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b0659eca-328e-49f5-9326-f52a44f8e826 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Person-moment affecting views
[Epistemic status: sloppy thoughts not informed by the literature. Hoping actual population ethicists might show up and correct me or point me to whoever has already thought about something like this better.]
Person-affecting views say that when you are summing up the value in different ... |
ca9c8f7b-d0b1-41af-a81e-7b864b796570 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Civil resistance and the 3.5% rule
Interesting, haven't seen anything data-driven like this before...
Civil resistance and the 3.5% rule.
https://rationalinsurgent.com/2013/11/04/my-talk-at-tedxboulder-civil-resistance-and-the-3-5-rule/
"no campaigns failed once they’d achieved the active and sustained participa... |
ed82cb5b-9da5-4b80-8805-1ca65356d507 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Computational Power and the Social Impact of Artificial Intelligence
1COMPUTATIONAL POWER AND THE SOCIAL
IMPACT OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Tim Hwang1
Machine learning is a computational process. To that end, it is inextricably
tied to computational power - the tangible material of chips and
semiconductors that t... |
34c92aa7-9af7-4d6b-bc4e-408244cebc60 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/lesswrong | LessWrong | Immortality or death by AGI
AKA My Most Likely Reason to Die [~~Young~~](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/hJDid3goqqRAE6hFN/my-most-likely-reason-to-die-young-is-ai-x-risk) is AI X-Risk
TL;DR: I made a model which takes into account AI timelines, the probability of AI going wrong, and probabilities of dying ... |
51d7ab98-1eb2-43f8-87a1-7b910e54c4af | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rational Evangelism
Not "rationality evangelism", which CFAR is doing already if I understand their mission. "Rational evangelism", which is what CFAR would do if they were Catholic missionaries.
If you believe in Hell, as many people very truly do, it is hard for Hell not to seem like the world's most important p... |
ccb7f9b2-f6b7-4f4f-80ba-727d8d130f7e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] The Rhythm of Disagreement
Today's post, The Rhythm of Disagreement was originally published on 01 June 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> A discussion of a number of disagreements Eliezer Yudkowsky has been in, with a few comments on rational disagreement.
Discuss the post here (rather than... |
bd5313ba-e5a9-4bc8-96e7-51c116ee4668 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arbital | Arbital | Shutdown problem
The 'shutdown problem' is creating a [sufficiently advanced Artificial Intelligence](https://arbital.com/p/7g1) which will, on the press of a button, suspend itself safely to disk; such that the AI [does not object](https://arbital.com/p/7g0) to the existence of this button, nor [try to prevent it](ht... |
8e6068ea-41b7-4cd2-b021-a9c87eb60bab | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Evaluating Language Model Behaviours for Shutdown Avoidance in Textual Scenarios
TLDR; We prompt language models with a text world environment where it is a capable goal-directed agent and it is aware of safety features such as shutdowns or interruptions. At a pivotal moment, the model is given a loophole to bypass sa... |
a0213fab-af6a-405b-b953-dcf51c58c010 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | 259. How Might We Align Transformative AI If Its Developed Very Soon 2
hello and welcome to session 259 in the
AI safety.com reading group tonight
we'll be discussing the middle part of
how might we align transformative AI if
it's developed very soon by Halton
kanovsky
Halton kanovsky is still the co-ceo of
open field... |
77c13da1-efeb-442c-b04e-d693f2131e74 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why I'm Not (Yet) A Full-Time Technical Alignment Researcher
1. I have bills to pay (rent and food). For those, I need money. Most full-time technical alignment researchers solve this problem by looking for outside funding. (I.e., most researchers are not independently wealthy; they go to someone else to afford to wo... |
64e03fe5-7914-4762-9c5a-37bc61d14a51 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Virtue of Compartmentalization
Cross posted from my blog, Selfish Meme.
I’d like to humbly propose a new virtue to add to Eliezer’s virtues of rationality — the virtue of Compartmentalization. Like the Aristoteian virtues, the virtue of Compartmentalization is a golden mean. Learning the appropriate amount of Co... |
34af381a-2e7c-499a-9f90-b534444646bd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A heuristic for predicting minor depression in others and myself, and related things
Summary
Look at how you or other people walk. Then going a bit meta.
