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d89f5e28-a186-49ef-8ed4-1da60699c234 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dissolving the Fermi Paradox, and what reflection it provides
While the argument was posted on LessWrong previously, now it has the neat form of a paper on arXive by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler and Toby Ord
TL;DR version: the use of Drake-like equations, with point estimates of highly uncertain parameters, is wrong... |
d73f3a4a-29a2-4f70-922b-4ebccf62a003 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Polyamory is Rational(ist)
Using survey data to explore the connection between polyamory, Rationality, intuition, evolutionary psychology, weirdness, religion, utopianism, consequentialism, and San Francisco Bay.
I'm linking instead of cross-posting because there's a huge number of charts and a good discussion alread... |
a469df33-5c54-4ce4-9667-86b27d1db20b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Donna Capsella and the four applicants, pt.1
Once upon a time, in a dark, cruel world – maybe a world darker and crueller than it is – there lived a woman who wanted a piece of the action. Her name was Capsella Medik, but we remember her as Donna Capsella. This is an anecdote from her youth, told by a man who lived to... |
eb0dca27-1cdc-4861-bdf1-9940f7041ec5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Towards trying to feel consistently energized
I go through weeks or months-long periods where I feel exhausted throughout the day and it's been getting worse over the past few years. I thought it might be sleep apnea - my dad has it bad and for him getting tested and hooked up to a Darth Vader mask changed his life - ... |
d5f94a18-3c95-46cf-b05b-b45281cfdfaf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #139]: How the simplicity of reality explains the success of neural nets
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever bee... |
f5c274cd-b896-48de-874a-ac466b721a81 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Percentage Model of a Person
The standard psychological questionnaire for depression doctors have given me is the PHQ-9. It names a symptom, and for each symptom it gives four possible responses in severity. The responses are worth points, the points are totaled, and the final score is supposed to be indicative of h... |
6f2ba313-3dd6-425e-91e3-45a47c3640d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dirty old men and greedy young women
When people see relationships where the man is much older than the woman, they often suspect that both partners are there for superficial and unseemly benefits; money for the woman and a sexual object for the man. If a young man was with the same young woman, why does it reflect le... |
f7cfe05d-6e4d-4cc9-8155-cc1caca79d34 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some Thoughts on Conditional Forecasts – Lessons from the 2020 Election
Disclaimer: This post was written as part of my job at Open Phil, but it hasn’t been reviewed closely by anyone else at Open Phil, and the opinions and recommendations I put forward are mine only and don’t reflect Open Phil’s views.
In early 2020... |
421b5aa5-2f57-435b-acc5-b603e12709ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Paper]: Artificial Intelligence in Life Extension: from Deep Learning to Superintelligence
There are two views on the best strategy among transhumanists and rationalists: The first involves the belief that one must invest in life extension technologies, and the latter, that it is necessary to create an aligned AI tha... |
d6e2443b-e004-4ecd-923c-c118725f6239 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Memetic hazards of AGI architecture posts
I've been thinking recently and writing a post about potential AGI architecture that seems possible to make with current technology in 3 to 5 years, and even faster if significant effort will be put to that goal.
It is a bold claim, and that architecture very well might not b... |
27ee6403-3606-4f4a-b635-a0015b4d59ac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Guardians of Ayn Rand
Today's post, Guardians of Ayn Rand was originally published on 18 December 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Ayn Rand, the leader of the Objectivists, praised reason and rationality. The group she created became a cult. Praising rationality does not provide immunity to ... |
6d61831e-3c6e-4cd1-9db0-4ea57ac6013f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Covid 1/21: Turning the Corner
Aside from worries over the new strains, I would be saying this was an exceptionally good week.
Both deaths and positive test percentages took a dramatic turn downwards, and likely will continue that trend for at least several weeks. Things are still quite short-term bad in many places,... |
950e468d-22cb-4de5-9a6b-c7837a612ea7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Incentive Learning vs Dead Sea Salt Experiment
(Target audience: People both inside and outside neuroscience & psychology. I tried to avoid jargon.)
