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e66447d0-86de-4a27-b45e-d0121602a25b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wisdom of the crowds?
According to an aggregate of forecasts on metaculus, the probability of bitcoin going above 100k within the next 5 years is 60%.
Under which conditions is it rational to have my probability for some event match the (i) median of a large group of estimates (e.g. from metaculus)
or (ii) the averag... |
2fee87f1-4171-44b2-9bf1-db0104bba1df | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Heading Toward Morality
Today's post, Heading Toward Morality was originally published on 20 June 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> A description of the last several months of sequence posts, that identifies the topic that Eliezer actually wants to explain: morality.
Discuss the post here (... |
e4be322e-3dc0-4695-b1c2-d47fac8bce23 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Learning desiderata
A putative new idea for AI control; index here.
In a previous post, I argued that Conservation of expected ethics isn't enough. Reflecting on that, I think the learning problem can be decomposed into three aspects:
#. The desire to learn. #. Unbiased learning (the agent doesn't try to influence t... |
d2d41403-5190-4a7f-b685-2711bbf408f2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | introduction to cancer vaccines
cancer neoantigens
For cells to become cancerous, they must have mutations that cause uncontrolled replication and mutations that prevent that uncontrolled replication from causing apoptosis. Because cancer requires several mutations, it often begins with damage to mutation-preventing m... |
2159f712-1d94-4fb2-acc2-db518957e3e2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Towards Guaranteed Safe AI: A Framework for Ensuring Robust and Reliable AI Systems
Authors: David "davidad" Dalrymple, Joar Skalse, Yoshua Bengio, Stuart Russell, Max Tegmark, Sanjit Seshia, Steve Omohundro, Christian Szegedy, Ben Goldhaber, Nora Ammann, Alessandro Abate, Joe Halpern, Clark Barrett, Ding Zhao, Tan Zh... |
b779f646-a692-43a6-b0ed-b2b5bbc902a9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Deceptive Alignment is <1% Likely by Default
Thanks to Wil Perkins, Grant Fleming, Thomas Larsen, Declan Nishiyama, and Frank McBride for feedback on this post. Thanks also to Paul Christiano, Daniel Kokotajlo, and Aaron Scher for comments on the original post that helped clarify the argument. Any mistakes are my own.... |
90308a34-8024-4a12-b97a-9c6c953e048b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Marriage, the Giving What We Can Pledge, and the damage caused by vague public commitments
I believe honesty is very important. I think most people agree that honesty is like, pretty important, but I think it’s a lot more important than that. I basically think that people will be dishonest in ways that hurt them and o... |
aa9a1ad4-5a9f-46da-8e5b-341816988adf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Book Analysis: New Thrawn Trilogy
[Spoiler note: I have used only examples from relatively early on in the new Thrawn Trilogy and ones which I believe won’t spoil your enjoyment of the story; however, if you’d like to go in with absolutely no knowledge, this will tell you some things about the trilogy.]
I’ve recently... |
435371d0-c1d0-436d-ab33-8462b529929f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | ReMixMatch: Semi-Supervised Learning with Distribution Alignment and Augmentation Anchoring
1 Introduction
---------------
Semi-supervised learning (SSL) provides a means of leveraging unlabeled data to improve a model’s performance when only limited labeled data is available.
This can enable the use of large, powe... |
d629b7c1-ee58-4034-96c1-a682df904fd0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Brussels meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Brussels meetup
WHEN: 13 October 2012 01:00:00PM (+0200)
WHERE: Rue des Alexiens 55 1000 Bruxelles
We are once again meeting at 'la fleur en papier doré' close to the Brussels Central station. If you feel like an intelligent discussion and are in the neig... |
9a2bdfc5-0d7f-4eb0-b559-d56f2f5b720a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why do the Sequences say that "Löb's Theorem shows that a mathematical system cannot assert its own soundness without becoming inconsistent."?
I am looking for some understanding into why this claim is made.
As far as I can tell, Löb's Theorem does not directly make such an assertion.
Reading the Cartoon's Guide t... |
743b5055-413a-44b4-9273-63baf1431555 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | 200 COP in MI: Interpreting Algorithmic Problems
*This is the fourth post in a sequence called 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability.*[*Start here*](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/LbrPTJ4fmABEdEnLf/200-concrete-open-problems-in-mechanistic-interpretability)*, then read in any order. If you w... |
5f6dfee5-c47b-4f82-9e6f-8086bf95d1f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Destroying the fabric of the universe as an instrumental goal.
