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2f44d1b4-ce45-4bf4-bb8b-84c3384b073d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Natural Categories Update
One concern in the AI-Alignment problem is that neural networks are "alien minds". Namely the representations that they learn of the world are too weird/different to allow effect communication of human goals and ideas.
For example, EY writes
> there is no known way to use the paradigm of l... |
936af9ce-3aa0-48a8-ae2b-00f5c2c1ee6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Death Feels
[Epistemic Status: rambly and exploratory, hoping for some serious discussion]
----------------------------------------
It's 2030, the AGI takeoff ended badly and humanity is wiped out by a misaligned AGI. You die. The end.
The end? The above is a cliché many of us have in mind when discussing scena... |
20ca154d-c5dc-4ded-a728-684b886c1fc3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Worst Form Of Government (Except For Everything Else We've Tried)
Churchill famously called democracy “the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time” - referring presumably to the relative success of his native Britain, the US, and more generally Western Europ... |
35c7873f-fdf7-4639-97e6-06b559ff455f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Syllable
Status: fun to write, very derivative, ambivalent about content.
This post responds to Why and How to Name Things.
In the evolution of language, new words are constantly produced, bubbling in and out of primordial concept-space like quantum foam. Most of them are awkward, unevocative, and noncentral, fallin... |
20cf2498-11a6-43aa-9eda-b4647ec8637e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Machine Learning Consent
For years, researchers have trained machine learning systems on whatever data they could find. People mostly haven't cared about this or paid attention, I think because the systems hadn't been very good. Recently, however, some very impressive systems have come out, including ones that answer ... |
cc60338f-0cbd-40ee-ab6e-c980e5a69cd6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Resources for AI Alignment Cartography
**I want to make an *actionable* map of AI alignment.**
After years of reading papers, blog posts, online exchanges, books, and occasionally hidden documents about AI alignment and AI risk, and having extremely interesting conversations about it, most arguments I encounter now f... |
d857cc0f-7eb1-4c4d-a74d-cf8ef15b578a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Labor Participation is an Alignment Risk
TLDR: This paper explores and outlines why AI-related reductions in Labor participation (e.g., real unemployment) is a significant and high-priority alignment risk that the alignment community should more seriously consider as a potential underlying systemic risk factor. Constr... |
0e7c2fa6-b8c1-48d1-91bd-f2043f9b4bd0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is Morality?
The PDF version can be read here.
The audio version can be listened to here:
Morality has the following components:
* Collective values.
* The individual internalization of collective values.
* The assumption that collective values are objective, and thus “moral”.
* A folk theory of morality.... |
75d48405-625d-4d49-af50-128b02153a91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Earning to Give vs. Altruistic Career Choice Revisited
A commonly voiced sentiment in the effective altruist community is that the best way to do the most good is generally to make as much money as possible, with a view toward donating to the most cost-effective charities. This is often referred to as “earning to give... |
134bce03-235f-4f12-b033-e6b4a3856a11 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | explaining "."
explaining "."
--------------
i occasionally send people the following message, on text chat platforms:
> .
>
>
i've been asked what it means often enough that at this point i'm making a short blogpost.
"." is the empty message. it conveys whatever it means to say nothing, but explicitely — w... |
d298a4f1-78ea-41be-90f6-4b13bd7e056e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Correct Use of Analogy
In response to: Failure by Analogy, Surface Analogies and Deep Causes
Analogy gets a bad rap around here, and not without reason. The kinds of argument from analogy condemned in the above links fully deserve the condemnation they get. Still, I think it's too easy to read them and walk away ... |
daf32422-4fe9-4c7d-9faf-6059b157b3ff | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | the Belief In Society compass
the Belief In Society compass
----------------------------- |
5f2ba278-4be7-434d-9417-b6bd295f6428 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Compression Moves for Prediction
Imagine that you want to predict the behavior of some system -- the weather, a computer program, a real-world language... However you go about it, I bet you will do some compression: you'll find simple and minimal and concrete ways to think about the vast complexity of your system that... |
d1c923b9-b6f8-47ba-95af-fe6f0db61897 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Quantifying the pathways to life using assembly spaces
1
Quantifying the pathways to life using assembly spaces
Stuart M. Marshall,1 Douglas G. Moore,2 Alastair R. G. Murray,1 Sara I. Walker,2,3* and Leroy