1. Background context
One of my interests is the neuroscience of motivation. This is a topic I care about for the same obvious reason as everyone else: to gain insight ... |
3ba1a58b-af44-4c71-a346-4a42a4c7b796 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | ML4Good Summer Bootcamps - Applications Open [deadline extended]
ML4Good bootcamps are 10-day bootcamps focusing on upskilling in technical AI safety, exploring governance, and delving into conceptual topics. ML4Good is a non-profit project and free of charge for the participants. We're seeking motivated individuals w... |
96bff37a-4cc1-4169-81bf-5bd075a89d88 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Paris Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Paris Meetup
WHEN: 14 February 2015 02:00:00PM (+0100)
WHERE: Café des Arts et Métiers, 51 Rue de Turbigo, 75003 Paris France
A bit of last minute organization, we had talked about it on our mailing list but hadn't settled on a date. Better late than never!
... |
833168cc-decb-46ab-a165-1f13143d3e2e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Godshatter Versus Legibility: A Fundamentally Different Approach To AI Alignment
Disclaimers
* This is a response to, IMHO, a new pessimism that's rapidly ascending here; example one, example two, example three
* This is a super complex subject, and this medium, my time and my energy are limited. This post is not pe... |
bf2ca470-5927-4ddc-b37b-7a3183660b91 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Optimizing crop planting with mixed integer linear programming in Stardew Valley
Abstract
========
TL;DR: plant your crops like this and you will make the most money possible
Motivation
==========
If you haven’t yet tried, consider escaping 2020’s cyberpunk hellsca... |
5d77f2a1-30cc-43ae-9bb8-5c28913b9738 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I'm holding a birthday fundraiser
EDIT: The fundraiser was successfully completed, raising the full $500 for worthwhile charities. Yay!
Today's my birthday! And per Peter Hurford's suggestion, I'm holding a birthday fundraiser to help raise money for MIRI, GiveDirectly, and Mercy for Animals. If you like my activity ... |
397c36d9-6a37-4440-86d8-bfc30cc59baa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Reviews of “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?”
(Edited 10/14/22 to add Lifland review. Edited 7/10/23 to add Levinstein review. Edited 10/18/23 to add superforecaster reviews.)
Open Philanthropy solicited reviews of my draft report “Is power-seeking AI an existential risk?” (Edit: arXiv version here) from vari... |
5912939c-6f2b-4d0f-a033-2c8bf37660bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We Should Try to Directly Measure the Value of Scientific Papers
(Epistemic Status: I have never published an academic paper or been involved in grantmaking for academic work, so my perspective on current practices is limited. Still, I think the basic idea I am proposing is clear and straightforward enough to overcome... |
15585a01-17b2-4c75-96f6-b9f783390abe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How good are our mouse models (psychology, biology, medicine, etc.), ignoring translation into humans, just in terms of understanding mice? (Same question for drosophila.)
I've been thinking about why some domains have reached more definite, mathematized, and law-like models than others, e.g. the hard sciences of phys... |
68288131-7ad9-4959-aee8-7036a766d06d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Looking for adversarial collaborators to test our Debate protocol
EDIT: We're also looking for people to become trained Honest debaters, which requires a greater time commitment (ideally >=5 hours per week for >= 2 months) but for which we're offering $30/hr. If you're interested in doing that, please fill out this fo... |
1cb29bf4-95a9-4a01-a4eb-f7cf873337ff | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Launching the Forecasting AI Progress Tournament
I'm excited to let you know that Metaculus is launching the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/), a large-scale forecasting tournament with $50,000 in prizes. Participation is open to all.
The tournament is intended t... |
aa7593c0-8edc-4b16-b561-6b90dd16a467 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Happiness Is Not A Coherent Concept
|
21d755de-97ea-452d-ad29-a40c8d9f883f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Self-Blackmail" and Alternatives
Ziz has been in the news lately. Instead of discussing that, I'll discuss an early blog post, "Self-Blackmail". This is a topic I also talked with Ziz about in person, although not a lot.
Let's start with a very normal thing people do: make New Year's resolutions. They might resolve ... |
128e3f5c-9d4b-4817-b740-48f53b52b833 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why There Is Hope For An Alignment Solution
Note: I originally wrote the first draft of this on 2022/04/11 intending to post this to Less Wrong in response to the List of Lethalities post, but wanted to edit it a bit to be more rigorous and ended up taking a very long time before getting around to it. I’m still not en... |
adccb7f5-f9de-4c2c-bd17-f904d2ddcd6a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | $500 Bounty Problem: Are (Approximately) Deterministic Natural Latents All You Need?
