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68179432-7ffe-4407-8ce6-77fd82110d1b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meanings of Mathematical Truths
Related Sequence posts: Math is Subjunctively Objective, How to Convince Me That 2+2=3
Discussions whether mathematical theorems can be possibly disproved by observations have been relatively frequent on LessWrong. The last instance which motivated me to write this post was the discuss... |
6369d3a6-99f7-4e9e-9977-78904218282c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | EA & LW Forums Weekly Summary (26 Sep - 9 Oct 22')
Supported by Rethink Priorities
Author's note: this post covers the past two weeks, with a karma bar of 80+ instead of the usual 40+. Covid knocked me out a bit so playing catch up! Future posts will be back to the usual schedule and karma requirement.
This is pa... |
b6e64156-c1dc-43f8-8d61-b54ce5e79a3e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Were there any ancient rationalists?
I've recently read some cool posts on rationality through history (e.g., see here), and want to see if there are more examples! So: do you know of any "ancient" individual figures or institutions that you would consider rational? Or at least from several centuries ago. |
3b94b869-fe6e-4388-8eb5-a6f4e8a2f2fa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Noisy Poll Results And Reptilian Muslim Climatologists from Mars
Beware of Phantom Lizardmen
I have only done a little bit of social science research, but it was enough to make me hate people. One study I helped with analyzed whether people from different countries had different answers on a certain psychological tes... |
c69f1e1d-ebda-4b31-8300-f8e53dbf3082 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Swiss Political System: More than You ever Wanted to Know (II.)
Previous part
In the previous part of this article we've looked in detail at the Swiss system of direct democracy.
It's hard not to conclude that direct democracy is the reason why Swiss society works so well. However, one then remembers the direct demo... |
3cac80eb-0d2f-4bd8-98f1-3756992a310b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | New s-risks audiobook available now
Tobias Baumann's first-of-its-kind introduction to s-risks, *Avoiding the Worst: How to Prevent a Moral Catastrophe* is now available to listen to for free.
Professionally narrated by Adrian Nelson, the full audiobook is out now on [Audible](https://www.audible.co.uk/pd/Avoiding... |
127b6413-af6e-4a9a-8bdc-35eb6b408bc9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | How strong is the evidence of unaligned AI systems causing harm?
A common line of argument for AI alignment being an issue is that unaligned AI systems deployed in the real world have already caused harm to people or society.[[1]](#fn-Evt7NN9W2m6NeByzy-1) However, many of the cited examples are disputed – for example,... |
c506f850-4612-4f1b-809f-d116ec586fd6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong |
Robin Hanson's Grabby Aliens model explained - part 2
This article is the script of the Rational Animations video linked above. This time, we go into the power law that constitutes the "core" of this model, how to generate simulations of the model, and how to generate predictions from simulations. The predictions cov... |
d8371b2d-157a-4c8a-95c7-06c60865830b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Immanuel Kant and the Decision Theory App Store
[Epistemic status: About as silly as it sounds.]
Prepare to be astounded by this rationalist reconstruction of Kant, drawn out of an unbelievably tiny parcel of Kant literature![1]
Kant argues that all rational agents will:
* “Act only according to that maxim whereby... |
5a8d507a-be43-4b1e-891c-273433e27bc8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Iron Law of Evaluation and Other Metallic Rules.
Gwern talks about the reasons why most policies that have been evaluated don't actually improve sociological problems. (poverty, dependency, mental illness, crime) I find it surprising they don't hurt either. Gwern hypothesizes that it might be sample bias or maybe ... |
35fd0580-2762-4334-9e05-a2611894f30d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vote With Your Face
Starting with our July 2nd dance BIDA has been running half our dances as mask-optional. Some people only want to attend if they know everyone on the floor will be wearing a high-filtration mask, others only want to attend if they don't have to mask, and of course others will or won't attend regard... |
23c1d3c4-98b2-486c-8507-db6263aeb209 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Introducing Familiar, a quantified reasoning assistant (feedback sought!)
tl;dr: I'm making a thing that uses probabilistic graphical models to assist in drawing inferences from personal data. You should check it out, and share with me your wisdom/user experience.