Perhaps this is a well examined idea, but i didn't find anything when searching.
The argument is simple. If the AI wants to avoid the world being in a certain state, destroying everything reduces the likelihood of that state to occur to zero. Otherwise, ... |
3f6935d0-0334-4be2-aa37-26f465b34119 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Reflective Bayesianism
I've argued in [several](https://www.lesswrong.com/s/Rm6oQRJJmhGCcLvxh) [places](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xJyY5QkQvNJpZLJRo/radical-probabilism-1) that traditional Bayesian reasoning is unable to properly handle embeddedness, logical uncertainty, and related issues.
However, in the light... |
645c8780-94a3-4dbf-8f51-7320cd5029bd | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Follow-up to: Announcing the Quantified Health Prize
I am happy to announce that Scott Alexander, better known on Less Wrong as Yvain, has won the first Quantified Health Prize, and Kevin Fischer has been awarded second place. There were exactly five entries, so the remaining prizes will go to Steven Kaas, Kevin Keith... |
e9fc5a95-8e9b-41cc-a7a7-bd09d7961e5e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Real Life Sort by Controversial
Foreword
If you haven't already read the short story by Scott Alexander "Sort by Controversial", this post wont make as much sense. Head over there to read the story and then read on...
Part of having access to AI tools is having a project or an idea to use them on. You can ask ChatG... |
bf07ebd5-9aa1-4f30-bf07-46ce7fdd19e5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Three more ways identity can be a curse
The Buddhists believe that one of the three keys to attaining true happiness is dissolving the illusion of the self. (The other two are dissolving the illusion of permanence, and ceasing the desire that leads to suffering.) I'm not really sure exactly what it means to say "the s... |
91133969-d38e-47e3-adb2-cfa569bfc6b0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What does pulling the fire alarm look like?
I am not quite ready to pull my own personal fire alarm. The word 'quite' is doing a lot of lifting in that sentence. Because a fire is starting to feel like a real possibility in my future, I've begun to think about what pulling the fire alarm would actually mean. What woul... |
191c2da0-9ef8-4309-9311-1521f8d28a9e | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post236
The post makes the suggestion in the title: hopefully, it's second kind of obvious, if you take Character layer of models seriously. [1] Often, the problem of aligning AIs is understood as an instance of a broader Principal-Agent problem . If you take this frame seriously, what seems to be happening is som... |
1fdd8f5e-690b-4623-8e9f-4bf029e22664 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | Understanding values – from the perspective of personal support technology (Myrthe Tielman)
all right so welcome everyone to today's
high-tech Agora meeting I assume
everyone could hear me well right this
is our last Agora meeting for before the
summer break so the next time we will do
the meetings we might as well do... |
f7b27bcd-e217-4294-a3f2-f77b69d51fac | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Prediction Pyramid: Why Fundamental Work is Needed for Prediction Work
Epistemic state: I feel like this post makes fairly intuitive claims, but I have uncertainty on many of the specifics.
In data science, it is a common mistake for organizations to focus on specific exciting parts like machine learning and data... |
45e8e324-098a-418b-b0e6-e361e69d21b6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The human problem
You've fiddled with your physics constants until you got them just right, pushed matter into just the right initial configuration, given all the galaxies a good spin, and tended them carefully for a few billion years. Finally, one of the creatures on one of those planets in one of those galaxies loo... |
dabdf3d7-da11-4c43-a3c1-1001c3edf783 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : West LA—Honor and Glory
Discussion article for the meetup : West LA—Honor and Glory
WHEN: 30 April 2014 06:59:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 11066 Santa Monica Blvd, Los Angeles, CA
How to Find Us: Go into this Del Taco. I will bring a Rubik's Cube. The presence of a Rubik's Cube will be strong Bayesian evidence of t... |
d57a72d0-a771-46c1-9c1d-f2e70949e1b2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Vancouver Last call for 2012
Discussion article for the meetup : Vancouver Last call for 2012
WHEN: 16 December 2012 01:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 2150 macdonald st
With crazy tree-killing, litany-chanting, fat-red-man worshiping solstice/Christmas coming up, this may be the last meetup in Vancouver for 2012.