Disclaimer
This post is probably not high quality enough to deserve to be top level purely on its qualitative merits. However I think the sheer importance of the i... |
395484d9-47d3-462d-a6a8-f904ef05861a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Github Repo and Issue Tracker
LessWrong 2.0 is open source. We wanted to have a handy link for people who want to check out the codebase, add new issues to the tracker, or potentially get involved with development.
The git repository is here.
You can see our issue tracker here.
We're not currently set up well for "... |
95274a2f-095a-424e-9048-ef391a93b732 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How the ---- did Feynman Get Here !?
How The Fuck Did Feynman Get Here !?I’ve been re-rereading stories about Feynman again. People decry that no such geniuses exist today, they oft seem to decry the fact that no physicists since has developed such a thirst for understanding and beautiful ability to abstract for other... |
085acd92-7fa5-4076-99b1-a0756c19460d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | April 2021 Newsletter
#### MIRI updates
* MIRI researcher Abram Demski [writes regarding counterfactuals](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yXfka98pZXAmXiyDp/my-current-take-on-counterfactuals):
>
> I've felt like the problem of counterfactuals is "mostly settled" (modulo some math working out) for about a year, ... |
f96fcdc8-6b2f-4fef-bfcc-f8ce1661e82d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Maximizing Your Donations via a Job
In November of 2012 I set a goal for myself: find the most x-risk reducing role I can fill. At first I thought it would be by working directly with MIRI, but after a while it became clear that I could contribute more by simply donating. So my goal became: find the highest paying job... |
d5b6fbb3-9053-4dc2-a345-a25bc684ab04 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to practice rationality?
Newbie to rationality and to LW. I'm currently going through the Hammertime Sequence to help provide structure to my rationality practice. Once I'm done, I'm not sure how I can integrate a daily/routine practice for rationality. Does anyone have suggestions how I can go about practicing?
... |
a8231945-681c-442b-a807-4fc7e8af8c11 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Relative Configuration Space
Today's post, Relative Configuration Space was originally published on 26 May 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> Maybe the reason why we can't observe absolute speeds, absolute positions, absolute accelerations, or absolute rotations, is that particles don't have a... |
8200a6d0-3252-4e00-9f43-cf50b0991212 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sparse Autoencoder Feature Ablation for Unlearning
TLDR:
This post is derived from my end of course project for the BlueDot AI Safety Fundamentals course. Consider applying here.
We evaluate the use of sparse autoencoder (SAE) feature ablation as a mechanism for unlearning Harry Potter related knowledge in Gemma-2-2b... |
57507965-88bc-4df8-9e19-2f728f884a55 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | I played the AI box game as the Gatekeeper — and lost
Eliezer Yudkowsky's AI box game is a two-hour conversation carried out through text. One person plays the part of the "Gatekeeper" and the other is the "AI". If, at any point, the Gatekeeper types the phrase you are out, the AI wins. If the Gatekeeper can go two fu... |
8276a927-4e66-4393-a8d1-1a4ecc2f5cdd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to build a mind - neuroscience edition
TL;DR: The early development of the brain, from molecular biology via dynamical systems to the theory of computation. Some speculation about how everything fits together.
Apologia
There is a story about John Nash that I like a lot. John Nash is a famous mathematician who go... |
713d7d28-72fa-42c1-ba75-99fd63ca14c9 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What are the known difficulties with this alignment approach?
Assume you have a world-model that is nicely factored into spatially localized variables that contain interesting-to-you concepts. (Yes, that's a big assumption, but are there any known difficulties with the proposal if we grant this assumption?)
Pick some... |
16c4a15d-8f46-4052-9344-80cebfc7b760 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Several Topics that May or May Not deserve their own Post
Topic the First - Asking "Why?"
There is a certain cliche of a young child asking "why?", getting an answer, asking "why?" to that, and so on until the adult finally dismisses them out of frustration. And we all smile and laugh at how ignorant the child is and... |
fb9900df-1b0a-41bb-8aad-3b416848626c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ways to prepare to a vastly new world?
I've come to the realization that humanity is at a place similar to where the Aztecs were prior to the arrival of Cortez.
The big difference is that several of us are very confident that Cortez (AGI) will arrive within our lifetimes. I don't know exactly when, and there is a lo... |
3ad3e5fe-ba29-46f9-a824-a6eacaf2b5c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Rationality Merchandise - First Set
As part of my broader project of promoting rationality to a wide audience, we developed clothing with rationality-themed slogans. This apparel is suited for aspiring rationalists to wear to show their affiliation with rationality, to remind themselves and other aspiring rationalists... |
6840733c-91c0-4651-b386-ef8e1ec41bf2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Christiano, Cotra, and Yudkowsky on AI progress
This post is a transcript of a discussion between Paul Christiano, Ajeya Cotra, and Eliezer Yudkowsky on AGI forecasting, following up on Paul and Eliezer's "Takeoff Speeds" discussion.
