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7.55M
cbcc737a-2775-46ce-b581-0ed7bc4496e0
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Post/meta-skepticism I Less Wrong has been significantly influenced by the skeptic movement. This has general been good for the epistemic health of our community, but at the same time we should also worry about whether everything we have inherited is true and beneficial. In other words, we need to apply skepticism to ...
6c2cfd83-9ef7-4684-a716-9c58dc13868c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : MelbLW Social Meetup: Feb 2016 Discussion article for the meetup : MelbLW Social Meetup: Feb 2016 WHEN: 19 February 2016 06:30:00PM (+1100) WHERE: Bull and Bear Tavern, 347 Flinders Lane, Melbourne VIC 3000 This month's LessWrong Melbourne social meetup is on again this week! Facebook event page: https://...
70e3e6ba-cf7f-41f4-bb24-08076f89e0f0
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Catastrophic sabotage as a major threat model for human-level AI systems Thanks to Holden Karnofsky, David Duvenaud, and Kate Woolverton for useful discussions and feedback. Following up on our recent “Sabotage Evaluations for Frontier Models” paper, I wanted to share more of my personal thoughts on why I think catas...
e68c4ff3-6119-47f8-b4a8-e73896ac85ee
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Another Case Study of Inadequate Equilibrium in Medicine Science Journalist Julie Rehmeyer suffered from crippling Chronic Fatigue Syndrome. She's plugging a new book discussing her experiences with the not-medically-established treatment. The article in this link post discusses her decision to attempt the treatment, ...
525c2c46-6639-4a86-b94c-19fea9390210
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital
Arbital
Quotient by subgroup is well defined if and only if subgroup is normal Let $G$ be a [https://arbital.com/p/-3gd](https://arbital.com/p/-3gd) and $N$ a [https://arbital.com/p/-4h6](https://arbital.com/p/-4h6) of $G$. Then we may define the *quotient group* $G/N$ to be the set of [left cosets](https://arbital.com/p/4j4)...
25f32810-36f7-44e9-a365-71c5bc92ff9a
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
[AN #148]: Analyzing generalization across more axes than just accuracy or loss Alignment Newsletter is a weekly publication with recent content relevant to AI alignment around the world. Find all Alignment Newsletter **[resources here](http://rohinshah.com/alignment-newsletter/)**. In particular, you can look through...
dfbef90d-537e-4e8d-98b0-b7b494e1a65f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Taxonomy of possibility Followup to: Will issues are quite nearly skill issues You do a thing iff you can do it and you want to do it. Something you can do, but didn't, looks just the same to the simple observer as something you can't do. Likewise with what you want to do, but didn't. When you don't do something, ob...
947220aa-c9c7-4ead-b1ba-4642bf361f93
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Friedman's "Prediction vs. Explanation" David D. Friedman asks: > We do ten experiments. A scientist observes the results, constructs a theory consistent with them, and uses it to predict the results of the next ten. We do them and the results fit his predictions. A second scientist now constructs a theory consistent...
1f9bd70b-8b7e-4990-aa06-810be9ab0823
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Rationality Reading Group: Part I: Seeing with Fresh Eyes This is part of a semi-monthly reading group on Eliezer Yudkowsky's ebook, Rationality: From AI to Zombies. For more information about the group, see the announcement post. ---------------------------------------- Welcome to the Rationality reading group. Thi...
901d66e0-3b9b-4463-a9c1-e69bf664a6d9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Paper: "The Ethics of Advanced AI Assistants" -Google DeepMind Google Deepmind just released a 200 page paper. A few Authors are from the community.
4f7106f3-c06d-4c05-85c9-a0df87e89a08
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Prize] Essay Contest: Cryonics and Effective Altruism I'm starting a contest for the best essay describing why a rational person of a not particularly selfish nature might consider cryonics an exceptionally worthwhile place to allocate resources. There are three distinct questions relating to this, and you can pick a...