... |
b6717b10-5bc8-4be0-9120-0854803b506f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Analysing a 2036 Takeover Scenario
TL;DR
This post basically digs through Holden Karnofsky's ‘AI Could Defeat All of Us Combined’ (AIDC) post and tries to work through some of the claims there, in light of other work by Ajeya Cotra and Richard Ngo. It originally was a response to the latter's suggestion that someone... |
ee267aac-dac2-4516-b0c8-e2894f667971 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Utility need not be bounded
A few months ago I disagreed with Sniffnoy about whether the theorem regarding Savage's axioms for probability and utility, that utility must be bounded, is a good reason for believing that utility must be bounded. Sniffnoy said yes, because it follows from the axioms, I said no, therefore ... |
8137be18-b7ae-4cab-a799-df50c0340f10 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Two-Party Swindle
The Robbers Cave Experiment had as its subject 22 twelve-year-old boys, selected from 22 different schools in Oklahoma City, all doing well in school, all from stable middle-class Protestant families. In short, the boys were as similar to each other as the experimenters could arrange, though non... |
b81e72cf-046b-4a5f-87f4-cc360cffb0dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Using (Uninterpretable) LLMs to Generate Interpretable AI Code
(This post is a bit of a thought dump, but I hope it could be an interesting prompt to think about.)
For some types of problems, we can trust a proposed solution without trusting the method that generated the solution. For example, a mathematical proof ca... |
89cce32a-cbf3-4ee6-ba08-1ff58b3602e8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | London Meetup 05-Jun-2011 - very rough minutes
This was posted to the London LessWrong mailing list, but I am crossposting here, as per David Gerard's suggestion, in case anyone else finds this interesting.
These notes are from my perspective, so things will be missing (as some are added).
So here's my notes:
Bitcoi... |
1cebb39d-b020-44e6-a212-a652785cc672 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the Meta and DeepMind Safety Frameworks
This week we got a revision of DeepMind’s safety framework, and the first version of Meta’s framework. This post covers both of them.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Meta’s RSP (Frontier AI Framework).
2. DeepMind Updates its Frontier Safety Framework.
3. What About Risk Governance... |
5733f301-754c-4ce4-93d4-22f390606f47 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | List of things I think are worth reading (last updated 3/1/2021)
For personal reference, I'm going to keep track of things I read which I think are worth reading. By "worth reading" I specifically mean it scores high on this metric:
(insight gained)(time needed to absorb)⋅log(current popularity)
Each entry will have... |
c13897fd-1566-4da4-855e-97ad09acb7dc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The case for a negative alignment tax
TL;DR:
Alignment researchers have historically predicted that building safe advanced AI would necessarily incur a significant alignment tax compared to an equally capable but unaligned counterfactual AI.
We put forward a case here that this prediction looks increasingly unlikely... |
14a0edfe-91df-4816-8297-4705ead5d792 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Have your timelines changed as a result of ChatGPT?
ChatGPT has been receiving a *lot* of attention on the internet recently.
You can try it [here](https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt/). |
781396a9-c9bd-46ea-9987-592c1d77fab7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dangers of steelmanning / principle of charity
As far as I can tell, most people around these parts consider the principle of charity and its super saiyan form, steelmanning, to be Very Good Rationalist Virtues. I basically agree and I in fact operate under these principles more or less automatically now. HOWEVER, no ... |
60ee3464-e839-4a62-93c7-825176c3edf9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Could Simulating an AGI Taking Over the World Actually Lead to a LLM Taking Over the World?
As you know, large language models can be understood as simulators or more simply as models predicting what token would plausibly appear next after a first sequence of token.