Color key:
Chat by Paul and Eliezer Chat by Ajeya Inline comments
8. Se... |
d9372fd3-d89d-4cb0-bbe7-e152097d1a72 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The AI in Mary's room
In the Mary's room thought experiment, Mary is a brilliant scientist in a black-and-white room who has never seen any colour. She can investigate the outside world through a black-and-white television, and has piles of textbooks on physics, optics, the eye, and the brain (and everything else of r... |
643eb60d-3a61-4d12-86b5-39922597d1f7 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Epistemic vs. Instrumental Rationality: Case of the Leaky Agent
Suppose you hire a real-estate agent to sell your house. You have to leave town so you give him the authority to negotiate with buyers on your behalf. The agent is honest and hard working. He'll work as hard to get a good price for your house as if he's s... |
74249876-1ce4-4451-af84-83afd601d45e | awestover/filtering-for-misalignment | Redwood Research: Alek's Filtering Results | id: post593
Let’s say you want to use AIs that are capable of causing x-risk. You have a plan that describes how to train, validate and deploy AIs. For example, you could use pretraining+RLHF, check that it doesn’t fall for honeypots and never inserts a single backdoor in your coding validation set, and have humans lo... |
b93a0b5c-e4a5-4254-bba7-344a9addc094 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Small Berkeley Meetup
Discussion article for the meetup : Small Berkeley Meetup
WHEN: 25 April 2012 06:30:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 2071 University Avenue, Berkeley, CA
This will be a small meetup. This will be the last joint dinner with the MPHD folks! We will be meeting at Taiwan Restaurant on University Avenu... |
a85c4863-8da4-4f31-af16-3b803025d3a2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Human Phase Hypothesis (Why We Might Be Alone)
Where are they?
Ever since Man has had eyes with which to look, he has gazed at the stars and wondered about their nature. Where we once wondered how someone could have possibly managed to get up quite so high to light all those campfires, we now wonder how someone co... |
3ae62eba-16d2-4eea-8f52-edd2be0ad582 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intelligence in Economics
Followup to: Economic Definition of Intelligence?
After I challenged Robin to show how economic concepts can be useful in defining or measuring intelligence, Robin responded by - as I interpret it - challenging me to show why a generalized concept of "intelligence" is any use in economics.
... |
4894f92f-efe8-47af-8f17-aacae254b156 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | What colour were the shadows?
The lawn I used to pass on my way to work
(Of course, this isn't any serious question.)
I used to walk to my job along a small park area. It is not fenced off, but there are these strange teeth-like posts around it to keep out cars in the rush hours. I liked to watch the plants and how t... |
bf9d62bb-2e0d-427f-bd7a-fd43db1a185c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Seeking Power is Often Convergently Instrumental in MDPs
Edit, 5/16/23: I think this post is beautiful, correct in its narrow technical claims, and practically irrelevant to alignment. This post presents a cripplingly unrealistic picture of the role of reward functions in reinforcement learning. I expect this post to ... |
702b6246-d17d-4644-8015-b338411932c1 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A Two-Part System for Practical Self-Care
Category: Life optimization
Epistemic status: Seems reasonable, not sure how this could possibly backfire.[1]
----------------------------------------
Sometimes I feel blue. The world turns dull and grey, and I feel like I don’t have the time or energy to accomplish anythin... |
a41745c3-520d-4090-9809-ecd743820a49 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A study on air purifiers and birth weight
Crossposted from Probably Definitely.