Our posts on natural latents have involved two distinct definitions, which we call "stochastic" and "deterministic" natural latents. We conjecture that, whenever there exists a stochastic natural latent (to within some approximation),... |
816f9f3a-c5c2-4b7c-a07f-854a535a6d10 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Beyond Rewards and Values: A Non-dualistic Approach to Universal Intelligence
*(This is my first post on Lesswrong, including some thoughts on topics I have read in this year. Please leave your comment on them. Thanks.)*
**Abstract**
Building an AI system that aligns with human values is believed to be a two-st... |
3dce2268-f948-4520-a920-a5069ba2bdd4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Applications for Deconfusing Goal-Directedness
Atonement for my sins towards deconfusion
=========================================
I have [argued](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/adKSWktLbxfihDANM/against-the-backward-approach-to-goal-directedness) that the deconfusion of goal-directedness should not follow what... |
a67909c6-397c-40c7-ba05-4383dff39fde | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How harmful are improvements in AI? + Poll
This post was written by Marius Hobbhahn and Tilman Räuker.
Disclaimer: We have previously posted this piece on the EA forum. We now post it here because LW allows for polls, and we have worked in additional feedback.
Over the last years, we have encountered stances on deve... |
a5743cb6-d2c4-4820-8f67-ceb1da926118 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Spaced repetition for teaching two-year olds how to read (Interview)
Update: this post now has another video.
This father has been using spaced repetition (Anki) to teach his children how to read several years earlier than average.
Michael Nielsen and Gwern[1] tweeted about the interesting case of a reddit user, u/c... |
af8516b1-4ce8-415d-bb40-72e545313ddb | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agisf | AGI Safety Fund | A template for Arxiv Style
††thanks: Citation:
Authors. Title. Pages…. DOI:000000/11111.
1 Introduction
---------------
Many of the remarkable advances of the past 5 years in deep learning have been driven by a continuous increase in the quantity of *training compute* used to develop cutting-edge models [kaplan202... |
86b61b79-aa0b-4d14-9034-a8cfc3fe4ea3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Bayeswatch 6.5: Therapy
"What do you mean I need therapy?" said Vi.
"Our records indicate you may have suffered psychological trauma on one of your recent missions," said Eliza.
"Which mission?" said Vi.
"You know," said Eliza. She leaned close to whisper, "Bangui."
"I can neither confirm nor deny whether I have e... |
b10ef43e-6a20-484c-9ddc-f473248db5e6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | My Predictions for 2018 (& a Template for Yours)
For the past year, I've been eagerly awaiting the start of 2018. This wasn't out of any dissatisfaction with 2017, or because of any specific events that I expected to happen today. No, I was excited for 2018 because it meant I got to grade my 2017 predictions and make ... |
970aaf9c-429d-4209-86ad-9febc2c25e0c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Linkpost] George Mack's Razors
I don't use Twitter/X, I only saw this because it was on https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky which I check every day (an example of a secure way to mitigate brain exposure to news feed algorithms).
The galaxy-brained word combinations here are at the standard of optimization I hold very hi... |
bff7d6ee-5d0d-4476-807a-115319b59f41 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Comment Replies for Chains, Bottlenecks and Optimization
Replies to comments on my Chains, Bottlenecks and Optimization:
abramdemski and Hypothesis Generation
> Following the venerated method of multiple working hypotheses, then, we are well-advised to come up with as many hypotheses as we can to explain the data.
... |
375e98ca-4f9b-4bf1-affe-888cff48ec97 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Law of Least Effort Contributes to the Conjunction Fallacy
Continuing the theme that the “Conjunction Fallacy” experimental results can be explained by social dynamics, let’s look at another social dynamic: the Law of Least Effort (LoLE).