I had this not-completely-original idea that there sh... |
942a6262-8b4e-4c77-9f15-dd313d022b8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The "Intuitions" Behind "Utilitarianism"
(Still no Internet access. Hopefully they manage to repair the DSL today.)
I haven't said much about metaethics - the nature of morality - because that has a forward dependency on a discussion of the Mind Projection Fallacy that I haven't gotten to yet. I used to be very con... |
6518fcbf-a287-46f6-8caf-e8cea08cc65d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why mathematics works
Summary : There's a biological reason why intelligent species are likely to live in universes in which mathematics is effective.
----------------------------------------
Eugene Wigner asked "Why is mathematics so unreasonably effective?"
Einstein was also puzzled. He wrote "What is inconceivab... |
2cd8b0e5-6d81-48fc-b0e7-ea7b11e90e12 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Exploitability/Explainability Frontier
Epistemic status: quick insight that seems true in many cases
Your ability to notice that something is wrong trades off against your ability to convince others that said thing is, in fact, wrong. Suppose you discover a way in which the mainstream narrative is wrong in whatev... |
5afd8eef-a22a-4f9f-a812-8057efe94979 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post80
tl;dr When prompted, current models can sandbag ML experiments and research decisions without being detected by zero-shot prompted monitors. Claude 3.5 Sonnet (new) can only sandbag effectively when seeing a one-shot example, while Claude 3.7 Sonnet can do this without an example (zero-shot). We are not yet... |
6688e25e-691f-4b13-9f57-823a1d58eed5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | For meetup groups: Restaurant gift card coupons
From here:
> Restaurant.com cuts 70% off any gift certificate via coupon code "SHARE". This coupon drops most $10 dining certificates to $1.50 and $25 gift certificates to $3. Restaurant.com's gift certificates are redeemable at local restaurants across the United State... |
ce468a92-4104-46bc-a2d9-e64c058ae0f8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | To contribute to AI safety, consider doing AI research
Among those concerned about risks from advanced AI, I've encountered people who would be interested in a career in AI research, but are worried that doing so would speed up AI capability relative to safety. I think it is a mistake for AI safety proponents to avoid... |
c4d05d06-03a3-42ca-8432-acea67a07b18 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Finally Ending My Cryo-Crastination
I've finally decided to take the plunge and make the arrangements for my eventual cryonic preservation. To help myself make sure that I actually follow through with everything necessary, I'm publicly pre-committing myself here to accomplish that.
As initial evidence that I'm act... |
82363327-821c-45c1-8943-b9f45e05352e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Technology of Everything – Part 1: A Magical Science Experiment
The Pledge
Any idea that can be conceived can be realized. Every conceivable notion has potential for existence. Arthur C. Clarke, in his 1962 piece, 'Profiles of the Future,' presented three principles. Despite the third being the most well-known, all ... |
375bf7b9-a755-42f9-9623-40c5ce0eab6e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Escape the Echo Chamber (2018)
Related to: Epistemic Learned Helplessness, Bounded Distrust
This seems like a particularly insightful essay that expresses very well an idea I've also had: the difference between people with relatively normal beliefs and people with crazy-sounding beliefs is often that the peopl... |
7bf885c5-3fcf-4558-a506-b350739f1b3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dance Profit Sharing
With most endeavors that have a financial component there's a spectrum of approaches that differ on how they assign risk. At the "low risk" end you have agreements to pay a specific amount ("we pay $100/person"), while at the "high risk" end it depends on how things go go ("everyone gets a share o... |
c4928df6-f720-4efe-acb2-e5a52315cafc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Fear [Fiction]
Be afraid. Be very afraid.
The sound rings out from the top of the lighthouse. It echoes emptily on walls lined with paintings, all identical in their monotony. The same visuals endlessly reproduced, the same words over and over.