Cronin1*
1 School of Chemistry, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UK.
2 BEYOND Center for Fundam... |
e76fdf05-68ef-48fa-b722-7983deeed116 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | QNRs: Toward Language for Intelligent Machines
>FHI TECHNICAL REPORT <
QNRs
Toward Language for Intelligent Machines
K. Eric Drexler
Senior Research Fellow
eric.drexler@oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk
Technical Report #2021-3
Cite as:
Drexler, K.E. (2021): “QNRs: Toward Language for Intelligent Machines”, Technical
Report #2021... |
4b7c233e-e7b2-437a-8f31-188fe3ae2e20 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Alignment as Function Fitting
In this post, I spell out some fairly basic ideas, that seem important to me. Maybe they are so basic that everyone finds them obvious, but in the spirit of this piece, I thought I would write them up anyway.
tl;dr I start off by looking at using linear regression to model data. I examin... |
dab412ba-5fda-4e4c-ae50-b0ede39f7dea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interview with Aella, Part I
Cross-posted from Putanumonit.
Things that happen offline notice: if you’re reading this I strongly predict that you will enjoy attending a Slate Star Codex meetup. I will be at the New York meetup on Saturday 9/21, come say hi!
This is part 1 of the interview, talking about Aella’s back... |
02e6ccd8-c4a3-4d34-9496-b3b632f7e0e6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Imagining yourself as a digital person (two sketches)
Today’s world
Transformative AI
Digital people
World of
Misaligned AI
World run by
Something else
or
or
Stable, galaxy-wide
civilization
>
> This is a short, casual piece about [digital people](https://www.cold-takes.com/how-digital-... |
7e286c41-fa77-4cc8-b06b-8d4a5b97369c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [ASoT] Simulators show us behavioural properties by default
I’m trying out making a few posts with less polish and smaller scope, to iterate more quickly on my thoughts and write about some interesting ideas in isolation before having fully figured them out. Expect middling confidence in any conclusions drawn, and occ... |
98b843c4-9594-40b0-a4aa-60ee52ae70f4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : SF Meetup: Projects
Discussion article for the meetup : SF Meetup: Projects
WHEN: 12 December 2016 06:15:07PM (-0800)
WHERE: 1769 15th St., SF
We’ll be meeting to work on projects!
Near the beginning, we’ll go around and talk about what we’ll be working on, then do a couple of pomodoros quietly. At some p... |
62517e02-e221-4035-8f14-640f4c5a82ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vision of a positive Singularity
Introduction
Many people feel significant anxiety about how AI and superintelligence will play out, regarding both the ultimate outcome and the intermediate stages. There is the sense that some kind of loss is inevitable as humanity becomes more powerful in this way. There is also the... |
67b40faf-53d3-4302-b366-fe5a4b460d76 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Exercise in rationality: popular quotes, revisited
A friend recently shared an image of Lincoln with the quote, "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than speak and remove all doubt."
Correcting that idea, I replied with the following: "Speak! Reveal your foolishness, and open yourself so that others may ... |
ba6103a1-0ebb-4d37-9a8f-ce910f5ac9cd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes 27
"Believing this statement will make you happier."
-- Ryan Lortie
"Make changes based on your strongest opportunities, not your most convenient ones."
-- MegaTokyo
"The mind is a cruel, lying, unreliable bastard that can't be trusted with even an ounce of responsibility. If you ... |
49684391-e882-4937-8e04-26af40e7d1bd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | List
A list is an ordered collection of objects, such as `[1, 2, 3](https://arbital.com/p/0,)` or `["blue", 0, "shoe"](https://arbital.com/p/"red",)`. Lists are generally denoted by square brackets, with elements separated by commas. Lists allow repetition (unlike [sets](https://arbital.com/p/3jz)) and are ordered (un... |
4041dc52-3d28-459f-b9dc-49eb61ddd462 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | United We Align: Harnessing Collective Human Intelligence for AI Alignment Progress
Summary: Collective Human Intelligence (CHI) represents both the current height of general intelligence and a model of alignment among intelligent agents. However, CHI's efficiency and inner workings remain underexplored. This research... |
e47edf46-3610-45c4-a83c-6277c5af01df | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Protectionism will Slow the Deployment of AI
I believe I’m more optimistic than the average LWer that regulation will be passed that slows down AI capabilities research. The current capabilities of language models threaten the interests of the politically salient professional managerial middle class, which will cause ... |
b63c1cf1-1204-42ea-99a1-e468dce7f866 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where are the Benefits from Conversation?