(Previously: Can Social Dynamics Explain Conjunction Fallacy Experimental R... |
3208bdb0-a44e-435f-854c-32a5ce90f193 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Data collection for AI alignment - Career review
*This is a (slightly edited) cross-post of 80,000 Hours' newest career review, on* [*data collection for AI alignment*](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/alignment-data-expert/)*. Thanks to Beth Barnes, Leo Gao, Long Ouyang and Connor Leahy for helpful comments and... |
4d2be61b-8ec3-4e9f-9c8c-2f80469f8c77 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against Job Boards: Human Capital and the Legibility Trap
Human capital trades more like real estate than equities. While millions in S&P 500 stocks can exchange hands with a single click, hiring employees or finding life partners always requires a final offline, high-touch evaluation - much like inspecting a house b... |
0d1f0ae0-ce74-49ea-beae-3377959be266 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Dozen Ways to Get More Dakka
As the dictum goes, “If it helps but doesn’t solve your problem, perhaps you’re not using enough.” But I still find that I’m sometimes not using enough effort, not doing enough of what works, simply put, not using enough dakka. And if reading one post isn’t enough to get me to do somethi... |
9e2b052c-df40-48b6-bfe5-f0b5b9f72f12 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Six Specializations Makes You World-Class
> If you want an average, successful life, it doesn't take much planning. Just stay out of trouble, go to school, and apply for jobs you might like. But if you want something extraordinary, you have two rather: 1) Become the best at one specific thing. 2) become very good (top... |
b597f963-4202-45e5-82c9-427a67a6bc43 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | A survey of concrete risks derived from Artificial Intelligence
[Riesgos Catastróficos Globales](https://riesgoscatastroficosglobales.com/) has conducted a literature review and an expert elicitation exercise[[1]](#fnb5tfz2nj5s9) to categorize concrete risks associated with Artificial Intelligence (AI). This is part o... |
7509073f-2153-4f2c-897a-32558904b065 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | X-risk Mitigation Does Actually Require Longtermism
Introduction
Myself — and many others — have argued that longtermism is not needed to argue for x-risk mitigation. That all such actions can be adequately justified within a neartermist framework, and given the poor reception/large inferential distance/inaccessibili... |
2873c2cc-07f5-4926-a46f-59769fd12880 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Training Regime Day 1: What is applied rationality?
Introduction
I claim that this series of posts will be a decent training regime for applied rationality. Accordingly, I think that one of the first steps is to tell you what I even think applied rationality is. However, since "applied rationality" is a little hard to... |
86349507-0f76-4210-a953-966e12f84d14 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Use your rationality or it's useless
Infinite rationality is worthless if you never act. An omniscient entity which can never act has a net progress score of 0.
Likewise, an entity with totally random actions is going to fare poorly. Given that the possibility-space of state improving actions is much less than half, ... |
641b8723-1086-49cb-869b-f414cf045f64 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A speculation on Near and Far Modes
Katja's recent post on cryonics elicited this comment from Steven Kaas,
"If cryonics is super-far and altruism is seen as more important in far mode, why isn’t buying cryonics for others seen as especially praiseworthy? Your list of ways in which cryo is far-mode seems too much ... |
51e0737b-3551-4fcd-95e6-e3e5f0c1ecf8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Audio interview with Judea Pearl [link]
Where he discusses some of his career path and evolution of his thoughts about AI
http://www.stephenibaraki.com/audio/Judea_Pearl.mp3 |
8575fbeb-49bd-4ef0-863c-dd1bdbe7e9ef | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 5. The “long-term predictor”, and TD learning
(Last revised: July 2024. See changelog at the bottom.)
5.1 Post summary / Table of contents
Part of the “Intro to brain-like-AGI safety” post series.
In the previous post, I discussed the “short-term predictor”—a circuit which, thanks t... |
9681f81b-e813-47de-a884-e59f8863f9c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Gas Green?
The EU decided to declare gas along with nuclear to be green. It's easy to see why one might see nuclear energy as a green energy source, it's harder to see the case for gas.
As I previously pointed out, we currently have days in Germany where energy is free and companies can get paid to use up energy.... |
a77ee379-760b-4b75-92d8-0e8acf042d62 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Convergence Towards World-Models: A Gears-Level Model
1. Intuitions
One of the more solid results in agency theory is the generalized definition of power-seeking. Power-seeking is the tendency of agents to move towards states with the potential to achieve the best average outcome across some distribution of reward fun... |
dab80088-51bc-4ba4-b7cc-0f2279d29110 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/agentmodels | Tutorial: Modeling Agents with Probabilistic Programs | Modeling Agents with Probabilistic Programs
---
layout: chapter
title: Efficient inference
description: Difficulty of inference, in particular for POMDPs and inverse planning. Outline of inference strategies.
status: stub
is_section: true
hidden: true
---
|
27cb50ce-9a78-47a3-81ac-48a0f2a9cfa8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Problems Involving Abstraction?
