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1b4a2ccc-477e-49f4-8109-558b9a3ac740 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Human Memory: Problem Set
I'm working on a post about how best to use human memory—when it's good to store things in your own brain and why, when it's best to outsource your memory, what memory upgrades are worthwhile in what contexts, and how to integrate and apply memory systems in real life. I'm hoping the followin... |
da4ba476-0722-4f17-afff-f6796e4fd3c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A (somewhat beta) site for embedding betting odds in your writing
I've made a site for publishing predictions and publicly offering to bet on them. LessWrong seems like a place that might be interested in such a tool, and I expect at least 4 people will be interested enough in this site to play around with it a little... |
bac75925-fec6-484d-a327-4adf391a165e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What moral systems (e.g utilitarianism) are common among LessWrong users?
I assumed that most here are utilitarians, but a friend of mine speculated that a lot of you just want to be immortal, which got me curious. |
a63d5467-8323-49cf-91d5-ecdacdad7be5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How do states respond to changes in nuclear risk
Thanks to Matthew Gentzel for introducing this idea to me, all mistakes in this article are my own
Modelling risk responses
There are two ways we can think about reducing nuclear risk. We can reduce the probability that there's a nuclear war and we can reduce the har... |
07801633-09e4-46ec-af21-eeb957dcb92c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the numbers in mind for the super-short AGI timelines so many long-termists are alarmed about?
I also asked this question on the Effective Altruism Forum. One informative answer on the EA Forum from Nicole Nohemi has already summarized a range of relevant forecasts from Metaculus, as well as relevant predicti... |
549c01c1-f3c1-4058-bcb2-a70c5c100174 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mitigating Social Awkwardness
Edit - many apologies to anyone that feels that this discussion was a waste of time.
I just ran across an article (http://techno-anthropology.blogspot.com/2011/04/rough-guide-to-social-skills-for.html) on Hacker News that gives the barest minimum of a guide for social interaction. U... |
a7983e57-8077-4b46-bef1-8c8fdb299d04 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Mystery of the Haunted Rationalist
Followup to: Simultaneously Right and Wrong
"The most merciful thing in the world, I think, is the inability of the human mind to correlate all its contents."
- H.P. Lovecraft, The Call of Cthulhu
There is an old yarn about two skeptics who stayed overnight in a ... |
2fbd73dd-0d75-4e8e-990a-bc48fe85de4b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Eye contact is effortless when you’re no longer emotionally blocked on it
Story time! I wanted to run a fun party: "Make 100% eye contact or get sent to jail!" But I didn’t want to force people to make eye contact… I wanted everyone to be genuinely comfortable! How?
Consider: Eye contact is effortless without emotion... |
5e2b28fa-9ab1-4ce4-ab51-0b1a665d9e8f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | There's more low-hanging fruit in interdisciplinary work thanks to LLMs
I'm right now doing conceptual theoretical work about how the human fascia system works. While I do rely on some original conceptual insights that I have e come up with on my own, Gemini 2.5 Pro massively speeds up my conceptual work. Being able t... |
f4eef618-e722-48eb-83e0-0bb2f297e8b7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | US public opinion of AI policy and risk
Summary
=======
On April 14th 2023, Rethink Priorities conducted an online poll to assess US public perceptions of, and opinions about, AI risk. The poll was intended to conceptually replicate and extend a recent AI-related poll from [YouGov](https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/bfoyxp7... |
771b8b71-93f8-4caa-bb9c-d7fe72d4ad4e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meta: Cleaning the front page
All the meetup announcements get promoted, so the front page ends up full of 'em: half of it right now (5/10) is meetup announcements, and with the addition of the quote threads only 30% of the front page is currently 'content'. While meetup announcements are all well and good, it seems c... |
af496b38-5ac3-42e7-8fd7-5c7edea495ec | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Introducing the Principles of Intelligent Behaviour in Biological and Social Systems (PIBBSS) Fellowship
*Cross-posted to* [*EA Forum*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Ckont9EtqkenegLYv/introducing-the-principles-of-intelligent-behaviour-in)
Introduction
============
How would you go about scientifically s... |
45a22e8a-0d9c-42fc-bf4c-8910fbe9487a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ($1000 bounty) How effective are marginal vaccine doses against the covid delta variant?
