505cef
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Washington DC Show and tell meetup: Economics II Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC Show and tell meetup: Economics II WHEN: 11 November 2012 03:00:00PM (-0500) WHERE: National Portrait Gallery Plaza, Washington, DC 20001, USA This will be the second "Show and tell" meetup, again about econo...
60bd8911-a315-4d4e-89eb-a33ab1576854
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
US public opinion on AI, September 2023 *I am aware of some 28 high-quality public surveys on AI this year so far. I collected them in* [*this wiki page*](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=responses_to_ai:public_opinion_on_ai:surveys_of_public_opinion_on_ai:surveys_of_us_public_opinion_on_ai)*. Claims are mostly ...
b9325606-85af-4728-bb58-034443eade31
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Aggregating forecasts [EDIT: I have written an update of this post here] Epistemic status: confused. I also seem to have spent some time thinking about it and still went with my gut without having a great reason for it. When you ask several people or build several models to forecast the probability of an event you a...
89744d3e-f0c7-4a24-8c25-5c22f2aae527
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
A bird's eye view of ARC's research This post includes a "flattened version" of an interactive diagram that cannot be displayed on this site. I recommend reading the original version of the post with the interactive diagram, which can be found here. Over the last few months, ARC has released a number of pieces of res...
ec51e3af-aeec-42f8-8c5a-908f66f09a21
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : San Antonio Meetup Discussion article for the meetup : San Antonio Meetup WHEN: 13 September 2015 12:30:00PM (-0500) WHERE: 12651 Vance Jackson Rd #118, San Antonio, TX 78230 Bubble tea, frozen yogurt, and discussion at Yumi Berry! All are welcome! New Meetup to discuss rationality and all things LessWron...
ea4229dd-a602-4128-86ea-7f716dc85b54
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
GPT-Augmented Blogging This post was an exercise to find out how much of writing an article I could offload to a machine. In this post, anything written by me is in bold. Anything written by GPT-3 is in regular font. Headings and subheadings are a mix. The GPT-3 output is often highly-curated. Sometimes it is even sti...
da13e69e-3ec9-4cb7-8b5a-12352c8812e5
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Is Free Will A Myth? Free Will is basically the ability to choose between different possible courses of action unimpeded, according to Wikipedia (seriously, I shudder to imagine how the world will be without Wikipedia. It’s so useful) It is when you can choose to do what you want when you want without any form of oppo...
ca0bc216-47cd-4bca-b440-af60f1c17114
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Goodhart Taxonomy: Agreement > "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." > -Goodhart’s Law   If you spend a while talking with someone you disagree with and end up agreeing, this is a sign you are both reasoning and communicating well - one of the primary uses of good reasoning is resolving...
ed89de83-ff09-48e2-b9d6-7508618ce21a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : First Eugene Meetup Discussion article for the meetup : First Eugene Meetup WHEN: 20 November 2011 01:00:00PM (-0800) WHERE: 100 W 10th Avenue, Eugene, OR Any Eugene or Springfield based Less Wrongers are welcome to attend! We will be meeting at 1 PM at the café in front of the library, and may move from t...
a1f0f297-4284-4024-bb89-52aa73c29b46
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
What Would You Store to Maximize Value in 100 Years? A Thought Experiment This is cross-posted from my blog. When I was a kid, I used to want to not take my action figures out of the packaging because I knew it would mess up the collector’s value of it.  After all, it might be worth a lot in the future! Beanie Babies...
2a9f6a5d-3efd-49bf-8d24-464bc67e8352
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
We are fighting a shared battle (a call for a different approach to AI Strategy) *Disclaimer 1: This following essay doesn’t purport to offer much original ideas, and I am certainly a non-expert on AI Governance, so please don’t take my word for these things too seriously. I have linked sources throughout the text, an...
676a1bac-d17f-4512-9d68-03cc8b888d2d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
A Short Dialogue on the Meaning of Reward Functions Produced as part of the SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program - Winter 2022 Cohort. The following is a short slack dialogue between Leon Lang, Quintin Pope, and Peli Grietzer that emerged as part of the SERI-MATS stream on shard theory. Alex Turner encouraged us...
504855ac-3871-4140-890c-a4dabcfab40b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Optimizing a Week of Machine Learning Learning status: rough braindump. doesn't really attempt to communicate my background assumptions. tldr: help Raemon optimize a week of Machine Learning reading/practice, with an eye for relevance towards understanding and/or helping with AI safety I'd like to spend some time in...
457ba872-4d9f-482a-8e4a-1309e54827fa
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Open thread, June. 12 - June. 18, 2017 IF IT'S WORTH SAYING, BUT NOT WORTH ITS OWN POST, THEN IT GOES HERE. ---------------------------------------- Notes for future OT posters: 1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag. 2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh th...
6ebc2d98-207a-4e0a-bb4a-0298de0156cb
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
How will we update about scheming? I mostly work on risks from scheming (that is, misaligned, power-seeking AIs that plot against their creators such as by faking alignment). Recently, I (and co-authors) released "Alignment Faking in Large Language Models", which provides empirical evidence for some components of the ...
7893dd29-63d1-4bb4-afea-5cc9635f8833
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[paper link] Interpreting systems as solving POMDPs: a step towards a formal understanding of agency I found this paper while browsing on semantic scholar - it is so far the only paper known by semanticscholar to cite Discovering Agents, and seems to me like a promising refinement. It's going to take me some time to r...
ce28ada0-cae7-442c-b437-64cc29ed26ef
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
"Deception Genre" What Books are like Project Lawful? This post is spoiler-free I just finished Project Lawful, a really long, really weird book by Eliezer Yudkowsky. The book's protagonist is a knowledgable and perceptive target. A conspiracy forms around the target to learn from him while keeping him from finding ...
ce7006a8-7d4c-4b7a-830f-020ec88df55e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
"What Happens When Doctors Only Take Cash"? Everybody, Especially Patients, Wins
b86ba228-5ea4-43ed-8a5a-45b3541fc08e
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital
Arbital
Waterfall diagrams and relative odds Imagine a waterfall with two streams of water at the top, a red stream and a blue stream. These streams separately approach the top of the waterfall, with some of the water from both streams being diverted along the way, and the remaining water falling into a shared pool below. !...
31ee49ff-c4e8-41e5-b590-2fa878ff2473
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
[Linkpost] Mark Zuckerberg confronted about Meta's Llama 2 AI's ability to give users detailed guidance on making anthrax - Business Insider > Several tech leaders descended upon Capitol Hill last week to discuss the rapid expansion of generative AI. It was a mostly staid meeting until the potential harms from Meta's ...
22352417-4847-47d9-81d2-82a5715b7568
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[SEQ RERUN] Is Humanism A Religion-Substitute? Today's post, Is Humanism A Religion-Substitute? was originally published on 26 March 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):   > Trying to replace religion with humanism, atheism, or transhumanism doesn't work. If you try to write a hymn to the nonexistence of god, i...