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1efb26f7-c773-4c96-91a3-eec5612694f9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Light cone eating AI explosions are not filters
Some existential risks can’t account for any of the Great Filter. Here are two categories of existential risks that are not filters:
Too big: any disaster that would destroy everyone in the observable universe at once, or destroy space itself, is out. If others had been... |
94ddf599-0d58-441d-ac37-f1870e330396 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What does it mean for an AGI to be 'safe'?
*(Note: This post is probably old news for most readers here, but I find myself repeating this surprisingly often in conversation, so I decided to turn it into a post.)*
I don't usually go around saying that I care about AI "safety". I go around saying that I care about "... |
44ecab57-f58b-4592-9549-28f4bdc079ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ask and Guess
There's a concept (inspired by a Metafilter blog post) of ask culture vs. guess culture. In "ask culture," it's socially acceptable to ask for a favor -- staying over at a friend's house, requesting a raise or a letter of recommendation -- and equally acceptable to refuse a favor. Asking is literally j... |
f710dc6a-4585-4e3e-a2c1-cc668c1e2c3b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Algorithmic Improvement Is Probably Faster Than Scaling Now
The Story as of ~4 Years Ago
----------------------------
Back in 2020, a group at OpenAI [ran a conceptually simple test](https://openai.com/research/ai-and-efficiency) to quantify how much AI progress was attributable to algorithmic improvements. They took... |
5cf771b8-703f-4c18-89e1-41faa0e4fd24 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Will Eating Nuts Save Your Life?
TLDR: Study on death avoidance, which interests a lot of people here, and commentary on what sort of informative priors we should have about health hypotheses.
From Steve Sailer, who is responding to Andrew Gelman, who got sent this study. An observational study showed that peo... |
30f645cd-1deb-4a12-b307-6f241befcd16 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kelly *is* (just) about logarithmic utility
This post is a response to SimonM's post, Kelly isn’t (just) about logarithmic utility. It's an edited and extended version of some of my comments there.
To summarize the whole idea of this post: I'm going to argue that any argument in favor of the Kelly formula has to go t... |
2a34eff6-944a-40b8-827c-664d3e1792cc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Cambridge UK
Discussion article for the meetup : Cambridge UK
WHEN: 05 February 2012 11:00:00AM (+0000)
WHERE: JCR, Trinity College, Cambridge, CB2 1TQ, UK
Meet at the Great Gate if you dont know where the JCR is. Great Gate is on St. John's Street opposite the bookshop "Heffers".
Topic this week: "Is AI... |
e43356d9-9b53-4d10-ac17-3cb3406b2d9b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preferences in subpieces of hierarchical systems
In a previous post, I looked at hierarchical systems, and at subagents within them that could develop their own preferences. This was due to a conversation with Dylan Hadfield-Menell.
This post will ignore subagents, and answer Dylan's original question: can we deduce ... |
dc5a9b76-ee63-4692-a1a3-287d341881e1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Programming in Dependent Type Theory
All code in this article was written in the Lean theorem prover, which means you can copy any of it and paste it [here](https://leanprover.github.io/tutorial/?live) to try it out.
## Arithmetic and Interaction
While Lean is nominally an interactive theorem prover, much of the pow... |
f7a402ea-d767-4485-bc7e-6697ad08f20f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Introducing The Long Game Project: Improving Decision-Making Through Tabletop Exercises and Simulated Experience
> “Imagine a commercial airline pilot trusted to navigate turb... |
8ca05cf7-0747-41aa-b6ff-d5b0ecd6890b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Announcement: AI alignment prize round 4 winners
We (Zvi Mowshowitz and Vladimir Slepnev) are happy to announce the results of the fourth round of the [AI Alignment Prize](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/juBRTuE3TLti5yB35/announcement-ai-alignment-prize-round-3-winners-and-next), funded by Paul Christiano. From July 1... |
663795bd-acc0-4d25-b316-f530d4370a69 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Room Opening
One of the housemates we share our 8br 2-unit Somerville MA house with is moving across the street, and we're looking for another one! Their room is opening up October 1st, though they could potentially be out by September 1st if need be. We also have an adjacent bedroom that's open now but isn't as nice,... |
a6b43bdb-8f0e-4165-9a77-51b2cd8c949f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | First Triangle LW Meetup 5/4 7pm (Raleigh/Durham/Chapel Hill) [Repost]
Note: This announcement was previously posted here but was not promoted at the time. I assume this was either because the date was too far out or there was no summary break. Please let me know if I should delete that post or ask for people to down... |
8abc0330-fbc7-4350-8cec-3735bdd6a774 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | quantum immortality and local deaths under X-risk
quantum immortality and local deaths under X-risk
-------------------------------------------------
assume quantum immortality, for mankind as a whole when facing [X-risks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Existential_risk_from_artificial_general_intelligence). then, de... |
cb851871-944c-4a35-a5e9-9788730810df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Academic Epistemology Cross Section: Who Cares More About Status?