(epistemic status: fairly speculative)
Recently, I've been thinking about where the main benefits of conversation lie, and I've come to some interesting early conclusions.
Most of the benefits of private conversations come from effects they have on the immediate participants... |
84df7987-557d-4bc5-a32c-3d2daed8943f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Call for new SIAI Visiting Fellows, on a rolling basis
Last summer, 15 Less Wrongers, under the auspices of SIAI, gathered in a big house in Santa Clara (in the SF bay area), with whiteboards, existential risk-reducing projects, and the ambition to learn and do.
Now, the new and better version has arrived. We’re tak... |
a2447905-8fc1-4c3e-8e57-5421b2b311c9 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post3111
In " Risks from Learned Optimization ," we talked about a variety of different forms of pseudo-alignment—that is, ways in which a trained model's objective (its mesa-objective ) can be misaligned off-distribution with the loss function it was trained under (the base objective ). In particular, we distingu... |
a2e63511-9fbb-4392-a117-70a3f3d25f76 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | User-Controlled Algorithmic Feeds
I've been playing with Mastodon more, and the main way you see what other people have posted is by reading your feed. This consists of everything any of the people you follow has posted or boosted. If you're always going to read everything that's come out since your last visit, which ... |
49905707-4a44-48a6-89e4-d060673791c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Uninformed Elevation of Trust
I don't know if there is a standard name for this phenomenon (other than the related Gell-Mann amnesia effect, e.g. "The Sequences are great, except in my area of expertise, where they are terrible.").
Here is the gist: we trust the data as much as we trust the source, regardless of how ... |
9671bcf4-4fec-40a9-938c-fd7c585da9c8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] On Being Decoherent
Today's post, On Being Decoherent was originally published on 27 April 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> When a sensor measures a particle whose amplitude distribution stretches over space - perhaps seeing if the particle is to the left or right of some dividing line - the... |
681f3fed-4f42-4c21-bfd0-50617e9f6c55 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Weekly Wiki Workshop and suggested articles
Now 12 days old, LWiki is still growing. Most of the articles are stubs, but progress is being made. Eliezer confirmed that an official wiki hosted on LW is eventually coming, so be careful about linking to the wiki, but don't let that deter you from adding content.
Standa... |
0f651f01-2b8f-451c-840e-a04290d53717 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Bat and Ball Problem Revisited
Cross posted from my personal blog.
In this post, I'm going to assume you've come across the Cognitive Reflection Test before and know the answers. If you haven't, it's only three quick questions, go and do it now.
One of the striking early examples in Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and... |
00c789af-6537-4c8d-b730-ba03ec52cca8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How can you use music to boost learning?
I often find that I am able to appreciate the beauty of a subject more while listening to music (especially instrumental music). Hearing the notes while I think about the topic helps creates a lot of subconscious connections with the material, solidifying what I am learning as ... |
0949f116-fbf6-4d96-9023-e6e2bb447c05 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Observations on Teaching for Four Weeks
I just finished a program where I taught two classes of high school seniors, two classes a day for four weeks, as part of my grad program.
This experience was a lot of fun and it was rewarding, but it was really surprising, and even if only in small ways prompted me to update ... |
4715c8b1-05e1-4796-b6d2-950f6076696d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can LLMs Simulate Internal Evaluation? A Case Study in Self-Generated Recommendations
Author: Yap Chan Chen
Independent Researcher, Malaysia
chanchen83@hotmail.com
Abstract: This post presents an exploratory study into how large language models (LLMs) respond to prompts that invite them to simulate evaluative judgmen... |
15446e8a-c2f6-4e5b-8f17-9404231b6736 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | unoptimal superintelligence loses
unoptimal superintelligence loses
---------------------------------
(edit: [maybe it doesn't](unoptimal-superint-doesnt-lose.html))
what if a phenomena is powerful enough to kill everyone, but not smart enough to be optimal at reasoning? (such as a grey goo event, or a "dumb" supe... |
4ed37d95-3884-441d-ba90-8922490415f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | 20 minutes of work as an artist in one future
I am an artist.