UPDATE: the bounty has now been awarded as follows:
* $425 to Connor_Flexman
* $300 to Josh Jacobson
* $150 to JenniferRM/johnswentworth
* $75 to ChristianKl
* $50 to SoerenMind
===
Since I got vaccinated I’ve started wo... |
e877623b-b3d0-4277-933f-8e37bfb82f3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Announcing MIRI’s new CEO and leadership team
In 2023, MIRI has shifted focus in the direction of broad public communication—see, for example, our recent TED talk, our piece in TIME magazine “Pausing AI Developments Isn’t Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down”, and our appearances on various podcasts. While we’re contin... |
2b798339-3e87-4c28-bc2f-5b6c97ef5180 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Announcing #AISummitTalks featuring Professor Stuart Russell and many others
*Register now:* [*#AISummitTalks*](https://www.facebook.com/hashtag/aisummittalks?__eep__=6&__cft__[0]=AZWWp2KX-5gEcFfkRo4Lxqg1YojXwaT6ZG89wRpvxIizJV-guP3ZZ7H9-0cxf5gsF-LnGdxKiywZLlV58vPiaQTl14pc8yaytztqw7GO_yhx-SezQj7FlTV5XK2oD9gYJJ3ULkwRtTZ... |
c9f49844-6265-4d77-82c8-5078350735b2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reductive Reference
The reductionist thesis (as I formulate it) is that human minds, for reasons of efficiency, use a multi-level map in which we separately think about things like "atoms" and "quarks", "hands" and "fingers", or "heat" and "kinetic energy". Reality itself, on the other hand, is single-level in the se... |
fa265426-a894-4216-944f-54260f115ad9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The 12 Second Rule (i.e. think before answering) and other Epistemic Norms
Epistemic Status/Effort: I'm 85% confident this is a good idea, and that the broader idea is at least a good direction. Have gotten feedback from a few people and spend some time actively thinking through ramifications of it. Interested in more... |
6ba82469-c7cb-4f4b-8522-a79c52aa4051 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Street Epistemology Examples: How to Talk to People So They Change Their Minds
|
f267ffd1-cbc0-4c1d-b22c-c18eade9d8c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What should a student who is already a decent programmer do over the summer?
I'm majoring in computer science. However, I don't want to do a software engineering internship. Reasons:
1. I'm already a decent programmer & have worked in big companies/startups/research lab-esque organizations. I definitely have a lot l... |
f6a1d7ee-553d-418f-9da7-e63760b55f2c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | How artistic ideas could get harder to find
In [Where's Today's Beethoven?](https://www.cold-takes.com/wheres-todays-beethoven/), I argued that:
* Across a variety of areas in both art and science, we see a form of "innovation stagnation." That is: the best-regarded figures are disproportionately from long ago (for... |
6fee9c6e-60bc-4b5c-b670-4c79f895119d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My use of the phrase "Super-Human Feedback"
I've taken to calling Debate, Amplification, and Recursive Reward Modeling "Super-human feedback" (SHF) techniques. The point of this post is just to introduce that terminology and explain a bit why I like it and what I mean by it.
By calling something SHF I mean that it a... |
01086ca1-71d7-4449-afb3-dc0b5858d8b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are standardized tests effective?
I just finished my state testing. I know a lot of teachers and students don’t like the tests, but do they effectively improve education, or help lower level students? |
b2803755-0eb0-4faf-b5cd-667f7b8d74d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Models of Memory and Understanding
johnswentworth's post on Declarative Mathematics got me thinking about what different types of understanding/learning/memory feel like to me. In order to explain an initial confusion I had, I'm explicating some of my models on how my mind can work.
Jumps vs Procedure
I want to high... |
d096a5cb-2751-49c1-85db-f6642c75f4f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Map of all 40 copyright suits v. AI in U.S.
Download the latest PDF with links to court dockets here.
|
71e135a4-f5c2-4eff-9d17-f7c08dd84bb5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, Jul. 20 - Jul. 26, 2015
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately... |
f2c12778-2029-4375-9cec-7be11a4bd972 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Are Maximum Entropy Distributions So Ubiquitous?