As a consequence, when you ask a LLM to simulate ... |
cdcad43a-e938-4175-a500-a4cf2304d98b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Bangalore Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Bangalore Meetup
WHEN: 22 November 2014 04:10:51PM (+0530)
WHERE: cafe coffee day, old airport road ,Bengaluru
I've registered and created a meetup.com account and a group there. For the first meetup am thinking of Nov.14. (Friday evening). If you would ... |
d15611ff-2a57-45fc-97ea-aa21cc8bfee6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Meetup - April - build your community
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Meetup - April - build your community
WHEN: 22 April 2015 06:30:00PM (+1000)
WHERE: 565 George Street, Sydney, Australia 2000
Regular location - City of Sydney RSL The restaurant on Level 2
Regular time (starting about... |
d8715d75-1ca6-4b8c-b46f-dab6e3c5e851 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On the Openness personality trait & 'rationality'
Evolutionary psychologist Geoffrey Miller recently published Spent: Sex, Evolution, and Consumer Behavior, a book on signaling, psychology, and consumerism. It's very up LW's alley - it reads almost as if Robin Hanson had written a book. (Actually, Hanson has never pub... |
b0496ea4-0677-481a-ac81-8ce4708a6c12 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | The Open Agency Model
*Notes on AI for complex, consequential problems*
-------------------------------------------------
Eric Drexler
Centre for the Governance of AI
University of Oxford
Introduction
------------
This document argues for “open agencies” — not opaque, unitary agents — as the appropriate model f... |
d1e25723-a935-4c15-9012-22ec4d89b869 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Applying reinforcement learning theory to reduce felt temporal distance
([cross-posted from my blog](http://kajsotala.fi/2014/01/applying-reinforcement-learning-theory-to-reduce-felt-temporal-distance/))
It is a [basic principle of reinforcement learning](http://webdocs.cs.ualberta.ca/~sutton/book/ebook/node9.html) ... |
b0b76b60-7a0e-4f35-aace-cc1e6b9a269e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Discovering Language Model Behaviors with Model-Written Evaluations
“Discovering Language Model Behaviors with Model-Written Evaluations” is a new Anthropic paper by Ethan Perez et al. that I (Evan Hubinger) also collaborated on. I think the results in this paper are quite interesting in terms of what they demonstrate... |
9acb246b-d259-42ba-89d8-546985917ce6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Unity of Doctrine vs Unity of Method in Philosophy
Philosophers typically seem to prefer unity of doctrine over unity of method. This is particularly evident within philosophical subdisciplines. In metaethics, for example, mixed views such as "expressivism is true for social group X/domain P of moral discourse, error ... |
aa917eef-29b9-4aeb-ab3b-61c57726faad | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Two Procedures for Compiling Influence Diagrams
Two Procedures for Compiling Influence Diagrams 335
Two Procedures for Compiling Influence Diagrams
Paul E. Lehner.
Systems Engineering Dept.
George Mason University
Fairfax, VA 22030
ABSTRACT
Two algorithms are presented for "compiling"
influence diagrams into a... |
77f89feb-8622-413d-af99-a1adcd3853ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Russian x-risks newsletter #2, fall 2019
Russia could be seen as an x-risks wonderland, with exploding nuclear facilities and bioweapons storage sites, doomsday weapons, frequent asteroid impacts, Siberian volcanic traps, Arctic methane bomb, military AI programs, and crazy scientists wanting to drill to the Earth’s c... |
0bc7268c-b356-47d3-9d12-7606df440f33 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Direct Preference Optimization in One Minute
The Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) paper promises a more simple and efficient alternative to proximal policy optimization that is able to void the reward modeling phase, and thus optimize directly for the preferences expressed in preference data. This is achieved thro... |
66249e13-669c-4e49-9733-9cdcd077864c | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Preventing an AI-related catastrophe - Problem profile
We (80,000 Hours) have just released our longest and most in-depth problem profile — on reducing existential risks from AI.
You can read the profile [here](https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/artificial-intelligence).
The rest of this post gives some backgro... |
c31cb0da-0358-423c-8653-36cdc3b76a0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Durham/RTLW Discussion Meetup: Cognitive Load Followup
Discussion article for the meetup : Durham/RTLW Discussion Meetup: Cognitive Load Followup
WHEN: 30 May 2014 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 420 W Geer St., Durham NC 27701
We'll start with followup on last meetup's discussion of cognitive load. As time an... |
b44ac66f-ed50-47f1-a559-0eceed0648e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Self Supervised Learning (SSL)
Self Supervised Learning (SSL)
"Unlocking Powerful Representations: The Frontier of Self-Supervised Learning"
JASKARAN SINGH
AUG 9, 2023
Share
With all that’s been happening in the AI/ML industry for the past few weeks, it is important we address the elephant in the room.
The Ide... |
62d3e5d2-8bda-4dec-8544-4c253f60f202 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Five Stages of Idolatry
We all have heroes or idols, people we look up to and turn to, in one form or another, for guidance or wisdom. Over the years, I've noticed that my feelings towards those I've idolized tend to follow a predictable pattern. The following is the extraction of this pattern.