The paintings are all of the same thing: a small, unremarkable lands... |
a438d6bc-5126-49e0-b3ac-7c2e6041342d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Camps Should List Bands
The two most common kinds of big event with contra dancing are the dance weekend and the dance camp. Putting any individual event into one category or the other can be a little tricky, but it might be helpful to consider the "classic" version of each:
Weekend Camp Timing Friday evening throu... |
5a6a40ad-f705-40af-8d0d-36c83257b5a8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Credibility of the CDC on SARS-CoV-2
Introduction
One of the main places Americans look for information on coronavirus is the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (abbreviated CDC from the days before “and Prevention” was in the title). That’s natural; “handling contagious epidemics” is not their only job, but it... |
b8369e95-8f61-4181-b285-f1d5716b840d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | How model editing could help with the alignment problem
### Preface
This article explores the potential of model editing techniques in aligning future AI systems. Initially, I was skeptical about its efficacy, especially considering the objectives of current model editing methods. I argue that merely editing "facts"... |
bc4f7c3d-6d7b-489d-aae4-7451ac5ef615 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Isn’t AI just a tool like any other? Won’t it just do what we tell it to?
An AI is very different from other tools because it is an [optimizer](/?state=8C7W&question=What%20is%20an%20optimizer%3F). Unlike other tools, it can have goals and discover the most effective ways of attaining those goals.
Because of this, e... |
92528a6d-eea4-42ed-bfaf-cb23ec726f80 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Hidden Complexity of Thought
If you've read Thinking, Fast and Slow, you'll be familiar with the concepts of a "system 1" that does fast, unconscious processing, and a "system 2" that does slow, methodical processing. The important insight here is that these systems don't sit side by side. System 2 is built *on to... |
079da50e-71f3-42ab-8ba2-56fd85836ad2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Sublimity vs. Youtube
The [torture vs. dust specks](/lw/kn/torture_vs_dust_specks/) quandary is a canonical one to LW. Off the top of my head, I can't remember anyone suggesting the reversal, one where the arguments taken by the hypothetical are positive and not negative. I'm curious about how it affects people's in... |
b93ee3ff-5178-431c-8bd1-736cc223878c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Values at compile time
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
This is a simple extension of the model-as-definition and the intelligence module ideas. General structure of these extensions: even an unfriendly AI, in the course of being unfriendly, will need to calculate certain estimates that would be of gre... |
bdc7828d-9471-4741-a401-f1df74f12c01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Breaking the illusion of understanding
This writeup at Ars Technica about a recently published paper in the Journal of Consumer Research may be of interest. Super-brief summary:
* Consumers with higher scores on a cognitive reflection test are more inclined to buy products when told more about them; for consu... |
9d4a2351-a155-4fd0-bb88-9e3bdbace04d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, Sept 5. - Sept 11. 2016
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post, then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately before; refresh the ... |
801e74fa-1fe6-4358-a776-beba9ecd02e5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | K-complexity of everyday things
What can we say about the K-complexity of a non-random string from our universe, e.g. the text of Finnegans Wake? It contains lots of patterns making it easy to compress using a regular archiver, but can we do much better than that?
On one hand, the laws of physics in our universe seem... |
1fbc3406-c67b-46ad-b2c4-820ff33bca50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Machine Unlearning Evaluations as Interpretability Benchmarks
Interpreting Models by Ablation. Image generated by DALL-E 3.
Introduction
Interpretability in machine learning, especially in language models, is an area with a large number of contributions. While this can be quite useful for improving our understanding... |
6b40094d-76ba-4f4d-8360-0ea487da8847 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The voyage of novelty
[Metadata: crossposted from https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2023/01/the-voyage-of-novelty.html. First completed January 17, 2023. This essay is more like research notes than exposition, so context may be missing, the use of terms may change across essays, and the text might be revised later; only the... |
e4adb2bb-c1d1-4852-8247-b68a74a871d7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ottawa LW meetup, June 23, 7pm; two Bayesian Conspiracy sessions
Less Wrong meeting:
Date: Thursday June 23, 7:00pm 'til whenever.
Venue: Fox and Feather, upstairs, possibly in back room #1 if it's free. Look for the LW sign.
Bayes study group: Anyone in the region interested in learning how to do Bayesian st... |
f883f230-db0d-49d7-b84a-08582946b6f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Selling Nonapples
Previously in series: Worse Than Random
A tale of two architectures...