937dbb32-8f4c-439f-835b-4fbea82835fd
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Counterintuitive World - Good intro to some topics http://motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2010/09/counterintuitive-world    
57ca8bf0-a8e6-4a97-a353-3de0cd3c6b35
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
What does "probability" really mean? Recently I read Wei Dai's "What Are Probabilities, Anyway?" post, and just wanted to see if the LessWrong community has now reached a consensus on the interpretation of probability. I am of the impression that most LWers endorse multiverse theories, whether it be the Many-Worlds In...
a893560a-5576-483d-9e54-cf0fe1ea991c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Simulacrum Levels of Trust Epistemic Status: Pattern matching. The model completes a pattern in an intuitive way. Little originality besides the act of pattern completion itself. As I was reading the recent discussion about networks of trust, I noticed a mismatch between models described therein and the social enviro...
7b68a337-ba94-4c15-b62e-63ba9049bbf9
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Forecasting as a tool for teaching the general public to make better judgements? Tl;dr: We are wondering whether there might be more value in forecasting as a popularized educational activity than seems to be the consensus. Looking for explicit opinions and feedback. We are a team working on popularizing evidence- a...
5fd08050-b357-4822-bc26-f864966d7ba5
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Aspiration-based designs] 2. Formal framework, basic algorithm Summary. In this post, we present the formal framework we adopt during the sequence, and the simplest form of the type of aspiration-based algorithms we study. We do this for a simple form of aspiration-type goals: making the expectation of some variable ...
e348598f-4bbb-47cd-aa27-2afbe9905e22
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Board Games Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Board Games WHEN: 09 March 2015 06:15:00PM (-0700) WHERE: 1390 Market St., San Francisco, CA (Note that this is back in my apartment, not app academy: we have tables and boardgames here). We'll be meeting up to han...
96297d1a-b229-4a56-acc4-f554f424c64e
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs
Blogs
Fiction *While I tend to publish most of my writing for free, I strongly believe that money is not evil. Therefore, anyone is welcome to take characters or settings from my original online fiction, such as the beisutsukai or the Baby-Eating Aliens, and use them in new commercial works of your own creation. I do ask fo...
464c28fa-6fe4-4308-af70-d31a5e31415e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Two Truths and a Lie Response to Man-with-a-hammer syndrome. It's been claimed that there is no way to spot Affective Death Spirals, or cultish obsession with the One Big Idea of Everything. I'd like to posit a simple way to spot such error, with the caveat that it may not work for every case. There's an old game ca...
94b962dc-a3de-4eb5-ab89-4a207c629f66
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Two Alternatives to Logical Counterfactuals The following is a critique of the idea of logical counterfactuals. The idea of logical counterfactuals has appeared in previous agent foundations research (especially at MIRI): [here](https://intelligence.org/2017/03/18/new-paper-cheating-death-in-damascus/), [here](https:/...
8b7b138d-4ffb-4bfa-884a-565f280b338d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Parenting Technique: Increase Your Child’s Working Memory I continually train my ten-year-old son’s working memory, and urge parents of other young children to do likewise.  While I have succeeded in at least temporarily improving his working memory, I accept that this change might not be permanent and could end a few...
6f9a7428-0a94-4ff6-9cf0-638c53fe773c
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Could Democritus have predicted intelligence explosion? Also see: [History of the Friendly AI concept](http://friendly-ai.com/faq.html#WhatIsTheHistory). The [ancient atomists](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomism) reasoned their way from first principles to materialism and atomic theory before Socrates began his li...
4a50f313-31db-435c-bef4-27de8cbf1e21
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Passing Troll Bridge In an earlier discussion about the Troll Bridge problem, Abram mentioned a Lobian proof that a logical induction based agent would converge to not crossing the bridge. It looked rather sketchy, though, and further discussion by Paul in the comments revealed that Troll Bridge might be passable. (...
5e84d4c1-86ba-4af6-ad1b-280108842a93
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Weekly LW Meetups: Portland, Berkleley, San Diego, Pittsburgh, Houston, Seattle, Madison, Fort Collins, Sydney, Melbourne There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in: * Portland Meetup?: 14 January 2012 12:00PM * San Diego experimental meetup: 15 January 2012 01:00PM * Pittsburgh Meetup: Big Gam...
318915d1-4e8c-4f45-b440-c77e53fac718
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[SEQ RERUN] Something to Protect Today's post, Something to Protect was originally published on 30 January 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):   > Many people only start to grow as a rationalist when they find something that they care about more than they care about rationality itself. It takes something reall...