I was excited to see this paper on the effects of air purifiers on birth weight. There’s evidence that exposure to pollution during gestation can decrease birth weight, which is associated with worse outcomes later on. So if air purifiers... |
9fc64415-4ef0-49b2-900e-20e61df0f9e5 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Asleep at the Keyboard? Assessing the Security of GitHub Copilot's Code Contributions
Asleep at the Keyboard? Assessing the
Security of GitHub Copilot’s Code Contributions
Hammond Pearce
Department of ECE
New York University
Brooklyn, NY , USA
hammond.pearce@nyu.eduBaleegh Ahmad
Department of ECE
New York University
B... |
14297468-1898-49de-8806-a08d963dc442 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | In order to greatly reduce X-risk, design self-replicating spacecraft without AGI
tl/dr: If we'd build a working self-replicating spacecraft, that'd prove we're past the Great Filter. Therefore, certainty we can do that would eliminate much existential risk. It is a potentially highly visible project that gives public... |
643c03dd-0c7b-44f8-badd-3e2aea99447d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Vitalik: Cryptoeconomics and X-Risk Researchers Should Listen to Each Other More
5 years ago, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin wrote an important but little-known blog post that deserves more visibility, so I'm posting it here. This way, it'll also cross-post to The Nonlinear Library, where it'll be available in po... |
729b4e10-7d3c-44fa-b9f7-f419d29b2131 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Madison: Cached Selves
Discussion article for the meetup : Madison: Cached Selves
WHEN: 02 September 2012 07:00:00PM (-0500)
WHERE: 114 State St., Madison, WI
Cached Selves is a really good post! There's time yet before tomorrow evening, and it's not very long. I think this gives a plausible, partial reduc... |
50c969c6-260c-45dd-96f9-0028e48e8382 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Mental Masturbation and the Intellectual Comfort Zone
I have a particular problem that I like to refer to as Mental Masturbation.
Mental Masturbation: consuming information under the pretense of wanting to learn something useful, but in reality I’m “getting myself off” by indulging in subjects I’m already well-versed... |
b240d10d-0e84-411d-9e79-18b33d77dd68 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AGI will have learnt utility functions
This post is part of the work done at Conjecture.
Thanks to Eric Winsor, Daniel Braun, Andrea Miotti and Connor Leahy for helpful comments and feedback on the draft versions of this post.
There has been a lot of debate and discussion recently in the AI safety community about ... |
919ebbf2-560e-4ae7-b86e-176573beb767 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Luck based medicine: inositol for anxiety and brain fog
Summary: Do you have weird digestive symptoms and anxiety or depression? Consider trying inositol (affiliate link), especially if the symptoms started after antibiotics.
Epistemic status: I did some research on this 10 years ago and didn’t write it down. In the ... |
71d43af4-f861-4dec-ad24-1b314fb90270 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Skilling-up in ML Engineering for Alignment: request for comments
TLDR: Please fill out this survey if you are a potential or established ML Engineer, to let us know your thoughts and preferences on the best way to gain engineering skills.
—
We at Cambridge Effective Altruism CIC are interested in the demand for eng... |
53ab9fb2-bbf3-409c-9396-689168e5b0c2 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | mAIry's room: AI reasoning to solve philosophical problems
This post grew out of a conversation with Laurent Orseau; we were initially going to write a paper for a consciousness/philosophy journal of some sort, but that now seems unlikely, so I thought I'd post the key ideas here.
A summary of this post can be found ... |
4ba983f4-0c2e-4a43-b891-04315c3b7531 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [suggestion] New Meetup Tab
Hi everyone,
I am unsure if I am formatting this correctly or putting it in the appropriate location.
I think that having meetup notifications is a great idea. A new tab (I.e "main", "discussion" and "meetups") would make it easier to find your own meetups, as well as create less clutter... |
b1b55ba9-d1bf-4c4f-9d9e-6e3b9c125305 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/special_docs | Other | The case for strong longtermism
The case for stronglongtermismHilary Greaves and William MacAskillGlobal Priorities Institute | June 2021GPI Working Paper No . 5-2021
The Case for Strong Longtermism1. Introduction22. Precisifying strong longtermism32.1 Axiological strong longtermism (ASL)32.2 Benefit ratio (BR) and A... |
d3cb6ab8-8bcc-4132-9a0f-22207bb010ed | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Social Impact of Trolley Problems
Every few years, someone asks me what I would do to solve a Trolley Problem. Sometimes, they think I’ve never heard of it before—that I’ve never read anything about moral philosophy (e.g. Plato, Foot, Thomson, Graham)—and oh do they have a zinger for me. But for readers who are we... |
038ebd0a-fcb5-4cc2-828f-f31f9cbb7a0e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Safety Research Camp - Project Proposal
AI Safety Research Camp - Project Proposal
→ Give your feedback on our plans below or in the google doc
→ Apply to take part in the Gran Canaria camp on 12-22 April (deadline: 12 February)
→ Join the Facebook group
Summary
Aim: Efficiently launch aspiring AI safety and stra... |
f91e5a5a-d98a-449e-8ba3-068b231b4844 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | AI Self Portraits Aren't Accurate
For a lay audience, but I've seen a surprising number of knowledgeable people fretting over depressed-seeming comics from current systems. Either they're missing something or I am.