If we measure the distribution of particle velocities in a thin gas, we’ll find that they’re roughly normally distributed. Specifically, the probability density of velocity v will be proportional to e−12mv2/(kBT) - or, written differently, e−E(v)/(kBT), where E(v) i... |
4da1b1c2-1058-426e-ad74-3d01bbfd1cf6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | New Sequences and General Update From Castify
You may have noticed the announcement last week of Less Wrong's partnership with Castify to create Less Wrong podcasts. We're happy to announce that we now offer three new sequences. For those who want to try us out, we are also offering Eliezer's seminal essay, The Simple... |
64d02d57-6366-4237-9cf8-3291b41a7321 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to be a messy thinker
Crossposted from my blog: https://invertedpassion.com/how-to-be-a-messy-thinker/
I love thinking about thinking. Give me a research paper on rationality, cognitive biases or mental models, and I’ll gobble it up. Given the amount of knowledge I’ve ingested on these topics, I had always assume... |
3c00f84b-53e9-4363-a442-3d623a03d3ac | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Corporate Governance of Artificial Intelligence in the Public Interest
Abstract
--------
\*\*:\*\*
Corporations play a major role in artificial intelligence (AI) research, development, and deployment, with profound consequences for society. This paper surveys opportunities to improve how corporations govern their AI ... |
3672585f-0628-404d-a3aa-8e8c64c0861e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is the evidence on the Church-Turing Thesis?
Why do you believe that everything "effectively computable" can be computed by a Turing machine? In the same vein: How would you recognize this to be false?
I don't particularly doubt that this is true. But I want to get a better gears level understanding for why this... |
52e2dd16-3b65-4c04-bd78-c64528d8f2cb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Limited agents need approximate induction
[This post borders on some well-trodden ground in information theory and machine learning, so ideas in this post have an above-average chance of having already been stated elsewhere, by professionals, better. EDIT: As it turns out, this is largely the case, under the subjects ... |
8fd240ac-eb51-4651-b81e-aee38fb71067 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : [Moscow] The Goals We Set
Discussion article for the meetup : [Moscow] The Goals We Set
WHEN: 07 July 2013 04:00:00PM (+0400)
WHERE: Russia, Moscow, ulitsa L'va Tolstogo 16
Please use the following guide to get to the meetup: link. You need the second revolving door with the sign “Yandex Money” in Russian.... |
17e4f9cc-dabd-4267-a660-fe38a8a55236 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is the work on AI alignment relevant to GPT?
I see a lot of posts go by here on AI alignment, agent foundations, and so on, and I've seen various papers from MIRI or on arXiv. I don't follow the subject in any depth, but I am noticing a striking disconnect between the concepts appearing in those discussions and recent... |
0b1c44cf-4e99-4e74-9684-fb9370a949e0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Progress links and tweets, 2022-11-29
The Progress Forum
* My AMA (ask me anything)
* Are Technologies Inevitable? (Matt Clancy)
* Comparing process improvement in manufacturing and construction: Duco vs Drywall (Brian Potter)
Announcements
* An optogenetic retinal prosthesis (via @maxhodak_)
* The Atlantic Pro... |
d06dc2dc-daa7-4f23-9a37-d331d17e5b82 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Affordable CO2 Monitor
I found a seemingly-high-quality CO2 monitor here for less than $50, or on Amazon or from the manufacturer's website for $70.
The most recent discussions of different CO2 monitors on the market I could find on LessWrong[1] were a few years old, and it seems that prices have come down somewha... |
0f6d2e9b-e0d4-422b-b28a-c28b10d3398b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Ignorant View on Ineffectiveness of AI Safety
I am ignorant of AI and AI Safety to a very large degree. It is very likely that a lot of what I talk about here will be silly to an actual expert or is something that has been thought of a long time ago and tried and taken as far as they knew how. But I think that if t... |
9fd62b9b-96fb-46e5-bc29-52df4bcfbace | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Quantilizers maximize expected utility subject to a conservative cost constraint
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-s... |
555b6aee-676f-46db-aa36-77ab91f72049 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI Safety researcher career review
**In a nutshell:** To mitigate the risks posed by the development of artificial intelligence, it’s imperative to research how to solve technical challenges and design problems to ensure that powerful AI systems do what we want — and are beneficial — without any catastrophic unintende... |
974daa3d-d8eb-4e6c-bced-dc5701be1902 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Atlanta February Meetup - Relationships
Discussion article for the meetup : Atlanta February Meetup - Relationships
WHEN: 15 February 2015 07:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 2388 Lawrenceville Hwy. Unit L. Decatur, GA 30033
This meetup we'll be talking about social skills and making and maintaining healthy relation... |
d983002e-0bba-4550-a80d-8d0f4bb0866b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An environment for studying counterfactuals
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Summary: I introduce a decision theory framework where successful agents are those with good counterfactuals.