45c9350f-a1c6-441c-8bc9-790ff0c5514c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[Thought Experiment] Tomorrow's Echo - The future of synthetic companionship. For those who are interested in the likely future tension between AI and human companionship, you may be interested in checking out a thought experiment that I've crafted. The distant future of Replika and other AI Companion apps could expl...
dc3a7e65-4fe1-4e4e-b3b3-fd596f6917e6
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
On the possibility of impossibility of AGI Long-Term Safety Preface The following article is a layman’s summary of researcher and philosopher Forrest Landry’s work titled No People as Pets: A Dialogue on the Complete Failure of Exogenous AGI/APS Alignment. It is a basic presentation of an argument as to why any form o...
377d2cfd-b471-421b-9e4d-87650bedd76d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Destructive mathematics Follow-up to: Constructive mathematics and its dual In last post, I've introduced constructive mathmatics, intuitionistic logic (JL) and its dual, uninspiringly called dual-intuitionistic logic (DL). I've said that JL differs from classical logic about the status of the law of excluded middle,...
aecaf470-beee-4eff-ab0a-5da7c799fd99
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Hyderabad Meetup Discussion article for the meetup : Hyderabad Meetup WHEN: 08 July 2012 03:00:00PM (+0530) WHERE: Hyderabad, India Cafe Coffee Day, NEXT TO Airtel Showroom, Madhapur Main Road, Madhapur, Hyderabad (Landmark: OPPOSITE Krishe Sapphire) Ph: +91 9566057018 Discussion article for the meetup ...
055da46a-5597-4113-9a9d-8d3db328943e
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Adumbrations on AGI from an outsider Preamble A lot of people have written against AI Doom, but I thought it might be interesting to give my account as an outsider encountering these arguments. Even if I don’t end up convincing people who have made AI alignment central to their careers and lives, maybe I’ll at least ...
b0ed70fd-d440-4ba0-900b-4f0fdd0dbc6d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Who Organizes Dances? Most contra dances are organized by a committee of volunteers: ~3 to ~8 people who divide up the work. This includes both advance work like coordinating with the venue, booking performers, and publicizing the dance, and also day-of work like setup, cleanup, and handling things that come up at the...
470878be-a0d4-49d2-9332-14059fe08d85
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Doing Sport Reliably via Dancing For me, sport is important because it has a reliable anti-depressant effect. I also have more energy throughout the day. I also heard it helps with memory formation when done a couple of hours after learning. I find dancing very fun. That makes it easy to start. It's also a good worko...
39698872-6bae-48a7-8ab4-c02c0954ccbf
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Flowsheet Logic and Notecard Logic (Disclaimer: The following perspectives are based in my experience with policy debate which is fifteen years out of date. The meta-level point should stand regardless.) If you are not familiar with U.S. high school debate club ("policy debate" or "cross-examination debate"), here is...
bf121dfa-3412-49c9-9436-7a11f856cf49
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Self-improvement without self-modification This is just a short note to point out that AIs can self-improve without having to self-modify. So locking down an agent from self-modification is not an effective safety measure. How could AIs do that? The easiest and the most trivial is to create a subagent, and transfer t...
1e186d2e-8df4-4748-9d44-98c1e634c9ab
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
What is operations? This the first in a sequence of posts about “operations”. Acknowledgements to Malo Bourgon, Ray Arnold, Michelle Hutchinson, and Ruby for their feedback on this post. My ops background Several years ago, I decided to focus on operations work for my career. From 2017 to 2019 I was one of the oper...
280dd5e5-c199-49d9-9f2e-e18bb7195c4d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
On the nature of purpose [cross-posted from my blog]    Introduction Is the concept of purposes, and more generally teleological accounts of behaviour, to be banished from the field of biology?  For many years - essentially since the idea of Darwinian natural selection has started to be properly understood and in...
84ced080-716d-41b8-a430-a4e2a4cd2548
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Melbourne Practical Rationality Discussion article for the meetup : Melbourne Practical Rationality WHEN: 03 January 2014 06:30:00PM (+1100) WHERE: Level 2, 491 King St West Melbourne 3003 Practical Rationality. This meetup repeats on the first Friday of each month and is distinct from our monthly Social M...