Perhaps you’ve seen images like this self-portrait from ChatGPT, when asked to make a comic about its ... |
469d9b08-2ddf-4aef-812d-4bee374d17dd | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why do some kinds of work not feel like work?
A topic often discussed here is how to avoid akrasia/procrastination in order to get on with work. I suggest another possible "workaround" for akrasia is to find work that doesn't feel like work. From personal experience, I know this is possible, because many of my efforts... |
7465723a-8ac9-47e6-8728-26a0d7033ca6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Definitions of “objective” should be Probable and Predictive
Introduction
Core arguments about existential risk from AI misalignment often reason about AI “objectives” to make claims about how they will behave in novel situations. I often find these arguments plausible but not rock solid because it doesn’t seem like t... |
22d34876-03ac-47db-a8a8-dfc93ecf2aaf | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/youtube | Youtube Transcripts | AI safety | Panel Discussion
I have a few questions for our panelists
and then I'll turn to the audience for
questions so you should all be thinking
about what questions you'd like to ask
our terrific panelists do so let me
start with you if we're dealing with
systems that can hurt people or hurt
themselves how do we ... |
cebe6153-ae69-49af-b8e6-623f0e92993a | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Subitisation of Self
Subitising is looking at a collection of objects and, as gestalt, assessing the number present without manual counting. It's about as basic of a System 1/2 split as you can get: children need to count manually, with each tallied increment taking effort; as we get used to seeing small collections o... |
ddcb0d60-431b-41c3-9e44-2e9be7e35817 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Ben Goertzel: What Would It Take to Move Rapidly Toward Beneficial Human-Level AGI?
http://multiverseaccordingtoben.blogspot.com/2010/10/what-would-it-take-to-move-rapidly.html |
c4c1d8d7-345b-473e-9c49-2b7af9f53071 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Measuring Optimization Power
Today's post, Measuring Optimization Power was originally published on 27 October 2008. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> In order to measure the power of an optimization process, we can calculate how improbable it is that its goals would be fulfilled if that process we... |
fa51ab78-36a2-47c5-8da0-e87abf4c3c0d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | "Preparing for a Pandemic: Stage 3: Grow Food if You Can [COVID-19, hort, US, Patreon]"
> This is not the Stage 3 I thought I was going to be writing. That has been re-designated Stage 4, and this is getting abruptly inserted.
>
> Over the last 48 hours, I've become aware of what I just posted about, in "Pay Attentio... |
cc196564-b820-4927-8520-ff6713bd83c6 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Is Belief in Belief a Useful Concept?
I am not sure that it is productive to tell certain people that they do not really believe what they claim to believe, and that they only believe they believe it. I have an alternative suggestion that could possibly be more useful.
Binary Beliefs
It seems that human beings ha... |
0df7ae79-ef70-49f4-84c4-febfa16ccecb | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The Case for Logical Fallacies
In a recent episode of Rationally Speaking, Julia Galef and Matt Yglesias discuss why they incorrectly supported the Iraq war back in 2003. At some point, (I think - I can’t seem to find it in the transcript) Julia mentions that in the absence of good evidence, ad hominem attacks can be ... |
cba7334b-f547-4e93-883d-50a05048dc64 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Q: Experiment on blaming the one you hurt?
For bookwriting - Does anyone have a quick ref for experiments where the subject is forced to hurt someone, and then evaluates that person negatively ("The victim deserved it")? I can't recall the Google keyword; it doesn't show up for "blaming the victim" or "just-world hyp... |
03c01c78-38e8-4dfe-bd48-109a5b61494c | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Attitudes about Applied Rationality
tl;dr: within the LW community, there are many clusters of strategies to achieve rationality: doing basic exercices, using jargon, reading, partaking workshops, privileging object-level activities, and several other opinions like putting an accent on feedback loops, difficult conver... |
9d54ea42-c67c-42be-b605-96049cd15b29 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Conditioning on Observers
Response to Beauty quips, "I'd shut up and multiply!"
