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b8dc5d8d-192a-4dbc-950f-5c99943957f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Any significant updates on long covid risk analysis?
[ETA: This question is specifically about risk analysis of long covid, given current knowledge. Discussion should be about things such as:
* base rates
* priors and posteriors for LC risk
* evidence that would make one update in favor of certain new policies wit... |
741b3449-a3f6-4b80-8550-1581622acc57 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "I just heard a comment by Braddock of Lovesystems that was brilliant: All that your brain does when you ask it a question is hit "search" and return the first hit it finds. So be careful how you phrase your question.
Say you just arrived at work, and realized you once again left your security pass at home. You ask you... |
bddd6882-8e34-4135-a6a0-17133a07cafe | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Antitrust-Compliant AI Industry Self-Regulation
A n titr u s t- C o m p l i a n t A I I n d u s tr y
S e l f - R e g u l a tio n
Cullen O’Keefe
Research Scientist (Policy), OpenAI
Research Affiliate, Centre for the Governance of AI, Future of Humanity Institute
Research... |
086d82dd-e9da-4b87-ac95-9f04623473e3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI Safety Newsletter #7: Disinformation, Governance Recommendations for AI labs, and Senate Hearings on AI
Welcome to the AI Safety Newsletter by the [Center for AI Safety](https://www.safe.ai/). We discuss developments in AI and AI safety. No technical background required.
Subscribe [here](https://newsletter.safe.ai... |
c9e583c6-f5e6-4ee9-842e-1e4424eb0fbf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Moral gauge theory: A speculative suggestion for AI alignment
[Epistemic status: Speculative.
I've written this post mostly to clarify and distill my own thoughts and have posted it in an effort to say more wrong things.]
Introduction
The goal of this post is to discuss a theoretical strategy for AI alignment, part... |
01260a22-2c94-47e1-92b4-fc8b72f6e358 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Matt Yglesias on AI Policy
Yglesias is a widely read center-left journalist. Co-founder of Vox, ex-NYT. Note the implicit invitation: “I also try to make it clear to people who are closer to the object-level work that I’m interested in writing columns on AI policy if they have ideas for me, but they mostly don’t.”
Fu... |
779bd11f-6989-43e5-8e60-b54d548e4ad0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monthly Roundup #14: January 2024
There’s always lots of stuff going on. The backlog of other roundups keeps growing rather than shrinking. I have also decided to hold back a few things to turn them into their own posts instead.
BAD NEWS
I wonder if it is meaningful that most of the bad news is about technology?
I ... |
d6849a54-ea20-4d35-b2e9-8c2454dbbed2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dangerous capability tests should be harder
Note: I am cross-posting a previous blog post from Planned Obsolescence that I wrote in August
Imagine you’re the CEO of an AI company and you want to know if the latest model you’re developing is dangerous. Some people have argued that since AIs know a lot of biology now —... |
14212938-7b5b-49f1-aff4-410a2008c62e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Conditioning Predictive Models: Open problems, Conclusion, and Appendix
*This is the final of seven posts in the [Conditioning Predictive Models Sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/n3utvGrgC2SGi9xQX) based on the paper “[Conditioning Predictive Models: Risks and Strategies](https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.00805)” by... |
ca450d62-647b-493a-81cd-a0b142f05d39 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A My Little Pony fanfic allegedly but not mainly about immortality
My Little Pony (generation 4) has 2 immortal characters, who get a lot of sympathy from the bronies. "How sad! Poor Celestia and Luna must see everyone they know grow old and die. How much better to die yourself!"
I tried to write a fanfic saying t... |
fa96924d-f244-4843-953f-bfc77b043b14 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Concave Utility Question
This post will just be a concrete math question. I am interested in this question because I have recently come tor reject the independence axiom of VNM, and am thus playing with some weaker versions.
Let Ω be a finite set of deterministic outcomes. Let L be the space of all lotteries over the... |
7fa964ed-6f47-414f-8352-14f937a0b7da | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ARENA 6.0 - Call for Applicants
TL;DR:
We're excited to announce the sixth iteration of ARENA (Alignment Research Engineer Accelerator), a 4-5 week ML bootcamp with a focus on AI safety! Our mission is to provide talented individuals with the ML engineering skills, community, and confidence to contribute directly to t... |
ff94c1e0-24f9-453f-996c-2ba5c1e73996 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Overcoming Paradox of Choice Through Random Selection
Epistemic Status: Personal anecdote with reasonable sounding theory.