”Eleven evil wizard schoolgirls in an archduke's library, dressed in red and black Asmodean schoolgirl uniforms, perched on armchairs and sofas”[1]
Sigh, at least it’s not more catgirls. I don’t even draw them well.
I stretched briefly before starting... |
f8d5edfb-18d1-40a0-8ead-bf930fc57df9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to teach things well
(This is a post on my thoughts on good teaching techniques from a daily blogging project, that I thought might be of interest to LessWrong readers)
Introduction
This is a blog post on how to teach things well. I’ll mostly be focusing on forms of teaching that involve preparation and structur... |
2305b4b0-e34e-44e1-affe-ff6edba2156b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A simple-minded theory of "observer fluid"
Eliezer has proposed a puzzle:
> So here's a simple algorithm for winning the lottery:
>
> Buy a ticket. Suspend your computer program just before the lottery drawing - which should of course be a quantum lottery, so that every ticket wins somewhere. Program your computat... |
09d03783-9e9f-47d9-87bf-16d34bc860be | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agentmodels | Tutorial: Modeling Agents with Probabilistic Programs | Modeling Agents with Probabilistic Programs
---
layout: chapter
title: Reasoning about agents
description: Overview of Inverse Reinforcement Learning. Inferring utilities and beliefs from choices in Gridworld and Bandits.
is_section: true
---
## Introduction
The previous chapters have shown how to compute optimal ac... |
fff79916-6faf-43e3-873d-1000a0873db1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Once we cure aging, what happens to prisoners serving life sentences?
Biogerontologist Aubrey de Grey claimed that the first person who will live to 1,000 years old has already been born. He believes this unprecedented expansion in lifespan will occur with Longevity Escape Velocity (LEV).
LEV is defined by technologi... |
8b3ecba9-b1e9-43d6-af08-e5ec1ef5076c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | PhD student and postdoc positions philosophy of AI in Erlangen (Germany)
The Centre for Philosophy and AI Research in Erlangen, Germany, directed by Prof. Vincent Müller, is looking for four (funded) PhD students, one postdoctoral researcher and one director of research. This is a great chance for philosophers, or asp... |
8b4013fb-ed69-4a94-840b-4d860ec63316 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Building a House" Review
I was recently reading Byron Barton's 1981 book, Building a House. While it claims to be an end-to-end overview of the process of modern (for the time) home construction, there are enough errors in the illustrations that I wouldn't recommend it as a basic text.
For example, here's how they s... |
9719c951-92e8-4973-9f60-709741010b91 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "But It Doesn't Matter"
If you ever find yourself saying, "Even if Hypothesis H is true, it doesn't have any decision-relevant implications," you are rationalizing! The fact that H is interesting enough for you to be considering the question at all (it's not some arbitrary trivium like the 1923th binary digit of π, or... |
b3f615ef-af11-41b7-9613-0080aaaf2169 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Eight Short Studies On Excuses
The Clumsy Game-Player
You and a partner are playing an Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma. Both of you have publicly pre-committed to the tit-for-tat strategy. By iteration 5, you're going happily along, raking up the bonuses of cooperation, when your partner unexpectedly presses the "defect"... |
22fbe90a-a72b-460b-ba64-8b6ef4130618 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes July 2016
Another month, another rationality quotes thread. The rules are:
* Provide sufficient information (URL, title, date, page number, etc.) to enable a reader to find the place where you read the quote, or its original source if available. Do not quote with only a name.
* Post all quotes se... |
8b1a2cdd-e1c0-45e9-9dfe-71bd5592729f | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "(Cross-posted from the EA Forum)This post was written by Buck and Claire Zabel but it’s written in Buck’s voice, and “I” here refers to Buck, because it’s about grantmaking that he might do. (Claire contributed in her personal capacity, not as an Open Phil grantmaker). In addition to accepting applications for EA grou... |
4ce9cd44-787d-42b1-bb4f-c89dcbd3af6a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conjecture internal survey: AGI timelines and probability of human extinction from advanced AI
We put together a survey to study the opinions of timelines and probability of human extinction of the employees at Conjecture. The questions were based on previous public surveys and prediction markets, to ensure that the r... |
d74338e2-de37-422b-add9-845ee167fe10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to impress students with recent advances in ML?