74a28675-a66c-466c-8325-c6bb13540064
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : Thursday Meetup at UB Discussion article for the meetup : Thursday Meetup at UB WHEN: 21 March 2013 07:00:00PM (-0400) WHERE: University at Buffalo-North Campus, Rm 124 Capen Hall Buffalo,NY So I recently read Jackdaws' "The Eighth Meditation on Superweapons and Bingo" and I think it would be a great discu...
a46400b9-8546-4e89-b9c4-111aee607801
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
NIST: draft plan for AI standards development The National Institute of Standards and Technology, a part of the United States Department of Commerce, has released a draft plan for public comment. It was released July 02; comments are accepted until July 19; the final plan is due August 10. It is 36 pages long, includi...
fb84a6a0-03ba-41ec-a9e3-bfa7f336100b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
FAI-relevant XKCD http://xkcd.com/962/
c0c9cc8b-514f-489c-8c0f-7e3e59d3e495
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[SEQ RERUN] Zombies! Zombies? Today's post, Zombies! Zombies? was originally published on 04 April 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):   > Don't try to put your consciousness or your personal identity outside physics. Whatever makes you say "I think therefore I am", causes your lips to move; it is within the c...
6a158d23-6721-4afb-ac8a-031867e7f92d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
A case for AI alignment being difficult This is an attempt to distill a model of AGI alignment that I have gained primarily from thinkers such as Eliezer Yudkowsky (and to a lesser extent Paul Christiano), but explained in my own terms rather than attempting to hew close to these thinkers. I think I would be pretty go...
96e038e7-aba5-4c85-9d49-3ab74685856b
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
Secure homes for digital people Being a “[digital person](https://www.cold-takes.com/imagining-yourself-as-a-digital-person-two-sketches/)” could be scary—if I don’t have control over the hardware I’m running on, then someone else could get my code and run tons of copies in horrible conditions. (See also: qntm’s [Lena...
d7fc0db1-113e-4673-84a1-1b48cba958e3
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
A Bunch of Matryoshka SAEs This work was done as part of MATS 7.0. MATS provides a generous compute stipend, and towards the end of the program we found we had some unspent compute. To let this not go to waste, we trained batch topk Matryoshka SAEs on all residual stream layers of Gemma-2-2b, Gemma-2-9b, and Gemma-3-...
b2a8d888-1609-4054-b194-5ff6fc637ba7
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
What Are Your Preferences Regarding The FLI Letter? There's a big issue and it doesn't seem to having very much voting happening around it, and it has less really high quality voting, which might be sad, given the importance and stakes and so on? I think governance innovations that are inclusive of digital people wil...
ea780dc5-2015-42d4-9e72-bf2fc4d05f95
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Savulescu: "Genetically enhance humanity or face extinction" In this video, Julian Savulescu from the Uehiro centre for Practical Ethics argues that human beings are "Unfit for the future" - that radical technological advance, liberal democracy and human nature will combine to make the 21st century the century of glob...
96132674-4640-46ce-839a-d86380746714
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Training goals for large language models *This post was written under Evan Hubinger’s mentorship, as part of the*[*Stanford Existential Risks Initiative ML Alignment Theory Scholars (SERI MATS) program*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8vLvpxzpc6ntfBWNo/seri-ml-alignment-theory-scholars-program-2022)*. Many of the ide...
5128847a-30df-466c-956b-839406a2496b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Open & Welcome Thread - September 2019 * If it’s worth saying, but not worth its own post, here's a place to put it. * You can also make a shortform post. * And, if you are new to LessWrong, here's the place to introduce yourself. * Personal stories, anecdotes, or just general comments on how you found us a...
f59eecfa-3b47-4a45-8308-359f03ce50dc
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Inverse Problems In Everyday Life There’s a class of problems broadly known as inverse problems. Wikipedia explains them as follows: An inverse problem in science is the process of calculating from a set of observations the causal factors that produced them. [...] It is called an inverse problem because it starts wit...
403f3d59-cb3a-4059-9b90-9396ae4263c8
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Preserving our heritage: Building a movement and a knowledge ark for current and future generations Note: This post is written with partial assistances from ChatGPT. Furthermore, this post is explicitly released under public domain. TL;DR version: An essay highlighting the needs to build or energize a movement to sup...
ef725518-8469-4582-afe3-cd86f5746338
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Morality as Cooperation Part III: Failure Modes This is a Part III of a long essay. Part I introduced the concept of morality-as-cooperation (MAC) in human societies. Part II discussed moral reasoning and introduced a framework for moral experimentation. Part III: Failure modes Part I described how human morality ha...