Related to The Presumptuous Philosopher's Presumptuous Friend, The Absent-Minded Driver, Sleeping Beauty gets counterfactually mugged
This is somewhat introductory. Observers play a vital role in the classic anthropic thought experiment... |
888b0fc6-316c-41c5-b4db-659cd76683ce | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Intuitions by ML researchers may get progressively worse concerning likely candidates for transformative AI
Epistemic status: Explorative. See results more as a sketch towards a possible issue than a proper derivation of reliable values. Research behind exact numbers is limited and calculations are without error propa... |
ca0c2af0-0546-4e57-84fb-6c8be99a4d02 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | London Rationalist Meetups bikeshed painting thread
Something that came up on each of our three meetups so far was that people want more participation on things like format, place, and meeting times.
Currently these are:
* 5th View cafe on top of Waterstones bookstore near Piccadilly Circus
* First weekend of each... |
98c6a900-0642-4a8e-a4f7-600d6301d272 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Scaling shared model governance via model splitting
1 Introduction
---------------
With an increasing number of deep learning models being deployed in production, questions regarding data privacy and misuse are being raised (Brundage et al., [2018](#bib.bib5)).
The trend of training larger models on more data (LeCu... |
d1a01940-dfae-466b-91fa-e564ec30dbf0 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Probability and Politics
Follow-up to: Politics as Charity
Can we think well about courses of action with low probabilities of high payoffs?
Giving What We Can (GWWC), whose members pledge to donate a portion of their income to most efficiently help the global poor, says that evaluating spending on political advoc... |
55a0dd20-1f42-4b00-a858-de97349e7e71 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Optimal Clothing
I've previously argued that nice clothes are good, actually. But this was an informal claim reflective of the fact that, all else equal, nice clothes are better. But, as elsewhere in life, all else is rarely equal. Choosing clothes and designing a wardrobe is a multivariable optimization problem, and ... |
9d9b89cc-020a-4ee5-b704-716edcf121c3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Structured Transparency: a framework for addressing
use/mis-use trade-offs when sharing information
Andrew Trask together with Ben Garfinkel, Allan Dafoe and Eric Drexler (and others I know less well) released a paper on transparency and infohazards that seemed interesting on a first skim:
> Abstract: Successful col... |
d7d6309d-06d3-4d61-906e-571717208314 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Matching donation fundraisers can be harmfully dishonest.
Anna Salamon, executive director of CFAR (named with permission), recently wrote to me asking for my thoughts on fundraisers using matching donations. (Anna, together with co-writer Steve Rayhawk, has previously written on community norms that promote truth ove... |
bb1b4468-f620-4f42-92cf-e5391162b8bf | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How are people tracking confirmed Coronavirus cases / Coronavirus deaths?
I'm keeping a log of the number of Corronavirus cases (both active and total), in local-areas that I care about.
Currently, I'm using the dashboard put together by John Hopkins Center For Systems Science and Engineering. Every day, I manually o... |
51c95852-6afe-41fe-9edf-039d704fd02e | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Ottawa Meetup - Learning Linear Algebra
Discussion article for the meetup : Ottawa Meetup - Learning Linear Algebra
WHEN: 10 October 2011 07:30:00PM (-0400)
WHERE: K2P 1N1
Type - Skill Training: Learning Linear Algebra - preparation for the Stanford AI Class
Location - Private residence near Elgin & Glads... |
f6c58b68-53f6-40f1-836b-dc706aac80ad | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Resolving internal conflicts requires listening to what parts want
In the first four posts of this sequence, I outlined how fear can lead to internal conflict. In the next four posts I'll explore and defend the following claim: we can resolve internal conflicts by understanding what underlying fears are driving a conf... |
a93f993b-eaef-4b43-8a11-447c68ee0e6d | LDJnr/LessWrong-Amplify-Instruct | LessWrong | "Many AI safety researchers these days are not aiming for a full solution to AI safety (e.g., the classic Friendly AI), but just trying to find good enough partial solutions that would buy time for or otherwise help improve global coordination on AI research (which in turn would buy more time for AI safety work), or tr... |
aada3208-9731-42b7-b4d7-001541b7af01 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Short Talks
Discussion article for the meetup : San Francisco Meetup: Short Talks
WHEN: 03 April 2017 06:15:00PM (-0700)
WHERE: 1655 Mission St, San Francisco, CA 94103-2413, United States
We’ll be meeting to give and listen to very short talks!
We’ll do 7-minute lightning talks with... |
f7935730-0761-4705-88fe-e46d2a8cc85f | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Some Simple Observations Five Years After Starting Mindfulness Meditation
BACKGROUND
I learned the basics of mindfulness meditation in April 2013, which was five years ago to the month.