I am preparing resources for an equivalent of the mlab camp, organized by EffiSciences, that will be held in France in a month to train students to become prosaic alignment researchers.
3/4 of the participants are already aligned with existential risks related to A... |
163956be-f0f5-4c03-b740-60cb1818b124 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Accidental Terraforming
On the subject of climate change - specifically anthropogenic (human-caused) climate change - much ink has been spilled. Or keys typed, I suppose, since the internet doesn’t actually use ink.
Regardless, the Great War over acknowledging the existence of Climate Change seems to be over; enough ... |
533b6768-8ebe-4081-9efd-e789405d4f51 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Build a Metaculus Forecasting Bot in 30 Minutes: A Practical Guide
We've created a video tutorial showing how to build a forecasting bot using our template in about 30 minutes.
The template bot consistently ranks in the top 10 of Metaculus's AI Forecasting Benchmark Series using a basic GPT-4/AskNews implementation.
... |
b8b11a3d-5cd7-429a-bf61-d7ba38b21ec8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interpreting Modular Addition in MLPs
Summary
In this post, we investigate one of Neel Nanda's 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability, namely problem A3.3: Interpret a 2L MLP (one hidden layer) trained to do modular addition.
The network seems to learn the following function:
logit(c)∝∑Ni=0relu(u... |
77f792da-4f9f-4f8c-b338-f82c90ca52d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Inner Ring by C. S. Lewis
Note: In @Nathan Young's words "It seems like great essays should go here and be fed through the standard LessWrong algorithm. There is possibly a copyright issue here, but we aren't making any money off it either."
What follows is a full copy of the C. S. Lewis essay "The Inner Ring" t... |
ae368684-1726-4c28-9abe-82313c980728 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What to do after inventing AGI?
Imagine a research team makes a breakthrough when experimenting with neural networks. They train a model with only 1 billion parameters, and it displays general intelligence that exceeds GPT-3s. They conclude that a 100 billion parameter model, possible to train for a few million dollar... |
af6a87d2-fb9f-4c2f-b13c-062fd5026750 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Back to the Past to the Future
You are sitting in your bedroom, dorm, tent, sidewalk, wherever you are staying right now, reading these words, when a dark void appears in your peripheral vision. A figure walks out of the void. They look a bit different, but also familiar. Surprise! It’s you from the future! And you... |
9b2563bc-b845-466e-b0d6-037aa3f5bbf0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are there English-speaking meetups in Frankfurt/Munich/Zurich?
I'll be in Stuttgart, Germany for a few months this summer for work. It's about equidistant from Frankfurt, Munich, and Zurich. Do any of these cities have regular meetups where English is spoken, at least in part?
About me -- I run a software startup, wh... |
705c8d0b-3e19-4e02-b2f8-169ebcf45881 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Researchers believe they have found a way for artists to fight back against AI style capture
The real details are here: What is Glaze?
I wonder how robust this technique is to adversarial attacks. It claims to work at the pixel level, masking an image by distorting the pixels in ways invisible to the human eye but wh... |
8fbe4703-5383-4b9c-be6f-9025ab8791d5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How Do You Interpret the Goal of LessWrong and Its Community?
I lurk LessWrong and am grappling with a perceived misalignment between its stated goals—improving reasoning and decision-making—and the type of content often shared. I am not referring to content that I disagree with, or content that I think is poorly writ... |
a873e7c2-63d3-48fb-8d35-fc17c2704161 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Volunteers needed to work on LessWrong's public goods problem
I want to figure out how to solve LessWrong's public goods problem. There are lots of projects that lots of people are moderately interested in but not interested enough to do themselves. For example:
* Further contributions to the Science of Winning at L... |
f9101a4e-0b16-4dd3-8179-6c3103a424a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayes Slays Goodman's Grue
This is a first stab at solving Goodman's famous grue problem. I haven't seen a post on LW about the grue paradox, and this surprised me since I had figured that if any arguments would be raised against Bayesian LW doctrine, it would be the grue problem. I haven't looked at many proposed sol... |
0a71902c-97e2-408c-a002-a5266dd96602 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Testbed evals: evaluating AI safety even when it can’t be directly measured
A few collaborators and I recently released the paper, “Generalization Analogies (GENIES): A Testbed for Generalizing AI Oversight to Hard-To-Measure Domains. (tweet thread). In this post, I’ll explain how the GENIES benchmark relates to a b... |
6f2ddd66-397d-4a12-a9d6-d0181f9260aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is an "anti-Occamian prior"?
