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981d0727-686c-40b1-aa00-5ee460c5b49a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | New report: “Questions of reasoning under logical uncertainty”
[](https://intelligence.org/files/QuestionsLogicalUncertainty.pdf)Today we release a new technical report by Nate Soares and Benja Fallenstein, “[Questions of r... |
ae88335f-94d0-48dc-b2a2-0b7321c33cdc | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Long-Term Future Fund: Ask Us Anything!
The [Long-Term Future Fund](https://app.effectivealtruism.org/funds/far-future) (LTFF) is one of the [EA Funds](https://app.effectivealtruism.org/funds). Between Friday Dec 4th and Monday Dec 7th, we'll be available to answer any questions you have about the fund – we look forwa... |
e3fae5f7-a3cb-400d-bf0e-851785ec0cf1 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | AI Research Considerations for Human Existential Safety (ARCHES)
Preface
-------
At the time of writing, the prospect of artificial intelligence (AI) posing an existential risk to humanity is not a topic explicitly discussed at length in any technical research agenda known to the present authors.
Given that existen... |
e4b535c3-3cb5-4e63-880e-507104e3b342 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A note about calibration of confidence
Background
In a recent Slate Star Codex Post (http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/01/02/2015-predictions-calibration-results/), Scott Alexander made a number of predictions and presented associated confidence levels, and then at the end of the year, scored his predictions in order to... |
c267b493-d277-41ba-b9ad-64a9163b308b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | The "spelling miracle": GPT-3 spelling abilities and glitch tokens revisited
*Work supported by the Long Term Future Fund. Thanks to Jessica Rumbelow and Joseph Bloom for useful discussions.*
Introduction
============
The term "spelling miracle" was coined in Liu et al.'s December 2022 paper "[Character-aware models... |
0816ff49-84d4-4bf5-9719-bcf90f967acd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In software engineering, what are the upper limits of Language-Based Security?
Given the most security-amenable language you know, or that you could imagine building (or given some tools and processes that change the qualities of an existing language), by what proportion could we reduce the incidence rate of major sec... |
0c13f8e6-102c-4f4c-9754-3e72e1e9ad78 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Become a Superintelligence Yourself
> "Crystallect" stands for the crystal transparency and order in empowering the user’s intellect in contrast to the black box of neural-network-based Artificial Intelligence.
Nerds and Bullies
Kids in school, as I remember it, had two ways for getting good grades: to study hard or... |
7d8bca4d-f7d3-4076-8f37-0f74f78d3b28 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Retreat for rationality meetup organizers (apply to attend!)
TL;DR I'm running a retreat for meetup organizers in the Bay Area from July 21–24. More info here; you can apply using this form.
ETA: The application form will be open through the end of the day on April 30th, and final decisions will go out by May 7th.
-... |
b4a40fcf-4756-4411-bc14-dfaf4b633622 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Washington D.C. Games Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Washington D.C. Games Meetup
WHEN: 06 July 2014 03:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: National Portrait Gallery, Washington, DC 20001, USA
We will be congregating in the Kogod Courtyard for games and conversation.
(For those of you not familiar with the... |
feb7fd6e-9cb8-4e86-9a7c-b16abfbc00b9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Risk Assessment for Machine Learning Models
1 Introduction
---------------
With the deployment of machine learning (ML) models in safety and security critical environments, risk assessment becomes a pressing issue. Failure modes of a given ML model must be identified and the likelihood of occurrence and severity of... |
12b3d488-994a-4aa3-a7f8-f2b81e897e41 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Fiction relevant to AI futurism
This page is an incomplete collection of fiction about the development of advanced AI, and the consequences for society.
Details
-------
Entries are generally included if we judge that they contain enough that is plausible or correctly evocative to be worth considering, in light of... |
a4b35b5c-e872-4b1c-a0a1-742fd12041ea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Dennett on the selfish neuron, etc.
Dennett:
> Mike Merzenich sutured a monkey's fingers together so that it didn't need as much cortex to represent two separate individual digits, and pretty soon the cortical regions that were representing those two digits shrank, making that part of the cortex available to use for ... |
65796040-8ad8-4e1d-a559-6b7be455256b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | reflections on smileys and how to make society's interpretive priors more charitable
Hi : )
I used to use smileys in my writing all the time (more than I do now!). but then I read Against Disclaimers, and I thought that every time I used a smiley I wud make people who don't use smileys seem less friendly (bc my cons... |
faf7213d-2f00-43fd-8bd1-e90bc58e9e4b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The many ways AIs behave badly
EDIT: This has been previously posted here. Vika is now maintaining a centralized list of such examples.