Once upon a time there was a man named Rodney Brooks, who could justly be called the King of Scruffy Robotics. (Sample paper titles: "Fast, Cheap, and Out of Control", "Intelligence Without Reason"). Brooks invented the "sub... |
51044dfa-edea-481e-a445-5870f946fb39 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Distillation of Neurotech and Alignment Workshop January 2023
**Disclaimer:**This post is preliminary and doesn't yet fully align with the rigorous standards we typically aim for in LessWrong publications. It recaps the dynamic discussions from the neurotech for AI alignment workshop and therefore does not necessarily... |
726fc87b-8f99-433a-827b-251f48fe8554 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Restricted Diet and Longevity, does eating pattern matter?
From what I've been able to find there is fairly good evidence for reducing one's diet by about 25% from the recommended caloric intake.
What I cannot find (most of what I've tried to find is abstract only and the papers behind a paywall) is if the pattern of... |
9dddaed4-f21e-4689-8055-6b77fdf1ca04 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Suspicious arguments regarding cow counting
People sometimes think that the doomsday argument is implausible because it always says we are more likely to die out sooner than our other reasoning suggests, regardless of the situation. There’s something dubious about an argument that has the same conclusion about the wor... |
952fc468-3f42-4987-bae7-8fe7a674ab7f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : First Bogota, Colombia Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : First Bogota, Colombia Meetup
WHEN: 28 January 2017 06:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: Starbucks Zona G
I'm visiting Bogota for the weekend (currently live in Medellin), and it would be awesome to meet other LW readers!
I will have a copy of 'Quantu... |
29e58697-79c0-4692-8ad1-fe2ff707973c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Rice's theorem and the Halting problem
We will show that [Rice's theorem](https://arbital.com/p/5mv) and the [the halting problem](https://arbital.com/p/46h) are equivalent.
#The Halting theorem implies Rice's theorem
Let $S$ be a non trivial set of computable partial functions, and suppose that there exists a Turing... |
3158eba5-dbc5-4ef6-b78a-6c1220af29c4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Growing Bonsai Networks with RNNs
This is a linkpost for a writeup on my personal website: https://cprimozic.net/blog/growing-sparse-computational-graphs-with-rnns/
Here's a summary:
> This post contains an overview of my research and experiments on growing sparse computational graphs I'm calling "Bonsai Networks" b... |
e29a9e69-7ed8-49b3-b999-0439aded3c49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Separate the truth from your wishes
The sentence “All people are equal.” (and ones like it) seems simple at first glance but actually contains a lot of depth. Depending on how you interpret it, it can be false or subjective, but I don’t think it’s true.
The most naive interpretation is obviously false. All people are... |
8bb885c6-0d17-4b06-9fe6-0c033d4bd73a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | What's Behind the ChatGPT History Change? How You Can Benefit + The 6 New Developments This Week
18 hours ago Sam Altman put out this
simple tweet that you can now disable
chat history and training in chatty PT
and that we will offer charity business
in the coming months but dig a little
deeper and behind this twe... |
0d8c958b-68de-425a-9b44-e03a29cb714c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | An adversarial example for Direct Logit Attribution: memory management in gelu-4l
*Please check out*[*our notebook*](https://colab.research.google.com/drive/16Kp-4iH330a1dF6F0ntPK7kfNuxqkvfZ#scrollTo=0WpBUiAYkEdv) *for figure recreation and to examine your own model for clean-up behavior.*
*Produced as part of*[*AREN... |
58a6d68d-01e5-4980-857e-52052e731fc6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] The Story Of VaccinateCA
Linked is Patrick MacKenzie's writeup of VaccinateCA, the nonprofit that succeeded at creating the best source of vaccine availability data when the government completely dropped the ball. It's long, but one of the best things I've read in a while. Some highlights:
> We found it su... |
83d7e16b-f288-4005-9faa-11b3d667fe3b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ideas for a fact checking widget
Just had this idea, writing while I'm excited about it -
We all know the problem of fake new, of too much information to be checked - and that most people don't know how to do that, don't want to, or just don't have the time or energy.
And i can't blame them, it is hard. it's not lik... |
68dc4dea-23ab-4c39-a24c-95fe4c882342 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Draft] Holy Bayesian Multiverse, Batman!