I'm working on a post of examples for how to formulate problems involving abstraction (using the abstraction formulation here). This isn't going to solve problems, just show how to set them up mathematically.
To that end, I'd like to hear particular problems people are interested in wh... |
a43da48a-c5d7-4593-a09c-869c42b010e1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | AI Governance & Strategy: Priorities, talent gaps, & opportunities
Over the last few weeks, I’ve had 1:1s with several AI governance professionals to develop better models of the current AI governance & strategy landscape. Some topics that regularly came up include:
* What are the most important/neglected areas in AI... |
524066d8-278a-4d1c-a080-e21e71d1a876 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Green goo is plausible
TLDR:If an AI kills all the humans how does it power the datacenters/replace the human economy? Green Goo. (IE:bioengineering)
* Natural biotech is amazing
* Evolution is dumb and slow
* Very simple strategies (EG:vine that climbs a tree and squeezes) are "innovative" and work well in nature... |
746a2be7-750a-4ae9-9b65-8da0d602a2c4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Fair for all - DeepMind: The Podcast (S2, Ep8)
[Music]
this is deepmind the podcast
i'm hannah fry a mathematics professor
and your trusty guide to the rapidly
evolving field of artificial
intelligence
so far in this series i've spoken to
people who are using ai to advance
scientific discovery you have techniques
that... |
8fdf3c28-d4cd-4b70-b559-0b723118c97b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Classifying specification problems as variants of Goodhart's Law
There are a few different classifications of safety problems, including the Specification, Robustness and Assurance (SRA) taxonomy and the Goodhart's Law taxonomy. In SRA, the specification category is about defining the purpose of the system, i.e. speci... |
67c5d901-8d85-4b85-b05e-6cfbc314f9d3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Existential Risk from Power-Seeking AI
Existential Risk from Power-Seeking AI
Joe Carlsmith
March 2023
(Forthcoming in "Essays on Longtermism," from Oxford University Press, edited
by Jacob Barrett, Hilary Greaves, and David Thorstad. This is a shortened version
of my 2021 report, “Is power-seeking AI an existential r... |
f1b0cbd1-8ddd-4477-8ed8-73f58aea22d8 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Prosaic misalignment from the Solomonoff Predictor
**Note: Skip to "Moral of Story" for the conclusion.**
*Status: Thinking out loud. Really unsure about any of this, but it might be important.*
When I read [Paul Christiano's post](https://ordinaryideas.wordpress.com/2016/11/30/what-does-the-universal-prior-actually... |
02dce4d8-f864-4ec6-9104-4be7d9401973 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Unfriendly Superintelligence next door
Markets are powerful decentralized optimization engines - it is known. Liberals see the free market as a kind of optimizer run amuck, a dangerous superintelligence with simple non-human values that must be checked and constrained by the government - the friendly SI. Conserv... |
6d82d525-9005-4c48-abd8-8184ad5a5b0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Scaling Laws and Likely Limits to AI
A number of arguments about AI capabilities have deep roots in different expectations about how scaling can work, and historical analogues are often raised. This is true on both sides of the debate, with AI Snake Oil noting the end of scaling for processors and aircraft speeds, an ... |
ef3e43b2-f2e8-4ebf-afe9-fba42adcce6c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | When does something stop being a “self-consistent idea” and become scientific fact?
Topic: When does something stop being a “useful theory” and become something we can believe?
[Preface - Hi! This is essentially my first time posting here. If I did something wrong, let me know. I've read about 1/3-1/2 of the major s... |
dc95beff-18ba-4578-bc3e-db2a04874205 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Too Soon for Doom Gloom?
Came across this paper posted in gr-qc (General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology) of all places. Abstract:
The observation that we are among the first 10^11 or so humans reduces the prior probability that we find ourselves in a species whose total lifetime number of individuals is much... |
38f6f6c8-d7c6-4a2b-aba7-10f0f6a5fcc2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dave Kasten's AGI-by-2027 vignette
(Epistemic status: Very loosely held and generated in a 90-minute workshop led by @Daniel Kokotajlo, @Thomas Larsen, @elifland, and Jonas Vollmer at The Curve Conference; explores how it might happen, if it happens soon. I expect there to be at least one "duh, that makes no sense" ... |
2c5b78ed-0b4f-4574-a7eb-0bc33899656a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Vancouver Metaethics and Really Trying
Discussion article for the meetup : Vancouver Metaethics and Really Trying
WHEN: 05 January 2013 01:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 2505 W broadway vancouver bc
We are going to talk about the metaethics sequence and this awesome essay by gwern.