Stage 1: Exposure - yo... |
46bb896d-0234-41e0-8468-3128dbc6ee70 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | When discussing AI doom barriers propose specific plausible scenarios
TLDR:When addressing "How would an AI do X" questions, prefer simple existence proofs involving things humans can currently do rather than "magic" seeming things like nanotechnology or the fully general "AI will just be smart enough to figure it out... |
f091d40f-2f3f-4ed2-b135-9fdf74573e47 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Useful Does Not Mean Secure
*Brief summary of what I'm trying to do with this post:*
1. *Contrast a “Usefulness” focused approach to building AI with a “Security” focused approach, and try to give an account of where security problems come from in AI.*
2. *Show how marginal transparency improvements don’t necessarily... |
f5df5ed0-cb9a-4c14-8a8c-95477fd17e47 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is friendly AI "trivial" if the AI cannot rewire human values?
I put "trivial" in quotes because there are obviously some exceptionally large technical achievements that would still need to occur to get here, but suppose we had an AI with a utilitarian utility function of maximizing subjective human well-being (meanin... |
29a07851-4391-4b0a-9fed-421ae87bbba0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Each reference class has its own end
It is often claimed that the Self-Sampling assumption (SSA) is problematic, in particular, because we don’t know which reference class is a correct one. Therefore, the notorious Doomsday argument is weak. Here I will try to show that it is less a problem than seems.
Central claim:... |
dcd14d3a-c5ef-4774-be07-eec6bf6ea5aa | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Lsusr's Rationality Dojo
> Why aren’t there dojos that teach rationality?
>
> ―The Martial Art of Rationality by Eliezer Yudkowsky
For the last 6 months, I've been running a dojo that teaches rationality.
Why
I was at an ACX meetup and met an acolyte who grew up in an evangelical Christian community. He had recent... |
b5ab2261-3c90-47f2-b7d1-14b34999ff42 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Adequacy as Levels of Play
Adequacy as Levels of Play
One method that I find very useful for evaluating adequacy concerns is "level of play". If you look at different games or different leagues of the same game, it's pretty apparent that the "level of play" - the amount of athleticism, effort, skill, planning, strateg... |
7df4ab47-194d-4476-88e7-04c09875c6af | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Interview with zlzai
\*\*Interview with zlzai, on 3/18/22\*\*
\[Note: Th interviewee\'s Zoom connection was very bad since they were calling in from an Uber, so there\'s a lot of missing content (and \"I lost you\...\" parts of the conversation that have been removed for clarity).\]
\*\*0:00:02.5 Vael:\*\* Cool. All... |
2ea8dd58-d3d4-474b-b014-d84a0a51804d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI safety in the age of neural networks and Stanislaw Lem 1959 prediction
Tl;DR: Neural networks will result in slow takeoff and arm race between two AIs. It has some good and bad consequences to the problem of AI safety. Hard takeoff may happen after it anyway.
Summary: Neural networks based AI can be built; it will... |
4b529b1e-2e5d-4f01-bdbf-89a1be5b43d8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Anyone have experience with metabolic network modelling that would be willing to help me out?
In 2019 I had Megavitamin-B6 syndrome. I'm curious about the most common situation where people get it (chronic supplementation vs. acute overdose), and I have a hypothesis about how that may come about. Ideally, I'd like to ... |
4729e5a2-792b-4000-adf5-564fe9121668 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Towards a More Sophisticated Understanding of Myth and Religion (?)
Lately I have been investigating the work of Jordan Peterson which I have found to be of great value. Indeed, I have to admit that I am being persuaded but trying to keep a critical mind and balance between doubt and belief.
I thought this is a stron... |
82d64c11-0804-482d-8276-83301bb639a5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI strategy nearcasting
*Cross-posted from the [Alignment Forum](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/Qo2EkG3dEMv8GnX8d/ai-strategy-nearcasting) / [Less Wrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Qo2EkG3dEMv8GnX8d/ai-strategy-nearcasting)*
This is the first in a series of pieces taking a stab at dealing with a conundru... |
d3ac37c2-2e49-4d99-bac7-e567bd75fd3b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Alignment Newsletter #1: 04/09/18
Highlights
Specification gaming examples in AI (Victoria Krakovna): A list of examples of specification gaming, where an algorithm figures out a way to literally satisfy the given specification which does not match the designer's intent.