1e1ef37d-8e8d-406d-b360-fa962e32ccb4
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
What is known about invariants in self-modifying systems? I have been trying to find out what is known about invariants in self-modifying systems. This might become a rather acute topic if we end up moving towards self-modifying AIs or self-modifying ecosystems of AIs. But it seems that not much has been done. For ex...
6fe12684-1f6c-41ea-b979-358107d0cf9c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Truth is Symmetric The Taj Mahal is symmetric with respect to right-left reflection. That is to say, if you create a mirror image of it that flips right and left, you get the exact same thing. Therefore, if as we're standing outside looking at it my friend Jen tells me that she thinks the left side of the Taj Mahal is...
fd975b30-11c4-4b72-9d3e-a82046315f9c
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital
Arbital
Reflective consistency A decision system is "reflectively consistent" if it can approve the construction of similar decision systems. For example, if you have an expected utility satisficer (it either takes the null action, or an action with expected utility greater than $\theta$) then this agent can self-modify to a...
8dfda30c-8419-4c24-a6ea-c3ca75334add
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Unregulated Peptides: Does BPC-157 hold its promises? Empiric status: I studied bioinformatics, but I'm not working in the field. I researched the article over a few months.   After reading about peptides and BPC-157 potential effects on wound healing, I decided to research BPC-157 and write this article to summarize...
eaaf3f30-a95d-47a1-93cc-4f9a1ca0053a
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv
Arxiv
Machine Explanations and Human Understanding 1. introduction ---------------- Although recent advances in deep learning have led to machine learning (ML) models with impressive performance (He et al., [2015](#bib.bib27); Mnih et al., [2015](#bib.bib43); Silver et al., [2017](#bib.bib54)), there are growing concerns...
1637fa17-67b8-4d55-9c9e-81559067c523
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
States of knowledge as quantum configurations I'm in the middle of reading the <a http://lesswrong.com/lw/r5/the_quantum_physics_sequence/>  sequence on quantum mechanics </a>.
77518cdf-fae5-452b-aefd-3c37014c45b2
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Torture vs. Shampoo I was reading the original comment thread on Torture vs. Dust Specks, and notice Eliezer saying he wouldn't pay a penny to avoid a single dust speck - which confused me, until I noticed that the original specification of the problem says the dust speck "floated into your eye and irritated it just a...
a24aefbc-790d-49d7-8098-2430e738aa18
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Friendly, but Dumb: Why formal Friendliness proofs may not be as safe as they appear While pondering the AI box problem, I tend to mentally "play" both sides, checking if there are any arguments that could convince me to let an AI out. Several I was nearly convinced by, but others have pointed out the flaws with these...
a58435e5-62a4-4167-bc2e-615fa1b31832
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Depression as a defense mechanism against slavery Individuals who have to conform to an external authority too powerful to resist often get depressed: which among other effects, includes lower productivity and higher risk for suicide.  This suggests one way how a tendency for depression, and resulting behaviors of akr...
c4a83b66-28ae-4833-83c5-4bc747536253
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Health Inflation, Wealth Inflation, and the Discounting of Human Life Abstract:     > This Article presents two new arguments against “discounting” future human lives during cost-benefit analysis, arguing that even absent ethical objections to the disparate treatment of present and future humanity, the economic calcu...
3ec2cef0-cdb1-4ccb-b5c7-c5d6ec5835db
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Sunday, Nov 8: Tuning Your Cognitive Algorithms For this Sunday's LW Online Meetup, I'll be will be leading an exercise on Mindful Puzzle Solving, derived from the Tuning Your Cognitive Algorithms exercise on bewelltuned.com.  The basic premise is to solve a medium-difficulty-puzzle, while spending a lot of attention...
9b13b983-710c-4fa2-8929-6d64fc9238cb
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
Singapore AI Policy Career Guide *This career guide was also co-authored by Tan Zhi Xuan.* *The original version of this career guide is on EA Singapore's website. I've removed large portions of it, so that it's better suited for the average EA forum audience. If you're based in Singapore, you might want to read the ...