I couldn't find the math for the quantum suicide and immortality thought experiment, so I'm placing it here for posterity. If one actually ran the experiment, Bayes' theorem would tell us how to update our belief in the multi-world interpretation (MWI) of quantum mechanics. I ... |
bf4200de-ce38-48cb-b863-d19374659dfb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #118]: Risks, solutions, and prioritization in a world with many AI systems
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever ... |
cdf757f6-8aac-4947-ae9a-51d15687d615 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What is good literature on learned helplessness?
In the parent question, "How do people become ambitious?", PeterMcCluskey suggests investigating ambition by its inversion, learned helplessness. Dr_Manhattan asked this question in response. |
6bfb7777-e101-47df-8258-ec3d5963d017 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How can one literally buy time (from x-risk) with money?
This post talks about types of projects that can buy us more time to work on AI alignment. But like, I am just definitely not going to pivot to working on any of those projects right now. What pre-existing projects could someone donate money to, right now? (This... |
0771ca0f-ddb3-4084-99c8-138ac1bd0168 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Buy Now Or Forever Hold Your Peace
The Intrade prediction market is giving Hillary a 53% chance and Obama a 47% chance of winning the Democratic presidential nomination. Hillary is down 7.5 percentage points in just the last day. (Note: Between when I wrote the above, and when I posted this, Hillary went up to 54.)... |
70774282-4207-435f-b938-cf5be7a52df2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The true cost of fences
Most people have fences in their conversation tree. They have topics which they will not talk about or which they will only talk about under certain conditions. In some cases those policies are public, in others people have to learn the hard way, i.e. they find out by running into the fence. Ha... |
6569acf5-3de0-4a0a-a57e-85b742f10f90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Mind Is Not Designed For Thinking
There's an interesting article in the latest issue of American Educator: "Why Don't Students Like School? Because the Mind Is Not Designed For Thinking" (pdf).
The general subject is cached thoughts. |
415cc476-0abb-4588-9ee9-aac009446af7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A primer on provability logic
MIRI's paper on robust cooperation in the one-shot prisoner's dilemma (by Patrick LaVictoire and others) models agents which know their opponents' source code through Gödel-Löb provability logic, a modal logic for reasoning about provability in Peano Arithmetic. This framework of "modal a... |
52cb97c0-c17f-4d29-bcb7-87d77137f309 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | UML XI: Nearest Neighbor Schemes
(This is the eleventh post in a sequence on Machine Learning based on this book. Click here for part I.)
Last time, I tried to do something special because the topic was neural networks. Now we're back to the usual style, but with an unusually easy topic. To fit this theme, it will be... |
19dfe67f-9247-450e-96d5-dfc5c46d0557 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC Social meetup+ Birthday party!
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC Social meetup+ Birthday party!
WHEN: 31 March 2013 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC 20001, USA (courtyard)
So, next meetup coincides with Eileen's birthday party. We'll be meeti... |
4f10cce9-3a3b-4ac8-9782-bfa610e78cb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Quotes: January 2011
Post quotes.
* Please post all quotes separately, so that they can be voted up/down separately. (If they are strongly related, reply to your own comments. If strongly ordered, then go ahead and post them together.)
* Do not quote yourself.
* Do not quote comments/posts from LW. (... |
5cdcf3bf-51c8-47f5-ba7f-ad5cf9c37b9d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Is Curiosity All You Need? On the Utility of Emergent Behaviours from Curious Exploration
During purely curious exploration, the JACO arm discovers how to pick up cubes, moves them around the workspace and even explores whether they can be balanced on their edges.
Curious exploration enables OP3 to walk upright, bala... |
4d3e0f25-fe90-43ef-af7a-b9762ea468f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Toy Models of Superposition: what about BitNets?
Summary
In this post I want to briefly share some results I have got after experimenting with the equivalent version of the simple neural networks that the authors used here to study how superposition and poly-semantic neurons come about in neural networks trained with ... |
85215bba-b53e-4bfa-8ee9-c674de13d0e9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Robin Hanson on Lumpiness of AI Services
Basically, in this post Robin Hanson argues that AI systems will have multiple separate components, rather than be a big uniform lump, arguing by analogy with the multiplicity of firms in the economy. Some excerpts:
>
> Long ago people like Marx and Engels predicted that th... |
6ac0936c-2e21-4df7-9c28-66370aea2588 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (Partial) failure in replicating deceptive alignment experiment
Hi, I'm Claudia. I'm new.