I've seen references to "anti-Occamian priors" in the Sequences, where Eliezer was talking about how not all possible minds would agree with Occam's Razor. I'm not sure how such a prior could consistently exist.
It seems like Occam's Razor just logically follows from the basic premis... |
f30f2a88-8d40-4604-b609-a27e6530e43f | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "1. Money wants to be linear, but wants even more to be logarithmic.People sometimes talk as if risk-aversion (or risk-loving) is irrational in itself. It is true that VNM-rationality implies you just take expected values, and hence, don't penalize variance or any such thing. However, you are allowed to have a concave ... |
b9761685-9fb0-43a8-9fd0-ea3abc5a7c12 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Misnaming and Other Issues with OpenAI's “Human Level” Superintelligence Hierarchy
Bloomberg reports that OpenAI internally has benchmarks for “Human-Level AI.” They have 5 levels, with the first being the achieved level of having intelligent conversation, to level 2, “[unassisted, PhD-level] Reasoners,” level 3, “Age... |
8a9b06ef-3d7b-471c-8b11-83587fc1934e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Center for Sustainable Nanotechnology
Those concerned about existential risks may be interested to learn that, as of last September, the National Science Foundation is funding a Center for Sustainable Nanotechnology. Though I haven't yet seen anywhere where they explicitly characterize nanotechnology as an existe... |
941ec101-0904-433a-b44b-aa486c6562d9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Calling all MIRI supporters for unique May 6 giving opportunity!
(Cross-posted from MIRI's blog. MIRI maintains Less Wrong, with generous help from Trike Apps, and much of the core content is written by salaried MIRI staff members.)
Update: I'm liveblogging the fundraiser here.
Read our strategy below, then give he... |
77c0cbeb-cc74-47da-8eb3-a005b847a7c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Believing and Deciding - Melbourne Rationality Dojo, May 2017
Discussion article for the meetup : Believing and Deciding - Melbourne Rationality Dojo, May 2017
WHEN: 21 May 2017 03:30:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: Henley Club
Lets run though some of the rationality community's favourite lessons on believing and deci... |
cadb9cfc-0db8-4cd9-bce0-ce09d9f17698 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Video] Why Not Just: Think of AGI Like a Corporation? (Robert Miles)
Robert Miles has been creating AI-Alignment related videos for a while now, but I found this one particularly good.
Here is the automatically generated Youtube transcript. Obviously it's not very good, but at least it makes the post searchable (In ... |
a003e198-514a-4d7e-a757-708ed3f9efd4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nash equilibriums can be arbitrarily bad
Go hungry with Almost Free Lunches
Consider the following game, called "Almost Free Lunches" (EDIT: this seems to be a variant of the traveller dilemma). You name any pound-and-pence amount between £0 and £1,000,000; your opponent does likewise. Then you will both get whichever... |
712cb6b9-8ab6-49ba-a438-8ce8be153b7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A simulation basilisk
Important note: although I use the term "basilisk" to refer to this situation because of its similarities with the famous one, note that neither this situation nor the other famous "basilisk" are actually dangerous for humans to think about, they only affect superintelligences.
Suppose that we a... |
d5dee537-c4eb-47b9-b911-8086785b6a67 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New edition of "Rationality: From AI to Zombies"
MIRI is releasing a new edition of Rationality: From AI to Zombies, including the first set of R:AZ print books. As of this morning, print versions of Map and Territory (volume 1) and How to Actually Change Your Mind (volume 2) are now available on Amazon (1, 2), and we... |
6b5c2747-176d-4a42-993e-c8f694c542c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A map: Causal structure of a global catastrophe
Pdf: http://immortality-roadmap.com/levelglobcat.pdf
|
b95a8f1d-9738-441b-9fd2-0e2b05e0ec87 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learn Three Things Every Day
In the Game of Thrones series, there is an ongoing side plot in which a character is trained by a secretive organization to become an assassin. As part of her training, one of the senior assassins demands that she report to him three new things she has learnt every day. by making a natural... |
dae0638b-271d-490c-8237-84d6d4df42ea | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Defining Myopia
IID vs Myopia
=============
In [a comment to Partial Agency](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4hdHto3uHejhY2F3Q/partial-agency#kkejCdMFEoD2T2874), Rohin summarized his understanding of the post. He used the iid assumption as a critical part of his story. Initially, I thought that this was a good descri... |
35811e76-b977-4fa1-9782-33b03179ff8f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Speculation on Path-Dependance in Large Language Models.