25db7f75-2cbc-4455-8e4a-5e2994c7032c
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Sensation & Perception (The below notes are pretty much my attempt to summarise the content in this sample chapter from this book. I am posting this in discussion because I don’t think I will get the time/be bothered enough to improve upon this, so I am posting it now and hope someone finds it interesting or useful. I...
b4a24589-393b-4f75-ac0d-b97f7b19bf2b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Meetup : West LA Meetup 07-12-2011 - Bayes' Theorem Discussion article for the meetup : West LA Meetup 07-12-2011 - Bayes' Theorem WHEN: 12 July 2011 07:00:00PM (-0700) WHERE: 10800 West Pico Blvd, Suite 312, Los Angeles, CA 90064 When: 7pm - 9pm July 12th. Where: The Westside Pavillion - on the bridge, which conn...
10310372-f048-46b3-b4c1-98c92fd58849
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
GPT-4 aligning with acasual decision theory when instructed to play games, but includes a CDT explanation that's incorrect if they differ I did some tests with GPT-4 (through the [chat.openai.com](https://chat.openai.com) interface) to see what kind of decision theory it would employ. To prevent publication bias, I de...
aeda0685-3ab3-4473-93d2-cf4bdbc99460
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Evaluating weather forecast accuracy: an interview with Eric Floehr Eric Floehr has a business that "holds a mirror up" to weather forecasters, and aggregates and evaluates forecasters for weather forecast consumers. Rationalists interested in improving our societies truth orientation might be mildly interested. http...
126e774c-454d-4422-adf1-4e4a9a0a5878
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Optimizing optimizing LessWrong Our optimization process sucks. Every now and then someone makes up a thread concerning the optimization of LW, we have a nice discussion, one or the other idea gets a number of upvotes, sometimes quite a lot, but in the end, nothing happens. What's more, it is predictable that nothin...
2f921fb9-03cc-4936-bebc-2b3361dcd51f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
AI Probability Trees - Joe Carlsmith (2022) I am reviewing the work AI experts on what they think will happen with AI. This is a summary of Joe Carlsmith’s thoughts from his paper. AI risk scares me but often I feel pretty disconnected from it. This has helped me think about it.  Here are Carlsmith’s thoughts in brie...
24dc9717-7ff6-42f8-b596-61b6bbcadf20
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Less Wrong Poetry Corner: Walter Raleigh's "The Lie" Followup to: Rationalist Poetry Fans, Unite!, Act of Charity This is my favorite poem about revealing information about deception! It goes like this (sources: Wikipedia, Poetry Foundation, Bartleby)— > Go, Soul, the body's guest, > Upon a thankless arrant: > Fear ...
fd20dfdb-9ff1-4d9b-b9e7-71b718e58d17
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
[LINK] Relational models of Exchange The title may make it seem like it's mind-killing stuff (politics, religion, etc) but in fact it's about the different way people relate to one another. A lot of the things discussed in the article get mentioned here as "cognitive biases" but in fact they are a fundamental part of ...
27c83e97-b7cc-49f7-b0f2-8d5f372e92ea
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
The Parable of Predict-O-Matic I've been thinking more about partial agency. I want to expand on some issues brought up in the comments to my previous post, and on other complications which I've been thinking about. But for now, a more informal parable. (Mainly because this is easier to write than my more technical th...
b109277f-b7c4-469a-8cad-fc5a75d46993
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Decision Transformer Interpretability TLDR: We analyse how a small Decision Transformer learns to simulate agents on a grid world task, providing evidence that it is possible to do circuit analysis on small models which simulate goal-directedness. We think Decision Transformers are worth exploring further and may prov...
95274de8-b338-4a31-8f25-0e58b40bcc24
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Ask LW: Why no reproductive human cloning? From what I can tell human cloning for the purpose of, ya know, actually cloning a person in the Dolly sense, is legal in many parts of the United States. It looks hard to pull off but without conceptual problems. Seems likely that after the first few clones are born there'll...
452f2c86-6dad-4d88-8a94-42c55f28f29d
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs
Blogs
2015 FLOPS prices In April 2015, the lowest GFLOPS prices we could find were approximately $3/GFLOPS. However recent records of hardware performance from 2015 and earlier imply substantially lower prices, suggesting that something confusing has happened with these sources of data. We have not resolved this. Recent d...
f5a63496-aec2-489e-a8c0-2dc6db7beabf
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Wanting More Intellectual Stamina As a sophomore undergraduate student, my most valuable rewards from the college experience have come from personal growth, rather than the classroom. However, one problem that I can't seem to shake is dealing with all the subcategories of my total personality. On the one hand, I am h...