I was attempting to recreate Apollo Research's deceptive alignment experiment in a different context, but did not really succeed and would like to figure out what I could do more effectively.
In the original experiment, an AI i... |
5965f2b4-6d8c-42f1-880c-ce55b144efb0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are you working on? June 2011
This is the third What Are You Working On? thread. Click on the 'waywo' tag to see previous threads. I'm going to do these every two months instead of every month from now on. So here's the question:
What are you working on?
Here are some guidelines
* Focus on projects that you ... |
f0a2098c-ba18-4d5f-9de3-3c7dbdde9086 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Was a terminal degree necessary for inventing Boyle's desiderata?
My composition teacher in college told me that in some pottery schools, the teacher holds up your pot, examines it, comments on it, and then smashes it on the floor. They do this for your first 100 pots.
In that spirit, this post's epistemic status is ... |
17e8665e-3e0e-45bf-8b31-2c0ae36188c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Proposal: Tune LLMs to Use Calibrated Language
I have been thinking a lot recently about the problems of hallucination and sycophancy in LLMs, having developed a couple of hypotheses on the matter. This post will discuss those hypotheses, and a proposal for how to mitigate these problems if my ideas hold. As with my l... |
f867eacb-4196-46d9-93d0-6b2f3f594cb2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Escalation Outside the System
Transcript of a discussion on a friend's wall on the merits of responding "guillotines" to union text-bankers when asked what the country needs more of:
> Me: When you respond "guillotines" what do you expect the campaign volunteer reading the response to think you're advocating for?
>... |
bbd60fd6-051b-4f44-862b-ee2d90810abb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Fractional progress estimates for AI timelines and implied resource requirements
*This post was written by Mark Xu based on interviews with Carl Shulman. It was paid for by Open Philanthropy but is not representative of their views. A draft was sent to Robin Hanson for review but received no response.*
Summary
=====... |
b6f67f6d-b462-4370-bfee-ac3ffc2be8d2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Very Dark Mouth-Shaped Non-fancy Chocolate?
I have somewhat unusual preferences in chocolate:
* I want it to be very smooth, and about the right shape to sit against my hard palate. If it has corners it's difficult to refrain from chewing (though this isn't the only factor). This means most of the standard shapes fo... |
21c3fde2-d5b1-41d3-99aa-47a8cb9d33a0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Extreme Altruistic Personality Type
http://www.science20.com/rogue_neuron/addicted_being_good_psychopathology_heroism-60137
|
55ad5eb5-9932-41f3-83bf-993ca200253a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cryonics as Charity
Imagine you accept the main idea of cryonics, that if we freeze brains future technology is likely to be able to extract the encoded information and revive the person digitally. [1] While this currently costs about $120K/person, if we did it routinely to everyone it could probably get down below $1... |
5a92e317-1df1-4751-946a-9b0878fd803f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Shutdown-Seeking AI
This is a draft written by [Simon Goldstein](https://www.simondgoldstein.com/), associate professor at the Dianoia Institute of Philosophy at ACU, and [Pamela Robinson](https://pamela-robinson.com/), postdoctoral research fellow at the Australian National University, as part of a series of papers f... |
9e8edc63-4a5b-4e5a-8f52-e0d8c4612f07 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Interview w/ Zvi Mowshowitz] Should we halt progress in AI?
(Cross-posted at The Futurati Podcast)
After reviewing Zvi's analysis of the Future of Life Institute's open letter, I decided I wanted to have him on for a longer chat about the issue. The result is episode 130 of the Futurati Podcast, "Should we halt prog... |
d2e0bf52-f1ac-4267-8ea1-ade7b9887891 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Question for Prediction Market people: where is the money supposed to come from?
I've only watched some prediction market news from the outside, so forgive my basic question, but are prediction markets supposed to bring in money besides having new entrants bring in cash?
I've often seen prediction markets compared to... |
2bc70ce2-cdf0-4647-b875-b9ca87fd6292 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rebooting AI Governance: An AI-Driven Approach to AI Governance
This article is part of a series on Decision-Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU). Building on an introduction to complexity modeling and DMDU, this article focuses on the application of this methodology to the field of AI governance. If you haven't read ... |
80557119-98d0-4dc9-93bb-1997991ddb93 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Incomplete Contracting and AI Alignment.