Should you read it? There were several exa... |
065e0ea9-b6bd-4486-8b1c-a277c55dc17e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread, January 2011
Better late than never, a new open thread. Even with the discussion section, there are ideas or questions too short or inchoate to be worth a post.
This thread is for the discussion of Less Wrong topics that have not appeared in recent posts. If a discussion gets unwieldy, celebrate by turni... |
471e7f61-05bb-4176-87a3-d4dde532ce7b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A short conceptual explainer of Immanuel Kant's Critique of Pure Reason
I know which one I would take.
Introduction
While writing another document, I noticed I kept referring to Kantian concepts. Since most people haven't read Kant, that would lead to interpretation problems by default. I'm not satisfied with any su... |
71862212-b5e8-4aa0-a248-8c2564e26de6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI+bio cannot be half of AI catastrophe risk, right?
Recently, I have heard an increasing number of prominent voices mention the risk of AI helping to create catastrophic bioweapons. This has been mentioned in the context of AI safety, and not in the context of biosecurity. Thus, it seems anecdotally that people see a... |
7ffa67f2-5088-46f7-8f74-32aa03c2c0f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wasteful qualifiers
Users of languages improve them by adding new words. Often languages would also be improved by taking away words – not so much such that nobody ever uses the word, but just so it is not necessary to convey a certain meaning. For instance since it is very rare for a claim to be meant with one hundre... |
1c9ad105-9428-4adc-ad5b-aa6aaf3108ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's the best ratio for Africans to starve compared to Ukrainians not dying in the war?
Actions have consequences. One of the consequences of our trade sanctions is to increase wheat and corn prices significantly. There are currently Africans who are on the brink of starvation and the increased food prices will incr... |
a474d7c6-d0f7-4e03-b5fa-2b10c7d3d621 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - November 2016
Discussion article for the meetup : Sydney Rationality Dojo - November 2016
WHEN: 06 November 2016 04:00:00PM (+1100)
WHERE: 10 Shepherd Street, Chippendale
Come join us for our November dojo. Dinner afterwards for those who wish to come, as usual.
Discussion artic... |
c451c22b-409f-4502-b741-432b0a8fba81 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Tools for decision-support, deliberation, sense-making, reasoning
I'm actively researching and cataloging various kinds of projects relating to decision-support, deliberation, sense-making, and reasoning. Some example categories include:
* Deliberative Democracy Tools - Systems for structured citizen participation, ... |
e4361b35-80c1-4a3f-b705-b027c56a2d49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [AN #59] How arguments for AI risk have changed over time
Find all Alignment Newsletter resources here. In particular, you can sign up, or look through this spreadsheet of all summaries that have ever been in the newsletter. I'm always happy to hear feedback;
Highlights
A shift in arguments for AI risk (Tom Sittler)... |
b164d211-8381-422d-93bd-4a17b61b8265 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Rational Agents Win"
Rachel and Irene are walking home while discussing Newcomb's problem. Irene explains her position:
"Rational agents win. If I take both boxes, I end up with $1000. If I take one box, I end up with $1,000,000. It shouldn't matter why I'm making the decision; there's an obvious right answer here. ... |
fecb9733-0b48-4288-8cbf-993a1d617dc4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Digital Error Correction and Lock-In
Epistemic status: a collection of intervention proposals for digital error correction in the context of lock-in. It reflects my own intervention ideas, and the opinion of Formation Research at the time of writing.
TL;DR
We believe lock-in risks are a pressing problem, and that th... |
35e1bb4a-8294-4748-a204-55aebced9953 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | A Technical Explanation of Technical Explanation
This essay is meant for a reader who has attained a firm grasp of Bayes’ Theorem. An introduction to Bayes’ Theorem may be found at [An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning](https://eyudkowsky.wpengine.com/rational/bayes) . You should easily recognize, and intuit... |
dc769dcc-efa0-4410-8777-83fb11ddebd7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Norms For Link Posts
There are a lot of interesting content I read on the internet (some of which may not have been produced by the rationalist diaspora (and which the authors wouldn't want to crosspost to Lesswrong)) that I nonetheless found interesting and feel like sharing with other Lesswrongers. However, I am not... |
9aa1f233-df69-4ff6-962b-bea5f89b149d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should you work at 80,000 Hours?
The purpose of this post is to discuss some considerations relevant to whether it is high impact for you as an individual to work for 80,000 Hours.