The type of meditation I learned and would go on to practice would be closing one's eyes and concentrating on one's breath.
The go... |
b39256c0-15d2-4f76-80af-b78616451237 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Why Democracy?
I am an avid and radical believer in the systemic property of democracy. But if you had asked me (before I wrote this, anyway) why I hold such a strong and deeply-held belief, I would have been uncomfortable with the amount of cultural conditioning that would come to mind. I grew up in in the West where... |
f71023a8-8be3-41e8-b0d7-cbda502d0571 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Use conditional probabilities to clear up error rate confusion
It's common in my part of the data science world to speak of model accuracy for classifiers in terms of four quantities: True Positive Rate (AKA Sensitivity, Recall), False Positive Rate, True Negative Rate (AKA Specificity), and False Negative Rate. But a... |
49f4d1ee-bf07-4caa-9b05-5cb43eecb755 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | D&D.Sci August 2021: The Oracle and the Monk
You are Oeis the Wise, professional Oracle. Your uncanny ability to predict how lists of whole numbers will continue – and only how lists of whole numbers will continue – creates infrequent but intense demand for your counsel: you usually leave your mountain home about once... |
c9874661-b323-47d0-a7e9-eb2c3f53efe3 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [Link] Dilbert author tries to try
Scott Adams, author of Dilbert, believes that trying to try is more effective than trying:
> ...my system is that I attempt to exercise five times a week around lunchtime. And I always allow myself the option of driving to the gym then turning around and going home. What I've discov... |
94dd40c3-4131-46b9-a776-52d8ac90dfb8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | [SEQ RERUN] Focus Your Uncertainty
Today's post, Focus Your Uncertainty, was originally published on 05 August 2007. A summary (taken from the LW wiki):
> If you are paid for post-hoc analysis, you might like theories that "explain" all possible outcomes equally well, without focusing uncertainty. But what if you don... |
6871969d-7943-4a59-8181-558448249936 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open thread, Nov. 16 - Nov. 22, 2015
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here.
----------------------------------------
Notes for future OT posters:
1. Please add the 'open_thread' tag.
2. Check if there is an active Open Thread before posting a new one. (Immediately... |
72f4b18c-0c12-4537-ae94-de16a94b53d4 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Meetup : Test%20meetup%20please%20ignore
Discussion article for the meetup : Test%20meetup%20please%20ignore
WHEN: 27 March 2017 11:18:40AM (-0700)
WHERE: antartica
sorry
Discussion article for the meetup : Test%20meetup%20please%20ignore |
2a7d14c1-0b3e-48a2-ab69-2965e26371be | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Sequence Reread: Fake Beliefs [plus sequence spotlight meta]
A couple months ago the LessWrong team started putting Sequence Spotlights at the top of the home page, to give people reasonably bite-sized chunks of canonical LessWrong content to read (or reread). i.e, this thing here:
I thought I'd experiment with makin... |
ebf8212b-4d98-4cec-94f9-77afa359469d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | A belief propagation graph
I drew an illustration of belief propagation graph for the AI risk, after realizing that this is difficult to convey in words. Similar graphs are applicable to many other issues.
The issue, in brief: Ultra low latency (i.e. low signal delay) propagation from biases to AI risks, slightl... |
f5ac9207-8705-424b-9ff0-916c1a75f1ce | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | November 2016 Newsletter
| |
| --- |
|
[Post-fundraiser update](https://intelligence.org/2016/11/11/post-fundraiser-update/): Donors rallied late last month to get us most of the way to our first fundraiser goal, but we ultimately fell short. This means that we’ll need to make up the remaining $160k gap over the nex... |
031f21da-aea5-4aaf-af13-52dca974d35d | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/blogs | Blogs | Discovering when an agent is present in a system
#### New, formal definition of agency gives clear principles for causal modelling of AI agents and the incentives they face
We want to build safe, aligned artificial general intelligence (AGI) systems that pursue the intended goals of its designers. [Causal influence d... |
6e033c0f-faf3-4c4f-956a-62aa5a7d7afe | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Chapter 97: Roles, Pt 8
For the second time that day, Harry's eyes filled with tears. Heedless of the puzzled eyes of the Ravenclaws in the common room, he reached out to the silver creature which Draco Malfoy had sent, cradling it in his arms like a live thing; and stumbled off in the direction of his dorm room, head... |
3e07b3bf-888c-486a-9f0c-2cea34e7d5b8 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The First-Person Perspective Is Not A Random Sample
This is another attempt to promote my solution to anthropic paradoxes (perspective-based reasoning, PBR).