Motivation
The problem of logical counterfactuals is how to define probabilities P(ϕ|A()=a) when A()=a is ... |
8fc47ad6-817c-42a8-84d6-8d2d48116b5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on Ad Blocking
Disclosure: I work on ads at Google; this is a personal post.
In the discussion of why I work on ads people asked whether I use an ad blocker (no) and what I think of them (it's complicated). So, what about ad blockers?
It should be up to you what you see. If you don't want your computer disp... |
af09d461-bf89-43ed-a734-1e98512ea558 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : [Reading Group, HAEFB-05]
Discussion article for the meetup : [Reading Group, HAEFB-05]
WHEN: 10 March 2013 11:00:00AM (+0000)
WHERE: Trinity College JCR, Cambridge, UK
This week, we'll be continuing on in our meetup series of reading the new sequence, Highly Advanced Epistemology for Beginners. Specifical... |
1cffbe75-667d-4477-a1dd-cbd26f729de5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 7/30: Whack a Mole
Last week: Covid 7/23: The Second Summit
It seems clear that positive test rates, and with them new infections, have peaked in the Southern epicenters.
Unless and until something changes, forward looking risk will continue to improve in the South and West. The Midwest and Northeast, however,... |
9253e91d-de13-418f-a2c4-89c8b15e402f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Practical consequences of impossibility of value learning
There is a No Free Lunch result in value-learning. Essentially, you can't learn the preferences of an agent from its behaviour unless you make assumptions about its rationality, and you can't learn its rationality unless you make assumptions about its preferenc... |
84ea4bff-122d-4655-a790-c6d3395e8f01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Prediction Market: Will I Pull "The One Ring To Rule Them All?"
I’m trying to save you from a fate worse than death. Recently, the Wizards of the Coast released a new Magic the Gathering/LOTR crossover pack, and there is a chance in each collectors booster pack to draw a 1/1 unique “One Ring” card!
But wait! Don’t h... |
08140c3e-a919-4ddc-b315-f640c59c9840 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | AI Accidents: An Emerging Threat
July 2021
AI Accidents: An Emerging Threat What Could Happen and What to Do
CSET Policy Brief
AUTHORS Zachary Arnold Helen Toner
Center for Security and Emerging Technology | 1 Executive Summary Modern machine learning is powerful in many ways, but profoundly fragile in others. B... |
2d4ba09d-49d7-46f6-8632-998ac37377be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Delicious Luminosity, Om Nom Nom
I have decided that it would be valuable for me to read books (blog posts, articles, random conversations between smart people who store chatlogs) about introspection, take notes, and try to distill and clarify the information. This could result in me eventually giving up, or in a Lum... |
62f845f5-45fe-401a-a1e9-d9bb322c9a43 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Build a Lumenator
Once upon a time, a friend was sad. Specifically, they had seasonal affective disorder. They tried to fix it by adding lights to their room during the winter.
It didn't work.
They tried adding a LOT of light.
It worked.
They called the giant bundle of lights they assembled a Lumenator. Oth... |
27293c0f-ecbd-4509-8199-ea5d745ef83b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Yoshua Bengio argues for tool-AI and to ban "executive-AI"
Yoshua Bengio wrote a blogpost yesterday in which he argues for developing "scientist AI", which seems in-structure very similar to historical [Tool-AI](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/tool-ai) proposals.
For the (IMO) best response to this kind of proposal se... |
ecc24b65-6f8c-4dd9-8ea6-b03ad38c24b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Confidence Levels in Forecasts and Psychological Surveys
Epistemic Status: I am very uncertain about this topic, but think that, if anything, I may simply be mislabeling or misunderstanding some real signal.
I imagine that there may be aspects of a person's particular tendencies in judgmental forecasting that reveal ... |
6a8c54a0-b99a-4cce-8c51-8990659fe6e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Locating Fulcrum Experiences
Note: There are two appendices at the end of this post. The first contains a summary of the steps I’ve described here. The second is a glossary of key terms I’ve introduced in this essay.