Disclaimer: I am an employee at 80,000 Hours (from here on 80k). We are currently recruiting, and want to attract people to work for u... |
cd4dcf1f-65df-451a-a0b7-bee49fa2112f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Fields that I reference when thinking about AI takeover prevention
Is AI takeover like a nuclear meltdown? A coup? A plane crash?
My day job is thinking about safety measures that aim to reduce catastrophic risks from AI (especially risks from egregious misalignment). The two main themes of this work are the design o... |
43e6dff9-0edc-4b06-becb-7d5caa64e7ec | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Link: What does it feel like to be stupid?
What does it feel like to be stupid?
> I had an arterial problem for a couple of years, which reduced blood supply to my heart and brain and depleted B vitamins from my nerves (to keep the heart in good repair). Although there is some vagueness as to the mechanisms, this mad... |
a5db3293-a8ee-4340-bba4-ad6a72d33b88 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Adjust for the middleman.
This post is from the point of view of the middleman standing between the grand future he doesn't understand and the general public whose money he's hunting. We have a certain degree of power over what to offer to the customer, and our biases and pet horses are going to contribute a lot to wh... |
27d220d5-aae6-4885-be00-dbbfcb2ce5b7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Time flies when robots rule the earth
*By Katja Grace, 28 July 2015*
This week Robin Hanson is finishing off his much anticipated book, [The Age of Em: Work, Love and Life When Robots Rule the Earth](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2015/03/oxford-to-publish-the-age-of-em.html). He recently told me that it would be hel... |
5e741fa2-a6ea-47fe-9d1a-20d26bb947e4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What would you expect a massive multimodal online federated learner to be capable of?
One intuitive picture I have for what very rapid ML capability gains might look like is a massive multimodal deep learning model that uses some form of online federated learning to continually learn from many devices simultaneously, ... |
a1fdbd70-f12e-42c8-844c-17660f9c3ae5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI strategy given the need for good reflection
If the ideas in “moral ~realism”[1] and/or “beyond Maxipok”[2] are broadly correct, this has implications for AI strategy. (Like those posts, this is largely getting some old imperfect ideas out of the door with a little polishing; again the ideas owe credit to conversati... |
9b398680-7e0d-4c15-8ec1-b345b5dacd6b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | From motor control to embodied intelligence
#### Using human and animal motions to teach robots to dribble a ball, and simulated humanoid characters to carry boxes and play football
Humanoid character... |
01ecf329-6bd3-4058-8652-0c7010486979 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Should a judge do it's job or maximize overall happiness
John Smith is a head judge. He's living in a state with has a three strikes law. He personally doesn't believe in the three strikes law. He resides in the highest appellate court in his state. He's operating in a state without juries.
As part of John's job he w... |
8de4534b-f40e-4d6d-b061-4301a4a9c80d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Dwarkesh’s 3rd Podcast With Tyler Cowen
This post is extensive thoughts on Tyler Cowen’s excellent talk with Dwarkesh Patel.
It is interesting throughout. You can read this while listening, after listening or instead of listening, and is written to be compatible with all three options. The notes are in order in te... |
6a353b5f-3017-45db-9328-e177efc29516 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Basic Income. org
|
458d31fa-f46a-4a0d-8b94-d6b2ae6b462d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Technocratic Plimsoll Line
Plimsoll line is a marking where the hull of a ship meets the surface of the water.
I've just read a discussion between Glen Weyl and Scott Alexander about technocracy. It's really hard to figure out what they are actually disagreeing about. My naive understanding is that Weyl may be saying... |
e4719dae-feb1-4d9d-8309-fb65d7bb0b45 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Continuous doesn’t mean slow
*Note: This post was crossposted from [Planned Obsolescence](https://www.planned-obsolescence.org/continuous-doesnt-mean-slow/) by the Forum team, with the author's permission. The author may not see or respond to comments on this post.*
> *Once a lab trains AI that can fully replace it... |
49074124-a256-4869-be3e-4f29cb71b25e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conjecture Second Hiring Round
Conjecture is hiring! We have open roles for all teams, both technical and non-technical. We have written a bit more about the teams at Conjecture here and you can view all open positions here. Applications for the hiring round will close December 16.
Conjecture is an AI Safety startup ... |
bad1f3c2-e516-4a61-bf07-4f4b151240a7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Good Life Quantified
Cross-posted, as always, from Putanumonit.