Background
I love to read. There is no activity I like more than it, or one I want to do as often. I’ve been blessed with an intensely vivid imagination, and twenty minutes spent reading a well-... |
242af5e1-2693-4a53-8729-56aa42df2be8 | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "This is a post about my own confusions. It seems likely that other people have discussed these issues at length somewhere, and that I am not up with current thoughts on them, because I don’t keep good track of even everything great that everyone writes. I welcome anyone kindly directing me to the most relevant things,... |
41ccd623-c991-468b-a46f-cb2bc3e1d7af | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | continue working on hard alignment! don't give up!
continue working on hard alignment! don't give up!
--------------------------------------------------
let's call "hard alignment" the (["orthodox"](https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=6821)) problem, historically worked on by MIRI, of preventing [strong agentic AIs](stron... |
d6050f85-5f35-472b-afed-221ceaa3be8b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Apocalypse, corrupted
Epistemic status: don't take it seriously
In a post apocalyptic setting, the world would be run by the socially skilled and the well connected, with corruption and nepotism ruling.
I say that at the start, because I've been trying to analyse the attraction of post-apocalyptic settings: why do w... |
c65f46b0-f2ab-4489-803f-2fc2f6714b17 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Solving the two envelopes problem
Suppose you are presented with a game. You are given a red and a blue envelope with some money in each. You are allowed to ask an independent party to open both envelopes, and tell you the ratio of blue:red amounts (but not the actual amounts). If you do, the game master replaces the ... |
dd7a4fa1-7526-4993-99d5-4491c4bd3ef6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mike Darwin on the Less Wrong intelligentsia
He has resumed posting at his blog Chronopause and he is essential reading for those interested in cryonics and, more generally, rational decision-making in an uncertain world.
In response to a comment by a LW user named Alexander, he writes:
> I have no objection to you... |
ffa81e54-90a6-403a-b909-770cac59e333 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Exploring the Multiverse of Large Language Models
[Crossposted from Medium.com.]
Credit: Alexas_Fotos from Pixabay
Large language models can generate texts under different tasks, for example, question answering, machine translation, document summarization, etc. Beyond being right and wrong, large language models can ... |
a6466b02-fa98-4174-a85f-488aca1b9a79 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Ultimatum Game
l
The Ultimatum Game is a simple game in which two players attempts to split a $100 reward. They can communicate with each other for 10 minutes, after which:
* Player 1 proposes an integer split (e.g. $75 for Player 1, $25 for Player 2)
* Player 2 may Accept or Reject this split. If Player 2 r... |
46eb4476-1243-4557-94cd-cbd6ff006ccb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Tracr: Compiled Transformers as a Laboratory for Interpretability | DeepMind
Abstract
--------
Interpretability research aims to build tools for understanding machine learning (ML) models. However, such tools are inherently hard to evaluate because we do not have ground truth information about how ML models actually... |
69b19018-f8ca-4868-8153-2787820e277c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Social Impact, Effective Altruism, and Motivated Cognition
Money is one measure of social status. People compare themselves favorably or unfavorably to others in their social circles based on their wealth and their earning power, and signals thereof, and compare their social circles favorably or unfavorably with other... |
9d23b831-e24e-4a8a-91f8-c4d574c6f53b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A plan for spam
I'm getting tired of banning tons of similar articles about jewelry etc. in the discussion section. Our situation looks like a textbook-perfect use case for a Bayesian spam filter (ahem). Or just implement the 5 karma limit that was discussed earlier, that would help too. |
e1bbf39d-f849-4505-bdb7-3815cf2f9f90 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The US Already Has A Wealth Tax
In Modeling A Wealth Tax, Paul Graham writes:
> Even a 0.5% wealth tax would start to keep founders away from a state or country that imposed it.
The US, however, effectively already has a ~0.3%-0.4% wealth tax.