Once you’ve booted up some curiosity and original seeing—perhaps even identified a question that’s... |
edd6cd68-9b3d-4239-aecd-4052a3f0634a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Drawing Toward Power
At the Bay Area pre-solstice unconference, I gave a talk which started as a discussion of how rationalists could build tools to enable better organization and conversation online. I'm a largely improvisational speaker though, and it quickly turned into a discussion of the future of the movement.
... |
95a35d16-5da5-4aaa-baa1-4bfcb7554c1e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Non-classic stories about scheming (Section 2.3.2 of "Scheming AIs")
This is Section 2.3.2 of my report “Scheming AIs: Will AIs fake alignment during training in order to get power?”. There’s also a summary of the full report here (audio here). The summary covers most of the main points and technical terms, and I’m ho... |
920a7807-d1b3-4864-800e-616c92608eb5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fermi Estimates
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fermi Estimates
WHEN: 07 February 2016 03:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Reynolds Center
x-posted from list. Gathering in courtyard from 3:00pm, hard start 3:30pm - until closing (7:00 pm).
We'll be practicing Fermi estimates.... |
cf2947db-e5b2-47d3-8727-0fcf5baf6e65 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Disentangling Abstraction from Statistical Pattern Matching in Human and Machine Learning..
Disentangling Abstraction from Statistical Pattern Matching in Human
and Machine Learning
Sreejan Kumar
1*
, Ishita Dasgupta
2
, Nathaniel D. Daw
13
,
Jonathan. D. Cohen
13
, Thomas
L. Grif fiths
34
1
Princeton Neuroscience Ins... |
84137734-ff9b-41a7-a442-4020068b4c08 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread: March 2010
We've had these for a year, I'm sure we all know what to do by now.
This thread is for the discussion of Less Wrong topics that have not appeared in recent posts. If a discussion gets unwieldy, celebrate by turning it into a top-level post. |
fcb364b2-2a4b-4b7c-a957-813d45774c96 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Strategic research on AI risk
Series: How to Purchase AI Risk Reduction
Norman Rasmussen's analysis of the safety of nuclear power plants, written before any nuclear accidents had occurred, correctly predicted several details of the Three Mile Island incident in ways that that previous experts had not (see McGrayne 2... |
f8bec756-f6b5-4b80-8eb5-51fc92bc4126 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Apply to HAIST/MAIA’s AI Governance Workshop in DC (Feb 17-20)
The Harvard AI Safety Team and MIT AI Alignment, supported by the Cambridge Boston Alignment Initiative (CBAI), are excited to announce a 3-day workshop on AI Governance, Policy, and Strategy (GPS) on President’s Day weekend (February 17th-20th) in Washing... |
cd79c18b-4104-47ce-8f74-a32e0e104aed | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Is working on AI safety as dangerous as ignoring it?
(Writing out this post has helped me answer the question for myself, but I still want to post it to see other thoughts).
I have been hesitant to get into AI safety research. Then I watched [Robert Miles's video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9i1WlcCudpU) that wal... |
c67b4063-81a0-4cbb-b38b-a62ab26335f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Proclamation of game-theoretic emergence
1. Game theory studies behavior of rational agents. Physical reality has no place for rational agents. Rationality can only exist as epiphenomenon atop stochastic behavior of matter.
2. Partial ordering exists on the set of stochastic games, defined by IMIT (Is More Interest... |
1faf20e2-5970-41ef-bf4c-be4571294900 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Rational Ottawa
(The following are our suggestions for what kind of information is best to include in the welcome post of your group, feel free to replace them with whatever you think is best)
What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do?