Bryan Caplan writes:
> Almost all economic models assume that human beings are Bayesians... It is striking, then, to realize that academic economists are not Bayesians. And they're proud of it!
>
> This is clearest for theorists. Their epistemo... |
b38a266e-bea3-4542-a058-10809e5a83aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Raising the Sanity Waterline
To paraphrase the Black Belt Bayesian: Behind every exciting, dramatic failure, there is a more important story about a larger and less dramatic failure that made the first failure possible.
If every trace of religion was magically eliminated from the world tomorrow, then—however much im... |
6581c453-a54a-4db1-bda3-ad0dc37c5599 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looking speakers on ML/AI topics in NYC area
Sorry if this is spammish, but since there are quite a few ML/AI people here I figured I'd ask.
I co-organize well-attended NYC Machine Learning Meetup and we're always looking for speakers, so if anyone is in the area and has something they'd like to present, message me.
... |
55d99fce-ea46-4bb5-8e61-828288511eaf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Behold the Pale Child (escaping Moloch's Mad Maze)
“Agnus” by Konstantin Korobov
I.
> Bakkalon is a key figure in George R.R. Martin’s 1975 short story “And Seven Times Never Kill Man!”.
>
> Centuries in the future, humanity had spread to colonies on hundreds of different planets and lived in relative peace, but wa... |
3b37aebb-1507-4903-ac9f-05a1c56d9d3e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Spoiler-Free Review: Witcher 3: Wild Hunt (plus a Spoilerific section)
Contrast with other recent spoiler-free review: Spoiler-Free Review: Assassin’s Creed Odyssey.
In part one of this review, the true spoiler-free section, I seek to answer the question “Should I Play This Game?” while giving the absolute minimum of... |
6e25779f-5def-4069-b546-c538427d3656 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Shallow review of technical AI safety, 2024
from aisafety.world
The following is a list of live agendas in technical AI safety, updating our post from last year. It is “shallow” in the sense that 1) we are not specialists in almost any of it and that 2) we only spent about an hour on each entry. We also only use p... |
308951cb-2a83-4dba-8f2f-d8af1a48b67c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If you've attended LW/SSC meetups, please take this survey!
I've put together a survey to gather information on the state of meetups around the world, and in particular to figure out what kinds of actions it might be useful for people interested in global meetup coordination to take. It's branded as being for SlateSta... |
89080e14-bd61-4fa1-8481-28583b9bfce7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Basic Question about LLMs: how do they know what task to perform
**My understanding of LLMs:**
I have some very basic understanding of LLM and the underlying transformer architecture. As I understand it, these LLMs are, as an analogy, basically a much-improved version of autocomplete. During training they are shown ... |
65429679-095b-4dd2-be8c-717640010514 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Open problem: how can we quantify player alignment in 2x2 normal-form games?
In my experience, [constant-sum games](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~hajiagha/474GT13/Lecture09102013.pdf) are considered to provide "maximally unaligned" incentives, and [common-payoff games](http://www.cs.umd.edu/~hajiagha/474GT13/Lecture09102013.... |
99729b87-13ab-49ab-845b-831cef2dd6e4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Learning Existing Social Conventions via Observationally Augmented Self-Play
Introduction
------------
A ubiquitous feature of social interaction is a need for individuals to coordinate (Lewis, [1969](#bib.bib22); Shoham and
Tennenholtz, [1997](#bib.bib32); Bicchieri, [2005](#bib.bib4); Stone
et al., [2010](#bib.bi... |
ac477034-81bc-4cd6-9e65-b5c8ea2edff8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Building Weirdtopia
> "Two roads diverged in the woods. I took the one less traveled, and had to eat bugs until Park rangers rescued me."