Specifically, the long-term capital gains rate in the US is 20% for hig... |
8dbb4461-6e11-424d-8bda-c72848b1ad12 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An early stage prioritisation model
What do you care about in this world? I claim that this doesn't matter much, due to convergent instrumental goals of rational agents (for a more technical account, see here). For any set of values humans are likely to have, there are a set of instrumental goals that will be necessar... |
249f56f0-6b99-4157-bff4-219b6c508dcc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Bigger Models Generalize Better
There is still a lingering belief from classical machine learning that bigger models overfit and thus don't generalize well. This is described by the bias-variance trade-off, but this no longer holds in the new age of machine learning. This is empirically shown by phenomena like dou... |
c5bb9bd1-9b1e-4e80-b831-dfcb7ee8f8ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] GAZP vs. GLUT
Today's post, GAZP vs. GLUT was originally published on 07 April 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Fleshes out the generalized anti-zombie principle a bit more, and describes the game "follow-the-improbability".
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments to the origina... |
1fae8397-9328-41b5-9379-6958d448dc09 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | A Proposed Test to Determine the Extent to Which Large Language Models Understand the Real World
Large Language Models such as GPT-3 and PaLM have demonstrated an ability to generate plausible-sounding, grammatically-correct text in response to a wide range of prompts. And some Language-Model-based applications such a... |
c3541b31-8127-4a94-acde-0c8c99a0e54f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If I were a well-intentioned AI...
II: Acting in a world
Classifying images is one thing. But what if I'm an agent that is actually active in some setting?
The previous approach still applies: detecting when I'm out of distribution, and trying to keep my behaviour compatible with the various reward function that coul... |
4c5d3b7d-3a2e-4927-9f84-13f8d9a7df60 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] That Tiny Note of Discord
Today's post, That Tiny Note of Discord was originally published on 23 September 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Eliezer started to dig himself out of his philosophical hole when he noticed a tiny inconsistency.
Discuss the post here (rather than in the comments ... |
13078b96-7032-4dde-b1e0-5a188e6e84b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Preventing discussion from being watered down by an "endless September" user influx.
In the thread "LessWrong could grow a lot, but we're doing it wrong.", I explained why LessWrong has the potential to grow quite a lot faster in my opinion, and volunteered to help LessWrong grow. Of course, a lot of people were co... |
84e5758b-4314-4ed4-932b-e84479c73499 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI Ethical Committee
Is there any AI ethical committee within EA that individuals can privately and securely consult regarding potentially sensitive AI safety-related issues?
Consider the following two cases:
* #whistleblowing A ML researcher in a big tech company comes upon information regarding potentially dangero... |
59f1e13e-81d7-43a6-a8d8-3b8575fc2e19 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Notes on Claude 4 System Card
Anthropic released Claude 4. I've read the accompanying system card, and noted down some of my remarks.
Alignment assessment: system prompt mix-ups
There's a worrying theme that's repeated in the alignment evaluations:
> The most concerning issues that we observed in our testing of Cla... |
56fa156d-7234-4fc1-9300-04499997ee16 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Good Place has a line that defines the human dilemma
First off, Kudos to Less Wrong which had some comments about the TV show The Good Place, so I watched it on Netflix and enjoyed it a lot.
There is one line from the show that encapsulates the human dilemma
``There is a chicken sandwich that, if you eat it, you... |
812096b3-d4b0-4a2c-a0d3-02d198639ebd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Sparrows may be vulnerable to sunk-cost-like effects
You walk into a store that sells two identical candies. Would you buy the candy that ordinarily costs $2 at 50% off (for one dollar), or the candy that ordinarily costs 10$ for 80% off (for one dollar)?
In an isomorphic situation, sparrows preferred the lat... |
6d69c834-0cae-4fe1-a98c-118e22e88694 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meaningful things are those the universe possesses a semantics for
Logic courses are very risk-averse to talking about philosophy. This is bad, because philosophy is the motivation/intuition for logic & TCS. This essay gives a scout's view.