1 Introduction
---------------
When we design and deploy an AI agent, we specify what we want it to do. In reinforcement learning, for example, we specify a reward function, which tells the agent the value of all state and action combinations. Good algorithms then generate A... |
2a7b94f0-8eea-4510-aa78-6d7b0348c95d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AXRP Episode 12 - AI Existential Risk with Paul Christiano
YouTube link
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I (Daniel Filan) have conversations with researchers about their papers. We discuss the paper and hopefully get a sense of why it’s been written a... |
df860db1-3b00-491c-9332-185276d5b1d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 3
"I solemnly swear that I am up to no good."
Fred and George had carried concealed broomsticks at all times since the previous year's troll attack. When they heard Harry Potter's prophecy at the Quidditch final they flew just over the castle walls and then Apparated to... |
dc66b908-d712-40d0-a6cf-1a4824dbee0b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Do models know when they are being evaluated?
Interim research report from the first 4 weeks of the MATS Program Winter 2025 Cohort. The project is supervised by Marius Hobbhahn.
Summary
Our goals
* Develop techniques to determine whether models believe a situation to be an eval or not and which features of the e... |
9026cfec-1aa3-435f-8831-83a16fd00354 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Strong substrate independence: a thing that goes wrong in my mind when exposed to philosophy
Certain kinds of philosophy and speculative fiction, including kinds that get discussed here all the time, tend to cause a ridiculous thing to happen: I start doubting the difference between existence and non-existence. This ... |
5c9f4c5a-d234-4531-aa45-85510277a42c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Challenge: Ants
Aichallenge.org has started their third AI contest this year: Ants.
> The AI Challenge is all about creating artificial intelligence, whether you are a beginning programmer or an expert. ... [Y]ou will create a computer program (in any language) that controls a colony of ants which fight against ot... |
110856c7-ef12-4acc-963d-693558b9207d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington DC: Jobs/project show and tell
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington DC: Jobs/project show and tell
WHEN: 20 October 2013 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC 20001, USA
We'll be meeting to tell each other about the things we're working on. (I think this ... |
dc57e52b-b1b5-472d-8926-fce486b204ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 102: Caring
June 3rd, 1992.
Professor Quirrell was very sick.
He'd seemed better for a while, after drinking his unicorn's blood in May, but the air of intense power which had surrounded him afterward hadn't lasted even a day. By the Ides of May, Professor Quirrell's hands had been trembling again, though su... |
0045496f-7b5e-4613-bebf-26512fb2dcb4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Translation] In the Age of AI don't Look for Unicorns
Translator's note: This is another article from Jeffery Ding's Around the Horn. In short, the article suggests that a good metric of AI adoption is the number of daily average tokens used by a company. Companies which achieved successful adoption are those who use... |
81bb2903-18f9-44f2-ba8e-4f2d4922b79f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Politics as Charity
Related to: Shut up and multiply, Politics is the mind-killer, Pascal's Mugging, The two party swindle, The American system and misleading labels, Policy Tug-of-War
Jane is a connoisseur of imported cheeses and Homo Economicus in good standing, using a causal decision theory that two-boxes on New... |
d409d9fd-6213-4b23-bb98-8d3226103493 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Biases to watch out for while job hunting?
I'm in the process of searching for a new job. I'm currently employed, but I'm dissatisfied with my salary and career growth options. I've done a couple of phone interviews and one face-to-face interview already, with several others lined up next week. The face-to-face interv... |
50621210-e17f-46dd-8db5-8646b9b4e486 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Why AI alignment could be hard with modern deep learning
*Click lower right to download or find on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, etc.*
[Today’s world
Transformative AI
Digital people
World of
Misaligned AI
World run by
Something else
or
or
Stable, galaxy-wide
civilization](https://www.col... |
a69d86ab-dd5e-49df-852d-57f79ae84236 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | A Socially Aware Reinforcement Learning Agent for The Single Track Road Problem
I Introduction
---------------
While humans can cope with new situations quite easily, even state-of-the-art algorithms struggle with new situations that they haven’t been trained on. Unfortunately, when it comes to autonomous vehicles ... |
3c395805-f79e-42f0-9e90-fb64772ccf84 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Theories of Biological Inspiration
Many influential AI techniques either explicitly draw inspiration from or are similar to mechanisms found in biology.