> —Jim Rosenberg
Utopia and Dystopia have something in common: they both confirm the moral sensibilities you started with. Whether the world is a libertarian utopia of th... |
120624f9-c3e9-446c-9f95-0e1295dba549 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Film about Stanislav Petrov
I searched around but didn't see any mention of this. There's a film being released next week about Stanislav Petrov, the man who saved the world.
The Man Who Saved the World
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2277106/
Due for limited theatrical release in the USA on 18 September 2015.
http://th... |
18f7e7b7-4a21-4a37-8d90-c3efe5c6dfb9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Romantic efficiency
I have a post on romantic efficiency at H+.
|
4f8a3fc3-f8ee-43ce-9fbb-963bb8a6507c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A review of Where Is My Flying Car? by J. Storrs Hall
Suppose you were to reach into the mirror universe, where everything is inverted, and pull out a book that is the exact opposite of Robert Gordon’s The Rise and Fall of American Growth.
Instead of being written by a scholarly economic historian steeped in the stud... |
11f59a94-e9c1-4fca-a49e-a21bacdff2a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Survey supports ‘long covid is bad’ hypothesis (very tentative)
I wanted more clues about whether we live in a world where really bad long covid outcomes are vanishingly rare (but concentrated a lot in my Twitter) or in a world where for instance a large fraction of ‘brain fogs’ reported are anything like the horrors ... |
eea1811b-a030-44ee-9a1d-275f3f4a683d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A non-mystical explanation of "no-self" (three characteristics series)
This is the second post of the "a non-mystical explanation of insight meditation and the three characteristics of existence" series. You can read the first post, explaining my general intent and approach, here.
On the three characteristics
So, ju... |
9cdb8375-ff8f-481d-b6c3-8205ec4a86c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Using Reinforcement Learning to try to control the heating of a building (district heating)
In short, we are trying to use Reinforcement Learning to try to control the heating of a building (district heating) with the input buildings zone temperature, outdoor temperature. To not use the real building during training ... |
063f5b9c-7905-4674-8df0-389108f34c02 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should you kiss it better?
Whenever my toddler hurts himself, I offer to kiss it better. This works like magic - he immediately stops crying and carries on playing happily. Placebos are wonderful things.
Doing this makes me happier, it makes him happier, and also serves as a useful diagnostic tool - if he carries on ... |
ad5f6359-9908-41be-b6ae-8ada4cdb9d23 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AGI safety from first principles: Superintelligence
In order to understand superintelligence, we should first characterise what we mean by intelligence. We can start with Legg’s well-known definition, which identifies intelligence as [the ability to do well on a broad range of cognitive tasks](https://arxiv.org/abs/07... |
449ee682-0566-4cad-8c6f-cfc4830569b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link]s Recent developments in life-extension
Progeria is a very rare disease which causes children to undergo symptoms extremely similar to rapid aging, and generally dying before the age of 20. Recent results suggest that a fairly cheap drug may help reduce the aging systems, and it is possible it may have similar e... |
2211ce42-2b78-4c2c-a96f-d32779772a79 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Is China Becoming a Science and Technology Superpower? Jeffrey Ding's Insight on China's Diffusion Deficit
[**Jeffrey Ding**](https://jeffreyjding.github.io)is an Assistant Professor of Political Science at George Washington University. He had connections with the EA community (e.g. [here](https://youtu.be/1mExA_xdgnA... |
c6403168-51b2-4bc1-9ff6-4b5932e4cfb3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A Semitechnical Introductory Dialogue on Solomonoff Induction
(*Originally posted in December 2015: A dialogue between Ashley, a computer scientist who's never heard of* [*Solomonoff's theory of inductive inference*](https://arbital.com/p/solomonoff_induction/)*, and Blaine, who thinks it is the best thing since slice... |
ba7fa9ce-1f92-4823-b585-9dd10b00fe12 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post15
A corollary of Sutton's Bitter Lesson is that solutions to AI safety should scale with compute. [1] Let's consider a few examples of research directions that are aiming at this property: Deliberative Alignment: Combine chain-of-thought with Constitutional AI to improve safety with inference-time compute (se... |
3c360e3f-f8ae-47d2-8706-ae98c0f46f46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fixing the arbitrariness of game depth
This is just an idea that came to me today. I didn't do any literature search and don't know if it's new.