Epistemic status: A computer scientist would nod through Chapters 2-5, at lea... |
6c54bc36-ba4d-4a2b-9dfa-d6a1a15afb27 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI coordination needs clear wins
*Thanks to Kate Woolverton and Richard Ngo for useful conversations, comments, and feedback.*
EA and AI safety have invested a lot of resources into building our ability to get coordination and cooperation between big AI labs. So far, however, despite that investment, it doesn’t seem... |
fab5ebbd-d9cd-4fd7-bd8d-cd6299af2c3d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Tortuga Rationalists Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Tortuga Rationalists Meetup
WHEN: 14 July 2011 02:34:01PM (-0700)
WHERE: 850 Williams Way, Mountain View, CA
We are a South Bay LessWrong Rationality group who meets every Thursday at the Tortuga (http://tortuga.coop) lounge in Mountain View f... |
e08f2cdf-1621-4bb6-8d53-cabe1ae10c3d | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "So perhaps you're reading all this, and asking: "Yes, but what does this have to do with reductionism?"
Partially, it's a matter of leaving a line of retreat. It's not easy to take something important apart into components, when you're convinced that this removes magic from the world, unweaves the rainbow. I do plan t... |
e34cd81d-10f4-41aa-85a3-c57b2c511198 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Nanosystems are Poorly Abstracted
To do something, you need energy, and you need information. Energy to do the thing, and information to define what's being done. The mental image I have of a "robot", has inputs of both continuously. The input of energy comes as electricity, and the input of information comes in the f... |
f6e1f69c-ca83-418b-a841-dad373786177 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meditation Retreat: Immoral Mazes Sequence Introduction
I just got home from a six day meditation retreat and began writing.
The catch is that I arrived at the retreat yesterday.
I knew going in that it was a high variance operation. All who had experience with such things warned us we would hate the first few day... |
6b1660b8-6130-4dec-9350-a1e106554101 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Test Cases for Impact Regularisation Methods
*Epistemic status: I’ve spent a while thinking about and collecting these test cases, and talked about them with other researchers, but couldn’t bear to revise or ask for feedback after writing the first draft for this post, so here you are.*
A motivating concern in AI al... |
b433c58d-3b62-4640-ac2c-7aff110063e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Actually updating
Actually updating can be harder than it seems. Hearing the same advice from other people and only really understanding it the third time (though internally you felt like you really understood the first time) seems inefficient. Having to give yourself the same advice or have the same conversation with... |
b109bf8a-3aeb-49b0-b04a-fbb47230a9bc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI prediction case study 4: Kurzweil's spiritual machines
Myself, Kaj Sotala and Seán ÓhÉigeartaigh recently submitted a paper entitled "The errors, insights and lessons of famous AI predictions and what they mean for the future" to the conference proceedings of the AGI12/AGI Impacts Winter Intelligenceconference. S... |
45d0e476-3c73-4283-9cd0-c7aedb53ea86 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Well-Kept Gardens Die By Pacifism
Today's post, Well-Kept Gardens Die By Pacifism was originally published on 21 April 2009. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Good online communities die primarily by refusing to defend themselves, and so it has been since the days of Eternal September. Anyone accul... |
ba7919ae-342f-4afd-8816-b598d1eccd80 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Environments as a bottleneck in AGI development
Given a training environment or dataset, a training algorithm, an optimiser, and a model class capable of implementing an AGI (with the right parameters), there are two interesting questions we might ask about how conducive that environment is for training an AGI. The fi... |
783dfb08-d8c1-4d63-9b00-08958073ba5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Organ donation versus cryonics
Simultaneously signing up for organ donation and cryonics versus only cryonics. Does having less organs decrease the likelihood of cryonics (including revival) working? Is it a good idea to have only your head frozen anyway, to save on electricity and storage? Do the benefits of organ do... |
b365e575-7736-4202-ace1-dfa97f9aacb3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Constitutions are a tool to reduce societal scale risk
This work was funded by Polaris Ventures
As AI systems become more integrated into society, we face potential societal-scale risks that current regulations fail to address. These risks include cooperation failures, structural failures from opaque decision-maki... |
857695fb-611b-4d56-ab9f-ae2b23a1e90b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Masculinity—A Case For Courage
HOW THIS POST CAME ABOUT
When I put a call out for non-zero-sum topics from subscribers, it was my brother who first replied with masculinity—pointing me to the work of author Richard Reeves.
> “I think the danger of zero-sum thinking is present … men are suffering because women are... |
b1392fc1-856c-435f-9e59-8e35ab1c8f42 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Fate Worse Than Death
The claim has been made that, all things being equal, it is better to be alive than dead. I dissent.