How frequently does your group organize... |
26b7e41b-da95-466e-90d1-ade10da816a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A toy model of the treacherous turn
Jaan Tallinn has suggested creating a toy model of the various common AI arguments, so that they can be analysed without loaded concepts like "autonomy", "consciousness", or "intentionality". Here a simple attempt for the "treacherous turn"; posted here for comments and suggestions.... |
c713b41a-c3d8-45f5-957d-693728fe81bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Many Worlds, One Best Guess
Today's post, Many Worlds, One Best Guess was originally published on 11 May 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Summarizes the arguments that nail down macroscopic decoherence, aka the "many-worlds interpretation". Concludes that many-worlds wins outright given the ... |
d1c0c1c2-bfde-4f74-a7b6-6881a8fbe74c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Getting Ready for the FB Donation Match
Facebook is again going to be matching donations on Giving Tuesday:
* $7M total
* $20k max per donor
* $100k max per organization
* First-come first-served
* Processing fees covered by FB
* 8AM Eastern, Tuesday 12/3
I participated last year, and while the match ran out... |
03f7707d-33de-4256-9f30-67b069e81b32 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Chicago Rationality Training Group - Meeting 1: "Why Rationality?" and Using the Inner Simulator
Discussion article for the meetup : Chicago Rationality Training Group - Meeting 1: "Why Rationality?" and Using the Inner Simulator
WHEN: 05 April 2015 01:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Harper Memorial Library, room 1... |
b0f52105-854c-4a7a-b54b-683aa7e00852 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Discussion of AI control over at worldbuilding.stackexchange [LINK]
https://worldbuilding.stackexchange.com/questions/6340/the-challenge-of-controlling-a-powerful-ai
Go insert some rationality into the discussion! (There are actually some pretty good comments in there, and some links to the right places, including LW... |
88b162bf-7a30-44c7-9b45-a419f26f2330 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Timelines explanation post part 1 of ?
> "Correct prediction isn't enough. You must follow that insight with effective action that actually makes a difference"
- paraphrase of Holden Karnofsky from recent 80 thousand hours podcast
see also: Timelines post 2
I've been working on a post about my timelines for a w... |
94317e17-ec00-42e1-8b82-ba81a1feadcc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Machine Intelligence for Scientific Discovery and Engineering Invention
May 2021
Machine Intelligence for Scientific Discovery and Engineering Invention
CSET Data Brief
AUTHORS Matthew Daniels Autumn Toney Melissa Flagg Charles Yang
Center for Security and Emerging Technology | 1 Introduction Artificial intellig... |
ddd50e3e-7a7e-4605-a3c8-c810f67dd46b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Undergraduate Reading Of: Macroscopic Prediction by E.T. Jaynes
I stumbled across a paper from 1996 on Macroscopic Prediction by E.T. Jaynes which interested me; I thought I would document my reading in the style I recommended in this post. I don't have any expertise in Jaynes' fields, so it will serve as a good ch... |
85c1bf69-c5ef-46c7-b2ec-1ecee34b3fb5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Markets are Anti-Inductive
Today's post, Markets are Anti-Inductive was originally published on 26 February 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> The standard theory of efficient markets says that exploitable regularities in the past, shouldn't be exploitable in the future. If everybody knows tha... |
cd2eb083-4dda-45ff-9e30-8609319907c2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Three Alignment Schemas & Their Problems
*This is the first journal entry for my 6 months of alignment studies. Feedback and thoughts are much appreciated! I'm hoping that documenting this process can serve as a reference for self-study methods in AIS.*
I'm not sure how one goes about solving alignment. So for lack o... |
babcef9a-6b3a-4d0d-8d83-ab6633bb1c94 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sunday October 11th, 12:00PM (PT) — talks by Alex Zhu, Martin Sustrik and Steve Byrnes
This Sunday at 12pm (PT), we're running another session of "lightning talks" by curated LessWrong authors (see here for previous weeks' transcripts). This time fully in Gather Town!
* For the first hour, we will have a series of l... |
0d831651-0d4b-4754-8e2d-2c9d2118a601 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Value of a Life
This post is cross-posted from MindingOurWay. It's about some of my reasons for being an effective altruist. It's targeted more towards people who aren't EAs or who haven't heard of effective altruism, but some people here may also find it inspiring.
If you have money and want to save lives, you h... |
504d7112-32f3-40cc-972a-6337458504dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | RSS Feeds are fixed and should be properly functional this time
Just pushed a fix that should make RSS feeds work properly (you will have to resubscribe to the RSS feeds, if you did so a while ago). Thanks to squirrelInHell who made me aware of the deeper problems with our RSS feed (that my RSS reader seemed to mostly... |
a841170d-2f65-4848-94e2-cc709b970eb5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Does Abductive Reasoning really exist?
Salutations,
I have been a regular reader (and big fan) of LessWrong for quite some time now, so let me just say that I feel honoured to be able to share some of my thoughts with the likes of you folks.