The "depth" of a game is the length of the longest chain of players where each one beats the next e.g. 60% of the time. Games with more depth are supposed to involve more kn... |
4bf93fbf-ff72-49e5-857b-22784999cee6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] flowchart for rational discussions
I came across the following flow chart on a climate change blog and thought LWers would be interested to comment:
http://thoughtcatalog.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/A-Flowchart-to-Help-You-Determine-if-Yoursquore-Having-a-Rational-Discussion.jpg |
0ca2a2d5-e4ee-46bc-ab6d-9683da1428f5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ben Goertzel: The Singularity Institute's Scary Idea (and Why I Don't Buy It)
[...] SIAI's Scary Idea goes way beyond the mere statement that there are risks as well as benefits associated with advanced AGI, and that AGI is a potential existential risk.
[...] Although an intense interest in rationalism is one of the... |
8c153a7d-2e31-44f4-831f-ee3283904e9e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knowing What You Know
From Kahneman and Tversky:
> "A person is said to employ the availability heuristic whenever he estimates frequency or probability by the ease with which instances or associations could be brought to mind"
I doubt that's news to any LessWrong readers - the availability heuristic isn't exactly c... |
8596ec2b-19d9-4bd5-9a71-92731a58a0f1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A bicycle for your memory
Cross posted from sortega.github.io
Computers have the need to store huge amounts of information and, at the same time, being able to access that memory at blazingly fast rates. This poses the problem of how to get a fast and large memory when hardware memories are either fast, like register... |
e19dc280-2840-4376-8b9c-5a5d7724a065 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to incentivize people doing useful stuff on Less Wrong
Currently, LWers get +1 karma for a comment upvote, and +10 karma for a main post upvote. But clearly, there are other valuable things LWers could do for the community besides writing comments and posts. Writing isn't everyone's forte. Why not award karma for ... |
a0db93d9-2549-421e-8782-254d7f55dc50 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The danger of error descriptions
Complex, interconnected, automated systems increasingly control our world. We use cryptographically-secure systems of change-management (git) to ensure only authorized individuals can make changes to the programs of decisions that power these automated systems, but we remain subject to... |
c240f93f-149c-4525-9604-8c53029ecbed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Computational signatures of psychopathy
I think that among the worst imaginable AI development outcomes would be if humans were to build artificially intelligent systems that exhibited psychopathic behavior. Though this sort of concern might appear to some as anthropomorphizing or otherwise far-fetched, I hope to demo... |
18e7795e-198c-48ec-a68a-9ce00758681b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scientific studies and trust
A study found that registering outcomes meant that positive outcomes dropped a lot. The researchers looked at 30 large National Heart Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) funded trials between 1970 and 2000. Of those studies, 17 or 57% showed a significant positive result. They then compared ... |
fb6449f2-d99e-4fc8-8b8a-5faf7d5d4b73 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Soups as Spreads
We tend to cook in quantities where there are leftovers: it's not really practical to cook exactly the right amount of food, and it's much better to have a bit extra than not enough. Plus with several people working from home we tend to go through a good amount of leftovers for lunches. One thing I've... |
7174696a-c027-4d0b-addb-0d58d4f25606 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | FlexChunk: Enabling 100M×100M Out-of-Core SpMV (~1.8 min, ~1.7 GB RAM) with Near-Linear Scaling
Abstract
Handling large-scale sparse matrices is a fundamental task in many scientific and engineering domains, yet standard in-memory approaches often hit the limitations of available RAM. This paper introduces FlexChunk,... |
15b73f55-d115-409c-b707-5cd38d3e3df9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | TFW No Incels
Do incels exist? A psychography of memes, suffering, community, and radical acceptance. |
c0f38fe0-03c1-4902-86ad-60608d5582d4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI Safety Newsletter #1 [CAIS Linkpost]
The [Center for AI Safety](https://www.safe.ai/) just launched its first AI Safety Newsletter. The newsletter is designed to inform readers about developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Subscribe [here](https://newsletter.safe.ai/subscribe?utm_mediu... |
65a856ec-6ef8-4acc-825a-9e8f8faa654f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | If you’re very optimistic about ELK then you should be optimistic about outer alignment