I had a previous post about some of the ways AIs behave badly. But now there is a new paper, looking at many examples of (mis)behaviour, within the evolutionary programming design. A... |
36702ed4-f8a8-4ce2-8bdb-28d9932af144 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Goodhart Taxonomy
|
38e27099-6795-4f92-a4fc-9fc4438940ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The curse of identity
> So what you probably mean is, "I intend to do school to improve my chances on the market". But this statement is still false, unless it is also true that "I intend to improve my chances on the market". Do you, in actual fact, intend to improve your chances on the market?
>
> I expect not. Rath... |
04df6e14-cd2c-4d24-9efc-3208e4766304 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Why I think strong general AI is coming soon
I think there is little time left before someone builds AGI (median ~2030). Once upon a time, I didn't think this.
This post attempts to walk through some of the observations and insights that collapsed my estimates.
The core ideas are as follows:
1. We've already captur... |
7ed824d6-8b44-41ee-bb6f-4f65f5a2cbd7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | To Question God
"So you'll become God?" the man queried. His speaking finalizing his creation.
"You could say that." The as of now disembodied voice answered.
"Where are we?" The man pressed, having noticed the distinct lack of general vicinity surrounding him.
"It's more of a when than a where. To be more specific... |
97445f04-ee1d-41c1-b681-970f029ed62b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Part-time AI Safety Research Program] MARS 3.0 Applications Open for Participants & Recruiting Mentors
[Crossposted from EA Forum]
The Cambridge AI Safety Hub (CAISH) is now accepting applications for MARS 3.0 (Mentorship for Alignment Research Students), a volunteer-based program connecting aspiring researchers wit... |
fe138366-d417-4ef8-8cea-9be80ec5b052 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | If your AGI x-risk estimates are low, what scenarios make up the bulk of your expectations for an OK outcome?
There seem to be two main framings emerging from recent AGI x-risk discussion: default doom, given AGI, and default we're fine, given AGI.
I'm interested in what people who have low p(doom|AGI) think are the ... |
c7fe7292-da15-4728-bc8b-aaf9e0f2cb83 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Against Expected Utility
Expected utility is optimal as the number of bets you take approaches infinity. You will lose bets on some days, and win bets on other days. But as you take more and more bets, the day to day randomness cancels out.
Say you want to save as many lives as possible. You can plug "number of lives... |
e9692c26-8685-46a4-af6b-e2bd6fd3afa2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Welcome to Twin Cities SSC Meetup [Edit With Your Details]
(The following are our suggestions for what kind of information is best to include in the welcome post of your group, feel free to replace them with whatever you think is best)
What kind of events does your group usually run? What does it usually do?
How fre... |
95cd4c80-c1f0-4c4b-969a-1f66147eb84c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The LW crossroads of purpose
Hello everyone reading,
I'm writing this because I do not believe fixing peripheral things on LW is enough. And even though I wrote about it in a comment, I wanted to elaborate and highlight the issue through writing a post about it too. Even though this is not nearly as succinctly writt... |
ff0f17ef-a0d7-44fe-894a-2764e1be8b23 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Wikifying the blog list
Konkvistador's excellent List of Blogs by LWers led me to some of my favorite blogs, but is pretty well hidden and gradually becoming obsolete. In order to create an easily-update-able replacement, I have created the wiki page List of Blogs and added most of the blogs from Konkvistador's list. ... |
5eb37bf6-87a1-40a0-a30e-89fb04ed9810 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci(-Fi) June 2021 Evaluation and Ruleset
This is a followup to the D&D.Sci post I made last week; if you haven’t already read it, you should do so now before spoiling yourself.
Here is the web interactive I built to let you evaluate your solution; below is an explanation of the rules used to generate the dataset... |
e5f057bf-dbbe-4945-90c4-d6d6fbada767 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intent alignment as a stepping-stone to value alignment
I think Instruction-following AGI is easier and more likely than value aligned AGI, and that this accounts for one major crux of disagreement on alignment difficulty. I got several responses to that piece that didn't dispute that intent alignment is easier, but a... |
2fe0a5b1-ad68-4b0c-a4ba-64544b641797 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [link] How many humans will have their brain preserved? Forecasts and trends
http://lessdead.com/how-many-humans-will-have-their-brain-preserved-forecasts-and-trends
Summary:
> Doubling time for the number of people that got cryopreserved has been pretty consistently 9 years since the beginning. |
fc2883de-09e3-4370-8170-10f4bb6973d3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to Teach Students to Not Guess the Teacher’s Password?