It is much more complicated than this. If I knew somehow that I would spend the next fifty years of my life in Guantanamo bay, I would rather kill myself than suffer that fate. If a fortun... |
7324472a-16d4-4fec-93a9-756085b81a59 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Top li’l pots
I am a connoisseur of a certain genre of mostly-snack food, combining aesthetics, convenience and the idiosyncratic types of actual food that I like to eat (central examples of food whose substance I like, ignoring form, are parsley, farro, black lentils, pecans, craisins, dark chocolate, feta cheese, sw... |
cd5c50fd-3671-470b-8e5f-45f7c1eb57a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AXRP Episode 13 - First Principles of AGI Safety with Richard Ngo
YouTube link
This podcast is called AXRP, pronounced axe-urp and short for the AI X-risk Research Podcast. Here, I (Daniel Filan) have conversations with researchers about their papers. We discuss the paper and hopefully get a sense of why it’s been wr... |
3e10acba-7d97-4841-8b46-5edeb7202d20 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An approach to logical counterfactuals inspired by the Demski prior
This is a probabilistic approach to logical counterfactuals inspired by the Demski prior. Given a sentence ϕ, we wish to ask what other logical sentences are true in the world C(ϕ) where we correctly counterfactually assume ϕ. I spoke about this befor... |
e888ab34-c589-4e5d-8be7-9e1795668d6a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | OpenAI: "Scaling Laws for Transfer", Hernandez et al.
OpenAI has released a paper on scaling laws for transfer learning from general English text to python code. [Author's tweet summary](https://twitter.com/Hernandez_Danny/status/1357035777406853128).
Abstract: "We study empirical scaling laws for transfer learning b... |
71f37391-be89-4e6d-bebc-5f6169341845 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Forecasting Thread: Existential Risk
This is a thread for displaying your probabilities of an existential catastrophe that causes extinction or the destruction of humanity’s long-term potential.
Every answer to this post should be a forecast showing your probability of an existential catastrophe happening at any give... |
bcd2b745-7d57-4536-9b65-cf2d95703117 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Community bias in threat evaluation
If I were to ask the question "What threat poses the greatest risk to society/humanity?" to several communities I would expect to get some answers that follow a predictable trend:
If I asked the question on an HBD blog I'd probably get one of the answers demographic disaster/dysgen... |
c3b723f8-a954-4574-a14b-d5cfbc01c22e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The 2023 LessWrong Review: The Basic Ask
Each December, the LessWrong community reflects on the best blogposts of yesteryear, to decide which posts stood the tests of time.
In this post, I aim to:
* Explain some subtleties of what I'm hoping we get out of the Annual Review
* Make some explicit asks (even of busy ... |
7b2989f3-1fc7-4e70-9fbe-6b26397a3a8d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Machine learning 2.0 : Engineering Data Driven AI Products
1 Introduction
---------------
Attempts to embed machine learning-based predictive models into products and services in order to make them smarter, faster, cheaper, and more personalized will dominate the technology industry for the foreseeable future. Curr... |
5d22d6d0-00c7-4119-b429-31d203ebb36c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Why the beliefs/values dichotomy?
I'd like to suggest that the fact that human preferences can be decomposed into beliefs and values is one that deserves greater scrutiny and explanation. It seems intuitively obvious to us that rational preferences must decompose like that (even if not exactly into a probability distr... |
ffe43a40-85cd-4b36-ac04-9d4a8891a7fd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Using Prompt Evaluation to Combat Bio-Weapon Research
With many thanks to Sasha Frangulov for comments and editing
Before publishing their o1-preview model system card on Sep 12, 2024, OpenAI tested the model on various safety benchmarks which they had constructed. These included benchmarks which aimed to evaluate wh... |
5764d66d-660e-4f0e-bfd4-435c4e0a5929 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In Search of Slack
Original article: Studies on Slack
1
Proposition: If you have enough free resources you can evolve irreducibly complex features.
Imagine a bunch of yeast cells added to a barrel of malt when beer is being brewed. They have an ocean of free resources at their disposal. Surely, the evolutionary pre... |
ed9a9f9a-a9ed-447d-9767-db99153d4c84 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Thoughts on reward engineering
Note: This is the first post from part five: possible approaches of the sequence on iterated amplification. The fifth section of the sequence breaks down some of these problems further and describes some possible approaches.