13:00 on Saturday at Benny's Bag... |
e4a037e3-af24-49aa-8d68-00447fe24618 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | The Wisdom of Nature: An Evolutionary Heuristic for Human Enhancement
18
T h eW i s d o mo fN a t u r e :
An Evolutionary Heuristicfor Human Enhancement
Nick Bostrom and Anders Sandberg∗
Abstract
Human beings are a marvel of evolved complexity. Such systems can
be difficult to enhance. When we manipulate complex evolve... |
c9b105bf-3d74-4a8a-8e94-de01d82c1c02 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to deal with probabilities in the presence of clones?
You find yourself in a room. You know there are only two possible ways you could have gotten into the room, and just a moment earlier you considered them both equally likely:
A: I make 8 identical copies of you and put them in totally identical rooms. A minut... |
47f57b0b-e16d-48d6-9225-fe087978ac85 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Incomprehensibility Bluff
I. Outlining the Bluff
If you are in a conversation with another person, and you cannot understand what they are saying, various possibilities present themselves; two of which are as follows:
1. They are much more intelligent or knowledgeable than you. So much more intelligent or knowle... |
b7ae5588-e9e0-405f-b94d-aaeb0f778952 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | AI Benefits Post 3: Direct and Indirect Approaches to AI Benefits
This is a post in a series on "AI Benefits." It is cross-posted from my [personal blog](https://cullenokeefe.com/blog/ai-benefits-3). For other entries in this series, navigate to the [AI Benefits Blog Series Index page](https://www.cullenokeefe.com/ai-... |
b48d38df-e392-4bb5-b896-7c072a489e15 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Do humans derive values from fictitious imputed coherence?
*[Metadata: crossposted from <https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2022/11/do-humans-derive-values-from-fictitious.html>. First completed November 1, 2022. This essay is more like research notes than exposition, so context may be missing, the use of terms may change ac... |
096bbe79-92b5-4e98-a6d9-94fbaa36a8aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Replace Stereotypes With Experiences
[A small, short reminder for a substitution mistake our (read: my) brain(s) sometime(s) make.]
Related to: Learning from Past Experiences
Here’s something that sometimes happens to me:
Someone will ask me what flavor of ice cream I want. I look at the choices, and I see vanilla,... |
4c1c2d8b-15bb-412d-9424-0e566924461b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Levels of Thought: from Points to Fields
Been trying to put together a framework for analyzing the way people think, process, approach, and prioritize information; for some time now. The same few patterns seem to come up rather consistently. The following is an attempt to systematize them a little bit.
To be clear, a... |
76d86ee7-2a4d-4595-a067-54bf218c018b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Semantic Stopsigns
And the child asked:
Q: Where did this rock come from?
A: I chipped it off the big boulder, at the center of the village.
Q: Where did the boulder come from?
A: It probably rolled off the huge mountain that towers over our village.
Q: Where did the mountain come from?
A: The same place as all ... |
e726bc56-ea45-44ae-b3ff-3c256972d55c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Goodhart Taxonomy
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
Goodhart’s Law states that "any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes." However, this is not a single phenomenon. I propose ... |
305c92c1-ecaf-4c5b-876e-ad7060ceaa3e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Linkpost: My Fires Part 8 (Deck Guide to Jeskai Cavaliers) posted at CoolStuffInc.com
You can find it here.