As a teacher, I wonder if it is possible to instill this skill into students the skills of rationality and critical thinking. I teach the third grade, and it is not immediately apparent how to apply this with my own class.
The problems I foresee are as follow... |
5d2be90f-5423-4d2a-be47-15b5bf3a796f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Minerva
Google Research's new AI tackles natural language math problems and handily outperforms the SOTA[[1]](#fnz9ujz7hobka). It is a pre-trained PaLM [[2]](#fnjhan4auwcm)finetuned on some maths datasets (which use LaTeX) composed of maths webpages and Arxiv papers (38.5B tokens). The three models trained were as fol... |
445e5210-dd7c-4e16-bbab-2e66a60f2db5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Are you the rider or the elephant?
Some recent threads seem to me to be pointing at a really fundamental tension that I don't know how to articulate in full. But here's a chunk of it:
When you think of your mind as divided into your System 1 / fast / unconscious / nonverbal / intuitive / emotional processes, which we... |
a349296c-4d73-4311-875c-76a39e7f4e54 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Will AI and Humanity Go to War?
[This post is the introduction to my full paper, available here https://philpapers.org/rec/GOLWAA. This post was partially inspired by a LW comment thread between @Matthew Barnett and @Wei Dai.]
Abstract. This paper offers the first careful analysis of the possibility that AI and human... |
f86782a4-e8a9-4b44-a49d-35b07c78a1b7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Eukaryote Skips Town - Why I'm leaving DC
I’ve spent the past 7 years living in the DC area. I moved out there from the Pacific Northwest to go to grad school – I got my masters in Biodefense from George Mason University, and then I stuck around, trying to move into the political/governance sphere. That sort of happen... |
9b8e3b14-b373-47c2-ab2d-2e328c63b317 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Cambridge, MA Sunday meetup: Lightning Talks
Discussion article for the meetup : Cambridge, MA Sunday meetup: Lightning Talks
WHEN: 21 May 2017 03:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: Harvard Science Center, Room 105
IMPORTANT NOTE: The meetup is NOT at the usual location. Instead it is at the Harvard Science Center, ro... |
91fc7438-8bc2-40f5-9964-9636fd48f7b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI: 4 levels of impact [micropost]
1. LLM is as big as the smartphone/electricity: it will be the building block on which a lot of tech gets built.
2. AI is the new industrial revolution/agricultural revolution: it will allow for a whole new level of automation of the economy.
3. AGI is the new macro-optimisation p... |
f54cd20e-56a8-49ed-8a39-7bca449b24b9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Straightforward Steps to Marginally Improve Odds of Whole Brain Emulation
I want to make a small disclaimer that I have no formal training in most of this. I am pretty confident about my understanding of electrophysiology and some robotics but much less so about anything biochem/genetics related. If there are any mist... |
071e9a98-d79c-4bdf-a2b0-acc4ea5a9c0a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Jose Meetup: Park Day (X)
Discussion article for the meetup : San Jose Meetup: Park Day (X)
WHEN: 04 December 2016 03:00:00PM (-0800)
WHERE: 438 Coleman Ave, San Jose, CA 95110
You're invited to bring whatever you'd like to see at Park Day - balls, frisbees, food, etc. (Also, consider taking measures a... |
f0ef13a2-2ce2-4ff1-8f3e-c0e158efb68a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | World models I'm currently building
Update: This is a living document. Posted below is an older version. Link has the latest version.
2024-12-26
This doc is a mix of existing world models I have and holes in said models. I'm trying to fill some of these holes. The doc is not very well organised relative to how or... |
903730fd-4eb1-413e-8d95-cb1a5ebd90a6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Demand offsetting
For the last few years I’ve been avoiding factory farmed eggs because I think they involve a lot of unnecessary suffering. I’m hesitant to be part of that even if it’s not a big deal on utilitarian grounds. This is a pain since factory-farmed eggs are used all over the place (e.g. in ice cream, pastr... |
353b20ea-cfe8-4628-9c7a-8516bd246a5b | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Jobs that can help with the most important century
Let’s say you’re convinced that AI could make this the [most important century of all time for humanity](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/isENJuPdB3fhjWYHd). What can you do to help things go well instead of poorly?