7784cf52-6ca7-43fe-bf23-39955b2d7d2a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Gradient surfing: the hidden role of regularization > Produced under the mentorship of Evan Hubinger as part of the SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program - Winter 2022 Cohort In a previous post, I demonstrated that Brownian motion near singularities defies our expectations from "regular" physics. Singularities t...
87f72b86-925a-49d7-a0bc-135b4a4de357
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
ChatGPT understands language Cross-posting this from my blog, since it seems relevant. The case for GPT understanding language, by way of understanding the world There's a debate going on about whether or not language models similar to ChatGPT have the potential to be scaled up to something truly transformative. The...
fa311925-6ae6-4026-85e2-b342d55a360d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Anatomy of a full school climate strike If students decided to indefinitely strike (Mon-Fri) over climate inaction, what might it look like, and how might it play out? Here is my preliminary brainstorm: Who would participate? The most likely participants are aged 12-17. Below that age you are less independent-minded...
c3589398-9f6a-4d12-82ec-111149aacd22
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Request for proposals: improving capability evaluations Open Philanthropy is launching an RFP for work on AI capability evaluations. We're looking to fund three types of work: 1. Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR)-relevant capability benchmarks for AI agents 2. Research to improve our understanding of how capabilities ...
74dc9b60-02de-429f-a34e-7ca57d7760a1
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Does quantum mechanics predict all the effects of relativity except gravity? (My reading of physics books is progressing very slowly, so I'll be done in a year at best, so I'm asking this question here.) Does quantum mechanics describe the slowing down of time and the contraction of objects when approaching the speed ...
53717c9b-e434-4c68-82f3-25c5f1db2e84
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Proposal for a Post-Labor Societal Structure to Mitigate ASI Risks: The 'Game Culture Civilization' (GCC) Model Abstract: Accelerating AI development presents existential risks and necessitates examining future human societal structures in the context of mass automation. Current socio-economic systems, particularly ca...
b78b25ac-9847-4530-95b6-e841516b810a
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Explicit Optimization of Global Strategy (Fixing a Bug in UDT1) When describing UDT1 solutions to various sample problems, I've often talked about UDT1 finding the function S* that would optimize its preferences over the world program P, and then return what S* would return, given its input. But in my original descrip...
dbd85bf8-1dec-4969-a5e7-6d2eb6df2d4b
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Violin Supports Violins are a bit of a strange design. Classically you hold them up by pinching them between your chin and shoulder (restricting head motion), though in more casual contexts people sometimes use their left arm (restricting hand motion). Neither of these are great! Why can't the violin stay up on its ow...
d5e78480-ecba-46ad-a537-806607d53eef
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
AI Training Should Allow Opt-Out Last year, GitHub announced their Copilot system, an AI assistant for developers based on OpenAI's Codex model, as a free closed beta. Yesterday, they added that Copilot would now be available to everyone, but at a cost of $10 per month per user. Copilot is trained on all public GitHub...
1926886a-922f-4868-9d9c-ccf49123df93
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum
Effective Altruism Forum
Explorers in a virtual country: Navigating the knowledge landscape of large language models **Summary** ----------- In this post, I present a story that illustrates the interaction with large language models (LLMs) through prompts as 'exploring an unmapped virtual country.' This story aims to help people understand h...
17edf46f-2dc0-49d3-926e-43ed7f6c39a6
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum
Alignment Forum
Learning the prior Suppose that I have a dataset D of observed (*x*, *y*) pairs, and I’m interested in predicting the label *y*\* for each point *x*\* in some new set D\*. Perhaps D is a set of forecasts from the last few years, and D\* is a set of questions about the coming years that are important for planning. The...
bc3b87e1-a2a5-448f-a0f5-192d1867a6ac
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Seeking Advice About Career Paths for Non-USA Citizen Hi all, Mostly lurker, I very rarely post, mostly  just read the excellent posts here. I'm a Filipino, which means I am a citizen of the Republic of the Philippines.  My annual salary, before taxes, is about $20,000 (USA dollars).  I work at an IC development com...