Quick Recap
In a previous post, I suggested the problem in anthropics is treating it as an observation selection effect (OSE). I.E. considering the first-perso... |
8302ee7b-9f12-4c2d-bfdc-b663ef1fa9ca | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/arxiv | Arxiv | Towards a Human-like Open-Domain Chatbot
1 Introduction
---------------
The ability to converse freely in natural language is one of the hallmarks of human intelligence, and is likely a requirement for true artificial intelligence. In order to explore this aspect of intelligence, many researchers are working on ope... |
f87f0d96-a459-4b0e-bd60-a4c9572610c3 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | [Intro to brain-like-AGI safety] 15. Conclusion: Open problems, how to help, AMA
15.1 Post summary / Table of contents
=====================================
This is the final post of the [*“Intro to brain-like-AGI safety”* post series](https://www.alignmentforum.org/s/HzcM2dkCq7fwXBej8)! Thanks for reading this far!
... |
39d31937-2274-4b66-8d11-3b671e960850 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | How to intro Effective Altruism
Hey,
So I am about to go be one of the camp leaders on a winter camp of a youth movement. I have been given the opportunity to plan a set of late evening activities for the older kids (targeted at the 13-16 year olds). The format of this will be 30 minute sessions over three nights whe... |
7f2b6a4e-0f4e-43c0-a560-4ec50784a102 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Raytheon to Develop Rationality-Training Games
http://www.networkworld.com/community/blog/raytheon-gets-105m-develop-serious-games |
d3b2d5e8-2556-4831-93be-d6148c3cdcea | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Open Thread for February 3 - 10
If it's worth saying, but not worth its own post (even in Discussion), then it goes here. |
85f8bb9a-d960-423c-a739-7325c0d48e46 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The worst trolley problem in the world
We all know the standard trolley problem by now. A runaway trolley with five people trapped on it is on a track that's going to send it off a cliff, killing everyone on board. There's a lever that can send it onto a side track, though, that will result in the trolley stopping sa... |
8b707828-79eb-4e4b-a460-28543fd5eae9 | StampyAI/alignment-research-dataset/alignmentforum | Alignment Forum | What’s the backward-forward FLOP ratio for Neural Networks?
**Summary:**
------------
1. *Classic settings*, i.e. deep networks with convolutional layers and large batch sizes, ***almost always have backward-forward FLOP ratios close to 2:1***.
2. Depending on the following criteria we can encounter **ratios between ... |
f59de30d-1f62-4e55-8bcf-07ef522f481b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | On Chesterton's Fence
Let's think of the evolution as a conservative force for a bit.
The common narrative of evolution is that it is that great force of progress, optimizing the organisms, casting away inefficiencies, multiplying the species, and generally, driving living things to become more complex, starting from... |
e95edd4e-52ad-441b-b6c9-ca0be3f3718b | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Debate AI and the Decision to Release an AI
One of the most difficult questions that we will face in the future is whether or not to release an AI. One obvious approach is to ask the AI what would happen if we were to release it, but we might worry that it would mislead us. So perhaps it'd be better instead to have tw... |
815a8365-492c-4abe-8336-c76bb7d30a77 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | The possibility of no good amazing forecasters
When somebody correctly predicts an event, how much more should we trust this person? What if they make two correct predictions in a row?
Counter-intuitively, to answer this question, we need to know how many people actually were making predictions about these events, an... |
4549aa26-7332-4b69-9400-452d85989209 | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Model evals for dangerous capabilities
Testing an LM system for dangerous capabilities is crucial for assessing its risks.
Summary of best practices
Best practices for labs evaluating LM systems for dangerous capabilities:
* Publish results
* Publish questions/tasks/methodology (unless that's dangerous, e.g. CBRN... |
d70715c3-0de6-45df-8646-749574d4bf5d | trentmkelly/LessWrong-43k | LessWrong | Estimating the Number of Players from Game Result Percentages
Recently I got into the daily word puzzle game Couch Potato Salad. At the end of the game, it shows the percent of players who “nailed”, ”sailed”, ”prevailed”, ”exhaled” and ”failed”. Once, I played the game shortly after midnight when the new puzzle become... |
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