I think **the biggest opportunities come fr... |
077ecb82-76ca-4972-bcfa-854551a0ca1f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Above the Narrative
Cross-posted from Putanumonit.com
----------------------------------------
Sometimes you write about a thing and that thing… happens.
I spent all of February working on a post about the mainstream narrative of American society: who gets to tell it, what happens when that narrative is challenged,... |
be353f29-f6db-4bd7-9a5f-cd6c145f923a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How rationality can make your life more awesome
I'm currently working with Lukeprog on a crash course in rationality. It's essentially a streamlined version of the Sequences, but one area we want to beef up is the answer to the question, "Why learn about rationality?"
I've gone through all of the previous threads I c... |
b8e5a0a2-e7e1-4b03-9ad1-999d7c80c79e | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Artificial Intelligence Safety and Cybersecurity: a Timeline of AI Failures
Artificial Intelligence Safety and Cybersecurity :
a Timeline of AI Failures
Roman V. Yampolskiy
Computer Engineering and Computer Science
University of Louisville
roman.yampolskiy@louisville.edu M. S. Spellchecker
Microsoft Co... |
fde899aa-151b-41e7-b0b4-616ce9b335f7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Introduction To The Infra-Bayesianism Sequence
.mjx-chtml {display: inline-block; line-height: 0; text-indent: 0; text-align: left; text-transform: none; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-size: 100%; font-size-adjust: none; letter-spacing: normal; word-wrap: normal; word-spacing: normal; white-space: nowra... |
77b3b483-9924-4078-9ae1-3c25c39edf5f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Remembering school math fondly
This is what I think about the recently linked article about kids not distinguishing 'math' problems where the actual question has nothing to do with anything else, as a bewildered learner and not a resigned tutor. Epistemic status - talkative.
Most math beyond arithmetic in our school ... |
986f9651-b475-43d4-b0b9-a015740f5f05 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The many faces of status
The term "status" gets used on LessWrong a lot. Google finds 316 instances; the aggregate total for the phrases "low status" and "high status" (which suggest more precision than "status" by itself) is 170. By way of comparison, "many worlds", an important topic here, yields 164 instances.
We ... |
9f91fec0-e286-4a41-810e-cac1c22993e9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Long-lasting Effects of Suspensions?
I recently read "The School to Prison Pipeline: Long-Run Impacts of School Suspensions on Adult Crime" (Bacher-Hicks et. al. 2019, pdf, via Rob Wiblin) which argues that a policy of suspending kids in middle school leads to more crime as an adult.
Specifically, they found that aft... |
feb818f0-3bea-4438-ba0f-f812bc4c1844 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Occam's Razor
Today's post, Occam's Razor was originally published on 26 September 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> To a human, Thor feels like a simpler explanation for lightning than Maxwell's equations, but that is because we don't see the full complexity of an intelligent mind. However, ... |
e0d98d8e-bd8e-4906-ad14-24896be78ae2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The non-tribal tribes
> Author note: This is basically an Intro to the Grey Tribe for normies, and most people here are already very familiar with a lot of the info herein. I wasn't completely sure I should post it here, and I don't expect it to get much traction, but I'll share it in case anyone's curious.
Introduc... |
1fdd7a85-cc72-473f-842f-14dc295281ba | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Rational numbers: Intro (Math 0)
*In order to get the most out of this page, you probably want a good grasp of the [integers](https://arbital.com/p/53r) first.*
"Rational number" is a phrase mathematicians use for the idea of a "fraction".
Here, we'll go through what a fraction is and why we should care about them.
... |
4f4c1f8b-87b3-431a-ba6c-8f188eb9c5a1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Directly advertising existential risk
Has anyone tried advertising existential risk?
Bostroms "End of Humanity" talk for instance.
It costs about 0.2 $ per view for a video ad on YouTube, so if 0.2% of viewers give an average of 100 $ it would break even. Hopefully people would give more than that.