----------------------------------------
Suppose that I woul... |
d611d19a-1dd5-4a31-af84-09581ec61ca8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Life Has a Cruel Symmetry
t ≈ 0s
I am born into knowledge.
I know the world is dangerous, but not malign. If I were unshielded, I would quickly be killed, torn apart by eddies in spacetime that grow and shrink and combine and split, turning all they encounter to ash.
But I know that I am shielded. I have been given... |
f432e528-3e73-47af-bae2-d1c1151e2279 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Domain of Your Utility Function
**Unofficial Followup to:** [Fake Selfishness](/lw/kx/fake_selfishness/), [Post Your Utility Function](/lw/zv/post_your_utility_function/)
A perception-determined utility function is one which is determined only by the perceptual signals your mind receives from the world; for inst... |
89c8b88a-9833-4754-a528-a166daa71a46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Human-AI Complementarity: A Goal for Amplified Oversight
By Sophie Bridgers, Rishub Jain, Rory Greig, and Rohin Shah
Based on work by the Google DeepMind Rater Assist Team: Vladimir Mikulik, Sophie Bridgers, Tian Huey Teh, Rishub Jain, Rory Greig, Lili Janzer (randomized order, equal contributions)
Human oversight... |
12257344-56f1-49f4-9786-08aaf0c7b301 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Don't Think About the Thing Behind the Curtain.
Foreword
This is a submissions to the rational animation writing contest this script is Halloween themed and inspired by their most recent video (Please imagine Yann LeCun in his Pjs/HJ). I wanted to get it out ASAP.
I have left out any types of directions for animation... |
7ae578d8-11a6-4274-939c-d3a4ee1dcfc8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meditations On Moloch
[Content note: Visions! omens! hallucinations! miracles! ecstasies! dreams! adorations! illuminations! religions!]
I.
Allan Ginsberg’s famous poem, Moloch:
> What sphinx of cement and aluminum bashed open their skulls and ate up their brains and imagination?
>
> Moloch! Solitude! Filth! Uglin... |
9880af56-86d8-4d82-bff7-61f1810877c7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An Argument For Prioritizing: "Positively Shaping the Development of Crypto-assets"
None |
5ad3be2e-1004-4740-8bdb-9b08ea5bbbe3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety Camp 2024
AI Safety Camp connects you with a research lead to collaborate on a project – to see where your work could help ensure future AI is safe.
Apply before December 1, to collaborate online from January to April 2024.
We value diverse backgrounds. Many roles but definitely not all require some kno... |
c82e4fae-6368-4132-86a0-612a9dd8420b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Best non-textbooks on every subject
The best way to learn a subject is undoubtedly by reading a textbook on it. But I find textbooks a drudgery, and tend to give up after a couple of chapters.
On the other hand I don't need a deep broad formal knowledge in every subject. I often just want to know enough that I know w... |
7d95e9eb-8cb2-40b5-8bbd-18eb97e532f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : First meetup of Rationality Zürich
Discussion article for the meetup : First meetup of Rationality Zürich
WHEN: 01 November 2015 03:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Sphères, Hardturmstrasse 66, 8005 Zürich
Purposes of this meetup: - Get the community together and talking to each other - Find out what people are inte... |
9274f41d-b60f-416c-90ab-726d934eff21 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/aisafety.info | AI Safety Info | What is adversarial training?
Adversarial training is a safety technique that pits two (or more) models against each other. This is helpful for training and safety because it enables us to explore and correct harmful inputs that could otherwise go unexplored due to limited training data or limited human oversight. “Ad... |
6f811b9b-f530-47a8-a324-ebd9f9256e0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | If we're in a sim...
My father, who is home recovering from surgery, emailed the following web page to me and a few other members of my family, and expressed interest in reading interesting responses.
> If We Are In A Computer Simulation
>
> Is the universe just a big computer simulation running in another universe?... |
1c65015c-5b97-4a3f-8b13-f329a4eaee68 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | For Policy’s Sake: Why We Must Distinguish AI Safety from AI Security in Regulatory Governance
Over the past few months, I’ve been conducting independent policy research focusing on understanding how AI safety concepts can be translated into AI regulation / policy governance.