Happy to respond to comments there or on my personal blog. I’m hoping this is the beginning of a great relationship with them. They’ve been my go-to for board games for a while. |
db496988-e024-44ea-a9c9-b5644d1bf5fa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | PCAST Working Group on Generative AI Invites Public Input
Terrence Tao and Laura Greene are co-chairing (with Laura Greene) a working group studying the impacts of generative artificial intelligence technology (which includes popular text-based large language models such as ChatGPT or diffusion model image generators ... |
67e40c83-d5d3-4ad8-9102-2ccae94cdd55 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Ethan Perez - Making AI safe through debate
hey everyone jeremy here welcome back to
the tour of the data science podcast
today's episode is about one of the
biggest
outstanding open questions in a.i period
and that is the question of whether
we'll be able to get to
superhuman levels of intelligence using
current ai s... |
3e2a70c4-bae5-4487-850e-5657908af9ae | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Update on Kim Suozzi (cancer patient in want of cryonics)
Kim Suozzi was a neuroscience student with brain cancer who wanted to be cryonically preserved but lacked the funds. She appealed to reddit and a foundation was set up, called the Society for Venturism. Enough money was raised, and when she died on the January... |
65e9eb55-974c-4761-a3a8-89dec0427865 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Can HCH epistemically dominate Ramanujan?
[Srinivasa Ramanujan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Srinivasa_Ramanujan) is an Indian mathematician who is famously known for solving math problems with sudden and inexplicable flashes of insight. From his Wikipedia page:
> Imagine that you are on a street with houses marked... |
e64afad5-703a-48f9-8286-ef4f4535edfa | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The Evil AI Overlord List
Top ten tips for an AI bent on destroying humanity:
1. Humanoid robots? Really?
2. Humans have proven very adept at controlling and killing other humans - surveillance drones, bio-warfare, nuclear weapons, unmanned drones, bombs, mines, chemicals. Try and be at least as competent as that.
3... |
b9479c68-cac5-4cad-94d3-c4f1d56d28c0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rebutting Every Objection To Giving To The Shrimp Welfare Project
Crosspost of this on my blog.
I recently wrote an article making the case for giving to shrimp welfare. Lots of people were convinced to give (enough to help around half a billion shrimp avoid a painful death), but because the idea sounds silly, many... |
6307b191-1c78-4fab-b54d-1c0b868d2e0f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | VIDEO: The Problem With Anecdotes
Inspired by some of the comments in Back To The Basics I thought it might be interesting to see whether and how video embedding works in the discussion area. The experiment is intended to function technically to see if this is possible, but also socially to see if the reaction is goo... |
600b638f-2d4c-4319-9726-f315bfaedc1c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sunzi's《Methods of War》- War
This is a translation of Chapter 2 of The Art of War by Sunzi. No English sources were used.
----------------------------------------
> 孙子曰：凡用兵之法，驰车千驷，革车千乘，带甲十万，千里馈粮，内外之费，宾客之用，胶漆之材，车甲之奉，日费千金，然后十万之师举矣。
The ordinary methods of war demand:
* 1,000 teams of 4 horses each,
* 1,000 wagons,... |
c7342c54-ed9b-43ec-99b6-9e3b8ecb4da5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] John Baez Interview with astrophysicist Gregory Benford
The content of John Baez's This Week's Finds: Week 310:
Includes
* Discussion of global warming and geoengineering.
* A reference to a paper by David Wolpert and Gregory Benford on Newcomb's paradox
Note: The upcoming This Week's Finds: Week 311 is a... |
86c9ffa8-fd55-4509-b207-860d4b7553e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The housing crisis, explained using game theory
Crossposted from the blog The Hazy Path to which I contribute (thehazypath.substack.com).
In this article: the hidden effects of game theory, the power of incentives, and how to solve a problem that affects us all.
As I read countless headlines about Britain’s escalati... |
e8fc24c2-9d74-4eb7-90a0-6131e357677b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Three pillars for avoiding AGI catastrophe: Technical alignment, deployment decisions, and coordination
Generated by MidjourneyCross-posted to the EA Forum: [Three pillars for avoiding AGI catastrophe](htt... |
d93252aa-4ce3-407f-85c1-f9307b5146c5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Red Teaming Language Models to Reduce Harms: Methods, Scaling Behaviors, and Lessons Learned
1 Introduction
---------------
Large language models exhibit a wide range of harmful behaviors such as reinforcing social biases (e.g., Sap et al. ([2020](#bib.bib49 "Social Bias Frames: Reasoning about Social and Power Imp... |
dc8d1dc4-27fa-483e-be60-a4e2e9b03558 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Perhaps the first detailed plan to program a general moral code into a particular model of AGI
Wallach, Franklin, & Allen, "A Conceptual and Computational Model of Moral Decision Making in Human and Artificial Agents."