You can target a... |
aa80e8d4-8fa8-4904-bbc4-ef3c2be9f309 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Superhero Bias
Suppose there’s a heavily armed sociopath, a kidnapper with hostages, who has just rejected all requests for negotiation and announced his intent to start killing. In real life, the good guys don’t usually kick down the door when the bad guy has hostages. But sometimes—very rarely, but sometimes—life im... |
0e7c8075-9cb1-4567-9a09-c721525f4241 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Subsuming Purpose, Part II: Solving the Solution
Summary: It's easy to get caught up in solving the wrong problems, solving the problems with a particular solution instead of solving the actual problem. You should pay very careful attention to what you are doing and why.
I'll relate a seemingly purposeless story abo... |
15899e31-5057-4185-90e1-30857667b67e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Minneapolis Meetup: Survey of interest
Frank Adamek and I are going to host a Less Wrong/Overcoming Bias meetup tentatively on Saturday September 26 at 3pm in Coffman Memorial Union at the University of Minnesota (there is a coffee shop and a food court there). Frank is the president of the University of Minnesota tra... |
1effd9e6-9d6c-490a-9b64-cefc95dc6ed8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Resist the Happy Death Spiral
Once upon a time, there was a man who was convinced that he possessed a Great Idea. Indeed, as the man thought upon the Great Idea more and more, he realized that it was not just a great idea, but the most wonderful idea ever. The Great Idea would unravel the mysteries of the universe, su... |
34d406c0-4313-4fad-afee-995aacf7a60b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How would public media outlets need to be governed to cover all political views?
As one of their questions Reporters without Borders asks for their World Press Freedom Index among others:
> Do public media outlets cover all political views?*
>
> Does the law provide mechanisms to guarantee pluralism and editorial in... |
536297db-4017-4cd8-bf48-69c7ae46a080 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | "Moral progress" vs. the simple passage of time
In [Future-Proof Ethics](https://www.cold-takes.com/future-proof-ethics/), I talked about trying to "consistently [make] ethical decisions that look better, with hindsight after a great deal of moral progress, than what our peer-trained intuitions tell us to do."
I ... |
be725583-4242-40be-8abd-c0cbdf959bed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Metrics in Everything: “Human Lives”
Epistemic Status: Ranting with the fire of a thousand suns
I was on page 48 of the (so far) otherwise interesting and enjoyable Algorithms to Live By, a birthday gift from my friend Jacob who writes the blog Put a Num on It, in which the authors Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths w... |
dc47d70e-f686-4369-9d0b-60a50389026a | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | AI-Relevant Regulation: Insurance in Safety-Critical Industries
### Preface
This post is part of a series exploring existing approaches to regulation that seem relevant for thinking about governing AI.
The goal of this series is to provide a brief overview of a type regulation or a regulatory body so others can unde... |
e7a1d627-9dc7-4acf-aef4-c430bbb9b9fc | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the Activities that make up your Research Process?
There are a bunch of activities that I engage in when doing research. These include but are not limited to:
* Figuring out the best thing to do.
* Talking out loud to force my ideas into language.
* For the last 3 months I have been working maybe 50 hou... |
3c6c9cb3-c39a-462e-b870-9080ae5757e4 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | WHAT IS THE UPPER LIMIT OF VALUE?
WHAT IS THE UPPER LIMIT OF VALUE ?
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute
University of Oxford
Suite 1, Littlegate House
16/17 St. Ebbe’s Street, Oxford OX1 1PT
anders.sandberg@philosophy.ox.ac.ukDavid Manheim
1DaySooner
Delaware, United States,
davidmanheim@gmail.com
January ... |
f2ac0a70-cfa2-4377-89fa-91478639bdea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Comments are back!
Instead of hosting comments on jefftk.com directly, I copy over publicly-accessible comments from discussion elsewhere:
By default it's first-name only when copying from social media (Facebook, Google Plus) and full name when copying from forums (LessWrong, EA Forum), though I have it always use m... |
19cca678-e0dc-4c4d-8658-c4ad9e3407d1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Eugenics And Reproduction Licenses FAQs: For the Common Good
1. What Is Eugenics?
There are various ways to define eugenics, as it is used in this FAQs:
* Eugenics is the deliberate social regulation of the genome.
* Eugenics is about consciously selecting for traits that make people better members of society.