*[The content of this short, nontechnical post is entirely unoriginal – it’s a reframing which I’ve personally found helpful for understanding the thrust of ELK. More specifically, all of the ideas here can be found in the*[*ELK do... |
161347bb-2f69-4c7d-8e10-72f563fe6f12 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Antisymmetric relation
An antisymmetric relation is a relation where no two distinct elements are related in both directions. In other words. $R$ is antisymmetric iff
$(aRb ∧ bRa) → a = b$
or, equivalently, $a ≠ b → (¬aRb ∨ ¬bRa)$
Antisymmetry isn't quite the [compliment](https://arbital.com/p/set_theory_compliment... |
7e7d995f-d35d-487d-8e50-34befd003147 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Methodology for predicting speed dating participants' decisions
In my last post I described phenomena that I used to predict speed dating participants' decisions by estimating the participants' general selectivity and perceived desirability. I was planning on following up with a discussion of the phenomena that I used... |
7589da85-7a5a-40c1-bb61-583c0e1946b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Not all theories of consciousness are created equal: a reply to Robert Lawrence Kuhn's recent article in Skeptic Magazine [Link]
I found this article on the Brain Preservation Foundation's blog that covers a lot of common theories of consciousness and shows how they kinna miss the point when it comes to determining if... |
9dea10af-292f-433d-9142-4a7bc1f6ca86 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | More Thoughts on the Human-AGI War
In https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xSJMj3Hw3D7DPy5fJ/humanity-vs-agi-will-never-look-like-humanity-vs-agi-to the author argued that in an active conflict, a human-AGI war would look very different from how many expect. Namely, it would likely involve many slow burn, clandestine moves... |
f8564474-1edb-43a0-a0a2-80508105bbeb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington, D.C.: Fun & Games
WHEN: 05 April 2015 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Reynolds Center
We will be meeting in the Kogod Courtyard of the Donald W. Reynolds Center for American Art and Portraiture (8th and F Sts or 8th and G Sts NW, go st... |
59c8d82e-9f23-4dc6-af1f-55dfc264453c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Would more model evals teams be good?
If multiple model evaluations organizations similar to the ARC evals team emerge and compete for big tech clients, does this drive a "race to the bottom," where more lenient evals teams get larger market share? I'm imaging a scenario in which there are government restrictions on d... |
a5e50d54-4a33-4e45-a6f1-2ccd604c1a96 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Using modal fixed points to formalize logical causality
This post is a simplified introduction to existing ideas by Eliezer Yudkowsky, Wei Dai, Vladimir Nesov and myself. For those who already understand them, this post probably won't contain anything new. As always, I take no personal credit for the ideas, only for t... |
7f1302dc-71f3-4316-81bd-21d4bc6fb015 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Pandemic is Only Beginning: The Long COVID Disaster
I wrote this for my Substack. Posting it here as I hope that I am wrong, and I'm looking for people to debunk my arguments. I found this post and this post, but both are old and contain numerous factual errors (I don't think they were wrong at the time of writing... |
8bc51557-532e-4bb0-8fbe-6f8e094a2930 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Andrew Ng wants to have a conversation about extinction risk from AI
Andrew Ng writes:
> I'd like to have a real conversation about whether AI is a risk for human extinction. Honestly, I don't get how AI poses this risk. What are your thoughts? And, who do you think has a thoughtful perspective on how AI poses this r... |
43f66b81-61cd-4465-a246-b8d5be6e15d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Weekly Event] Alignment Researcher Coffee Time (in Walled Garden)
I'm organizing a weekly one hour coffee time for alignment researchers to talk about their research and what they're interested about, every Monday starting tomorrow. The time (9pm CEST, see here for your timezone) was decided after I polled a number o... |
d6d3f8a6-8505-4185-91bc-bbdaeb12e0b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Delegated agents in practice:
How companies might end up selling AI services that act on behalf of consumers and coalitions, and what this implies for safety research
Epistemic status: speculative. I’m no expert in delegation nor in CAIS. I think I have good intuitions on entrepreneurship and user design. I started ... |
54426612-43d2-4e12-ba8f-319e586290b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Compression of morbidity
Previous: Aging and the geroscience hypothesis
This post distills Chapter 19 of the Handbook of the Biology of Aging:
Crimmins, E. M., Zhang, Y. S., Kim, J. K., & Levine, M. E. (2021). Trends in morbidity, healthy life expectancy, and the compression of morbidity. In Handbook of the Biology ... |
f57d6402-5a32-482b-8a6e-b73661218766 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How can I reframe my study motivation?