I don't reckon myself a good writer, nor a very polished thinker (as many o... |
71615dc6-1a91-485c-895e-01e2cce5e8b5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | a confusion about preference orderings
Here's a confusion I have about preference orderings in decision theory.
Caveat: the observations I make below feel weirdly trivial to me, to the point that I feel wary of making a post about them at all; the specter of readers rolling their eyes and thinking "oh he's just talki... |
170719e9-c868-4aa9-99be-7629e5cd1b40 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Redefining Fast Takeoff
This post is a result of numerous discussions with other participants and organizers of the MIRI Summer Fellows Program 2019. It describes ideas that are likely already known by many researchers. However, given how often disagreements about slow/fast takeoffs come up, I believe there is signifi... |
7d5b6798-da80-4ad3-8966-d451f06fdee9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Review: Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids
This is a review of Bryan Caplan’s book Selfish Reasons to Have More Kids. Co-written with Walid.
Summary
Adoption studies indicate that differences in parenting styles have mostly small impacts on long term life outcomes of children, such as happiness, income, intelligence,... |
e721183c-d877-4746-9696-b943895100ce | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | "humans aren't aligned" and "human values are incoherent"
"humans aren't aligned" and "human values are incoherent"
---------------------------------------------------------
"humans aren't aligned" or "our values are not coherent" are concerns that i occasionally hear about the odds of [AI alignment](https://en.wiki... |
ab6cb710-d03d-46ac-8c07-8afff3e8f21d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Any further work on AI Safety Success Stories?
**TL;DR, Are they any works similar to Wei\_Dai's** [**Ai Safety "Success Stories"**](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bnY3L48TtDrKTzGRb/ai-safety-success-stories) **that provide a framework to think about the landscape of possible success stories & pathways humanity will ... |
11c417b3-b836-4fa9-9ea0-8d7a1b78e31a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Logical counterfactuals for random algorithms
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowrap... |
9e5d9ca4-3adf-4c51-abdc-c31f08b72b85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Join the $10K AutoHack 2024 Tournament
What is AutoHack?
AutoHack is a new platform that offers offensive security challenges modeled after real-world cybersecurity kill chains. Each challenge progresses through a sequence of stages, such as: Reconnaissance, Remote Code Execution, Privilege Escalation, Persistence, an... |
a6d74f0c-9573-4c36-9387-758f23ffcee7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link-post] On Deference and Yudkowsky's AI Risk Estimates
This is a link-post to a piece I just posted to the EA Forum, discussing negative aspects of Eliezer Yudkowsky's forecasting track record. In case it also receives significant discussion here, you may also want to look at the comments on the Forum (e.g. Gwern ... |
97d51f7e-60c1-4932-9e44-b2048b41c8ab | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Let's not generalize over people
Let's not generalize over people
--------------------------------
i really like culture; and, to that end, i really like diversity of thought.
diversity is pretty [fragile](https://www.readthesequences.com/Value-Is-Fragile), however; if you don't take particular actions to preserve... |
63d9f78a-b538-45a8-9ca2-2f53ffde56f6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Supervised learning of outputs in the brain
*Follow-up to:* [*My computational framework for the brain*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/diruo47z32eprenTg/my-computational-framework-for-the-brain).
*(Epistemic status: In what's becoming a pattern, I tried reading the standard neuroscience discussions in this area but... |
2a986d19-dff0-4791-8dad-ec960672f248 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Patent Trolling to Save the World
(Epistemic status: I know next to nothing about patent law, I'm just sharing some thoughts. I would love to be corrected by someone knowledgeable.)
If you think that some technology has a significant chance of ending the world (or having other huge negative externalities that outwei... |
8dd7a110-c89e-44b9-b81a-976e6dbb648f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Experiment Idea Thread - Spring 2011
This is an idea that just occurred to me. We have a large community of people who think about scientific problems recreationally, many of whom are in no position to go around investigating them. Hopefully, however, some other community members are in a position to go around invest... |
3118dc27-8c56-4580-af67-a909279f86f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Over-encapsulation
Take a look at "Role of Layer 6 of V2 Visual Cortex in Object-Recognition Memory", Science 3 July 2009:
Vol. 325. no. 5936, pp. 87 - 89. The article has some good points, but I'm going to pick on some of its tests.