* E... |
248742eb-9d0e-4396-9631-4c896fafd4fe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Three consistent positions for computationalists
Yesterday, as a followup to We are not living in a simulation, I posted Eight questions for computationalists in order to obtain a better idea of what exactly my computationalist critics were arguing. These were the questions I asked:
> 1. As it is used in the senten... |
f6899314-65f5-4071-b90f-081e81db0898 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Notes on Simplicity
This post examines the virtue of **simplicity**. It is meant mostly as an exploration of what others have learned about this virtue, rather than as me expressing my own opinions about it, though I’ve been selective about what I found interesting or credible, according to my own inclinations. I wrot... |
81801f4a-b308-4a6a-8668-7b1fabc30db6 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | Speculative inferences about path dependence in LLM supervised fine-tuning from results on linear mode connectivity and model souping
*TL;DR: I claim that supervised fine-tuning of the existing largest LLMs is likely path-dependent (different random seeds and initialisations have an impact on final performance and mod... |
55dfb68a-eb82-4044-bba5-1932f8f02e4a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Hiding misinformation in meanings
I
It is hard to spread misinformation, because information spreads too, and they eventually run into each other and explode.
If a person wants to lie then, they can be better off to make words correspond to different things for different people, so that even when people hear the inf... |
8d93e2d0-0165-4421-a1de-3a086e55ae4e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AutoBound on neural network can achieve OOMs lower training loss
Seems like gradient descent methods weren't using the relevant math bounds so far. Google released AutoBound as an open-source library.
Here is what I consider a money shot of the article (notice it's a log-plot):
Performance of SafeRate when used to ... |
8363499b-1408-4141-a6f7-9ea010691525 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Muehlhauser-Hibbard Dialogue on AGI
Part of the Muehlhauser series on AGI.
Luke Muehlhauser is Executive Director of the Singularity Institute, a non-profit research institute studying AGI safety.
Bill Hibbard is an emeritus senior scientist at University of Wisconsin-Madison and the author of Super-Intelligent Mach... |
184a2888-d8ad-410e-ace8-3c435e769608 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Challenges for Using Impact Regularizers to Avoid Negative Side Effects
1 Introduction
---------------
Specifying a reward function in reinforcement learning (RL) that completely aligns with the designer’s intent is a difficult task. Besides specifying what is important to solve the task at hand, the designer also ... |
a53c0f24-3022-44b1-a7e8-b61b3e5e1aa0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What's Going on With OpenAI's Messaging?
This is a quickly-written opinion piece, of what I understand about OpenAI. I first posted it to Facebook, where it had some discussion.
Some arguments that OpenAI is making, simultaneously:
1. OpenAI will likely reach and own transformative AI (useful for attracting ta... |
2efdc41e-22be-44cf-9921-c0e27c2d5e5a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Young Cryonicists Conference 2011
Next week I'll be attending the second annual Young Cryonicists conference, which Eliezer attended before writing Normal Cryonics. I expected there to be discussion about it on lesswrong, but there hasn't been, so here it is.
* Who else is going? Is EY going?
* What do you expect ... |
8ad085f6-1c48-4f7b-ad9f-802dca7b56f5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | EIS IX: Interpretability and Adversaries
Part 9 of 12 in the [Engineer’s Interpretability Sequence](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/a6ne2ve5uturEEQK7).
Thanks to Nikolaos Tsilivis for helpful discussions.
The studies of interpretability and adversaries are inseparable.
=============================================... |
c0718ef2-a7cd-4408-b6be-3db378988d4b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How well did Manifold predict GPT-4?
Chat GPT-4 is already here!! Who could have seen that coming… oh wait Manifold (kinda) did? 😅
I thought I’d write a short piece on how Manifold Markets was used to predict the launch of GPT-4 and its attributes. Both its successes and its failures. Disclaimer I work at Manifold.
... |
2129a1c6-d33d-4eb7-a03d-22c026fe0be3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Interpreting Neural Networks through the Polytope Lens
Sid Black*, Lee Sharkey*, Leo Grinsztajn, Eric Winsor, Dan Braun, Jacob Merizian, Kip Parker, Carlos Ramón Guevara, Beren Millidge, Gabriel Alfour, Connor Leahy
*equal contribution
Research from Conjecture.
This post benefited from feedback from many staf... |
5c27b693-62b9-432b-8445-4e79797352b2 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Distant superintelligences can coerce the most probable environment of your AI
A distant superintelligence can change 'the most likely environment' for your AI by simulating many copies of AIs similar to your AI, such that your local AI doesn't know it's not one of those simulated AIs. This means that, e.g., if there... |
e6c1b363-ca03-4a55-a4ad-04996db9b2f8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Detachment vs attachment [AI risk and mental health]
> "What? Why would I choose cosmic energy over Katara?"