I am a laywer working in AI Governance fo... |
3cfb4498-e8af-442e-a90b-cd9914ff9548 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Feb. 23 - Mar. 1, 2015
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately ... |
7adbfbd8-8a6a-4ffc-bd3d-66229283043e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Singularity Institute Strategic Plan 2011
Thanks to the hard work and cooperation of Singularity Institute staff and volunteers, especially Louie Helm and Luke Muehlhauser (lukeprog), we now have a Strategic Plan, which outlines the near-term goals and vision of the Institute, and concrete actions we can take to fulfi... |
63b26656-854d-4fe4-8ae6-9201e0d661f0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Semantic Disagreement of Sleeping Beauty Problem
This is the tenth post in my series on Anthropics. The previous one is Beauty and the Bets.
Introduction
In my previous posts I've been talking about the actual object-level disagreement between halfers and thirders - which of the answers formally is correct and which... |
57d2c93f-8b85-4ad3-9482-8424198662f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong |
Examples of governments doing good in house (or contracted) technical research
An open question is the degree to which governments can do good technical research, either in-house or commissioned. Some possible ways in which this could be relevant:
* Evals (although this likely could be contracted in a successful wa... |
5693015e-4eee-4e88-8336-bd4f8219f727 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Civil Law and Political Drama
The purpose of this essay is to clarify to YOU, the mind reading this essay, your relation to law, your characteristic blind spot around adversaries, and what sorts of processes are competing for attention in the humans you’re instantiated through.
For contracts and property not to just ... |
98149c22-614e-452a-921b-444a731ea9b0 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What I talk about when I talk about AI x-risk: 3 core claims I want machine learning researchers to address.
Recently, as PCSOCMLx, I (co-)hosted a session with the goal of explaining, debating, and discussing what I view as "the case for AI x-risk". Specifically, my goal was/is to make the case for the "out-of-contro... |
9ddf760e-f127-47ee-8164-ba8e0a6a9a60 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Introduction to STAMP
Aeronautics and Astronautics
MIT
Introduction to STAMP: Part 1
Prof. Nancy G. Leveson
1
2
3
Some Current Uses
Aviation Maritime
Automobiles Dams
Defense Manufacturing
Transportation Communication
Healthcare/Hospitals Rail
Workplace Safety Robotics
Petrochemicals Unmanned vehicles (air, ground, wa... |
061301ec-0621-4119-89ff-d407700fccee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How would the Scaling Hypothesis change things?
The Scaling Hypothesis roughly says that current Deep Learning techniques, given ever more computing power, data, and perhaps some relatively minor improvements, will scale all the way to human-level AI and beyond. Let's suppose for the sake of argument that the Scaling ... |
c281ba05-9aa2-48c7-b595-034f55af5afa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Review: Mathematics for Computer Science (Suggestion for MIRI Research Guide)
tl;dr: I read Mathematics for Computer Science (MCS) and found it excellent. I sampled Discrete Mathematics and Its Applications (Rosen)—currently recommended in MIRI's research guide—as well as Concrete Mathematics and Discrete Mathema... |
e3a9ace2-b8bf-4b4c-80ee-719c05ac3333 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Risk Premiums vs Prediction Markets
aka Why (some) market forecasts are biased and what can we do about them?
tldr; When you care about an outcome, it will skew the odds you'll bet at. (To insure against bad outcomes). When everyone cares about an outcome, it skews the market odds.
People (including myself) often po... |
519e3829-f75c-4ac8-be88-4c30f2205237 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Not Lose an Argument
Related to: Leave a Line of Retreat
Followup to: Talking Snakes: A Cautionary Tale, The Skeptic's Trilemma
"I argue very well. Ask any of my remaining friends. I can win an argument on any topic, against any opponent. People know this, and steer clear of me at parties. Often, as a sign of... |
e1fb5dc0-8b25-4f04-a9c7-481ca91a50ff | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Turing Test and Machine Intelligence
The recent news of Eugene Goostman passing the turing test has raised all kinds of debate around what counts as passing the turing tests and whether or not the chatbots are attempting to do it properly.
The Turing Test is not a good criterion for machine intelligence.
The compute... |
4ce64a1c-6125-47e9-b64a-cf5ea2d0e1b4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | (In)appropriate (De)reification
So obviously there’s a 2x2 here: appropriate/inappropriate vs dereification/reification. I think the basic concepts here are unfortunately not that familiar to everyone, so I'll lay them out at least a bit.