Hello LessWrong! First time posting here. I am a second-year college student, and I am interested in doing independent learning outside my coursework. Books I've been eyeing / trying to read include The Sequences, The Selfish Gene, and Superintelligence.
However, I've noticed th... |
4d02bc5b-05f2-4184-9898-d2f6090688a3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Comparing Human-Centric and Robot-Centric Sampling for Robot Deep Learning from Demonstrations.
I Introduction
---------------
Learning from Demonstrations (LfD) is a well-established
approach where a robot learns a policy from example
trajectories provided by a fallible human supervisor [[12](#bib.bib12), [4](#bib... |
a36f67ff-59f5-4d73-8852-0e6d0e1bcc08 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post267
YouTube link The ‘model organisms of misalignment’ line of research creates AI models that exhibit various types of misalignment, and studies them to try to understand how the misalignment occurs and whether it can be somehow removed. In this episode, Evan Hubinger talks about two papers he’s worked on at ... |
f38b8473-106e-4b95-a9b4-d0b8ff892ad2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Most transferable skills?
So, transferable skills: skills that, upon improvement, increase your ability in other areas (and also improve other, higher-level skills).
A basic example would be reading/writing. Knowing how to read and write allows one to access a huge amount of other skills and resources which are other... |
053be020-8d27-4036-bbe0-4e808524c5b1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | About BOINC
Has anyone here done any volunteer computing work by the Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing (BOINC) software? If yes, which project did you choose and why. |
197cd598-7fe9-43a1-82f3-5bcaac3cc469 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We tend to forget complicated things
One consistent pattern I've noticed in studying math is that, if some material feels very difficult, then I might remember it in an upcoming exam, but I will almost certainly have forgotten most of it one year later. The success story behind permanent knowledge gain is almost alway... |
54d3ad89-9174-47f5-9cdb-e0255b5a815f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Closed-Source Evaluations
Public tripwires are no tripwires.
I'm writing a quick and dirty post because the alternative is that I wait for months and maybe not write it after all. I am broadly familiar with the state of interpretability research but do not know what the state of model evaluations is at the moment.
... |
a11203cd-8a35-4137-a931-2e2bae08f548 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lightning Post: Things people in AI Safety should stop talking about
This is experimenting with a new kind of post which is meant to convey a lot of ideas very quickly, without going into much detail for each.
Things I wish people in AI Safety would stop talking about
A list of topics people concerned about x-risk ... |
e2caf3a2-d7af-4d4d-866a-d20438b1849b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Social effects of algorithms that accurately identify human behaviour and traits
Related to: Could auto-generated troll scores reduce Twitter and Facebook harassments?, Do we underuse the genetic heuristic? and Book review of The Reputation Society (part I, part II).
Today, algorithms can accurately identify perso... |
a3bb85d0-3ea6-46c5-b8c0-116c231aa55a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anthropic: Progress from our Frontier Red Team
Note: This is an automated crosspost from Anthropic. The bot selects content from many AI safety-relevant sources. Not affiliated with the authors or their organization and not affiliated with LW.
----------------------------------------
In this post, we are sharing wha... |
f3864365-c1d6-4837-a0ba-0673d6c66f61 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Muddling Through Some Thoughts on the Nature of Historiography
“Did it actually happen like that?” is the key question to understanding the past. To answer this historians uncover a set of facts and then contextualize the information into an event with explanatory or narrative power.