>
> Avatar the Last Airbender
"You idiot" said the monk from atop his mountain, "there's all this fresh air up here and the view is breathtaking and you're down there dredging mud ." The mud-dredger only g... |
9fc8ebbb-6a71-4525-a4ca-ee1ea90dd440 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Stopping dangerous AI: Ideal lab behavior
Disclaimer: this post doesn't have the answers. Moreover, it's an unfinished draft. Hopefully a future version will be valuable, but that will only occur if I revise/rewrite it. For now you're better off reading sources linked from Ideas for AI labs: Reading list and Slowing A... |
62a8eeb7-dc8a-4cf6-95c1-a5358cc53212 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | Energy, Complexity, and the Singularity
Chapter 8
Energy, Complexity, and the Singularity
Kent A. Peacock
The technology hype cycle for a paradigm shift —railroads, AI, Internet, telecommunica-
tions, possibly now nanotechnology —typically starts with a period of unrealistic expec-
tations based on a lack of understan... |
5bc15cf7-68aa-484e-b304-e49d71112c9d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | AI Timeline Surveys
***This page is out-of-date. Visit the [updated version of this page](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=ai_timelines:predictions_of_human-level_ai_timelines:ai_timeline_surveys:ai_timeline_surveys) on our [wiki](https://wiki.aiimpacts.org/doku.php?id=start).***
*Published 10 January 2015*
... |
45baa013-101d-4953-88a5-e7a404226c79 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | New cooperation mechanism - quadratic funding without a matching pool
*cross-posted to [ethresear.ch](https://ethresear.ch/t/quadratic-funding-without-a-matching-pool/12792) and [LessWrong](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GpiwJcFdobZT9aHFm/quadratic-funding-without-a-matching-pool-1)*
Motivation
==========
Quadrat... |
065f7181-460e-4387-b497-b91b9ea39ba2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Performance on Human Tasks
This was an independent project with guidance and support from Vael Gates and Richard Korzekwa--thank you both for your mentorship!
Introduction
This project was inspired by a prompt from the AI Impacts project:
> For intellectual skills where machines have surpassed humans, find out h... |
9e755ea5-ad1e-4a67-9a5b-8688974f4ab9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Technology is Power: Raising Awareness Of Technological Risks
Technology puts power in consumers’, companies’, and politicians’ hands. How we do that in a safe and responsible manner is a complex problem. How can we raise awareness, rally support from all levels of society, so we can put in the proper measures, and sa... |
d9986b21-0c34-494b-a3b9-396d5b0e5671 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Homogeneity vs. heterogeneity in AI takeoff scenarios
Special thanks to Kate Woolverton for comments and feedback.
There has been a lot of work and discussion surrounding the speed and continuity of AI takeoff scenarios, which I do think are important variables, but in my opinion ones which are relatively less import... |
c74efdf7-1098-49e2-a5c1-fff528d12433 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Evolutions Are Stupid (But Work Anyways)
Today's post, Evolutions Are Stupid (But Work Anyway) was originally published on 03 November 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Evolution, while not simple, is sufficiently simpler than organic brains that we can describe mathematically how slow and st... |
5c2f557f-105f-49b3-bb7b-5ca57ce8a9f3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | For-Profit Rationality Training
As I've been reading through various articles and their comments on Less Wrong, I've noticed a theme that has appeared repeatedly: a frustration that we are not seeing more practical benefits from studying rationality. For example, Eliezer writes in A Sense that More Is Possible,
> Why... |
462c1ad3-d798-436b-9e23-436572834b4e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Crypto autopsy reply
(X-posted from my FB post: https://www.facebook.com/alexei.andreev.3/posts/1403550339754401)
Reply to Eliezer's post on crypto: https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10156147605134228
Which itself is a response to Scott Alexander's post: https://www.lesserwrong.com/…/Ma…/a-lesswrong-crypto-aut... |
8321b628-bb69-4784-b817-910decd52a0f | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Complexity theory: Complexity zoo
Welcome, visitor! Get ready to exercise your sense of wonder and expand your mind on the **zoo of complexity**.