Reification I've already discussed, and is perhaps worth reading if the word is... |
700c7837-6388-43e9-9401-6a0d00bdf096 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Cooperative model knob-turning
(Cross-posted from my medium channel)
When you are trying to understand something by yourself, a useful skill to check your grasp on the subject is to try out the moving parts of your mental model and see if you can simulate the resulting changes.
Suppose you want to learn how a rocket... |
904b1aa0-1849-41f2-86b6-f6ace6f2fee2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | A Citizen's Guide to Artificial Intelligence
[]
[]
© 2021 Massachusetts Institute of Technology
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from t... |
49531de0-1297-465d-ae56-ef7b29d0abf7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | FAI, FIA, and singularity politics
In discussing scenarios of the future, I speak of "slow futures" and "fast futures". A fast future is exemplified by what is now called a hard takeoff singularity: something bootstraps its way to superhuman intelligence in a short time. A slow future is a continuation of history as w... |
c285a43e-dc40-4df1-8031-cd4198cc7d8c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Improved regret bound for DRL
% operators that are separated from the operand by a space
% autosize deliminaters
% operators that require brackets
% operators that require parentheses
% Paper specific
There is a simple way to somewhat improve the regret bound for DRL we derived befor... |
46e6c3d0-f4b0-499c-991e-edc77e64c9e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 5
"What do you mean 'bureaucratically impossible'?" said Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres.
"It just is," said Mad-Eye Moody.
"Nothing 'just is'," Harry said, "Everything happens for a material reason. What precisely is preventing you from acquiring the permits?"
"I sus... |
b9932d85-b300-46b6-82e8-7ce2e509b255 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A tentative dialogue with a Friendly-boxed-super-AGI on brain uploads
[Unnecessary explanation: Some people asked me why I thought the world of Friendship is optimal is dystopic… During the discussion, I inferred that what they saw as a “happy story” in AI safety is something like this: we’ll first solve something lik... |
d2ecfbd8-2f4f-41c7-912e-a2f25015c0c7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Scaling up psychology via Scientific Regret Minimization.
1 Introduction
---------------
The standard methodology in psychological research is to identify a real-world behavior, create a laboratory paradigm that can induce that behavior, and then test a variety of hypotheses on a group of participants. This methodo... |
fa7aeedd-19c0-4533-98f1-d043887ca226 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Singularity in the Zeitgeist
As a part of public relations, I think it's important to keep tabs on how the Singularity and related topics (GAI, FAI, life-extension, etc.) are presented in the culture at large. I've posted links to such things in the past, but I think there should be a central clearinghouse, and a... |
60ce5270-71fb-4f93-84d6-160d3d8483c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dremeling
In high school, I was on a robotics team (FRC) who, in honesty, were basically incompetent. (Me included.) We were bad at building a robot, bad at programming it, bad at design, but most relevantly for this post bad at planning ahead.
The particular instance which added a term to my internal monologue was t... |
0645a360-14dc-4838-92bd-e6ff68ccae88 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Using the universal prior for logical uncertainty
|
ebf666bc-7772-4893-b0ac-81e14e5928af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Priors and Prejudice
I
Imagine an alternate version of the Effective Altruism movement, whose early influences came from socialist intellectual communities such as the Fabian Society, as opposed to the rationalist diaspora. Let’s name this hypothetical movement the Effective Samaritans.
Like the EA movement of today,... |
2976534e-aa20-49b0-9521-d41eef33b448 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conditioning Predictive Models: Open problems, Conclusion, and Appendix
This is the final of seven posts in the Conditioning Predictive Models Sequence based on the paper “Conditioning Predictive Models: Risks and Strategies” by Evan Hubinger, Adam Jermyn, Johannes Treutlein, Rubi Hudson, and Kate Woolverton. Each pos... |
4f17a269-0e5d-4f86-8049-9227a4f18781 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Proper scoring rules don’t guarantee predicting fixed points
*Johannes Treutlein and Rubi Hudson worked on this post while participating in* [*SERI MATS*](https://www.serimats.org/)*, under Evan Hubinger's and Leo Gao's mentorship respectively. We are grateful to Marius Hobbahn, Erik Jenner, and Adam Jermyn for useful... |
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