* Biological neurons and artificial neural networks
* The visual cortex and convolutional neural networks
* Attention and attention mechanisms like Transformers
... |
562e7cf9-a304-4eba-a7d7-21c58f138675 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | Won’t AI be just like us?
The degree to which an Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) would resemble us depends heavily on how it is implemented, but it seems that differences are unavoidable. If AI is accomplished through whole brain emulation and we make a big effort to make it as human as possible (including giving i... |
ff003250-dc74-4c2f-9211-6f3a7388402a | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Sometimes you can solve a problem by intentionally making it "worse" to such an extreme degree that the problem goes away. Real-world examples: I accidentally spilled cooking oil on my shoe, forming an unsightly stain. When soap and scrubbing failed to remove it, I instead smeared oil all over both shoes, turning them... |
2d2a8e74-5ed8-454f-8a4b-c9750db453c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Uncertainty in all its flavours
Acknowledgements:
This research began during the SERI MATS program, under the joint mentorship of John Wentworth, Nicholas Kees, and Janus. Thanks also to Davidad, Jack Sagar, and David Jaz Myers for discussion.
Abstract:
I think that there is a uniform correspondence between flavours ... |
c7a2da2d-d872-4836-9123-f340fa1962ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Archipelago Model of Community Standards
Epistemic Status: My best guess. I don't know if this will work but it seems like the obvious experiment to try more of.
Epistemic Effort: Spent several months thinking casually, 25ish minutes consolidating earlier memories and concerns, and maybe 10ish minutes thinking ab... |
9cbbd0c4-7a9a-4bc7-9657-079492f060a3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Walking and Navigating
This is the first time I've written something in public, so a portion of my brain is shouting that I'm embarrassing myself.
This post is intended to take some common-sense ideas about foresight during project work, and make them more concretely actionable. It could definitely be improved.
---... |
3da7b638-2ce7-4391-82c2-424d439b9fa2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Parable Of The Fallen Pendulum - Part 1
One day a physics professor presents the standard physics 101 material on gravity and Newtonian mechanics: g = 9.8 m/s^2, sled on a ramp, pendulum, yada yada.
Later that week, the class has a lab session. Based on the standard physics 101 material, they calculate that a cer... |
e0b32f8b-5c23-441c-b19f-a3689e6f5aff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Virtue signaling, and the "humans-are-wonderful" bias, as a trust exercise
There's a common thread that runs through a lot of odd human behavior that I've recognized:
* People often accept surface explanations of their own and others' habits when the nefarious explanations would say something bad about them.
* The ... |
5a4c0ecd-fc58-467b-a69e-c3a3e0ec9c70 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Pain
Some time ago, I came across the All Souls College philosophy fellowship exam. It's interesting reading throughout, but one question in particular brought me up short when I read it.
What, if anything, is bad about pain?
The fact that I couldn't answer this immediately was fairly disturbing. Approaching it fr... |
5e50cad7-7ae0-4eb9-a1df-401f68ce0389 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Belief in the Implied Invisible
Today's post, Belief in the Implied Invisible was originally published on 08 April 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> That it's impossible even in principle to observe something sometimes isn't enough to conclude that it doesn't exist.
Discuss the post here (r... |
c5e39149-d207-4eec-a5e3-8ceeddeca16c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | HCMD-zero: Learning Value Aligned Mechanisms from Data
1 Introduction
---------------

Figure 1: Illustration of HCMD-zero training and evaluation. HCMD-zero starts by acquiring human game play trajectories. The data is then used to model human particip... |
9c1a2d77-7623-48f7-9846-c2414d134afb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What other causes are relevant to LessWrong?
This post is prompted by a short discussion with Wei Dai. He says:
Perhaps we should get other causes to participate/recruit on LW? Actually, why aren't they here already? We have a bunch of individuals with non-SIAI interests, but no causes other than SIAI, despite Elieze... |
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