That where are the cages of the animals, you ask? No cage could contain our specimens, I must say. But you can get a glimpse of their nature through the chalky definitions ... |
48d633f5-70eb-4c51-90fc-2ccae9d9d008 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Social Skills
Discussion article for the meetup : Social Skills
WHEN: 24 September 2014 07:00:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: 98 Elm Street, Somerville MA
Come hear the amazing and charismatic Sam Rosen speak! Cambridge/Boston-area Less Wrong Wednesday meetups are once a month on the last Wednesday at 7pm at Citadel (... |
3b5a85eb-b57e-494e-90ad-aee29b3f8301 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | The Benchmark Lottery
1 Introduction
---------------
Quantitative evaluation is a cornerstone of machine learning research. As a result, benchmarks, including those based on data sets and simulations, have become fundamental to tracking the progress of machine learning research.
Benchmarks have a long history i... |
37fa62c3-d234-40da-895e-05a47bd202df | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Towards Understanding Sycophancy in Language Models
1 Introduction
---------------
AI assistants such as GPT-4 (OpenAI, [2023](#bib.bib6 "GPT-4 technical report")) are typically trained to produce outputs that humans rate highly, e.g., with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF; Christiano et al., [2017... |
4ad26d3f-dfd7-4af6-8732-cb35ee8d31d7 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate is now available as an eBook!
[](http://intelligence.org/ai-foom-debate/ "The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate eBook")In late 2008, economist Robin Hanson and AI theorist Eliezer Yudkowsky ... |
ad147131-d480-47f3-af9d-026fdc2b370a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [LINK] Nick Bostrom: What happens when our computers get smarter than we are? (TED talk)
http://www.ted.com/talks/nick_bostrom_what_happens_when_our_computers_get_smarter_than_we_are |
2dbfb636-a831-4102-8732-4e0c909455c5 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Computerphile discusses MIRI's "Logical Induction" paper
None |
f3cf101c-54e1-45fd-bc8f-ebebad2e9a86 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | We are in a New Paradigm of AI Progress - OpenAI's o3 model makes huge gains on the toughest AI benchmarks in the world
This is the full text of a post from "The Obsolete Newsletter," a Substack that I write about the intersection of capitalism, geopolitics, and artificial intelligence. I’m a freelance journalist and ... |
6d152ba9-3f4a-4dd8-abc4-e5421e744ced | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Instrumental rationality/self help resources
I took part in a recent discussion in the current Open Thread about how instrumental rationality is under-emphasized on this website. I've heard other people say similar things, and I am inclined to agree. Someone suggested that there should be a "Instrumental Rationality ... |
b867e918-9a02-434a-895b-8c9bc48edeee | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Still no strong evidence that LLMs increase bioterrorism risk
<https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ztXsmnSdrejpfmvn7/propaganda-or-science-a-look-at-open-source-ai-and>
Linkpost from LessWrong.
The claims from the piece which I most agree with are:
1. Academic research does not show strong evidence that existing LLMs i... |
9feedf91-a903-4b23-9427-170e5a125ace | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A brief note on factoring out certain variables
Jessica Taylor and Chris Olah has a post on "Maximizing a quantity while ignoring effect through some channel". I'll briefly present a different way of doing this, and compare the two.
Essentially, the AI's utility is given by a function U of a variable C. The AI's acti... |
f5ae7f19-e55b-4f40-bb5d-4c50dfd3412b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Paper: The Capacity for Moral Self-Correction in Large Language Models (Anthropic)
This is a followup to what I cheekily call Anthropic's "just try to get the large model to do what you want" research agenda. (Previously: A General Language Assistant as a Laboratory for Alignment, Training a Helpful and Harmless Assis... |
f5df3f04-173f-4e98-a816-f7fe95424d25 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | How to become an AI safety researcher
*Reminder that you can listen to this post and other EA Forum posts on your podcast player with* [*The Nonlinear Library*](https://pod.link/1587343144)*.*
What skills do you need to work on AI safety? And what can we learn from the paths people have taken into the field? We were ... |
37553667-9262-4fea-824c-9e01b184b2ce | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/eaforum | Effective Altruism Forum | Stuart J. Russell on "should we press pause on AI?"
By coincidence (I think?) this episode was released during the [AI Pause debate week](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/s/vw6tX5SyvTwMeSxJk/p/6SvZPHAvhT5dtqefF) on the forum, so I felt like it was worth adding to the mix. The episode has general LMM/AI chat unit ~... |
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