3bced73f-1795-44c5-a666-e7b8a13db064
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Having Useful Conversations Holding conversations in person is useful; feedback is quick, and it seems to be much easier to change your behavior as a result of actually talking with people.  Having effective goal-oriented conversations is somewhat difficult. One source of difficulty is a strong tendency to stray from...
83934c13-b3c4-46b0-9331-ba9065564db2
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Mech Interp Project Advising Call: Memorisation in GPT-2 Small I've recently been having advising calls with REMIX teams (Redwood's interpretability sprint) trying to give advice & feedback on projects. As an experiment, I've published a recording of one advising call (with Tessa Barton & Kushal Jain on memorisation i...
5c135261-307f-450c-b552-7246abd26490
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Weekly LW Meetups: Brussels, Houston, Madison, Melbourne, Moscow, Philadelphia (2), Sydney There are upcoming irregularly scheduled Less Wrong meetups in: * Jazz meetup in Philadelphia: 10 February 2012 06:00PM * First Brussels meetup: 11 February 2012 11:00AM * Moscow 11 February meetup: 11 February 2012 06:00PM ...
0ea94131-141e-48e1-b286-38f9c562a7b3
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Super-forecasters as a service I've just started building a website yesterday that I think would be super interesting, but I'm not sure if it's legal or if Metaculus/Elicit would be fine with it. The idea: Super-forecasters as a Service.  Say I wanted to know if I should book a flight to Costa Rica this summer, but...
f85401a9-91bd-4924-90a4-a8920e12de0b
StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong
LessWrong
GPT learning from smarter texts? (Epistemic status: I do not understand GPT deeply, so this is just a random idea.) If I understand it correctly, GPT learns from existing texts. Lots of texts. Would it be possible to make GPT smarter by simply giving it *smarter text*? Of course, writing tons of smarter text would b...
771c59dd-e63e-4871-b2e1-bf8f1ba31b3d
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Resurrection through simulation: questions of feasibility, desirability and some implications Could a future superintelligence bring back the already dead?  This discussion has come up a while back (and see the somewhat related); I'd like to resurrect the topic because ... it's potentially quite important. Algorithmi...
2b18fad3-71d3-448c-8e8b-7c08edc2f182
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Democracy beyond majoritarianism The classical definition of democracy is “rule of majority with respect to the minority”. But the classics perfectly knew how oppressive can be the 51% of people over the rest and how difficult is to implement “respect”. I simply reject the majoritarian principle: democracy shall be ab...
d65b2211-3afb-4409-bc81-eb45d67231fc
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
LIMA: Less Is More for Alignment Abstract > Large language models are trained in two stages: (1) unsupervised pretraining from raw text, to learn general-purpose representations, and (2) large scale instruction tuning and reinforcement learning, to better align to end tasks and user preferences. We measure the relativ...
49e07674-c952-4dc2-b257-9307c137ef95
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
GPT-4o is out OpenAI just announced an improved LLM called GPT-4o. From their website > Today, GPT-4o is much better than any existing model at understanding and discussing the images you share. For example, you can now take a picture of a menu in a different language and talk to GPT-4o to translate it, learn about ...
069f4f80-177f-42b9-b968-bd2fb263176f
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Environments for killing AIs 4. Environments for killing AIs Summary of entire Series: An alternative approach to designing Friendly Artificial Intelligence computer systems. Summary of this Article: Killing a rogue AI may be impossible in our current environment, but we can change that by changing the environment...
7db2ed64-e47d-43ae-b6a8-c4f0059b5fe5
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
post-rational distractions DonyChristie's intellectual fap post has called for post-rational techniques. I got most of the way through a comment reply before I realised it was a joke. April fools and all. Fruits of that effort here are some thoughts *** Developing your centre's. Sarah Perry's are knitting and moun...
25037c90-fa02-4dfb-bae4-30f050c90e06
trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k
LessWrong
Expevolu, Part II: Buying land to create countries This is the second of a series of three posts outlining the expevolu system; if you haven’t read the first one I’d recommend you start there: Expevolu, a laissez-faire approach to country creation PART II – Perpetual Auctions Table of Contents: 1) The Problem 2) Th...