The experimenters believed they could enhance object-recognition memory (ORM) by us... |
53087476-f69f-4312-9c60-17c0efc6b233 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | OpenAI/Microsoft announce "next generation language model" integrated into Bing/Edge
**TL;DR:** Microsoft and OpenAI announced a new version of Bing featuring "a new, next-generation OpenAI large language model [..] more powerful than ChatGPT", and that Microsoft Edge will feature a Copilot-like assistant that helps w... |
a25c14a6-1af2-4438-9270-e1d13b9d1f2b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Fifth Buenos Aires LessWrong meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Fifth Buenos Aires LessWrong meetup
WHEN: 09 August 2014 04:00:00PM (-0300)
WHERE: Roseti 1380, Ciudad de Buenos Aires, Argentina
This will be our fifth Buenos Aires LessWrong meetup.
On this occasion, Pablo will give a brief introduc... |
da106818-5815-48cb-bc48-6d82630cff0c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bragging Thread May 2015
Your job, should you choose to accept it, is to comment on this thread explaining the most awesome thing you've done this month. You may be as blatantly proud of yourself as you feel. You may unabashedly consider yourself the coolest freaking person ever because of that awesome thing you're dy... |
06374a5c-2e77-40c6-bd5d-cd2e25d8456e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Attention Is All You Need
1 Introduction
---------------
Recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory ([hochreiter1997,](#bib.bib13) ) and gated recurrent ([gruEval14,](#bib.bib7) ) neural networks in particular, have been firmly established as state of the art approaches in sequence modeling and transduction ... |
51491c42-07ca-41ce-9e29-40fbbe588020 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Great Data Integration Schlep
Midjourney, “Fourth Industrial Revolution Digital Transformation”
This is a little rant I like to give, because it’s something I learned on the job that I’ve never seen written up explicitly.
There are a bunch of buzzwords floating around regarding computer technology in an industri... |
49cde0e9-7eca-43ad-82ff-42aeec14e8ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Can we get people to shut up on public transportation?
Whether masked or not masked, holding conversations seems to increase COVID-19 transmission. It's my impression that while people in Berlin generally do wear masks they still hold conversations in public similarly to how they would before COVID-19. There's no mess... |
39ab308e-da02-44fb-aedc-1c3c5547b2b3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (17 - 23 Oct 22')
Supported by Rethink Priorities
This is part of a weekly series - you can see the full collection here. The first post includes some details on purpose and methodology.
If you'd like to receive these summaries via email, you can subscribe here.
Podcast version: prefer... |
9d75a8d8-b840-4503-92e9-62676a0962ca | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Moscow: existential risks, case-method, epistemic logic
Discussion article for the meetup : Moscow: existential risks, case-method, epistemic logic
WHEN: 14 June 2015 02:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Москва, Льва Толстого, 16
We're meeting at Yandex, at 7.Nebo. Please fill this form OR join this FB event if you'r... |
71027877-d669-4ff9-a8d7-1927232e5d35 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : [Metro Detroit / Ann Arbor], Michigan: LW and SSC meetup where I bring food
Discussion article for the meetup : [Metro Detroit / Ann Arbor], Michigan: LW and SSC meetup where I bring food
WHEN: 08 April 2017 04:20:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 2065 Commerce Blvd. #327 Ann Arbor, MI 48103
The Ann Arbor Area Amalgam o... |
da81c63a-0f63-49ae-a4c4-2d27625e23a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Big Nonprofits Post
There are lots of great charitable giving opportunities out there right now.
The first time that I served as a recommender in the Survival and Flourishing Fund (SFF) was back in 2021. I wrote in detail about my experiences then. At the time, I did not see many great opportunities, and was able... |
7469ccd3-55ee-4223-a0db-d1de9d6c6e0d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning
1 Introduction
---------------
We are interested in a specific setting of imitation learning—the problem of learning to perform a task from expert demonstrations—in which the learner is given only samples of trajectories from the expert, is not allowed to query the expert f... |
f0662e80-3cc9-4710-9f34-7e271af566f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Matt Levine spots IRL Paperclip Maximizer in Reddit
Matt Levine is the author of regular column "Money Stuff" on Bloomberg, and he seems to have spotted a paperclip maximizer in the wild:
> A key explanation of, like, modern life is that politics are so vicious and polarized because (1) everyone uses Facebook, (2) Fa... |
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