Over the past few years I’ve bee... |
c40f3058-f37b-462a-9039-ce461f50ddca | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | What I Think, If Not Why
**Reply to**: [Two Visions Of Heritage](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/12/two-visions-of.html)
Though it really goes tremendously against my grain - it feels like sticking my neck out over a cliff (or something) - I guess I have no choice here but to try and make a list of *just* my posi... |
8579215d-231d-4437-9277-fedd216bb61c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some constructions for proof-based cooperation without Löb
This post presents five closely-related ways to achieve proof-based cooperation without using Löb's theorem, and muses on legible cooperation in the real world.
(Edit: maybe they're closer to just-use-Löb's-theorem than I originally thought! See this comment.... |
d46bd243-f48e-43da-b0a0-1b5ed4d56be9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Kairos is hiring a Head of Operations/Founding Generalist
Summary
Are you looking for an impactful role in AI safety? Look no further!
Kairos is a recently founded AI safety fieldbuilding organization with the mission of mitigating the risks from advanced AI by helping fill talent gaps and needs within the field. Ou... |
fb5aa833-e9f8-48a2-b1bc-a5dd65572d1e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Encouragement to Instill Confidence?
I found this interesting and decided to overthink it.
Before proceeding, pause to think about whether this seems right to you and why.
The thesis here is something like:
1. There is a right amount of confident to be.
2. Encouragement proportionally raises confidence.
3. ... |
587db5d8-2a1e-4d00-9096-2fe6207d79eb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Finding Features Causally Upstream of Refusal
This work is the result of Daniel and Eric's 2-week research sprint as part of Neel Nanda and Arthur Conmy's MATS 7.0 training phase. Andy was the TA during the research sprint. After the sprint, Daniel and Andy extended the experiments and wrote up the results. A notebook... |
35a0bc79-5ae5-4fc4-97af-b0a7101a006a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | LINK: Most of EvoPsych is pseudoscience
The evolutionary origin of human behavior is doubtless a valuable scientific field, but the way the research is currently being conducted raises several concerns.
By request from readers, I've added some excerpts:
> EvoPsych’s most common failing is its fallacious methodology,... |
6ae0aeeb-3489-472d-bdcc-6c09cba0f6d0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Emotional Installation of Software
I have recently been thinking about this question, "what is it exactly that helps install religious software so deeply and dogmatically into the brain?" Often those who are strongly religious fall into a few categories: (1) They were trained to believe in specific aspects of religion... |
5d14c689-741c-4e41-b610-96c1e72bfce2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Kolmogorov complexity of a superintelligence
The most simple, able to self-improve "seed" for a superintelligence must be how complex?
Give your (wild) estimation or a pure guess in the terms of bits.
Do you reckon it is 1000 bits enough? At least 1000000 is required? More than 10^20 bits?
I wonder what your a... |
4ef03e70-b07d-4aca-b281-cf74060c2d56 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is the orthogonality thesis?
The [orthogonality thesis](https://arbital.greaterwrong.com/p/orthogonality/) is the claim that any level of intelligence is compatible with any set of terminal goals. Or in other words, morality and intelligence can be seen as different dimensions that are “orthogonal” to each othe... |
d4e70acb-eaaf-441c-b6cf-6bda76b0812a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Robin Hanson AI X-Risk Debate — Highlights and Analysis
This linkpost contains a lightly-edited transcript of highlights of my recent AI x-risk debate with Robin Hanson, and a written version of what I said in the post-debate analysis episode of my Doom Debates podcast.
Introduction
I've poured over my recent 2-hour... |
05a6408f-dee3-4603-aaad-fc80c89fe6f2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Convex function
A convex [https://arbital.com/p/-3jy](https://arbital.com/p/-3jy) "only curves upwards." To check whether a function is convex, use the following procedure:
1. Draw the graph of the function.
2. Select any two points in the graph.
], Jurassic-1 [[69](#bib.bib69)], and Gopher [[82](#bib.bib82)] cover a vast space of possible use cases [[18](#bib.bib18)], fr... |
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