Epistemic Status: Highly Speculative. I spent less than a day thinking about this in particular, and though I have spent a few months studying large language models, I have never trained a language model. I am likely wrong about many things. I have not seen rese... |
3cf2332c-f6f1-44c1-af7a-ece5c3f84d28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hydroxychloroquine: the day science stopped
This is a translation of (what I consider the most important bits) part (32%) of the original article "Hidroxicloroquina: o dia em que a ciência parou" from Luis Cláudio Correia, posted on Evidence Based Medicine Blog, 20th March 2020. Please correct mispellings, any English... |
d0b3487b-64fc-49a5-abd0-8c247c392dcb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Conditioning Predictive Models: Interactions with other approaches
*This is the fifth of seven posts in the [Conditioning Predictive Models Sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/n3utvGrgC2SGi9xQX) based on the paper “[Conditioning Predictive Models: Risks and Strategies](https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.00805)” by Evan... |
2b758d57-972d-4c81-af20-7a03794f41bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing EffiSciences’ AI Safety Unit
This post was written by Léo Dana, Charbel-Raphaël Ségerie, and Florent Berthet, with the help of Siméon Campos, Quentin Didier, Jérémy Andréoletti, Anouk Hannot, Angélina Gentaz, and Tom David.
In this post, you will learn what were EffiSciences’ most successful fiel... |
8ae48421-e788-430f-ad14-08ed038790ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LW UI issue
Not really sure where else I might post this, but there seems to be a UI issue on the site. When I hit the homepage of lesswrong.com while logged in I no longer see the user sidebar or the header links for Main and Discussion. This is kind of annoying because I have to click into an article first to get to... |
ec04755c-3cfa-4351-a8bb-70489e5c59e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fixed Point Discussion
,,
Warning: This post contains some important spoilers for Topological Fixed Point Exercises, Diagonalization Fixed Point Exercises, and Iteration Fixed Point Exercises. If you plan to even try the exercises, reading this post will significantly reduce the value you can get from doing them.
---... |
c8a654a6-6f01-4444-9e6e-001cd39ea051 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Babble challenge: 50 ways to escape a locked room
Once again, it is time to become stronger.
This week’s challenge: You find yourself in a locked, empty room. You only have the clothes on your body and a phone in your pocket. You have enough energy to not need food or water for 10 years. Your phone has enough batter... |
eab9b874-1723-4d87-912a-f0b509367751 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Bad AI Predictions: Bard Upgrade, 2 Years to AI Auto-Money, OpenAI Investigation and more
people are starting to get used to the
Breakneck pace of AI so I wanted to show
that developments in just the last few
days fly in the face of what was
predicted only a couple of years ago
starting with the upgrades The Bard then... |
49154d2d-171e-4993-a123-a2f49bdb832f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Games for factoring out variables
All the methods proposed for factoring out B (for having the AI maximise a certain value while 'ignoring' it's impact via B) can be put on the same general footing. For some set A, define a function Q on A×A with Q(a,a′)≥0 and ∑a,a′Q(a,a′)=1.
Then for a utility u, the general require... |
b2ed35be-0bc2-4ec5-bfd7-fefbc248918b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Broad Basins and Data Compression
Produced As Part Of The SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program 2022 Research Sprint Under John Wentworth
Intro
The "broad basins induce data compression" argument goes like this: If we train a neural network to memorize some data, it has to "store" all the relevant information in... |
f262d5b7-05d1-45bb-86d4-a2ac3d7fa5a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Numeracy neglect - A personal postmortem
My failed enlightenment
I've been thinking about my intellectual education, and what I wish had gone differently.