----------------------------------------
Rob Wiblin writes at 80,000 Hours, a site for systematically thinking about how to have a positive impact for the world through your career. The site tends to an analytical approach, with explicit models for ... |
a10a1ead-b5a2-4ca8-9164-c4147748b18d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | QAPR 4: Inductive biases
Introduction
This is week 4 of Quintin's Alignment Papers Roundup. The current focus is the inductive biases of stochastic gradient descent.
For most datasets and labels, there are many possible models that reach good performance. "Inductive biases" refers to the various factors that incline ... |
425ba344-ee26-4587-8566-8a8ca3720fe0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Homeostasis and “Root Causes” in Aging
Let’s start with a stylized fact: almost every cell type in the human body is removed and replaced on a regular basis. The frequency of this turnover ranges from a few days (for many immune cells and cells in the gastrointestinal lining) to ten years (for fat, heart, and skeleton... |
f254bef8-499f-4f29-82fa-3082b88e4ede | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Meet up LW Sao Paulo
Discussion article for the meetup : Meet up LW Sao Paulo
WHEN: 16 April 2016 02:00:27PM (-0300)
WHERE: Vanilla café - 2o andar, Rua Antônio Carlos, 452. São Paulo, Brazil.
Encontro mensal de racionalistas, novatos são bem vindos! Teremos algumas lições de racionalidade prática, discuss... |
4592354a-f3ea-47e6-8731-974b08ff5cde | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality of demonstrating & voting
Summary
Based on rough estimates of their effectiveness, voting is a very good use of time, but demonstrating far less so – though it may still be worth doing, at least for a very large demonstration on a major issue.
Introduction
Why bother voting? Your vote will only change th... |
fc4dcb7a-b2cc-4912-a4bf-5525d27b74de | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The International PauseAI Protest: Activism under uncertainty
This post is an attempt to summarize the crucial considerations for an AI pause and AI pause advocacy. It is also a promotion for the International PauseAI protest, 21 October, the biggest AI protest ever, held in 7 countries on the same day. The aim of thi... |
72d08dc2-cde0-49e7-ab0d-8ce686ec754a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Updating, part 1: When can you change your mind? The binary model
I was recently disturbed by my perception that, despite years of studying and debating probability problems, the LessWrong community as a whole has not markedly improved its ability to get the right answer on them.
I had expected that people would read... |
3e002e81-fd4c-4bff-9022-b1f3bdc60023 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Formalising cousin_it's bounded versions of Gödel's theorem
In this post, I'll try and put cousin_it's bounded version of Gödel's theorem on a rigorous footing. This will be logic-heavy, not programming heavy. The key unproved assumptions are listed at the bottom of the post.
Notes on terminology:
* T is our deduct... |
1cd383e3-2a92-4c44-a129-0da3ba6b6d8e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Helsinki Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Helsinki Meetup
WHEN: 15 June 2014 05:00:00PM (+0300)
WHERE: Vilhonkatu 4, 00100 Helsinki, Finland
We are having an informal meetup in Kaisla. To find us there, look for someone wearing a bright red cap.
Discussion article for the meetup : Helsinki Meet... |
cfe30bb2-bf18-48b3-8af4-7f236efa0f92 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Knowledge vs Technology
Here's a little thing I wrote down a couple of years back:
Question: Does the following statements represent three different stages of technological development or does two of them represent the same stage? In some sense it should boil down to how we define the word 'technology', or at least i... |
bad93e53-721c-479a-900b-cb95b6d97507 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How could "Kickstarter for Inadequate Equilibria" be used for evil or turn out to be net-negative?
Following up to "If a "Kickstarter for Inadequate Equlibria" was built, do you have a concrete inadequate equilibrium to fix?"
I think a kickstarter for coordinated action would be net positive, but it's the sort of gen... |
dceca7be-a729-4fd0-98c1-889a02fe3e38 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Tendencies in reflective equilibrium
Consider a case, not too different from what has been shown to happen in reality, where we ask Bob what sounds like a fair punishment for a homeless man who steals $1,000, and he answers ten years. Suppose we wait until Bob has forgotten that we ever asked the first question, and t... |
138802e2-b0d0-40f4-852d-1603d68ee0c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | An explanation of decision theories
[Epistemic status: I may have gotten some things wrong so please point out any errors. I also papered over a lot of technical details in favor of presenting my intuitions. A lot of this is me thinking out loud. If you already know a lot about decision theory or want the gory details... |
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