Abstract:
> Recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in general, comprehensive models of ... |
33dc1646-bf9e-4434-93fd-5fda6c7fb112 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Monkeypox Post #2
Enough distinct things happened this week in Monkeypox that it made sense to split off the information on it into a distinct post. This is probably slightly over the threshold required for doing that.
Executive Summary
WHO declares Monkeypox a public health emergency of international concern.
One ... |
93c0ba7c-26ca-4425-9058-afe76c666573 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [AN #120]: Tracing the intellectual roots of AI and AI alignment
Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through **[this spread... |
02dfd0aa-5793-4d57-a5f1-7f397d14c990 | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post660
Burns et al at OpenAI released a paper studying various techniques for fine-tuning strong models on downstream tasks using labels produced by weak models. They call this problem “weak-to-strong generalization”, abbreviated W2SG. Earlier this year, we published a paper, Benchmarks for Detecting Measurement ... |
29c12612-fa5f-493f-bee0-c0b06430251e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What I Learned About Meetup Organization
Related: How to Run a Successful LW Meetup
(posted to lw-organizers and Lesswrong discussion)
I want more discussion of meetup organization tactics, failures, successes, and ideas. We are not going to build an awesome network of rationality dojos without sharing momentum with... |
eb4063b6-10fb-4fb8-83eb-4695e6a6166c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | 1h-volunteers needed for a small AI Safety-related research project
Hi everyone!
I'm currently doing an AI Safety internship where we're carrying out a research study about "multimodal models: usefulness and safety". In this project, we want to analyse how people can directly use language models (and multimodal mod... |
11dc2350-54f8-44ac-80eb-1a63b74a0eee | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | khan Academy - Rationality series?
Does the LW community think it might be a good idea to approach Khan Academy about including a series on Rationality, based on some of the LW sequences?
Khan Academy already has a great reputation as a centre for learning, and has large amounts of traffic going through it. Perhaps w... |
fcc16af0-10e3-419d-b1ed-262182637b03 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Cooperative AI: machines must learn to find common ground
\* [Twitter](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?text=Cooperative+AI%3A+machines+must+learn+to+find+common+ground&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Farticles%2Fd41586-021-01170-0)
\* [Facebook](http://www.facebook.com/sharer.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Far... |
3683d007-eec2-4aa5-b942-771db66a7499 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | History of LessWrong: Some Data Graphics
Some graphs showing posting activity on LessWrong through the years.
NOTE: If you’re reading this post on GreaterWrong, you can click on the images to enlarge, zoom in, and click through them all as a slideshow.
Comments per post:
The same thing, on a log scale:
Posts p... |
132da505-87a8-4bf3-b8d3-b96a106ca655 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Contestable Black Boxes
1 Introduction
---------------
Searching for efficiency and cheaper solutions, governments and organisations are increasingly investing in automated solutions for a variety of decisions and activities, ranging from deciding on benefit claims to assessing the risk of recidivism in felons.
Wit... |
83485340-2db4-4926-b50d-148df1682f0f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | A proposed method for forecasting transformative AI
In 2021, I [proposed](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tepqESMuRmyhtmDS7/forecasting-progress-in-language-models) measuring progress in the perplexity of language models and extrapolating past results to determine when language models were expected to reach roughly "h... |
5e593969-1e7c-4868-9c77-cb254236bbbe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How To Be More Confident... That You're Wrong
One of the main Eliezer Sequences, consisting of dozens of posts, is How To Actually Change Your Mind. Looking at all those posts, one gets the feeling that changing one’s mind must be Really Hard. But maybe it doesn't have to be that hard. I think it would much easier to ... |
985dbdcf-d177-4a9e-aa7d-c96b3c08ad2c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Aldix and the Book of Life
The following is a fable on the dangers of measures becoming targets, originally posted to my blog in Medium. All illustrations are AI-generated, but none of the text is.
When on a crisp spring night you look at a night sky, you can see countless stars, each with their own planetary systems... |
e3aa28ac-e65b-4055-a48d-7b0c99697683 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Help ARC evaluate capabilities of current language models (still need people)
\*\*Still looking for people as of Sep 9th 2022\*\*
I (Beth) am looking for 3-10 new contractors to work with me and my existing team of 3-4 contractors/interns on probing model capabilities to evaluate how close models are to being able to... |
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