I am 26 years old. I’ve been reading books and going to school since I was 8. This puts my career as a learner at about 19 years. Honestly? I feel a bit disappoint... |
f998728e-8688-4154-9173-ec6617195030 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | MIRI's May 2024 Newsletter
Update (5-15-2024): I wrote that “it appears that not all of the leading AI labs are honoring the voluntary agreements they made at [AI Safety Summit],” citing a Politico article. However, after seeing more discussion about it (e.g. here), I am now highly uncertain about whether the labs mad... |
e7902e47-09a8-4121-9397-6db9dc4b06c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I think nuclear war triggered by Russian tactical nukes in Ukraine is unlikely
This is a response to Max's post Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war.
Max's thesis is that Putin is likely to use nuclear weapons if the war in Ukraine goes badly for Russia, that the west will ret... |
da56aded-2e7b-4fa7-83c9-528c072217e3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Where do analogies break down?
At 13, I began tinkering with every random device around my house. I pulled apart hundreds of them - remote controlled cars, table fans, aquarium purifiers, and even my PS2 controller. Figuring out how the vibrate function worked on my PS2 controller was pretty awesome! I could visualize... |
99ac136e-c0ea-4782-ba70-ccaae04e8875 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow LW meetup in "Nauchka" library
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow LW meetup in "Nauchka" library
WHEN: 09 September 2016 07:50:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Москва, ул. Дубининская, 20
Welcome to the next Moscow LW meetup in "Nauchka" library!
Our plan:
* A talk about using Bayes formula for updati... |
a7e168ff-7d4c-492c-98c5-70642518c463 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Predictions on when the requirement for pre-flight COVID testing for returning citizen will be dropped?
Did some quick searches but not getting any hits back.
Anyone know if anyone is making predictions -- or just discussing -- the idea that citizens of a country will not be required to test to return home. Basically... |
f2f45091-8cc7-4b83-bb30-6a108c53e3bd | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Any writeups on GPT agency?
I'm searching for any articles that explore capabilities of GPT as an agent.
I don't seem to find a lot (or any for that matter). Am I bad at searching? |
873a0e94-e25b-49d4-b043-68fbd6988c0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Map & Territory as PDF and org-mode file (& explanation)
Sequences have been coming up a lot lately (have you read them?, pre-posting reqs, re-runs, and exercises). I received fantastic feedback to a recent request for advice, and the top suggestion that really solidified for me was to finish reading a set quantity of... |
5c1d9098-f4a1-423a-8c13-9b4c34df5faa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Critiquing "What failure looks like"
I find myself somewhat confused as to why I should find Part I of “[What failure looks like](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/HBxe6wdjxK239zajf/what-failure-looks-like)” (hereafter "WFLL1", like the [pastry](https://www.google.com/search?q=waffle&oq=waffle&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5... |
a3b19815-7b8f-4dbb-95d2-65ab2356e3a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Oct. 17 - Oct. 23, 2016
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the ... |
0a0a6728-86b9-4cf4-afc5-1442b8f1bda4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Activation adding experiments with llama-7b
Produced as part of the SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program - Summer 2023 Cohort
Following my initial investigation with activation adding experiments with FLAN-T5 I decided to move on to a bigger, decoder-only model (llama-7b) to see whether the results (concepts com... |
2139676a-744e-41bf-a0ba-41cd24a71701 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Public Service Announcement Collection
P/S/A: There are single sentences which can create life-changing amounts of difference.
* P/S/A: If you're not sure whether or not you've ever had an orgasm, it means you haven't had one, a condition known as primary anorgasmia which is 90% treatable by cognitive-behavioral t... |
64e3e5b7-9bdc-42be-a13d-3a140d6422a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | To every people according to their language
Here is an approximate transcript of a conversation I had with a friend, who is an Orthodox Jew.
Transcript
ME: Imagine the US government announced a Manhattan project to reverse aging and end death forever. It's estimated this project will cost 5% of GDP. There's no guara... |
a510125b-2310-4c83-9c76-16cac4745c1b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Value Impact
Being on Earth when this happens is a big deal, no matter your objectives – you can't hoard pebbles if you're dead! People would feel the loss from anywhere in the cosmos. However, Pebblehoarders wouldn't mind if they weren't in harm's way.
Appendix: Contrived Obje... |
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